The Dodgers were once again a tier-one baseball club in 2021, but their streak of eight consecutive division titles came to an end, and their efforts to repeat were quashed in the NLCS.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Trevor Bauer, SP: $70.67MM through 2023
- David Price, SP/RP: $32MM in 2022
- Mookie Betts, OF: $337.5MM through 2032 (including $120MM in deferred payments from 2032 to 2044)
- Justin Turner, 3B: $22MM through 2022 (includes $2MM buyout on $16MM mutual option for 2023)
- Chris Taylor, IF/OF: $60MM through 2025 (includes $4MM buyout for $12MM team option for 2026)
- AJ Pollock, OF: $13MM (with a $10MM player options for 2023)
- Blake Treinen, RP: $9.5MM (includes $1.5MM buyout on $8MM team option for 2023)
- Max Muncy, 1B/2B: $14.5MM (includes $1.5MM buyout on $13.5MM team option for 2023)
- Andrew Heaney, SP: $8.5MM
- Daniel Hudson, RP: $7MM (includes $1MM buyout on $6.5MM team option for 2023)
- Walker Buehler, SP: $4.25MM (arb eligible again in 2023 and 2024)
- Tommy Kahnle, RP: $3.75MM
- Austin Barnes, C: $2.65MM
- 2022 commitments: $184.4MM
- Total long-term commitments: $585.32MM
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Trea Turner – $19.8MM
- Cody Bellinger – $16.1MM
- Julio Urias – $8.8MM
- Caleb Ferguson – $800K
Option Decisions
- Declined $12MM option for RHP Joe Kelly, opting instead to pay a $4MM buyout
- Bauer declined an option to trigger an opt-out clause
Free Agents
- Albert Pujols, Cole Hamels, Kenley Jansen, Danny Duffy, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, Steven Souza Jr., Corey Seager, Corey Knebel, Andrew Vasquez (non-tendered), Jimmy Nelson, Sheldon Neuse (currently designated for assignment), Joe Kelly
The career talent present on the Dodgers’ list of departing free agents is somewhat remarkable. It’s also somewhat misleading, as Pujols, Kershaw, Duffy, Hamels, et al, aren’t exactly in their prime, nor were they inner circle contributors to the club in 2021. Kershaw did his part, contributing 22 starts with a solid, if not Kershawian 3.55 ERA/3.00 FIP across 121 2/3 innings. That places him third on the team in innings, so he did his par. That said, by the time the playoffs rolled around, his year was done.
Bottom line: there are significant losses represented on that list, most notably thus far, Seager, Scherzer, and to a lesser extent, Knebel. Seager seemed destined to walk after the acquisition of Trea Turner at the trade deadline, though without him they’ll be pressured to pony up for the speedy ex-National, who is a free agent after next season. President of Baseball Ops Andrew Friedman values flexibility in his roster construction, and that’s evident in his handling of Seager. We could see a similar saga play itself out next winter, as the Dodgers could turn to Gavin Lux and/or Jacob Amaya rather than commit to a mega-contract for Turner.
But that’s tomorrow’s problem. For now, Trea Turner, Lux, Justin Turner, and Max Muncy make up a star-studded, if injury-prone starting infield. The health and age questions surrounding this group made the re-signing of Chris Taylor all the more crucial. With Taylor back in the fold for a reasonable $15MM per, the Dodgers can feel relatively stable with their infield group. Matt Beaty and Zach McKinstry are bench options on the Major League roster, while Cody Bellinger and Mookie Betts give manager Dave Roberts extended flexibility because of their ability and willingness to move to the dirt on occasion.
All that said, there’s still room for another bat. Assuming there will be a designated hitter in the National League, the Dodgers could add a third baseman while allowing J. Turner to age gracefully into a bat-only role. Barring the addition of one of the star level bats remaining in free agency (think Carlos Correa, Kris Bryant, Freddie Freeman), the Dodgers could still make a play for a veteran utility man, who wouldn’t have to play every day, but could capably pinch-hit and fill-in at multiple positions around the diamond. To their benefit, having T. Turner, Taylor, and Lux means they’re probably covered at shortstop, which frees Friedman to lean more liberally in the direction of a bench bat. Speculatively speaking, someone like Asdrubal Cabrera could be a fit, but they could also bring back Albert Pujols or look at other veteran minimum types while waiting for youngsters like Amaya, Michael Busch, or Miguel Vargas to play themselves into a role.
In the outfield, Betts, Bellinger, and AJ Pollock line up as the opening day starters, but they could absolutely look to add another bat here as well. Taylor and Lux can play the outfield, as can Beaty and others on the roster, but Friedman is more likely to have too many options than not enough. Don’t be surprised if there’s another name added to this mix after the lockout.
The big picture of the position player side of things is that they aren’t as deep as in years past, but they’re still in better shape than most. And yet, if they’re looking to grow the overall depth on this club, there are arguably more bats available in free agency than arms, so we could see the Dodgers overindulge on this side of the ball to compensate for the losses on the pitching side.
Because for the first time in years really, there are reasons to wonder about the overall quality of the Dodgers’ pitching staff.
The rotation is the biggest area of concern right now. After all, the two most surprising decisions from the Dodgers so far this winter both relate to the rotation. Not issuing a qualifying offer to Kershaw definitely zagged from expectations, as did their not making a bigger push to retain Scherzer. Kershaw could still return, but if not, the Dodgers’ rotation is thinner than it’s been in years. Losing Kershaw would be a bigger blow than it’s being perceived right now, in part because Kershaw’s “legacy value” took a big hit by not being anywhere near the mound during the playoffs, and even in the regular season, he fell from the divine heights of prior seasons. But let’s not diminish the man: He posted 2.1 rWAR/3.4 fWAR and finished 11th overall by FIP among pitchers with at least 100 innings. In fact, by FIP alone, the Dodgers would be losing the 10th (Scherzer) and 11th (Kershaw) starters in the Majors. Sure, they got just 33 starts from the pair, so we can almost count them as a single starter, but they make a darn good one that the Dodgers will miss.
