The Red Sox have issued a qualifying offer to left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). Rodriguez has 10 days to decide whether or not to accept the one-year, $18.4MM contract. If he rejects the QO and signs elsewhere, the Red Sox will get draft pick compensation in return, and E-Rod’s new team will have to surrender at least one pick.
Rodriguez’s 4.74 ERA wouldn’t make him an obvious qualifying offer candidate at first glance, yet it isn’t surprising that Boston would issue the QO once you look at the underlying statistics. Rodriguez posted above-average strikeout, walk, and hard-hit ball rates, and his .289 xwOBA fell far under his .330 wOBA. The southpaw’s .363 BABIP was also pretty telling, as Rodriguez didn’t receive much luck on batted balls or help from Boston’s defense. Other ERA estimators (3.32 FIP/3.43/xFIP/3.64 SIERA) painted a much more appealing picture of Rodriguez’s 2021 performance.
Most importantly, Rodriguez was healthy and capable of tossing 157 2/3 innings in 2021 — a welcome sight considering that he missed all of 2020 recovering from myocarditis, caused by a case of COVID-19. Apart from a brief bout of elbow inflammation that caused him to miss the first week of the season, E-Rod looked much like his normal self in 2021.
With of all these factors in mind plus the fact that Rodriguez doesn’t turn 29 until April, there is little doubt he’ll receive plenty of attention in free agency this winter. There may be a slim chance Rodriguez accepts the qualifying offer, but he should still be able to land a healthy multi-year deal, given all of the advanced metrics that teams will pay heed to moreso than the 4.74 ERA.
The QO probably shouldn’t have too much of an adverse impact on his market, and the Sox have now put themselves in line to capitalize via the compensation route if Rodriguez does sign with another team. That said, the Red Sox have also expressed interest in re-signing the left-hander, and the two sides have discussed contract extensions as recently as this past Spring Training.
Well that’s one FA off the board
Schiste!!!!
I was hoping he wasn’t going to be offered one. Still though the Orioles should try and bring E Rod home!!!!
I bet they re-sign him
Good job Bloom!
E-Rod sucks. Does anyone look at stats any more? 6 years and 850 IP and the guy has a pathetic ERA of 4.16 and an even more pathetic WHIP of 1.313!!! Stats don’t lie!!!
I would quote other stats like ERA+ but the juice in the baseball has made that value virtually worthless because E-Rod had an ERA of 4.74 in 2021 and his ERA+ was 100, league average! Does anyone see a problem with these numbers?
Offering an inconsistent mediocre SP a QO is pure stupidity by Bloom unless he’s lined up payback from Friedman by having Friedman offer E-Rod more than the QO so Boston can get a draft pick!! Usually, Bloom is on the short end of those deals so unless some idiot contracts E-Rod Boston is saddled with a $10M over-pay for a #5 SP.
There is nobody in their right mind that would pay that much for a journeyman SP with a horrible ERA and WHIP. It’s insane and yet consistent with the regime running the Red Sox. Maybe another 65 win season will clean out the morons running the front office and the cheater in the dugout.
4@17.5 with a vesting option at 20. Put in some incentives like cy young down ballot votes so he can earn up to 5@20.
Are nuts or just too much pleasure meds…he is consistently a mediocre pitcher with occasional good runs.. 4 or 5 million $ tops …
The Sox, who just made an unlikely run to the ALCS on Bloom’s under appreciated off season and mid season moves, just offered him 1 yr $18m. And you’re coming in at 4 or 5m per year while accusing someone else of abusing pleasure meds . . . . that’s irony.
dombrowski – Your comments embarrass the great name!!!
E-ROD SUCKS. NUMBERS!!! YOU MUST UNDERSTAND HIS NUMBERS!!!
Yesgeo is spot on. A journeyman #5 SP who hasn’t ever had a good season from a numbers standpoint but did get great run support in 2019 (3 years prior to 2022) so he got acknowledged by the moron writers who don’t listen to Brian Kenny about the worthlessness of Wins in baseball deserves exactly what Yesgeo suggested!!.
