The Reds are open to trading right-handed starter Sonny Gray this offseason, reports Buster Olney of ESPN (Twitter link). However, Olney hears that Cincinnati isn’t amenable to moving either of Luis Castillo or Tyler Mahle.
No deal involving Gray appears to be close, but he’s seemingly the most likely Reds starter to wind up on the move at some point. That’s not especially surprising, since Gray’s also the most expensive of their top trio. Cincinnati has opened the offseason scaling back expenditures, and general manager Nick Krall has spoken about “aligning (the team’s) payroll to its resources.” Early reports suggested a Castillo deal could be part of those efforts, but Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic reported last week that it was doubtful any deal involving the 28-year-old would come to fruition.
Gray looks like a fairly straightforward trade candidate as he enters the final guaranteed year of his contract. He’s slated to earn around $10.67MM in 2022 and remains under club control for 2023 via $12.5MM club option. (Gray would also receive a $1MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade). That’s a reasonable sum for a pitcher of Gray’s caliber, but it also makes him Cincinnati’s fourth-highest paid player. And the three players set to earn loftier sums (Joey Votto, Mike Moustakas and Eugenio Suárez) wouldn’t be easy to move. Votto’s a franchise icon who has full no-trade protection; Moustakas and Suárez are coming off bad 2021 seasons and wouldn’t figure to hold much appeal to other clubs.
On the other hand, Gray offers a blend of fairly substantial but still team-friendly salary that could make a trade realistic. He’s coming off a season in which he posted a 4.19 ERA/3.85 SIERA across 135 1/3 innings. That’s decent mid-rotation production, and Gray was even better over his first couple seasons in Cincinnati. Despite pitching in one of the league’s more hitter-friendly home environments, the right-hander reeled off 231 1/3 innings of 3.07 ERA ball from 2019-20.
Gray has backed up those solid results with strong underlying numbers. While he typically runs walk rates a bit higher than the league average, he also generates an enviable combination of punchouts and grounders. Gray has posted above-average strikeout and ground-ball percentages in each of the past three seasons. His 27% and 47.2% marks in those categories in 2021 were his lowest since 2018, but even those were both markedly above the respective league averages (22.6% and 42.7%) for starting pitchers.
Installing Gray into the middle of a rotation should have plenty of appeal around the league. The Dodgers were already rumored to have interest in that possibility this offseason, and others would join them if the Reds’ front office began to discuss trade frameworks in earnest.
Both Castillo and Mahle could bring even greater returns, as they’re arguably superior pitchers who are more affordable. Like Gray, both righties are controllable for two more seasons, but they’re proceeding through arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Castillo for a $7.6MM salary in 2022; Mahle is projected to bring in around $5.6MM. Both pitchers would stand to earn a final raise in 2023, although it’s unlikely either would match or top the value of Gray’s $12.5MM option that year.
Nevertheless, it doesn’t seem the Reds are preparing to tear the roster down completely. Coming off an 83-win season with a strong core led by their talented rotation, it’s not implausible that Cincinnati could compete next season. A frugal offseason would certainly make building a strong roster more difficult for Krall and his front office, particularly with middle-of-the-order presence Nick Castellanos likely to sign elsewhere as a free agent. A returning group including Castillo, Mahle, Votto, Jesse Winker, Jonathan India and Tyler Stephenson certainly has promise, though. Speculatively speaking, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them target near-MLB players in potential discussions involving Gray to help thread that needle of remaining competitive while cutting costs.
Well, Cincy will always have that first-round playoff loss in that fake 2020 season to remember.
Yes, because you can’t win if you don’t score and they literally did not score at all, despite the fact their pitching staff, literally the only reason how they even made it surrendered just 6 runs, 5 earned in 20.1 innings (4 of them came in the bottom of the 8th inning in Game 2).
I don’t want the Angels to get a bunch of guys all for just one season but if that is how they do it then please get this guy.
