A new name represents a new era in Cleveland baseball, and the club will look to mark their inaugural season as the Guardians with a return to playoff contention.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Jose Ramirez, 3B: $12MM for 2022 (salary guaranteed after Guardians exercised club option; Guardians also have $13MM club option for 2023)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Austin Hedges – $3.8MM
- Amed Rosario – $5.0MM
- Franmil Reyes – $4.4MM
- Shane Bieber – $4.8MM
- Bradley Zimmer – $1.5MM
- Cal Quantrill – $2.8MM
- Josh Naylor – $1.2MM
- Non-tender candidates: Zimmer
Option Decisions
- Declined $7MM club option on C Roberto Perez, Perez received $450K buyout
Free Agents
- Perez, Bryan Shaw, Blake Parker, Nick Wittgren, Cam Hill, Wilson Ramos
After eight consecutive winning seasons, the Guardians finally dropped under the .500 mark with an 80-82 record in 2021. With the lineup still producing runs at an inconsistent rate, Cleveland couldn’t make up the difference thanks to some injury absences in their rotation. Simply getting Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac healthy and productive for all of 2022 will likely do more to boost the team’s chances than almost anything they could do on the transaction front, though the Guardians now face an interesting set of decisions this offseason.
Or, maybe, it just boils down to one over-arching decision — how much are the Guardians willing to spend? Jose Ramirez represents the lone guaranteed contract on the books, and the arbitration class projects to earn $23.5MM and even that total could be reduced by a non-tender or two. Between that group and the pre-arbitration players on the rosters, Roster Resource estimates roughly a $49.2MM payroll for the Guardians next season, which is well below the $124MM spent in 2019. A return to the (comparatively) big expenditures of 2017-18 may not happen until a new minority owner is found, though both team chairman/CEO Paul Dolan and president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti have said the Guardians will have a larger payroll to work with in 2022.
Even if spending rises to just around the $100MM mark, that gives Antonetti’s front office some real leverage in building around a strong core. Ramirez is one of the game’s best players, Franmil Reyes boasts tremendous power, Emmanuel Clase emerged as a strong closer, Amed Rosario and Myles Straw look like quality everyday regulars, and the rotation is one of baseball’s best when healthy. If anything, Cleveland’s rotation might even be deeper than usual — Cal Quantrill and Triston McKenzie each had some quality outings while filling in for the injured starters in 2021, so either or both could build on this experience to take another step forward as the fourth and fifth starters.
Cleveland usually doesn’t spend much on its rotation due to the team’s knack for developing homegrown arms, though in the wake of 2021’s injuries, investing on a low-cost veteran might not be a bad idea. Eli Morgan and Logan Allen are already on hand as more starting depth, but a Wade LeBlanc-esque swingman type could also work, as that pitcher could then also help out a bullpen that will need to cover some innings.
Bryan Shaw, Blake Parker, and Nick Wittgren are all headed for free agency, representing 183 1/3 frames of work out of last year’s pen. As with the starters, the Guardians aren’t prone to making any big outlays for relief pitching, so it’s probable to expect some minor league signings competing with the team’s in-house pitchers come Spring Training. It also isn’t out of the question that the Guardians could target a younger and more promising relief candidate as part of trade talks with other clubs, a la how they landed Clase from the Rangers as part of the 2019 Corey Kluber deal.
Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Mike Clevinger, and Carlos Carrasco have all been traded over the last few years, so it can’t be ruled out that the Guardians could look to deal another starter in exchange for a top-tier younger bat. However, the circumstances are a little different now, as while those past starters were all becoming increasingly expensive, Cleveland’s current rotation group is still pretty affordable. Bieber and Quantrill are the only ones who have even reached arbitration eligibility, and Bieber is projected for a $4.8MM salary in his first trip through the arb process. This is significantly below what Bieber would have earned if he’d been able to follow up his 2020 Cy Young Award-winning campaign with a similar season, so his injury-plagued year cost him both on the field and in the pocketbook.
In the wake of such a year, could Bieber perhaps be more open to a contract extension? The ace right-hander turned down the Guardians’ offers last spring, but there would seem to be room for a deal considering how the team has no official money committed for the 2023 season and beyond. If not Bieber, expect the Guardians to look into extensions for any of Civale, Plesac, Quantrill, or McKenzie, given how the organization has long prioritized locking up talent earlier in their careers.
