The Red Sox are making an effort to retain free agent starter Eduardo Rodríguez, but the club has myriad avenues to potentially address their rotation. Right-hander Garrett Whitlock could be an option, as chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe) the team is open to the possibility of stretching him out as a starter in 2022.
The 25-year-old Whitlock spent essentially his entire career in the Yankees’ system as a starter, topping out with 120 2/3 innings across three levels in 2018. After plucking him away from their archrival in the Rule 5 draft, the Sox moved him into a bullpen role. That’s typical for a Rule 5 draftee, since teams often prefer to break those unproven players in with lower-leverage innings. But Whitlock proved to be one of the better Rule 5 selections in recent memory, earning himself a role of higher import as he continued to thrive. Ultimately, Whitlock tossed 73 1/3 innings across 46 relief outings (with another 8 1/3 frames in five postseason appearances). He posted a 1.96 ERA with a strong 27.2% strikeout percentage and a tiny 5.7% walk rate.
Moving Whitlock out of the relief role in which he’s been so effective isn’t without risk, but public scouting reports have long suggested he might be a viable starter. His debut campaign offered support for that idea, as Whitlock worked with a three-pitch mix and demonstrated plus control. He did have pronounced platoon splits — lefties hit .293/.349/.475 off him, while righties managed just a .199/.243/.278 mark — that could suggest he’s better deployed situationally, but it’s sensible for the front office to keep the rotation possibility open.
Looking outside the organization, the Sox are also among the teams with early interest in free agent starter Steven Matz, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Boston is certainly one of many clubs in contact with the southpaw’s representatives at Icon Sports Management, and Sherman adds the Tigers and Angels as other potential suitors, in addition to the incumbent Blue Jays.
Matz is coming off his third solid season in the past four years, having worked to a 3.82 ERA/4.12 SIERA across 150 2/3 frames with Toronto. The Jays didn’t issue him a qualifying offer, so signing Matz wouldn’t cost a team draft pick compensation. Entering his age-31 campaign, he looks to have a strong case to land a three-year deal.
While the Sox have seemingly focused primarily on the rotation during the first couple days of the offseason, Bloom tells Speier (separate post) that Boston could look into options at second base as well. It doesn’t seem bolstering the keystone is an absolute must, though, as Bloom went on to express faith in Christian Arroyo’s ability to handle the position. The 26-year-old was limited to just 181 plate appearances this past season because of injuries, but he hit at a slightly above-average level (.262/.324/.445) in that limited time. Jonathan Villar, Josh Harrison and César Hernández are among a few of the lower-cost free agent options available.
I’m not sold Arroyo is the best answer at second base but he’s better than wasting more money on those other three options which aren’t substationally better (if at all).
I have no problem using Whitlock as a starter, but if that is the case, we need bullpen guys. At times throughout the season, Whitlock was the ONLY effective bullpen arm.
I want to see Arroyo get a chance next season. If he can stay healthy I think he can be good for us. He showed flashes of the top 100 prospect he used to be
Lol
He just hasn’t stayed healthy. While I don’t expect Iglesias to repeat his September torching with the bat, he seemed like he found himself again in his “home” uniform and I’d like him to be on the 26 person roster next year.
I also think keeping Iglesias is a great move (depending on the cost” as he can spell 2B and SS at an incredible defensive level. That’s something Cora lives for being an ex-infielder. As far as his offense, he’s been much better then the “all glove no bat” he was when he was with us in his youth. He hasn’t been below .255 since he left and has an overall average of .277. He has several .300 years when he got at least 400 AB’s. I think this is a no-brained and I think he wants to continue the reunion as well.
I would definitely give Arroyo a chance at 2nd. He doesn’t have to be any more than average, so long as he is making minimum wage.
I know the smart thing, and the fair thing, is to give Whitlock a shot at the rotation. But the dude was such a beast out of the BP. In 19 outings, with 2 or more innings, he allowed 2 ERs and had an ERA of 0.42.
Baseball is getting so weird now with starters and relievers. Makes you wonder if you should just peg a number of innings for each guy and then figure out how to use them. You can probably have a whole bunch of guys at multiple roles over the course of the season.
whyhayzee15 hours ago
Baseball is getting so weird now with starters and relievers.
=========================================
I consider it more like football, with the mix of WRs, or TEs, or RBs, depending on field position and situation, as well as nickel backs, dime backs, slot corners, etc.
When I was growing up, FB was almost everything was a 4-3-4 defense.
I tend to agree about keeping Arroyo. I didn’t mean to sound like I didn’t like him. He’s solid but I think there are better options… we just may not be in the position to pay for a second baseman. Arroyo gets the job done.