A mediocre pitch costs roughly 10m these days so a mediocre to good would likely be 12-15m. Erod has been better than mediocre.
B-Strong – His numbers for 2021 say mediocre to the max. Exactly 100 or league average in ERA at 4.74!!! Why not try for a better pitcher that will cost less than E-Rod’s significantly nflated numbers?
If Bloom was really the guy he pretended to be when he signed with Boston he would know many young pitchers who should break out or are flying under the radar right now. He thought that about Perez and was wrong. He thought that about Richards and was wrong. He seems to have a higher hit rate on relievers. The Red Sox have Sale, Eovaldi, Houck and Pivetta and need a SP to slot behind Eovaldi that is left handed. If we could only count E-Rods 16 good starts he might fit the bill but we have to count his 16 bad starts as well so he has earned a spot behind Pivetta at best.
With the QO already happening Boston has to pray for some idiot GM to sign him and they have to hope he thinks he can get more so he doesn’t take the huge over-pay otherwise they are saddled with a SP that is at least $10M too expensive for his talents.
Your comment that E-Rod has been better than mediocre is true for about half his games and E-Rod has been much worse than mediocre is true for the other half. There in lies the problem with E-Rod besides walking too many guys.
ERod has back-to-back seasons checking in at just under 4 WAR.
In 2021, he was 24th, tied with resurgent Adam Wainwright, and the guy who just shut down the Astros lineup in the decisive game of the Word Series.
In 2019, he was 27th, despite beginning the year with an ERA over 6 through April (this was the infamous shortened spring training year after the 2018 World Series run).
Most guys are rusty after missing a year, TJ or otherwise, and none of the difference showed in his BB, K or HR rates. He’s one of the youngest starting pitchers available and he’s playoff tested, for what it’s worth.
rhswanzey – Never heard a more pathetic rationalization for wasting money!!!
Use real numbers not fabricated bull crap. WAR is not a measuring stick for the knowledgeable baseball fan. It’s a media stat for media morons who haven’t read Baseball for Dummies. Fabricated numbers can’t compare to facts. Facts like bad ERAs and bad WHIPs and inconsistent success those are the things that project when doing contracts. You can’t take a short performance burst and extrapolate it as if it represents the talent of a pitcher.
SIX LONG YEARS of inconsistent pitching isn’t going to suddenly change just like Devers catching ONE ball in a row doesn’t make him an improving third baseman!!! E-ROD SUCKS from a pure statistical viewpoint for the money being offered. Half that would be too much in my opinion based on his numbers..
If you like E=Rod great but don’t support Bloom burdening the Red Sox payroll with a huge wasted contract. Try to make 2022 competitive so you should support good moves by Bloom that get real talent not bad retreads like E-Rod!!
Bloom wasted $8.3M on a pitcher with an ERA of 4.74 and a WHIP of 1.389. That was a travesty and he should have been fired for it.
OK, lets put this into perspective for all you E-Rod supporters. In 2021 only 18 Starting Pitchers in BASEBALL made more than the 2022 QO!!!
1 Jacob deGrom NYM SP 33 $36,000,000
2 Gerrit Cole NYY SP 30 $36,000,000
3 Zack Greinke HOU SP 37 $35,000,000
4 Stephen Strasburg WSH SP 32 $35,000,000
5 Max Scherzer LAD SP 36 $34,603,480
6 Justin Verlander HOU SP 38 $33,000,000
7 David Price LAD SP 35 $32,000,000
8 Trevor Bauer LAD SP 30 $31,333,333
9 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP 33 $31,000,000
10 Chris Sale BOS SP 32 $30,000,000
11 Patrick Corbin WSH SP 31 $24,416,666
12 Zack Wheeler PHI SP 31 $22,500,000
13 Yu Darvish SD SP 34 $22,000,000
14 Johnny Cueto SF SP 35 $21,000,000
15 Hyun-Jin Ryu TOR SP 34 $20,000,000
16 Madison Bumgarner ARI SP 31 $19,000,000
17 Kevin Gausman SF SP 30 $18,900,000
18 Marcus Stroman NYM SP 30 $18,900,000
EROD doesn’t belong in this group!!
