The Mariners announced their agreement with reigning American League Cy Young winner Robbie Ray, as first reported by Michael Mayer of MetsMerized (Twitter link). It’s a five-year deal worth $115MM and an opt-out after the third season, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (via Twitter). Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds that the contract includes a full no-trade clause in the first two seasons and a trade assignment bonus if he’s moved thereafter. Ray is represented by VC Sports Group.
Ray, 30, has long been a premier strikeout arm with command issues, which culminated in a 2020 season that saw him traded from Arizona to Toronto in what amounted to a salary dump. While the lefty didn’t immediately turn things around, the Jays jumped to re-sign him for a year and $8MM right out of the gate in the 2020-21 offseason, clearly believing they could help the lefty find another gear.
Even the Toronto front office’s best-case scenario might not have mirrored the 2021 breakout enjoyed by Ray, who was near-unanimously named AL Cy Young (29 of 30 first-place votes). Ray not only restored his command to prior levels but took it to new heights, walking a career-low 6.7% of his opponents. Ray ramped up the usage of his four-seamer at the expensive of his curveball, largely favoring a two-pitch mix that leaned heavily on his plus slider’s ability to perplex opponents.
The results were obviously outstanding, as Ray compiled an AL-best 2.84 ERA and also paced the American League in innings pitched (193 1/3), total strikeouts (248) and ERA+ (154). Among pitchers with at least 100 innings, Ray’s overall 32.1% strikeout rate trailed only Corbin Burnes, Carlos Rodon, Max Scherzer, Freddy Peralta and Gerrit Cole. His 15.5% swinging-strike rate ranked third among the 129 hurlers who tossed 100-plus frames.
Ray was still prone to the long ball, evidenced by an unsightly 1.54 HR/9 mark, but his ability to keep runners off the basepaths led to nearly 70 percent of those long balls coming with the bases empty. It’s fair to wonder how much concern over that penchant might have impacted his market and kept him from reaching a sixth guaranteed year, but one would also imagine that a move to Seattle and a move out of the generally hitter-friendly AL East will only help to lower that mark.
With Ray departing the Blue Jays, it’s hard to ignore the striking similarity between his contract and the $110MM guaranteed by his former team to another free-agent starter: righty Kevin Gausman. Perhaps the Jays weren’t keen on including an opt-out in the deal, or perhaps they just generally prefer Gausman to Ray when all is said and done. Toronto did pursue Gausman both in the 2019-20 and 2020-21 offseasons, so he’s clearly been of interest to GM Ross Atkins & Co. for quite some time.
In signing Ray, who rejected a qualifying offer in Toronto, the Mariners will surrender their third-highest selection in the 2022 draft. Toronto, meanwhile, will pick up a compensatory pick at the end of the first round by virtue of the fact that Ray signed for more than $50MM in guaranteed money.
With the Mariners, Ray will head up a rotation that also includes lefty Marco Gonzales, righty Chris Flexen and righty Logan Gilbert. Gonzales has long been a steady and durable source of above-average innings, while Flexen proved to be a savvy KBO reclamation project for president of baseball ops Jerry Dipoto and his staff this past offseason. Gilbert, meanwhile, is a former first-round pick and top-end pitching prospect who struggled in the middle of the 2021 season but bookended those struggles with a strong start and strong finish to the season.
Other options in the Seattle rotation currently include Justus Sheffield and Justin Dunn, though the Mariners are deep in tantalizing pitching prospects after a protracted rebuilding effort. Top prospects George Kirby, Matt Brash and Emerson Hancock are all progressing through the system, with Brash and Kirby in particular not far from big league readiness. Lefty Brandon Williamson, too, could emerge as an option before long.
Of course, it’s fair to wonder with all that pitching depth and with a good bit of outfield depth, if the Mariners might not choose to trade for another established rotation piece. Ray figures to be the big-ticket free agent addition on the pitching side — not that they couldn’t simply sign another notable arm — but there’s a bevy of quality arms rumored to be available in trade. Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Luis Castillo have all had their names kicked about the rumor circuit already, and the Marlins are reportedly open to dealing from their pitching depth as well. Whether it’s a trade or a free agent, another addition to the starting staff to complement the Mariners’ new ace seems likely at some point.
For the time being, it’s possible Seattle will pivot to acquire the bat Dipoto has already suggested he hopes to sign. Dipoto name-checked both Marcus Semien (now with the Rangers) and Javier Baez earlier this winter in voicing a desire to add some “adaptable” free agents, and the Mariners have also been tied to Kris Bryant and Chris Taylor, among others.
From a payroll vantage point, there’s no reason the Mariners shouldn’t be able to add a high-end bat and another rotation addition piece. Even after adding Ray, the Mariners are still projected by Roster Resource’s Jason Martinez to field a payroll of about $88MM (assuming an even distribution of his $23MM annual value). For a Mariners club that has taken payroll north of $150MM in the past, there’s plenty of space to add to pile. Ray currently stands as the largest free-agent addition the Mariners have made under Dipoto, but if he wants to spend more aggressively, the means to do should be present.
After all, the Mariners are staring down a two-decade playoff drought, and now more than ever might be the time for Seattle to push toward ending that dry spell. The Mariners were surprisingly in contention for a Wild Card berth right up until the final weekend of the offseason, and they’ll have even more products of their ballyhooed farm system graduating to the Majors in 2022 — headlined by outfielder Julio Rodriguez. Beyond that, the A’s are on the verge of a tear-down that will see them trade several key players, while the Astros could lose Carlos Correa in free agency. The Rangers are spending aggressively to help put a contender back on the field in the second season of their newly constructed stadium but may be a year or two from truly competing.
In many ways, the time for the Mariners to throttle ahead is now, and the signing of Ray serves as a firm indicator that the front office feels similarly. Armed with an elite farm system and tens of millions of dollars in payroll space, Seattle appears poised for an aggressive winter where Ray is just one of several high-end additions.
Photo courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.
Let’s go!!! I preferred Ray to Gausman, so I’m very happy.
