After scoring big in last year’s free agent market, the Blue Jays have some major holes to fill as they look to take the next step forward for a playoff berth.
Guaranteed Contracts
- George Springer, OF: $118MM through 2026
- Hyun Jin Ryu, SP: $40MM through 2023
- Randal Grichuk, OF: $18.66MM through 2023
- Lourdes Gurriel Jr., OF: $9.9MM through 2023
Arbitration-Eligible Players (salary projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Ross Stripling – $4.4MM
- Jose Berrios – $10.9MM
- Teoscar Hernandez – $10.0MM
- Adam Cimber – $1.5MM
- Trevor Richards – $1.1MM
- Ryan Borucki – $800K
- Danny Jansen – $1.5MM
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. – $7.9MM
- Tim Mayza – $1.2MM
- Trent Thornton – $900K
- Cavan Biggio – $1.7MM
- Non-tender candidates: Thornton
Option Decisions
- None
Free Agents
- Marcus Semien, Robbie Ray, Steven Matz, Corey Dickerson, Joakim Soria, Jarrod Dyson, David Phelps, Rafael Dolis, Kirby Yates
Despite winning 91 games, the Blue Jays still finished fourth in the stacked AL East, as the Red Sox and Yankees each won 92 games and earned wild card berths. While so many things went right for the club in 2021, falling just a game shy of the playoffs leads to a thousand “if only…” scenarios. Since the division doesn’t figure to get any easier next year, the Blue Jays are now challenged to not only get back to that 91-win threshold, but likely to bank a few more victories and break through to the postseason.
Fortunately for Toronto fans, the Jays already started preparing for 2022 even while in the midst of last year’s pennant race. Acquiring Jose Berrios, Adam Cimber, and Trevor Richards not only helped the Blue Jays bolster their in-season pitching needs, but all three hurlers came with extra years of control (Berrios through 2022, Cimber/Richards through 2023). That gave the Jays a jump on solidifying a bullpen that struggled badly in the first half, and Berrios adds another front-of-the-rotation arm to a starting five that might lose two arms to free agency.
Robbie Ray was one of the bargains of the 2020-21 offseason. The southpaw quickly re-signed with the Jays for a one-year, $8MM pact, and then delivered a season that may yet result in a Cy Young Award. Steven Matz’s contributions also shouldn’t be overlooked, as Matz battled with his consistency from time to time but still posted a solid 3.82 ERA over 150 2/3 innings.
Bringing back either of these pitchers is a distinct possibility. Ray will require perhaps the priciest contract given to any free agent pitcher this winter, though he has spoken highly of his time with the Jays and the coaching staff’s help in unlocking this new level of production. As a common matter of business, Ray will receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Blue Jays, though the team is also reportedly thinking about issuing Matz the QO. That would be a bold move since $18.4MM is likely well beyond what the Jays would normally feel comfortable giving to Matz in average annual value. However, if Matz accepted the one-year deal, the Jays could cross one big need off their checklist very early in the offseason.
And, if Matz rejected the QO, that would put the Jays in line for compensatory draft pick. That would make it as many as three extra picks for Toronto if Matz, Ray, and Marcus Semien all rejected qualifying offers and signed elsewhere. With this bonus draft-day stockpile, the Jays could feel more comfortable about surrendering another pick in order to ink another “qualified” free agent. (Caveat: this assumes some type of similar qualifying offer/compensatory pick system will continue to be in place in the next collective bargaining agreement between the league and players.)
Berrios, Hyun Jin Ryu, and rookie star Alek Manoah are currently lined up to fill the top three spots in Toronto’s 2022 rotation. The Blue Jays hope that Nate Pearson can stay healthy and have a Manoah-esque breakout, though the club might also use Pearson in the bullpen. Doing so would help to monitor his innings, which could be necessary considering how Pearson has pitched only 187 total innings in five seasons of pro ball. Ross Stripling will also return to make starts at the back end of the rotation or work as a long reliever, while younger arms like Anthony Kay, Thomas Hatch, or (if he isn’t non-tendered) Trent Thornton provide more starting depth.
If not Ray or Matz, some type of additional help is needed for this rotation mix. The signings of Ryu and George Springer over the last two seasons are evidence that the Jays are comfortable shopping at the top of the market, so pretty much any member of the free agent starter class is a possibility. The Jays could target the bigger names, or perhaps go after one big-ticket pitcher and then a lower-tier arm in search of a rebound year (essentially, the next Ray or Matz).
The same could also be true of the bullpen market, though traditionally, the Jays haven’t spent much on relief pitching since Ross Atkins became general manager. The club’s $5.5MM deal with Kirby Yates last winter counted as a big investment by that standard, yet that contract quickly became a bust since Yates missed the entire year due to Tommy John surgery.
Yates’ bad elbow was one of many injuries that ravaged Toronto’s bullpen early in the season. While the sheer volume of maladies is maybe unlikely to happen again, Atkins may focus on stockpiling bullpen depth to guard against a repeat scenario. This could manifest itself in a flood of minor league deals or low-cost MLB deals, or the front office might aim higher on the reliever market and look to someone in the Corey Knebel/Collin McHugh tier to join with Cimber, Richards, Tim Mayza, Julian Merryweather, and closer Jordan Romano.
Besides just free agents, the Blue Jays can always look to add arms via trade. The Jays has already parted with notable talent (Rowdy Tellez for Richards; top prospects Austin Martin and Simeon Woods Richardson for Berrios) to land pitching, so this is another instance where multiple compensatory picks could factor into the team’s decision-making. If the Jays know they’ll have two or three extra picks to reload the farm in the next draft, they might be more willing to swap another significant youngster this winter.
It’s probably unlikely that Toronto would move such blue-chip prospects as Gabriel Moreno, Jordan Groshans, or Orelvis Martinez, yet moving Martin a year after drafting him fifth overall also didn’t seem likely until it happened. If the right controllable star player is available, Atkins has shown that he is willing to take the big plunge on the trade front. For instance, to land a premium position player like Ketel Marte or (past Jays trade target) Jose Ramirez, the Jays could be more amenable to giving up a major prospect.
