With the League Championship Series having kicked off tonight, we’re moving ever closer to the offseason. With free agency approaching, MLBTR has taken a position-by-position look at the options who’ll be available on the open market.
Today, we turn our attention to the corner outfield. Essentially all of the center field-capable players on the market could presumably cover the corners if necessary. (Starling Marte, for instance, has already shown himself to be more than capable of handling left field). Still, we’ve already covered the center fielders in-depth, so we’ll look only at players who have recently spent a significant amount of time in the corner outfield for purposes of this post.
Everyday Options
Kris Bryant (30 next April): Bryant has shown enough athleticism to handle both corner infield positions and cover anywhere on the outfield, although he’s better suited in a corner than in center field. Advanced defensive metrics suggest he struggled to adapt to the spacious right field at Oracle Park after a midseason trade from the Cubs to the Giants, but he’s generally rated as a fine outfielder over the course of his career.
Wherever he were to play, teams will be in on Bryant this winter for his bat. He broke into the majors with five consecutive elite hitting seasons, including a 2016 campaign in which he won the NL MVP award. Bryant struggled in last year’s shortened season, but he bounced most of the way back in 2021. Over 586 plate appearances, the 29-year-old hit .265/.353/.481 with 25 homers, drawing walks and hitting for power at above-average rates. The midseason trade renders him ineligible for a qualifying offer.
Kyle Schwarber (29): Bryant’s former Cub teammate, Schwarber’s time in Chicago ended a year early when he was non-tendered last winter after a down 2020. The former top five pick rebounded with a career-best showing at the plate in 2021, combining for a .266/.374/.554 line between the Nationals and Red Sox. Schwarber popped 32 homers in just 471 plate appearances (he missed more than a month midseason because of a hamstring strain), backed up by batted ball metrics that are among the most impressive in the sport.
Schwarber’s not a strong defender. He’s played almost exclusively in left field over the past few seasons, picking up a bit of time at first base down the stretch in Boston. Defensive metrics have pegged his range as well below-average in left — although he’s offset some of that with a strong arm. And Schwarber does strike out a fair amount, but his combination of power and patience makes him one of the more impactful bats available this winter. Like Bryant, he’s ineligible for a QO by virtue of a midseason trade.
Michael Conforto (29): Conforto entered the season as one of the top players in this winter’s class. With a typical season, he’d have had a very strong case to land a nine figure deal. Instead, Conforto posted his worst numbers since 2016, hitting .232/.344/.384 over 479 trips to the plate. That’s a far cry from his .261/.365/.478 line between 2018-20.
Conforto’s down year comes in spite of a career-low strikeout rate, a typically strong walk percentage, and batted ball metrics not too dissimilar from prior seasons. That disconnect between his seemingly still-strong process but his far less impressive results makes Conforto one of the tougher free agents to pin down this winter. The Mets are reportedly planning to offer him a QO.
Chris Taylor (31): Taylor has moved all over the diamond for the Dodgers, spending the bulk of this season in center field and at second base but also appearing at both corner outfield spots and third base.
Taylor has been a bit unheralded on a Dodgers’ roster loaded with superstars (at least until his heroics in last week’s Wild Card game), but he’s been a consistently above-average hitter with passable defensive marks virtually everywhere he plays. He strikes out a fair amount, but he also hits for power, walks and consistently runs high batting averages on balls in play. His bat cooled off in the second half after a scorching start to the season, but Taylor’s track record and versatility make him a likely qualifying offer recipient and candidate to land a strong three or four-year contract. MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald recently broke down Taylor’s impending free agency at greater length.
Mark Canha (33): Canha has been an underrated, quality performer for the past few seasons. He’s not a particularly flashy player with eye-popping tools, but Canha’s well-rounded game leads to quietly strong results year after year. He draws plenty of walks, strikes out at a league average clip and hits for solid power despite playing in a pitcher-friendly home ballpark. Canha has been at least fifteen percentage points above league average offensively in each of the past four seasons by measure of wRC+. He had a very strong first half, although his batted ball metrics and power results cratered following a late-June hip injury.
Canha’s age — he turns 33 in February — and late-season power outage figure to have an adverse effect on his earning power. But Canha’s a quality offensive player, a good hitter without obvious drawbacks at the plate. He’s not a great fit in center field, but he can cover the middle in a pinch and typically rates as a fine option in the corners. Teams that don’t want to play at the top of the outfield market could view Canha as a strong fallback, particularly since it seems highly unlikely the low-budget A’s would make him a qualifying offer.
