Coming off a 2021 season that saw them run away with the NL Central behind a stable of controllable arms that put up high-end numbers for salaries that fell well below market value, the Brewers’ pitching staff is among the great envies of Major League Baseball. While many of their salaries will rise through arbitration in 2022 – Brandon Woodruff and Josh Hader are each slated for hefty raises – no decision facing Brewers GM Matt Arnold will have a greater bearing on the club’s future than his approach to reigning NL Cy Young Award Winner Corbin Burnes.
After pitching last season for a relatively piddly $608K, MLBTR’s Matt Swartz has Burnes slated for an even $4MM salary in 2022, his first year of arbitration eligibility, should he and the Brewers choose to go that route. While it clearly won’t come cheap, Arnold and the Brewers will at least want to kick the tires on a possible extension with their ace. With dollars flying around at an unprecedented rate before the lockout, though, what such an extension might look like remains an open question. Should the Brewers follow the arbitration path for the duration of Burnes’ eligibility, he’d become a free agent following his age-29 season in 2024.
While pinpointing a length or dollar-figure would be pure guesswork, we can safely say that a Burnes extension won’t come cheap. Burnes’ stellar 2021 didn’t come out of nowhere, exactly, but few would have predicted the dominance he displayed, particularly given that he had cracked top-prospect lists only shortly before his 2018 debut and entered 2021 with just 13 lifetime big-league starts. He’d also fallen on his face in a rotation stint to open the 2019 season, allowing 11 homers across three outings, and performed only marginally better out of the bullpen (7.76 ERA in 28 relief appearances, 10.70 in four starts).
Burnes’ huge step forward in 2020 came largely as the result of a plummeting home run rate (from 7.2% in 2019 to a miniscule 0.8% in 2020). In 2021, he nearly maintained the same low home run rate (1.1%) while cutting his walk rate almost in half to the lowest mark in the NL (from 10% in 2020 to 5.2% in 2021), while his home-run rate, K-rate (35.6%), K/BB ratio (6.88), and FIP (1.63) all led the majors among qualified starters. He also won the big-league ERA title with a 2.43 mark in 167 innings.
Given the relative scarcity of pitchers of Burnes’ caliber at this point in their careers, comparisons are scant. The White Sox gave Chris Sale $32MM over five years ahead of the 2013 season, but he was still a year from arbitration and only had one year as a starter—and no Cy Youngs—under his belt at the time. The seven years and $175MM the Nationals gave Stephen Strasburg in May 2016—which also included an opt-out clause he wound up using—came only a few months ahead of Strasburg reaching free agency (albeit with a Tommy John surgery on file). Similarly, Jacob deGrom’s five-year, $137.5MM whopper came just ahead of his final arb-year. (On one hand, deGrom was 31 in 2019, significantly older than Burnes, but is also in a class of his own.)
Perhaps a better comp is Aaron Nola’s four year, $45MM pact (also with a club option) with the Phillies in 2019, which came at the same point in his arbitration cycle, though the comparison is far from perfect. While Nola was at the time a year younger than Burnes is now and had a longer track record as an effective big-league starter, he’d never reached (and hasn’t since) quite the heights Burnes has over the last two seasons. The closest comparison, then, is likely the $50MM over five years the Rays gave to Blake Snell following his dominant 2018 Cy Young season. That backloaded deal, which came a year ahead of Snell’s arbitration eligibility, followed a breakout campaign on the heels of strong but not spectacular performances in the two years prior.
The Brewers will likely be more than willing to give Burnes (and his dominant cutter) quite a bit more in the ways of both years and dollars than the Phillies gave Nola or the Rays gave Snell, perhaps inching him a bit closer to Strasburg and deGrom. They should also have money to spend; the eight-figure salaries of Avisail Garcia (signed with the Marlins) and Jackie Bradley Jr. (traded to the Red Sox) have both come off their books, while Lorenzo Cain’s will do the same after he plays out his $18MM guarantee in 2022. They’ll remain on the hook for $26MM/year to Christian Yelich through 2028, but they otherwise have no salary commitments in 2023 beyond $3.735MM to starter Freddy Peralta and a $2MM buyout to second baseman Kolten Wong.
