In addition to their one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer to Eduardo Rodriguez, the Red Sox have also made a multi-year contract offer to the free-agent lefty, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (via Twitter). Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said earlier this week that there was mutual interest in a longer-term deal between the two parties (via Alex Speier of the Boston Globe).
Proposed terms aren’t clear at this point, but the fact that the Sox are trying to retain Rodriguez on a multi-year pact is nevertheless of some note. We’ve seen players accept a qualifying offer and still work out a subsequent extension in the past — Jose Abreu and the White Sox, for instance — but interest in Rodriguez figures to be robust. The fact that the Sox are looking at multi-year arrangements is at least a sign of a healthy market. Rodriguez has already been loosely linked to the Angels, and MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweets this morning that the Tigers have showed some “early interest” as well.
The 28-year-old Rodriguez was viewed by some as a surprise recipient of the qualifying offer on the heels of a 4.74 ERA this season. Beyond that mark, however, everything in the lefty’s profile looks quite appealing. Rodrgiuez posted career-best marks in strikeout rate (27.4%) and walk rate (7.0%) while effectively tying career-best marks in swinging-strike rate (11.7%), called-strike rate (16.4%) and opponents’ chase rate (33.7%).
Rodriguez was also among the very best in baseball in terms of limiting hard contact (90th percentile average exit velocity, 87th percentile hard-hit rate) and finished the season on a rather strong note. The lefty posted a 3.71 ERA and 2.89 FIP following the All-Star break, including a 2.11 ERA in his final four starts of the season. Rodriguez was pulled early in his Game 1 ALDS date with the Rays after allowing a pair of runs in 1 2/3 innings, but he came back strong in his next two starts, allowing just eight hits and punching out 13 with no walks over the course of 11 innings. In all, over Rodriguez’s past three healthy regular seasons, he carries a 4.11 ERA, 3.63 FIP and 3.95 SIERA in just shy of 500 innings.
“Healthy” seasons is a key distinction, of course. The 2020 season was completely lost for Rodriguez when he developed myocarditis in the wake of a positive Covid-19 diagnosis. Rodriguez detailed the ordeal to James Wagner of the New York Times back in May, explaining that he couldn’t even get through 10 pitches in a bullpen session at one point before debilitating exhaustion overtook him. He was eventually barred from virtually any physical activity for three months, with even minor tasks like walking his dog and going to the supermarket off the table.
Given that context, it’s somewhat remarkable that Rodriguez was able to make it back for a full slate of 32 games in 2021 (including a lone, one-inning relief stint late in his final appearance). He tallied 157 2/3 innings during the regular season and tacked on another 12 2/3 in the postseason for a total of 35 games pitched. The Sox were seemingly mindful of his per-start workload, as he averaged just north of five frames per outing — a far cry from the six innings he averaged in 2019. Still, the overall workload is quite encouraging, given where Rodriguez was a year ago at this time.
All of that will be weighed by teams as they determine how aggressively to pursue Rodriguez, as will the fact that he’s tied to draft compensation by virtue of that aforementioned qualifying offer. Rodriguez has until Nov. 17 to determine whether to accept or reject that one-year, $18.4MM offer.
I hope it’s a good offer, and I hope Eddie takes it
Eddie sucks. This was his performance in a contract year and the best we’ll see. Someone gives him a multi-year deal and he’ll be the Eduardo we all know and love.
Just look at Matt Barnes. He was the Matt Barnes we all know and love for 4 years.., then had a spectacular first six months this season. Why? Contract year. Bingo. Gets the multi-year deal and back to the Matt Barnes we all know and love.
So you think players have the ability to just get much better in contract years and then just decide to not be as good after ?
I mean players know there’s more pressure to have their best year due to being a free agent it is a life changing season for them financially. Some players are drawn to that FA possible contract and succeed, others don’t, and others get that bag and lose the drive they had before to get said bag.
Maybe Gary thinks Michael Conforto just didn’t get the memo that he was supposed to play better in his walk year?
Dusty, not in the same words you are using but yes I believe the concept is true.
If I’m in a contract year there’s a little something extra that I can dig into. If I’ve got multi-year contract security, pressure is just not there to perform the same every day.
You could see it in many first baseman of years past who were Mashers and once they get the big contract things just slip a little. Adrian Gonzalez, Mark Teixeira, and a few others I don’t feel like looking up right now. Why do these guys go from .330 hitters to .275 hitters so fast?
Yes, I think motivation can affect performance.
For the love of the game, Gary’s speaking in general terms and applying it to Eduardo Rodriguez. Just opinions here right? Sure you can pluck out one guy for any argument. Nice job.
Pot, meet kettle. You also picked out one guy and said he “sucks.” I wouldn’t call that “general terms.” At least own your opinion.
I’m starting the discussion because it’s about one guy. You’re refuting it using one guy and…, oh never mind.
By the way, much respect to a subscriber.
Truce? We’d probably have a great time at a game with a beer in hand!
Dusty another point is perhaps you don’t understand the difference between giving 150% and giving 110%.
Or the difference between 4 hours in the weight room and 2 hours in the weight room. Perhaps that mentality of, “I’ve got to get it done with THIS at-bat.., or, okay, darn it I’ll get him on the next one maybe.”
I think those are the differences I’m trying to communicate here. Sounds like a lot of resistance on this thread and I get it because Eduardo Rodriguez has had a lot of good moments for the Sox. I’ve seen them.. I’m a die-hard fan. I get it. and so be it. Just my opinion here.
FTLOTG, ABSOLUTELY !! Cheers !
I mean this has been happening for decades.
Why did you reference yourself in third person? Did you forget to log into your alternate account?
Hahahahaha Gary sucks
Fletcher, yup sure did. Caught me.
machurucuto, I’ve heard worse. Point taken. What about baseball.., what contract are you giving Eduardo Rodriguez?
I’m not a GM… I’m just a fan
I’m not a GM so I can not give him any contract… If I were a GM I would never give any player a contract longer than 3 years.
Tell me you’re a casual without telling me. His xERA was 3.55, xFIP was 3.43 and his FIP was 3.32 accompanied with the worst BABIP of his career at .363 and he came off serious health problems. Posted a career high in K and BB rate while being in the top 10% in hard hit and hard contact rate. Casuals like you just look at era and “he sucks.” Matt Barnes was good the first 6 months of the season? Wow so how long are actual seasons because once the spider tak checks started in June Matt began to suck so by my count that’s month 3. Getting a 28 year old Lefty with advanced numbers like that and a history of pitching well in the AL East is invaluable especially as a #3 at less than 20 mill a year.
SoxEaglesKnicks, great points indeed. You’re looking at checking for foreign substance in gloves, and I’m looking at the ink drying on a brand new multi-year contract. You’re a sophisticated fan and I’m a casual fan. Thank you for your comments.
