The Brewers’ fourth consecutive postseason appearance ended in more October heartbreak, as the Braves eliminated Milwaukee in four games in the NLDS. As the Brewers look to contend again next season, some tough financial decisions may have to be made depending on how far ownership is willing to stretch the payroll.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Christian Yelich, OF: $188.5MM through 2028 (includes $6.5MM buyout of $20MM mutual option for 2029)
- Lorenzo Cain, OF: $18MM through 2022
- Jackie Bradley Jr., OF: $17.5MM in 2022 (includes $8MM buyout of $12MM mutual option for 2023 — Bradley can opt out of $9.5MM salary for 2022, and receives $6.5MM buyout in the event of an opt-out)
- Freddy Peralta, SP: $12.75MM through 2024 (includes $1.5MM buyout of $8MM club option for 2025; Brewers also hold $8MM club option for 2026 with no buyout)
- Kolten Wong, 2B: $10MM in 2022 (includes $2MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2023)
- Josh Lindblom, RP: $2.75MM in 2022 (Brewers outrighted Lindblom off 40-man roster in May)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Jace Peterson – $1.3MM
- Omar Narvaez – $4.1MM
- Brent Suter – $2.3MM
- Luke Maile – $1.0MM
- Josh Hader – $10.0MM
- Brandon Woodruff – $7.1MM
- Daniel Vogelbach – $2.0MM
- Willy Adames – $4.0MM
- Corbin Burnes – $4.0MM
- Eric Lauer – $2.7MM
- Jandel Gustave – $800K
- Adrian Houser – $2.3MM
- Rowdy Tellez – $1.9MM
- Luis Urias – $2.4MM
- Non-tender candidates: Maile, Gustave, Vogelbach, Peterson
Option Decisions
- Avisail Garcia, OF: $12MM mutual option for 2022 ($2MM buyout)
Free Agents
- Eduardo Escobar, Brett Anderson, Brad Boxberger, Manny Pina, Hunter Strickland, Daniel Norris, Colin Rea, John Axford
Much of the Brewers’ buzz early in the offseason has focused on their executives being targeted by the Mets, though New York’s inquiries ended up being much ado about nothing. The Brewers again denied the Mets permission to speak with president of baseball operations David Stearns, and assistant GM Matt Arnold also removed his name from consideration and ended up with a contract extension to remain in Milwaukee. This situation is worth monitoring for the future, considering that Stearns’ contract may or may not be up after the 2022 season, depending on a possible vesting option that could extend the Brewers’ control over the PBO through 2023. With the Mets’ interest looming, there is sure to be plenty of attention paid to Stearns’ status with the Brew Crew, though one would expect owner Mark Attanasio to again look into extending his top baseball exec.
For now, Stearns’ focus is on figuring out how to get Milwaukee to take the next step and reach a World Series. Offense was a problem for the Brewers even as they had a fairly comfortable run to the NL Central title, and the issue came to a head when the Brewers scored only six runs in their four games with Atlanta. A change has already been made at hitting coach, but some lineup reinforcements are also a must.
Looking at the more settled positions, Willy Adames, Kolten Wong, and breakout player Luis Urias all hit well in 2021 and have three of the infield spots covered. All-Star catcher Omar Narvaez slumped badly in the second half but still finished with roughly league-average offense (99 OPS+ and wRC+) for the season, which represents a bounce-back from a brutal 2020 campaign.
Manny Pina hit well enough to make up for some of Narvaez’s late struggles, though Pina is now set for free agency after six years as a part-time starter and backup in Milwaukee. There is enough need for catching around the league that another team could offer Pina a more regular job, though the 34-year-old could reunite with the Brewers on a new contract if Pina is comfortable in his current role. If Pina doesn’t re-sign, the Crew will be on the hunt for a new backup catcher, preferably a right-handed hitter considering Narvaez’s lack of production against southpaws. Prospect Mario Feliciano is also on hand, and Luke Maile could return if tendered a contract.