Alternatively, trading an infielder like Groshans or Martinez could be more palatable if the Jays knew Semien would be in the fold for years to come. After betting on himself with a one-year, $18MM deal last winter, Semien hit the jackpot with a huge 45-homer campaign. With two MVP-caliber performances in his last three seasons, Semien is now set to receive one of the bigger contracts of any free agent this winter, even in an offseason that features so many other elite shortstops.
Of course, Semien didn’t play much shortstop during his year in Toronto, instead working as the everyday second baseman alongside shortstop Bo Bichette. Since Bichette’s defense improved as the year went on, a Jays/Semien reunion would likely hinge on whether Semien is open to remaining at second base. Semien has the leverage to call his own shot at this point, so if he is prioritizing a return to shortstop or (as some reports suggest) a return to the West Coast, the Blue Jays may be out of luck.
The Jays’ lineup still has a lot of pop even without Semien. Bichette, a healthier Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, and MVP candidate Vladimir Guerrero Jr. form a strong nucleus. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has shown to be incredibly productive when on one of his hot streaks. Catchers Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen were similarly up-and-down amid injury-hampered 2021 seasons but still finished as above-average offensive contributors by measure of wRC+.
Santiago Espinal also surprisingly emerged to deliver some quality hitting from the third base position, which helped counter Cavan Biggio’s down year. Heading into 2022, the Espinal/Biggio combination could work as a platoon at third base or second base, depending on how the Blue Jays fill Semien’s spot. Espinal can handle either position from a defensive perspective, while a move to second base might be preferable for Biggio since his glovework struggled at the hot corner. Prospect Otto Lopez is another super-utility option who made his MLB debut in 2021 and could be ready for a longer look on Toronto’s bench next year.
Still, this flexibility allows the Jays to explore all options at either infield position. They could try to land a longer-term star (e.g. re-signing Semien, trading for Jose Ramirez, signing Corey Seager), or maybe obtain a veteran stopgap (e.g. Kyle Seager) to act as a bridge to Groshans or Martinez. Signing a multi-position player like Chris Taylor would only further increase their roster’s versatility, but with so many right-handed hitters already in the fold, a lefty or switch-hitter could be preferable.
Without a regular DH on the roster, the Blue Jays have enough space in the lineup to find at-bats for the outfield core of Gurriel, Springer, Hernandez, and Randal Grichuk. That said, although Grichuk has some power and can at least fill in at all three outfield spots, he also has just 1.5 combined fWAR since the start of the 2019 season. He seems like an expendable piece if the Jays can find a taker for the $18.66MM remaining on his contract.
Gurriel is cheaper and has more trade value, but he also has more value to the Jays. Toronto might rue moving Gurriel if he should develop as a consistent hitter in another team’s lineup. If one of Gurriel or Grichuk was dealt, the Blue Jays could explore re-signing Corey Dickerson, a left-handed bat who hit pretty well after being obtained from the Marlins.
With so many possibilities open to the Blue Jays this winter, it’s worth wondering just how much payroll space will be available to the club. Toronto has a deep arbitration class that is projected to be worth more than $40MM, factoring in big raises for Berrios, Hernandez, and Guerrero. Ryu and Springer take up big chunks of the guaranteed money on the books, though overall, the Jays have roughly $112.4MM to $114.5MM (as per Cot’s Baseball Contracts and Roster Resource) committed to their 2022 payroll.
Team president Mark Shapiro has already indicated that the Jays are prepared to spend more next season than they did in 2021, which means an increase from the roughly $140.6MM Roster Resource calculated as the club’s 2021 expenditures. Not all of these extra funds could be spent specifically in the offseason, as the Blue Jays will likely want to keep some money free for any necessary in-season transactions. However, since Toronto’s payroll topped the $165MM threshold (as per Cot’s) as recently as 2017, the Jays might have quite a bit of cash on hand to swing transactions assuming ownership is fine with a return to that level of spending. Acquiring a new high-salaried player or re-signing one of Semien or Ray would alone take up a big portion of those extra funds, so the Blue Jays might look to trim some of their existing costs through trades.
It is also worth noting that Springer is the only player on the books beyond the 2023 season, so the Jays could get creative in signing players to backloaded contracts. This future salary space will also come in handy as the team starts thinking about extensions. Berrios is the most pressing concern entering his final year of control, while Hernandez has two years of control remaining. Some long-term mega-deals will be required if the team hopes to lock up Bichette and especially Guerrero at this point.
The 2021 season has to be considered something of a missed opportunity for the Jays, considering how Semien and Ray performed beyond expectations, Manoah delivered the rookie breakout that was expected for Pearson, and Guerrero emerged as one of baseball’s best hitters. Still, the team heads into 2022 with a lot of momentum, and a return to normalcy has already been established now that the Jays are officially back in Toronto (as opposed to Buffalo and Dunedin). The Blue Jays would’ve loved to have cap off that homecoming with some playoff games this October, but they’ll now need to do some work this offseason to make that dream a reality next fall.
As a Yankees fan in Canada it’s nice to see Toronto have a good team. The chirping was always one sided but over the last few seasons, it’s been pleasant to hear the blue birds fans chirpin back.
Can’t wait for my first game in the city… I’ve got my boos and chants locked and loaded for Mr. Springer
Best book a trip to Buffalo or wherever he’s rehabbing. The concrete they play on will continue to hinder his knees, hamstrings and back.
Turf hasn’t been bad for your body for over ten years. The new tech is far and away no where near what it used to be. If you spent anytime on today’s turf you would know this.
It’s still concrete. If you knew anything you would look up the multiple articles on this subject. Players who play on turf require more off days then players who play on natural grass. This doesn’t just apply to mlb either. Stop trying to correct people who clearly know much much more than you Skywalker
Debbie downer over here
Are these articles they are doing the new versions of “Offseason Outlook?” I’ve never seen MLBTR write so many articles like this without actually using the words Offseason Outlook in the title.