Two seasons. Team option means it’s up to the team whether to bring him back in 2023.
@ilovelamp You are right so I guess the Angels won’t be interested since they only acquire/sign pitchers for one season.
he has the lowest ops at the angels stadium. not sure that’s how he pitches once acquired.
OPS against
Playing with the trade simulator his value is likely about Detmers. I’d love to snag Farmer for SS.
Farmer and Gray for Detmers and Canning is about a fair swap on that site. That’s an MLB ready back end piece and near MLB ready middle to possibly top end piece in exchange for Gray and their second best shortstop.
Dodgers could top that without blinking.
BTV’s engine is so broken, but that one actually does feel pretty fair. Maybe another small piece going to Cincy like a AAAA-type utility player or a flier on an unheralded prospect.
Btv engine is much more accurate than random guy on mlbtr opinion on trade value. If everyone had to look at the site once before posting their own ridiculous trade proposals then we wouldn’t have to read half as much nonsense on here.
Theres zero chance the angels move from their young pitchers. Its more likely to look like Kyren Paris and Dshawn Knowles. Also Detmers was a top 15 prospect who had all his control essentially, theres no way they move him.
Gray is what we hope Detmers will become. I’m not a fan of trading from our barely existent pitching pool but to get a quality piece it will require quality going back.
Ad a Reds fan I would make that deal. If the Reds are going to retool then they need to let Barrero start at SS. What would it take to get Adell? The Reds really need a controllable Outfielder.
Gray for an everyday CF would be a good move for the Reds. Last year, CF was a wasteland after Naylor cooled off. Plus, he’s better suited for a corner.
Can’t rely on Senzel to stay on the field, and our Japanese import hasn’t done anything of note since he arrived.
The only stud FA CF is Starling Marte, but the Reds ain’t gonna pay him.
A low cost gamble would be FA Odubel Herrera. He’s a decent enough CF, especially in our bandbox. Figure .260ish with 20 HR and 10 SB. However, would have to bat Odubel down in the order. Phillies used him in the lead off spot because they had no one else. But an OBP that’s barely over .300 won’t cut it there.
I would much rather have Herrera than Aquino in the outfield. This is a player that I can see the Reds going after
Yes a 3.4 WAR stud pitcher for a declining CF who has been barely average the last 2 years…how exciting. It’s alarming how hard they are betting on young pitchers when the Reds have shown a historic inability to develop pitching in house…outside of Cueto and Homer Bailey there have been a ton of whiffs. You can’t spend all your money on bats and expect to win playoff games. Ask Arte Moreno.
Who said Gray for Herrera? Philadelphia outright Herrera on November 6th.
“The Reds are open to trading free agent starter Sonny Gray”
Now teams can trade free agents? I’m liking the new CBA!
Fever – I think the writer kind of missed that one. Some people tend to show themselves poorly when they get in front of a keyboard.
I read that part twice too.
Mr. Franco has been feverishly publishing a lot of articles the past number of days to keep up with the volume of news.
He’s done an excellent job – researching and bringing up things I was not aware of…..and I suspect most readers weren’t either.
He mistyped something – as we all do. No reason to rag on the man.
HAAAAA!
A pathetic job!
Samuel – No need for white knighting, nobody is ragging on him. The world is always better with a little humor, if a mistake leads to a funny result it’s okay to mention it.
I do think every writer should always take a minute to quickly read what they wrote, but this is free content so not a big deal here.
But, but, but, what about Sonny Black?
He doesn’t have to pitch. In fact, he gets to stay home and receive a check for equal or greater value.
I think castillo could beat 12MM if he is an absolute beast in ’22.
And knowing how these tightwads are thinking, 5.6 is clearly WAY too much for mahle.
Or maybe not. From 7.6 to 12 is a pretty big raise, I guess.
Deleted headline: Fifty Trades of Gray.
I wasn’t aware a team could trade a free agent. Now that I know that, I wonder what the Dodgers could get for a Scherzer/Seager package.