Also on the positive side of the ledger, the Dodgers still have Walker Buehler and Julio Urias as a tremendous, in-their-prime duo. In fact, those two finished just behind Scherzer/Kershaw as 14th and 15th in the Majors by FIP. But the Dodgers had a front-row seat to the Padres’ horror-show second half. Two starters – even stars – is not enough to helm a postseason rotation.
If Kershaw does ultimately re-sign, I’ll give a ’hear-hear’ – but if he doesn’t, they did, at least, strike quickly to add former Angels’ southpaw Andrew Heaney to the starting mix. Heaney struggled mightily after a deadline trade to the Yankees, but the Dodgers believe in his upside. Said Friedman, “He’s got really strong ingredients in place, and there are a few different levers we feel like we can potentially pull with him that he’s bought into and is eager to dive in on.” Despite his long-time reputation as a potential quality starter, Heaney’s 1.9 rWAR back in 2015 marked a career-high. Entering his age-31 season, it’s not impossible to imagine a re-brand in the mold of Wade Miley or, sure, dream big, Charlie Morton, but that’s a pipe dream – until it’s not.
Dustin May has a bright future, but he’s not due to return from Tommy John surgery until the second half of the season at the earliest. Tony Gonsolin slots in as the number four behind Heaney right now, but the 27-year-old hasn’t been trusted to hold down a regular rotation spot before, and solid as he’s been, the Dodgers clearly like him in a swing role. Fangraphs lists David Price as the fifth starter right now, and though the 36-year-old may very well end up in that role, it would be surprising if both Price and Gonsolin are among their starting five on opening day.
Rotation depth is more important now than ever, and though the Dodgers seem to have lost ground in the star power department, they did make a couple of low-key pickups during the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft that deepens their pool of potential arms. Carson Fulmer was once the eighth overall pick of the draft, and though it’s been a while since his mound work merited national attention, he is definitely worth a minor league contract. The same can be said for Jon Duplantier, who even more recently graced top prospect lists while coming up through the Diamondbacks’ system. Both are entering their age-28 season, an age at which Jake Arrieta still had a 5.23 career ERA. Neither Fulmer nor Duplantier has been even that good, but there’s no risk here for the Dodgers, and they need the depth.
They expressed some interest in the Reds’ available starters, but nothing came together before the lockout. That could still happen, or they could explore a deal for one or more of Oakland’s arms: Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, et al. Frankly, it was surprising that they didn’t make more of a push to bring back Scherzer. Still, even without a major addition, it’s worth remembering that the goal isn’t to build out a starting five – the goal is to build an organization capable of competing for 162 games.
It’s worth wondering if Scherzer’s contract just became too rich for Friedman’s tastes. On the one hand, that’s absurd, nothing and nobody should be too rich for the Dodgers. But practically speaking, the Dodgers ran out the highest payroll in baseball in 2021, and they might want to see how the now collective bargaining agreement changes luxury tax rules before barreling ahead into repeater tax territory. Fangraphs has their current 2022 payroll at ~$232MM, so their bed may already be made, but it’s only sensible to want the exact terms of the arrangement. Aside from the aforementioned Kershaw, most of the free agent starting pitching talent signed prior to the lockout. The Dodgers could still consider Carlos Rodon, whose health history is likely to lead to the type of shorter-term requirement the Dodgers prefer. Indeed, when the MLBTR staff was debating Rodon’s potential contract, they kicked around some kind of Bauer-lite high-dollar three-year arrangement.
Speaking of Bauer, last we saw of the divisive right-hander, he had been on extended administrative leave due to unresolved sexual assault allegations. As of now, it’s entirely unclear if he will be available to pitch in 2022 (or even if the Dodgers would welcome him back). MLB’s recent ruling on Marcell Ozuna’s violation of the MLB – MLBPA Joint Domestic Violence, Sexual Assault and Child Abuse Policy suggests the league office is not yet ready to levy significant penalties for players whose criminal court cases are dropped.
Still, Bauer’s case is more public than perhaps any prior violation, and one would expect greater backlash upon his return to the field. So long as the Dodgers remain responsible for paying the $70MM+ still owed the right-hander, they would be hard-pressed not to allow him to suit up, especially given their need on the hill. If, however, they are somehow let out of their contractual obligation to Bauer, they could allocate that money elsewhere – though any replacement would most likely be a downgrade from Bauer’s significant on-field potential. Needless to say, the cloud of these proceedings will hang over the Dodgers for some time.
In the bullpen, Joe Kelly and Corey Knebel have been replaced by Daniel Hudson, while long-time closer Kenley Jansen remains a free agent. Blake Treinen was amazing last season (1.99 ERA/2.88 FIP across 72 1/3 innings), Hudson has plenty of high-leverage experience, and it’s easy to dream on Brusdar Graterol’s potential, but the relief corps is very much a work-in-progress. After 12 years at the back of the Dodgers’ bullpen, the club may finally allow Jansen to walk away.
Whether they add starters, relievers, or the modern type of arm that can move between roles, they’re going to need more pitchers. They had 11 pitchers post more than half a win by fWAR in 2021, six of whom are either already gone or current free agents (Kershaw, Scherzer, Kelly, Nelson, Knebel, Jansen) and a seventh is Bauer. No need to panic: that’s a backward-looking approach, they can afford to print new jerseys, and the offseason isn’t over. But there’s work to be done.