Eduardo Escobar is another free agent, and is less likely to return considering that Wong and Urias are slated for everyday work at second and third base. This is another area where the Brewers will be looking for backup options, likely a utility type given the front office’s penchant for versatile players. Retaining Jace Peterson could help in that regard, and the Brewers could pair Peterson with a right-handed hitter to provide additional coverage on the bench.
Rowdy Tellez was streaky and spent some time on the injured list, but the slugger hit well after being acquired from the Blue Jays in July, and Tellez seems to be penciled in for at least a share of the first base job. This leaves Daniel Vogelbach as a possible non-tender candidate, as even if the National League has a DH position available in 2022, having both Tellez and Vogelbach as left-handed hitting first base-only players seems like a redundancy. Tellez is over two years younger than Vogelbach, has an extra year of team control and had better numbers in 2020-21, though Vogelbach did miss a good chunk of last season due to injury. All things considered, it would seem like the Brewers would favor Tellez over Vogelbach, though with only a $2MM projected salary for Vogelbach, it wouldn’t break the bank to keep him around.
A right-handed complement seems like a necessary add for the first base/DH mix, though Milwaukee is probably still hopeful that Keston Hiura can fill that role from within. Hiura is only 25 years old and has just 791 MLB plate appearances to his name, and while the Brewers aren’t likely to give up on the former top prospect, adding a more proven veteran seems logical given how badly Hiura has struggled over the last two seasons. Ideally, the Brewers could find a versatile player who can hit from the right side and fill in at several infield spots (i.e. Josh Harrison, Asdrubal Cabrera, Matt Duffy). If the team looked to just first base-only types, Milwaukee could be a hypothetical landing spot for Albert Pujols, as odd as it would be to see Pujols on an NL Central team besides the Cardinals.
The outfield is far less set than the infield, even if three outfield starters are technically already in place. Jackie Bradley Jr. is coming off a rough year at the plate and is sure to exercise his $9.5MM player option for 2022 rather than test free agency. Lorenzo Cain will return for the final year of his contract, and Christian Yelich’s contract extension will now officially begin, as 2022 is the first season of the seven years and $188.5MM in new money guaranteed under the terms of his deal.
Yelich is the biggest question, as in the two seasons since inking that extension, he’s gone from perennial MVP candidate to only slightly more than a league-average bat — his .234/.360/.392 slash line over 722 PA in 2020-21 translates to a 103 OPS+ and 105 wRC+. Yelich is still making plenty of hard contact but his power numbers have dwindled, his strikeout rate has risen sharply, and opposing teams have been using the shift much more frequently against him, which has sapped his offensive production.
Cain is another player whose bat has gone south, hitting only .260/.328/.381 in 930 PA since the start of the 2019 season. Cain opted out for much of the 2020 campaign and sandwiched that lost year between two injury-plagued seasons, so the Brewers simply can’t be sure of what to expect from Cain as he enters his age-36 season. The same goes for Bradley, who was healthy last year but his offense absolutely cratered in his first year in Milwaukee.
Considering Yelich, Cain, and Bradley are the three highest-paid players on Milwaukee’s payroll, this certainly isn’t a welcome situation for a team with a fairly limited mid-market budget. The Brew Crew has no recourse but to count on a rebound from Yelich given their long-term commitment, and since Cain and Bradley are still providing superb defense, the Brewers could just go with a Cain/Bradley platoon in center field and give the promising Tyrone Taylor a clear shot at everyday at-bats in right field.
Avisail Garcia was far and away the best hitter in Milwaukee’s 2021 outfield, but he amassed just enough plate appearances to trigger a vesting option in his contract, turning the Brewers’ $12MM club option for 2022 into a mutual option. It can be reasonably assumed that the team would still want to retain Garcia at that price, though since mutual options are rarely agreed upon by both sides, it seems likely that Garcia will decline his end of the deal and test the free agent market in search of a longer-term commitment.
