The collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1st, and it’s unclear whether its rules for draft pick compensation will remain in place for the 2021-22 offseason, whenever teams eventually sign free agents. It’s at least possible that the current rules will be used once more. We know that the qualifying offer is set at $18.4MM this winter, and by mid-November we’ll know which players received and turned down a QO. If those players sign with new teams, here’s a look at the draft picks each signing club would lose – if the old rules are used.
Competitive Balance Tax Payors: Dodgers, Padres
If either of these teams signs a qualified free agent from another team, it must forfeit its second-highest and fifth-highest pick in the 2022 draft. The team will also have its international signing bonus pool reduced by $1MM. Both teams could plausibly sign a qualified free agent, though the Dodgers have significantly more payroll space.
Revenue Sharing Recipients: Brewers, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Marlins, Mariners, Orioles, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, Twins
These 13 teams received revenue sharing and did not exceed the competitive balance tax. If one of these teams signs a qualified free agent, it forfeits its third-highest pick. These teams face the smallest draft pick penalty. Of this group, the Mariners and Tigers seem to be the most likely to sign a qualified free agent, but others like the Twins and Marlins are possible.
All Other Teams: Angels, Astros, Athletics, Blue Jays, Braves, Cardinals, Cubs, Giants, Mets, Nationals, Phillies, Rangers, Red Sox, White Sox, Yankees
These 15 remaining teams would forfeit their second-highest pick and and have their international signing bonus pool reduced by $500K. The penalty is something of a middle ground. The Mets are of particular note: due to their failure to sign Kumar Rocker, they pick at both #11 and #14 in 2022, making that #14 pick subject to forfeiture.
What happens if a team signs two qualified free agents? The CBA calls for forfeiture of the next highest available draft pick. For example, if a team has already lost its second and fifth-highest picks and it signs a second qualified free agent, it would lose its third and sixth-highest picks. So as in the past, if you’ve already signed one qualified free agent, the draft pick cost to sign another is reduced.
Who are the guardians?
Indians
The guardians are meddling AAA team stuck in Cleveland. City surrounded by a large, smelly lake.
And a river they set on fire once….
Let’s not forget the balloon thing…
The midges
Louholtz22 that was a punk answer.
@Louboltz22 Are you ever going to answer the simple question of how many days in his entire professional career (both minor and major league) Trea Turner has spent on the IL due to non-HBP related injuries?
I’m curious do you know?
As a Dodgers fan I wish Trea Turner was on the IL during the NLCS.
No kidding, man. What a wimp he was in the playoffs. Mr Tapper, my sons and I called him.
Genius, I believe that middling was the word you were desperately searching for with your limited vocabulary.
They meddle in Cleveland. Oh, yeah, forgot. The city also has a semi-pro football team. The QB is funny in his 30 second tv ads. He’s also comedic on the field with his poor throws and 5’7” stature. As far as Trea Turner goes, mix in a glass of milk once in awhile. Maybe those brittle bones wouldn’t break every time he’s hit by a pitch
@Louholtz22 Not every time. Only when he’s hit squarely in the wrist/finger. I’d like to see you not break a bone if you are hit by a 90+ mph pitch in those locations. Not a lot of skin protecting those bones.
HBP-related injuries are not a risk factor for future injury.
I don’t see that being the case in Toronto !
A member of the AL Central.
They’re the Spiders, or should have been.
I’m still in favor of Mistakes
Steamers. They should have been called the Cleveland Steamers.
They totally missed the naming opportunity of a lifetime: the Cleveland Rocks! Comes complete with an excellent fight song!
They should be the Indians.
Home the meats sign Semin if the Jays don’t. That 14th pick would be pretty nice
I don’t believe forfeited picks go to the teams qualified players played for. Am I wrong? I thought that draft slot just gets skipped over
Correct
Formerly known as Indians
Follow baseball much?
Oy vey it’s tough being a Padres fan. Avoid QFA’s? Who knows? Looking like my Padres might have to sign some mid tier arms for the rotation and just run it back. Dodgers, Giants in the division make it nearly impossible to turn the corner. Just play, do your best and let the chips fall where they may. SD is still a tantalizing place to play/live.
don’t forget that the giants had a losing record until this year in addition to one of the higher payrolls as of a couple of years ago. It is possible to get out of it but you have to make smart moves not big ones and I don’t know if the padres are ready and willing to do that
Good point and encouraging. Work smarter/not harder so to speak. Giants impress me big time with their ability to get their most bang for their buck. Shrewd FA acquisitions and commitment to their veteran core. Dodgers, yes vast payroll but excellent at scouting and developing talent the minor league level. Savvy trades and FA signings. Pads can use both as a bench mark
At 18mm truly how many small market teams will even send a qualifying offer to their soon to be free agents? Not many!
