The Marlins aren’t 24 hours removed from agreeing to a four-year, $53MM contract with free-agent outfielder Avisail Garcia, but MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports they’re still seeking offensive upgrades (all Twitter links). Outfielders appear the priority, with Heyman listing Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Chris Taylor and Eddie Rosario among the possible targets.
Miami already guaranteed $53MM to Garcia over the next four seasons — a hefty splash by their typically modest standards. It’d be a surprise to see them follow that up by signing any of Castellanos, Schwarber or Taylor, as all three are expected to top that four-year deal landed by Garcia. Castellanos is reported to be seeking a contract of as many as seven or eight years in length, though it seems likely he’ll ultimately settle in a bit shy of that mark. Even still, there’s a good chance he’ll double the Garcia total.
Schwarber and Taylor, meanwhile, could both land larger four- or even five-year deals than Garcia signed. Schwarber parlayed a huge season between Washington and Boston into a strong free-agent stock, while Taylor has long been a steady super-utility piece for the Dodgers, He’d give Miami an option in center field for at least the first season or two of the deal — something they very much crave — and he’d give them some cover in the infield as well. That could be particularly appealing to Miami after the Marlins saw each of Miguel Rojas, Jazz Chisholm and Brian Anderson miss significant time in 2021.
Rosario, 30, seems like a more viable fit in Miami than the other names on the list — at least from a price perspective. The longtime Twins outfielder was non-tendered by Minnesota last winter, signed a one-year deal in Cleveland and found himself headed to the Braves in what amounted to a deadline salary dump. Rosario took off in Atlanta, however, returning from the injured list to slash .271/.330/.573 in his final 106 plate appearances. His heater continued into the postseason, where he won NLCS MVP honors. Even with a quiet World Series, Rosario still posted a massive .383/.456/.617 slash in 68 playoff plate appearances.
Streaky play of that nature has been the norm throughout Rosario’s career. In general, he’s a free-swinging left fielder with plenty of power but a low walk rates and dwindling defensive ratings. Dating back to the 2017 season, Rosario is a .278/.315/.484 hitter, but those numbers have tailed off in recent years. Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating still peg Rosario as a decent left fielder, but not the standout defender he was in 2018. Statcast’s Outs Above Average, however, graded Rosario harshly and ranked him worst among all MLB outfielders (-18).
Both Castellanos and Taylor rejected qualifying offers, meaning they’d cost the Marlins their third-highest pick in next year’s draft. Schwarber and Rosario were ineligible to receive qualifying offers by virtue of being traded midseason (though only Schwarber would’ve commanded one).
dan_plays_drums
Trade with O’s for Santander?
Habeto
Trade with O’s for Mullins. I’ll give you Sixto Sánchez, Elieser Hernández, Daniel Castano and Lewis Brinson + a low A prospect. What would you say?
Bledcam
Zero chance I take that deal if I’m the Orioles. Marlins are giving up half of Mullins trade value in that deal.
Snorgator
Yeah this is a classic “can I get your best player for my spare pieces, prospects flops, and injured players without giving up any top prospects” offer
Habeto
Marlins are giving:
1. An established top 100 MLB prospect who ALREADY showed he can perform at the big leagues and the postseason (ask the Cubs). He has yet a lot to prove but his potential is a front line starter.
2. A back-end rotation starter / long reliever who is getting better, with several years of contract control.
3. A rotation depth piece / long reliever who performed rather well in 2020 and so-so in 2021.
4. A piece of crap but good glove CF who can play decent platoon splits.
5. A prospect, especially if it is a Top 30 pitching prospect.
Mullins had a monster year and I’d really like him as a Fish, but can he sustain his one-season magic? I think is a fair deal, and if it is not, it is close to.
jdgoat
Sanchez and Hernandez is a strong start to an offer. The other pieces might have to be slightly upgraded but it wouldn’t take much more. Sanchez could easily end up being more valuable long term than Mullins.
myaccount2
Not even close to the Frazier/Andujar offers, Snorgator. This proposal wouldn’t get it done, but the first two, maybe even three players could absolutely be part of a package. They’d probably need to part with another top 10-15 prospect instead of Brinson, though.