They will, of course, also want to augment a lineup that lagged well behind the rotation in overall production, but figuring out the plan with their rotation anchor is certain to be their first priority. Something in the neighborhood of a five- or six-year guarantee that pushes the nine-figure mark – perhaps also including performance escalators and/or a high-dollar club option or two – might be enough to satisfy club and player, guaranteeing the Brewers cost certainty and control of their franchise player beyond his arbitration years and Burnes significant financial security.
With the small-market Brewers in the middle of a contention window and Burnes’ rotation-mates Woodruff and Peralta under club control through 2024 and 2026, respectively, Brewers fans can likely count on the same sort of high-end starting pitching that propelled the 2021 club for at least a few more years regardless of Burnes’ contract status. Lefty Eric Lauer and late-bloomer Adrian Houser will likely return to round out the rotation in 2022, each in his first of arb-eligibility, granting the club an enviable expectation of consistency in the rotation. Graduating prospect Aaron Ashby, who pitched to a 4.55 ERA in 31 2/3 innings in 2021, may also push for a spot in rotation, though Craig Counsell may choose to keep him in the bullpen (or stash him in AAA) until his services as a starter are required.
While the small-market Brewers will likely have to dole out a bit more in the way of years and dollars than they’d like to keep their ace around in the long term, it may just be a risk they have to take. If Burnes can stay healthy and duplicate his recent dominance into his early 30s, the club would at minimum have the sort of top-of-the-rotation workhorse that perennial playoff teams rely on to reach the tournament year after year. And if Burnes preserves anything like his form over the last two seasons over the long haul, it would be a risk they’re glad they took.
Codeeg
I like like Corbin Burnes, but he’s a product of todays management of having the SP go through the lineup 2 times and over so many pitches. It’s very effective and he’s one of the best at what he does. I just don’t know if workhorse is the right way of describing him though, but maybe under todays type of SP he would fall under that category.
BigFred
He averaged 6 innings per start in 2021. That’s not too bad.
miltpappas
Ghost of Warren Spahn “Six innings? Wow. Golly gee whiz”.
User 1471943197
Yea it’s sad how starting pitchers are being pampered….all about these big contracts…blown out elbows….funny when I was a kid in the 60s..there wasn’t many arm injuries as today….and those pitchers were studs…
deweybelongsinthehall
Ghost, as a Sox fan, only two pitchers’ injuries stand out to me from the late 60 through the eighties. There had to be more but only starter Ray Culp and closer Bill Campbell come to mind with respect to significant injuries to a pitcher that was depended on.
gbs42
Just about everybody throws 95+ these days, and there are very few easy outs in any lineup, which are two huge changes compared to the ’60s. Those are two factors that make every pitch and overall pitching more challenging these days.
User 1471943197
Here’s another big reason with arm and shoulder and elbow issues…. PARENTS….they want to take their 12-13 year old kid ….wanting them to throw curves and change ups etc . …those kids bodies and bones are mature….too much strain and stress
stubby66
I agree completely. I was coaching a game earlier this year and the other coach was giving his pitchers a sign to throw curve balls.The kid was in tears . I stopped the game and said it wasn’t going to go on until the kid was removed.He said his elbow was hurting every time he through a curve. Coach was mad cause he said he didn’t have anymore pitchers. I told him that is what he was there for to coach others . To be ready. You can’t sit there and play 3 to 4 games a weekend with just 3 pitchers.
HiAndTight
I believe absolutely no part of this story.
Also…did someone just cite CHANGEUP’S as a reason for arm issues?
stubby66
No it was a curveball that was hurting this boys arm. The problem is coaches trying to win no matter what.