Gary,
The Sox actually did the right thing here. By saddling him with the QO, they lowered his market value to other teams knowing they were planning on a multi-year offer that will give him financial security while likely at a lower AAV than otherwise possible.
Gary, with all due respect, Erod won 19 games in 2019, sat out last season due to mycarditis and this year was very very good the second half. Saying he stinks is very ignorant
123redsox.., he stinks. If you want him you can have him but I’m not behind signing him back. I say let him walk, find somebody else unless he comes cheaper than expected. It’s just how I feel watching the guy pitch.
And yes I truly believe guys try a little harder in their contract year and then the effort slips a little once they have the security. It’s just what I believe. Call it ignorant, fine. I’m just a die-hard fan paying attention to the market and commenting on a website message section..
The good ol “he stinks” with no other context.
Brandon, the good ol “you’re wrong” without any context. Nice driveby.
I say that about Mr. Al all the time….no one ever asks me to back it up…..lol
Or ,is that because.all the cool kids have me muted?
Gary Busey?
Kyre Irving ?
ERod missed a full year and had heart issues as well. He came back at less than his 2019 season as any rational being would have expected. He can be a very good #2 or #3 starter, and that is why there is early interest. I hope the Sox work out a deal for him. I would expect an off season where he can actually work out and get stronger will make a huge difference.
Ray win, I understand what you’re saying and I applaud the man for reaching back and giving what he had. No problem with the man.
I just lean towards letting guys walk when there’s doubt about future performance. I would just rather go with another guy. Pedro, Nomar, Jason Bay, Johnny Damon, Ellsbury.., that’s just the top of my head. Red Sox have a history of letting guys walk (or traded) before the big payday and I think it’s worked out.
The Mets and the Yankees and the Phillies sign these guys and pay way too much and they don’t fulfill what was expected. I feel the same way about Eduardo Rodriguez. Most of you guys don’t. That’s fine. I’ll come in here all day long and let you know what I think because that’s what the message boards are for.
I even lean towards going with the unpopular opinion. I like making big bets. Payoff can be fantastic when you’re the only guy saying something. You experience a lot of rough seas but that’s what ships are for. Not staying tied up in the harbor safely.
Sox have missed the boat too (Panda, Hanley, etc.). You play in a big market, you will occasionally get burned.
I agree with you expressing your opinion. It’s why I read through all of the comments on posts that I care about. I see a difference between ERod and the others you mention because of age and years of service. I was glad to see Ellsbury and Damon leave. Pedro and Nomar I was sad to see leave, but understood and agreed that they should not get multi year year contracts. I think ERod is different.
Gary, I think you are missing that Eddie was seriously sick with Myocarditis (inflammation of the heart) sounds pretty serious to me. I think it was a problem this year with his stamina. I watched most games this year and including a lot of Eddie’s games. I noticed there times he looked tired in the mound he had no zip on his fastball and he got rocked. There were other times he would have the 95 mph heater and the offspeed pitches with it and looked ace like. I believe the biggest factor this year was this. I remember watching games and he as throwing 88-89 mph and just looked terrible so isn’t it possible that his stamina was effected by the Myocarditis? Is it possible we are going to see a much better Eddie next year since he is distancing himself from that illness and will have a real full offseason this year. I think that is the case and why he is going to be a pretty hot commodity in free agency. I highly doubt he accepts the QO but if he does I will be happy to slot him in behind Sale and Evo as very solid third in the rotation with number 2 upside.
Bruin1012, excellent points and excellent post. I’m definitely glad to see Eduardo Rodriguez healthy and pitching better. Hope he continues to do so. If all you guys are right then let’s hope he pitches for the Red Sox. If he signs here and I’m right then who cares it’s not our money and management does something else to improve the rotation. No big deal.
Bruin1012 – Has COVID gone away? Ask Aaron Rodgers.
Now ask yourself the question: If you are a GM who is not supposed to exceed the cap and your current payroll for 2022 is roughly $37M under the limit would you invest a multi-year contract with a career 3.81/1.30 starting pitcher who was severely impacted by COVID a year ago knowing it will take 1/3 to 1/2 of the remaining money? Risk should be part of the equation and NOBODY is higher risk than E-Rod and from a performance standpoint he’s the 5th best SP returning in 2022 unless Whitlock becomes a SP then he’s the 6th best SP eating up nearly as much money as Eovaldi your second best SP.
You support so many of Bloom’s moves. Please help me understand the upside of this deal. I don’t see it. It’s an expensive, highly risky move with very little upside considering the limited money left since $16M is still going to Price who is in LA. This forces Devers to stay at 3B instead of finally moving him to DH. It prevents picking up an impact player like Story to play 3B. It prevents Boston from grabbing a guy like Verlander or Scherzer on short contracts. What is the upside?
Even if E-Rod doesn’t relapse or have another heart issue, he’s still a very mediocre SP that deserves no more than his current $8M to produce his career numbers. Since there is no upturn in his numbers there is no reason to expect them to go up. Even his best year was mediocre except for the wins thanks to the run support by an excellent hitting team
Show me the way. I can’t see ANY upside to making this deal.
Note to Steve Adams:. please add a character limit to posts.
@KD17 I see your point but mediocre to me is Rick Porcello. Rodriquez is better than Porcello. Eduardo Rodriguez is nowhere near spectacular but his stats are good outside of ERA and he has a high k rate, which Bloom loves.
I wouldn’t want to overpay (I do think 16 million a year is a lot) but I don’t mind signing him for a bit less and he does add talent.
pwndroia – If it was only ERA I could be more forgiving but his WHIP which dictates the chances of scoring for the opponent is really, really high compared to good pitchers. WHIP is H/9 + BB/9. A good pitcher usually has a H/9 below 9.00. E-Rod’s career number is 8.7 so that’s decent. Sale’s is 7.3. Add that E-Rod’s career BB/9 is 2.7 and his WHIP ends up 1.313. Sale’s BB/9 are 2.1 leaving his career WHIP at 1.042. That means E-ROD gives up 27% more base runners per inning. That’s the difference between an elite pitcher and a mediocre pitcher.
If you consider the 2022 staff to be Sale, Eovadli, Houck, Pivetta and Whitlock, Is it smart to spend Eovaldi money on a guy that ranks 6th in that group when there is a need for a 3B so Devers can move to DH and JD can be traded for a closer or prospects?
E-Rod’s inconsistency makes him completely expendable. Houck and Pivetta are improving. Eovaldi is looking like the guy that signed for $17M and Sale needs time to regain his control. With a lifetime 2.1 walks per 9 IP his 2021 2.5 needs to come down. Also, by spotting the ball better in 2022 everyone will see his 9.5 Hits/9 move back to his standard of 7.3. Sale can’t continue to have 12.0 hits and walks per 9 and be effective. His career norm is 9.4. Whitlock’s first year produced a 10.0 which is outstanding. Houck was at 10.1. Pivetta was at 11.8 but his hits per 9 were at 8.0 leaving his area of improvement being control. His 3.8 BB/9 is worse than E-Rods!! That’s terrible but an off season focused on fixing it could make him a viable #5 SP. Eovaldi’s H/9 was 9 but his BB/9 was 1.7 so his 10.7 has room for improvement in the hits/9 area but he was excellent in 2021.