Think Iglesias. I think he’s be as cheap a starter as there is out there
Arroyo is a solid player, I can see him hitting .275 with 15hr full time
Yeah I think so too. He just needs a chance, if he can stay healthy
Iglesias really seemed to enjoy being back where he broke into the big leagues, then became a ultimate cheerleader/coach for the postseason run…
Why not try to bring back Iggy?
I’m on board with that, depending on price. Iggy might still be able to land a starting gig, and we couldn’t pay him starting money.
I like the idea as well
I don’t think he’s going to want a large deal. He’s made for Fenway as most Cubans live for the large crowds. He’s at his best when the park is full and the tension is high. God I want to keep him so bad. It’s probably evident by my texts. I just think this is a great relationship on both sides and he’s got a lot to bring to the table. Just like Rich Hill years back. Excelled with us for a short time. Except Hill turned it into an awesome and lucrative career.
How can this writer say Matz had 3 solid years. Before this you he was 0 & 5, 11 &10 & 5 & 11. His last 500+ season was 2016. # 4 or 5 pitcher at best.
W-L record is not really a good way to evaluate a pitcher. For example deGrom doesn’t get wins. That doesn’t mean he sucks. Matz has been quite serviceable over the last 3 years.
Did not know there were any humans left citing W/L as an evaluation of player performance
Sorry dude but I don’t know if there’s ever been more of a facepalm comment than this.
Give him a break, he’s a Mets fan.
Yeah, but you’d think that Mets’ fans of all people, who’s ace barely breaks .500 every year, would know that.
You’re giving Mets fans too much credit.
So an 0-12 pitcher w a 4.20 ERA is good? I think you have to look at the big picture. BABIP, WHIP, Opp BA against. All that. Someone can have a decent ERA but maybe give up a ton of unearned runs. Doesn’t mean he wasn’t giving up a lot of hits.
Are you talking about “wins” as an effective way of evaluating a starter?
And even if wins mattered… he was a Met; of course he had a losing record.
Whitlock looks like the real deal when it comes to being a major league pitcher, but I don’t know if I’d be messing with his role after seeing the success he had in it last year. Let him be a Hader-esque fireman, that role is among the most important on a team nowadays. You never know how potential poor results in the rotation could impact his performance after a move back to the bullpen.
Daniel Bard
Yeah… but Derek Lowe did just fine.
Joba
In a weird way he reminds me of John Smoltz. Will do well in either capacity. However, 150+ innings of solid results are worth more to a team then 80+ assuming we have addressed the bullpen to absorb this incredibly efficient loss to it. I actually think Garrett Richards deserves some consideration.
Red Sox Off-season
1) Sign Rondon 3/60
2) Sign Rizzo 2/30
3) Sign Jose Iglesias 1/5 (bench)
4) Acquire Ketel Marte for Verdugo, Dalbec, and Gilberto Jimenez
5) Resign E-rod
Lineup will be strong enough to allow Duran to develop hitting ninth
1) Kike CF
2) Marte 2b
3) Xander SS
4) Devers 3b
5) JD DH
6) Renfroe RF
7) Rizzo 1b
8) Vazquez C
9) Duran LF
I’d trade JD for some pitching and resign KS
Not a bad video game idea. Unfortunately we don’t live in MLB the show. Duran’s chances of being a starter on a championship caliber team are dwindling. I understand the raw intrigue, but defensively he is as bad as it gets and he has struck out wayyyy too much at every pro level and was an automatic out in his age 24-25 season. They also won’t invest in Rizzo with Dalbec being serviceable with upside and cheap as a bridge to one of their top prospects in Casas who will be up at some point in 2022. They also won’t give up all those assets for a second baseman when they have a solid internal stop gap in arroyo to 2020 first rounder Nick Yorke who was their best minor league hitter in 2021. Also, which Rondon do you want to give 20 mill per year to? I hope it isn’t Jose or Hector.
Whitlock has really pronounced splits if you break out his numbers by days of rest. Specifically, he was merely good on 1 day rest. The bulk of his production came on 2+ days rest in medium length relief appearances out of the pen. I actually think it’s tough to figure out how to optimize him. He threw back-to-back exactly one time, and he also rarely faced a hitter a second time (and never a third time). I think he’s a good pitcher, but usage played a role as well. I’m inclined to leave him in the pen, but I want to aim for counting on him as the 3rd best arm there if possible.
I would love for Whitlock to get another pitch Just having three pitches limits his arsenal.
Cesar Hernandez on a cheap one year deal wouldn’t be terrible. If not move Kike back and lets see what Duran can do (though better option would be keep Schwarber, play him in LF and let Verdugo play CF)
I think maybe they should use Whitlock and Houck together in tandem to fill one rotation slot – let one start and go 4-5 innings and use the other to finish the game. You could even alternate who gets to start. It might also give the bullpen every 5th day off (or mostly off). Maybe start the season that way and see how it goes, and if they both do well then you could give them each a rotation slot if another starter goes down. The goal should be to develop them both as starters unless and until they show they can’t handle it. Deal with shoring up the bullpen as a separate matter.