In terms of the free agents available, Kershaw may be the best starter available, with Rodon and his checkered past also in the running. Other lesser names are available as well, perhaps led by Yusei Kikuchi. Many of the available free agent starters aren’t likely to ignite the fanbase, but the Dodgers have spun straw into gold before.
The relief market has a bit more juice with Jansen only one name among many that can be first division arms: Ryan Tepera, Andrew Chafin, Collin McHugh, Kelly, Nelson, and Adam Ottavino, to name a few. There’s still a chess move or two that the Dodgers could make without horribly overburdening their payroll.
Internally, Mitch White could find himself in a bigger role, Tommy Kahnle is coming back from Tommy John, and prospects like Ryan Pepiot and Michael Grove aren’t far from seeing daylight (Grove is on the 40-man roster). There is some growth potential, but if nothing else, Buehler and Urias need to take over as the faces of Dodger pitching. Then again, it wouldn’t be hard to argue that they already are.
All told, while they await resolution on the Bauer and CBA fronts, the Dodgers had to charge ahead, thought they did so with a relatively quiet first half of the offseason. They made some minor additions, adding outfielder Jason Martin and right-hander Beau Burrows on minor league deals to build out their depth. But they also dealt away outfielders Billy McKinney and Zach Reks for cash considerations. Both had been designated for assignment as a means of being removed from the 40-man roster. Sheldon Neuse seemed like a classic Dodger project when he was acquired from the A’s, but he’s now in DFA purgatory until the lockout ends.
The Dodgers will be one of the more interesting teams to watch coming out of the lockout. Given their status as the top paying luxury tax team, the particulars of the new CBA could affect them more than any other club. Add in Bauer’s situation and Kershaw’s free agency, and the Dodgers are facing more uncertainty than they’ve seen in years. That said, their financial might is as great as ever, and even depleted by their free agent losses, they have one of the most talented rosters in the game. They also play in one of the most competitive divisions in the sport. With the Giants and Padres as formidable as ever, there’s no room to take a step back. After all, even with Betts, Buehler, Urias, the Turners, Taylor, Muncy, Bellinger, Will Smith, and more, the fact is, the Dodgers aren’t the champs anymore.
That’s a whole lot of words to just say “yea.”
Don’t read it then cause we all knew the dodgers had the money and depth
More than money involved now. It’s penalties for staying over the cap yearly and if a handful of low market teams continue having their way? Those penalties will get worse. If have it right.. 3y straight over the cap by like 20m on y3 and go down 10 spots on 1st round pick? Lose several $$ on IFA also. Happened to Boston in 2019.
I see LA in kind of a pickle just keeping some of the young talent they have, forget the aging vets and not trying to antagonize anyone. It’s the system which is broken by penalizing teams that spend. find it hard to understand how a union, which calls itself powerful would ever agree to such terms while allowing poor market teams to go around spending nearly nothing continually, year in and year out.
If the league isn’t competitive, the sport and everyone in it suffers
If they have the money for a $280M payroll, then they have the money to pay another $33M in tax.
I’m a RS fan. If we cannot beat out TB, it is because they are operating smarter, no because we have to pay a nickel & dime tax.
I’m also a conservative, but you rich people have to stop complaining about paying a little extra. The only reason you have to pay more, is because you started with more.
Cosmo22 hours ago
If the league isn’t competitive, the sport and everyone in it suffers
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I’m being honest here. I don’t understand why the richer teams don’t want anything to level the playing field. I’ve said it before that I like rooting for a team with money, but I don’t want the league to be nothing more than the richest team wins.
“The Dodgers aren’t the champs anymore.” Yup
Staying over yearly? They were over for just the first time this year in 3 seasons. But don’t let facts detract from narratives John
@JohnSilver the league isn’t balanced for small market teams to spend stupid money. Reds are one of the most recent smaller market teams who went spending and had to quickly trade off players. Small market teams can not go on a massive spending spree and expect to stay “above water”. Pittsburgh Pirates went bankrupt in 1996 because they did spend tons of money on players. It wasn’t until 2004 that the Pirates paid all debts back and was in the “green” again. There is not a single small market who can spend without developing players. Rays are a testament of getting players to stay competitive and departing players in trades before their value is gone without spending more money. A’s are another small market team who spends less and in the thick of things almost yearly. Don’t criticize small market teams for how they do their business. There is no balance for rich and poor teams. It’s exactly like that, “rich” and “poor” teams. There will not be an expansion in baseball with its current economic platform. I have two words, Salary Cap
You’re a Republican who believes in rich people paying their fair share so explain why so many of you guys vote against your own interests for example tax cuts for the rich.
Not sure if this was addressed to me, but I’m in the mood for a rant. The only thing I disagreed with Trump on was the tax cut. We didn’t need one.
But the Left did the same thing when Obama was president. The Bush tax cuts were supposed to expire.
We should never incur additional deficits via tax cuts or increased spending, unless we are in a recession. All we are doing is getting a loan from our kids and grandchildren, and we don’t need it.
CJIK: this is exactly why everyone hops up on the top of your posts. Nobody wants to talk about “that’s a whole lot of words to just say ‘yea.”
Then you call Francys “attention seeking.” What’s more attention seeking than trying your best to be at the top of the top of the list and post something meaningless because you didn’t even take the time to read the article before you posted? I just tried it your way. If I had ignored the useless words you said and replied to them like they shouldn’t even exist (which they shouldn’t) I might have actually been able to have an intelligent conversation with someone. You don’t even read the article before you make it so obvious how eager you are to get attention from making the top post. You attention horse! Or did I confuse the letter S with a W that belonged somewhere else in that word?