E-Rod’s BB/9 over the six years is 2.7, 3.4, 3.3, 3.1, 3.3 and 2.7. Was the 2021 number a fluke or the start of a lower plateau? Everyone thought 2019 provided Devers with a new plateau of errors since it was his lowest year but he fooled everyone by raising his errors the next two years. No way to say if E-Rod will continue at a level below 3.0 BB/9.
To offset his added control in 2021, E-Rod had his highest H/9 with 9.8. That number more than offset his gain in control leaving him at a consistently bad WHIP. Expecting a guy to suddenly get better without even a hint of improvement in his numbers is nothing more than faith. It’s not based in scientific evidence.
I wasn’t much of a Porcello fan either. His ERA in Boston was 4.43 and his WHIP was 1.256. Those are comparable to E-Rod in 2021 but 2021 was a bit worse than his normal year so E-Rod’s numbers in Boston are better than Porcello’s in Boston. Ironically, Porcello’s numbers in Detroit and NY are worse than in Boston so for his career he definitely wasn’t as good as E-Rod. It just goes to show you what a great offense can do to support mediocre pitching!!!
Porcello’s 3.15 ERA and 1.009 WHIP in 2016 makes his career numbers suggest that his normal year was even worse than his career totals suggest!! Take out the CY year and he really sucked.
KD see my reply below I just disagree with you on this and me be as simple as I think there are much better indicators of future performance then ERA and Whip. I actually think WHIP is a better indicator of future performance then ERA. I don’t think Boston is going to get Scherzer he prefers to stay on the West Coast and those teams can pay him. I don’t think that Verlander is coming to Boston and I view him as even more risky then Eddie. You will be happy to know that I don’t think Boston is going to have Eddie pitching for them next year because I’m willing to bet that someone is going to offer him more then Boston will.
KD yes I think Bloom is doing a solid job so far I also think that DD did a really good job but those two things are not mutually exclusive. So yes I vehemently disagree that Bloom has been terrible and needs to be fired but has hit on all of his moves of course not most GM move are misses and that applies to all GM’s without exception. I think CB is building a team here and I expect next years team to better then this years from a talent perspective and so on.
KD,
Whose in your pen if Houck and Whitlock are your starters?
Dewey –
My hope for the pitching staff is the following 13
1 – Sale
2 – Eovaldi
3 – TBD (Verlander Rodon or another quality FA. Not E-Rod)
4 = Houck
5 – Whitlock
6 – Pivetta
The bullpen is
Closer – TBD
Set-up Men – D Hernandez, Sawamura, Taylor, Davis, Valdez, Brasier
My hope for the hitters is the following 13
DH – Devers
C – Vazquez and Plawecki
1B – Dalbec
2B – Hernandez
SS – Bogaerts
3B – TBD – Go big or go home!! Jose Ramirez
LF – Verdugo
CF – TBD – FA or Trade
RF – Renfroe
BENCH (3)
B1 – Arroyo
B2 = Duran after he hits .300 in AAA
B3 – TBD
I’ll be honest, the relief could be bolstered but the money will continue to be tight since $16M is being paid to a guy pitching in LA.
The key I think is to think out of the box and go get a game changer at 3B like Jose Ramirez. His control years are almost over and he’ll be a Free Agent so give him a 2 year bump and sign him for 5 to 10 years at fair money. Going to a contender might help keep the latter years at a more reasonable price. Great defender fixes the long-term Devers problem. Best bat on the team and a great compliment to Devers and Bogaerts. He effectively would jump the talent level to where it was before Mookie was given away and he’s Latin so the front office and ownership will be happy!!
After ERod got over the dead arm that bothered him early in the season he was looking more like his old self. The contract year had nothing to do with the health issues that carried over from 2020.
Rsox – Actually, he may have looked to you to be more like his old self but in fact his old self was exactly like his current self. Completely inconsistent. Hot streaks followed by cold streaks. His start mimics many previous years and each year the total season ends with a 3.80 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. His annual totals are consistent but his in season numbers are like a vicious roller coaster ride. If people only want to remember when the roller coaster is at the top then they can justify a $18.4M salary. Unfortunately, he should be paid for the whole season which takes his pay back down to around $5M to $8M per year.
I don’t think the Red Sox believe ERod is worth the $18.4 million salary either, thats why they are negotiating a new deal hoping to avoid it. If accepts it hope for the best, if he doesn’t and leaves at least they get something out of it
Rsox – I hope you are right. I doubt that E-Rod will accept the money I would offer him. If I were him I’d jump at the contract with the most money guaranteed no matter how many years..
Why? Because he will prove he’s nothing more than what he’s shown so far. He’s a mediocre SP that might be a #4 on a bad team, a #5 on an average team and a long-reliever on an excellent team.
Rsox14 hours ago
I don’t think the Red Sox believe ERod is worth the $18.4 million salary either,
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The number itself is fairly meaningless. ERod, Conforto, Iglesias, and Taylor are unlikely to get $18.4M. They will all decline the QO because they are looking for longer contracts, not one-year contracts.
I’d be shocked if ERod averaged $18.4M, but not would be at all surprised with $60M/4.
That said, for a pitcher that projects to 3+ WAR, %18.4M is still a good deal for the RS.
Matt Barnes was a good reliever before his contract year. He had a good start the first half but fell back to norm near the end. That was expected, at least on my end.
If you think Eduardo Rodriguez sucks, you are misinformed. Although the ERA doesn’t show it, his FIP is good as well as his strikeout rate. His ERA doesn’t tell the whole story. Walks have been an issue for him but he seems to have a better handle this past year. No, he’s not a number 1 or 2 but he doesn’t “suck.”
pwndroia – Can’t use FIP. Not until Devers get moved to DH. He kills the entire staff not just E-Rod. Also, ERA is one half of the two key numbers to evaluate a pitcher and E-RODs WHIP which represents the opportunities he provides to other teams to score is consistently horrendous.
Saying E-ROD sucks for a $18.4M starting pitcher is completely fair. Saying he’s a mediocre SP that deserves $5M to $8M per year to be a #5 SP is also fair. Bloom’s assessment of E-Rod is far worse than DD’s assessment of Eovaldi. Eovaldi proved in 2021 that $17M was a fair price for his services. E-Rod in 6 seasons hasn’t come close to Eovaldi’s 2021 numbers which earned him $17M not $18.4M.