I totally understand where you come from but that’s a sad commentary on how weak pitching is in today’s game.
Boston should have a pretty quiet offseason outside of bullpen upgrades if they resign ERod. Rotation should be Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Houck, Pivetta. Lineup is set with Hernandez-CF, Bogaerts-SS, Devers-3B, Martinez-DH, Verdugo-LF, Renfroe-RF, Dalbec-1B, Vazquez-C, Arroyo-2B. Potential upgrades come from Duran in the OF and Casas at 1B/DH. They should not be after any big contracts on the offensive side that would block Casas or Mayer.
I agree Bloom should not get a first baseman in free agency because Casas is almost ready. I think he should be up sometime in June and Bobby D can handle first until then. As for not blocking Mayer he is years away from the majors so I wouldn’t so very little if any consideration should be given to that more then likely anyone they would get now would probably be moving off the shortstop position when Mayer is ready.
Mayer, worst case scenario would be 3 years. You dont sign one of the triple digit million SSs to a 7-10 year contract to move them in 2-3 years.
I think you are ignoring the idea of Mayer moving away from short. Which I believe ultimately will happen. Not because he is not capable of playing short, but because I think he forces his way to the majors in 2 or 3 years and I think bogaerts will still be around.
I think Bogey moves to third or second. Devers to DH, Dalbec could take third, Casas first so Mayer, Downs, Bogaerts figure out SS and 2B and one is moved. Why give out a mega contract with that your near future options?
Mayer is an 18 year old kid who got his first taste of pro ball he is a few years away at least probably won’t be ready for at least 3 years. It’s important to remember that he’s just a kid we have no idea how he is going to perform we can hope but I would guess at best he will be three years away if he does that he will be 21 or 22 very young to get to the majors. This shouldn’t preclude the Red Sox from signing one of the prominent free agent this offseason they aren’t blocking Mayer.
Bruin1012 – 100% right!!.
Mayer should arrive in time to replace Bogaerts as a low cost option at SS in 2025. Yorke will replace Kiki in 2024. The key right now is to get Devers off 3B with someone that will impact the team both offensively and defensively. Jose Ramirez is the perfect target. Give Cleveland Downs, Wong, Verdugo, Potts and Seabold for him. That way Bloom can take credit for gathering the players to land a huge star.
Once you get a 3B of the future like Ramirez and you have 2B and SS planned out nicely as discussed then Boston’s future turns around to being positive again. Dalbec and Casas can compete for the 1B spot to fill out the infield and provide depth. Then a fast leadoff man Center Fielder needs to be procured long-term or at least until one of the internal CFers gets good enough to take over in CF. Starling Marte is PERFECT for the job. Ramirez and Marte would more than make up for the loss of JD, Verdugo and Schwarber. The defense would be so much better with Ramirez at 3B not Devers. Kiki could move to 2B and at that point the weakest two players are Renfroe in Right Field and Duran in Left Field (excluding catchers). It would cost very little to find someone to place hold in LF until Duran is ready.
There isn’t anyone in the minors today that is in a position to be a major factor in 2022. Yes, guys like Seabold may play a small role in 2022 but Duran was the guy on DD’s promotion calendar to be an impact in 2022. Bloom really hasn’t added anything that is close to ready other than Seabold. Downs still can’t hit AA or AAA pitching so he’s at least a year away. That’s why it’s smart to dump all the over-rated crap players Bloom has added to the minors for a guy like Ramirez.
Ramirez needs to be signed long term NOW. That guarantees a shot a ring going forward. Without that talent boost, the Red Sox will limp along like so many other teams that strive for consistency but not greatness. DD knew how to win and Bloom needs to learn how to win not just make the wildcard and declare success. DD already had two Division Championships by now.
Disagree, Mayer is already a top 20 prospect in MLB. He looked really good moving from high school to pro ball. Unless he has an injury, 2025 would be a disappointment. Looking at the total picture… Bogaerts, an all star SS now, Devers an all star 3B now, Dalbec off a solid rookie season at 1B with 3B ability, Casas a top prospect at 1B about to bust on the scene, Downs a top prospect at 2B, Mayer a top overall prospect at SS, Yorke a top prospect at 2B… only so many spots in the IF and DH. Spending on a big free agent IF would be insane. The future is bright, spend around your young core strength.
I agree. Think Carlos Correa. As soon as Mayer adds some bulk and gets reps he’ll be in Fenway. Dansby Swanson is another And I know Swanson played college ball so it changes everything. Bottom line is by EVERYONE’s evaluations Mayer is going to be at Fenway sooner rather than later. I can’t wait.
