Even after the Royals’ work to put together a contending club in 2021 didn’t pan out, expect newly promoted president of baseball operations Dayton Moore and general manager J.J. Picollo to take another shot at adding some win-now pieces to complement a promising young core.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Salvador Perez, C: $82MM through 2025 (includes $2MM buyout of $13.5MM club option for 2026)
- Hunter Dozier, 1B/3B/OF: $21.75MM through 2024 (includes $1MM buyout of $10MM club option for 2025)
- Mike Minor, LHP: $11MM through 2022 (includes $1MM buyout of $13MM club option for 2023)
- Carlos Santana, 1B/DH: $10.5MM through 2022
- Michael A. Taylor, OF: $9MM through 2023
- Whit Merrifield, 2B/OF: $4MM through 2022 (includes $750K buyout of $6.5MM club option for 2023*)
- Total 2022 commitments: $50.5MM
- Total of all long-term commitments: $138.25MM
*The value of Merrifield’s 2023 option will increase to $10.5MM if he spends fewer than 109 days on the IL from 2019-22. He has not been on the injured list in that time (or at all in his MLB career).
Projected Salaries for Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Andrew Benintendi – $9.3MM
- Adalberto Mondesi – $3.2MM
- Jakob Junis – $1.8MM
- Brad Keller – $5.2MM
- Cam Gallagher – $900K
- Scott Barlow – $2.4MM
- Ryan O’Hearn – $1.4MM
- Nicky Lopez – $2.0MM
- Non-tender candidates: Junis, Gallagher, O’Hearn
Free Agents
- Greg Holland, Hanser Alberto, Wade Davis, Ervin Santana, Jesse Hahn, Scott Blewett
The Royals got a head-start on some offseason business in September. General manager Dayton Moore was promoted to president of baseball operations, while longtime assistant GM J.J. Piccolo was elevated to the title of general manager. The pair of title bumps helped the Royals to ensure that both well-regarded execs will remain with the club and avoid being considered for lateral moves (that would previously have represented promotions) with other organizations. Meanwhile, the team kept center fielder Michael A. Taylor from reaching the free-agent market by hammering out a two-year, $9MM extension.
Taylor, 31 in March, turned in a dismal .244/.297/.356 batting line (77 wRC+) but played center field at such a ridiculously high level that it really didn’t matter. The Royals loved the glove enough to give Taylor 528 plate appearances, and he rewarded them with 19 Defensive Runs Saved, a 13.3 Ultimate Zone Rating and 15 Outs Above Average — a mark that trailed only Tampa Bay’s Manuel Margot among all MLB outfielders.
The extension for Taylor preemptively answered the Royals’ center field question, and he’ll now return alongside left fielder Andrew Benintendi, who’s due one final arbitration raise. Benintendi no longer looks like the budding star we saw with the 2018 Red Sox, but he’s settled in as a slightly above-average bat and will give Kansas City a solid option for at least the 2022 season (if the team doesn’t look to further extend him this spring). Taylor and Benintendi can hold down two of three outfield spots, but the third is where the path moving forward becomes murkier.
Whit Merrifield and Hunter Dozier are both under contract for multiple seasons — Merrifield through at least 2022 with a 2023 club option, and Dozier through at least 2024 with a 2025 option. The former has been one of the game’s great bargains and a perennially unheralded star (at least relative to the acclaim he receives). The latter scuffled through a dismal 2021 showing that has made last March’s $25MM contract extension look regrettable.
Twenty-four-year-old Kyle Isbel also forced his way into the outfield conversation this year with a solid Triple-A showing (.269/.357/.444, 116 wRC+) and a torrid hot streak following a mid-September call to the Majors. In 47 plate appearances down the stretch, Isbel hit .286/.362/.524.
Isbel is purely an outfielder, but both Merrifield and Dozier can and have played in the outfield and infield extensively. Looking around the infield dirt, however, the picture is quite crowded. Top prospect Bobby Witt Jr. should seize the shortstop position before too long, and the Royals have already moved Adalberto Mondesi to third base in part to prepare for a potential position change. Nicky Lopez was a Gold Glove candidate at shortstop this year (another reason Mondesi moved to the hot corner) and has likely cemented his spot in next year’s infield mix — even if it means a move to second base.