Really weak of you to try and call someone else out for something you do more than anyone.
I suggest if anyone wants to have a conversation about something they just reply to his comments with zero acknowledgement that he even made a comment. You don’t even have to spend the time to make sure you’re at the top. “Chipper Jones illegitimate kid” does that for you. He’s such an attention horse he will post the top comment before he even reads the article. Then it becomes more fun because when you ignore him he just gets louder and craves more attention by calling out everyone that ignores him as wanting what he clearly lives for… attention.
Don’t be upset or take it personal. He’s just that way. If you totally ignore him but reply to all his comments it will be very fun. I promise you.
Big mad
@ Please, Hammer. Don’t hurt ’em;
He also likes his own posts.
#1 Troll on the board. Has numerous aliases.
I can’t remember but didn’t the Red Sox agree to pay half of Prices salary? For some reason I thought the dodgers were on the hook for 16 mil a year for Price.
Yes, Boston is on the hook for $16M of Price’s $32M this year (last year of the deal)
The $32 million listed is Price’s full salary paid by both teams. I kind of think it would have made more sense if they included some subtext that stated the Dodgers only had to pay half of that though. I think he might count the full $32 million against the Dodgers luxury tax number though so that could explain it. Can any of you more versed MLB fans verify that for us though? I haven’t followed the details like that in baseball long enough to know. If a player (David Price) is traded and his original team agrees to pay half his salary do the 2 teams split the luxury tax obligation? Does Price count toward $16 million of the Red Sox luxury tax number every year or do the Dodgers take the full $32 million even though they are only paying half of that?
Bellinger agreed to a deal, no? I thought the two settled on $17M for next season.
I read the same thing. On a side note, no way should the Dodgers be able to get out of paying Bauer if the lower payroll Braves still have to pay Ozuna. That would look like some serious bias right there. Ozuna was charged with multiple criminal charges including a felony at one point. I’m not defending either person but I haven’t heard of Bauer ever even being charged with something like that. If a lower payroll team is forced to suck it out and pay Ozuna, the Dodgers should still be stuck with the bill too. I have no personal desire to see either man get paid but you can’t help one team’s payroll situation while punishing another team. Regardless of what gets dropped, Ozuna actually at least being charged with a felony has to be considered a bigger deal than Bauer being charged with nothing. If Bauer catches a charge maybe that could change but until that happens he should still hurt the Dodgers payroll just like Ozuna hurts the Braves.
MLB has to decide how many games Bauer is going to be suspended, players don’t get paid on suspended games, just like Ozuna did not got paid wile suspended, this has nothing to do with big or small markets.
Ozuna was “suspended” 113 games. At least that was the number of games he missed during the investigation. He still got paid for 93 of those games. The suspension of pay was for 20 games and that’s because he was charged with a violent felony. If a violent felony charge equals 20 games of suspended pay than zero charges has to equal zero games of suspended pay.
Any updates on the Bauer situation? If he still is being withheld from playing, that contract could be the worst in MLB history… truly an albatross that will limit what LAD can spend on their rotation.
The restraining order was dissolved as he “did not pose a threat to his accuser.” The case is still under investigation and the DA has yet to bring charges against him. Regardless of what happens legally, it will be hard for him to suit up in LA again. Although fans have a pretty short memory with domestic violence as long as their team is winning.
I personally can’t stand Trevor Bauer but if there are no charges approved how can people simply assume he is guilty?? He certainly wouldn’t be the first high profile person “possibly” targeted in an unfair situation like this . Just saying.
You are right in the big picture that if all is fine with the league, he deserves to play. The fact you personally can’t stand him means squat to anyone here.
Randy, what you’re missing is that the behavior he’s admitted to, whether or not it was illegal, is so reprehensible that it warrants him being banished. Not everything reprehensible is also illegal. He’s admitted to enough that I doubt he ever plays again and he shouldn’t, although without a conviction there’s probably no way to void his contract.
Cosmo211 mins ago
Randy, what you’re missing is that the behavior he’s admitted to, whether or not it was illegal, is so reprehensible that it warrants him being banished.
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That’s exactly why Cleon Jones had to publicly apologize. Of course, his reprehensible behavior was getting caught hooking up with a white woman.
And not so long ago, reprehensible behavior involved two guys getting caught together.
The point being is that it is a slippery slope when deciding on what two consulting adults are allowed to do. Being gay is now acceptable under the philosophy that they can do whatever they mutually agree to.
I am not sure that it justifies him being banished but I would sure like to see a couple year suspension as commensurate with his admitted misconduct. He will never pitch for Dodgers again. Even if the Dodgers have to negotiate a deal where he gets paid for two of the three years in his contract and then gets released. I think he will ultimately plea to a lesser crime based on the media reports that I have read but I have no inside knowledge.
I wouldn’t compare seriously injuring a woman during sex to the Cleon Jones situation or any other so, no, it is not a slippery slope. He beats up women to get off, consensual or not, it’s reprehensible. The slippery slope argument has no merit and there is no comparison. Cleon Jones didn’t injure anyone in your scenario. Comparing hurting a woman to get off with interracial dating? I don’t buy it, not one bit. Bauer’s behavior was way over the limits of acceptable behavior, no gray area whatsoever and it’s not something we will eventually realize is actually ok.
@MannyBeingMVP Seriously kid, what in Bauer’s personality or anything he has said makes you think he would plead guilty to anything? Or allow the Dodgers to withhold any of his pay minus whatever he loses from the inevitable suspension?
What happens between consenting adults between the sheets should remain their business not the leagues.