You are forgetting about nick Yorke who had the best offensive 2021 in their minor league system
And Yorke, another reason not to add a big IF contract.
Never been a fan of trying to convert a good reliever into a starter. Seems to fail at a high rate.
Any good starter should be able to be a good reliever. Any good reliever can’t necessarily be a good starter but if starters aren’t neutered, anyone who can be a starter is more valuable as a starter.
But he’s been a starter up until this year. I think he’s worth a shot.
I think it fails if you try and move a pitcher from a reliever to a starter that doesn’t have the starters repertoire. Starters need to have more pitches in their arsenal and normally can’t rely on two pitches. Whitlock is a three pitch pitcher he should be OK I think I would at least tell him to get to start and then stretch him out in spring training and see how he looks.
The OPS splits (.520+ for righties, .820+ for lefties) seem a bit wide to slot him into the rotation right away. But maybe we’ll see the RSox modify his approach or add another pitch to his repertoire for attacking lefties. With the command that he already has, I sure look forward to watching him pitch next year, regardless of role.
Whitlock has a one year history so projecting on that is pure guessing. If he can perform in a starter role that is far more needed and more rare than a reliever. Depth in Starting Pitching is a strong formula for success. If the team had Sale, Eovaldi, Houck, Whitlock and Pivetta as their rotation it would be a fairly inexpensive rotation of five starters. E-Rod signing would swing it back to the expensive old days when Boston had Porcello as an over=pay like E-Rod would be. That mistake would limit the hitting money available or closer money available.
Worrying about a guy like Arroyo is like worrying whether your shoe laces look good. Very, very insignificant and probably the weakest starter if he starts. To improve the team heading into 2022 talent upgrades need to be made not just on offense but on defense. If Kiki continues to be a .250 hitter then he should bat 9th and play 2nd base. That makes both Arroyo and Iglesias bench guys. If Devers isn’t moved to DH then the defensive metrics for the team will continue to be horrible whether Arroyo or Iglesias play 2B and Kiki plays CF.
Ask yourself if a starting team with Verdugo in LF, Kiki in CF, Renfroe in RF, Devers at 3B, Bogaerts at SS, Arroyo at 2B and Dalbec at 1B with Vazquez catching and JD as the DH can compete with the TOR, NYY and TB line-ups. Sure, everything went well last year and every break went BOS’s way but expecting TOR to not improve with their young core players having more experience is unrealistic, thinking the Yankees won’t spend big bucks to change their team make-up isn’t realistic and adding Severino for the full season will make them stronger along with the pitchers they developed in an off year. TB will do what it always does and compete until the playoffs so making the playoffs will be even more challenging in 2022.
Last year’s miracle season can not be considered a given for 2022. No significant injuries is never likely. Starting pitching inconsistent with their history by guys like Richards and others isn’t likely. The only thing BOS should be able to rely on is their hitting. As long as they have Devers, JD and Bogey they have a core set of hitters to generate big run totals. If Renfroe can put up another career year that would be great. Dalbec needs to continue to outpace Devers’ numbers at the start of his career to show everyone he’s the future star of the team. Verdugo needs to step up and be something better than a league average player. And most importantly, Sale and Eovaldi need to stay healthy for the team to be competitive in the AL East.
I wouldn’t call last year a miracle, before the season I said they had WC potential and they hit that. Made a bit longer run in the playoffs but that happens. Not everything went right, Dalbec and others were a hole at 1B until the final 2 months, Gonzalez/Cordero/Santana were all busts, Houck was limited as was ERod, Sale missed most of the year. Reasons they can be just as good next year, if Dalbec has really figured it out, a full year of a healthier Sale, a full year of a healthier ERod if he is back, letting Houck pitch more, finally potential upgrades if Duran steps up or if Casas comes up.
Most people said they couldn’t compete with those teams last year. They are not perfect, powerhouses either.
Last year was good, but not close to a miracle
On the offensive side, I don’t think anyone out-performed. Going from 5th in scoring to 4th in scoring isn’t much more complicated than JDM coming back and Bloom signing Hernandez
On the pitching side, the only ones that stood out was Eovaldi with his 32 starts was big, as well as Whitlock. My prediction of 85.5 wins last year was based on a top-3 offense and a league-average pitching. We were pretty close to that, so I am not particularly surprised.
Going forward, our offense should be identical, with some slight regression from JD and Hernandez, and maybe slightly better results from Vazquez and whoever replaces Marwin.
On the pitching side, we should improve. Richards & Perez’ starts should be replaced by Sale and Houck, and ERod should be back to his usual sub-4.00 ERA. I’d offset that with possible less starts from Eovaldi.