Jorge Soler (30): Soler’s overall results the past two seasons are underwhelming. He’s a bat-only player with a .224/.319/.435 line since the start of 2020, and both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference pegged him as below replacement level this past season. But that two-year sample ignores a 2019 campaign in which Soler mashed a league-best 48 home runs, and he’s looked reinvigorated since a deadline day trade to the Braves.
In 242 plate appearances with Atlanta down the stretch, Soler hit at .269/.358/.524 clip with fourteen homers. He’s slashed his strikeout rate to just 18.6% with the Braves after a dismal start to the year in Kansas City. Soler’s also relatively young, turning 30 in February, and annually has among the league’s top exit velocities and hard contact rates. Teams could see Soler’s second half resurgence as an indicator he’s rediscovered his peak form, but his 2020 and first half struggles raise some questions as well.
Tommy Pham (34): Pham was one of the game’s more underrated players for a few seasons with the Cardinals and Rays. He combined power, elite patience and enough athleticism to play a strong left field into a quality overall profile. Those underlying skills are still in play, as Pham almost never chases pitches outside the strike zone and continues to make hard contact at an above-average clip. That said, Pham’s results in San Diego haven’t matched those of prior seasons. He’s hitting .226/.335/.370 over the past two years, although it’s fair to wonder whether he’s been fully healthy. Pham missed a month last season after fracturing the hamate bone in his left hand, and his offseason and Spring Training routines were disrupted this year after he was stabbed in the lower back last October.
Platoon/Time-Share/Depth Options
Corey Dickerson (33): Dickerson has a long track record of above-average offense, carrying solid numbers between a few different spots. He’s only been around league average at the dish over the past two years, though, likely setting him up for a one-year deal this winter. Dickerson makes a lot of contact and hits for high batting averages, but it comes without a ton of walks and his power numbers have dropped off recently. He had one outlier season with elite defensive marks that earned him a Gold Glove award, but Dickerson typically rates as an average left fielder.
Joc Pederson (29): Pederson was a middle-of-the-order caliber bat during his best days with the Dodgers — at least against right-handed pitching. But he’s posted below-average offensive numbers in each of the last two seasons, and his career numbers against lefties are very poor. Pederson has been solid for the Braves since they picked him up at the trade deadline, and he’s popped a couple key postseason home runs. He brings power from the left side, but Pederson’s lack of production against southpaws probably limits him to a corner platoon role this winter.
Eddie Rosario (30): Rosario has had a Soler-esque turnaround following a midseason trade to the Braves. He hit just .254/.296/.389 over 306 plate appearances with the Indians, but turned things around to post a .271/.330/.573 mark in 106 plate appearances with Atlanta. Rosario’s general track record falls somewhere in the middle, as he typically posts slightly above-average production at the plate. The left-handed hitter doesn’t walk much and he’s not a great defender, but he has a strong combination of bat-to-ball skills and power.
Yoshi Tsutsugo (30): Tsutsugo didn’t live up to expectations with the Rays, who inked him to a two-year, $12MM deal following a starring career in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. However, the left-handed hitter popped eight homers in just 144 plate appearances after latching on with the Pirates late in the season. That strong couple months could make him an intriguing buy-low power bat this offseason. Tsutsugo’s primarily a first baseman, but he also lined up in both corner outfield spots this year and has a bit of experience at third base.
Dexter Fowler (36): Fowler lost almost the entire season after tearing his left ACL in April. He still reached base at a strong clip (.238/.346/.409) during his last extended run of play in 2019, but he’ll be 36 years old by next Opening Day and is coming off a significant knee injury.
Juan Lagares (33): A former Gold Glove winning center fielder with the Mets, Lagares got quite a bit of action with the Angels this season across all three outfield spots. He’s probably looking at minor league offers this winter after hitting just .236/.266/.372.
Gerardo Parra (34): Parra made a late-season return to the Nationals, hitting just .237/.292/.351 in 107 trips to the plate. He’s a respected veteran clubhouse presence, but he hasn’t had an above-average hitting season since 2015.
Abraham Almonte (32): Almonte has gotten brief looks at the big league level in each of the past nine seasons, never serving as a true regular. He drew plenty of walks this year with the Braves but only hit .216 and rated poorly in his limited showing defensively. He was outrighted off the roster last month.