Bruin1012 – ERA and WHIP in a vacuum don’t predict the future. What they can do is establish trends for a pitcher’s performance. They are numbers unlike WAR and other modern metrics which are based on ever changing variables and constants. They are pure statistics and can suggest trends based on enough data points.
Six years of performance is enough data points. When the ERA and WHIP are pretty much flat during the entire time it is irresponsible of a GM to suggest next year will be anything other than flat. So lets guess right now.
I predict E-Rod will have an ERA of 3.80 and WHIP of 1.30 in 2022.
Ok now you predict with your better indicators. There are no guarantees with any predictions. Heck a moron like JoeBrady spouts crap all the time about what’s going to happen in the future and if by luck it happens he pretends he had some insight rather than pure luck. It’s just like flipping a coin and bragging that your heads choice was brilliantly planned because it was correct.
Statistical trending involves tracking data points across time and attempting to predict the future. Some trends are up, other are down and yet others are flat and don’t change much from year to year.
If it rained 30 inches in Phoenix 6 years in a row which prediction makes the most sense?
A) It will rain 30 inches next year
B) It will rain 20 inches next year
C) it will rain 4o inches next year
NONE of the answers are anything more than a prediction which could be wrong BUT selection A has a greater probability if no events impact the following year to significantly change the prediction.
E-Rod ERAs are 3.85, 4.71, 4.19, 3.82, 3.81, 4.74
E-Rod WHIPS are 1.290, 1.299, 1.282, 1.265, 1.328, 1.389
Do those numbers vary greatly? NOPE
Are those numbers good for a pitcher making $18.4M? NOPE
Are those numbers good for a pitcher making $10M? NOPE
So why in the world is anyone supporting the idea that a magical wand is going to be waved and his numbers will suddenly become good?
He is what he is and six years proves it. Just like Devers’ defense.
So many argued with the facts for so many years because they WATCHED him get better and they trended short hot streaks to be his future but in fact his numbers are incredibly bad and very consistent.
Devers Errors/Chances; 14./149, 24/326, 22/431, 14/128, 22/438
Fld %/League .906/.956, .926/.958, .949/.958, .891/.958, .950/.962
Amount below league average 0.50, 032, 009, 067, .012
As you can see there has yet to be an improvement to the point of being league average!! Benny had one league average hitting year and he was sent packing. Devers has FIVE atrocious years of fielding but doesn’t get moved to DH. FIPs are worthless with Devers in the field. Red Sox pitchers should be steered away from increasing their ground ball percentage while Devers is at 3B.
Being the worst at a position for 5 years does not suggest things will change!! Being mediocre for 6 years at pitching does not suggest things will change.
Fans will be fans and as much as you root for E-Rod to be good, the facts are that it hasn’t happened. Likewise, as much as you root for Devers to learn how to field well, the facts are that it hasn’t happened.
As a fan you should never tolerate bad decisions like playing Devers at 3B or paying E-Rod elite pitcher money. Remember 18 pitchers in 2021 made QO money. THAT’S ALL!!
E-Rod is nowhere near a top 18 SP but there are some out there that could be gotten for close to the money wasted on E-Rod.
If the Red Sox want to throw money at a man who has a 6.35 career postseason ERA and who can’t pitch against the Rays (5.21 ERA regular/5.40 ERA postseason) or Astros (8.53 ERA regular/6.43 ERA postseason), I endorse this terrible plan.
‘Except for the 4.74 ERA, everything else in the lefty’s profile looks quite appealing’….that’s like saying except for the gaping bleeding hole in your head, the rest of the body is okay!
All of the other “appealing” analytics are stated in a league where hitters either hit a home run or strike out on average..swinging from their heels…..wouldn’t put to much stock in a strikeout rate when the league on average goes from 20% at best, to 30% at worst….batters are routinely helping pitchers rack up insane strikeout rates in MLB these days!
They give more and more credit to pitchers for strikeouts but it’s seemingly okay for hitters to strikeout more and more.
rocky7 – You need to actually go to his numbers. They stink across the board for anyone making more than $5M a year!!
ERA 4.74 in 2021 is not far from his career (6 years) ERA of 4.16
WHIP 1.389 in 2021 is not far from his career WHiP of 1.313
I have no idea what metrics you are looking at but these are the two most key and telling stats to review a SP.
Add to that he’ll be 29 and is already starting to decline since he is past his prime year of 27. Throw in shaky health, inconsistency throughout EVERY season he’s pitched and you have a very, very mediocre pitcher who is being offered big money when Bloom is all about making low cost deals.
Pray someone else offers him more so Boston can free up money to invest in quality players not mediocre players.
Assuming doctors have cleared him on the heart issue, I’m more concerned with the knee as he ages. That said, I’d prefer Houck and Whitlock at the back of the pen. With that in mind, ER is an inning eater at worst and a number 2 at best.
Dewey – If COVID doesn’t bite him in the hind quarters or his knee then your assessment of him being an innings eater is fair. Also, based on 6 years of data about half the time while eating innings he’ll give the team a shot at winning if they can score over 3 runs. That said, I can’t figure out how that could possibly translate to $18.4M a year contract for E-Rod. There has to be cheaper innings eaters.
I like Sale, Eovaldi, Houck, Whitlock and Pivetta and adding another SP or two for depth is a good idea. Spending $18.4M should slot the pitcher ahead of Eovaldi and E-Rod would slot after Pivetta based on 2021 numbers and after Houck if you go by career numbers. That’s my issue with the contract for E-Rod. It’s a massive over-pay when money is still tight thanks to paying LAD $16M on the Price dump.
I think bang for the buck is important when the CAP is being enforced by ownership. Right now being at $191.65M instead of $173.25M assuming E-Rod takes the QO significantly impacts the level of improvement that can be gained with the additional money from Peddy’s contract dropping off the books. Bang for the buck. I’m not seeing it and that angers me since Benny at $6.6M was considered expensive yet his numbers were no less at his position than E-Rod’s are at his position. None of this makes financial sense.
See my post above KD. The QO should lowered offers from others and reduce the AAV in a multi year deal. Let’s see this play out.
Sale and Price were both garbage in the postseason as well so should we cut Sale? You’re seriously calculating his all time stats vs those two specific teams? I realize 38 games are played vs them but chances are 25+ of his starts will come vs other teams lol. He’s 28, a lefty and his xFIP FIP and xERA are all well below 3.50 abd those are more accurate barometers of how he pitched not era.
The name holds up
ERod had one tough game this post-season, the other two were excellent. You need to watch the games, not just read the Baseball Reference page.
Also ERod played Yankees this postseason. Conveniently you left them out of the equation. Aren’t they the toughest division rival? Vs. Yankees 8-6 3.72 ERA, 2.31 k/bb.
dennyd = watching games versus using Baseball Reference stats is an insane suggestion. It puts emotion into the decision instead of facts. Your perspective as a fan is fine but to determine good deals, you must use facts not feelings.