Appalachian_Outlaw
I understand what you’re saying, however in this age you almost have to define a “workhorse” for what it is, too- and today Burnes would be one. There were only 4 guys to toss 200 innings + last season. I feel like with pitching injuries, the new bar is can you take the ball when it’s your turn; and Burnes took it 28 times. The league leaders took it 32.
donotinteruptMYkungfu
And they walked 10 miles to the ballpark for every game…..uphill, in both directions too
stubby66
Laugh all you want but it’s not just getting in the weight room.i have my kids work on the farm. That is just as good as if not better then weight rooms. Think these kids need more Manuel labor instead of stationary weights
gbs42
This comment reminded of the training montage in Rocky 4 – Ivan Drago on the sophisticated equipment and Rocky in the barn and snow.
HiAndTight
What does this even mean? “Your kids?” The kids you coach?
You were just talking about your observations from the 60s, so your “kids” were probably kids in the 70s or 80s. So the kids you coach, you force them to work on farms as opposed to weight training? Because weight training is bad?
Yes, I believe this even less than I believe the, “I demanded they stop allowing the other kid to throw a curve because he was crying every pitch…and refused to play, so the coach gave in,” story…
gbs42
H&T – You may not believe it, but the point *could* be that working on a farm exercises muscles in a wide variety of ways while weight training can be very repetitive and might cause repetitive stress on certain parts of the body, especially in youths.
stubby66
Thank you.
stubby66
Plus my point is I did farm work growing up in late 70s and 80s. Now I had three boys and coached them all . My main thing is that they had fun and every kid mattered on the team. I personally think weight training gets pushed too much. But yes I believe in hard work. I believe in kids doing numerous sports because they all tie in. I don’t like kids doing one sport year round. Also do my kids help me on the farm as they grew up yes a little hard work doesn’t hurt anyone it teaches work ethic and toughness. Now people can rip on me all they want but I must be doing something right cause my kids have graduated and I still get asked to coach. I know not every kid is going to be a star some won’t be that good but if it keeps them out of trouble then that is success.
HiAndTight
Yeah…I get that part(9 months ago I got it as well).
I just don’t believe this guy. I don’t believe he walked out there and DEMANDED that the opposing team take that pitcher out because he was crying on the mound and NOBODY but him had the courage to stand up for this kid! LMFAO…it’s absolutely ridiculous.
Then mix in the ages and all that and it’s silly.
And sure, throwing hay bails or whatever, it’s good for your core. So are a dozen different ways to train with weights. You just have to know what you’re doing. You don’t even need a weight room. I had a college teammate(Wrestling) who was a 3X All American and he never touched weights. He did planks, pushups, whatever. Now…that not the best way to train, it’s not the most effective…but literally ALL this is besides the point.
I just don’t believe he demanded a kid from the opposing team stop pitching because he was throwing too many curveballs…and stopped.
Everyone is the hero of their own story…and sometimes that story is fiction.
Anyway, sucks the Brewers didn’t lock Burnes up when they had a chance.
Also, sucks that all these, “back in my day” people realized how many great pitchers had their arms ruined and how much less strain a pitcher put on his elbow.
HiAndTight
Not one person has argued ” a little hard work doesn’t hurt anyone it teaches work ethic and toughness.”
That’s not why I ripped on that comment. Likewise, nobody disputed multiple sports are good…though that depends on how good you are at a particular sport.
But that’s not what I disputed. And farm work is great. Lifting weights is a NEAR absolute requirement if you want to be an elite athlete though. Working on a farm isn’t physical enough, you’re not getting the type of workout you need. But yeah, farm work, bailing hay, those are good things for your core…and most modern farms have equipment for that, so if it’s something you need to be done, it’s a nice little workout.
You can do the same at a gym and a lot more. But great, they’re working out and working on the farm. Those are great things.
Again, not disputed. Just…that you effectively took the ball out of the opposing pitchers hand because the kid was crying and that youth sports are why kids are blowing out their arms.
Metsin777
I think Burnes won’t be that good after this season. I know all the stats say hes good but I’ve watched him and he doesn’t remind me of guys like Degrom, Wainwright, or Cole. Just seems like he got lucky going through the order once or twice over 5-6 innings
Appalachian_Outlaw
That’s an awful high bar. Those guys are -or in Wainwright’s case, were- aces. The hard truth is there aren’t enough true aces for everyone to get one. A pitcher can be a strong #1 without being a true ace.