Not if someone gets injured. Being a sadist is not something that I think is ok and once it becomes known it’s acceptable for people to want to avoid a person who injured others for pleasure. Violence “between the sheets” that leads to injury, consenting or not is a serious matter open to sensible judgment. Injuring people, even on request, is reprehensible.
You *can* assume he’s guilty because he admitted that what she said happened did happen. It’s just he thinks it was consensual. But there’s a long history in the US that says that you *cannot* consent to assault. So him punching her in the head, choking her out, and penetrating her anus while she slept is by itself enough to justify a punishment. Especially when she says she didn’t consent.
You can take Bauer at his word that it was pre planned and consensual (you should not) and still come away with a conclusion that he is guilty of a crime and should be punished accordingly.
you *cannot* consent to assault.
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Just for fun, check out how many people have inflicted pain. According to Wiki, it is about 4-5% of the people. That’s a heck of a lot more prisons to build.
Of course, the key is going to be consent. One can consent to light spankings, but not to getting punched out. But if the DA comes to the conclusion that there was consent, the the MLB will be in the position of deciding what adults are allowed to do, and perhaps even more important, what women are allowed to consent to.
The whole thing is he’s rubbed people the wrong way and narced on players for cheating at least twice I know of. Whistle blower being thrown under the bus.
Was this actually domestic violence? I’m not disparaging these women. I don’t know them. But if they were subs looking for a Dom for a hookup they may have requested rough sex. Did they set limits? We don’t know because we were not there. Also if a woman is a sub she should only pursue sex with a Dom she trusts. Putting that much trust into a “fling” is a no no in the Dom/sub community. I don’t know all the details about the case so shout me down if I’m talking out my rear.
Oddly specific, I must say. You’re not wrong. A very detailed post that doesn’t even come close to alluding to baseball.
Hulk, we don’t know, but the legality or even the actuality matters very little to the court of public opinion and that is what I was referring to when anticipating the public reaction to Bauer.
This is kind of what I was saying right above this comment. I would have posted it below but I didn’t see this yet and I was also replying to the other comment at the same time.
Based on what I can tell the Dodgers have no ground to stand on when it comes to them being able to not pay Bauer. Maybe they avoid the first 20 game checks of next season but that would be the most and even that’s a stretch.
I started following both the Bauer and Ozuna cases at the time they developed. The Braves lost Ozuna for 113 days and they only get out of paying him for 20 days. The other 93 are just burned and Ozuna is eligible to play opening day next season. The Braves are also on the hook for the remainder $53 million or so of Ozuna’s 4 year contract as well as his 5th year buyout.
Unless Bauer actually gets charged with something the Dodgers will have to pay at least all of his contract minus 20 games. Probably his entire contract period.
Ozuna eventually went through a diversion program and had all his charges dropped. He was initially charged with at least 3 criminal charges and one of those was a felony. Bauer has never been charged with anything. There is no way MLB can fairly say Bauer never even being charged is somehow a worse offense than Ozuna being charged with a felony.
If Bauer is eventually charged this could all change. That would be fair. Until that happens he has to be considered a lower offender than Ozuna who was charged. Maybe not by Dodgers standard but definitely by MLB standards. MLB cannot cut the Dodgers payroll a $70 million break for having a controversial player when they make the Braves pay virtually the entire contract of a player who was actually charged with being a criminal.
If the Ozuna punishment said anything it’s that the Dodgers are stuck paying Bauer unless he actually gets charged. Based on Ozuna they are probably still stuck even if he does get charged. They can choose not to play him. They still have to pay him.
What complicates matters for LAD is that $70M still owed to Bauers is preventing them from signing another top line SP – probably prevented them from bringing Scherzer back. And they have a real need in their rotation. Does Friedman plug him into the rotation for the next two years, or does he release Bauers and eat that contract?
Pardon me, but it’s never all that complicated when a team can spend ~$300MM and barely blink an eye.
Big changes need made to the financial structures of the game over the next generation or two of time or this game will be completely dominated by 8-10 superteams, with continued falling ratings & disintegrated fan bases, the joke of the sporting world.
The Angels might have had the worst contract with Pujols.
There is zero chance the Dodgers pay Trevor Bauer 70 million to not play for them. Bauer has enough time served to where if he gives back the money for whatever suspension he gets, he could play as early as opening day. It’s not guaranteed to play out this way, but its looking likely. The LA Times can pour out all the outrage in the world. If Bauer is not charged, and his suspension is served, the team isnt flushing his contract down the toilet. Its completely unreasonable to expect. Same with Ozuna. Obviously the teams wish they had a mulligan but they don’t. I predict both of them in uniform for their teams next season. People who expect the teams to just take the contract hit are being ridiculous. They aren’t the ones who have to give the player 30 million a year.
Actually people keep saying the Dodgers will be able to void Bauer’s contract based on some morals c;lause. Which isn’t going to actually happen.
That too. Do people really think one of the most powerful unions in the world has something where you can void a contract anything short of a criminal conviction?
Even with a conviction they can’t void it (Vazquez)
Bauer won’t even have to give back the money. Unlike Bauer, Ozuna actually caught charges and only had to give back 20 games worth of money for the 113 games he missed. And he still gets to play opening day.
Sorry for the terrible run on sentence you are about to encounter but it’s late and I’m tired:
Like I said before, if 3+ criminal charges (including a felony which potentially carried a multiple decade prison sentence) results in only having to pay back 20 games worth of checks you already missed and keep the other 93 game checks while still being eligible for opening day, what’s the penalty for zero charges?