SIX full years of inconsistency from a journeyman starting pitcher isn’t worth anything close to a QO or anything over $8M a year. History with the Yankees is a plus but the Yankees aren’t the future threat in the division and if they do become the future threat it won’t be with the hitters he did well against.
You said it all with his two outings were excellent and one wasn’t. Had there been four it would have been two and two which is EXACTLY why he isn’t worth more than $8M a year. You can’t WATCH a good game and extrapolate that performance to a career. The numbers show that for EVERY good game he has a bad game during a season. YES, six years of being a split performance guy screams mediocrity with upside if he can ever eliminate the bad outings or simply reduce them significantly. After SIX YEARS he hasn’t figured it out so it’s like hoping Devers will become an adequate fielder some day. It’s not going to happen so he should be moved to DH.
E-Rod is a waste of money who should have been passed on last year!!
KD. Why watch and why play the games? Why not just buy Strat-o-matic which I loved in college? I guess games don’t need to be played and we can use computers and video to simulate games. The game has taken a beating since Bill James became a guru. Anyone remember his Temperature Gauge? I think it was 2011 when it nearly ruined Sox broadcasts.
Dewey – Core stats like batting average, fielding percentage and runs produced have been a key part of the game for over 100 years. Watching the game is great but emotions get tied up in the performances and their timing. E-Rod has an outstanding game and people remember it. He gets bombed and people push that to the back of their memory if they like him.
I simply look at the numbers knowing what I’ve seen from E-Rod and come to conclusions. I feel confident in my evaluation of E-Rod because John Smoltz said exactly what I think about E-Rod in one of the broadcasts. He loves his stuff but he can’t figure out how it doesn’t translate to better results. He’s right the results are bad but his stuff looks good. Inconsistency was pointed out by John. His inability to locate consistently throughout a game or a season. It’s that lack of continuity in his focus that takes his great stuff to mediocre results.
I’m not using modern metrics to evaluate him, I’m using the same stats that were used to evaluate me nearly 50 years ago. ERA and WHIP are not end all be all stats but they are great barometers of performance during a season or career. If E-ROD didn’t have an ERA over 4.00 I could support him more. If he didn’t have a horrendous WHiP then I could support him more. But the facts are the facts and as good as he looks, he can’t consistently perform at his peak level. I liken him to Stanton in hitting. When he’s hot you want him and when he’s not you want to unload him. Would I ever endorse paying Stanton big bucks? Heck no. Same for E-Rod.
I hope it’s 3 for $45 mil, and if he doesn’t take I’m looking forward to having him pitch against the Redsox!
I think 3/45 ($15m Aav)is too low… maybe a 3/51 ($17m Aav), but he probably wants and gets a 4th year guarantee. 4/$65-68m is my guess.
I think a 4 year with a 5th vesting option would be good, so long as the value on the 4th/5th years goes down.
I like 3/51 OK, 4/64 better, and 5/72 the best. Just front load it somewhat and make the 5th yar an option that vests with… I dunno, a 2-3m buyout.
Rodriguez reminds me of Jon Lester. Let’s hope the Sox offer to Rodriguez is not in the same low-ball-spirit as their attempt to sign Lester long term.
Rodriguez reminds you of Lester? now that’s the funniest comment ever…and they had no intention on resigning Lester that’s why they low balled him and then later traded him…Rodriguez is no Lester
Country, I disagree. Appreciate you explaining the Lester scenario, too, as if that was an unknown. When Lester pitches his best he throws to both sides of the plate and he’s aggressive. When Rodriguez pitches his best he throws to both sides of the plate and he’s aggressive. In closing, “Rodriguez reminds me of Jon Lester.” No further questions, your Honour.
30 Parks – For me Lester and E-Rod can’t be compared.
Lester had good years and E-Rod hasn’t. E-Rod, when he’s right, looks better to me than Lester ever did but that doesn’t happen often enough. Lester was far more consistent.
Lester was an excellent pitcher who went downhill whereas E-Rod is a consistently mediocre pitcher with very little year to year variance.
E-Rod is closer to Perez in performance than Lester. Lester had good years and Perez and E-Rod have never had good years. Brian Kenny throws out the 19 win season since the Red Sox run support took a very mediocre pitcher and allowed him to get 19 wins despite his mediocre pitching. Give Sale the run support E-Rod has received in Boston and he’d have two or three Cy Young awards by now.
ERod should be so fortunate to have Lester’s career. That said, I thought Boston’s offer then was reasonable. I still do so I guess I’m still wrong on that one
Again, I disagree. Perez is the definition of average and there’s far more upside in Rodriguez. “Never” had a good year is a tough evaluation, KD, both 2018 & 2019 were solid years from Rodriguez. He missed a full season of progress in 2020 – that’s no small detail. I see similar approaches in he & Lester. Not everything is captured in tedious analytics.
Dewey – Thank you for pointing out that E-ROD after 6 years of mediocrity will not ever compare favorably to Lester. Lester began his career with ERA+ values above 124 once he became a regular starter. That lasted 4 years then he had an off year and followed it with 8 above league average years including 3 all=star appearances and 3 times in the top 10 in CY voting. E-ROD does NOT have that in his future.
Lester and E-Rod started their careers at 22. E-Rod just completed his 28 year old season.
Lester by the end of his 28 year old season had the following stats:
85 wins 48 losses in 188 starts with an ERA of 3.52 and WHIP of 1.22
E-Rod by the end of his 28 year old season has:
64 wins 39 losses in 153 starts with an ERA of 4.15 and WHIP of 1.31
Looking at the stats in detail the gap between Lester and E-Rod is even bigger than I thought!! I’m one of the believers that Lester’s offer and Lester’s desired salary should have been split in half and agreed to much like Mookie should have been offered something half way between what he wanted and what Boston offered. Keeping legends in house makes sense to me. E-Rod is far from a legend. Benny was more of a Boston potential legend than E-Rod..
30 Parks – I’m fine with you thinking a 3.80 ERA and 1.313 WHIP is good.
It’s not for me. It’s the numbers I expect from a #5 SP.
Also, solid years should NOT get you $18.4M it should get you something below $10M. Check others with SOLID years like E-Rod. That’s what they are making. Thus, this is a huge over-pay in my book. Do the comparisons. You’ll see. E-Rod’s numbers are mediocre or league average. Not even as good as Benny’s were as a LF. That’s how grossly over paid E-Rod will be since Benny got sent packing with better numbers and only a $6.6M salary. It’s a travesty. It’s also reflective of the current bias in the Red Sox organization. A white E-Rod or a black E-Rod wouldn’t be offered this type of money. Racism rears it’s ugly head yet again in the Boston Red Sox organization.
Reject it. Test the market.
He seems like the “major upgrade” the Angels are talking about to me.