Habeto
Agree. But Brinson was more like a thrown-in to bridge the CF position while the O’s prospects are ready. Makes totally sense to me… but yeah, maybe a better prospect instead of Castano? Neidert or Garrett?
stretch123
Sixto isn’t going anywhere. Max Meyer though, I could see him being dealt.
dan_plays_drums
I say “lol”.
Habeto
OK, LoL. What would you ask for Mullins, then?
Bledcam
Here are the BTV values for all of the players you suggested:
BAL –
Mullins – 66.2
MIA –
Sanchez – 27.2
Hernandez – 5.2
Castano – 0
Brinson – 0
So you’re asking for Baltimore to give up 66.2 in value while sending them 32.4 in value back. Are we seeing the problem here?
Habeto
You know, I used BTV after the season finished to trade for Mullins:
fishstripes.com/2021/10/9/22718312/early-offseason…
At that time (not so long ago), Sixto was valued 52,5. So other 3 prospects made the deal easy. I guess Sixto’s value has gone down since his injury, but he still is a top 100 prospect even without throwing a single pitch the whole year.
Ok, I’ll change Sixto for Pablo Lopez. Do we have a deal?
Goose
Age and control ability has to be factored in with Mullins.
It may be more like:
Sixto
Eliesser
Bleday
Burdick
Brinson (As a throw in)
Habeto
Sixto
Elieser
Burdick or Bleday (not both)
Garrett or McCambley (not both)
Brinson
Deal? I’m giving more pitching, which is actually what the O’s need.
Happyfoolsteve
I would trade Santander for a pitcher in a heartbeat. Maybe Hernandez or Lopez? Give them Stewart too. O’s have depth in the OF, but I would definitely try to keep Mullins unless they get a ridiculously good offer.
Habeto
Pablo López is a top 30 starter in the entire MLB. You won’t get him for Santander and Stewart.
So what would be your ridiculous offer for Mullins? What would you ask for?
Happyfoolsteve
I would probably take the deal you proposed earlier…missed it when I commented before. Seems fair and I think the Marlins and O’s match up well for a potential deal. I get your point on Mullins. I feel like last year may have been his peak, but I also believe he can be a solid player going forward. The Orioles need a core to build around and Mullins can be part of it. The question is, will the O’s keep him, Means and Mancini around.
Milwaukee-2208
Want JBJ?
Please?
Habeto
Sure. JBJ + 9 million in exchange of Harrison, Brinson and Isan Díaz. Sorry, I don’t have Yamamoto anymore..
Dustyslambchops23
What will Grichuk and Kirk get the jays?
Habeto
That is quite interesting. I would say: Holloway, Campbell and Devers… Maybe?
ellisburks
Laughed out of the room. Grichuk is a sunk cost and Kirk won’t get you a whole hell of a lot.
Dustyslambchops23
A young controllable catcher who has already proven he can hit mlb pitching gets you laughed out of the room?
Interesting perspective
jdgoat
After seeing what Severino got in free agency, Kirk alone would bring back a good MLB caliber starting pitcher. He has a lot of value.
stretch123
I feel like that would probably net you guys Elieser Hernandez of Zach Thompson as the main piece, in addition to a mid level prospect such as Kameron Misner or Kyle Nicholas.
Bottom line, it would net you a No 4/5 starter and maybe a mid level prospect.
Habeto
I think it is a bit too much. Elieser and maybe Encarnación or Harrison
beknighted
Brinson, Isan Diaz, Paul Campbell, and (if you’re lucky) cash and/or a PTBNL
stretch123
With the addition of Avi Garcia, I’d try to pry away Kevin Kiermaier from the Rays. An OF of Sanchez, Kiermaier and Garcia would be fun to watch. I don’t think he would be expensive to trade for either. Maybe a Conner Scott + Kyle Nicholas package gets it done?
