Have you all heard about Trevor Pouffe’s prediction? Someone named Scully was asking about if anyone ever predicted the Braves to win it “even after they made the playoffs.” Former Twin, A’s, Ray and Philly Trevor Plouffe did it and you wouldn’t believe how accurate he was. He talked about it and tweeted in back in March before the season started. Not only did he pick the Braves to win the World Series before the season started. He picked them to beat the Astros in the World Series before the season even started. He also picked it to happen in 6 games. He made the prediction on March 31st and tweeted it out. You should all look up Trevor Plouffe prediction on Google. I have never heard of such an accurate prediction before a season even started. He picked the 2 teams that would make the WS. The team that would win the WS and the number of games they would win it in all very accurately over 7 months ago. Check him out. Probably the greatest baseball prediction of all time and totally verifiable.
You saw it too, @tstats? It’s become an internet phenomenon for people who keep up with current baseball events on the internet. Look it up. It’s crazy. If Plouffe had bet his life savings on Braves over Astros in 6 back when he made that prediction he would easily be a multibillionaire right now. Back then the White Sox, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, Mets and Phillies were all ranked ahead of the Astros and Braves.
It was a very cool prediction, but I’m pretty sure the betting payouts that people have posted online are grossly overstated.
There are only 1800 possible World Series outcomes. 15 teams in each league means the number of possible matchups is 15×15 = 225. Then those 225 matchups can go 8 ways each. AL in 4, 5, 6, or 7 or NL in 4, 5, 6, or 7. 225×8 = 1800.
Add in the fact that the Astros have gone to the ALCS the 4 prior seasons and the Braves had a 3-1 NLCS lead last year, and it wasn’t exactly the “most out of left field” prediction ever.
Places have said it he bet $100 he would have a $25,000,000 payout. I also saw one say it would have been $2,500,000.
Even using that last number would be 250,000 times his bet. I’m no gambler but that seems incredibly improbably to me that something with, at WORST, a 1 in 1800 chance would pay out that kind of money, particularly something that should have been in the top 100 guesses or so going off of last years results.
I watched Andujar in 2018. The 23 year-old was a doubles machine. Best hitter and run producer on the team.
The Yankees absolutely ruined him.
I remain a fan of his and have been waiting for them to let him go for years. I’m hoping he can get on a team that works well with straightening out hitters; he needs help on D as well. If the DH comes to the NL then I can see the Giants and Dodgers as great landing spots, maybe the Brewers and Pirates as well. Rays, A’s and Guardians would be good possibilities in the AL.
Finished 2nd in MLB in runs. & – yes – Miggy is a live bat. He certainly contributed to our offense that season. However, he batted out of the lower half of the lineup. & rightly so (like I said, that was a really good lineup). He was a highly productive bat in his role. But far from our “best hitter”.
& how exactly did the Yankees “absolutely ruin him”? By allowing him to get hurt? Or be outplayed upon his return? He’s battled injuries since 2018 & when given a chance hasn’t seized the opportunity (like Urshela did.)
On his defense:
After you have watched enough baseball, you will realize that almost all players are incomplete or flawed in some way. That is why players like Mike Trout are so highly regarded, Sam. Miggy is just another flawed player. The kid – by all accounts – works really hard. He just kinda sucks defensively & most likely always will.
His future is at DH. Won’t be with us, though. I wish him the best. He was a fun player…at least with the bat.
Edit:According to BTV he has a trade value of 0.0. *Maybe* Cash can get a reliever for him + some of our roster jetsam. But I think that’s the absolute best Yankee fans can hope for & even that doesn’t strike me as all that realistic.
1. When injuries happened Andujar often batted 4th. He was the best clutch hitter on the team that year. The fans loved him.
2. They brought in Urshela to take is position BEFORE he was hurt. Quality organizations in all professional sports have a rule about a player not losing his position if he’s hurt. The Yankees hitting staff has had 3 years to get the man back to his hitting style. In the meantime they’ve also had him learn to play LF and 1B at the major league level. They jacked him around like they jacked Gleyber around by bringing in a left-handed bat durng the season to play 2B (Odor is a terrible 2B) and moving Gleyber to SS – thereby weakening their defense a 2 positions, and hurting Gleyber’s offensive production, as well as upending his mental approach – if they were going to move him they should have let him know during the offseason so he could prepare.