Aside from re-signing ERod, our only concern is adding a closer, and maybe another BP arm.
ffrhb14Sox – You aren’t related to JoeBrady are you? Great guess that 2021 was going to be a good year. Did you guess that in 2019 and 2020 and just forget to mention that when pounding your chest about your predictive abilities? We call that a JoeBrady!! hahaha
There was no WC potential other than 162 games would be played and with a ton of luck they might outplay 3 better teams to make the playoffs without Chris Sale for at least half the year. That’s what was known before the season.
What went right?
1 – Next to no injuries
2 – More than 1/2 the team had career years
3 – The bad pitching staff was able to pitch far over their heads and the remaining guys from the 2018 team pounded out runs fast enough to create wins from losing pitching performances.
4 – Several of the many revolver door pick-ups by Bloom had good performances while the others got shown the door.
5 – Cora didn’t get caught cheating
The things you said went wrong don’t make sense.
Dalbec has started faster than Devers and should have been applauded not called a hole at 1B. The guy was a rookie. Expectations were more than met by his performance in 2021. Blame his slow start on Cora for not playing him enough the year before to get him ready for 2021.
The busts you point out weren’t bad luck it’s called having a bad GM. E-Rod was good luck because he shouldn’t have been pitching based on his heart condition. E-Rod got paid $8.3M despite not being in a position to put up his normal mediocre numbers. Sale missed exactly the predicted number of months recovering from TJ surgery so there was no luck involved. Everyone knew a year prior that it would be at least July before he could return. Houck wasn’t limited, BOS limited Houck. That was their choice to keep an extra year of control. That wasn’t bad luck.
3 hitters and 2 pitchers carried the team through the all-star break. Nobody expected Eovaldi to be the old Eovaldi but everyone was happy to see him return to form despite predictions. Barnes had the best 3 month stretch of his career. Nobody saw that coming. JD, Bogey and Devers all had outstanding first halves. Most folks had written off JD because of the video room impacting him in 2020.
So what part of the mountain of fortuitous events makes you think 2021 wasn’t a miracle season? And why would anyone project a similar mountain of fortuitous events happening in 2022? You might want to stock up on shamrocks because the current talent level of this team is still fourth in the division just like going into 2021. It’s possible to be incredibly lucky two years in a row, but not likely.
Everyone needs to ignore this troll. KD predicts 69 wins. For most of 2021 he states everything Bloom and Cora do is terrible. Now his explanation for 92 wins followed by 2 winning rds in the playoffs is “miracle”. Ignore this guy. Responding to this kind of garbage only makes him worse.
Ahh, that guy who is always right and everyone who disagrees with him is lucky if he is wrong. I called them intentionally not competing in 2020 and where what I thought for 2021 was right based on upgrades across the rotation (ERod who wins double digits yearly, 1/2 a year of Sale, Houck) and a bounceback from JD and Dalbec’s potential.
Now to clarify your errors.
I didnt say Dalbec went wrong, I said 1st base until July was a hole. If Dalbec can repeat what he did in the last third of the season over a whole season, that’s a big upgrade in a good offense.
Who had a career year? Renfroe and Whitlock? That’s not near half a team. Vazquez was down, Dalbec was giguring it out, 2B wasn’t good, Bogey and Devers were who they are, Verdugo, Hernandez had average years and JD bounced back as expected.
Yes Evo may not make all of his starts but Sale should make more starts. It was expected he would miss half a season, that doesnt change that expecting a full year from him is an upgrade. ERod, if back, should be stronger since he had a fullish season this year. Houck was limited by strategically holding him out early in the year, then limoting his pitch count. Easy upgrade if they let him pitch more this year.
Also, if Duran learned from his short stint and takes a step forward, he takes games in CF that can moke Kike to 2B if Arroyo isnt doing well. Final kicker, Casas waiting in the wings, he looks like the next real stud ready to contribute.
They are in the toughest division in baseball but they should compete unless the opposite of your “miracle” occurs and everyone is injured or has down years.
OTOH, his 2021 Red Sox prediction was one of the worst in history. That’s worth at least some comedy-gold points.
KD is a troll who tries to dominate the site by getting true Sox fans to treat his insane rants seriously. The only way to make him stop is ignore him.
“5 – Cora didn’t get caught cheating” I didnt read anything else after that, just shows how biased you are.
medic87 – True I’m biased against cheaters. You think that’s bad? So you support cheating? Nice. We don’t need to discuss anything further.
ffrhb14 – You can rationalize the skill sets of the Red Sox and their opponents but maybe you should take a hard look at the starting teams for each ball club going into 2022.in detail before concluding the team will make the playoffs..