Springer hurt his quad in spring training (on grass) and hurt his knee landing up against the wall.
No concrete involved.
I remember back in the day heckling all those busted Yanks from the Mitchell Report. Good times.
The rules regarding the QO and the draft picks gained should be in place regardless. How on earth are teams suppose to plan for next year when they have no idea what the rules are? Matz for example would only make sense to QO because of the potential pick attached to him. Regardless of if you personally like the rule or not or if you think he accepts it. You can’t have teams making decisions under current rules and change them after they make them in November.
You clearly are young and haven’t been involved in following baseball negotiations. They can change everything if they want to. You won’t see many deals getting done until after December 1st.
After the new agreement it could be completely different. You could have zero comp picks anymore. You could have no arbitration anymore. It could all change.
I think all he is saying is that the rules should kick in next offseason, which makes perfect sense
I know what he said. You can hope and want to have the same rules in place. But again that’s never happened with any other negotiations. Things always change. Always. Read a book.
Do you need a hug or something?
No one is saying things aren’t changing, you’re arguing your own points
It doesn’t make any sense. If the contract for what the rules are is up, it needs to be renegotiated. If the rules kick in automatically that’s like forcing a new contract into agreement sans actual agreement. It’s just not how any of this works.
No kidding. No need to bust balls when he has a valid point if you ask me. We all understand that’s not how it will work, just saying it would make sense. Chill out
Skywalker trying to jump into the ignorant top 5 of mlbtr real quick.
I wouldn’t make sense. It would make things easier, but it would be forcing a contract into place without an agreement from either side, which wouldn’t make sense at all. It would prevent change from ever occurring, essentially making current rules and agreements permanent. Sorry, but it makes no sense as in it’s not possible.
Skywalker is obviously a veteran baseball watcher and know his stuff. We all should bow down to his advanced knowledge.
Oh hail ye great and wonderous skywalker.
LOL
Your point that you won’t see deals getting done til December 1st supports the original comment. Teams can’t wait til 12/1 to decide on the QO, so it sucks for them, whether or not that’s how things have been is irrelevant to the point being made.
I think I have heard since the QO is accepted or rejected before December 1st, the current rules apply.
Let’s hope. Just hope there isn’t a work stoppage. I worry about the rules changing because whenever there is baseball negotiations they don’t rush through it to make an agreement. They go through everything until everything is talking about…… let’s hope it’s a happy offseason
Skywalker nice to see new fans here commenting like you. Just read what i write and it should give you more than enough education on the sport. Glad to see new fans even if you know very little beyond the sport is called baseball. Remember if you ever go to a ball game youngster make sure you bring your mitt pal. Rubs head and messes up your hair. Later sport.
K. Seager seems like a good option to replace Semien on the roster. Jay’s need to spend on pitching since they will have an affordable plus offense for the next 2-3 years.
So hear me out….
Josh Donaldson + Twins cover his 2024 buyout for Randel Grichuk and Otto Lopez
1. Springer CF
2. Donaldson 3B
3. Vlad 1B
4. Bo SS
5. Hernandez RF
6. Gurriel LF
7. Kirk/Jansen C
8. Biggio 2B
9. Espinal /Kevin Smith playing a position while someone else DHs
rest of the money goes to pitching
Dude you are an idiot. Donaldson was the worst defensive third basemen in mlb last year. Espinal was the 3rd.
They are not taking grichuk and Lopez. This trade is garbage and I find the fast you thought other people wouldn’t think that is insulting as a blue jays fan.
Have you only been a fan of the jays since 2015?
Do you know know how baseball actually works?
Why would we trade for an old barely average hitting very below Average third basemen ?
Skywalker27
Why would we trade for an old barely average hitting very below Average third basemen ?
==============================
Dude, time to lay off the caffeine. The trade he proposed hugely favored Toronto, imo.
1-IMO, the fit is great. Donaldson takes over 3rd and Biggio goes back to 2nd.
2-Since Grichuk is a #4, the net cost for Toronto would be $16M per, even assuming that TO spent $4M on a new #4.
3-In what universe is Donaldson’s 127 OPS+ ‘barely average’?
But none of that matters. What really matters is that you were extremely insulting in a trade that had a certain amount of merit. In fact, you went to far as to say that Minny wasn’t taking Grichuk, which implies that TO would be getting the better of it. And then hammered the trade because you didn’t think Donaldson was worth Grichuk.
You are way out of line here.
Dude look at donaldsons defense last year. The worst in baseball. I don’t care if he can barely still hit. Pitching and defence is all we need this offseason. You don’t get that buy bringing in Donaldson. You deplete your infield defense.
That’s all I’m talking about in regards to how shorty he has become.
He isn’t and we won’t get Donaldson from even 2017.
I don’t feel like paying for another calf injury.
Which he again had problem with last year.
And yes. That’s a garbage trade. there’s zero chance the jays bring in Donaldson for 3 YEARS!
What are you looking at that says Donaldson was the worst fielding third baseman last year?
Again, as originally proposed, there is no way that Minny makes that trade. IMO, it would be a steal for TO.
He’s using the old uncle Owen eye test
@skywalker
Donaldson was at 1 OAA , 1 DRS, and -6.2 UZR. So he was not objectively bad at defense. You can’t just look at one defensive stat and call it a day.
And ‘still barely hit?’
Donaldson had a 124 wRC+ and underperformed his expected stats by a good amount meaning his 124 wRC+ was actually ‘unlucky.’
He also only has 2 seasons left on his deal with an $8M buyout on a team option for a 3rd.
The team shut him down early last year since there was nothing left to play for and there was no need to risk injury otherwise he would have accumulated better numbers overall.
Donaldson on his current deal is worth more than an almost replacement level Randal Grichuk with $18m left on his deal and a 40 FV prospect.
averagejoe15
Donaldson was at 1 OAA , 1 DRS, and -6.2 UZR. So he was not objectively bad at defense.