–
Hank Aaron was once asked about hitting HR’s. Was it balancing from the trunk of the body to generate the power? Was it the quickness and power in the wrists? (Hank had the quickest wrists on a batter I’ve ever seen.) Aaron responded that hitting HR’s was all about rhythm. Anyone in any physical artistic endeavor – from actors to musicians to athletes of any sort are trying to get into a rhythm. It’s why pitchers hold the ball and batters step out of the box every pitch – trying to break the other guys rhythm. Cashman thinks like the analytic people that grew up playing baseball on a computer. In MLB you don’t just take a guy and plug him into another position willy-nilly. Some guys can play multiple positions and still stay in rhythm, and that makes them valuable. But most can’t. It’s one thing to stretch a guys game by getting him to hit against the shift, make him a better baserunner etc. It’s another to stick him in positions he can’t play and mess around with his batting style. Quality organizations don’t jack around players that way.
Andujar needs to get out of there and work with an organization that will bring his confidence back and slowly re-work his hitting mechanics. And I have no doubt that he can be an adequate 3B or 1B if a team just leaves him there.
He hit clean up some. But – as you point out – that was necessitated by injury. It wasn’t anywhere close to his normal spot. & after Voit came over that was completely done.
Indeed, the Yanks primarily batted him out of the bottom third of the lineup more often than not the entire season.
Count me as a fan that loved him. His bat was a great counterpoint to that particular offense. But getting back to your original assertion, Andjuar was one of our top 5 (maybe 6) bats in ’18. Which is still excellent – especially in re the overall strength of that lineup – but falls well shy of “best hitter”.
You are COMPLETELY WRONG, Sam.
Urshela was a depth pickup who was pressed into service when Miggy got hurt. There is no other way to say it. Your premise & subsequent diatribe are flawed from the very beginning. This is what sucks about posting with you, serious. I have no idea how you come up with some of this stuff, man. But you are 100% INCORRECT.
It is easily verifiable. Hank Aaron quotes aside. How can I take the rest of your take seriously when your opening claim is completely backwards.
& I have all kinds of doubts he’ll ever be an adequate fielder. That is based on actually watching him play (ooof! not easy) & any & all defensive metrics modern or traditional. He is a terrible fielder. An all time terrible fielder. He has poor range & subpar reaction times which can now be quantified. Love the kid. Brutal defender.
It certainly wouldn’t be surprising if Arizona wanted to maximize a return for Marte and prioritized that over salary relief, but if they wanted to move Bumgarner and the whopping 60m still owed to him, Marte’s the only player that’s going to get that done without cash being involved.
1. About the ‘Guardians’ new merchandise generating more revenue in sales – last I knew the selling of team merchandise went into a central fund and was split equally with all 30 franchises.
Was that not true? If it was the situation when did it change?
2. The White Sox may be playing in a large market, but they’re not on equal ground with the Cubs in that area – haven’t been for over half a century. More money is on the North Side, the Cubs long have owned that town (not as bad as the A’s vs. the Giants, but definitely not on par with Yankees-Mets or Dodgers-Angels). Don’t have cable so I’m not sure if Cubs games are still going around the country on WGN. But I do know that relocated Cubs fans show up strong for road games in Arizona and California – the White Sox not so much. Point being that the Sox bring in a fraction of the revenue the Cubs bring in.
Spot on with the logo assessment. I don’t mind the Guardians name, especially knowing there’s a connection to the city, but the typeface used is unnecessarily like the Indians. Move on. It would have been nicer to have seen the Guardians typeface more of an art deco style more in line with the Guardian statues outside the stadium that’s a great look.
Now the G-logo with wings looks like early-2000’s Anaheim Angels that only lasted for 4 years.
It’s standard business practice that when one is in a smaller market, the best way to compete is to be creative, smart, and with the advent of computers – use technology.
Smaller market teams such as the Rays, Brewers, A’s, Guardians, (now) Pirates and Orioles put resources into making smart decisions on how to acquire players, develop and maintain them, deploy them, and manage games throughout the season.
In todays market $20m buys a team a seemingly quality veteran player. But if small market teams were forced to spend it, most of those players would elect to sign with the larger market teams where they may get national exposure and feel they have a better chance of winning. At that point does some authority figure come in and force some of players in that category to take the offers from the small market teams? How does one administer this?