This leaves a big hole in the Brewers’ lineup, though some scenarios exist where Garcia is back in Milwaukee next year. Assuming he opts for free agency, the Brewers could then issue a qualifying offer — Garcia might be more open to a one-year deal for an $18.4MM payday than for $12MM. If Garcia declined the QO, the Brewers could at least recoup a compensatory draft pick if he signed elsewhere. If Garcia accepted the QO, that puts another hefty salary on the Brewers’ books, but the team could pivot by trying to see what they could get for Cain or Bradley on the trade market.
Cain or Bradley alone would be tough sells as trade chips, unless the Brewers were to take on another team’s unpalatable contract…or if the Brewers paired one of those outfielders with a more sought-after trade asset. You guessed it, it’s time for another offseason of Josh Hader trade speculation, and packaging the All-Star closer as part of a larger deal would be a bold way for the Crew to both clear some salary space and bring some young talent into the pipeline.
Hader delivered another excellent season, and his salary is now set to jump from $6.675MM to a projected $10MM in his third of four arbitration-eligible years. That is still quite a reasonable sum for arguably the best reliever in baseball, yet it does represent a big portion of Milwaukee’s payroll, so the time may finally be right for the Brewers to pull the trigger on a Hader deal.
It doesn’t seem likely that the Crew would spend much to replace Hader, as Devin Williams is already the heir apparent at closer and Brent Suter had a nice year as a setup man. The Brewers have consistently been able to score with inexpensive bullpen additions, so while Brad Boxberger and Hunter Strickland are set for free agency, the club will probably look to fill those gaps and the potential loss of Hader with other lower-level additions.
The bullpen is also supported by one of the sport’s best rotations. Corbin Burnes will receive Cy Young Award consideration, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta weren’t too far behind, and Eric Lauer, Adrian Houser, and Brett Anderson all provided quality work at the back end. Anderson is a free agent, so Milwaukee could give youngster Aaron Ashby a longer look as a starter, or bring in another low-cost veteran hurler if Anderson himself isn’t brought back.
Hader is the priciest member of a large Milwaukee arbitration class that projects to top the $40MM threshold, even after subtracting a few non-tender candidates. Between the arb-eligibles, the players on guaranteed contracts, and the pre-arbitration players, Roster Resource calculates around $112.4MM on the Brewers’ books for 2022. This already represents the larger Brewers payroll since Attanasio bought the team in 2005, though in 2019 (the last pre-pandemic season), the Brew Crew’s payroll surged to over $132MM by the end of the year.
With 2022 promising to be a more normal year revenue-wise, could ownership green-light another spending bump? Returning to even 2019’s spending levels would give Stearns some flexibility in making offseason moves, and perhaps allow a decision on Hader’s future to be held off until next winter. In fact, all those rising arbitration costs for key pitchers could lead to more tough decisions as early as the 2022-23 offseason, so an argument can be made that this roster should be given one last chance to win a championship before the Brewers have to start thinking about parting ways with other core pieces.
This doesn’t necessarily mean that we’ll see another blockbuster move like the Cain signing or Yelich’s extension. The Brewers have enough talent in place that just a return to form from Yelich in 2022 might be all the club needs to make more noise in the playoffs. With no guarantee of that scenario, however, expect the team to add at least one big bat to guard against another October power outage.
What we know about how Stearn’s Brewers operate:
o They stress defense and finding players that do both sides of the ball.
o They wait till late in the FA sweepstakes to find gems in the bargain basement.
o They’re willing to start the season with holes on the team. See what they have the first 6-8 weeks and begin to make moves.
“stress defense”? They typically have been one of the lower defensive teams. Urias is a butcher with the glove. My hope is he can improve his fielding getting steady work at one position.
Milwaukee was 3rd in defense this year. They have finished in top 10 the last four years. Urias started bad but last two months were very different.