=========================================
I much prefer using the Fielding Bible over one year of UZR. That measurement is too erratic for my tastes. According to the Fielding Bible, he was #15 in fielding, exactly average. He received no votes in 2020, but that voting was truncated. In 2019, he ranked #3.
If I were trading for him, I wouldn’t be concerned about his fielding. right now, his only negative is his salary. And, if Minny is not competing in 2022, that issue would work in Toronto’s favor.
Boom. Roasted. Well done Joe
@ Skywalker27;
You bring up good points, but you need to back off some. It’s one thing to go after people when they insult or demean your writing – I do that – but it’s another to pick a fight when someone simply has another opinion on a matter. Please note that everyone on social media knows that the name calling is usually done by those that cannot make an argument.
That said, I agree with you that Donaldson would be a bad pickup, not matter what the Jays ultimately trade for him……
Yes, he looks good on paper with a super 1-9 lineup in the offseason. Unfortunately, no team plays that anymore. Players get injured, they get rested, they have bad seasons, unexpected players have great seasons and earn more playing time (think how posters here criticized the signing of Semien last offseason), they get moved to different positions during the season.
As one person noted above, the Jays have plenty of offense. That is hardly what needs to be improved in 2022. They don’t need to “make up” for Simien’s 2021 production, they need PITCHING! Two of their starters are FA’s. There is a parameter that FO people have to work within – a BUDGET. Most Jays players are young and will be getting nice raises. They traded a lot for Berrios and want to keep him long-term – he’s looking for far more than a 10% boast in salary. Teams need at least 7 starting pitchers through the season – at this point the Jays have 3. Their bullpen was not the best in 2021, and it needs to be even deeper in 2022 if they have to go with unproven ML pitchers as starters. Then there’s unexpected long-term injuries.
The Jays are a relatively young team that should be a WS contender for at least the next 3 years. They don’t need to assume the large contract of an aging 3B that has nice power numbers. Baseball is all about pitching, Pitching, and PITCHING. The Jays don’t need the top staff in the league, but they do need one in the top 25% if they hope to get over the hump.
For the Record: According to Baseball Savant espinal was the 7th best defensive 3B; with four runs prevented; 5 outs above average. He also added a 2% success rate.
Josh Donaldson was rated 15th best defensive 3B: 1 run saved, 1 out above average.
I don’t think the Twins are taking on Grichuk and Lopez for Donaldson. Twins had a down year, probably looking for a quick rebuild.
As a Jays fan, i’d gladly take donaldson back to get rid of Grichuk.
I think, so far, everyone would trade Grichuk for Donaldson, which is still my point to Skywalker. I think everyone agrees that the trade favors Toronto. If Skywalker disagrees, fine. But to call someone an idiot, when you are the only one that would disagree with the trade, is pretty far afield. Fortunately, it appears that most TO fans are a little more attune to the issues.
I like it, a lot, but with two issues.
1-I see no way the MN pays off the option. It isn’t really even a bad option either. $16M against an $8M option means a net cost of $8M. There is a decent chance that he might be worth $8M in 3 years.
2-I don’t think MN makes the trade picking up that much salary for Grichuk. It means adding $20M in salary for a #4 OF. I think they’d be open to moving Donaldson, but if Minny was going to trade Donaldson, and eat $20M of his $43M + option, I think they’d get a decent prospect in return.
I’d look at it like a $60M/3 contract, less a $20M salary payment, making Donaldson $40M/3. He’d easily be worth $13M next year, and probably the year after.. I think the fit is great, and his 3 years contract fits nicely with TO’s near-term horizon, without have to pay a whole lot for Semien.
But you might be better off with Lopez for Donaldson + cash.
Donaldson is the worst statistical third basemen. And your guys want him batting second? So he can strike out 150 times from the right side of the plate?
We could go get a lot of other third basemen and you want us to play a 35 year old 13 mil to strike out and not catch the ball? Dude you are crazy and just woke up from a long long sleep.
There is a way to make your points without being an arse about though….
I love Josh Donaldson but I don’t want him batting *2nd* for this lineup. It’s not 2015 anymore.
Donaldson’s 21% K% was very reasonable for someone with his power. I would think someone who comes across as a know-it-all dbag would know this.
Donaldson also had an OBP of .350 last year. Also his statcast numbers are actually pretty good: 12th in barrles; 4th in average exit velocity. I dunno if he’d be a top of the lineup guy: but an excellent option for the bottom of the lineup, who could move up should he get hot again.
I dunno if i’d want to pay him 23 million at his age 37-40 seasons though.
Why would the Twins trade with Toronto? They raided them for everything they wanted first time around.
You already gave MIN a leg-up with Austin Martin that got your 1.5 years of Berrios. Not saying that’s a bad deal (yet), but please don’t bend over by taking on Donaldson’s contract most in MLB were smart enough to avoid.
I mean, Donaldson’s dad didn’t play pro ball!
Again, as a reminded Skywalker, the trade is not just for Donaldson. As originally porposed by Brixton, it was Donaldson for Grichuk plus MN kicks in the $8M 3rd year buy-out.
How is that not a steal for TO?
Because a buyout doesn’t play a position. I don’t want to trade for people who are already so bad that we need a prepaid buyout for them.
I don’t want to trade for people who are already so bad that we need a prepaid buyout for them.
=====================================
That doesn’t make sense financially. If someone else is paying for the option, then the option is free for Toronto. Free stuff always favors the team receiving free stuff.
Maybe I am missing something. If Donaldson continues to play at a 3.5 WAR level, then you give him the $16M. If he is playing at a 1 WAR level, then Minny buys out the contract for $8M and it costs Toronto -0-.
According to baseballtradevalues.com (a site I’d strongly encourage some of you to visit before screaming at strangers on the internet about how ridiculous a trade proposal is), this trade favors the Twins – but not by much. If the Twins threw in, say, 5m to offset some of Donaldson’s remaining salary (or a prospect like Chase Petty) the deal becomes pretty even for both sides.