I’m guessing the penalty has to be just that. Zero. Otherwise Trevor Bauer and possibly even the Atlanta Braves would both have serious grounds for a grievance against MLB for being treated unfairly. Especially Bauer and he could easily win a civil case against MLB for that. MLB really doesn’t want that because they don’t want to open the books. Why even start the process if they have already made a precedent that proves they can’t win?
The big problem is definitely the Dodgers payroll situation if they refuse to pay him. $70 million is nothing to sneeze at. The thing is Ozuna’s $53 million is nothing to sneeze at either so the Braves are stuck in the same situation as the Dodgers. It probably hurts the Braves more with their lower budget. Either way, if MLB allowed the Dodgers to skip out on paying Bauer it would be obvious they were trying to help Ozuna and the Dodgers while also trying to hurt Bauer and the Braves. I can’t think of a reason Manfred would want to go through that. Someone who is charged as a criminal has to be penalized more than someone who isn’t.
The Dodgers have to be expecting to pay Bauer in full. They also have to be expecting to have him eligible to play opening day. They probably want to trade him and get him out of town but won’t be able to in a deal that doesn’t hurt the team. The same is probably true for the Braves and Ozuna. If neither team wants to play their player that bad there is only one thing that even makes halfway sense to do. Trade them for each other. If not that than just play them. Or they could take “the higher road” and hurt the team by paying both players to leave the team and do nothing. That doesn’t punish the player at all. It’s probably a reward they want. No one should want those guys to be rewarded for this. Play them or trade them for each other.
Eh. A player doesn’t have to be convicted, charged, or even arrested to be suspended. And other players have been suspended for a lot less than what we know for a fact that Bauer did. But once the suspension has been served, the league will consider the matter closed and the Dodgers will be required to pay the balance of Bauer’s contract, regardless of whether or not they keep him.
It has nothing to do with helping one or the other. Jeez. It has to do with the contracts signed and the very specific reasons why voiding can or cannot be allowed. It’s all legal paperwork fans are too lazy to read, so they assume the league must play favorites. Cmon
I’m not assuming anyone will play favorites. I’m assuming there is no way the league will punish Bauer more than they punished Ozuna because Ozuna actually got charged with crimes. Bauer didn’t. The league didn’t even really punish Ozuna. The leagues punishment to Ozuna was that he got to take 113 games off and still get paid for 93 of them. That was with a violent felony charge involved. Considering Bauer was charged with nothing his penalty has to be less than that. Both player will be eligible to play opening day. If Ozuna is Bauer is as well. If charged violent felons still get paid than players who never catch a charge easily still get paid.
That’s the whole thing. I think the whole S&M thing is a bit crazy, but there is a non-insignificant that like it. Most of it is likely more like play-acting, but some of it can be violent.
Assuming consent, it isn’t much different than people that belong to fight clubs. You have people that will box against other accountants with 20 ounces gloves and helmets, where the fight gets stopped after someone incurs a paper cut. And you have some that will go bare knuckles.
Again, assuming consent, I have an inclination to let you do whatever you what to do. I plan on boxing when I retire, and I think bare knuckles is kind of stupid. But I also don’t want to judge people that think differently than I do.
What happened to Gavin Lux? Guy was untouchable in trades and now is just a depth guy…
I think that just shows how depth much the dodgers have, I think they will give him this year and the next to prove himself and unlock his true potential
Lux Sux.
@ statman, you stupid to comment that.
You must be all alone and miserable today.
Ha, that’s funny! But still at .233 career avg, Lux still SUX.
He’s not wrong
Actually, he is wrong. He just turned 24, and had a .967 in his final month, with a 1.6 bWAR on the season, in only 335 ABs. He should be fine.
I agree with Brady, no Lux tax for Gavin and room to grow.
Anyone who actually watched Lux in September-October knows he isn’t a depth guy. And who were they supposed to trade him for? The Pirates old closer who is playing for County Prison? One year of Lindor who was on the brink of being due a 340 million dollar deal? There is zero regret over keeping Lux.
What happened? They got Trea Turner so he started playing LF along with 2B. Then looked great when he came back up. He’s far from a bust
I think they end up with one of Rodon or Bryant (high reward, no qualifying offer), Kershaw returns, and the rest of the roster is standard Dodger “guys you never heard of till they contribute” types.
Kershaw returns or retires. No way Dodgers add Bryant. Rodin would be a nice get, but Sonny Gray or one of the A’s pitchers ate more likely.
Don’t forget Phil Bickford as a key bullpen depth piece. He had a good 2021.
Vesia too
Don’t forget the Red Sox are very generously paying half of the 32 million owed to David Price
Go Dodgers!
Merry Christmas !
It seems to me the two biggest questions remaining are where do Kenley and Kershaw sign, back to LA, or ????
Kenley’s long gone. I don’t think the Dodgers would sign him for $5m. Ship has sailed. Kershaw is interesting, tho. I have a funny feeling he may just decide to retire, and go out before he truly sucks and is just collecting a paycheck. He seems like the sort who has lots of post career interests and may decide to just go for it.
The Dodgers would definitely pay Kenley five million or maybe even ten million for a one year deal. But I expect them to let another team offer a better deal, so I do agree that he is gone.
Go look at Kenley’s 2021. No reason to pretend he was horrible
BeforeMcCourt5 hours ago
Go look at Kenley’s 2021. No reason to pretend he was horrible
===============================
Yup, I’m not sure what fans look at sometimes. If one wants to argue that Jansen is a risk, I agree. If one wants to argue that Jansen was anything but outstanding in 2021, well, I think that’s ridiculous.
Maybe Kershaw will remain unsigned until the All-Star break and then sign with Dodgers to have enough juice to finish season? Or maybe he will just retire. The Hall of Fame will be ready for him whenever he is ready to walk away.