Kansas City could split first base and designated hitter duties between Dozier and veteran Carlos Santana, with Merrifield taking the bulk of his reps in right field and Isbel getting more work in Triple-A. That might be a palatable option were it not for the looming arrival of another top prospect: first baseman Nick Pratto. The former first-round pick went from potential afterthought to potential building block with a ludicrous minor league season that saw him post a .265/.385/.602 batting line with 36 long balls between Double-A and Triple-A. He’s all but ready for an MLB look himself, and that’s where things get tougher.
First and foremost: Moore has made clear in the past that he has little interest in trading Merrifield. Although Merrifield has long been a player for whom rival fans (and surely rival clubs) have pined in trade scenarios, Kansas City extended him mid-rebuild and has never shown an inclination to move him. Now that Moore & Co. have shifted to a win-now mindset, Merrifield isn’t likely to suddenly be available — even with his club control dwindling.
That said, neither Dozier nor Santana is teeming with trade value. Dozier hit just .216/.285/.394 in 2021 and posted poor defensive marks at multiple positions. Santana was terrific through the season’s first two months before flopping with a .198/.287/.296 slash from June 1 through season’s end. The Royals could explore swapping out either for another sub-optimal contract, but it’s also possible that Dozier simply moves to a bench role and Kansas City hopes for a rebound from one or both. Dozier, after all, has played all four corner spots and finished the season on a big high note, hitting .272/.346/.576 from Sept. 1 onward.
The only other spot on the diamond yet to be addressed in this writing barely even needs mention. Salvador Perez’s 2021 campaign was one of the best by any catcher in Major League history, and he’ll return as the team’s linchpin behind the plate. Perhaps the Royals will explore the market for a veteran backup, as neither Cam Gallagher nor Sebastian Rivero inspires much confidence in the event of an untimely injury to Perez. Then again, both are passable backups — especially considering Perez’s ironman workload — and the Royals likely have a superior safety net waiting in the wings, should Perez require a prolonged stay on the injured list.
For all the attention (rightfully) placed on huge seasons for Witt and Pratto in Double-A and Triple-A, the Royals had a third overwhelming performance from a minor league hitter. Catching prospect MJ Melendez was not only in the Double-A and Triple-A lineups with Witt and Pratto the whole way — he actually outproduced both at the plate. In 531 plate appearances between those two levels, Melendez mashed at a combined .288/.386/.625 pace with 41 home runs. Selected just 38 picks after Pratto in 2017, Melendez joined in his draft-mate in flipping the narrative on that ’17 draft class in convincing fashion.
Unlike Pratto and Witt, however, Melendez doesn’t have a clear path to everyday at-bats moving forward. He could certainly operate as a designated hitter and part-time catcher, gradually increasing his workload behind the dish as Perez’s own workload decreases with age. That opportunity might not present itself until 2023, barring a deal to unload Santana, but it’s certainly one to which the Royals have to be open.
Alternatively, it’s inevitable that catching-needy clubs around the game will see a blocked catching prospect who just put the finishing touches on a mammoth minor league season and try to pry him loose. The Marlins, Astros, Rangers and perhaps the Yankees are all teams in need of long-term solutions behind the dish. This isn’t a situation where the Royals would use Melendez in order to shed a contract such as Santana, to be clear, but Kansas City will field plenty of interest in Melendez this winter. Miami, in particular, is teeming with young pitching it could offer the Royals.
Of course, the Royals have their own collection of impressive young arms on which they’ll rely moving forward. The 2021 Royals were the first team in Major League history to have five pitchers from the same draft class start a game for the team that drafted them (via Royals director of communications Nick Kappel, on Twitter). Brady Singer, Jackson Kowar, Daniel Lynch and Kris Bubic were Kansas City’s top four picks in 2018, and 18th-rounder Jon Heasley made his own MLB debut late in the season. Add breakout righty Carlos Hernandez, veteran Mike Minor, stalwart Brad Keller and righty Jakob Junis to the mix, and the Royals have some obvious depth before even making any additions.