I wouldn’t put too much faith in BBTV…it’s fine for a getting a baseline of value, I guess.
Agreed. It’s not something to follow as a religion. But it’s a nice reference point before shouting at strangers on the Internet.
Let’s not be logical here when we have the scout Skywalker commenting on here.
No thanks, his salary/ injury history are more than enough motivation to stay clear of Donaldson. His current nickname is “Hoping for Rain”.
I would love to see the Reds trade Moustakas for Grichuk. Not sure if the Blue Jays would do it though.
unfortunately zero chance. Grichuk has $18M owed over 2 years Moose has $38M owed over 2 years. Randal is an above average hitter, Moose is a below average hitter now it seems. Maybe if Cinci ate $25M+ of his salary and threw in a top 20 prospect…. otherwise it’ll never happen i feel
An above average hitter he is not. The dude can’t even crack the .300 OBP mark. At best he is a fourth outfielder
another wildcard factor here is the canadian dollar. although not good in many other ways for the canadian economy, the fact that it is becoming cheaper and cheaper to convert to USD will only help the Jays budget wise. $160M USD last year is effectively almost $175M USD this year without increasing the budget at all. (i know they hedge some USD but it is still a significant enough factor that it could be that extra signing)
I don’t think your understand how inflation works. 160M last year is in no way worth 175M this year.
I would love to see the math on how you got that.
He’s not talking about inflation he’s talking about currency exchange
All players sign contracts in American dollars regardless of where they live. But i think the previous poster is talking about revenues generated by the team in tickets sales, merch, etc sold in Canadian dollars and then exchanged to American. The favorable exchange rate would lead to a slight increase in revenue in that area, which might lead to a few extra dollars to spend, not tens of extra millions.
Skywalker27
160M last year is in no way worth 175M this year.
I would love to see the math on how you got that.
============================================
Maybe it is because I work with numbers, but I am not sure why you need to see the math.
160M/.7507 (last October’s rate) * .8065 (today’s rate) = $171.9M. Granted, it doesn’t get to $175M, but Bo said ‘close to $175M’.
Pretty sure the jays hedge currency by holding a certain amount of USD. Not saying a strong Canadian dollar won’t help but it’s not as impactful as one would hope.
They work only in American dollars. They have since 1977. the inflation or currency change doesn’t affect the jays at all. they are also given the extra through the competitive balance tax to offset differences in taxes. Again. Read. A . Book.
I use to handle foreign exchange hedges. What happens in Toronto is that their revenue is based in Canadian dollars. That’s not going to change. The salaries are based in USD.
If TO’s salary budget was C$ 200M, and the exchange rate at .75, then they can afford US$150M in salaries. If the exchange rate is .80, then they can afford $160M.
But that’s not important. What’s important is that you are insulting everyone in this thread, even when you are clearly wrong. You need a self-imposed time out.
Hey Skywalker. Settle down. You dont have to attack everyone.
Currency is relevant. A good chunk of their revenue comes in Canadian dollars. Gate revenue, advertising, TV, etc.
Skywalker
Question for you, when you go to the game do you pay for your ticket, merch, hotdog, beer with USD or Cdn?
When a sizeable portion of your revenue is in a different currency then most of your expenses fluctuations will impact your bottom line even when hedged.
Suggest you take your own advice….
READ A BOOK
@joebrady exactly. People don’t realize how much a 0.05 or 0.10 bps movement in foreign currencies can do to a large amount of funds like this. about 90% of the jays revenues comes in CAD. 100% of their salaries are in USD. They hedge around 25% to 50% for the coming year depending on the forecast with a trailing effect going out 5-10 years. While the end result likely won’t be a full $20M it very well could be an immediate direct $5-$10M benefit related to the upcoming year without having to actually increase payroll spending. Effectively players are cheaper this year than last year for the blue jays, but due to inflation will be more expensive this year than last year (likely) for every other team. (i tried to dumb it down for @skywalker27)
…..
“The exchange or currency change doesn’t affect the jays at all”
100% wrong.
I’m pretty sure a lot of their revenues come in in Canadian currency. Shapiro has often said that it’s sometimes difficult to forecast and budget when their revenues are in CAD and large portions of their expenses are in USD.
When did Shapiro said that? Remember the Jays aren’t counting pennies when comes to the right player
Also just because this year the Canadian and American dollars are close it doesn’t mean I will stay that way. 8 years ago the Canadian dollar was worth 25% less then American. So next year it can be different.
They aren’t close now. The exchange rate is currently 1.24. Two years ago it was 1.31. Ten years ago it was par. 20 years ago it was 1.60. The Canadian dollar has always been worth less than the USD.
but we are talking about this coming year not 10 years from now… you are trying to prove a point no one was making to make yourself appear somewhat correct (you weren’t and aren’t). The jays aren’t going to make a spending decision in 2022 based on ‘where the dollar might be’ in 2029.
I wonder what they A’s asking price would be for Chris Bassit. If they do go on a rebuild he’s gonna go first since he is a free agent after 2022. Would it make sense for the Jays to part with a good prospect or 2 if the A’s also throw in Trivino to help out the bullpen?
I like Bassit as a trade target. He’s set to make enough money and only a year of control left that I think he’s within the comfort zone for Toronto in terms of the prospect return. Manaea too.
Rather mannaea. How was Bassett looked since getting hit in the face.
Chapman would be nice as well. He is in the same spot with close to the same stats Donaldson had before we got him. Stellar defense and he wouldn’t have to be “the man” in this lineup. Probably hit 6th.
Good point. Even if the physical medicals come back fine, you’d have to wonder how he’s going to handle being back on the mound. There’s also Montas on that staff and he’d come with an extra year of control. Still cheap though so it would cost a lot more and Oakland might be less willing to move him.
Pearson needs pitch, not throw. Hope the kid sorts it out. Nice to see the Jays competing. The mediocrity mindset cultivated during the Ricciardi era is officially over – good.