C – Zunino TB, Sanchez NY, Jansen TOR, Vazquez BOS, Rutschmann BAL
1B – Choi TB, TBD NY, Guerrero TOR, Dalbec BOS, Mountcastle BAL
2B – B Lowe TB, Torres NY, Biggio TOR, Arroyo BOS, J Jones BAL
SS – FRANCO TB, TBD NY, Bichette TOR, Bogaerts BOS, Martin BAL
3B – Wendle TB, LeMahieu NY, Espinal TOR, Devers BOS, K Gutierrez BAL
LF – Meadows TB, Gallo NY, Gurriel TOR, Verdugo BOS, Santander BAL
CF – Kiermeyer TB, TBD NY, Springer TOR, KHernandez BOS, Mullins BAL
RF – Arozarena TB, Judge NY, THernandez TOR, Renfroe BOS, Hays BAL
DH – Diaz TB, Stanton NY, Grichuk TOR, Martinez BOS, Mancini BAL
Winners by position
Catcher – Too close to call
First base – Guerrero TOR
Second base – Lowe TB
Shortstop – Franco or Bogaerts but NY hasn’t signed one yet
Third base – Devers best hitter worst fielder
Left Field – Meadows TB
Center Field – Springer TOR
Right Field – Judge NY
DH – Too close to call and Cruz hasn’t signed yet
Worst at each position
C – Again too close to call
1B – Choi TB
2B – Arroyo BOS
SS – Martin BAL
3B – Gutierrez BAL
LF – Verdugo BOS
CF – Hernandez BOS
RF – Renfroe BOS
DH – Stanton NY or Grichuk TOR
Now the Starting Staffs
SP1 – Glasnow TB, Cole NY, Ryu TOR, Sale BOS, Means BAL
SP2 – McClanahan TB, Severino NY, Berrios TOR, Eovaldi BOS, Akin BAL
SP3 – Rasmussen TB, Taillon NY, Manoah TOR, Houck BOS, TBD BAL
SP4 – Baz TB, Montgomery NY, Stripling TOR, Whitlock BOS, TBD BAL
SP5 – Patino TB, Cortez NY, Pearson TOR, Pivetta BOS, TBD BAL
CL – Anderson TB, Chapman NY, Romano TOR, Barnes BOS, Sulser BAL
5 best non=closer relievers
TB – Kitterage, Fairbanks, Feyereisen Thompson Poche
NY – Loaisiga, Green, Peralta, German, Gil
TOR – Mayza, Cimber, Richards, Merryweather Borucki
BOS – Taylor, Hernandez, Sawamura, Brasier, Davis
Winners by position
SP1 – Cole NY or Glasnow TB or Sale BOS
SP2 – Severino NY or Eovaldi BOS
SP3 – Manoah TOR or Houck BOS
SP4 – Baz TB or Whitlock BOS
SP5 – Pearson TOR or Patino TB
CL – Chapman NY
Non-Closers – TB
Note how weak the pitching is in the division. That’s what allowed BOS to have the year they had in 2021. That will also be the way BOS could have an above .500 year in 2022.
NY and Cashman will determine if the Yankees are a threat in 2022. If he chooses poorly like he usually does, TB and TOR will be the bigger threats to BOS not making the playoffs. If Cashman changes up his decade long ignorance for talent and adds Freeman or Rizzo, Seager Scherzer and Starling Marte. NY will dominate the division. Their ownership does not care about he CAP and it’s now nearly a decade and a half since they won so money won’t stop them. Only bad decisions by Cashman will as it has for over a decade.
If the Red Sox continue to kill the pitching staff by playing Devers at 3B then Starling Marte makes sense as the most valuable off season acquisition so Kiki can play 2B and Arroyo goes to the bench. Marte fills the need for a lead-off hitter preceding Devers, JD, Bogey, Dalbec Verdugo, Renfroe Vazquez and Hernandez. That would be a talent jump that makes sense this off season. Personally, I’d rather see Devers at 1B, JD traded, Jose Ramirez at 3B but the addition of Marte would be a nice compromise. That way, If Verdugo continues to plateau Duran Bloom can trade him to some obscure outpost like Benny and Chavis and Duran would add further speed to the line-up.
I never predicted they will make the playoffs, I said they will be competitive in the division without making major moves. Competitive being that they will play with the other 3 good teams in their division. Lots to shake out in the offseason before making any real predictions. I bet your position by position breakdown last year was even more down on them.
You don’t really need to a position-by-position thing. Newspapers have been doing this forever, and it never made any sense. You could win 5 positions by thin margins and lose 4 positions by huge margins. You’d win by position 5-4, but lose overall.
If you want to know what their record will be, start with the hitters OPS, and the pitchers OPSa, then use the Py W/L theorem. That will get you pretty close to their projected record..
ffrhb14Sox – Completely agree that it’s too early. Last year’s prediction was much worse like you suggested but it was based on the history of each player so it was based on previous results.
That’s why the games must be played. Nobody in their right mind takes Miami Dolphins over Baltimore Ravens this past Thursday Night but it happened. Likewise, Boston won many, many games they were expected to lose based on the skill sets of SPs involved and the starting hitters involved. That’s sports and I’m glad it’s that way.