I’m sure they have sold by now
I’d rather not sign some big free agent. Their team is already really good on paper no matter what happened last year, especially if Clevinger is healthy. Look what happened the last times they signed big name free agents- Myers and Hosmer are financial liabilities, and although Machado has done well, his contract is huge and will be one of the most overpaid players in the league in a few years.
Mainly the rotation is the issue. Two arms to round out the rotation in case Clevinger goes down. Paddack,Clevinger,Snell and Darvish all battled injuries leaving Musgrove as the only healthy starter to start the year. Maybe pursue Nelson Cruz or add Jesus Aguilar via minor trade if possible(not sure how reasonable that is). Bring back Zach Davies, sign an Alex Wood, Andrew Heaney or if possible Jon Lester. Maybe a Drew Smyly. I’d go after Quintana on a bounce back.
Just thinking out loud here. I’m sure I’m out of line, but I wonder if there is a scenario where a team like the Cubs (money to spend, looking for prospects) take on Hosmer and Myers in order to get 1 top prospect, and a young arm.
Willson Contreras and (Ian Happ?) for Luis Campusano, Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers, and maybe Chris Paddock or MacKenzie Gore?
Padres get a legit catcher (could extend) and utility player, while freeing up cap space to address other needs. I’m sure I’m way off, but something like this might make sense.
No hate on your idea but I think you’re light on prospects heading to Chicago. Gore’s stuff reportedly hasn’t looked great, and you’re asking the Cubs to give up Contreras + take on two awful deals. No way the conversation doesn’t start with Abrams, include Campusano, and then a lot, lot more you probably don’t want to see SD part with.
Not a bad idea but maybe a little steep on the Pads side of things. Maybe a Hosmer, Campusano and Weathers or Gore for Contreras. Although Campusano may end up being a Contreras type, freeing up Hosmers salary allows for more flexibility
Chill it down. Its only one year of Contreras that’s being traded.
Hosmer’s toxic. No team wants him.
If you have to exceed the luxury tax to make the playoffs gm should be fired. After you exceed it, it’s hard to continue the success without going below it.
Only 28 teams were mentioned. The Padres were left out.
padres and dodgers are mentioned as the top tier because of payroll
Very interesting note on the Mets. Don’t see them signing any FAs with a QO attached.
And yet their farm system is terrible. They have no choice but to buy FAs.
The Padres basically sign a qualified offer free agent every year with how quickly he trades recent draft picks.
As a Tigers fan, nice to be in the most favorable group. Easily see the Tigers parting with one, maybe two picks to get the FA’s they want. For sure they will for a SS, but they could use rotation help given the injuries to Boyd and Turnbull. This allows them to go after someone who would want more than a one year contract. We’ll see how the CBA negotiations affect this, but since these rules are in place now I see them not changing until next year.
The Tigers are on the cusp. Always risky losing picks but the right FA’s could be worth it. Trades are always a possibility as well
My money is on them to win the central
The tigers will sign Correa and desclafani
I still don’t know whether the the Tigers will be looking to add a high dollar, extra long term contract, with Miggy’s fresh on their mind. I could see a 4-5 year, but not 8-10. With Hinch as manager, I could see them avoiding Correa, one of the players that got him thrown under the bus. I expect a starting pitcher who can throw 200 innings to be higher on their list than SS, though it questionable if such a thing exists anymore.
Contract these teams: Revenue Sharing Recipients: Brewers, Diamondbacks, Guardians, Marlins, Mariners, Orioles, Pirates, Rays, Reds, Rockies, Royals, Tigers, Twins.
Put all teams on a level playing field like the NFL. MLB favors the large market teams. It is not a fair game. Big market teams have many larger revenue streams than the small markets do. Local TV for example.
The NFL system stinks. No thank you.
The NFL is a different sport and appeal with a different revenue model built on it being a national sport. Baseball is a regional sport. Right now, I’m watching MNF, and it doesn’t really matter too much who the teams are. They’ll get the ratings. No chance in a regional sport like baseball that will happen. As it is, the reason why you get so many Yankee-Red Sox and Dodgers and major market games on Sunday night baseball is because they are already carrying the national TV contracts to the benefit of the small markets. Do you think the players like being on late Sunday night and then have to fly out to their next series while the small market team players are already home or at their next location? Now you want the major market teams to spend and build regional TV networks, spend money to constantly have competitive teams to draw ratings and fans to the parks, who spend much higher money on concessions, and they should just turn that money over to small market teams sitting on their hands contributing zip?
The problem with MLB right now is they’ve created a model allowing near non-revenue teams like the Rays to exist while they contribute nothing back to the greater league.
I was half joking when I said contract, but there are at least four teams that need to create a more sustainable local model, or relocate. MLB has allowed the situation to fester. If I owned a major market team, I’d say enough is enough. Give them a timeline to fix it either in market or by moving to another market.