As a Red Sox fan I’d like to have him back, but he’s not an $18.9 million pitcher, but he’s a solid number 4 imo
So the 6th place Cy Young finish before he got ill, (2019) is common for #4 starters?
For a team with the spending power of Boston yes
At the beginning of next season 2019 will have been three years ago, that’s a lot of time in professional sports, I like the guy, that’s why I said that I hope they do resign him
Sorry, 4 seasons
4 seasons? What? You cant count next season as a past season, even if you go by the ‘beginning’ the season still hasn’t happened. Kinda messed up exaggeration.
You’re right my bad
Rick Porcello won a Cy. that didnt make him an ace.
Porcello wasn’t considered a “4” either. I didn’t say he was an ace, I said he wasn’t a number 4. You get a F for reader comprehension
You get an F for missing the point. Cy Young votes dont make you a good pitcher, same as not having them doesnt make you a bad one. its a poor metric.
so 1 great season and he deserves ace status? he is NOTHING more than a #4 on a big spending team…period
Did someone refer to him as an ‘ace’?
Yet he was the #2-3 on the big spending Sox wasn’t he?
#2 before Sale came back and #3 after Sale returned and #3 in the playoff rotation.
Btw…$18.9m/yr isn’t “ace status” dollars, that would be more like $30-37m/yr. $18m is mid tier #2-3 dollars.
countryj: “Ace status” where’d I say that? You want him for a minor league contract.
1 Sale
2 Verlander
3 Evo
4 E Rod
5 Whitlock/Houck/Richards
Michael: Verlander has pitched ONE game since 2019 or in your world “4 seasons”. He is not a #2 in that rotation.
1. Eovoldi
2. ERod
3. Houck
4. Whitlock
5 Richards
*In my scenario, Sale is injuried and Verlander never recovers from injuries.
Richards is gone
Richards could come back. Stickler was money and his desire to still start. Too bad because he was solid in the pen. Please no JV. He’ll get offered more and comes with too much risk.
Fair enough
Just out of curiosity why are you down on sale? Sure he wasn’t his self at the end of the season, but he is coming back from Tommy John surgery, I think he will be fine next year, probably with innings restrictions in the first half, do you know something I don’t about his health?
Also Verlander is just kind of a pipe dream for me as a fan, you could replace him with any other “ace”…. I’m just hoping that they hire somebody of that type of production
Micheal – I like the way you think BUT there is not enough money for your suggested starting staff without going over the cap because Bloom wasted $16M on Price.
1. Sale
2. Verlander
3 Eovaldi
4. Houck
5. Whitlock
Works for me. Then trade JD for a closer or prospects and you still have enough money to pick-up a good 3B so Devers moves to DH.
Sale will be fine and Verlander will take roughly 2 months to get back his pinpoint control just like Sale had to work his way back into shape like all the other successful TJ surgery elite pitchers.
I didn’t realize there was still money on the books for David Price
dennyd – The 2019 travesty where a mediocre starter got 19 wins thanks to his run support shows just how screwed up Wins is as an indicator of pitching performance.
Best year ERA 3.81 WHIP 1.328 NOTHING MORE NEEDS TO BE SAID.
He sucks and deserves no more than $8M.
Nice attempt at a misdirect with the BS CY voting. hahaha
Seems like a durable, consistent #3 pitcher on a very good staff or #2 on an okay staff. Not exceptional, just consistent. Most teams would do well to have him. I can easily see 4-5 years at $15 mill. AAV.
That’s the price range I was thinking about, maybe with some escalators, but I think 15 million a year would be fair for him, granted I’m a bartender not a general manager
Michael – Don’t sell yourself short for being a bartender. Reviewing Bloom’s moves to date maybe a bartender would have been a better way to go!!
Think about the fact that only 18 Starting pitchers made $18.4M or more in 2021 and E-Rod got offered that much. That’s not a very smart move based on E-Rod’s historical mediocrity. I vote for a bartender to replace both Bloom and Cora. It can’t be a step down!!
I hope Boston resigns him so that the Angels have no shot at signing him.
I’m glad E-Rod’s stats beyond E.R.A are being pointed out, because E.R.A is totally flawed. Especially when E-Rod had a terrible defense behind him. His walk rate was down, home run rate was in line with what it usually is, and strikeout rate was up. His FIP looked good. Those show a much better picture.
I am sure the Sox would love to keep E-Rod long term. An offer of say, 4 year/$60 mil is totally acceptable, and one he should take, and one the Sox should offer.
To go from being out a full season, with what he was going through, and then to be thrown into a contract year, what E-Rod was able to do was actually pretty great. Locking him up and giving him some security, may be what he needs to take the next step.
duffy – Seriously? I explained why what you said is a complete misinterpretation of the stats in a different response. Devers playing 3B is a big part of the problem for every pitcher on the staff not just E-Rod.
When you look at a pitcher’s walk rate and point out that it went down but you don’t point out that his hit rate went up more than the walk rate fell you are misleading people trying to understand the numbers. It’s pure deception on the part of the person presenting half the story.
Rationalizing the numbers is a fans prerogative but the facts are the facts and E-Rod has crap stats for a guy about to make $18.4M in 2022. Trying to suggest that ERA is a bad pitcher evaluation stat shows a complete lack of understanding
of the game. Nobody in their right mind would use the logic that several people have used to rationalize a mediocre pitcher like E-Rod to be anything more than league average and nobody pays a league average player $18.4M.
Bloom screwed up again unless someone bails him out and signs E-Rod to get him off the Red Sox books for 2022. Numbers don’t lie and numbers say he’s a 3.80/1.30 era/whip starting pitcher. They are a dime a dozen.
Better chance of success if you avoid injury prone players. You’re better off going with Kyle Davies or Colin Mchugh type rather than high risk high upside guys like Rodriguez
Was he injured in 2021? 31 starts. He sat out 2020 due to covid related health issue but not injured. 2019 he started 34 so that’s not it either.
The #1 rule of GM’ing is “play nobody out of position and never less than average defense at each position”
#2 rule is never add injury prone players, no matter how good the stats are
#3, add only talent…never untalented players
Camden453 – Commentary of the day!!! OUTSTANDING!!
Can you send a memo to Bloom explaining the 3 top runs of a GM!!!
Well what can we say about Eddie. There is a contingent out there that thinks Eddie sucks because he has a high ERA however I believe that is misguided.and here is why.