Actually they were 8th. But don’t let that stop your roll.
Depends what website you go by, different sites (MLB.com, Fangraphs, Baseball Reference) use different stats and different things to calculate ratings, which can differ.
Uh-Huh.
Let’s see……
They brought in Willy Adames to move Urias off of SS and to 3B. Urias was awful at SS and 2B – he can play 3B.
They brought in Kolten Wong – the best defensive 2B in MLB – and moved Keston Hiura to 1B……which as the article notes may or may not work out.
Cain is a quality ML CF – which are currently in short supply – but he’s older and gets hurt. So they overpaid Bradley, Jr. to act as both insurance for Cain, split time with him, and play some corner OF – knowing full well that he couldn’t hit.
Catcher Omar Narvaez calls a great game, is above average defensively, and handles that pitching staff – and the Brewers are built around pitching.
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The corner defense is adequate. Standard baseball theory is to have defense up the middle and primarily get offense from the corners. Any hitting you get from up the middle is a bonus, any defense you get from the corners is a bonus.
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IMO the Brewers are one of the smartest 5-6 FO’s in MLB. They field a contending team on a low budget. Going into the 2021 season it was known that some of the juice was being taken out of the ball. That meant that more batted balls would be staying in the park, therefore defense would become more important. I don’t believe it was a coincidence that the Brewers made moves in the 2029-21 offseason and early in the season to buttress their defense.
I have idea what their FO approach will be during this offseason and how they’ll adjust the roster during the 2022 season. MLB play has always been a never-ending series of adjustments – pitchers / batters / defensive positioning. The Brewers (and others) have taken that a step further by adjusting their style of play depending on environmental concerns such the rabbit in the baseball (or not) and the constant rule changes.
Nice job Samuel with the rundown on the Brewers. Amazingly good, especially coming from a likely non-rabid “fan” of the team. Only disagreement I have with anything you said was Urias being bad at 2B. That’s actually his best position, but of course team has Wong.
I think it’s funny how depending on who is talking, Omar Narvaez is either an amazing catcher or on the verge of a DFA. Either way, the dude can hit.
“Low Budget’? They were 13th out of 30 in payroll. Yes contending except the 2020 when they backed into the playoffs under .500 in short season.
Been a rabid fan since 1970 when I saw Tommy Harper hit a double into the left field corner against the White Sox in the bottom of the ninth. I’m tired of mediocre and Brewers fans accepting it because of the “low payroll” or “small market ” nonsense.
It’s not “nonsense”, it’s reality. Baseball’s smallest market can’t generate the revenue they need to complete payroll-wise with the behemoth’s. And the revenue gap is widening every year. Some day — some day — some day — another Bud Selig type owner (step up even more than you already have Mark A) will galvanize enough owners to save the game of baseball through more revenue sharing among teams.
When one team receives $400M more in revenue than another EACH & EVERY YEAR, how can there be competitive balance of any form. Can’t have KC be the last SM team to win the WS of the next 100 years.
You know there is revenue sharing, right? And that small market teams receive over 100 million dollars each year? No team should be crying poor and spending less than 150 million for payroll.
The Brewers controlled pitching makes them a WS contender as is. A full season of Adames, further development from Urias, a slight rebound from Yelich and a middle of the order bat addition and this team with average health is a powerhouse.
Add Aaron Ashby to Burnes-Woodruff-Peralta-Houser & Lauer and that’s the best 6 deep starting rotation in the game. All in their pitching prime. Add in Williams & Hader locking down the 8th & 9th innings and another top 5 defense and this team wins 95+ games with an average offense. If Stearns is able to add more than the MOTO bat I talked about earlier and this is the best team in baseball in 2022.
Their pick up of Willy Adames was spot on. They should have a great SS for the next few years
It was a great buy low move by Stearns and team. Knowing the Rays wanted to call up the kid meant Adames was a possible trade target, especially at that time when he wasn’t producing offensively.