The numbers? Yes people get paid for their numbers USUALLY!! Bloom hasn’t figured that out yet but but most of these guys make their big salaries due to their big numbers. CY awards bring big salaries and E-Rod hasn’t even been close to a CY award.
Career Numbers
1 Jacob deGrom – ERA 2.50 WHIP 1.011 after 8 years 3 CY 1 ROY
2 Gerrit Cole – ERA 3.20 WHIP 1.059 after 9 years 2nd in CY
3 Zack Greinke – ERA 3.41 WHIP 1.159 after 18 years Top 5 CY 3 times 1 win
4 Stephen Strasburg – ERA 3.21 WHIP 1.093 12 years 3rd in CY
5 Max Scherzer – ERA 3.16 WHIP 1.084 14 years 3 CY Top 5 CY 7 yrs
6 Justin Verlander – ERA 3.33 WHIP 1.134 16 years 2 CY Top 5 CY 8 yrs
7 David Price – ERA 3.33 WHIP 1.162 13 years CY and 2nd twice CY
8 Trevor Bauer – ERA 3.79 WHIP 1.243 after 10 years CY in 2020
9 Clayton Kershaw – ERA 2.49 WHIP 1.004 14 years 3 CY Top 5 CY 7 yrs
10 Chris Sale – ERA 3.03 WHIP 1.042 11 years Top 5 CY six straight years
11 Patrick Corbin – ERA 4.09 WHIP 1.306 9 years Top 5 CY once
12 Zack Wheeler – ERA 3.51 WHIP 1.227 7 years
13 Yu Darvish SD – ERA 3.56 WHIP 1.151 9 years Top 5 CY twice
14 Johnny Cueto – ERA 3.45 WHIP 1.206 14 years Top 5 CY twice
15 Hyun-Jin Ryu – ERA 3.20 WHIP 1.174 8 years Top 5 CY twice
16 Madison Bumgarner – ERA 3.31 WHIP 1.122 13 yrs Top 5 CY twice MVP
17 Kevin Gausman – ERA 4.02 WHIP 1.283 9 years
18 Marcus Stroman – ERA 3.63 WHIP 1.266 7 years
19? E-Rod BOS – ERA 4.16 WHIP 1.313 6 years
The above data proves E-Rod has NOT performed to a level in his first 6 years to command a QO in 2022. Bloom has access to this data which further proves his incompetence. A new GM must happen in 2022!!
Look hard at the numbers above because you can see the glaring mistakes and E-Rod appears to be the next glaring mistake on the list.
E-Rod is consistently around 3.80 and 1.30 for ERA and WHIP. Those are SP 5 numbers. The QO pays him as if he’s a SP 2. It’s higher than Eovaldi who is considered over-paid by many but put up much better numbers than E-Rod’s because 2021 was a year when Eovaldi was healthy. E-Rod has never had a year like Eovaldi’s 2021 in his career but should make more than him? The bias in the Boston front office is overwhelming.
KD – On this one I’ll need to agree to disagree with you.
First, it’s a one year deal that, if accepted, let’s them stretch out Houck and Sale, have a little insurance, etc. On a one year deal you’d overpay anyways, which is OK, IF the team is going to go out and spend big as has been hinted at.
Lately Bloom has been signing SP like perez and Richards. Erod is an upgrade from that kind of work, even as an overpay.
Second, it’s a gamble. Are you OK with an overpay on one year if he takes it (and he should), up against compensation if he leaves (and it’s a given he’d get over $50m if he does.)
As a side note, notice this quote?
“he southpaw’s .363 BABIP was also pretty telling, as Rodriguez didn’t receive much luck on batted balls or help from Boston’s defense.”