Since Bieber is under control for three more years at arbitration-controlled prices, he isn’t the star whose future has drawn the most speculation. Ramirez is under team control for only two more seasons (2023 via another club option) and is already making a significant salary, even if $12MM is a bargain for the third baseman’s outstanding production. 2024 will be Ramirez’s age-31 season, so even if the Guardians are open to a splurge on what would easily be the biggest contract in franchise history, the question remains if they would take that plunge for Ramirez specifically, even if he isn’t showing any signs of decline.
Extensions talks with Ramirez have yet to yield any progress, and any number of teams are ready and willing to step up with huge trade offers if Cleveland did decide to move their superstar. Like with the starters, however, the timing doesn’t seem quite right for a Ramirez trade, since his contract isn’t prohibitive and the Guardians are planning to contend next year. Barring a ridiculous trade offer that was too good to ignore, the Guardians are more likely to deal Ramirez next winter, if they end up dealing him at all.
With this in mind, expect Ramirez to return as the linchpin of a Cleveland lineup that underwhelmed in 2021, and was no-hit on three (or, unofficially, four) separate occasions. Despite the lack of overall punch, some interesting pieces are already in place — Ramirez is set at third base, Reyes will mostly serve as the DH and play some corner outfield, Straw will be the everyday center fielder, Bobby Bradley is slated for at least a share of first base duties, and Rosario will play somewhere, provisionally at shortstop for now.
We’ll begin with the unsettled middle infield, as Rosario might end up as the regular shortstop, or be used in a super-utility role that would see him also get time in the outfield or as part of the crowded second base mix. Rosario’s future at shortstop may hinge on how quickly prospect Gabriel Arias is able to develop his bat to match his already-excellent defense, and Arias took a nice step forward by hitting .284/.348/.454 with 13 home runs over 483 plate appearances at Triple-A last season. If Arias still needs more seasoning, Andres Gimenez could also get more shortstop time if he hits as he did during his 2020 rookie season with the Mets, as opposed to his disappointing numbers with Cleveland last year.
Gimenez joins Owen Miller, Yu Chang, and Ernie Clement in the second base mix, with some type of platoon likely (Gimenez is a left-handed hitter, and the others are righty bats). Top prospect Tyler Freeman will make his Triple-A debut in 2022, so he is expected to factor into the big league roster sometime closer to the end of the season. There is enough volume at the position that a veteran offseason addition probably isn’t likely, since the Guardians will use Spring Training and the season itself to see what they have with this collection of players, with Freeman tentatively penciled in as their second baseman of the future.
While adding a regular middle infielder may not be feasible, adding a regular to the middle infield group could be more of a fit. Chris Taylor would be a nice addition to just about any team’s roster, but he might fit particularly well onto a Guardians team looking for stability in the middle infield and at both corner outfield slots. If Taylor is too expensive, a veteran utility type like Josh Harrison or Leury Garcia could provide some of the same versatility (if much less of a hitting ceiling) at a far lower price.
Since Cleveland’s biggest-ever free agent signing is still Edwin Encarnacion’s three-year, $60MM pact from the 2016-17 offseason, it remains to be seen if the Guardians are willing to spend to the level necessary to land a notable free agent even in the second tier of this year’s market. Looking at some potential outfielders who could be on the Guardians’ radar, Taylor (projected for four years and $64MM), Kyle Schwarber (four years/$70MM), and Seiya Suzuki (five years/$55MM) would all likely require contracts that might be out of the team’s comfort zone. Avisail Garcia, Mark Canha, or perhaps even Michael Conforto could be more viable options, though signing Conforto would require Cleveland to surrender a draft pick via the qualifying offer.
Again, the lack of future money on the books could make the Guardians more willing to stretch the budget to include a premium bat. The Encarnacion signing came about due to something of a perfect storm of circumstances — there wasn’t a ton of interest in Encarnacion’s market, and Cleveland felt the time was right for a big strike having just lost a heartbreaker of a World Series in 2016. Coming off a rare losing season, and with some financial flexibility, and with the wholly unique environment of debuting a new team name, Cleveland could again see the winter as a unique opportunity to land a big name.