First we have to remember he missed the entire year with complications from Covid (Myocarditis). It was thought that he might not be available to later in the baseball season but he rallied and was on the team the whole year. There were times that he looked strong and pitched like the borderline ace he was in the 2nd half of 2019 and others times he looked tired and just not very good. That may have been due to the recovery from Mycarditis sometimes he just didnt have it. That happens to all pitchers sometimes they dont have it and they fight through but in Eddies case sometimes he just looked tired. With that being said here are some facts to consider when saying the Eddie sucks:
* K’s per nine are 10.65 best of his career
* Walks per nine 2.68 the lowest of his career
* GB percentage 43.2% better then all but one year
* HR per 9 better then career average
* FIP was 3.55% that was the biggest disparity from ERA in all of baseball indicating the left side of the field hurt him more then any other pitcher on the Red Sox
* His batting average of balls hit in play was .363 by far the worst of his career indicating some bad luck on his side.
There are a few negatives
He gave up the higher barrel p[ercentage and hard hit percentage then all but one year and i’m sure that contributed to his high babip in some way.
The bottom line is overall this guy was a much better pitcher then his ERA indicated imo. I know that some people will look at his era and say he sucks but that is just not the case. My guess is he will be fully recovered from the Myocarditis next year and he wont have those games when he just looked exhausted and he will pitch much better. I think it is a mistake to let him go and I think Bloom was absolutely 100% correct to give this guy a QO. The proof in that pudding will be played out when he signs with another club after not taking the QO which I think he turns down. The Tigers were already know to want this guy and not the Angels who knows who else. I hope Bloom can work out an extension but if not the Red Sox will get draft compensation. Bloom you did right on this one extending the QO.
One thing that would be interesting to see, if anyone keeps stats on it, is the number of weak contact hits he allowed against the shift. Cora seemed to use the shift even more this past year than anytime in the past. For a pitcher who is usually in the top 10% in the league in weak contact that can be detrimental, because weak contact more often than not goes to the batter’s opposite field and if the IF is in a shift there’s frequently no one there to field that weak contact.
If they aren’t already doing so the team should start tracking how many hits a given pitcher allows that go against the shift. Using a shift shouldn’t be a rote thing, that’s done regardless of what pitcher is on the mound.
Bruin1012 – Below is a very simple refute of your argument
1 – Ks per nine is just one small component of how an ERA is determined. If a guy gets ground outs or fly outs or strike out they all count as outs and are reflected in his terrible ERA.
2 – Walks per 9 is 2.68 compared to Eovaldi who had 1.7 (1 less walk per game). Is that stat meaningful? Only if it goes down over time so the WHIP goes down.
3 – Ground Ball percentage is meaningless in a vacuum and is also reflected in the ERA. Modern metrics completely skew the importance of how an out was made. On a team that sucks on defense like Boston a higher GB should be considered bad!!
4 – HR per 9 being normal puts no context to how bad normal is. 1.1 compared to Eovaldi’s 0.7 shows yet another reason he doesn’t deserve Eovaldi equivalent money. Also, HR/9 in a vacuum is meaningless since it too is part of the ERA which is still very bad.
5 – FIP and GB are linked and like I mentioned Devers at 3B kills FIP so it’s meaningless as a stand alone stat. He produced more balls hit to Devers and got lots of errors. How can that be interpreted as a positive?
6 – Batted balls hit in play also relates to Boston’s atrocious fielding led by Devers. Basically 3 of the 6 pluses you listed all revert back to a bad Devers at 3B. We all know that so lets get that problem fixed and bring some meaning back to those metrics. Also, ALL your points are considered in calculating an ERA and WHIP so if those two MOST KEY stats are bad that’s all one needs to say the pitcher didn’t perform well.
E-Rod had flashes of brilliance and just as many disastrous games. For six years he’s been the same pitcher. Looks great but performs well every other game. That explains the mediocre ERA and WHIP and that’s all you need to know to conclude he’s not a SP 1,2,3 or 4. At best, he’s a SP 5 like Perez or some of the other slugs Bloom has brought to Boston. Whitlock would be a better starter than E-Rod so save the money and begin the season with Sale, Eovaldi, Houck, Whitlock and Pivetta. Then, use the E-Rod money to get a 3B to replace Devers and move Devers to DH and trade JD for a closer like Hendricks.
E-ROD is a complete waste of money. Pray for the QO paying off by having some other GM screw-up and contract E-ROD. That’s the ONLY way Bloom comes out ahead in this situation.
KD with all due respect strikeout do matter for the most part you are either a strikeout pitcher or you rely on soft contact or another words you are crafty.
The reality is Eddie is both he struck a career high 10.5 batters per inning and walked a career low 2.68 batters per 9 as well as limited hard contact in the top 90% in baseball. This is a good thing. It appears that he was extremely unlucky and all the advanced pitching stats that quite frankly are better then ERA seem to agree. you name it FIP, XFIP, Sierra, FIP- they all paint a different pitcher. In fact the more and more I look into his numbers the more impressed I am especially when we factor in the eye test. There were times this year that Eddie looked like he shouldn’t even be a big leaguer his fastball was sitting at 88-89 mph that is just way lower then I have ever seen him and when that happened he got rocked he was a terrible pitcher no question. There were other time he was throwing 94-95 crisp swing and miss fastaballs along with a great changeup and quality slider. When that happened he was borderline ace like just like he was for the 2nd half of 2019. Why so jeckyl and Hyde well maybe he is just inconsistent an that is all he will ever be. There is another explanation possible though and that is that he was not fully recovered in his stamina and just didn’t have it more often then in the past because ill tell you what when he had it he was easily a number 2 and when he was throwing 88-89 he was batting practice. SO if you believe he will throw consistently 88-89 then yes Bloom should take a pass. I don’t expext that to happen.
I believe that most GM’s in baseball agree with me I’m guessing he wont accept the QO and he will be signed for a contract as high as Eovaldi or higher on the open market. When this happens then how does Bloom look for giving the QO? The bottom line is the market will say what he is worth and I guarantee you its a hell of a lot more then 8 million per year. Finally I’m not going to compare Eddie to Nate. Nate had a career year and yes he looks like a steal at the contract he signed however Eddie being worth the same or more then the Eovaldi contact is not mutually excusive and in the case yes I believe Eddie is worth a one year 18.4 million contract and is worth a multi year contract but now that he is on the free market I think you will be surprised at what he ultimately gets I wont be.
Bruin1012 – All I ask is that you tell the whole story not just the parts that support your belief.
His Ks/9 went up. Great! Was it reflected in his ERA? YES
His BBs/9 went down. Great! Was it reflected in his ERA? YES
Was either reflected in his WHIP? YES, the BBs/9
So why care about stats like Ks per 9?
It can be argued effectively with Devers playing in the infield that high strike outs reduce the chances for pitchers to have the ball hit to the defensive nightmare named Devers. So a strikeout is an advantage over a ground ball pitcher for Boston.
Is there much difference between a fly ball pitcher and strike out pitcher? Yes but it’s much smaller than a GB pitcher versus a K pitcher. Why? Because the fielding percentage of fly balls is roughly .025 to .040 percentage points higher than ground balls. Since the only chance for a runner to make first base when a K happens is a passed ball, there is less risk of mistakes with a strikeout pitcher than a fly out pitcher which has less risk than a ground out pitcher.