Josh Reddick (35): Reddick earned a big league shot with the D-Backs in May after signing a minor league deal over the winter. He hit a career-worst .258/.285/.371 over 158 plate appearances with Arizona before being released. Reddick signed a minor league deal with the Mets thereafter but didn’t get back to the majors. He’s likely limited to minors offers again this winter.
Matt Joyce (37): Joyce was a productive lefty bench bat as recently as 2020, but he didn’t hit at all in a limited showing with the Phillies this year before being released. At his best, he offers a little bit of pop and draws plenty of walks.
Gregory Polanco (30): Polanco looked to be emerging as a star in 2018, but he’s struggled mightily over the past three seasons. The Pirates released him in late August. He went on an absolute tear (.374/.436/.747 over 101 plate appearances) with the Blue Jays’ Triple-A affiliate after signing a minor league deal but couldn’t crack a loaded Toronto lineup. Polanco will be an interesting offseason flier, presumably on another minors pact.
Mike Tauchman (31): Tauchman still drew plenty of walks this season, but he struck out at a huge 30.4% clip between the Yankees and Giants. His big power numbers from 2019 now look like an outlier.
José Marmolejos (29): Marmolejos had a great season with the Mariners’ Triple-A affiliate, but that didn’t carry over to the big leagues. The first baseman/corner outfielder hit just .160/.262/.311 over 122 MLB plate appearances before being outrighted.
Adam Eaton (33): Eaton split this season between the White Sox and Angels but hit only .201/.282/.327 in 288 cumulative plate appearances. He was eventually outrighted off both teams’ rosters.
Nomar Mazara (26): The Tigers’ dart throw that Mazara could yet unlock his offensive potential didn’t pan out. He hit .212/.276/.321 before being released. Mazara’s a household name and one-time top prospect, but he’s simply never hit at the level many anticipated.
Jason Martin (26): Martin was once fairly well-regarded as a prospect but his bat stalled out in the high minors. A strong Triple-A showing this year earned him his most extended MLB look with the Rangers, but he hit just .208/.248/.354 at the highest level and was outrighted off the roster.
Utility Infielders/Outfielders
Josh Harrison (34): Harrison initially looked to be tailing off as he entered his 30’s, but he’s played quite well two years running. Over 558 plate appearances between the Nationals and A’s, he hit .279/.341/.400 with a tiny 13.4% strikeout rate. He earned Oakland’s regular second base job down the stretch and might have earned himself an everyday role somewhere on the diamond this offseason. Harrison doesn’t walk or hit for much power, but he puts the ball in play, can cover multiple positions and would bring a respected veteran presence to a clubhouse.
Brad Miller (32): Miller bounces all around the diamond, spending most of this year on the corners. He’s a bat-first player who hit a solid .227/.321/.453 with 20 homers in 377 plate appearances for the Phillies. He’s a nice left-handed power bat to have off the bench.
Leury García (31): García has had a nice few seasons on the South Side of Chicago. He’s a switch-hitting utilityman who can cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. García doesn’t hit for power or draw many walks, but he makes a fair amount of contact and has been right around league average offensively over the past couple seasons.
Ehire Adrianza (32): Adrianza’s a capable glove-first utilityman. He’s worked in a reserve capacity for essentially his entire career, posting decent strikeout and walk numbers with little power.
Marwin González (33): González hit just .201/.281/.285 before the Red Sox cut him loose. He popped three homers in 36 plate appearances since re-signing with Houston, but he only posted a .222 OBP in his second stint as an Astro. That’s two consecutive miserable seasons for González, who followed up an outstanding 2017 campaign with back-to-back league average seasons before dropping off substantially since the start of 2020.
Jake Lamb (31): Lamb was a productive regular with the D-Backs from 2016-17, but his production has dipped since he underwent shoulder surgery in 2018. He split this past season between the White Sox and Blue Jays, playing all four corner positions while hitting .194/.306/.368.
Players With Options
Nick Castellanos (30): Castellanos seems all but certain to opt out of the remaining two years and $34MM on his current deal with the Reds. He’ll have a real case for a nine figure contract on the open market after a huge season in which he hit .309/.362/.576 with 34 home runs in 585 plate appearances.
Castellanos perennially rates among the league’s better hitters in terms of average exit velocity and hard contact rate, and he struck out in a career-low 20.7% of his trips to the dish this year. He’s a subpar defender whose market would be aided by the adoption of a designated hitter in the National League, but there’ll be plenty of demand for a hitter of Castellanos’ caliber.