Worth pointing out that all of the OF Bloom traded or let walk were GG winners in 2021.
You got too much time on your hands bro.
GASoxFan – I can’t buy into the idea that overpaying for a bad SP is ok because there is nothing else out there. Two years ago who would have predicted that Houck and Pivetta would be were they are today? There is ALWAYS a guy out there that is better than a proven mediocre over-paid SP!!
Lets first identify some better Left Handed SP that are on the market this off season:
1 – Carlos Rodon (QO)
2 – Tyler Anderson
3 – Brett Anderson
4 – Matt Moore
5 – Tom Milone
6 – Kwang-hyun Kim (I’d rather have him than E-Rod straight up!)
All but Rodon would be less money and give similar results to E-Rod.
Kim has had 35 starts in the US and has a 2.97 ERA and 1.215 WHIP.
He slots in behind Eovaldi nicely. His numbers are far better than E-Rod and his cost will be far less than the QO!! He made $4M last year.
This is why I think it’s a bad move to take a known mediocre pitcher and pay him more money than Eovaldi who is a far superior pitcher making what he should be making.
E-Rod has no redeeming qualities. He’s inconsistent for six years. He fools people because his hot streaks are remembered but his long cold streaks seem to be forgotten too easily. His control is atrocious for a guy being offered $18M and his ERA is mediocre at best and unfortunately very consistently mediocre. You can’t expect to make chicken salad out of chicken crap.
He’s not going to make the big jump to where people think he should be any more than Devers is going to win a gold glove some day. (an opinion written in response to my comments on many occasions!!)
I am a bit surprised at your stance. Obviously, you like the guy but just keep thinking about John Smoltz’s commentary during the playoffs when E-Rod was doing decent. He said, it’s hard to figure how a guy with such good stuff can continue to find ways to fail. Until he can put it all together, he’s not viable as a top of the rotation starter. John is right and he’s had 6 years to figure it out, much like Devers at fielding.
John Smoltz knows baseball and my opinion is the same as his. All I can do is look at the consistently mediocre stats for 6 years so to convince me of your opinion please describe the event that is going to happen to reverse his trend and suddenly see him improve significantly!
The QO makes him the 4th highest paid player on the team in 2022. Is he the fourth best player? Not even close.
Here are the latest numbers for the 2022 payroll (CAP not cashflow).
Chris Sale 25,600,000
Xander Bogaerts 20,000,000
J.D. Martinez 22,000,000
Eduardo Rodriguez 18,400,000 (QO price tag if he accepts)
Nathan Eovaldi 17,000,000
David Price 16,000,000 (wasted money helping LAD not Boston)
Rafael Devers 10,750,000
Matt Barnes 9,375,000
Hunter Renfroe 7,500,000
Enrique Hernandez 7,000,000
Christian Vazquez 7,000,000
Nick Pivetta3,000,000
Alex Verdugo 3,000,000
Kevin Plawecki 2,000,000
Ryan Brasier1,750,000
Hirokazu Sawamura 1,500,000
Christian Arroyo 1,000,000
Tim Locastro 750,000
That’s $163.625M so far. Add another $9.775 for 17 controllable players making roughly $0.575M and $18.25M for benefits and minor league contracts and the current total is $191.65M. The CAP is $210M.
For me, straddling the fence with E-Rod by making him expensive is the exact opposite of what makes sense. Either go cheaper and save money for other positions or go bigger and get an impact SP and use the money left under the cap. That way, if the team starts poorly, the Red Sox can be sellers. Unfortunately this strategy misses the great FA class of 2022.
Not signing E-Rod and trading JD makes the most sense so they can compete for Story to play 3B and get Devers to DH. Inexpensive SPs who can put up 4.74 ERAs and 1.389 WHIPs should not be hard to find!!
dombrowski – Yes I do. I am retired. Don’t suggest that I stop enjoying my life by not commenting!! It’s a fun way to pass the time since I can’t play any more, I can’t coach any more and I can’t scout any more.