That depth is nice, but it didn’t yield results for the Royals in 2021. Kansas City starters ranked 24th in the Majors with a 4.97 ERA. As was the case with Santana, Minor’s two-year deal failed to pay dividends. He soaked up a team-high 158 2/3 innings but did so with a 5.05 ERA. Fielding-independent metrics were more forgiving, but one has to imagine that the Royals would be open to finding a way to move Minor and the $11MM he’s still guaranteed ($10MM salary in 2022; $1MM buyout of a $13MM club option for 2023).
Looking to the homegrown arms, all four of Singer, Lynch, Kowar and Bubic previously ranked among the game’s top 100 prospects. Singer showed promise during his 2020 debut but took a step back in 2021 (128 1/3 innings, 4.91 ERA). Each of Bubic, Lynch and Kowar walked 10% or more of the hitters they faced and did so with below-average strikeout rates. Not every top-ranked pitching prospect dominates from day one — the vast majority do not, in fact — but it’s fair to say the Royals were probably hoping for better results from at least some of this group through this stage in their young careers.
Be that as it may, the Royals can still count themselves eight deep (if not more) in viable rotation options. They’ll be looking for some to take a step forward, but the fate of next year’s staff is largely dependent on the continued development of the young pitchers. There’s certainly room to add a veteran on a low-cost deal, but the hope will be that some combination of Singer, Bubic, Lynch, Kowar and Hernandez seizes at least a couple of long-term spots.
To recap: the Royals have three near-MLB top-100 prospects, with only one (Melendez) truly being blocked by a veteran. They have more infielders than infield spots available (in part due to underperformers Dozier and Santana), and they have more outfielders than outfield spots available. They’re also teeming with young starters who carry plenty of potential but have yet to piece things together.
It’s not hard to see why the front office is so bullish on the long-term outlook. However, the Royals need a lot of positive strides, from a development standpoint, for this group to be deemed a contender. They could opt for a quiet winter with regard to the lineup and the rotation, relying solely on internal development — or they could do what they did nearly a decade ago and condense some of this talent into more proven stars. It’s been almost nine years since the Royals acquired James Shields and Wade Davis in a trade that sent then-top prospects Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi to Tampa Bay, but the current Kansas City roster is in a somewhat comparable spot.
There’s virtually no scenario in which the Royals move Witt, and Pratto seems quite unlikely to be dealt himself. But with Melendez being blocked, a smorgasbord of young rotation hopefuls and perhaps players like Isbel or Mondesi lacking straightforward paths to playing time, there are multiple avenues for Moore, Picollo and the rest of the front office to explore.
In surprisingly candid fashion this summer, Moore indicated that the team simply can’t count on the wildly talented but oft-injured Mondesi as an everyday player, though he also emphasized the organization had no plans to give up on him. Still, with several other infield options and Mondesi now just two years from free agency, it stands to reason that other clubs will look into acquiring him. Suffice it to say, while the Royals may not be the most active team in the free-agent market, they’ll likely still be active in talks with other clubs around the league.
The one area of the club that this outlook has yet to address, of course, is the bullpen. Dominant relief pitching was a hallmark of the Royals’ 2014-15 World Series clubs, and the foundation for a similarly strong bullpen could be in place. Controllable, power-armed righties Scott Barlow and Josh Staumont had breakout years and positioned themselves as a formidable one-two punch in 2022 and beyond. Rookie southpaw Jake Brentz had a strong debut of his own and averaged 97 mph on his heater, but he’ll need to curb his 13.3% walk rate. Domingo Tapia and Dylan Coleman showed varying levels of promise.
That said, the bullpen is the most obvious area that the Royals could look to spend in free agency. Kansas City is projected for just shy of $87MM in payroll next season (using Swartz’s arbitration projections), and that number could fall with some non-tenders looking quite likely. The Royals have just $33MM on the books in 2023. It’d still be a shock to see them play at the very top of the relief market (i.e. Raisel Iglesias), but any of the second-tier options thereafter (Kendall Graveman, Corey Knebel, etc.) could easily fit into the Royals’ payroll. Putting together a deep bullpen will only take pressure off the young arms in the rotation.