When i predict I base it on historical trends so I can’t inflate Boston to be anything more than the 4th best team in 2022 based on their roster in November 2021. Believe me, nothing would make me happier than to see them win the position comparison but the evaluation has to be based on historical facts not my love for one team. I was furious when Mookie and Price departed because it severely impacted the position by position comparisons. Sale and E-Rod and Price not being present in 2020 severely impacted the position by position comparisons. A true result then occurred and Boston got the 4th pick in the 2021 draft.
That said, the Yankees find ways year in and year out to win the comparisons but not perform to their historical norms. Injuries and off years change the outcome of the predictions. That’s why ANYONE claiming they knew Boston would make the playoffs is not basing that prediction on facts just support for the team they follow/love. To suggest there was a factual basis of that prediction is simply lying.
I take NO ISSUE with any Red Sox fan predicting a World Series ring in 2022. That’s what being a fan is all about. I do take issue with anyone who claims that prediction is based in statistical evidence.
Historical trends are a good start but real analysis comes when you can forecast what will happen in the future. As I’ve already shared, I had sound reasons to predict what I did and was right. In some years, I am wrong. That happens when you take historical data to another level.
I totally agree. A) how did Cora stunt Dalbecs growth when he wasn’t even the manger in 2020? What a tool. Also, we had a 3 week stretch with Covoid that almost derailed us and if that hadnt happened, who knows. Cora navigated a ship through all sorts of unforeseen circumstances and did so magnificently. Anyone, ANYONE, that knows baseball has said so. Doesn’t matter who you root for. Go watch basketball and tell your baseless stupid comments to people that won’t know any better. AKA, people like yourself.
Why do you post here? Truly being honest and wondering. You seem to know so much about the SOX. Are you a closer Sox fan and want to hide it from your family? Makes sense. But come out. You’ll feel better.
Well the sox have already upgraded over Santana and marwin with locastro. I know he is an athleticism dependent guy coming off of a torn ACL, but he can put the ball in play and play solid defense around the field.
123redsox – I agree that Locastro is better than Santana and Gonzales but remember they traded Benny to get Cordero so is Locastro a starter like Benny was or has the sequence of events been Benny then huge drop to Cordero then nice step up to Locastro but still below the Benny level?
I am pleased that Locastro is on the roster instead or Cordero, Santana or Gonzalez. I considered the three all long shots that wouldn’t pay off and they didn’t. Locastro is less of a long shot and like all Bloom’s moves everyone needs to hope Locastro pays off as a bit less of a long shot than so many of Bloom’s acquisitions..
When you pay a guy and he is a vital part of a championship, he is no longer an “overpay”. When you pay a guy 20 mill and he wins a cy young he isn’t an “overpay”. Rick Porcello was NOT an “overpay”… no significant injuries in 2021? They didn’t have Sale for half the season, when he came back he still wasn’t right. Erod was getting over a heart issue first half of the season. Arroyo, their starting second baseman was on the IL 60% of the season and they had a COVID outbreak that literally led to Jack Lopez debut…. there is every reason to believe what Renfroe did last year will be replicated. In San Diego his issue at the plate was his K rate. He cut it in half in Tampa but had a BABIP of about .170. The MLB average of BABIP is about .280. He was closer to .270 on BABIP this season. Dalbec is a bridge guy to 2018 first round pick Tristan Casas who should be up at some point this season. And yes! The sox lineup can compete with the matchup driven Rays who the sox already showed they know how to exploit and the K happy Yankees. And you give the yanks the upper hand in getting Severino back for the whole season in 2022 but ignore Sale finally being healthy for maybe his first time in Boston.
123redsox – Did you even read the comments? Porcello was an overpay in every year but his CY year. Sounds like you agree. Sale and E-Rod were givens prior to the season not injuries that happened in season. You really need to comprehend when you read. Arroyo being hurt was as significant as the water boy or bat boy being hurt. Renfroe had a career year. I agree.
Again, read and comprehend. I was talking about the competition improving and Glasnow is back in TB, Severino is back in NY. NY has money and a willingness to spend it unlike Boston so yes NYY will be much better in 2022. They were already more talented on the field but they too suffer like the Red Sox by having a crap manager and crap GM.
Nothing carries over from the magical 2021 season to 2022. Boston still has the fourth best talent level and that means they are most likely to finish fourth. It’s just that simple.
If you want to believe the fourth best team is going to finish first I am ok with that. Why aren’t you open minded enough to acknowledge people think differently than you?
Guessing means making an assumption without any data to support the decision. Whitlock has a one year history as a very successful MLB reliever after looking very good as a minor league starter who was projected to remain in the rotation. He might not be a proven MLB starter but he was a starter until this year and his scouting report indicates he can be a successful starter based on his stuff and his history.