To call what he did “luck” is a little silly, though. You don’t get lucky 28 times.
myaccount2
He averaged 6 innings a start and had a 1.63 FIP, 2.30 xFIP, and an xERA of 2.00. His BABIP against was .309.
One could argue he actually had unlucky results as opposed to getting lucky “going through the order once or twice” when he actually typically went through the order 3 times per start.
And his cutter is a top 5 pitch in baseball. Threw it 52% of the time and had an xBA of .198 with it.
Astros2017&22Champs
Corbin Burnes walked nobody and struck out everybody. Hes an Ace going forward for me. The Brewers are contenders as long as these guys stay healthy.
Yankee-4-Lifer 75
Not trying to hurt the Brewer loyal here. But definitely thinking Burnes is going to hit free agency. If Milwaukee trades him they will get a King’s ransom back.
Bud Selig Fan
My guess is the Brewers FO will trade Burnes after the ‘22 or ‘23 season, and do the same with Woodruff, receiving their eventual replacements in those trades, plus more.
This team has the deepest, best, experienced, prime-aged starting staff in the game, and it’s not close. They likely have 1 more year of Woodruff-Burnes-Peralta before they start a Rays/Guardians replacement strategy.
I believe the team will stay with the 6-man rotation for at least as long as it keeps their incredible starters strong & healthy, so that means Aaron Ashby as the teams 6th starter and Ethan Small as starter #7.
If this team can continue to get good health out of their starters, get a better performance from Yelich next season and with a full season of Adames, an improved offense over’21, it could end up winning their first ever WS.
SalaryCapMyth
@Yankee fan. I really doubt anyone thinks you’re being unfair or even unkind. Brewers fans that have been one for any length of time understand the plight of Brewer fandom. I feel for the Brewers fans having to hold their breath over this. If the Brewers don’t end up extending him and he does anything even close to what he did last season, the only way the Brewers aren’t priced out is if he gives Milwaukee a home town discount.
Louholtz22
Hey Metsin7, Throwing a 97 mph cutter isn’t luck. I’ll take a healthy Burnes over an oft injured deGrom, or Cole who’s a high priced no show in the postseason. Your team is an embarrassment to the game. All the money in the world to spend and year after year futility. 1986 is in the far distant past. BTW, why the hell did you throw in 40 year old Wainwright? Dum
stevecohenMVP
Degrom isn’t oft-injured, neophyte. He was injured just last year. That’s it. He’s missed games one season since 2014 before last year. Use your words better.
stevecohenMVP
And you’re an embarrassment. This displays your low IQ status within baseball as burnes was injured too last year and missed 4-5 starts. Don’t talk poop until you learn better
User 1471943197
Lou holtz..stick to being a dead football coach…degrom is never injured..except for this year.. .if you going to be a troll…be one who knows what he’s talking about….whatsa matter…you get crap in your stocking?
Astros2017&22Champs
Woah. Gerrit Cole pitched the Astros to a near title in ‘19. AJ Hinch refusing to put him in game 7 was unforgivable. A couple bad postseasons with the yankees and hes a no-show?
tstats
Wow one bad postseason WC start! So terrible…
Metsin777
His numbers before 2020 and 2021 werent very good. I can see him reverting to his old ways next season
colonel flagg
Came up midway through 2018 – pitched very well out of the pen. He had a very poor 2019. He was as good as anyone in 2020 and 2021. That’s one bad year out of three and one half. I would say he figured it out. He may drop off some, but reverting to his old ways makes it sound like he was mediocre or worse for an extended period of time.
sfes
Oft-injured? Do you pay attention to baseball? And yes 86 was a long time ago. I still don’t see a time in Milwaukee history when the Brewers have ever reached the level of success the Mets have, even within the last 6 years. If anything that should be embarrassing. And I was pulling for them in the post season
myaccount2
He would rightfully cost a fortune. I’m not sure there is a comp out there given the circumstances.
mlb1225
The Brew Crew has to have the best rotation in baseball, right? Last year, they had 6 pitchers with at least 20 starts and an ERA+ of 101. 5 of them had an ERA+ of 130 or higher.
sfes
Burnes Woodruff and Peralta are filthy and young.