UPDATE – Carlos Rodon did NOT receive a QO and should have been the targeted SP for Boston not E-Rod. They are the same age! Both will be 29 in 2022.
Rodon’s career numbers – 7 years 3.79 ERA 1.295 WHIP ERA+ 110
E-Rods career numbers – 8 years 4.16 ERA 1.313 WHIP ERA+ 110
Rodon 2021 – ERA 2.37 WHIP 0.957 ERA+ 183
E-Rod 2021 – ERA 4.74 WHIP 1.389 ERA+ 100
Both were coming off injuries going into 2021.
Rodon bounced back after two years of injuries and E-Rod didn’t bounce back after being out 2 years.
Both would be risks for injury especially with COVID still present in the world and E-Rod having heart issues related to getting it.
Further proof that Bloom screwed the pooch again when he QO’d E-Rod.
YES and KD, You were saying?
Ignore KD he is a troll.
Sox’ trade assets/pending FA at trade deadline now include; Hernandez,JDM, ERod, Eovaldi, Bogey. Plus just about anyone else Bloom seems fit.
bogaerts will stay in Boston for life
He’s better off resigning. Won’t get more money than that for one year.
I agree, no one is going to give him 18 million a year, if he’s going to settle for less it might as well be with the Red Sox where he’s familiar, I would offer a nice contract for 2022 as a show me contract with 2023 and beyond in mind
If he wanted to do a longer-term deal, three years 36 million has a nice ring to it
Already heard that Detroit was interested somewhere in 3/45 range I would be very happy with that if Boston signed him to that contract.
I think 3/39 is light.
As a Tigers fan I’d be interested in where you heard this. 3/45 sounds about right to me. Boyd and Turnbull out with TJ.
4/52 is a floor for E-Rod
A buddy of mine who has ties to the Detroit front office told me. He’s almost always always right about Detroit and I figured that would be about right if there was no QO attached. He also said they probably won’t sign him if the Red Sox attached a QO. I am hoping that is the case.
Sent me the text at 4:30 on Thursday about the Tigers interest.
I really don’t see why the draft pick would make them un-interested.
That draft pick has quite a bit of value and it would have to factored into signing a free agent especially one who is not a top tier free agent. I think he stays with Boston he either accepts the QO or he signs an extension.
I like that a lot of our players are playing for new contracts.
Be smart for him to accept the qo. Dont see many teams willing to give ip a pick for him. Good pitcher. But not great
I disagree. Dude pitched like a straight up ace in the 2nd half of 2019, and has the stuff to back it up. He improved all of his FIP rates in 2021 despite not pitching for a whole calendar year. There’s a lot of reason to believe his command was just slightly off this year, resulting in the giant BABIP. Some folks are overreacting to the top line ERA number. Given his age and what’s under the hood, he’s absolutely someone teams will offer multiple years to, despite the draft pick cost.
Are u smoking good meds ? He is constantly a mediocre pitcher… each game has a few great inning then collapse.. maybe better reliever.. has a great run .. and then he is batting practice..
Perhaps someday he gets it together…but unlikely as he showed his high schoolish attitude against Tampa with his childish watch antics.. people like that never grow up until maybe 40s …
@yesgeo, When I read your comment I imagined that one picture of a monkey sitting at a typewriter. Foolish analysis of Rodriguez’s tenure in Boston
The watch was against Houston not Tampa. All that you said was stupid
FletcherFan69 – The numbers don’t lie. You are the fool for your comment. The data supports what yesgeo said. Try looking up his numbers. The numbers don’t lie. E-Rod sucks at that price. He’s a SP 5 based on his numbers. Even his best year was nothing more than a mediocre year. Do you understand that 3.80 ERA (his best) is mediocre? Next time you get the time to spout off crap like you did here go read the latest rankings of SP ERAs in baseball then tell us all how great E-Rod is. Please don’t let the facts get in the way when spouting insults to other writers on the website.
Nice job yesgeo!!
FletcherFan69
@yesgeo, When I read your comment I imagined that one picture of a monkey sitting at a typewriter.