Shiver me timbers. Ahahahaha!
Best poster on the site.
I would also prefer Ray to Gausman. I’m shocked the contracts are so similar. I guess it’s because Ray was bad in 2020 and he also required draft compensation. Gausman was terrible in 2019 though and didn’t look very good at any point before that. I like Ray’s strikeout ability. I always looked at his down years as more of a fluke kind of like Scherzer’s early years with Detroit or even Verlander’s season where he posted an ERA over 5.00. I get the opposite feeling with Gausman though. It feels like Gausman’s years with the Giants are the fluke and I doubt he would have pitched that well with any other team. I see Toronto’s side of it though. They get to replace Ray with Gausman and still keep all the draft compensation.
Ray could have figured something out. He’s had the talent.
But, he’s still never posted 2 good years in a row.
Gausman at least did that these past 2 seasons.
Hopefully I’m wrong. Not a m’s fan but I’d like to see them succeed.
This why the Jays will never win a WS. How can they pay Gausman the same amount or even slightly more rather than offering this to Ray who became a Cy winner with us !!!!
I really hope Gausman turns out the way that they live for the rest of their live’s regretting it. What a hunch of idiots !
Because they get a draft pick with this for basically the same pitcher in regards to stats.
So, that doesn’t mean Gausman will be another Ray and the draft pick is not guaranteed to become a Super Star my man !
On the other hand, Ray was already proven material in the tough AL East ! That’s my bread and butter right there !
Have you considered that maybe Ray didn’t want to return? There are legit reasons for him to have both loved his time in TO and want to play in the US
I always love hearing about players personal preference that explain why they chose offer x over nearly identical offer y.
Anyone willingly choosing Seattle must love being on planes though
Ken Rosenthal wrote an article last year about some folks in Canada not really understanding free agency. ‘to4’ thinks his Blue Jays had a choice between Ray and Gausman. Didn’t look to me like Ray had much interest in returning to Toronto, I’m sure they’d had numerous convos and the Blue Jays moved on. The guys that don’t understand free agency, that think the Blue Jays just pick which players want to sign in Canada long term, have a harder time moving on because they don’t understand the process to begin with.
I’d imagine pitching in the AL West versus the AL East could also be preferable for Ray.
that’s ridiculous and not at all what i was saying. you see just as much nonsense fall from fans of other teams.
Having spent time in both cities I don’t see this as a step backwards for Ray.
That’s the only reason I could think off !
Probably got tired of playing in Buffalo
and rain
@ to4 – Hate to break it to you, the Jays have won 2 WS
28 years ago my man.
Flags fly forever
And the Mariners, who entered MLB in 1977 with the Jays, have how many titles?
@DanielDannyDano. That would be a big goose egg
Yeah, almost 30 years ago ! Done living in the past !
And the Dodgers haven’t won a World Series in a non joke season since 1988.
To be fair the Mariners were owned by a corporation that only cared about profit for 25+ year.
@to4. regardless of good baseball decisions or bad ones, how about wishing teams and players being their best and then taking the approach, “may the best team win??”
The jays have won 2 World Series thank you very much
So what is relevant about Toronto having won 2 world series? Is Tony Fernandez going to catch Rays groundballs?
Players consider many factors when deciding where to sign. If a team won 29 years ago is not on the list.
Hey guess what??
The Kraken and Maple Leafs have the same number of Stanley Cups in the last 50+ years.
That would be a big goose egg
Beautifully said ! Thanks for that !
Such similar pitchers here. Their stats were virtually identical last year. Same Age. Big difference is the Jays now get a draft pick – which is very valuable. This signing is in no way the difference between winning a WS vs had they signed Ray. You are a fair weathered fan. Most would think you are the idiot not management.
If you knew anything about baseball, Or structuring contracts you might know that the Jays could not agree to both the opt-out or the no-trade clauses that Ray was demanding. The Jays molded Ray into a winner and yet he made these unacceptable demands as part of his wish-list.
I definitely prefer gausman to ray.
This is a very good contract for Robbie Ray. I’m very surprised that the Giants were not able to sign Scherzer, Ray or re-sign Gausman. I wonder what the Giants are doing because they have enough resources to sign anyone maybe they could sign Stroman.
I also am a bit baffled. They came out of the gate strong resigning Disco and rumors had them resigning Wood and adding Cobb. All of that would have set up one big SP signing. Wood and Cobb still have not been inked. They may yet go after Stroman. It looks like they will try to trade for a #1 or 2 starter.
Not surprised about Scherzer: no way Z would ever throw that kind of money around. They probably had concerns about year 5 for both Gausman and Ray.
But they do have a lot of money with some glaring holes, so one only can hope that Z will pony up (I am sure ownership has given him the green light)
@Eric and @Francys, agreed on everything you both stated. I was hoping Z would sign a top end FA SP, but the prices have been a little high. I can understand passing of Max’s 43MM per and as much as I have liked Gaus for the past two years, 5 years was a looonngg contract for his offerings and age. But this Ray deal seems about right to me. I would’ve thought Z would’ve pushed harder. Maybe it’s Stro or…..Z is working a big trade?? We need more SP and there’s not much left.
Kershaw?
Kershaw will be a Ranger
Pavlovic reports Alex Wood to sign today. Had is physical already
Agreed. Farhan can’t count on being able to dumpster dive a winning team every year, or players in their mid 30s having career seasons again. The time is now to spend, and they still have 2 rotation spots to fill (if Wood signs) and no depth at SP. Stroman is the best pitcher left, and might be in a position to play hardball on a contract now that the supply has dwindled.
Farhan Zaidi has not given a contract beyond three years or more than 36 million. In my opinion that is why nobody is signing with SF Giants
Not Farhans fault.
Look no further than Mr Johnson
Since this has been a thing with the Giants for nigh on decades, and multiple GMs, I’m inclined to think it’s not a problem with the current, but rather the person/ people he must get permission from.
Other teams have precisely this problem (namely the featured Mariners).