Avisaíl García (30): García tallied enough plate appearances to vest the right to test free agency this offseason. He’s likely to do so, forgoing his end of a $12MM mutual option with the Brewers. García has long intrigued teams with huge physical tools and flashes of productivity. His performance has been up-and-down over the course of his career, but he’s coming off one of his best years.
García hit .262/.330/.490 with 29 homers over 515 plate appearances with Milwaukee. He typically posts above-average batted ball metrics, and his production this season (unlike that of his personal-best 2017 campaign) wasn’t driven by an unsustainably high batting average on balls in play. García presents a challenging evaluation for teams, since he’s an obviously talented player coming off a very good showing but with an inconsistent career resume.
J.D. Martinez (34): Martinez is primarily a designated hitter, but he still moonlights in the corner outfield on occasion. Regardless of his defensive limitations, it’s tough to downplay his impact on an offense. Martinez was one of the sport’s best hitters over a six-year stretch from 2014-19. He’s no longer quite at that level, but Martinez bounced back from a down 2020 to hit .286/.349/.518 with 28 homers in 634 plate appearances. That sets up an interesting decision, as he’ll have to determine whether to return to Boston on a $19.35MM salary in 2022 or trigger an opt-out clause and test free agency.
Andrew McCutchen (35): The Phillies have a $15MM club option on McCutchen’s services for 2022. There’s a $3MM buyout figure, making that a net $12MM decision. It wouldn’t be shocking if the Phils picked it up, but that seems unlikely. McCutchen’s a respected veteran who’s had an illustrious career, and he still has points in his favor. He popped 27 home runs and walked at a massive 14.1% clip en route to slightly above-average offensive numbers. His batting averages have dipped as he’s gotten more pull-heavy, though, and McCutchen rates as a well below-average defensive left fielder at this stage of his career.
Kole Calhoun (34): The D-Backs hold a $9MM club option on Calhoun’s services for 2022. That comes with a $2MM buyout, meaning it’s a $7MM call. That’ll probably prove too pricy for an Arizona team that’ll want to get looks at some younger players after a disastrous 2021 season. Calhoun popped 16 homers and slugged .526 in last year’s shortened schedule, but he struggled offensively (.235/.297/.373) this year while dealing with a seemingly recurring left hamstring issue.
Brett Gardner (38): Gardner has a player option valued at $2.3MM. If he declines, the Yankees have a team option valued at $7.15MM with a buyout of $1.15MM. It seems unlikely the Yankees would exercise their option after Gardner hit at a slightly below-average level (.222/.327/.362) this season. But Gardner still draws plenty of walks, and he’s one of the better defensive left fielders of his generation and a capable if imperfect fit in center field at this stage of his career.
It’s difficult to imagine the career-long Yankee playing elsewhere, although it remains to be seen if he considers the player option salary enough of an upgrade over the buyout figure he’d collect if the Yankees don’t exercise their end.
Kevin Pillar (33): Pillar’s contract with the Mets contains a $2.9MM player option for 2022. If he declines, the Mets would have to either exercise a $6.4MM club option or buy him out for $1.4MM. The question for Pillar, then, is whether he wants to lock in $2.9MM or take his chances with the buyout and hope to make up the $1.5MM on the open market.
Pillar’s no longer the elite defender he was at his peak, but he’s still capable of playing all three outfield spots. He hit for a decent amount of power this season, popping 15 homers in 347 plate appearances, but he only walked 3.2% of the time and reached base at a paltry .277 clip.
Charlie Blackmon (35): Blackmon has already gone on record to say he’ll exercise his $21MM player option for next season. He returns to Colorado on the heels of a .270/.351/.411 showing.
Jurickson Profar (29): Profar surprisingly landed a three-year, $21MM guarantee from the Padres last winter on the heels of a strong 2020 showing. He didn’t managed to follow-up on that success, though, hitting just .227/.329/.320 through 412 plate appearances. It’s hard to envision Profar opting out after this season, particularly since his contract allows him to opt out at the end of next year too.
Previous installments in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field
Overall outside of starting pitching and shortstop, not a good year to be looking to improve your team in free agency. This is good news for Marte I guess.
@The Mets… I can reply to the top comment… it must just be you.
I can’t reply to it either. Just says “flag” or “mute”, no “reply”.