The 2021 season didn’t go as Moore and his staff hoped when dipping back into the free-agent market last winter, but it’s still hard to look at all of the talent on the horizon in Kansas City and not believe better days are ahead. The Royals can afford to make a splash or two in the bullpen. Their growing crop of young talent and considerable payroll space gives them ample leverage to take a bigger swing on the trade market if the opportunity presents itself.
Why is Mondesi always injured? He’s such a good player when in the lineup. Maybe shift him to the outfield.
Lol
I believe the Royals are well on their way to being competitive for a while. The AL Central may be on the way to being very interesting with the Tigers also showing signs of improvement.
Agreed. Maybe they will be back in the WS by 2024/25.
Even when Merrifield’s escalator kicks in making his 2023 option $10.5M, he’s still wildly underpaid. If he hit the open market after ‘22 he’d probably be looking at 4/75 at a minimum. Due to his age he’ll probably be a lifer along with Perez, but his agent has to be dreaming of what might have been.
I disagree on the lifer piece. He’ll be 35 going into free agency and probably wanting maximize whatever earnings he can get after this low extension
Your logic is sound except you forgot the Royals are run by Dayton Moore. Rightly or wrongly, he puts an immense value on relationships and on leadership. No way Whit walks.
I love that option escalator for Whit
I don’t understand the high regard some hold for Merrifield. He’ll be 33 next year and is coming off a 91 OPS+ and has a career OPS+ of 105. He’s versatile, and an excellent fielder, but I wouldn’t invest a lot in his future at this age.
Me neither, but between you and me I’m flat broke.
A versatile, 35 year old 2nd baseman/outfielder was one of the most vital parts of the 2015 world championship team. Given his late start and his history of being injury free Merrifield is likely to age well. He’s also an excellent baserunner (40 out of 44 in SB this season) and by far the best situational hitter on the team…but there’s no fancy acronym for that so I suppose it doesn’t count.
Now remember this new age doesn’t count stolen bases or look at them anymore lol. Me myself give me them slap gap hitters with speed any day over a 1 for 5 with 4 k,s.
Whit debuted in 2016.
He was referring to Ben Zobrist
How long is “before too long” for Bobby Witt Jr. Don’t see the Royals much, just curious.
Well I do know that we probably will need someone for third base because I don’t think Emmanuel Rivera is an option there and Hunter Dozier will probably be in right field occasionally with a Start or two at first and a start or two at third. Speculation is Bobby Witt JR. would be playing third base if Nicky Lopez sticks at shortstop, unless Mondesi can stay healthy and Nicky is off the bench to play second or shortstop as a back up. Nicky Lopez was Snubbed on a gold glove nomination at SS, so I don’t know if he’ll be shortstop in 2022 or not.
it seems a little bit awkward to me that the author would not at least mention the possibility of non-tendering Benintendi…simply because as they said he is slightly above average bat, but is going to cost upwards of $10M for a thrifty org. Are you sure the Royals are comfortable paying him like 1/8th or so of their salaries; a decent OF bat.
I think a lot of it has to do with being in the final 3 for golden glove LF. Put that on top of above average bat makes him worth it. Royals always place defense over offense
Benintendi was a solid player and clutch player. The contract to Dozier was a JOKE. Nobody in MLB even Preller or Daniels aren’t that dumb. Santana had a bad hip hopefully a bounce back candidate. Mondesi is best suited not to be counted on I agree.
Beni was a tale of two seasons. He was virtually unplayable for a month or two and the went on the DL and when he came back he was an excellent hitter through the end of the season. Aggregate numbers don’t always tell the whole story.
Agree about the Dozier contract.
The guy is below average at both 3B and RF on a team that stresses defense. He reminds me so much of Casey Blake – in his later years a nice piece to add to a contending team looking for a part-time role player, before that a guy that ate up innings on poor teams. Not a building bock coming out of a rebuild.