Why didn’t the Yankees jump on this. This is an affordable contract. Another missed opportunity by Cashman
Because Cashman is an idiot! Thinks Montgomery is the same as Ray
It’s your owner. He has to free up the cash. He’s a Steinbrenner in name, not actions.
Which is why my father and I have this running joke why he cares more about buying a brand new yacht than the Yankees.
“Why didn’t the Yankees jump on this”……..That’s what happens when you already have TWO 300 million dollar players on your roster(Cole and Stanton) and an UNSIGNED Aaron Judge waiting in the wings for a MASSIVE PAYDAY.
Correct. Even the deepest pockets can only afford so many $20-$35M/year contracts at one time. Maybe the next CBA will make that easier, but you can’t make deals now that will doom a team to luxury tax hell for years to come. That’s just throwing good money after bad.
Not really. The Yankees have no issue affording that. This is something different.
Do you think the Yankees should sign everyone….don’t you understand that money doesn’t buy a world series
As an Angels fan I’m wondering where we were. Trout and Ohtani and won’t make the playoffs again.
Yes, I feel sorry for you Angel’s fans. Management hasn’t figured out how to win.
You really don’t think they will be in the playoffs? I think they a have decent chance and could look really good once they do make moves. With a lineup like they have? They need pitching, but not landing an ace doesn’t mean they wont good, and it’s too early to say that They need bullpen help too, but even a couple #3 type arms and a couple good relievers and they might be favorites to be second in the AL west depending on what the Mariners and A’s do.
Or perhaps Cashman was never allowed the opportunity?
It’s not a video game where you can sign any player you want and trade garbage for gold against poorly-programmed (or even well-programmed) AI.
There are numerous factors beyond “I haz munny. I wantz playurr. I getz play ur”.
Noooo. Please no. Re-sign with the Jays.
I was thinking the same thing!!! 🙁
Ray for 5 million more with the opt out or Gausman and the QO pick. I honestly don’t know which is better but my guess Jays were hedging their bets on this one
No state income tax in Washington. Blue Jays would have had to pay a lot more just to match.
you assume that players are equally willing to play for Seattle and Toronto. while that may have been the case in the past, it would appear that Toronto is the more attractive market right now… I’d imagine a lack of opt out, lack of trade bonus, lack of no-trade clause, $5M savings and a 2nd round pick all made the Gausman deal just a little more attractive to the Jays
Only the home games are taxed at the “home” rate so with Ontario’s at 13.16 % , The Jays would have to pay 12.2m more + the difference in federal rates. Would have been been approx. 20m more so call it 5 @130m .
So basically its 20m+ the draft pick being the difference. Hopefully 20m put back into the team .
The Mariners finished 1 game behind the Blue Jays. I don’t think the Blue Jays are more attractive to everybody. Lots of factors including being in another country, higher taxes, etc…
I thought it was where you live.
That’s a great breakdown. Not sure many people take 5hat into consideration when commenting on contracts.
Highest sales tax wipes out no income tax. You get to keep it all until you wanna do something crazy like spend it….
The tax situations are wild. I heard Tom Tolbert tell this story about his tax person and how the game checks are from where the individual games are played
No, it’s where you work
You think Toronto is more attractive to Americans like Robbie Ray than Seattle. LOL!!! Toronto isn’t even more attractive to Canadians than Seattle. If there was a lottery allowing people in Toronto to move to Seattle it would be oversold.
The pick that the M’s give up, if there still is draft compensation for FA signings in the new CBA, will be a 3rd pick.
Heard the chop zone is an up and coming neighbourhood, great school district.
I was drooling thinking of both Ray and Gaus being signed by the Jays. Happy to have at least signed one of them! Next up is an infielder.
VBC
I was as well 🙂 Thinking what a rotation Ray/Gausman/Berrios/Manoah/Ryu would make . That is 5 above avg pitcher- not sure any team in baseball can say that.
Too late!!!!
YES
Go M’s
Stroman and Rodons market just got red hot
Some good trade targets too: the 3 Oakland and 3 Reds SPs especially.
Yeah I’m wondering when Oakland starts the fire sale. Guess the value of their pitchers just climbed huh?
Bingo!
Now for 1 more big bat. (maybe)
One more day to go.
YES!!! Now we’re talking! The stud starter we need! Now just add a quality bat…
Wow, that’s a phenomenal deal when compared to what Toronto just gave Gausman. I’m going to miss Robbie, that really was such a special season he had last year. It’s hard to believe that they wouldn’t offer five million more than they just did to Gausman to bring him back. I doubt gaining that one extra pick would have too much of an impact on that.
Cashman still MIA!!! Someone needs to go check on him to make sure he’s still breathing
They obviously prefer Gausman to Ray (we dont know if they are right or wrong yet) because the $5M and comp pick isnt that much. I really liked Ray but I have to assume Petey Walks knows what he is doing.
There’s talk on Twitter he also isn’t vaccinated which could be a huge part of this. Playing in Canada as an unvaccinated player absolutely sucks. So many rules they have to follow. Probably just didn’t want to deal with that.
True, they wont be allowed to play in Toronto unless vaccinated this year.
When you go to Canada, its like stepping into a time machine back to 2020. Everyone wears masks everywhere… outside, inside, etc. I guess they have loosened some restrictions the past couple months, but its brutal up there for the most part.
Yeah it’s brutal we’re trying to stop a virus from spreading and protecting our citizens
Bucs
How is wearing a mask indoors in public brutal? Seriously if that is brutal thankfully you never had to experience anything like WWII.
Shocking how weak some of you lot are.
You are the same guy a few months ago saying we ” ALL” were wearing masks on golf courses etc . Copy and paste the same comment again and again, the extent of your intellect? .
Maybe best you refrain from putting your ignorance on full display.
bucsfan0004 – It really is no different in King County where Seattle is. There is a mask mandate at all venues, but there is not a vaccine requirement to attend or participate in events.