Jansen has spent 12 years in the NL West. If I was his agent I’d head east and hope to get a 2 year deal which will take him to retirement. Zero chance LAD even make an offer.
So a team has a paid a guy for a dozen years, he had a great year and there’s zero chance they make even a cursory offer? What stupid logic
Michael Busch, Miguel Vargas, Diego Cartaya, Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, Andy Pages, and Landon Knack. The farm system has a lot of talent in the upper minors this year.
I could see Friedman sending something like Andre Jackson and M. Busch to OAK or CIN for a pitcher and lower level prospect.
Not enough. They’d get outbid in a second, unless you’re not talking about Oakland’s or Cincy’s good SP’s.
Oakland has 3 pitchers to sell. I doubt they can find 3 offers better than a top 100 prospect and ML ready pitcher.
It is enough for one year of Sonny Gray. Not even close for Castillo.
I would nevet underestimate them, but the hit they’ve taken is certainly understated, especially if Jansen and Kersh go elsewhere as well.
By the way, what’s the deal with even assuming that the Bauer and Ozuna deals could be gotten out of? Is there precedent here?
Do they put morality clauses in MLB contracts? I thought most major sports do.
im sure they do, but it’s typically a legal grey area on what counts and what doesn’t. that’s why I ask. there may be a mechanism, but is it viable?
Obviously if there is a morality clause its burden of proof is very tight or it would have been enacted a thousand times already. Short answer: no, they can’t void contracts over these issues.
I doubt it, as well. Bigger question is can someone else sign him if the Dodgers don’t want the headache and pay him to go away.
I don’t see any scenario where another team even signs him for league minimum. Bauer is a pariah, and no matter how good he is on the field, he’s more trouble than he’s worth to any organization.
They do, but the first step in invoking immorality, is having an arrest and conviction.
The MLB does not need to have a conviction to invoke any of their fines or suspensions. I would bet it will be similar to Ozuna’s penalties. As with Ozuna , Nobody will probably want them, So the teams are stuck with them.
But then it’s not an immorality clause, it’s a don’t get convicted of a crime clause. Totally different thing. The point of a morality clause is so you DON’T have to wait for an arrest, if you do, it’s pointless.
@cryptonerd If they do it’s never been enforced considering no player has ever had their contract voided under that clause. And it hasn’t been for a lack of opportunity.
Wanted to touch on this in original post but didn’t because thought some LA fans may take offense, but believe it may be important regarding the Bauer case and is worth taking into consideration..
Who is the LA DA? Look up history, the guy is flat out no firebrand. i don’t think he’s going to push very hard for charges. Take a good look at his backing and everything. not going to put his name here, easy enough to find on your own if don’t already know/familiar with the dude.
Bauer needs to thank his lucky stars Gascone is in place. He’d be reticent to file charges against Charles Manson much less Bauer.
If there are felony convictions and you are in jail, the team does not have to pay because you cannot play.
No precedent whatsoever
Look, if the other article is suggesting the Astros are well-equipped to handle Correa’s loss, then why in the world would you ask the question about the Dodgers when they have a better shortstop than Seager on the team alreay (Turner)? Makes no sense.
Yes, the Dodgers will be fine, of course. It’s the Stros who may suffer, if anyone, as the Dodgers will simply spend their way out of trouble, plus like I said they have a guy who is better than Seager at short anyway.
Turner played last year too. So they’re not replacing Seager w Turner, they’re in effect replacing Seager with Lux (or some other 2B tbd).
Actually, they are replacing Seager/Turner with just Turner. Seager/Turner only combined for 560 ABs, and I assume that Turner will have at least that many this year for LA.
Bingo!
Well, what is up with Trevor Bauer and his contract?
And yes the Dodgers can survive, they have a pretty good minor league pipeline
Bauer had a player option/opt out…I’ll give you one guess as to what he did with it…
Punched it in the butt?
thank you!
Out of the box thinking
Attach prospects to unload Bauer, does he have a NTC? Attach Cartaya and Busch + lower prospects and it clears 35.3 mill in 2022 and 2023.
Trade Bellinger. Yankees? Possibly a Torress and Bellinger deal with other parts involved? Both could use a change of scenery. Torres slots in to 2B Taylor is everyday CF. Yankees can put Bellinger in CF and his lefty swing would play nice in NY.
According to the AP: “Bauer has a limited no-trade provision that requires his consent to be dealt to an American League team from opening day through the All-Star Game. He has a contingent limited no-trade provision for the rest of each season requiring his approval to be dealt to an AL team if he is an All-Star, has thrown more than 80 innings before the All-Star Game or pitches at least one inning in each start before the All-Star Game.”
And jeez, Bellinger really would have a great swing for Yankee Stadium.
That would require someone wanting him to play for them.
Couple years ago Padres traded Kemp for Olivera from the Braves who was all out of the league due to domestic violence legal troubles.
A team taking on Bauer’s contract wouldnt expect him to play for them. They could take the contract, cut him, eat the money on their payroll for 2 years just to acquire the prospects, all without Bauer ever wearing their uniform.
But the Padres immediately released Olivera. That was a salary dump deal only.
“They could take the contract, cut him…..”
Yes and a team that acquires Bauer’s contract could also just cut him and eat they money for 2 years as he will just clear waivers and be free to sign elsewhere. Just because you acquire him doesnt mean youre obligated to keep him on the roster or part of the organization.