Outstanding post. The issue with the Rays’ model? The operation is a success but the patient dies.
Mondays and Thursdays typically are the days with a lower amount of teams playing because of late Sunday night games and travel arrangements. For a decent portion of those Sunday Night games, they do not play Mondays.
its plenty level, just most of the teams are cheap and cry poor
Mlb has more parity than the nfl. It’s literally not debatable. Not to mention the nfl schedule literally matches up all the crap teams vs crap teams from the previous year and they still can’t get some teams to ever win. Spending doesn’t equal winning. If it did the rays and A’s would never make the playoffs and the Yankees and dodgers would have multiple World Series titles in the last 15 years.
It literally is debatable. MLB has parity among SOME of its playoff spots. First you have to account for the ones that go the big spenders. The Dodgers have been in the playoffs 9 out of 10 years. The Yankees were in 7 out of 10 years. In a 30 team league with 10 playoff teams, it should be good to make the playoffs 4 out of 10 years.
Sure you can claim parity when different teams win the World Series, but it is not true parity because certain teams with more money have more opportunities to win. The postseason is really just a matter of who gets hot over a 2-3 week period. This year’s NL playoffs should prove that.
Fair? If you’re buying a franchise, would you plop down a load of cash for a small market team? Maybe if MLB makes things “fair”. It’s like the ending of the Big Short. “They knew the taxpayers would bail them out.” A’s and Rays should have relocated years ago. Nashville and North Carolina would have great interest and are growing markets.
Or move each of these teams to NY and/or LA.
Hat tip to the Rays owner for the and/or idea.
MLBPA should try to eliminate this penalty from the next cba.
Yes, the penalty should be removed from the teams that aren’t located in big markets. They’re the ones who are truly penalized.
@kayral
In exchange for what?
That’s what some of the posters don’t get. Every time you get something, you have to give something. And it isn’t the concept that’s bad; it is the execution. Clark bargained for a 2% increase every year. With revenues skyrocketing, it probably should’ve been closer to 4%. Even had he settled for 3%, the cap would’ve been about $219M instead of $210M.
Article begins with the big caveat that this is only if the current rules stay the same. The players association and some big market teams will probably be angling to reduce or remove the signing penalties. Maybe in exchange for enhancing the compensation rules to the losing team?
Right now the Red Sox second-highest pick is no. 41 which was for not signing second round pick Jud Fabian. Would the Red Sox lose this pick for signing a qualified free agent or the pick after that? Just wondering if it is protected. Sounds like it is not.
Yes they would lose that one
They’d lose 41
Why is Arizona a recipient given Phoenix is the 5th most populous city in the US?
Because it’s based on metro areas, not city limits; and has not been updated with the 2020 census.
Have to think Cohen will be in Manfreds ear making sure that rule is gone by the time major free agents start going off the board.
How could it possibly have come to this for the Padres? They went from a mid-level payroll, and a great farm, to one of two teams being penalized because of their payroll, and still only a 79-win team.
They tried to hotshot their way to the playoffs instead of the slow build. Never really made sense given how great of a team the dodgers were. Add in the Giants miracle season and you have a really crappy situation if the current system stays similar in the next couple years.
You have obviously not been watching the Padres over the last 50 years or so if this surprised you.
That’s not even mentioning the quality of their system, either. I think they’re a better team than they showed in 2021, but it will be quite the interesting case study over the next couple years.
this system still sucks. just give teams sandwich picks when they lose players. you dont need to take someone else’s pick because you’re cheap.
You could also look at it the opposite way. You don’t need to lose someone for nothing because someone else has more money than you.
I agree they don’t necessarily need to take away picks from teams, but they definitely need to give picks to teams. I don’t understand why they can’t just have a sandwich round with given picks without taking away picks for signing players. It’s not like there is a limited supply of players that can be drafted.
If you don’t take picks away, and instead add sandwich picks, it’s hurting every other team too by diluting all lower picks. Taking picks from the signing team is meant to serve as a disincentive to that team- not punish the whole league because one team doesn’t resign a player.
As a RS fan, and I have no problem losing a pick if we are raiding someone else’s system, and paying more than a small market team can afford to pay. I wouldn’t even like baseball as much if they only thing we needed to do was to pay more than anyone else. It’s supposed to be a challenge. You’re supposed to have to think long and hard about signing players.
Is your idea of a competitive match something where your team signs the top 10 free agents, and win 95 games and beat out Oakland with 90? That’s boring.
wait a second.
i could have sworn you guys mentioned before that all first round picks are protected, whether they’re standard picks, awarded picks for not signing guy previous year, or competitive balance picks.
so wouldn’t that mean mets surrender 2nd round pick instead? if they were to sign someone, eligible, i mean.