Umm, i don’t golf so i really can’t refer to anything being done on golf courses. And i will continue to say that wearing masks outside while walking around is stupid. The virus is contracted by spending approximately 12+ minutes in close contact with another person in a non-ventilated area. So if the rules say wear a mask indoors, fine. I’m not going to be the jagoff who refuses and says ‘Merica’. If you took a minute to read what i wrote, i was speaking to the atmosphere in Canada.
While we have basically forgone any mitigation we were once doing, Canada is still in the year 2020. We have moved on. Anecdotally speaking, i have been to several sold out football games, and there were no vaccine requirements and i didn’t see a mask anywhere.
There is a reason why the US has 3.5x as many deaths per capita as Canada and you are an example why.
You are using what as a reference? One trip to Toronto over the summer going to a public beach area ? But that VAST experience qualifies you to speak with authority on nation wide protocols . Typical of you lot.
If you honestly think 5MM dollars was the reason he signed elsewhere I don’t know what to tell you. Clearly the Jays could match and most likely offered to. I think he just straight up didn’t want to play in Canada. He sounded like he had a foot out the door in every interview he gave after winning the Cy and he never chose to be in Toronto to begin with.
Never chose to be in Toronto? hmm care to explain why he signed with them last year for 8m as a FA?
Love the baseball knowledge .
After his 2020, he was lucky to get that much. It was a one-year make-good contract. Generally, players aren’t all that picky on where they go for those.
Because it’s one year and he was desperate?
I mean he did sign with Toronto last year on a 1 year deal after the trade.
LOL! It’s that time in the offseason, this year it only took til November, when all the Blue Jays fans have a breakdown about a process they don’t understand. Last offseason Ken Rosenthal wrote that a lot of Toronto fans don’t understand free agency. This one, jdgoat, thinks his Blue jays went into the free agent store and saw a Robbie Ray on a shelf for 5MM more than a Kevin Gausman so they took the Kevin Gausman. He doesn’t understand that his FO would have had conversations with Ray’s team to gauge the level of interest in returning and moved on when it was clear he didn’t want to return.
I looked up one of the interviews you talked about and you sure are right. At the 6 minute mark of this its “thanks Toronto fans but we like free agency!’. Amazing that people don’t get it even when it’s that clear.
youtube.com/watch?v=R_f6imScwqc
Anyway, good post bhd360.
@Best Screenname Ever
This is the best post on here and needs to be repeated 20 times.
“This one, jdgoat, thinks his Blue jays went into the free agent store and saw a Robbie Ray on a shelf for 5MM more than a Kevin Gausman so they took the Kevin Gausman.”
Nice deals for both clubs and both pitchers. Too bad at the end of the day all the noise is from Canadians stamping their little feet and pounding their little fists on the table about Robbie Ray and a process they don’t understand.
Everybody knows that you clearly know what you’re talking about when your only argument revolves around projection. True genius here.
Will be interesting to see if it’s a player option, a team option, or some combination of both. Either way a great surprise signing.
In JeDi we trust. LFG!!
WOW!
Odds he opts out?
Isolated from the rest of the league. Put a team in either Portland or Vancouver. Seattle needs a true regional rival.
The Mariners are going to wish they had an opt out after year 1 and 2 and 3 and 4.
Now add stroman.
I’m skeptical he can keep last year going.
Hopefully I’m wrong I don’t want to see people fail. He just has never shown consistent stuff.
I’m guessing it’s a player opt-out? That’s too much along with no trade clause?
Fair term, fair AAV. Not a bad deal for Seattle at all.
There we go. Let’s go Mariners, now let’s sign a big bat
I’m pulling for Bryant
Me too! Of course my Neverland dream is Freeman!
I’ve felt like Bryant was destined for the Mariners since the offseason began. Seems to be a pretty natural fit. If they can get him on a five year deal like Ray, both of their contracts would be up right as the Mariners young core starts getting expensive. I think the Mariners made the right move in letting the Rangers overpay for Semien, but they need to add at least one big bat for their offseason to be considered a true success.
We’ll if history repeats he’ll have a high 3s ERA next year, 4s the following and the wheels will fall off in year 3. But year 4, that’s going to be gold.
thanks Chaim
Why go after Ray when wacha can be your #3 behind #1 eovaldi and a recovering #2 sale?
Take a team short on pitching and… let guys leave and have a team with less pitching? Hmm..
I know the cubs weren’t going to get Ray or Gray but I just wish they’d do something more than only Wade Miley. That’s there only move this winter. I’m not counting Harold Ramirez. He likely doesn’t make the team out of spring training
It’s not time yet. Cubs over Athletics in 2028.
Lol. Any news about the cubs even if it’s just literal rumors. I did tell a friend of mine. Angels over Cubs 2025. It’d obviously suck seeing my team lose but I just want Mike Trout to win just won WS championship
Your Cubs beat Oakland in ‘28. My Braves beat the White Sox in ‘24 and the Angels in ‘30.
Wow! I thought he would get more. I can’t believe the Tigers didn’t try harder to get him. Earlier this morning, they were said to be interested.
Not really sure how I feel about this… I would have rather they spent money on someone like Corey Seager. Ray has one good year, which was last year. However, even his FIP last year was 3.69. I just feel like he is going to regress to his old self. One thing I will say is that I like the 11.5 SO/9. But dang… 20M until he’s 35…. I could see that going poorly very quickly.
Good points. Interesting too which teams DID not go after him, notably those with money and openings.
Seager’s going to cost probably 2.5x of Ray’s deal.
I love Seager but he’s arguably going to get 3 times the total value of RR’s contract AND he is injured frequently.
It was Seattle’s pitching that kept them in the race down the stretch last year- with YK and Tyler Anderson absent from the 2022 rotation SP is a huge priority. This is a fair contract IMO and I can’t wait to see who we add to these two new additions.
There’s so much payroll flexibility if the M’s wanted to they could sign RR and Kyle’s brother! It’s not our money so who cares how much they spend!? Haha
Of course, I’m almost 99.8 % sure they will NOT sign Seager and RR.