Habeto
Seriously? The Marlins need bats, not GG OFs. Kiermaier is not much of an upgrade over Brinson. There is a bunch of offensive upgrades that the Marlins can make just via trade. Kiermaier? No, thanks.
stretch123
You clearly do not understand baseball. CF is a premium defensive position and it makes more sense to trade for a guy with a high salary on a cost conscious team as opposed to trading for a guy like Mullins or Reynolds where you’d give up multiple top prospects. There are a lack of CF options on the FA market…
Signing Garcia already addresses the need of a bat in the middle of the lineup. With the universal DH being added to the NL, Marlins could easily trade for Kiermaier, and then bring in a guy like Schwarber (or maybe Rizzo) to solidify 1B/DH along with Aguilar… they can have Aguilar/Garcia/Schwarber in the middle of the lineup while having elite CF defense.
2B Chisholm
DH Aguilar
1B Rizzo/Schwarber
RF Garcia
3B Anderson
LF Sanchez
SS Rojas
CF Kiermaier
C FA/trade target
Habeto
So I need to improve my team’s offensive and I trade a CF to bat him 8th? A guy that is a .249/.310/.410 lifetime and averages 98+ OPS with a WAR almost entirely made by his defensive prowesses?
And then I have to go after Rizzo/Schwarber to fix the problem on the first place? What would I bother? And I am the one not understanding baseball? Dude…
stretch123
What’s wrong with batting him 8th? Even the No8 hitter on a contender is important. Think Alex Gonzalez from 2003 😉
Anyway, Marlins need a CF. If they don’t land Chris Taylor they will HAVE to trade for one. I personally don’t think Mullins, Reynolds or any other controllable one would be worth the price it would take to acquire them when Kiermaier can be had for less talent due to his higher salary.
Zonedeads
I think it’s you who doesn’t understand baseball!
jensan
Jays trade Gurriel Jr + Lopez for Sixto Sanchez or
Martinez + Gurriel Jr + Kirk for Pablo Lopez
Habeto
Gurriel Jr + Kirk for Sixto Sánchez, Jordan Holloway and Jerar Encarnación (Marlins #27 prospect, OF/1B)
jp82
Rosario at this point is an older/worst defender than Jesus Sanchez. Unless the Marlins are truly convinced about running Avi out there to CF on a daily basis, it’d make 0 sense to sign Rosario.
Habeto
If the Marlins don’t bring an establish CF via trade, the CF will be played by Brayan De La Cruz. García and Jesús Sánchez will play the corners.
jp82
Honestly, it just feels like we are going around in circles plugging the holes left open by not extending Marte last year and not hanging on to Duvall. Are we really any better at this point than we were on opening day last year.
solaris602
I imagine Rosario’s asking price increased following his WS performance. If I was the Marlins I’d wait out his market until Feb when his years and $$$ match reality.
Bob333
Jeter shot his load with Garcia and will not sign anymore big time free agents.Garcia will be outta here in 2yrs anyway.
Whiskey and leather balls
Max Meyer for jo adell…a win for all sides
Habeto
This is also interesting, but you might have to add another Angels prospect (e.g., Vera, Ramirez, Knowles). Why? Adell wasn’t so impressive in the big leagues (tho he’s still very young) and Meyer had a monster year in AA and a very good cup of coffee in AAA. Max will be ready by the end of 2022 and looks like he is the real deal. I personally would trade Sixto Sanchez rather than Meyer, but Adell is an interesting prospect.
Whiskey and leather balls
Sixto has DL beside his name too much for that trade to go down. Miami would have to add a name but i agree Meyer would be a steep price
bravesfan
Eddie does make a lot of sense for the marlins
MarlinsFanBase
I think Christ Taylor is the play here since it opens options up for the Marlins rotating players, especially in the OF with Bryan de la Cruz.
Habeto
I agree, but I am not sure about the asking price. Moreover, the length of the contract. Trading players is a safer bet, IMHO.
iknoweverythingesq
Who will Miami trade Garcia to next year is the real question on everyone’s mind.