Yes, that theory is solid EXCEPT strike out pitchers throw more pitches thus there is more wear and tear on their arm and if a pitch count is used they often need more relief help than a fly ball pitcher. Ground ball pitchers, especially with Devers on a team, tend to run into the same problem strike out pitchers have in that more pitches are needed when Devers misplays a ball and more stress is on the pitcher with the additional base runner.
Thus, while E-Rod may have increased his strikeouts he reduced his innings per game putting more stress on the bullpen. While he did reduce his walks per inning pitched he more than offset it with additional hits per inning pitched thus raising his all important WHIP.
E-Rods stamina is a very tough topic to be definitive about. First, he was told in the press that the doctor told him to not exercise for 6 full months in August of 2020. That meant he should have started exercising in February of 2021. He did not follow instructions and the Red Sox did not intervene in his aggressive comeback attempt. If he had followed orders, he would have missed as much as Sale and made his first start in late July or early August based on the normal off season and spring training time table. That would have meant Bloom re-signed him knowing he was only going to pitch two months for $8.3M in 2021. That’s why I recommended he be non-tendered last December.
E-Rod’s recovery time was cut short which is always a risk for relapse or restarts. He got ready early in the year and put up decent numbers in April due to adrenaline and a need to prove himself. Then in May, June and July we saw the worst of E-Rod. Whether it was fatigue or simply E-Rod being E-Rod because his historical stats showed he is known for his good month bad month pattern. For whatever the reason, the Red Sox would have been better off spending the $8M on a healthy quality starter instead of E-Rod. Then, as E-Rod does annually, he got on a hot streak and had several good games with several bad games hidden inside his hot streak. August and Sept numbers were more in line with what fans hope from him but he seldom delivers. To put into perspective how badly he vacillates up and down in performance I have pulled his first half and second half numbers. Please note that despite having an excellent Aug and Sept his second half numbers were just slightly above his career numbers which are mediocre.
First Half = ERA 5.52 WHIP 1.372 6-5 record thanks to run support
Second Half – ERA 3.71 WHIP 1.412 7-3 record thanks to better support
His Dr. Jekyll Mr Hyde behavior in the second half is very telling. TWO excellent months were offset by ONE terrible month. That’s his career in a nutshell. You can’t take a snip-it of his season and claim he’s great because he performed well in a short time frame. He has 6 years of history that say for every great segment of pitching he will provide an equally bad segment of pitching that will lead back to his current averages of 3.80 and 1.300 ERA and WHIP.
Last point, I don’t care how hard he throws. Whether he’s completely back with his velocity or not he’s a bad investment. There are no signs of him being more consistent and to win you need consistent excellence not infrequent excellence followed by bad starts. If your opinion is that he’s worth more than $8M great. That doesn’t align with his history of performances but it’s your opinion and facts clearly aren’t going to change your mind.
If you believe all GMs agree with you and not me that’s also fine. I don’t need to have people standing behind me to state the facts about a player and that’s all I’ve done. I’ve brought to light how incredibly mediocre E-Rod is and how incredibly undeserving of $18.4M a year he is. That’s all I set out to prove and did.
If E-Rod gets lots of money that’s great for E-Rod. If someone else gives it to him I will acknowledge Bloom for playing this one correctly. If Boston gives it to him I will blame Bloom for yet another idiot move. It’s been 2 years and still no magic from Bloom but many fans want the Red Sox to win so badly they are willing to go over to the dark side and support the pretender. Let me know when the Red Sox win another ring. I’ll check back in the 2030s when both Bloom and Cora will be gone!!
Eddie seems like if he could put it all together consistently he could be a 1 or 2. However the way his career has gone, he has been more of a solid 3-4.
Excellent pitcher. Sign him. Slot him in the middle of the rotation. Win a championship. That was easy.
id bet he comes back. E-Rod’s got a good thing going in BOS
4/$80 million
That would be pretty ridiculous
he’s a #4 at best…Mr Inconsistent…every few games he’ll pitch great and everyone says how awesome he is…the only signing of him I want to see is a sign and trade..I’d rather bring in Verlander and Kershaw
He has a .703 winning percentage over his last three years. Maybe explain how he wins so many games, if all he does is throw a great game occasionally.
I think 4 @ 17-18 AAV might get it done, but I’d still want him at 5 @ 20 tbh
While I would like to see E-Rod come back to Boston on a multi-year deal, it has to be at a reasonable price. I was thinking the Eovaldi deal (4/$64M) is a great place to start and maybe push it as far as 4/$72M but that’s it. If other teams are willing to pay $20M+ per year for him, let him all and take the draft pick. Then they could sign Jon Gray to replace Eduardo. Gray should jump at 4/$60 or 4/$64
*Let him walk and take the draft pick
Bloom was right to offer him a QO. At least a few teams will hesitate to sign him. I like him, but anything past $60M/4, and I’d have to start looking at Syndergaard. His numbers are really good, but the myowhatever should be considered a risk factor.
For anyone calling ERod a #3/4 pitcher, those aren’t his numbers. Since 2018, at a minimum of 400 IPs, ERod’s ERA ranks #40. His FIP ranks him #16, and his xFIP ranks him #26. He’s #9 in wins, despite missing 2020. And he averaged 29 GS per season. He is a clear #2.
There is a reason why MLB-R projects him as a $70M/5 candidate.
Always a good sign when the former team, in this case the Red Sox, extend an offer. When a big market club like the Sox don’t offer a new contract, I always wonder what they know that we don’t.
I look at that also (actually, I look at everything). When teams like LAD and Houston, don’t offer a QO to guys like Kershaw & Verlander, it tells me that they know something I don’t know.
Same thing as when a playoff contender like Cleveland trades away guys like Kluber and Clevinger. You always have to be suspicious, but if you can understand a team’s motivation, like the WS trading Sale to rebuild, I feel more comfortable.
If I was him, I accept the QO, stay put in Boston who appears to be a v clear contender and then, work out an extension on top of that before the season starts. They’re also said to be in the Market for a top SS and might move Xander to 2B. I would leave him put and just sign a guy that can play 2B like Baez or Semien !
to4 – Clear contender? Seriously? 4th best talent in the division. Won’t make the playoffs since the miracle performance happened in 2021.
You are right he should accept the QO since it’s more than double his worth!!
FYI…. if BOSTON gets stuck with E-ROD there is no money for a quality player like Semien or Baez. That’s why having Whitlock as the 5th SP makes sense since that frees up money of a quality player.
3 years, $54MM. Look him up during him prime years but don’t commit too much that it hurts you getting more help, especially should E-Rod go down with another injury.
Al Kaline said he would be.embarassed to strike out like these guys do…or that he felt.embarrassed for striking out.