In the unlikely event that MLB creates a team salary floor, and Dodgers are forced to pay Bauer, this would be a brilliant way for a team like the Pirates to spend their money. Pirates would acquire Bauer’s contract and several solid Dodger prospects in return for a bag of balls. Pirates could cut Bauer or more easily survive the PR hit that Bauer would cause in LA. And they would have pieces to use for sustained competition. But I do think that the Bauer case will result in a plea deal because Bauer admitted to hitting the woman after she passed out. I think they will negotiate a buyout with the Dodgers and Bauer will be pitching somewhere in a year, but not MLB, maybe Latin America?
But then again, I thought Marcell Ozuna would be suspended for a lot longer, maybe 100 games, given that officers saw some of that with their own eyes.
He doesn’t look like a Yankee.
Joey, how about NO!
Dodgers would have to put Lux into the deal since Bellinger has only one year of control and a large contract on top of that.
Bellinger has 2 years
This year hes at 17 mill and has a 4th arb year
Torres has 3 arb years and is scheduled to make 5.75 this year.
Dodgers would need to take some salary back or offset the difference with prospects.
Neither is really the cornerstone their clubs hoped for. Its just a change of scenery deal for two young players hoping something clicks.
Hahahahaha. No
Cartaya and Bobby miller to reds for Castillo ? Who says no? Big overpay?? Or market value??
Reds
Reds take that deal in 5 seconds. Castillo is becoming overvalued to a Jose Quintana level. He’s solid but not elite. That’s 2 primer prospects for 2 years of control of a #3 starter on a good team. Dodgers say no to that.
That’s an excellent offer, and I think I jump at that if I’m the Reds. Cartaya is an absolute stud, and I very much doubt the Dodgers do it.
Reds say no, but those two players but a couple of lesser prospects would be fair market value. The funny thing is that I think Dodgers would also say no. Easier to trade Busch and Hoese to rent Sonny Gray for a year and keep Carrara and Vargas for future lineup.
I think it’s fair or close to it but the Dodgers might not be willing to trade 2 top 100 prospects for 2 years of Castillo. A similar package brought back a rental in Scherzer plus Trea Turner for 2 years. If Friedman misses out on Sonny Gray and the 3 A’s pitchers, maybe he ponies up more but there’s a few options out there still.
Zero chance Dodgers do either for Castillo
Should Will Smith be on the lists somewhere?
Still under team control and isn’t arb eligible so he wouldn’t appear on any of those lists. He will make league minimum.
Okay, thanks,
WHAT? Will Smith? Good Lord!
The Dodgers can withstand the loss of Seager. It’s the pitching losses that will hurt. Especially Kershaw (though i don’t really see him leaving)
Maybe Kershaw can be the 6th man on the giants a real club w a real fan base
Real fan base? Apparently you didn’t spend much time in the Bay Area from 2017-2020. The giants are the forgotten illegitimate child of the Warriors and 49’ers in the Bay unless they’re in the playoffs
Josh Harrison to LAD is my guess for that bat..
I think Dodgers will have best regular season record in 2022, they will trade to add a starter like Sonny Gray and hope Kershaw returns. Additional question for postseason, will Dustin May be a factor or not?
It’s possible! I think they’ll win around 95, because they’re going to lose a lot of good players. However, I certainly don’t think that the Giants will win 107 again! They’ll regress big time. LA will win the NL West.
I like how they dissect the team like they did. They did it yesterday with the White Sox, too. I hope they do an article like this on the Tigers. As for this one, I quipped about a month ago that it must be a bummer to be a Dodgers fan this winter. They’d have to resign a bunch of pretty darn good players just to break even basically. And they’d have to add a ton to hopefully be as good as last season. They won 105 (I think), versus the Giants 107. As of right now, neither one of them will win 100. The Giants will most definitely regress to approximately 90-ish. While LA will probably win around 95-ish because while they obviously won’t replace everyone they lose with an as good or better player, they usually make decent enough decisions to stay on or near the top of the NL West. Plus, it doesn’t hurt to have a ton of money & a decent minor league system either.
Does Scherzer get to 300 Wins yes or no ?
No way. Not unless he develops a knuckle ball. He’s not even at 200 yet.
youtube.com/watch?v=18PbwYdjsps
Why would the Dodgers be let out of their contractual obligation to Bauer? And don’t bring up the morals clause. That didn’t get the Rockies off the hook for Jose Reyes, the Padres for Hector Olivera, the Phillies for Odubel Herrera or the Braves for Marcell Ozuna.
Oh. And the Dodgers still should have QO’d Clayton Kershaw.
That either be a professional courtesy so he can shop around and get maximum value or a head fake to put question marks in potential buyers heads. I think he’ll re-sign with LA
Declining to extend the QO as a “professional courtesy so he can shop around and get maximum value” is a out the dumbest thing they could have possibly done. There is a reason why that has never happened before.
Of course! They’ll just go buy more!
It’s funny that the author tries to pussyfoot around Kershaw’s greatness so much. Yes, he’s still great. It’s ok to say!
I think if you’re going to penalize the top for spending past the luxury tax line you need to also penalize those consistently on the bottom for not generating revenue to be competitive. Maybe a few teams should close up shop like Miami, Oakland, Kansas City, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Tampa apparently those cities can’t afford a major league team.
Still amazed that the Dodgers are paying $40MM to have Bauer sit at home. Imagine if they had him in the playoffs.
Or Muncy. Or Kershaw. Or a healthy J Turner.
Lots of what ifs. Lots of talent didn’t play for LA. If you can’t win thru the BS, you don’t deserve to win. Simple.
I think Bauer – even if not charged – gets 1/2 season. Which he should accept (but won’t).
Let’s just sign Tre ! Unless they have another great superstar SS, I don’t see that. So get your check book open pen inked and sign the contract!