Decently priced
Castellini needs to croak
Water reportedly open to being wet
Reds are willing to trade everyone to include free agents
I believe that I read the Phillies are interested in Reds free agent reliever Michael Givens,I am curious as to what Philadelphia will trade to get him.
Gray goes to Houston rather it’s a free agent or Red trading a free agent to Houston lmao! Yankees will avoid him and Red Sox may nibble. I think it will come down to Houston or Texas. Houston is my ideal choice and makes the most sense.
Jays are willing and waiting
Who wrote this article?!
Willing to trade a free agent?!
Rays just spent money on Wander, trade Xavier Edwards, Kiermaier and whoever else they want
Gray for Drew Waters
As a Braves fan myself, no thanks.
I agree at this point rather trade Pache (but not for Gray) and keep Waters.
Same here, Manny. In the right trade I’d be okay if they dealt Pache, but Gray isn’t that trade. Not saying Gray doesn’t have some value, but they could get almost the exact same caliber of pitcher off the FA market.
Who is that pitcher for 12 mil?
Matz or DeSclafani.
Reds are the new Pirates
Just as long as Gray isn’t going to be traded to the Yankees, then I don’t care. I wish him my absolute best elsewhere.
Gray agrees with you.
Add the Reds to the Rockies and Rangers – teams with FO’s that make and talk about making moves that fans can follow…..and come away with no idea of that they’re trying to do.
Can we get legitimate writers?
Open to trading Free Agent Starter?
You must be proud point out others’ mistakes as if you’ve never made one.
Everyone knew what he meant: get on with it.
When I make mistakes, I correct them!
Not post them!
And even if he doesn’t know how,use a proofreader!
No!
I do not tolerate rubbish!
It’s a good thing you don’t let a dime for this sites “rubbish”.
Dude, 20 posters have already mentioned that. The rest just ignored it.
For about 2-3 years it seems Castillo and Gray are getting traded from the Reds. Reds are a ridiculously poor franchise. If you wanna trade players just trade them already, give us fans something to talk about at least.. Hearing about it every single year is so annoying.
It is not like the Reds issue a press release.
Looks like the Reds are planning to contend for a #1 draft pick in 2023.
I have nothing but frustrating memories about gray during his yankee tenure. Some spots just aren’t for certain players I guess. Seemed like a cool dude though
We always talk about the A’s and Rays relocating but what about the Reds?
Too much history and tradition for the Reds to relocate. Reds won’t leave Cinci.
I would be saddened as a baseball fan if they left cinci
Lol, they get good attendance, they just have a cheap owner. A new city wouldn’t change it.
They are open to trading everyone. They have nothing else to do but look busy moving pieces around. They are not trying to win.
Fire sale for the Reds this winter. They obviously are not interested in wanting to make the playoffs and improving there 84-78 record next year
Is hard to be a reds fan , my god why own a team and not what to win
Own a team and make hundreds of millions a year at worst and billions a year at best. The books are closed to us but if teams are selling in the billions the take has got to be good.
The Giants and Jays are my teams, and I should sure love to see either one go after Sonny.
He’s gotta be going out west or down south. He needs that laid back atmosphere so that NorCal life or the retirement community should definitely do the trick. I have a feeling Rays are going all in this season.
Sonny Gray gets traded more than gossip
True dat. Lance Lynn and Sonny Gray have so much in common. All Star pitchers in a land far far away from New York. And some fans out there say that doesn’t matter? But it does matter. It definitely takes a different animal to pitch in NY. I wish Scherzer could sign with the Yankees. He’s definitely worth $40 million a year for 3 years.
Gray to the Mets for Mark Vientos (AAA 3b prospect), cash and a minor league arm?
Reds: Well, we tried for a year or two. Rebuild time! See you in 2028! Maybe again in 2029. Definitely rebuilding again by 2030.
Desclafani re-signed with the Giants
Matz just signed with the Cardinals