Louholtz22
The Crew has an amazing staff and bullpen arms to close out games. Just wish they had the dough for O. All I want for Xmas is the old Yelich and perfected back surgery for all in need. Quite a big ask
stevecohenMVP
The brewers are not good. Keep dreaming.
Appalachian_Outlaw
The Brewers won 95 games in ’21 and the Mets won 77 games. So if the Brewers aren’t good, what does that make the Mets when they finished 18 games behind them?
stevecohenMVP
I didn’t mention the Mets but they were trash last year. I never said Mets were better. I’m just talking smack to this neophyte. Thanks though
SalaryCapMyth
“..just talking smack to this neophyte.”
Okay, but you’re still wrong. Winning 95 games is..you know..good. At worst they can say they were one of the top 5 teams in the National League. That means they are better than 2/3 of the NL at least. Being in the top third means you are better than average at worst.
afsooner02
4 playoff appearances in a row with the reigning Cy Young and a MVP winner say this comment is stupid.
FredMcGriff for the HOF
Brewers starting pitching looking really good for the next 2-3 years. I don’t see Hader getting traded either he is too much of a asset with the way starting pitching rarely go 7-8 innings anymore.
mike156
That Yelich contract looks terrible, but it’s hard to believe that someone so incredibly good in 2018/19 could be so mediocre in 20/21. He’s got to have a bit of a comeback in him.
inkstainedscribe
If his back recovers, sure. If not, he’ll be a solid OBP guy with average power. In other words, replacement-level but not worth $26 million-a-year to a mid-market team.
1984wasntamanual
Back injuries can ruin careers. Plenty of people saw this as a possibility when that extension was signed. That said, I hope he can come back strong, he’s fun to watch.
Louholtz22
Merry Xmas everyone. Glad to see we’re all riled up now! I had to get the party started. Cole was banged up, be nice to see a healthy deGrom this year. Love watching him pitch. As much as I loathe the Cardinals, good for the game that Wano and Yadi can ride off into the sunset together
DarkSide830
I know the rest of Phillies fans will disagree, but this dude was easily the best starter in the NL last year. that said, I think last year was a high water mark. He should certainly be a pretty good pitcher going forward, but extending off such a high point unless the player sells themself short is foolish.
Bud Selig Fan
@ DarkSide830
Burnes has the nastiest arsenal, outside of DeGrom, of any starter in baseball. It’s not just his cutter, but his CB is also one of the best pitches in baseball. He also has a plus 2-seam FB, a plus CH, and a plus SL he rarely throws because he doesn’t need to. Then add in plus command to top it all off. He should perennially contend for the CY as long as he remains healthy.
DarkSide830
I dunno. The injuries concern me and I get a feeling of volatility from him. i may be wrong, granted, but it just feels a little early to assume he’ll either be dominant or a train wreck.
Bud Selig Fan
@ DarkSide830
Burnes has never had an arm injury. Last year he missed 2-3 starts with Covid and in ‘20 missed the postseason with an Oblique injury.
Kruk it
He’s worth Nola money, but Nola isn’t worth Nola money!!
1984wasntamanual
Even if the things you say happen, I think last year is still probably his peak. 7.5 fWAR is a REALLY good season. You can be a perennial cy young contender and never reach that mark again.
JoshHolt32
I’d lock up Burnes, Woodruff and Hader ASAP if I was the brewers owner – all 3 unique talents this is a no brainer!
FredMcGriff for the HOF
Just imagine how different the Brewers club would look right now without that July 30th 2015 trade with the Astros that landed the Brewers Adrian Houser and Josh Hader.
~Purist~
imagine what the astros would look like without that deal
jay13
It would be nice to lock up all 3 of those guys. Where are you going to come up with the money to cover half of the other positions on the team.