Dayton Moore is my favorite MLB FO baseball head. But starting with the long-term signing of Ian Kennedy in 2016 as a starter, I’ve begun to question his moves. In what world does Hunter Dozier rate a better contract than Whit Merrifield? And on a team that stresses OF D due to Kaufman’s spacious OF, why is Ryan O’Hearn playing in RF? – it’s as bad as Dom Smith playing LF in Citi Field?
OK, I understand – this rebuild was based on pitching. Then again, while Cal Eldred is a respected veteran pitching coach, he’s been getting poor results with the Royals youngsters. Eldred seems to be like Larry Rothschild was for his last 2-3 years with the Yankees – a guy that young pitching coaches around the league passed, understanding how to use state-of-the-art equipment in their development. And while I liked Mike Matheny as a Catcher and looked foreword to him as a Manager, he’s been disappointing.
Witt, Jr. should have a nice affect on team this year, and Lopez surprised everyone at SS last year and deserves 2B if Witt takes over SS. Salvy is – and has been – an effective team leader. But I don’t see the talent or the spark I saw in the up-and-coming Royals in 2013-15. I think the Royals will be a better team in the next few years, but the Sox are good with a HOF manger, and the Tigers are coming fast and will contend for at least 5 years. The Guardians need one more year in their ‘rebuild on the fly’ before I see them beginning to field a playoff contending team. Unless the Royals make great strides in 2022, I think they get passed in the AL Central and this rebuild will go down as a poor one.
Casey Blake had a pretty solid stretch for awhile that was probably overshadowed by the extreme 3b depth during the time frame he played
No shame if he can be a Blake
Strangely enough, Blake was once traded for Carlos Santana.
I would never say never on Daniels being that dumb. He is that dumb.
I’d non tender Gallagher and O’Hearn, try and trade Santana away for a bad relief pitcher contract while also kicking the tires on a few relievers on short term contracts. NPB closer Scott McGough could probably set up for the Royals.
Santana had such a huge second half dropoff. He had a .804 OPS right before the ASG just to finish with an OPS below .700.
He also was dealing with trying to play with an injury. I don’t know what’s going to happen with him. he could be thrown in a trade with Mike minor for all we know. That is if they decided to trade Mike minor. Or Santana could end up being a part time DH and Nick Pratto is starting first baseman by May 1.
I knew Hunter Dozier had a bad year, but bwar of -2.6 is impressive.
A lot of that came from the fact he was an extremely poor defender at third base (though that’s not to say his bat was worth anything). FanGraphs has him at -.2, so they’re much less harsh on him. But this was the second time in his career he had a -2+ bWAR.
@ mlb1225;
I agree with what you wrote.
Carrying it further – Dozier has been a poor 3B since they brought him up, and while not as bad in RF, he’s still poor.
He only had one year where he hit decently. Mostly he’s lived off of getting some HR’s and doubles. But this past year his OBP slipped as well, so the other stats that include OBP in them slipped quite a bit as well.
Kaufman Stadium is large – I believe it’s the biggest playing field in MLB. Dozier might be better off playing a corner OF in a bandbox like the Phillies or Reds have. It would mask his deficiencies as an OF some, and he could get more HR’s.
They need to get creative with a team willing to take Santana off their hands so they can sign a solid veteran for their rotation. Maybe work something out with the Yankees for Voit. Santana always hits better with a lot of protection. He seems to play better when he doesn’t have so much pressure to produce. The Yankees lineup would be the perfect place for his bat. It would take a good prospect to make that happen though. I would like to see how Voit would do on a team like the Royals. They should be interesting to watch the next few months. Moore has shown in the past with the Kennedy contract and the Shields trade that he isn’t afraid to pull the trigger for what he feels is the missing piece. Even when the rest of baseball doesn’t agree like with the Gordon contract.
No need to get Voit when we have Nick Pratto waiting.
Dayton Moore quite possibly the worst GM is MLB history. Yes I know KC won a World Series. In 16 years 2 yes 2 winning seasons. Unreal he has a job still
He has 3 winning seasons but if not for that 3 year run he would have been out a long time ago.