I know Seager will cost more, and I am happy with that cost. I feel like Seattle needs a left-handed bat in the middle of that lineup, since we desperately lack lefties with pop. Especially after losing Kyle and leaving the hole at 3B.
My point with Ray is simply this… there is no way I would have signed him in general. Yes, he won the Cy Young last year… but look at his stats literally every other year. Here are some ERAs (and FIPs) for his recent years: :
2016: 4.90 (3.76)
2017: 2.89 (3.72)
2018: 3.93 (4.31)
2019: 4.34 (4.29)
2020: 6.62 (6.50)
2021: 2.84 (3.69)
We are paying Ray $23M per season after his literal only successful season (his contract year) in his career outside of maybe 2017 in Arizona. Otherwise, he has never had a FIP under 3.50. So unless something drastically changed in his way of pitching before last season, the Mariners might begin to regret this signing as soon as the midway point of next year.
I wouldn’t sign anyone whose best and only good season is their contract season. Never.
2017 was basically the same as last year for almost all of his stats so he has done it before, but I agree, not the most reliable sp out there
Right? At least it appears some of his success last year was because he used a 2-seamer more often instead of his curveball. But still, it’s the risk for me. If 2021 was a fluke, we are paying $23M per year for a 4.00 ERA guy…. at which point, he could have been replaced by any of the 5 or so top pitching prospects in our system right now (Kirby, Hancock, Williamson, etc.)
These are the same people thinking Toronto made a good signing with Gausman and his sub .500 career record and 4+ ERA 2 years after being kicked to the curb and released by ATL.
So unless something drastically changed in his way of pitching before last season
———————————————–
Something did. Ray lowered his BB% by about 10 points!
@md, 4 of those years I’d take over any other option. We essentially replaced a .212 hitting third baseman for an elite starting pitcher. I’ll take that all day every day.
I’d love for us to get Corey Seager, but I can’t see that happening. After it was reported about Kyle Seager and Dipoto’s relationship, or lack thereof, irregardless of who’s at fault, do you really think Corey would sign here?
If the money is right, sure. I just felt like it would be worth it. We don’t have a 3B, Escobar and Semien have already signed, and now it looks like Seager might go to the Rangers potentially (a Rangers team that signed already signed Semien and Jon Gray)
That’s the deal, 10yrs/325MM to the Rangers.
What??!! Seattle?
Cashman is killing me. I really thought Ray was going for more money & years; even though I’m not comfortable with him for 5 years, it isn’t that bad.
AL west going crazy wtf
Yeah, Ohtani and Trout might be on last place team.
Hell yeah!!!!
Nice to see some new teams picking up the top free agents…..this should help with competitive balance throughout the league
Agree, but there is a LONG way to go.
Heck of a get for Seattle! Happy for you guys.
Thx pal, a great day for the Teal sea farers!! What a fantastic surprise
They still haven’t learned to not give pitchers long-term deals.
Very solid deal for the M’s. $23 million per for the reigning CY winner. Now they need to add a bat or 2.
Or a gigantic waste of money. They will look back and think, man we paid through the teeth for Ray’s one outlier good season. Tough pill to swallow but then again it’s the mariners, we expect mistakes like this.
I don’t understand this comment about 1 good year. He has had 3 excellent years, 2017/2018/2021. in 2019 he was still good and much better than league average. This was in no way an overpay. 5 years is team friendly and if he pitches like he did last year then he will opt out after 3 and the M’s will have reaped the benefits regardless. If this were a 7 year deal I would of been much more concerned.
I’m really getting annoyed with the yankees lol Literally just sitting twiddling their thumbs. Hal needs to go asap.
I’m surprised the Blue Jays didn’t offer him 5 million more to keep than sign Gausman but regardless good deal for Seattle.
Lol. Why do you think $5 million would have convinced him to stay in Toronto? He’s an American. Maybe he prefers not playing in a foreign country.
Is that why he signed with Toronto last year you doink.
Honestly I don’t understand how some of you function with out a helmet
Who gets the opt-out? The player or the organization? This contract is a lot of money to pay for his outlier year.
HThe AL Cy Young winner
Twitchy finger!
The AL Cy Young winner signed a deal for a $23MM AAV. Scherzer is making almost double that. Crazy.
The real winners are the Angels who signed Michael Lorenzen!
I sincerely hope the Red Sox are not aiming to sign Stroman given how this is playing out.
Couldn’t agree more. I’m hoping they sign Rodon for a 1 year deal with a 2nd year option. Then get Chris Taylor and knebel.
I’ve been saying for a while that the FA pitching market is a minefield. It’ll cost ~ $22M per for guys like Story and Baez, and they have long histories of success. Guys like Ray and Gausman are getting that type of money, and their backgrounds are much more tenuous. Verlander & Syndergaard getting that type of money and haven’t pitched in two years.
If I were Bloom, I’d sit out the pitching FA market completely. I’d be open to the trade market for guys like Castillo. But if the choice was between a guy like Story, who is a regular 5+ WAR player, or guys like Gausman, I wouldn’t think twice.
Story has been a 5 War player 2x in 6 years . How is that a regular 5 War player?
Steamer has him at 3.6 this year in line with both Gausman and Ray.
FA pitching is always going to be expensive and based on what you think Castillo will cost in trade there is 0 chance the Sox get him .
Good luck with Wacha .
Angels desperate for SP and they watch the Ranger get Gray and now even worse M’s get Ray…..
WTF Perry??
Atlanta could offer you Touki but we can’t guarantee much consistency.
Maybe that says more about the players than the team. These were not without their warts. Patience my friend, patience. Opportunities are still out there.
And Gausman, too. I’ll be really disappointed if Thor is the only notable SP we get.
The Angels needed at least three starters, so far one project rehab guy. They needed a lot of help in bullpen, They let their closer go and have a setup man on a one year deal. I think they’re worse than last year. Ohtani is watching and I doubt he resigns if this is all the Angels can do. And then maybe Mike asks to be released.