Wow. So Cosmo2, Marlins Fan Base and I all got muted by the same dude? That guy must discriminate pretty hard with who he mutes for 3 of the very first people to reply all to be muted. My guess is it’s a lot more than that. I didn’t know muting someone would prevent them from being able to reply to you. I just figured it meant that they couldn’t see the replies. Hey Cosmo2, I wonder if he can see our replies to his replies. I wouldn’t know. I’ve never muted anyone. Even if I disagree with someone I want to hear their opinion. Everyone is entitled to an opinion. That’s good to know though. Now I can tell which commenters have muted me. So far he’s the only one. I’ll make sure to say stuff I know he can’t read now since he has rendered himself defenseless. Lol. J/k. I don’t know anything about the guy.
Heh, yea it’s weird, I don’t know how all this works…. I’ve never muted anybody either.
Unrelated but if you want a good laugh go take a look at the article on Kike Hernandez signing with Redsox.
And it’s never a good year to improve your team through free agency. Usually mistakes in free agency are the reasons why teams can’t stay competitive.
The next CBA the mlbpa should allow more incentive type terms to contracts. All these Ivy League guys are too smart to pay older players for multiple years so allow them to negotiate incentive based deals. Specifically the platoon guys will benefit. Instead of Brad Miller signing for minor league deal this offseason, he seeks out whoever gives him the biggest incentive to hit another 20 hrs in limited at bats. This way players aren’t so underpaid if they overachieve.
Probably will never happen but if you’re the type of fan who thinks players are overpaid and don’t think they try hard all the time then watching a guy the last week of the season trying to hit 2 more hrs (or whatever stat they need) would add to the excitement of the game.
Maybe he muted everyone. Maybe he just wants to read the articles and comment on them without any conversation. Seems a little peculiar but who knows. It’s difficult to conjecture what’s happening based on this one post that doesn’t want replies.
Definitely a weak class
Hoping Conforto doesn’t end up on the IL signing the contract.
Why won’t it let us reply to the top comment? It only allows “like (or thumbs up), “Flag” or “Mute.” We can reply to every other comment though. Is that happening with everyone else or just me right now?
I am seeing the same thing. I’m not sure how that happens unless that account is a MLBTR staffer/writer/troll.
You have been muted by that user, so you cannot reply to them. C’est la vie.
I guess I’ve been muted too since I can’t reply. Odd, I don’t post that often.
Is there a mute all button somewhere?
Apparently we all have been muted
I suppose it’s a moot point.
Id imagine you’ve been muted by several top commenters here.
BTW, people mute you because you incessantly post 1400 word “articles” in response to everything. I would bet 95 percent of the readers, see the Missed war guy, and scroll right past because we just read the article from the real writers on this site, we certainly don’t need his 13 paragraph breakdown. And it’s every article, within in 5 minutes of it being up. Dude is seriously locked in his parents basement. Someone help him.
Man, that’s terrible Mets War guy! What are you going to do?! I’m sure not being able to write a 6 paragraph response to the top commenter is going to ruin your whole weekend. Don’t worry bud. You can still write a super annoying 9 paragraph comment on the next post, and no will read it there either.
I can’t post on the top comment either. I can’t remember ever posting anything good, bad or neutral toward fffbbb though I acknowledge that if I offended someone it wouldn’t be unusual for the offending party to have no idea. Still, it seems strange that all of us are muted by this particular poster.
There’s a word for posting comments on a public messageboard and not wanting to see or receive a response from anyone: Narcissism
It takes a lot for me to mute anyone, basically only those who come after me with personal insults or lie about what I’ve written. Other than that, it’s all good.
SalaryCap & Fever Pitch Guy: I agree with you both, but just look at the user name. Ffffbbb? Gosh, that’s super ingenious…..
I don’t mute because I think it’s important to get different views, whether I like them or not. I just scroll past those comments I would prefer not to read. Heck, I haven’t even muted Cey Hey! That’s saying a lot.
Clipper – Cey Hey is one of the very few I’ve muted. LOL
Funny that you guys, Yankee Clipper and Fever Pitch Guy, both mentioned Cey Hey because that’s the only poster who I know has muted me.
I replied just to see if I could and I am not muted, now I can continue to live my life
The rest of us are doomed to spend our lives wondering why fffbbb only loves you and doesn’t love us. =))
Hang in there brother, it gets better
Castellanos… “He’s a subpar defender “. To think you guys called him “Unplayable” in the outfield only a year ago.