Always rooted for MAT…… he always seemed to be the odd man out in Washington no matter the circumstances. Glad he’s found a home
I’m just over here looking for when Mondesi has ever demonstrated that he’s “wildly talented.” Outside of a good 2017 AAA season, I just don’t see it.
15/16 on SB attempts even in an injury riddled season isnt a testament to one’s talent? and when healthy he can hit for a decent average and isnt a power vacuum.
If Mondesi played 140 games he could easily hit .270 with 20 homers and 40 SB.
Key word in that sentence is “IF”.
I’m not too worried about the starting pitchers. If you look at the first two season stats of pitchers like Smoltz, Glavine, Greinke, etc. they scuttled before figuring it out. I believe at least 2 if not 3 of Lynch, Singer, Hernandez, Bubic, and Kowar will be above average pitchers.
As much as I like Mondesi he just hasn’t shown he can stay healthy. This coming year might be his last chance with the Royals. I would keep him as a bench piece this year. You never know about injuries or regression with Lopez and Merrifield or Witt might struggle upon promotion. The best trade candidate is definitely Santana. Hopefully he has a good April and May so that the Royals can get some value for him.
I think the Royals start DHing Perez more this year in order to keep his bat in the lineup. 90-110 games at catcher will definitely extend his career while giving some time to Melendez. I wouldn’t call Melendez or Pratto up until after June though so that they can get more time in at AAA.
@ Tdat1979;
I understand that young players do not progress at a linear rate upon entering the major leagues….especially pitchers. And I agree that all of the Royals 5 starters will not prove to be stars. It’s a numbers game.
But what I brought up with Keller should be a warning sign. Both Keller and pitching coach Cal Eldred came to the Royals in 2018. Keller has gotten consistently worse. That’s 4 years to “figure it out”, not two. Additionally, I cannot think of a Royals starter since 2018 that developed into a quality ML pitcher…..there sure has to be one somewhere. OK, maybe they never had the talent to start. But the only relief pitcher I see on the Royals that was sort of a starter (mostly in the minors early in his career) is Kyle Zimmer.
It’s easy to point a finger at the pitching coach, and Eldred is a concern. Going further, Matheny was not terribly successful bringing along pitchers during his managerial tenure with the Cardinals. But consider that the WS Royals of 2015-16 lived off of their 3 lights-out back-end bullpen pitchers. Shields was their ace (hardly a dominant starter), and they traded for a few established starters as they made their championship push. Duffy hung around for a long time and had a few decent stretches – but he never developed into a TOR starter. Then there was the outrageous contract to Ian Kennedy, who finally had to be converted to a reliever.
My point is that this Royals rebuild is based on pitching. Yet the Royals organization has a dismal record in developing pitchers the past 10-12 years. This is made worse by the fact that next to Yadi, Salvy has been the best handler of pitchers in MLB since Salvy came up in 2011.
Playing in a large park and stressing D should have helped Royals pitchers. It hasn’t. It appears that there is something wrong with the Royals pitching philosophies and the way they work with their pitchers.
True. Royals have been horrible drafting pitchers the last 20 years ( much like the Chiefs and quarterbacks until Mahomes). The only ace they’ve drafted has been Greinke. Ashe Russell, Foster Griffin, Nolan Watson have done nothing. Others ended up in the bullpen or as #5 starters (Luke Hochever, Aaron Crow, Mike Montgomery, Brandon Finnigan, Kyle Zimmer). Only Sean Manaea has had any kind of success, though not much. Hopefully, that pattern can change.
It does not currently look like this rebuild is going well. Under performance has left no young player written into their future in anything but pencil. It could change quickly, much like it did in Detroit. Right now their best hope is still in the minors, which has me thinking win-now moves this off season is premature. They have some good players but Perez is really the only All-Star caliber player. Benetendi and Merrifield are likely the only starters on other teams. The rest are bench players. What they have in their young pitchers is yet to be fully seen, but below average strikeout rates is quite concerning.