Stearns has done a good job at finding bats but for whatever the reason they never perform in October. Bradley was an absolute disaster though
Stearns typically finds the same type of hitter. Big swinger that typically strikes out 1/3 of ABs. Stearns has problems putting together a complete offense.
God I hope they keep hader long term. I know they could get a kings ransom for him, but I’d love to see him get a 4-5 year extension and stay past 2023.
The King’s ransom would likelier be spent by opposing teams’ on acquiring Woodruff or Burnes.
Dominant BP arms look great down the stretch and in the playoffs, but they will always command less because of their reduced IP value.
Granted, high leverage IPs are higher stress innings, but they’re not as valuable as 6 IP of shutout innings from a starter.
Lol neither of them are free agents until 2025. They’re not going anywhere.
Also teams ALWAYS overvalue closing pitching. Look what the cubs got for Kimbrell in recent memory and Hader is younger/better than him. No, they’ll get quite a lot if they make him available.
Now is the time to trade him. As a non practicing doctor I suggest trading him before arm problems.
Hat tip to the Braves guys.
You are as classy a crew on the board as there is. Enjoy it. Your team & city absolutely deserve the win. Happy for you guys, man.
Couldn’t agree with you more Ducky
Proud to be a Braves fan
Did you hear the Braves crowd boo Manfred? Too funny. He sure got away from that podium in a hurry – how ironic
What an ignorant statement.
Which part is ignorant? I agree with the previous comments. Kudos to their team. But a it seems many of their fans are few chromosomes short (or extra?) of 23 pairs.
@Cardsfanatik Embracing an a gesture/nickname that seems to at the very least embrace genocide and and mmm my the worst glorify it seems to exemplify the ignorance of the uneducated American.
Embrace genocide? Get real.
Man.
& all I was doing was congratulating you guys & acknowledging your general decency. & look what happened. That’s enough to dull even this little ray of sunshine.
Zero chance JBJ opts out after the terrible season he had. The Brewers need to figure out 3B and if Rowdy Tellez is the First Baseman moving forward.
Someone needs to convince JBJ another team will give him more regular AB’s even though he can’t hit. I thought maybe they’d have left him off the NLDS roster, which would have encouraged him to opt out.
Garcia is tricky too. Can’t see them offering a QO knowing his track record, injury concerns, and the deals with Cain and Yelich. I think Garcia is the odd man out, and Taylor and JBJ end up platooning in RF.
And Urias looks like the 3B going forward, unless Stearns pulls another rabbit out of the hat.
Yelich hasn’t been the same past two years . Maybe try to trade him see what’s offered ? I don’t they would trade him but just to see what’s offered
Mike Fiers’ whistle-blowing really messed with Yelich’s ability to hit at an MVP level 🙁
Who’s going to trade for that contract, after 2 mediocre seasons, whatever knee-related issue (physical or mental) he’s still dealing with, and the back problems that apparently were there long before the new contract was signed?
My guess is they’d have to eat a large chunk of it, and still not get a great haul in terms of bodies.
I’m not worried about Yelich, at least not yet. He will produce again if healthy. But JBJ and Cain are a problem for the Brewers that won’t be easily resolved.
The easiest thing to do, though it would be debated pointlessly, is to DFA one or the other. JBJ makes the most sense to me, if for no other reason than everyone loves Cain from Mark A on down.
As for Yelich, I’m extremely worried. I need a really convincing explanation why he didn’t even try in the final at bat against Atlanta before I’ll believe he’s going to turn it around physically or mentally.
Oh yeah, forgot that John Axford came back for one game
If Atlanta doesn’t re-sign him, Jorge Soler would look great in a Brewers uniform!
They already have a full over priced outfield. Do not need another career .230 hitter.
Except Soler didn’t disappear in October.