More importantly, that $20m (or $30m or $40m) goes a long way in buying equipment, hiring people to use it, and pay travel expenses in order to maximize the production a team can get from their roster for the money they’re laying out.
What we’re seeing with the Mets situation is not the personality thing that the media and chatroom posters are making fun of. What we’re seeing is a paradigm shift in MLB regarding FO jobs. Many talented people are motivated not just by money, but by the challenge of using new tools and methods to accomplish results, as well as the desire to be with co-workers that are of equal minds. Maybe working for the Mets or Yankees pays more, and maybe they have a bigger budgets – but if your findings and recommendations are going to be trumped by decision makers that just throw money at the big names available, then it’s not an attractive position or a sustainable one. Any qualified person can do that.
Along the same lines – about a year ago a study was done of the top 10% of engineering graduates from the engineering departments of American colleges. They simply asked the graduates to be where they wanted to work. Something like 85-90% said they wanted to work for an Elon Musk company. Sure, maybe they’d make more money at an established car company like Ford; a company manufacturing satellites; or any number of traditional power companies. But those people were motivated by being a part of something that finds new ways of accomplishing results that are of higher quality for less money. They want to be a part of a change in the way business is done.
Even if you make teams to have a minimum 100 million team payroll, btw that is the 40 man roster not just 26. Even a teams like the A’a and Reys, the ownership groups would still profit around 100 million a season. The other problem is, teams like the Reys and Marlins, sign their star players to extensions. Then go low on the the first few seasons, then trade them to get rid of the contract,
Oh… First comment, huh? Tight. That’s tight. That’s so tight.
It’s not that tight.
You don’t know how tight it was at first. You got here 2nd. He might have loosened it up for you.
@Steve Nebraska what happened to deleting your account ?
Have you all heard about Trevor Pouffe’s prediction? Someone named Scully was asking about if anyone ever predicted the Braves to win it “even after they made the playoffs.” Former Twin, A’s, Ray and Philly Trevor Plouffe did it and you wouldn’t believe how accurate he was. He talked about it and tweeted in back in March before the season started. Not only did he pick the Braves to win the World Series before the season started. He picked them to beat the Astros in the World Series before the season even started. He also picked it to happen in 6 games. He made the prediction on March 31st and tweeted it out. You should all look up Trevor Plouffe prediction on Google. I have never heard of such an accurate prediction before a season even started. He picked the 2 teams that would make the WS. The team that would win the WS and the number of games they would win it in all very accurately over 7 months ago. Check him out. Probably the greatest baseball prediction of all time and totally verifiable.
Plouffe is a fricken legend that’s why
You saw it too, @tstats? It’s become an internet phenomenon for people who keep up with current baseball events on the internet. Look it up. It’s crazy. If Plouffe had bet his life savings on Braves over Astros in 6 back when he made that prediction he would easily be a multibillionaire right now. Back then the White Sox, Rays, Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers, Padres, Mets and Phillies were all ranked ahead of the Astros and Braves.
It was a very cool prediction, but I’m pretty sure the betting payouts that people have posted online are grossly overstated.
There are only 1800 possible World Series outcomes. 15 teams in each league means the number of possible matchups is 15×15 = 225. Then those 225 matchups can go 8 ways each. AL in 4, 5, 6, or 7 or NL in 4, 5, 6, or 7. 225×8 = 1800.
Add in the fact that the Astros have gone to the ALCS the 4 prior seasons and the Braves had a 3-1 NLCS lead last year, and it wasn’t exactly the “most out of left field” prediction ever.
Places have said it he bet $100 he would have a $25,000,000 payout. I also saw one say it would have been $2,500,000.
Even using that last number would be 250,000 times his bet. I’m no gambler but that seems incredibly improbably to me that something with, at WORST, a 1 in 1800 chance would pay out that kind of money, particularly something that should have been in the top 100 guesses or so going off of last years results.
*25,000
I’m a huge Jomboy media fan so I keep up with the one down to earth member of that team in Plouffe yes
I watched Andujar in 2018. The 23 year-old was a doubles machine. Best hitter and run producer on the team.
The Yankees absolutely ruined him.
I remain a fan of his and have been waiting for them to let him go for years. I’m hoping he can get on a team that works well with straightening out hitters; he needs help on D as well. If the DH comes to the NL then I can see the Giants and Dodgers as great landing spots, maybe the Brewers and Pirates as well. Rays, A’s and Guardians would be good possibilities in the AL.