So based on the minimal difference in money the Blue Jays 100% went with Gausman over Ray because of the compensation pick. Absolutely foolish move when their goal should be to win now
@Ronk325. You don’t know that. Maybe Ray had no desire to stay in Toronto.
I doubt that’s the case. The Blue Jays helped him figure it out and they’re loaded with young talent. Traveling in and out of Canada might not be ideal but Toronto is a much better city than Seattle. I truly believe the Blue Jays were motivated by getting the compensation pick
Uh, no. Seattle is the better city.
Yah if you’re a member of antifa or a punk rock band maybe
Nice pickup Seattle. Thanks for keeping him from the Yanks/Sox. And thanks for the pick too 😉
The Yankees and Red Sox were never in on him. They won’t be on Stroman either.
If I ranked the free agent deals this would be my choice as Number One.
AL West going to be a fun division to watch.
Angels fans would disagree. The two best players in baseball, and still the laughingstock of all baseball.
So when is the last time the Ms have made the playoffs?
The last 19 seasons the Angels have won a World Series and six division titles. The Ms have not played a single playoff game.
If this was the contract for Ray, I would’ve gotten him over Gausman for my Jays. Hmmm.. Jays get the draft pick at least. Gausman better be the real deal!!! Or I’ll be angry
Careful what you wish for. Is Robbie Ray for real? We’ll see, but the past is a bit of a warning—especially at this price and years.
Toronto thinks Gausman and Ray are similar. Went with a non-QO guy and let a QO guy walk. They net a comp pick and save $5M.
Seattle makes a solid add. They didn’t have a big whiff guy and went and got one. Let’s see how Ray transitions in his first year.
That seems … surprisingly team friendly. Did no one offer more money or years than that? Weird. I guess the early opt out is what he wanted, and that is a big concession by the M’s. But still, this is the first deal this year that has struck me as low.
I have a hard time believing this would be the best deal available. Players must really be buying into Seattle’s future because it makes no sense that teams like the Yankees, Angels, or even the Giants wouldn’t offer me.
I didn’t know you had that much value.
The mariners are essentially the rays with the ability to spend 170 million. #1-2 farm, great young core, elite pitching program (look at flexen, and the bullpen). If you where a top pitcher would like to go there or to Anaheim to win 80 games with trout and ohtani? Anaheim is broken in the front office and no one wants to admit it.
Lol at the rays comparison
Look at the Mariners go.. AWESOMENESS…
What draft pick do the Jays get ??
Competitive Balance Round B I think.
So basically Jays get 2 picks after the 2nd round for Semien and Ray.. hmm.
That’s the way I understand it, yes.
Feel like Ray’s contract is lighter than I thought he’d get. Surprised Toronto didn’t resign him for that amount.
That’s awesome. Really good deal for mariners. Surprised Ray didn’t get more.
Pissed that Ray won’t be an Angel. Pissed that Ray will be in AL West. Pissed that Dipoto got the deal done.
And look who signed Max in New York. Our former employees are spanking us. Guess it was Arte all along.
The Yankees are not stupid enough to give Ray the $$ Cole and CC got huge deals… no one can play to the pressure of the Yankees. Especially not Robbie Ray. They offered Verlander 25 mil to come to the big time and he ran back to Houston. You need balls to play in the boogie down. Correa yes he is and should be a yankee.
With Gausman and Scherzer off the board, I thought Robbie Ray could have held out for more money than $115M, because the market really only has Stroman and a bunch of moderate options remaining.
If it helps them take down the Astros, I’m all in favor of it.
Blame Cashman?? You don’t think that cashman talks to agents?? No one has the balls to play in New York for the Yankees.. play for the second hand Mets if you want to be #2 In New York. You need to have thick skin and big balls to be a real Yankee
FA likely look at the Yankees and see that they are going to be a 4th place team in the ALE unless they spend 260-280m per, which they likely aren’t . Love the attempt at deflection though. ” They won’t sign with us because they are scared” lmao ( Scared of not competing for a WS title )
Very happy as a Mariners fan.
If I’m Steven Matz I just fired my agent……
Wow, that’s a great deal!!!!!
I guess the Jays thought Gausman + draft pick > Ray. I’m honestly skeptical about both guys replicating last year’s success so we’ll have to see how things play out.
Has Ray only pitched 3 good seasons?
Still lots of SP needy teams out there, including the Giants and Yankees and Angels and a few others (maybe the Dodgers). Only Stroman left of the serious “gets.” Oakland gonna have a field day when they start entertaining offers for their guys.
No reason to worry. The better teams will make trades for what they need and get more bang for their bucks. That’s the advantage of having a good farm system that develops players.
You keep beating this drum Cey
You’re not a rays fan you’re a Dodgers fan, they have a high payroll and some of the worst contracts in baseball.
Worst contracts in baseball? Can you give me some examples? The core is comprised of homegrown talent. and the team wins. Isn’t that how it’s supposed to be?
David price, Trevor Bauer, in total the Dodgers paid them 50 million.
How many teams carried 50 million in dead weight in one season?
You simultaneously talk about how healthy baseball is with all this money flying around but are also putting down all the teams who went out and spent it. Even though the Blue jays and Mariners have very good farm systems recently.
Too late!!!!
Love this signing more than what the Mets shelled out for Max and his “arm” fatigue when it counts!
Which would you rather have for the next 3 yrs. Max or both Ray+Gausman . Same price.
Solid pickup for Seattle. Great stuff, command was an issue until this past year. Caution is that he faded down the stretch.
I have a friend who has been claiming “baseball is in trouble” ever since I met him at Rutgers-Newark back in 1980. The size of these contracts reveals the opposite – that Major League Baseball is in the best shape in its history. These contracts also fly in the face of the notion that Rob Manfred is “ruining the sport.” If Manfred is so bad, why are the owners he works for spending money like never before?
Fans can shout “Manfred sucks” all they want, but the facts say otherwise. Eventually, Manfred’s legacy may be that of the best commissioner the game has ever seen. Who was the previous best commissioner? None other than Bud Selig, the much-maligned person Manfred replaced. The growth of the game’s revenues has been astronomical under these two guys and figures to continue.