Pearson just needs professional innings. He’s had basically one year in pro ball thanks to be hurt most of the time. What he needs most of all is an end to all the injuries.
They should dangle Groshans or Moreno to the Cardinals for Flaherty.
Both those guys are untouchable short of getting a top ten player in return. Like Mookie Betts or someone similar.
Ask the Marlins for starting pitcher for a catcher
Ask the A’s about Chapman to fill the space at 3b, I love Lourdes but A’s will love an mlb bat with a cheap controllable contract
Swap Grichuk for Odirizzi
Espinal, biggio split 2b.
Ask white Sox for Kimbrel, shouldn’t take much if you take on the contract.
I’d love Seager but I think they will look more in to trades versus another big contract. He would fit in rather perfectly though
@dustylamb
If Chicago picks up the option, they will want something of value. They can just decline the option if they are worried about the contract.
I believe there’s a 1mm buyout so probably a flyer prospect gets it done combined with the 1mm in savings.
Package around Groshans and maybe a couple lower level prospects? For a Ketel Marte.. Would be nice. Brining in a switch hitter, or some lefties could make this lineup more potent then it was last year.
Trading Gurriel for pitching or a Ketel Marte and signing a Kyle Schwarber would give this lineup crazy length. Again, would love to see a switch hitter and maybe a lefty in this lineup.
Where would Schwarber play positionally?
LF. Gurriel goes, and Schwarber takes his spot. Schwarber can carry a lineup imo the way Gurriel can’t, also hits for more power. Red Sox loved him, so would we.
Gurriel 2nd half was decently close to shwarber.
.296/.360/.529
But if we can get more left handed and use gurriel to improve 3b or starting rotation, then it should be considered.
I also think they should consider trading Teo, his value is so high right now and he’s about the get expensive
I remember when Nick Castellanos was a free agent like 3-4 years ago. (And is again).I was screaming for the Jays on here to sign him, he was one of the best hitters in baseball. He was like 26 years old at the time. A flat out bonafide hitter when he signed with the Reds. Jays to me should’ve gotten him at the time. If only we weren’t too righty heavy right now..
Now he’s an even better hitter.. Jays have to see real talent when it’s there, especially when it’s undervalued sometimes. This time around, I’m
screaming for Schwarber. Schwarber to me will be one of the best hitters in baseball next season, and probably for years to come. He’s found his stride! Nows the time to capitalize imo.. Bring in the lefty, another premier bat to this lineup. He’d dominate playing in our ballpark for half a season.
Vlad, Schwarber, Teo in the middle of the lineup? With guys like Springer and Bo at the top? My god.. Flat out scary, and pure dominance. And once again, very, very realistic. Jays would just “want” to wanna do it.. they wanted Schwarber at the deadline, I hope they want him again. And are willing to outpay the Red Sox possibly to get him.
Switch hitter would change everything about this line. Marte/Ramirez either would be huge for the team. I also really want Dickerson back. Dude was clutch.
Really wish espinal was lefthanded
Would be great to have Dickerson as our 4th outfielder.. A lefty who can hit. Can spell the other guys every now and then, play some DH as well. Or maybe even play him at LF everyday and trade Gurriel.
If they can add a solid prospect next to Grichuk so someone can take him off our books, would be nice. Doesn’t hurt though to have Grichuk as our 4th outfielder, when he’s hot, he can most certainly help the team. But an a ideal world, would like to see more lefty bats on this team, more versatility the better.
1. CF Springer
2. SS Bo Bichette
3. 1B Vladdy
4. RF Teoscar
5. DH Schwarber/Dickerson
6. LF Dickerson/Schwarber
7. 2B Biggio
8. 3B Espinal
9. C Jansen
Jays would mix and match and split the lefty/righty combos better then I did obviously, but that right there would make for a great lineup, and something that’s realistic. All they’d really need to do is convince Schwarber to come north of the border.. and Dickerson is probably an easy sign if they want him back.
And this is without a 3B/2B upgrade.. But if they’d get a Schwarber, I’d give the Indians whoever they’d want for a Jose Ramirez. Then this lineup would be the absolute best on paper in baseball. Dodgers, Astros, whoever, we’d be better offensively then them all.
Jays have the money, and the prospects to make it possible. Very possible, throw enough money at Schwarber, and give the Indians enough prospects, and compete for a ring. (Or the diamondbacks for Marte).
At the point, I wouldn’t even mind bringing in Matz back as the only starting pitcher addition, while upgrading the pen with an arm or two. Trade deadline we’ll be looking to add again anyway.
And again, I’d sweeten Grichuk with a solid prospect, and maybe add another lefty to the bench. Versatility would make us lethal.
As in a belly flop splash?
What the Blue Jays really need is a Major League manager. Priority one.
The second thing they should do is get a catcher. Preferably one, on a short term deal, that can eventually work with Kirk (as he might need another month or two in the minors for seasoning). They should trade Jansen while he has some value he managed (after three years) to garner with his little bit of offensive outburst. IMO it will not be like that next year because every time you think Jansen might have potential he reverts back to the 170 hitter. Also Jansen is not the answer behind the plate as he is below average overall and has proven time and again he can not make in game adjustments when needed.
Solve those 2 problems and the Jays are are good step in the right direction without spending a ton of money which will be needed for pitching and lots of it.
All managers are bad tactically, with the exception of Cora, Francona, and a few others. I know Montoyo is bad with the relievers, but isn’t it kind of the front office’s fault for giving him Dolis, Chatwood, Edwards Jr, etc?
Yes and no.
Montoyo wasn’t given a great pen and a weak rotation to begin that put a lot of pressure on the pen in the beginning. Which he should not be faulted for.
He did make a lot of mistakes tactically including continuing to go to dolis and Chatwood and most unforgivably didn’t have other arms warming up behind then when they inevitable walked the game in to a loss column.