Conversely, spending on multiple needs is a viable and maybe more realistic strategy than acquiring only one high-priced player. Landing two starting corner outfielders, for instance, would perhaps be the swiftest way of solving an outfield depth problem that has plagued Cleveland for years. Straw does represent one box checked, as the trade deadline acquisition offers on-base ability, speed, and a solid glove that should play well as the Guardians’ center fielder.
As for the other members of the 2021 outfield, it seems like the Guardians are trending towards more or less cleaning house. Daniel Johnson has already been designated for assignment, while Bradley Zimmer is a non-tender candidate and Oscar Mercado is also no guarantee for the Opening Day roster. Assuming at least one more full-time outfielder is acquired to join Straw in the everyday lineup, Cleveland can still potentially fill the rest of the outfield depth from within. Factors to consider include Rosario’s utility value, how much time Reyes might see outside of the DH spot, prospect Nolan Jones’ development as an outfielder, and Josh Naylor’s readiness in the wake of major ankle surgery.
The Guardians declined their club option on Roberto Perez, so the two sides may now be parting ways after Perez’s eight seasons in Cleveland. Austin Hedges represents a cheaper in-house option as a similar glove-first, light-hitting catcher, and while Perez’s $7MM price tag was too rich for the Guardians’ blood, a reunion at a lower salary could be possible. With Hedges and prospects Bo Naylor and Bryan Lavastida in the pipeline, Cleveland is likely to consider only shorter-term veterans like Perez for their needs behind the plate, unless the front office feels a more bold long-term answer is required. Catching depth isn’t exactly easy to find, but speculatively, teams like the Blue Jays (who are often linked to Cleveland on the rumor mill) or the Braves lineup as trade partners.
First base could also be a position of need, depending on how comfortable the Guardians feel about Bradley. In his first season of regular playing time, Bradley hit 16 homers but batted only .208/.294/.445 and struck out in 99 of his 279 plate appearances. To begin the season, Cleveland could let a platoon of Bradley and Chang or Miller handle first base duties, and then perhaps look for first base help during the year if an upgrade is required. If the club wants to move now, however, someone like Anthony Rizzo might fall within the Guardians’ price range in free agency, and the likes of Matt Olson, Luke Voit, or J.D. Davis could be available targets on the trade market.
Even considering the extra payroll space involved this winter, it’s probably safe to assume the Guardians will stick largely to the trade route rather than free agency, considering how Antonetti’s front office has generally found quite a bit of success in swinging trades over the years. Rival clubs will surely ask about Freeman, Arias, Jones, and other top minor leaguers in negotiations, and Cleveland will be hesitant about moving any of the names at the top of their board just because of how much emphasis the team puts on building from within. Since several of the Guardians’ most notable prospects will likely hit the majors within a year or two, it does give the team some flexibility in deciding who to keep or who to dangle as a trade chip, especially since most teams prioritize big league-ready young talent.
No shortage of options are available to the Guardians this winter, which is why any thoughts of dealing Ramirez or Bieber to spark a rebuild seem extremely premature. While the AL Central promises to be more competitive in 2022, the Guardians certainly must feel like winning the division crown is possible, and even having a healthy rotation last year would’ve gone a long way towards reducing the 13-game gap between Cleveland and the first-place White Sox. If you’re looking for a metaphor for the launch of the Guardians name, maybe 2021 was the bridge year necessary to get the team past the pandemic and back to some semblance of business as usual, since the Guardians are likely to be aggressive in getting back to winning baseball.
DarkSide830
yeah, Dolan is going to go all in and the team’s going to sign several huge FAs! $200 million payroll next year!
deweybelongsinthehall
First Guardian “splash”:. signing Clint Frazier…
Chipper Jones' illegitimate kid
Sure they changed the name of the team, but when will they acknowledge the stadium was built on a Indian Burial Ground?
GareBear
You see, this is funny and a much better comment if you want to talk about the name change. Well done sir.
Lefty_Orioles_Fan
First Off-season???
DarkSide830
you know what they mean…
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Guardians should stand pat, they have enough pieces to compete if team is healthy and other teams have a couple bad breaks. They can always dump salary mid season if they fall out of contention.
Lou Klimchock
This article is an excellent in-depth summary, Mark. Thank you.
hockeyjohn
I agree Lou. Excellent summary.
tstats
They do really do a good job
Samuel
Agree, but with one caveat…..
Cleveland doesn’t seed to “spark a rebuild”. They have been doing a “rebuild on the fly” – the exact words Francona used in interviews about 2 years ago.