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I think the recent article by MLB-R, predicting $70M/5 for ERod, snapped a lot of people in here. It’s one thing to continue with their rambling, when you can’t be proven wrong (yet). But once a major publication like MLB-R laughs at their predictions, it probably kills their self-esteem.
What a complete lack of baseball knowledge these people have.
ERod is A.L.East tested and a Yankee killer.
Probably hoping someone signs him so they get something.
Anybody know what’s up with the last-minute nature of some of these QO announcements? I mean, the decision to QO them didn’t just happen in the final hour before the deadline did it..? So, why delay the announcment until the final minutes? Is there some reason to be cagey about it?
Probably needs to go through some offical approval before it’s announced as offical and final.
I’m this case they were probably trying to work out a longer term deal and when they couldn’t they attached the QO.
“in”
Yeah…I could see that being the case with some of these guys. Thanks Bruin.
Every lawyer will tell you never commit until the last minute. You don’t know what might turn up ten minutes before the deadline. There’s no reason to show your hand earlier, so just hold your cards in case something surprising happens.
Anyone know what happens to rule 4 draft budget if a team signs a guy with qualifying offer attached? In other words, let’s say Sox sign Verlander and have to give up 2nd round pick. Does that mean they lose the budget money attached to that 2nd round pick or do they get to keep and spend elsewhere in draft? I know they lose some international draft budget but I’m curious about Rule 4 draft money. Thanks!
I’m pretty sure the amount of money that you have to spend on the draft is determined by your actual picks so if Boston lost its 2nd round pick they would also lose the money allotted for said pick.
Id be shocked beyond belief if he turns this down after last year. Hes proven he can be a good pitcher in the past so taking this and betting on himself to right the ship next year seems like a no brainer.
Its not whether he can get more per year, its whether he can get more in the total package. Not many starters provided innings. He will be in demand.
Even if E-Rod takes it an extension could be worked out.
Check the Red Sox record when ERod starts. He must be doing something right. I would resign him for 4 years at $56 mil easily.
ray win – So your theory is that a guy who has gotten way more run support than others like Sale and Eovaldi is worth wasting $56M for 4 years because your expectation is that his run support is somehow tied to his pitching?
What about the old saying “things will even out in the long run”? If that happens E-Rod might not win more than 20 games over the four years. Is it smart to pay big bucks for luck? Or should a player’s compensation be based more on actual performance of the player not his team mates? You need to spend some time on the MLB channel listening to Brian Kenny explain how irrelevant wins are for Starting Pitchers. After all, that’s the ONLY redeeming factor in E-Rods stats. So his best stat is considered irrelevant by many people in baseball!!
One last suggestion. Look on Baseball Reference at his stats. Notice his winning didn’t happen until Boston got JD Martinez. He didn’t win after Papi left until JD showed up. So is it E-Rod that makes a difference or JD? E-Rod will be making $1M less than JD in 2022 and pitching every 5th day.
Did you know E-Rod gave up 3 or more runs in 16 of his starts in 2021? He won 7 of those bad starts because the offense was very good. In 2019, he gave up 3 or more runs in 15 of his starts and he got the win in 9 of them thanks to the great offense when he pitched. By comparison, Eovaldi only had 11 games with 3 or more runs given up in 2021 and the team won 4 of those games. Same team but one pitcher had better LUCK than the other. Paying for luck makes no sense. Teams should pay for skills.
Eovaldi ERA 3.75 WHIP 1.190 E-Rod ERA 4.74 WHIP 1.389.
Who deserves more money?
I agree with that, I had him at four years 60 million, what’s that, 15 million a year? That’s pretty good money for an inconsistent pitcher with upside
It’s going to take at least 4/60 to sign E-Rod, if not a bit more (4/64). There are plenty of pitching-needy teams who would pay E-Rod $15M – $16M per year to join their team. It will be interesting to see if Boston is one of those teams.
Nobody was gonna sign this dude for more than that aav.