The Guardians do not need a DH and Andujar is a hack defensively everywhere else. I don’t see the fit.
You mean the Indians?
Butch779988: He meant the CBT aka the Cleveland Baseball Team.
That ’18 Yankee offense was *stacked*.
Finished 2nd in MLB in runs. & – yes – Miggy is a live bat. He certainly contributed to our offense that season. However, he batted out of the lower half of the lineup. & rightly so (like I said, that was a really good lineup). He was a highly productive bat in his role. But far from our “best hitter”.
& how exactly did the Yankees “absolutely ruin him”? By allowing him to get hurt? Or be outplayed upon his return? He’s battled injuries since 2018 & when given a chance hasn’t seized the opportunity (like Urshela did.)
On his defense:
After you have watched enough baseball, you will realize that almost all players are incomplete or flawed in some way. That is why players like Mike Trout are so highly regarded, Sam. Miggy is just another flawed player. The kid – by all accounts – works really hard. He just kinda sucks defensively & most likely always will.
His future is at DH. Won’t be with us, though. I wish him the best. He was a fun player…at least with the bat.
Edit:According to BTV he has a trade value of 0.0. *Maybe* Cash can get a reliever for him + some of our roster jetsam. But I think that’s the absolute best Yankee fans can hope for & even that doesn’t strike me as all that realistic.
1. When injuries happened Andujar often batted 4th. He was the best clutch hitter on the team that year. The fans loved him.
2. They brought in Urshela to take is position BEFORE he was hurt. Quality organizations in all professional sports have a rule about a player not losing his position if he’s hurt. The Yankees hitting staff has had 3 years to get the man back to his hitting style. In the meantime they’ve also had him learn to play LF and 1B at the major league level. They jacked him around like they jacked Gleyber around by bringing in a left-handed bat durng the season to play 2B (Odor is a terrible 2B) and moving Gleyber to SS – thereby weakening their defense a 2 positions, and hurting Gleyber’s offensive production, as well as upending his mental approach – if they were going to move him they should have let him know during the offseason so he could prepare.
–
Hank Aaron was once asked about hitting HR’s. Was it balancing from the trunk of the body to generate the power? Was it the quickness and power in the wrists? (Hank had the quickest wrists on a batter I’ve ever seen.) Aaron responded that hitting HR’s was all about rhythm. Anyone in any physical artistic endeavor – from actors to musicians to athletes of any sort are trying to get into a rhythm. It’s why pitchers hold the ball and batters step out of the box every pitch – trying to break the other guys rhythm. Cashman thinks like the analytic people that grew up playing baseball on a computer. In MLB you don’t just take a guy and plug him into another position willy-nilly. Some guys can play multiple positions and still stay in rhythm, and that makes them valuable. But most can’t. It’s one thing to stretch a guys game by getting him to hit against the shift, make him a better baserunner etc. It’s another to stick him in positions he can’t play and mess around with his batting style. Quality organizations don’t jack around players that way.
Andujar needs to get out of there and work with an organization that will bring his confidence back and slowly re-work his hitting mechanics. And I have no doubt that he can be an adequate 3B or 1B if a team just leaves him there.
He hit clean up some. But – as you point out – that was necessitated by injury. It wasn’t anywhere close to his normal spot. & after Voit came over that was completely done.
Indeed, the Yanks primarily batted him out of the bottom third of the lineup more often than not the entire season.
Count me as a fan that loved him. His bat was a great counterpoint to that particular offense. But getting back to your original assertion, Andjuar was one of our top 5 (maybe 6) bats in ’18. Which is still excellent – especially in re the overall strength of that lineup – but falls well shy of “best hitter”.
You are COMPLETELY WRONG, Sam.
Urshela was a depth pickup who was pressed into service when Miggy got hurt. There is no other way to say it. Your premise & subsequent diatribe are flawed from the very beginning. This is what sucks about posting with you, serious. I have no idea how you come up with some of this stuff, man. But you are 100% INCORRECT.
It is easily verifiable. Hank Aaron quotes aside. How can I take the rest of your take seriously when your opening claim is completely backwards.