Baby steps
Great book by Leo Marvin
LOL
Remember when Tommy Pham said he was one of the best players in the league? Funny times.
To be fair, he couldn’t see the other players…
LaCock is a real LaCook
How original of you. I assume you’re a Padres fan, so that would make sense.
No sense publishing this list, since Rickets said the Cubs will sign everyone.
Lol, nice! Or, he meant he would exercise a lot. He only said active, he didn’t say sign anyone.
Interesting. Not any special players in the corner OF spots, but guys that can fill teams that are looking to just add solid pieces. Marlins will very likely add one of these guys to fill a void in the OF and getting support for the middle of the lineup.
Randal Grichuk should be available from the Jays.
Maybe Marlinsfanbase will feel different but I would rather take a chance on Schwarbers health or a bounce back from Conforto.
@iverbure I’m sure Grichuk is very avail but Marlins aren’t going to pick up that’s contract and he’s coming off a very subpar year.
Wonder if Giants resign Bryant.
He’s been really good for them and I’m really impressed with his versatility. I could see him getting multiple offers, but it wouldn’t surprise me if he stayed there.
Giants is a really good spot for Bryant, I believe they make s big push to bring him back.
I was really pulling for the giants. That check swing was bullshitto
I’m all in on Soler, but he might get high offers from another team if he has a good CS and/or WS. If Soler walks, I wouldn’t mind Chris Taylor. Duvall needs to go.
Joc, they need to bring back. It will be absolutely stupid not to.
The hell? Get rid of the nl rbi leader and keep joc? Come on.
This guy would pilot the Braves directly into the ground, do not take stock in what he says
Duvall really isn’t that good. His season is living proof that RBIs are a terrible measure of actual player talent.
I’ll take Castellanos, his bat and the two errors he committed this season all day long…not too damn bad for a subpar defender. Math isn’t everything when it comes to the game…
He’s a terrible defender, math or no math.
It’s the balls he doesn’t get to that limit his defense. He’s solid on the balls hit his way. But of course his bat more than makes up for the iffy D.
Total errors are a poor indicator of fielding prowess. A better fielder can make more errors because he fields more balls. If I can cover more ground and 3 balls bounce out of my glove all season is that worse than allowing balls to drop for hits? Keep that in mind when I get to it in my cons.
Castellanos’ pros are obvious, Here are his cons:
His BB% was never great and 2021 (7%) was no exception.
Great American Ball Park is a band box and his H/A OPS spilts are troubling. 1.109 (H) .772 (A)
He turns 30 next season and anything more than 3 years would be risky.
His D still sucks. Here are his Statcast numbers (percentiles):
Sprint Speed: 65% (good)
Outfielder Jump 7% (no es bueno)
Outs Above Avg 5% (putrid)
In addition to his H/A splits, there are red lights flashing from Statcast (percentiles):
Whiff% 15
Chase Rate 5
Horrible numbers that will likely get worse with age.
Caveat Emptor
Man you guys really do your best to take the fun right out of the game. I like stats and all, but I prefer the back of the baseball card stats instead of the PhD in quantum mathematics stats. It’s no wonder baseball is losing popularity.
Sorry for properly evaluating a player
@ hiflew;
You are correct. MLB is (and has been for quite some time) losing popularity to a large degree due to the stats. That and the constant roster turnover which makes even keeping up with your home teams roster a part-time job – which includes keeping track of the daily injuries and pseudo-injuries to park guys on the IL. The games are far too long with the constant pitching switches, the never-ending challenges to umpire calls (fans even have to wait for the team potentially issuing a challenge to look at a replay before they make a decision), and every single game being managed like the 7th game of the WS.
As I keep writing, MLB is attractive to fantasy league players and those that look at spreadsheets of statistics and watch highlights. Every year the players become more programable robots for the FO and others to manipulate – even being told where to stand on D, what pitches they’re allowed to throw, and what pitchers they’re allowed to swing at.
In his later years my WWII father told me that Horse Racing – which was a major sport for his generation – would slowly fade away as there were less and less people that understood the sport. Horse tracks around the country have been either closing or offering less live racing per day for 30 years now, opting to show and take bets on races from other tracks via closed circuit TV for half of their daily racing card. The same thing is slowly happening to MLB – every year the percentage of people that grew up in America and played a lot of baseball declines. Most today grew up playing baseball on a computer. The people that understand the game are those that emigrated from other countries – particularly from South America and the Caribbean as well as Japan and Korea – where kids grow up playing the game from sunup to sundown in the Summer as Americans once did.