Romano was also poorly used this yea, he had multiple stretches where he didn’t pitch for a week. I don’t think they will fire montoyo at this point but there is definitely room for improvement of in game management
Montoyo also made bad decisions on the offensive side. He left Vlad Jr. in the 2 hole way to long and everybody except him could see the kid did not like it there…proof came when he finally moved him back to the three hole. He also made to many mistakes with pinch hitting or not pinch hitting…some circumstances can be questionable but when you take out a catcher in the sixth before the starter is out of the game and its not a blow out……no excuses for that or how he would use another pinch hitter to early and leave himself hamstrung in the 8th 9th inning, In a close/tie game, and no pinch hitter for a bad hitter or how he would let a bad/pop up hitter with guys on first and third and less than two outs swing away instead of bunting or hit and run. Or how he let the players make the same constant running errors that never seem to get addressed….Icould go on but I made my point
Charlie, on multiple occasions this season, had position players bunt with two strikes.
Darth. Agree with you on the manager. But the catching is fine. They have 3 MLB catchers and good depth on the farm.
Ducey the catchers are not fine Jansen is and has been a below defender and his hitting is awefull except for a three day stint in July and a couple weeks in September, in no way shape or form is that a major league catcher…there are defensive backstops that can hit more consistently (not great) and are cheaper than the 1.7M Jansen will cost.
Kirk has shown to make good strides in development but he is far from a starter and could use some time in the minors
McGuire, the best defender of the bunch, is average defensively slightly above in some metrics (last I looked) and has zero power but can get a few hits….the definition of a backend platoon or backup catcher, which I am fine with him doing.
That being said a guy that can come in for a couple years and help Kirk when he is recalled would be asset and not that expensive.
Look at the starters’ ERA with Jansen in there. Its significantly lower. There are plus/minus to every catcher on their roster.
You better look again and Jansen was as of middle of September a minus 1. If you don’t want stats look at the obvious…Ray wanted Kirk to catch him after a couple of starts in the early season and Berrious wanted McGuire after one start with Jansen.
Also I was following Jansen stats up to about September and although he did improve each time he came of the DL he was still near the bottom or middle (at best) of the pack in pretty much every category. He also ranked 32 overall of all the catchers in baseball 18th (or 19th if you take out all the ones with less than 10 games caught.
Disagree on both points. Charlie’s basically a development: guy; the jays have a lot of prospects coming into the big leagues, and it’s his job to make them big leaguers. He’s not a strategy genius, nor is he expected to be.
Blue Jays have 3 major league caliber catchers on their roster and their current top prospect is Moreno, a catcher, the number 8 prospect in baseball. They don’t need more catchers.
If Charlie is a development guy then let him go to the minors and develop not on a team expected to compete. That attitude is why this team gets away with the things like not paying for a Major League Manager or not bringing in the extra pieces they need…like everybody knew they needed more bullpen before last season and they did nothing until just before the deadline. So what do the Rogers apologist do ……make excuses for Rogers and blame everything but Rogers.
.THIS IS A BIG MARKET TEAM and it should be a winner not have fans buying the excuses and repeating them. Get a Major League Manager and get the pieces this team needs.
Dusty Baker is making peanuts (which is a travesty), so are Boone and Roberts. Teams don’t pay managers anymore, and those guys are in big market cities. Girardi makes decent money and so does that dunce Maddon in Anaheim. Thats about it
Well none of them are getting paid peanuts but compared to the players I guess its all peanuts….Roberts is in the top ten and he is only making 2 M less than Boone. Top dog is Francona and he only makes 4.2M so no need for the Jays to cheap out..
I’ve been big a Jays fan since 1985, vividly remembering the fun years of the mid- to late ‘1980’s, the early 1990’s, and the mid 2010s, watching games on TV and listening to the games on the radio. The Jays can repeat those heady days if they focus this off-season on three things: 1) Pitching, 2) Pitching, and 3) Pitching.
Let’s go Jays!!!
I wonder what kind of contract Marcus Semien is trying to land. Probably every team in baseball would have some type of interest if the deal is 3-4 years. Longer than that is pretty risky in my opinion.
My best guess is he’s a lock for 5 years at 20-25 million AAV. If any team gets desperate and steps in with the 6th year they will probably land him.
at 5 years he’s a perfect fit to take over for Correa in Houston, or maybe Detroit likes his veteran leadership and work ethic and give him that 6th year to kick start their upward trajectory back to relevance
I think Semien would like to go back to the A’s (he loves Oakland) but they just turfed their manager to save money so that isn’t happening.
I would guess somewhere on the west coast. Hopefully the qualifying offers still exist in a month. That was an inspired signing by the Jays. It would be nice to get a pick out of it.
Jimmertree posts all need to be screenshot for the lulz half way thru the year. Last year he said Ray didn’t know where the ball was going, Semien was a spare part and Matz was a number 47 starter who was a dfa candidate,
Imagine actually thinking a team let alone the jays could sign all 4 of those pitchers… like seriously. Get back to reality. If your team needs to sign 4 free agents let alone 4 free agent starting pitchers you aren’t a contender and have no business going for it to begin with.
He’s hilarious. It’s like constanza when he was almost assistant GM
Shapiro and Atkins have big work to do. They need to do it in the winter. Waiting for the deadline to get pitching cost them the playoffs this year. The Jays need difference makers right out of the gate.
The first thing that needs to happen is Montoyo has to go. He’s awful. Schneider can do the job well and the players respect and respond to him.
The next is the same thing they needed last year at this time but didn’t do it: Pitching. Ryu is on a downward slide and can’t pitch a whole year anymore. Manoah is a keeper as is Berrios but they are all 3’s in the rotation. Pearson is in the bullpen, period. The rest of the current Jays rotation options are spare parts unless Borucki bulks up again and does the offseason work that Ray did last year. Hatch needs to get his act together, he has the stuff. Matz had a fluke year and isn’t likely to repeat it. Cut him loose. Same with Stripling.
The Jays still need an ace for the rotation. Scherzer is my choice. Another three would be Stroman and two good lottery tickets are Cobb and Verlander. Sign them all.