No
You lose your second pick so yeah most years that would be a comp pick or second rounder. There’s no scenario where it’s a good thing not to sign your first rounder from the year before. #metsbeingmets
There is one scenario. The Astros proved it. In a weak draft year, pick someone you can lowball so when they don’t sign you get a pick in a much stronger draft the next year.
Of course, it is hard to imagine the Mets having someone with the talent of Rocker available at pick #11 in 2022.
Who can argue with that? We all know that Alderson is the elephant in the room responsible for the lol- prefix even after an owner change. Ditching Chili Davis only one month in without a better option ready and waiting was the beginning of the new end. Everything from there on in, went right into the crapper. And the only way we got through most of it unscathed was every other team in our division was taking a dump right along with us.
Not going to dump on the Mets, they may still land a talented baseball exec that can build a team that’s a consistent, solid contender. But I have to say, I’m extremely happy that Harris is staying in SF. I couldn’t be happier with the Giants FO as it is.
After reading this – It looks like Mets got the short stick AGAIN!
I have no respect for the so-called “Guardians” with their weak ownership, lame front office personnel and gutless fanbase…all who bowed down to the woke mob and destroyed 100+ years of history and heritage. You disgust me.
Meanwhile in Atlanta fans will be doing the chant and chop.
I’ve always found the chant really cool. Find me a bunch of Native Americans who hate it.
Might be a bit hard to do that after the “Indigenous Holocaust” that saw over 12M native peoples killed between 1492-1900.
In fairness, all white people from 1492-1900 are also dead now. So it is kind of evened out again.
The Native Americans also introduced the white devil to tobacco, so there goes another couple 100 million.
Lighten up Francis. There are more important things in life than the nickname of a sports team.
Like virtue signaling on the internet!
The burdens that some people have to bear …
“I’m completely angry about my irrelevance” would have been shorter.
No brainer. The Mets do not give up the 14th pick in the first round to sign a qualify offered free agent.
By the way, I think a Sabean/Bochy reunion in New York would be one of the best stories of the offseason. Just my personal opinion.
Lol I can’t stand Kumar rocker for making us deal with this situation…
Curious to see where he ends up.
Maybe they should have simply offered him what he wanted then. That was a simple solution
The simpler solution was not drafting him. The worst part was not drafting a bunch of HS guys who were hard to sign later on in the draft that you could throw money at instead of wasting the pool money and not signing anyone with it.
That’s always a double-edged sword. If you draft cheaper guys later, so you could use the savings for earlier picks, if you don’t sign the earlier pick, you lose out on both the earlier and later picks,
The Guardians lol what a joke.
Guardians of futility.
i call them GUARDIANS OF THE INDIANS, everyone should.
No one should.
Guardians of the longest streak without a World Series
The Gaurdians could always lean into it a bit by signing some key mashers from the “old guard”:
Bonds
Bonilla
Belle
Sosa
Bagwell
and of course Julio Franco.
It may not be pretty, but it’d be entertaining.
Now *that’s* funny. I could definitely get behind that.
I really hope international money gets eliminated from FA signing in the next CBA. I don’t believe the two should be connected. They’re two different avenues to add players to your team
The Mets are in a pickle here, that’s why they need to sign Baez, Thor and Stro, then go after Taylor, who will probably not receive a qualifying offer from the Dodgers, and/or Rosario who was acquired mid season by the Braves and is not tied to QO. Losing the 14th pick is not good baseball. The Mets need to build their farm system and giving away high picks is not the way to go.
The qualifying offer system is just about the dumbest thing I’ve ever heard of. I’ve always thought that this was dumb. being penalized for signing a high value player is stupid. shouldn’t we be incentivizing teams to sign good players?
Trying to force small market teams to sign expensive players will have exactly the opposite effect from what you think it will do. The best run small market team have established their niche by trading off players as they become expensive, and receiving under-priced prospects in return, as well as allowing good players to walk and receiving draft picks in return.
If not for this arrangement, TB & Oakland would have no chance of competing with big-market teams like the Yankees and Houston.
I honestly don’t have a handle on how to process this. The NYY have $471M in revenue, while TB has $167M in revenue (2020 revenue I believe). If both teams spent half their revenue on salary, the NYY would out-spend TB by $152M. if there were no countervailing processes in place, TB might as well shut down.
Ah, the comments section; where you never know if you’re going to get Dr Jeckyll or Mr Hyde, lol. It’s where everyone knows everything and everyone else is wrong. And God forbid you say anything that is actually wrong! You’ll be trashed like the kids trampled to death at a Who concert. Can we just chill out and comment like adults, please? Who cares about Trea Turner’s IL stints? I’m sure Trea Turner doesn’t even care. This is a cool time to see what other teams besides the lolmets screw up their chances to better their team for 2022, and see how the other teams like LAD and NYY will continue to overstack the odds in their favor. That, in itself, is our golden ticket for entertainment, folks. So let’s piss off all over the teams for their stupid off-season choices, instead of each other.