Just read the comments here. Everything is about statistics, personalities, and how if each owner would just spend more on player payroll then all 30 MLB teams would go to the WS each year.
I’m not trying to laying all of the blame on stats. It’s not all stats. It’s the fact that baseball is an OLD sport and America has changed a lot in the past 150 years. Baseball started when most people were farmers and people would come together in fields to play. Nowadays most people live in cities where there is no grass, let alone fields.
Horse racing is a good comparison. So is boxing. And in 20 years due to parents not wanting kids to play anymore, football will be as well.
Baseball will live on. But the fandom and maybe some teams will probably shift south of the border.
You should be sorry for speaking for someone else in a conversation that did not include you. But hey as long as you are sorry…
@ hiflew;
Actually his was a terrible – but typical – statistical “evaluation”.
It did not discuss his impact on his team – good or bad. In his case he’s a middle of the order run producer. What does that do for the line-up? For instance – does Jonathan India get pitches to hit in 2022 as he did in 2021 without a big bopper hitting behind him? How about the guy(s) between Indian and Castellanos? Think India will be getting those pitches if Tyler Naquin bats there in 2022? Also, how many balls were hit to him in 2022, and what was the effect on that days game?
Here’s an interesting one on how teams really use stats……
One Astros game I watched this year had Michael Brantley starting in CF. He came up as a CF, but his D deteriorated badly years ago, so he’s been playing LF (or DH’ing if possible). The Astros analytic people looked at the stats of their pitcher that day, and of the projected opponents line-up. They determined that few balls would be hit to CF, so Dusty played Brantley there and got a big bat in LF. The Astros announcers pointed out the reason for the move in the 8th inning, at which time not one ball had been hit to Brantley in CF.
Well India would still likely have Winker hitting behind him. Although that brings up the question of Winker getting anything to hit with Naquin or Senzel or Stephenson hitting 3rd. There is always the possibility of Suarez having a bounceback year since he did have a very good September though.
Of course this is all just speculation since we don’t know exactly what players the Reds will be sending out there in 2022. Will Farmer be the SS or do they spend for an upgrade? Does Castellanos re-sign even if he does opt out? Will the Reds trade Suarez and/or Moustakas since India’s emergence and if so, what kind of return could be expected? Will they ever find a quality bullpen? It should be a fascinating team to watch this offseason.
Hiflew: I heard a comment on MLB Network the other day that summed it up nicely: if spin rate doesn’t translate to performance, why the hell is it a stat? The stats are too voluminous and inconsistent to be relative in many cases. There’s not one methodology (see BBRef and Fangraphs). Look at OOA versus DRS versus total defense for example.
It’s trying to make poor players look better through peripherals, IMO. That’s not to say there’s no value in peripherals.
My stats professor in college explained it perfectly for me. There are numbers for everything. And if you look hard enough, there are numbers that can be manipulated to ANY argument, no matter how insane it is. You can find numbers somewhere that can “prove” aliens landed at last year’s Super Bowl. Doesn’t make it true though.
I think Joe Maddon did that with the Cubs one game. He had a weak player at second and a strong defender at third. He switched them back and forth to “hide” the weaker defender depending on the batter’s tendencies.
I know there are good results that come from things like this, but my problem is that it is no longer MAN doing the thinking. People just punch in the numbers and let the computer do the thinking for them on those stupid laminated cards that I wish were banned. People act as if the entire sport was tainted because the Astros stole a few signs and yet when people use computer programs to predict where balls are going to be hit and put their defenders there, somehow that is NOT against the spirit of the game? I love the game, but I am not exactly loving the current and possible future pathway of the game.
I agree. Cosmo says RBIs dont mean anything. That shows you that analytics ruins sports
RBIs mean everything on offense. It’s just a terrible way to access player talent because it’s a stat that relies on so much more than what the hitter can contribute by themselves. Individual RBI totals aren’t an accurate measure of talent.
Well first of all, it’s a common mistake but the plural of RBI is RBI ;O)
The other day the announcers were pointing out Verdugo had more RBI than Mookie. It was a really dumb thing to bring up, considering Mookie is a leadoff hitter and Dugie batted primarily 2nd and 6th.
But the bottom line is yes RBI is basically meaningless because it doesn’t reflect how many RBI opportunities the player had.
That’s why RISP is a far more meaningful stat than RBI in my opinion.