The fact that he was a very good looking starter in the minors and then jumped a couple of levels to be very good in a major league relief role doesn’t suddenly make him a reliever who is being toyed with if you try to start him. The bullpen has always been a very viable way to transition minor league starters to the major leagues.
It would be a mistake to leave him in the pen without even trying to move him into the rotation. His success in the pen is exactly what anyone should expect from a decent starter and starters are far too valuable to waste in the pen. Especially if your option is free agency.
I’d guess the player would also appreciate being given a chance since he was a minor league starter who aced the test last year. A multi level jump and at a different position (sort of) is really impressive and hardly seems like it supports the idea that he’s capped out.
I’m not sure he qualifies as a very good minor league starter. A 2.74 K/W in A+ and a 2.44 K/W at AA. I’ve seen a lot of minor leaguers go from good minor league pitchers to #4/5 types in the pros, and just as many turn into good 7/8/9th inning RPs.
emac22 – My guessing comment relates to the fact that there is 1 data point to predict from! Clearly you understand math and trending better than me because you’ve figured out how to build a line from a single point.
Extrapolating minor league numbers when he never pitched above AA is also a trending technique that lacks foundation. MLB hitters are better than AA, A and ROK hitters.
All the data in the minors is clearly positive BUT pitchers tend to fly under the radar until they establish themselves in the majors so now every team is building a book on how to approach Whitlock. Once one team finds a way to beat him other teams will jump on it and do the same. Then, it’s up to Whitlock and the coaching staff to make adjustments for him to continue to fair well.
That entire learning process has yet to be experienced by Whitlock. Houck and Pivetta experienced more of it as starters last year. Relievers who show up in the majors aren’t as quickly analyzed as starters. My whole point is Whitlock is a complete unknown as a starter with respect to 2022. Will the first adjustments made by hitters destroy his confidence and send him back to the minors? No way to know. Consequently, what he does in 2022 is a guess without data points to support the conclusion.
Let’s hope the Sox don’t make Whitlock into another Daniel Bard in which they had an effective reliever who they ruin when they try to stretch him out as a starter. If it isn’t broke don’t fix it.
In 2007 the Sox brought Jonathan Papelbon to spring training with the expectation of being a starter. Apparently the move caused Papelbon many sleepless nights that March and after an injury to projected Closer Mike Timlin Papelbon asked Terry Francona if he could go back to Closing and the rest is history. While i love Whitlock in the bullpen and believe he could be a great Closer there is no harm in stretching him out as a starter in spring training as if it doesn’t work out he can always go back to the ‘pen
FPG – I was reading a comment of yours from several days ago on a different topic and it prompted a question I thought you might be able to answer.
Does any website provide a breakdown of how many runners are left on base by a starting pitcher and the base they are left on along with what percentage of them end up scoring?
When we did all those discussions about E-Rod and argued about how good/mediocre he was the one thing I think about is the number of times Sale leaves a game with a runner on any base and the number of times that runner scores, even from first base!! That lack of NOT preventing runners on base from scoring has historically been a problem with the Red Sox bullpen. I would curious to see how many times Sale, Eovaldi and E-Rod left a start with runners on 1st, 2nd or 3rd and then I’d like to know how many scored (breaking it out by where they were when the starter left the game). It might be my bias towards Sale but it sure seems like he has the lowest level of relief support of the three. It feels like a high percentage of the runners score when he comes out of a game and the lowest percentage of the time when E-Rod comes out of a game.
When people talk about how ERA isn’t the whole truth there are some anomalies that happen that can impact the ERA stat. If I’m right in remembering the frequency of scoring by pitcher that would suggest with comparable relief support Sale’s ERA would be lower and E-Rod’s would be higher. Whether that’s a luck factor or a number that evens out over time, clearly there is a difference in relief help that impacts a starter ERA.
Any idea where to find numbers like I’m talking about?
Any idea where to find numbers like I’m talking about?
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Fangraphs will supply a lot (not all) of those numbers. Go to Fangraphs, click on Leaders at the top, and then Pitching. The default page shows the LOB%. You can start with the league stats for the AL, since the NL doesn’t have the DH.
The league average LOB% is 71.9%. Drilling down by team will show the RS to be 71.9%, which is exactly league average. And that would make sense, since the RS BP is slightly better than average in ERA, and slightly worse in OPSa.
That’s all pretty normal. After that, you can drill down into the RS pitchers. Going just by numbers, ERod and Houck were slightly unlucky, and Sale and Pivetta were a bit lucky. There are others with higher variances, but not really key guys.
Why aren’t the Red Sox even mentioning Iglesias in the 2B mix. He did a great job last year and worked extremely well with Bogaerts in the middle of the IF.