This FO is very similar to those in Tampa and Milwaukee. They seem to surprise everyone other than their fans and those that follow them closely.
I agree with Mark (in comments he’s made elsewhere) that Cleveland can compete for the AL Central championship this year.
Bosox2013
Guardians of Traffic
TradeAcuna
The Indians should trade Biebs to the Braves.
FloridaMan1988
Nah give nothing to the racist Braves fans. FTheChop.
Joe says...
Grand Rapids Rustlers
Cleveland Lake Shores
Cleveland Bluebirds
Cleveland Bronchos
Cleveland Naps
Cleveland Indians
Cleveland Guardians
User 4245925809
Nice try Joe. Maybe get JIm Croce’s 70’s era song “Roller derby queen” and play it for the fans to get them ready.. For something.
Gwynning's Anal Lover
Wait till they figure out that Cleveland is derogatory because of its use in Family Guy.
Bart Harley Jarvis
Who’s they?
bobtillman
Guardians just being themselves. They haven’t done anything extreme; they don’t have to. With their pitching, and pretty smart guys upstairs and in the dugout, they’re already competitive. I know, so are the White Sox; but the Twins, Royals and Tigers MIGHT be. All three are TBD, for all the press releases.
They could be interesting and likely will step outside the box for a few of their moves; I mean, who thought Straw was going to develop the way he did. Add in a couple of bats, maybe a reliever or two, and they’re right in it. Add a third bat and another starter, and they’re the favorite.
Astros Hot Takes
I think Straw could well have a Brett Butler career
Tacoshells
Cleveland has a lot of nice players they have gathered via trade. Their rotation seems pretty set too. An impact hitter could put them over the edge.
Spare Tire Dixon
Trade with Cincy for Gray or Castillo
Sign Mark Canha and/or Joc Pederson.
Jose Ramirez is too awesome not to build around, even if it’s the less expensive FAs
Dustyslambchops23
They only got 2 more years of him.
Dustyslambchops23
Whatever they are called I don’t care. They finished 13 games back of the division and 12 games back of the WC, At this point they are probably the third best team in the division and no where close to a wild card team.
They can either fake it and add some vets, risky short term FAs and see if they can catch lightning in a bottle, or they can start their rebuild now, either way within 1-2 years it’s going to happen.
gbs42
The Giants went 29-31 in 2020. Change can happen quickly.
brushbackmlb
Agreed big time! I’m not a Cleveland hater, but it’s gotta be pointed out that they weren’t just 13 games back of the White Sox…. they were 13 games back of a White Sox team that was decimated by injuries most of the year. If the Sox are healthy, they could be a near 100-win team (if the unbalanced schedule continues in 2022).
Ronk325
Unless the people running the show in Cleveland are Taco Bell enthusiasts, I don’t see them making much of a splash this offseason
hockeyjohn
Cleveland just protected 11 players from their outstanding farm system to the 40 man roster. With the prospects nearing, strong, controllable starting pitching and closer, there is no reason to start a rebuild. Look for Cleveland to trade from their prospect depth to add to their 2022 team.
Dustyslambchops23
They have a middle of the pack farm system
hockeyjohn
According to Fangraphs, Cleveland has the #5 farm system. That is not middle of the pack.
Dustyslambchops23
Hmm never used fangraphs for that, the rankings I’ve seen are in the 12-14 range.
They also have no top 50 prospects and only 2 years left with one of the best trade chips in the league who they can’t afford to re sign. Maybe rebuild is the wrong word, but unless they drastically improve through a bunch of trades they aren’t likely to compete in the next 2 years
lucas0622
No too 50 prospects but also 6 in the top 100- you don’t have to be a top 50, hell even a top 100 prospect to be consider good
Dustyslambchops23
I didn’t say that, but also that doesn’t change where the guardians are vs competition.
whosehighpitch
Trade Bieber and a top corner infield prospect for Rhys Hoskins and Aaron Nola. DD looks like a genius for getting rid of Hoskins and getting a frontline arm for a declining frontline arm
DarkSide830
what is your goal with shoehorning Hoskins into everything?
tstats
Moreno and Teo for JRam and a reliever
In nurse follars
Betting the big sign for 2022 is Andrew McCutchen. They need at least one veteran over 30 in the clubhouse. There will be a trade for another outfielder or a catcher (Kelly?) because they need to clear three more spots in the 40 man and ate carrying too many middle infielders. Only if a FA drops to them will they sign one. One more relief arm (Shaw). So Shaw, McCutchen, a catcher, another outfielder is three or spots that need to be opened up through DFA or trade.