Prediction: Major League Baseball will continue to grow in the 2020s through global marketing, just like the NBA did. The London Series offered a sneak peek. Soon, we’ll see similar series in various overseas cities. Baseball traditionalists will squawk. Meanwhile, owners and players will be cashing checks like never before. By the decade’s end, millions of new MLB fans worldwide will be wearing Soto, Tatis, Acuna, and Ohtani jerseys. No one will be saying Manfred sucks when that happens.
Agree – and Im a Scarlet Knight too. !
ZAIDI ARE YOU ASLEEP??????
A max effort guy with serious previous BB and HR issues and one great season under his belt? The minute he loses a MPH or two of his heater or, likely, hurts himself, he’s gonna be toast. Fastball slider… no fallback weapons.
Gausman is a better bet for the same contract…plus a pick
Ray is great until the 3rd time through the order. Not sure what Gausmans is like with that regard. I hope Ray does well in Seattle. As an organization you want players who play for your organization to be coveted and get paid if they move on.
Awesome! I’d put money on Seattle still in on either Stroman and\or Rodon! And they would still have a TON of money left for Bryant…and definitely don’t count them out of Seiya Suzuki after a Bryant signing!
Watch them sign both Stroman AND Rodon and then put Sheffield and Dunn on the trading block!
It the Angels signed Lorenzen. I’m sure the Ms are quaking in their boots.
I think that signing proves the Angels are all in this year.
Not worried about the M’s or Rangers. Astros are still the gold standard for the last 5 years. I don’t like Ray, Gausman or Stroman. Too much downside. They’re on the right path with the trade market and shoring up the pen from innings 6 to 8. IF they can add Castillo (without losing Adell or Marsh) and Iglesias to the other off season acquisitions they’ll be in great shape.
Castillo for Adams +
Iglesias 3/50
That gives more flexibility to extend Ohtani and not lock up long term sketchy assets. I thought Jon Gray was the only “miss” so far. 4/56 for him is a good #.
I am surprised at the AAV and the term, not to mention the city, not one bit of this makes any sense
Even with Gausman, I had a feeling Toronto was going to bring him back, and then trade for the infield help that they needed.
We’ll see where this goes for the Jays, but I would anticipate they still are four or five starter just in case Nate Pearson isn’t ready to go, they spent a lot of time talking about Pearson being a modified swingman for the season
Really surprised with the term,
If you had ‘a feeling’ after the Blue Jays signed Gausman, after Ray gave ‘Adios Toronto’ interviews on TV, that Ray was nonetheless still going to sign with Toronto, I think you’ve identified the source of your confusion
The people saying Ray has had one good year are using old standards in a new day. Ray is exactly what 95% of starting pitching is these days. The days of sub 2.5 era and 300 k’s is over. A “quality start”, by definition is a 4.50 era. That’s considered “quality”
4.50 is garbage. I could live with 3.86, which is what three runs over seven innings comes out to I believe.
And that’s what 3 runs over 7 inning in fact is.
Thats grading with the curve, since there is such a lack of starting pitching in today’s game… a 65 out of 100 is now an A.
And lucky for Ray, he just has to beat the people in his class not those from 50 years ago.
Let me get this straight– The Angels miss out on a totally affordable premium arm, and now we have to face him all through the year? They better land Stroman, and maybe Rodon as well. But this is ridiculous. They miss on Gausman, Ray and Scherzer?
Like I said to another Angels fan, we can offer them Touki as a consolation prize.
Perry better wave a magic wand on the trade market. The price of trade pitchers is going up and the Angels have very weak farm, so.,,, there’s always next year.
5/115 is right in the wheel house for what the Angels can afford. All reports indicated that Ray was their man. This one has me scratching my head.
Bruh…
First Adam Frazier, now Ray? Mariners are ****blocking the Sox big time. I hope Hahn has a plan, or this could be a bad sign.
I like it.
So take a look at this:
Seattle’s 2022 committed contracts with projected ARB salaries was $40M before the Frazier trade. So with Frazier AND Ray that puts Seattle 2022 Payroll currently at $70M with the top Farm System in MLB? WOW!!!
Our payroll prior to the Cano trade was almost hitting $180m
Seattle can easily add ALL of the following and still be under $150m and still have ALL Farm system in tack:
Stroman
Rodon
Bryant
Seiya Suzuki
Unbelievable!!!
Lots of reasons to be excited.
But Your math is not factoring in arbitration salaries from anyone. Still a great spot to be in but if you add the guys you listed you would not be under 150 next year or the year after. Not even close
Yes That is all the projected salary figures added in. It was reported on prior to the Frazier signing
MISSED IT BY THAT [ = ] MUCH !!
According to informed sources, The Marlins were in on Robbie Ray right up until he signed the deal to join the Mariners.. The Marlins made a “strong” offer, but not one that matched the Mariners’ financial commitment. The Marlins weren’t the only team to be outbid.
The Minnesota Twins had also been linked to Ray.
Great deal for the Mariners. As a Seattle fan, I’m stoked.
MetsMerized,ha!
Would have loved for him to stay, but Gausman makes it palatable
Mariners making all the right moves this off-season. A lot can happen in five years for a SP, but the window is now and the price is right. Would love to see them add one more solid hitter but otherwise they look pretty set for next year!
Wow, how do the Yankees not sign this guy? Nice signing by Dipoto.
Ray at 23m a year for 5 years is pretty reasonable
This contract will be the best one handed out all winter. Ray is a great bet, I was hoping he would go back to Detroit, but Seattle winds up with a true game changer. I think he’s the best pitcher in the AL and will be excellent for the duration of this deal. He adds 5-7 wins to Seattle every season.
“Ray is flying to Seattle to take his physical right now”
AND BOY, ARE HIS ARMS GETTING TIRED !!
Phillies should have topped this.
Terrible deal for the Mariners. Ray has had one really good year. And that really good year was based on losing 25 pounds of fat and gaining 25 pounds of muscle in one off-season. long-term this is not going to be pretty. this deal stinks for the Mariners I feel sorry for them.