LebronHatesAsians
Dude is going to shatter the previous record contract given to a RP
DarkSide830
swing and a miss
LebronHatesAsians
You’re nuts if you think otherwise. I don’t even think a RP has broken the $100 million barrier yet. This guy is going to land a deal in the $200 million area
User 1471943197
Lebron hates idiots like you
LebronHatesAsians
Awwww sorry I offended you cupcake
Braves Butt-Head
Well if the Brewers were the Ray’s or A’s they would have Burnes on the trade block right now to sell high on him. And really with any pitcher you can in some way justify selling on them with of the volatile nature of the position has become with the all the arm injuries and sometimes pitchers just falling off or getting the yips. But the Brewers need to try for the extension but if he wants Gerrit Cole money then you better trade him and load up the farm.
sfes
If he continues his ace level output, he’s gone in a few years.
MannyPineappleExpress9
Burnes had his bout with the yips in 2019. If he got through that, I don’t see another issue in his future.
And I think its a bit premature to put him on the trade block with all the arb years left.
Braves Butt-Head
Depends on what you can get the Ray’s had plenty of arb years on Blake Snell and we have seen guys get traded with 2 or 3 arb years left before.
MannyPineappleExpress9
This is his first arb year, and the Brewers expect to contend for at least the next couple, assuming he, Woody and Peralta can continue to pitch like they did in 21, and they can get some improvement offensively (Yelich coming close to his ’18 and ’19 form would be a big start).
They didn’t jump to trade Hader when basically everyone said they should/would, so why is the Burnes situation different?
Gwynning
5y/$90m
stubby66
If the Brewers could move Cains contract and with Wong coming off the books next year. You can put Turang to second and Mitchell in center next year. They should concentrate on trying to extend Adames, Narvaez, Houser, Williams, Lauer, Urias, Taylor and maybe Tellez. Use Felliciano as your back up catcher. Then next off season see if you can lock up Hader, Burnes, or Woodruff. Hopefully 2 out of these three. Only use File, Bettinger, or Ray in trades as far as major league ready prospects in trades. Use prospects lower in minor league development in trades. I believe that some of these NRI could possibly help us like Westbrook, Dahl, Barnes, Perdoma( Tommy John surgery), Singleton could be real fines. Time will tell. I know people want to make big trades but. I believe this way could still keep us in WS hunt for years to come. I hope we’re able to retain Strickland. Hopefully they can bring a couple more minor league players in during lockout like Brinson, Brault, or some relief arms in. Maybe see what a Cooper. Anderson( Marlins), Davis or Dominic Smith might cost in trades. Not really high on the one year rental guys that are available. Think teams are going to be asking too much in return. I saw that people didn’t think Small, Turang, Weimer and Mitchell wasn’t enough for Olson!!! That in my opinion is ridiculous!!!!!
MannyPineappleExpress9
Maybe in another 3 years Turang will (finally) be the stud you feel he is now. I won’t hold my breath.
stubby66
Hope they stay patient . I like the trades we have made in the past but this time I think we would be served better keeping some of our top young talent. Heck let’s bring back Jimmy Nelson on a minor league contract
kirkydu
Extend Burnes & Woodruff, sign Kris Bryant & a reliever, trade Hader for a AAA team.
TrillionaireTeamOperator
I’d go all in right now with a deal that more than sets Burnes for life but doesn’t break the bank for anybody who’d be paying the contract, making it very trade-able whether he turns out to be less than the Cy Young pitcher he currently is, but not worthless for a starting pitcher.
3 years/$26M guaranteed, with 4 club options that could make it 7 years/$112M total…. with MVP, Cy Young, etc. bonuses that could take it up to $133M over 7 years.
$2M signing bonus, $3M 2022, $9M 2023, $11M 2024, $1M buyout on $17M club option, $3M buyout on $20M club option, $4M buyout on $25M club option, $4M buyout on $25M club option.
popitforpoppa
extension won’t come with the brewers, Mark Attanasio is far too cheap for that to happen
MannyPineappleExpress9
Right, he didn’t overpay for Jeff suppan, Kyle Lohse, Matt Garza or, it appears, Christian Yelich, LoCain or kept Josh Hader when all the financial experts said “the Brewers can’t afford him, they HAVE to trade him now (each of the past 3 off-seasons)”
TribeFan88
At 23 wins, Burnes should get to 35 in 2022.