Odd is not how I would describe Pujols “landing” in Milwaukee. How about gross, disgusting, horrible….
I threw up when I read that idea.
Eddie Rosario would be a great addition to the Brewers. Maybe they should take a look at Mark Canha as well.
Yelich’s broken knee (2019) and issues with his back have caused much of his offensive slide. Hopefully he can get healthy, stay healthy and return to something closer to the 2018-19 version of Yelich. Brewers need that Yelich with their dominant pitching to go deep in playoffs. They are challenged by their bottom third payroll and weak farm system.
Stearns has some borderline bad contracts that need to expire. My uneducated guess is the 2022 season will look much the same as 2021. Stearns has never done well putting a good complete offense together.
Im surprised by what MIL will do in the off season. One year I thought they needed OF help so they acquired Mike Moustakes and used him at 2B. Last year I thought they needed to upgrade offense at a corner IF so they acquired Jackie Bradley Jr. I think I’ll just watch.
I don’t think MKE will add much with the payroll already so high. I think 2022 team is pretty much the same and then in 2023 when some of the big contracts expire we will see what this teams does. Even more so with the chance that Stearns might leave and there will be someone new making the calls.
Milwaukee is one, perhaps two position players away from being dominant. Their farm system has a scant few gems. With their current ML lineup, Mr. Stearns is advised to either make a huge over pay for the player that completes the team.. or repeat the 2021 season to the dismay of the fan base..
It’s up to the leadership of the Brewers to make their path known in the next 12 days to 12 weeks… We’ll see.
He has already over paid for Cain and Bradley. Stearns is not good at assembling anything more than a big swing roller coaster offense.
JBJr was a mistake.. give him his GG and send him down the road..
Even with an addition or two..the biggest improvement will come from guys already on the team showing up.. and stepping up.. Christian Yelich is theee number 1 candidate to step up.. Dev Williams.. will be right behind him.. Is it
possible to have dugout walls padded?..
Ynoa agrees with the wall padding idea
Obviously they have hopes that Yelich will be “that guy” again. If he at least gets back to a .300-25-100 kind of guy with roughly .300/.400/.500 slash line they will be relieved. They don’t need him to be a 40-homer guy, but he’s gotta be a middle of the order bat.
JBJ. He can’t hit. Can we finally agree on this matter? All the koolaid drinking Sox fans must slowly be coming around on this idea, right?
That JBJ contract is messed up.
As someone from New England, nobody thought of him as a good hitter. They just loved him for his defense and his playoff performance in 2018
I was pretty surprised they got hosed on that JBJ contract. Not the guy you give a multi-year deal to.
Yelich starting to look more and more overpaid
Hope is not a strategy (“we hope Yelich finds his power again”) and the CF combo is superb defensively but weak at the plate. Another run producer is critical.
Manfred deserves to be booed after taking away the all star game from Atlanta Enough of the politically correct bs
It was strictly a business decision, not a political one. Don’t give Manfred or MLB credit for making a political statement. They only care about the money they could lose and the negative press they would get.
$18.4M seems too much for Garcia. At least for a small to mid-market team. Which means the JBJ contract is awful.
As much as I’d like to think the Brewers will have more money to spend after 2022 plays out with Cain and JBJ off the books, that probably won’t be the case. The list of players entering arbitration after 2022: Urias, Williams, Brosseau, Hiura. Add this to the list of guys who should be getting even more expensive in arb: Woodruff, Burnes, Hader, Lauer, Peralta, Tellez, Adames, Suter. Yes, the team will be relieved of the $26.5MM from JBJ and cain, but arb raises alone will eat up most that, especially if some of the above guys [continue to] improve (thinking mostly of Hiura and Lauer here).
If they’re going to sign an impact free agent, it will have to come from Mark A deciding that he believes in the team enough to increase payroll overall. If he decides he wants to do that, he might as well do it this offseason, which looks like a much better agent class that what 2022-23 is looking like right now.