He had a great year in 2017 has been a little up a down since then. His career numbers are pretty good. He is a strikeout machine.- 4 seasons with 200+ K’s and led all MLB last year. It’s only have 5 yr deal at a respectable AAV, especially for a Cy Young caliber player. Sure, last year was a career year for him with a WAR or 6.7 I think… If he can give Seattle somewhere in the neighborhood of 4.0 WAR annually that’s still a damn good deal. Oh, and there is an opt out after 3 years, which would bring the contract to 3yr/66 mil or so. This is highly regarded as a win-win for both clubs. Robbie Ray was probably the #2 SP in the FA Market and is only entering his age 30 season. Ray profiles pretty well in T-Mobile Park and should continue to be a very good top of the rotation pitcher for the Mariners.
His walk rate plummeted. Yes he’s likely to regress but changes in walks and strikeouts tend to stabilize quickly, he’s likely a better pitcher than he was despite the fact that he’s not likely to be as good as this year. And he will likely be a below average pitcher by the end. That’s kind of how these things work. If all it was was a change in HR or BABIP or hard contact I’d be more suspect. It could definitely go wrong but it’s an educated gamble based on more data than “he has one good year”. Also salary inflation is back based on this offseason.
Red Sox look foolish. That is a GREAT contract and good risk. If Ray has turned the corner he should have a great season in that park.
Angels moving to plan b, c , and d soon. What Scrub will they sign for $10,000,000 to a one year deal and say, “ we were in all the top FA pitchers”
When is the madness going to stop.
Lorenzen was plan D.
Most of these big deals will likely be going to guys who underperform. No shock if Ray and Gausman are just average or a little better moving forward. You are likely paying for past performance anywAys.
It’s fun when your team signs someone but 3-4 yrs from now, we will look at this and go what were these teams thinking while someone random guys because a multi time all star off a nothing contract.
All contracts are designed to have surplus value in the first half and have negative equity in the second half. So by year 2.5 he’s expected to not be worth his AAV, at least based on how most contracts like this. It could also go hideously wrong but there’s some chance he’s now a defecto and and it’s a steal.
Excellent get for the Mariners.
This was 50 million less than I expected.
Great deal for Mariners, jays fans should be confused. Angels, Yankees , and other fans should be upset
The AL west is going to be interesting. The Mariners could be really good, but so could the rest of the division. If the Mariners can add another solid SP and a CF, they will look really good to start the year. Reasonable chance the entire division is above .500 and could see all 5 teams in contention late in the season.
This is probably it for now, at least until after the lockout, in whatever vague future we have. If there is a lockout.
But I think the Mariners could do very well, whenever the next season will be.
They’re solid right now!
Justus Sheffield is about as likely to turn in a quality start as anyone on this comments thread.
Did not expect this. I’m not sure this makes the Mariners contenders this year though.
I think this is quietly going to be the steal of this free agency
Within two years, Jerry Dipsnot will trade him for a bag of magic beans. And say he never wanted him and was forced to sign him
Bbbiiitttteerrrrrrr
Typical Angels fan hahahaha. We love Dipoto in Seattle. Sorry he did you guys dirty. Your fan base will never forgive him. Pitiful.
I’m excited about the signing of Ray! A rotation of Ray, Gonzales, Flexen, Gilbert and ??? will be lots of fun. I’ll predict the ??? SP is acquired by trade from either Oakland or Cincinnati, and with Kirby and another one or two of their other youngsters (who aren’t traded) nearly ready for the majors, there are some fun times ahead in Seattle. People can hate on Dipoto all they want, but he has done a good job for Seattle over the last few years, finding the right coaches and players to build a strong foundation for a winning culture: a strong minor league system at the same time you have built a winning on-the-field product.
The Mariners are on the verge of big things! I’ve been a MLB fan for 55 years, and a hard-core M’s fan for the past 40+. This time things don’t look like business as usual… this is different. It’s positive, it’s aggressive, and the Mariners are getting ready to pleasantly surprise a lot of baseball fans. Get ready, MLB!
One thing has not been mentioned when it comes to the Blue Jays and Ray vs Gausman.
Pitching mechanics and injuries.
Gausman has some of the cleanest easy power I’ve ever seen. Versus Ray who looks like he’s going to blow his arm out every pitch. Plus, Ray throws a LOT of sliders which are known as elbow breakers.
The part B is that Robbie Ray is almost exclusively a 2-pitch pitcher. Which is bad because 1) AJ Burnett syndrome, if 1 pitch is not working the guy gets shelled, and 2) it’s easy for a hitter to figure out a pitcher if it’s only 1 of 2 pitches coming.
So, do you want to invest 5 years at $23M per in a probable injury risk, 2-pitch starting pitcher? Even if that guy is Robbie Ray? Your ace, that pitches like an ACE.
Or go with the arm with very good command & control, easy power, a great secondary pitch, great intangibles on a winning team, wants to be in Toronto, and has upside to grow (in his 3rd and 4th pitches, and his spin rate).
But the downside is: he may not “look like” a true #1.
To me, the choice is kind of obvious.
The draft pick and the slightly sweeter deal are just the gravy on top.
Gausman is a two-pitch pitcher as well and when that split-finger ain’t splitting he’s very hittable. The M’s very talented pitching coaches will work on Ray’s curveball so he’s got three pitches going at least. I think the Ray pick-up is huge.
Interesting how Walker got better in 2020 when he went to the Jays from the Mariners but you think the Mariners coaches will make Ray even better then he already did with the Jays.
lol, 1 year wonder!
You’re a fool dude. Robbie Ray has the most strikeouts all-time through their first 1,000 innings pitched.
career k/w is 2.85. not worth it!
Another hard throwing lefty, remember when……
Johnson…..not Moyer
I’m glad the Angels didn’t overpay for a pitcher who’s lights out in their free agent year
They prefer a 25mil deal on a dude that hasn’t pitched in 2 years. Come on bro. Grow up.