& I have all kinds of doubts he’ll ever be an adequate fielder. That is based on actually watching him play (ooof! not easy) & any & all defensive metrics modern or traditional. He is a terrible fielder. An all time terrible fielder. He has poor range & subpar reaction times which can now be quantified. Love the kid. Brutal defender.
It certainly wouldn’t be surprising if Arizona wanted to maximize a return for Marte and prioritized that over salary relief, but if they wanted to move Bumgarner and the whopping 60m still owed to him, Marte’s the only player that’s going to get that done without cash being involved.
How many more years do the Angels have to go without making the playoffs before Mike Trout finally requests a trade?
4
He’s not asking for a trade
nashville’s tv market is tiny. not even 1 million.
I requested that “Mark” tell me a bedtime story before the end of the chat and he didn’t answer my comment smh
Now I won’t be able to fall asleep tonight. Thanks “Mark”
Two things:
1. About the ‘Guardians’ new merchandise generating more revenue in sales – last I knew the selling of team merchandise went into a central fund and was split equally with all 30 franchises.
Was that not true? If it was the situation when did it change?
2. The White Sox may be playing in a large market, but they’re not on equal ground with the Cubs in that area – haven’t been for over half a century. More money is on the North Side, the Cubs long have owned that town (not as bad as the A’s vs. the Giants, but definitely not on par with Yankees-Mets or Dodgers-Angels). Don’t have cable so I’m not sure if Cubs games are still going around the country on WGN. But I do know that relocated Cubs fans show up strong for road games in Arizona and California – the White Sox not so much. Point being that the Sox bring in a fraction of the revenue the Cubs bring in.
As to sharing the revenue from merchandize sales, I know that’s the way the NFL does it. I’ve never heard that MLB does it that way.
I can’t imagine much of a buying frenzy anyway unless they get better logos. The guardians name is okay, those logos are minor league angels logos.
Spot on with the logo assessment. I don’t mind the Guardians name, especially knowing there’s a connection to the city, but the typeface used is unnecessarily like the Indians. Move on. It would have been nicer to have seen the Guardians typeface more of an art deco style more in line with the Guardian statues outside the stadium that’s a great look.
Now the G-logo with wings looks like early-2000’s Anaheim Angels that only lasted for 4 years.
About the “payroll floor”……
It’s standard business practice that when one is in a smaller market, the best way to compete is to be creative, smart, and with the advent of computers – use technology.
Smaller market teams such as the Rays, Brewers, A’s, Guardians, (now) Pirates and Orioles put resources into making smart decisions on how to acquire players, develop and maintain them, deploy them, and manage games throughout the season.
In todays market $20m buys a team a seemingly quality veteran player. But if small market teams were forced to spend it, most of those players would elect to sign with the larger market teams where they may get national exposure and feel they have a better chance of winning. At that point does some authority figure come in and force some of players in that category to take the offers from the small market teams? How does one administer this?
More importantly, that $20m (or $30m or $40m) goes a long way in buying equipment, hiring people to use it, and pay travel expenses in order to maximize the production a team can get from their roster for the money they’re laying out.
What we’re seeing with the Mets situation is not the personality thing that the media and chatroom posters are making fun of. What we’re seeing is a paradigm shift in MLB regarding FO jobs. Many talented people are motivated not just by money, but by the challenge of using new tools and methods to accomplish results, as well as the desire to be with co-workers that are of equal minds. Maybe working for the Mets or Yankees pays more, and maybe they have a bigger budgets – but if your findings and recommendations are going to be trumped by decision makers that just throw money at the big names available, then it’s not an attractive position or a sustainable one. Any qualified person can do that.
Along the same lines – about a year ago a study was done of the top 10% of engineering graduates from the engineering departments of American colleges. They simply asked the graduates to be where they wanted to work. Something like 85-90% said they wanted to work for an Elon Musk company. Sure, maybe they’d make more money at an established car company like Ford; a company manufacturing satellites; or any number of traditional power companies. But those people were motivated by being a part of something that finds new ways of accomplishing results that are of higher quality for less money. They want to be a part of a change in the way business is done.
Even if you make teams to have a minimum 100 million team payroll, btw that is the 40 man roster not just 26. Even a teams like the A’a and Reys, the ownership groups would still profit around 100 million a season. The other problem is, teams like the Reys and Marlins, sign their star players to extensions. Then go low on the the first few seasons, then trade them to get rid of the contract,
Guardians are NOT winning the AL Central in 2022!