ClevelandSpidersFromMars
I think you’re pretty much correct. Past behavior suggests that sometime in Jan/Feb they will sign a vet or two whose price has dropped into their range. Then they will wait until July. If the season is going poorly they will sell off a couple then. If the season is going well they will add at the deadline, when they will only have additional salary for the second half. Like waiting for the annual half-price sale.
Waz1
The half price sale mid-season isn’t half price. We have to give up prospects and I like the kids we now have.
dkcsmc1991
If find it more than a long shot that Rizzo would be on their radar. I like him but if they spend that kind of money, it should be on an outfielder.
solaris602
Couldn’t agree more. The screaming need for the past several winters is a corner OF who can produce at the plate. If that’s Mark Cahna, I’m good with that. I just hope the FO doesn’t fool themselves into believing Zimmer is any kind of solution. He had some moments last year, and he’s a passable 4th or 5th OF, but not an everyday player. I’m also not sold on Yu Chang as a platoon piece at 1B. If you’re gonna spend, get a solid RH 1B/OF type.
In nurse follars
Betting the big sign for 2022 is Andrew McCutchen. They need at least one veteran over 30 in the clubhouse. There will be a trade for another outfielder or a catcher (Kelly?) because they need to clear three more spots on the 40 man and are carrying too many middle infielders. Only if a FA drops to them will they sign one. One more relief arm (Shaw). So Shaw, McCutchen, a catcher, another outfielder is three or four spots that need to be opened up through DFA or trade.
Rsox
A new name doesn’t change the penny pinching owner
CATS44
The Guardians have seventeen MIFs either on the 26 man roster, the 40 man roster, or currently R5 eligible, that are rated 40 FV or better. They have three more that will be Rule 5 eligible next year.
The math is easy. They all won’t be in the Cleveland org by Spring Training. They dont need to spend a ton of money, because they have something that is worth just as much….prospect capital.
METribeFan
This is one of the best analysis of the Guardians I have read, especially on this site. A refreshing break from the Dolanz r cheap / trade Jose to my team for a bag of balls you usually see.
Sign Cahna, Suzuki and trade for Olson(although I’m skeptical he is actually available). Bring back R Perez for cheaper. You’re at about $90mil. A few NRI relievers. That’s a contending team. If $90 is too much for Dolan, drop either Cahna or Suzuki to get to $78 and see what you have in Kwan/Palacios or see if Valaika can work some magic on Mercado/Zimmer/Naylor (when he returns). If not, trade at the deadline for a rental OF.
junkyard
Looking forward to the Guardians and Pirates meeting up in the World Series in 2121!
GarryHarris
Cause CLE is all about the “big splash”.
Magnet Salesman
If they want to make a big splash, they should change their name. It’s really time to retire the Guardians name. So many people are upset. The logo is offensive. Enough is enough.
dkcsmc1991
You’re a magnet salesman? What pulled you into that career?
Col_chestbridge
They really need to deal some of their middle infield depth. If you think Freeman takes over 2B and eventually Rocchio takes over SS, then you should move or trade Tena, Arias, Rosario and Gimenez (also Clement, Miller, and Chang). Maybe you do with a platoon of Arias/Gimenez until Rocchio is ready (2023?), but they’re already running into an issue of just getting all these prospects at bats.
Palacios seems to have more or less permanently moved to the OF. Which is good. Rosario should probably be transitioned into a super utility role or traded. Tena should probably be traded because he should get up to AA but he probably will either repeat High A or have to get less opportunity at AA (where Rocchio is). Hell, Fermin is a legitimately interesting prospect who might get taken in the rule V but he’s almost an afterthought.
DodgerOK
The only splash they will make is throwing their WS chances in the lake.
Tom the ray fan
5/55 Seiya Suzuki u heard it here first
Waz1
They will (hopefully) go for it in 2023 when the kids are ready. We’re nearing the end of the rebuild/reload but not there yet.
Spare Tire Dixon
Ohio’s own Kyle Schwarber for DH/OF?