As for other parts, Grichuk has to go. Period. Keep the rest of the outfielders and look at kids to fill the gap.
Bichette needs to be moved to second. A championship team does not have Bichette playing SS. Biggio seems unwilling to make swing corrections and has a huge dead pull hole in his swing. Its a shame to, he could be great. Trade Biggio while he still has value. Espinal is a keeper. He is the everyday SS unless the Jays go for Seager. As for 3B a trade for Ramirez would fit nicely.
Jansen needs to be traded now. Give Kirk a chance and McGuire is fine until one of the kids are ready.
Shapiro and Atkins did a great job signing a transformed Robbie Ray and Semien last year but they really blew the pitching right out of the gate. They need to fill in the production gap that Semien will leave and get much better pitching like they did at the trade deadline right away.
Jimmer… we get it, we get it! Bichette has weak wrists and will never be an everyday SS
The Jays did a great job competing last year and setting themselves up for success in 2022. With some payroll flexibility they should make a couple of notable moves.
Thing is Ray and Semien were absolute beasts last year. Better than even the best predictions. If either or both are gone/fall back to earth that’s a pretty big blow.
Ray was always good just not in 2020 and not as good as 2021… but most generally he’s a solid pitcher and will guarantee you strikeouts.
I think they’ll at least try to retain Robbie Ray, though I’m sure he will have a big market.
The Blue Jays need to keep Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien, that is a must. Semien’s loss would mean they need to replace his output just to stay afloat. Steven Matz would be okay to resign as long as it is a decent deal. I think that pitching is their priority. Just my opinion.
I would not be surprised if Ray and Semien came back, If the number works for Toronto
It’s unknown what the offer would’ve been to Trevor Bauer, but they were at least entertaining bringing in a starter with that type of short term investment
Ultimately depends on what Ray is looking for but 6 for 115 with the last years amounts trailing off to 15 would be a good gamble on Toronto and life changing money for Ray. Hard to see his total being much higher then that with the ups and downs of his 2018-20 seasons.
Semien really said all the right things, and made it sound like he’d love to be back, and I can’t help but wonder if the Springer deal would be enough to bring him back
Assuming you become a $200 million spending team, you could handle both, in addition to what’s coming, but for me, the priority needs to be
1. Extend Berrios
2. Get 2 every day left handed or switchhitting bats into the lineup (for me it’s Ramirez via trade and extension and then Schwarber)
3. Get one sure thing starter, and one matz like project (Ideally using prospects that would otherwise be rude five eligible, like last year’s deal for Matz)
4. Explore extensions for all of your own, we all know who
5. Do your best to get one solid late inning reliever, A serviceable lefty, and then five lottery ticket type signings in the bullpen
6. Make a decision on Danny Jansen, is he your catcher for the future, and if so bring in a vet to play alongside him, otherwise bring in a vet to play alongside him, and do your best to play him up as a trade piece. If the 40 man allows it I would be OK leaving Kirk at AAA, if you feel like Moreno is two years away, if Moreno Is knocking on the door, why would you be taking away his time at AAA
I do also wonder, if you are going to go all in on Moreno, Could he be an extension candidate, similar to Scott Kingery, That you could extend before he even plays a minute in the majors. Cost certainty to get that position would really allow you to do a lot of things going forward, and if you were insulating a catcher like that, with a good veteran counterpart, Then and overpay for a right handed hitting 30 year old infieldEr like Semien, might be more easier to stomach, if you’re expecting that those preparation and leadership intangibles are going to rub off.
7. Get something for McGuire and Gritchuk
8. Bring Dickerson back as the 4th outfielder. To see Robbie Ray resign as quick as he did after enjoying his time with the Toronto organization, even though they weren’t playing in Toronto, and then to hear a lot of their comments about finally getting to play in Toronto, I do feel it speaks volumes when you trade for a player and he wants to come back. Bringing Dickerson back as a fourth outfielder, knowing that in that role he would have the option to go to most contending teams via agency, would, imo, continue to generate the Toronto as a choice destination sentiment around the league.
When your team wins more games then the World Series winner won while not qualifying for the playoffs…you get pretty jacked about the upcoming offseason
Happy Hot stove season everyone
Don’t you think Ross Stripling is a non-tender candidate at that price?
Congratulations to the Atlanta Braves and especially Alex Anthopoulos on winning the 2021 World Series.
A.A. spent 6 seasons as GM with the Toronto Blue Jays with Paul Beaston as the President. This tenure culminated with the Jays winner the AL east title in 2015.
Rogers the Blue Jays owners then went out an hired Mark Sharpiro as President on Beaston announcing his retirement. And they made it clear to A.A. that he would take his orders from Sharpiro.. Sharpiro came from the Cleveland Indians where he did nothing to advance the Indians.
To the shock of Sharpiro and likely Rogers A.A. declined to renew is upcoming contract and went to the Dodgers as VP of player development, where he remained for two years before moving to the Atlanta Braves for the 2018 season where he was named GM and currently club President.
In four short years he has turned the franchise which the Braves C.E.O described as a team in turmoil into the World Season Champions.
Sharpiro and Atkins in the time since A.A. left haven’t come remotely close to playing in the World Series.
Perhaps A.A. will be nice and let Sharpiro and Atkins hold his World Series Ring at the winter meetings because I believe that’s the closest they will ever come.. Its not because they don’t have the talent, it that they don’t exude team confidence.
Toronto is probably Division Favorite for next year if they get a bit of pitching.
No Schwarber please! I’m OK with Dickerson as our 4th and 5ft OF. But that’s it!
If that is the case, then trade some for Ramirez already who can play 2B/3B. Can still sign Bryant afterwards as well!
1.Springer CF
2.Bichette SS
3.Vladimir Jr. 1B
4.Bryant RF
5.Ramirez 3B
6.Teoscar DH
7.Lourdes Jr. LF
8.Moreno C
9.Biggio 2B
Let’s go!