Actually it should be “RsBI”.
LOL … that’s the correct pronunciation, Runs Batted In, but when abbreviating it’s first letter only for each word ;O)
Does anybody say WsAR?
(see I reference WAR sometimes LOL)
No mention of Adam Duvall.
he’s under control via arbitration. may get non tendered despite a good year. I think he’ll get tendered a contract, myself but keep hearing it’s no sure thing
Because he’s a free agent in 2023. Braves get one more year of his services.
There’s a section for players with options. He has a mutual option, which will likely be declined. I guess they could decline the option and then go to arbitration, but that would be weird.
I worry about what Duvall will do in the World Series against Boston.
He has a career 1.424 OPS at Fenway.
If the Yankees bring back Gardner, I will cancel my MLB streaming subscription.
What if Garnder brings back the Yanks? I mean everyone talks about declining the club option but the player option still stands for sure.
Depends on how much they change the roster. Last year, he was a full time player, not a fourth OFer. If they do what most of us suspect and run out the same team with a relatively minor change or two, then I think they will bring him back for the inevitable OFer injury.
I simply don’t understand why they don’t give, say, Florial a good, solid exposure to MLB. Who cares if he hits .200/300/330? First, it’s not any worse than the rest of the team with few exceptions. Second, It’s the experience that will benefit him. Once he settles we will see if he can truly handle it, but not for a month at a time.
slim pickings!
Not as bad as he FA CF’s, but still mostly garbage. A few will have good 2022’s, but who can tell which ones at this time?
Decent players are getting multi-year contracts now. Sometimes teams get stuck with them if they go bad. But it seems that with so many MLB teams having major holes on their roster each year, there’s always a FO that will trade for an underperforming player as people in their FO figure they can change his game and get something out of him.
Nomar Mazara a household name? I think you are overestimating Mazara’s name value. He is a barely a household name in the Mazara home. I kid, but I doubt most casual fans have even heard of him. And a lot of fans only remember him because of his unusual name.
Josh Harrison seems like a decent pick up for a contender. Even if they don’t have a lineup spot, could be a good bat off the bench.
Kris Bryant. LOL Overachieving Giants just got bounces in the first round. And now their fans are gonna jump up and down a scream at Zaidi to do a Overpay on one of the most overrated players in the game.
After this season, I would think that Padres fans should just stop talking altogether. At least stop talking trash about other teams because no team was more disappointing in 2021 than the Tater Tots..
I can assure you it was not Bryant’s fault they lost the series. He was RAKING
Considering Zaidi just put together a team that won 107 wins in a rebuilding year the giant fans best just remember they’re fans and let the professional make the decisions. When a team overachieves like that it should mute all criticism for at least 2 years.
Bryant actually is a uear younger than the writer indicates, and he did well in the playoffs. Watching at third was difficult at times though. Even the outfield at times.
hahaha the Mets. Conforto is trash c’mon!
I wouldn’t say trah. But average at best. I can’t see him being any kind of upgrade for a contending team. It is a really weak outfielder class this year so may get nice payday from desperate team.
Other than Bryant, Castellanos or Marte, there’s not much to choose from. I imagine at least a 4/5 years, $20MM AAV to sign any of them.
That’s a lot, but they are truly the top-tier full time OFers, whereas most others are utility/bench bats.
I hope the Yanks seek Marte. He’s important for them to have a true CFer, speed on the baseboards and contact.
I could also see Bryant getting the most because of his bat and versatility.
Interesting to see which low budget reclamation project Cleveland will target from this list.
I’m betting the Girdians big move will be offering a minor league spring training deal to Polanco
Chris Owings should be on the Utility list. Was good this year in a small sample before getting hurt but probably has to settle for a minor league contract.
The most stunning piece of information in this article is that the Braves employed Abraham Almonte all the way to September this year. The guy should have been outta baseball 2 or 3 years ago. Any organization who even offers him a minors deal this winter is going nowhere.
A’s take Polanco and tap into his talent to his former 2018 stats. He’s been on the IR quite often while in Pittsburgh the last 3 years. That will hurt his value and his contract status. He gets a minor league deal or a one year 13 million contract with the A’s or another AL team with flexibility. If he clicks next season and stays healthy, I can see 2-3 year contract next offseason. I wish him the best of luck where ever he plays. Most of all, I hope he stays healthy for a whole season. He can help any lineup offensively. It’s definitely not the worst RF in the league and plays the position fairly well.