We’ve taken a position-by-position look at the upcoming free agent class at MLBTR in recent weeks. With the position players now all covered, we turn our attention to the starting pitching market.
Each winter, free agency offers a wide variety of starting pitching tiers. There are usually top-of-the-rotation stars, innings-eating types for the middle and back end, and reclamation projects who have shown well in the past but disappointed in their platform seasons. This offseason will be no exception.
Here are the rotation options slated to hit the open market in the coming weeks:
A Tier Unto Himself
- Max Scherzer (37 years old in 2022): The most dominant pitcher of the current generation, Scherzer could potentially win a fourth Cy Young Award after tossing 179 1/3 innings of 2.46 ERA ball with a huge 34.1% strikeout rate against just a 5.2% walk rate — the third-lowest mark of his storied career. Scherzer is as dominant as he’s ever been, and the only thing that will cap his market this offseason is his age. Justin Verlander signed a two-year, $66MM extension with the Astros for these same age-37 and age-38 seasons, and Scherzer can justifiably look to eclipse that mark in both years and average annual value. He, somewhat incredibly, has a shot at a second nine-figure deal in free agency this winter. He’s ineligible to receive a qualifying offer (both due to being traded midseason and having previously rejected one in his career).
Other Top of the Market Options
- Robbie Ray (30): Back on Aug. 13, I took a look at how the Jays had struck gold on their decision to jump the market and re-sign Ray right out of the gate in free agency. In the 10 starts he made after the time I published that piece, Ray pitched 63 innings of 2.71 ERA ball with a 36% strikeout rate, solidifying himself as the AL Cy Young favorite. Ray’s success is largely driven by heretofore unseen levels of command; after walking 12.9 percent of his opponents from 2017-20, Ray walked just 6.9 percent of the batters he faced in 2021. His 32.1% strikeout rate is the second-best of his career. His AL-best 193 1/3 innings were a career-high. Some clubs will be skeptical about his ability to maintain that vastly improved command, but Ray has positioned himself for a nine-figure contract of five or six years in length after he rejects a qualifying offer.
- Kevin Gausman (31): Gausman’s decision to accept a qualifying offer last year looks quite shrewd. The right-hander might’ve been able to command a two- or three-year deal on the heels of his 2020 breakout, but he bet on himself with that one-year deal and improved across the board. Gausman’s 192 frames and 2.81 ERA were both sixth-best among qualified starters, while his 29.2% strikeout rate and 22.8 K-BB% both ranked eighth. Over his past 251 2/3 innings, Gausman carries a flat 3.00 ERA and 30.0% strikeout rate against a terrific 6.5% walk rate. The former No. 4 overall draft pick now looks like the ace Orioles fans might’ve hoped for when he debuted in 2013. He’s ineligible to receive another qualifying offer and will vie with Ray for the largest overall contract of any starter this offseason.
- Marcus Stroman (30): Stroman doesn’t miss bats at the level of the other top arms on this list, but he’s one of the game’s premier ground-ball pitchers and has better command than most of the names on this list. He’s made 32 or 33 starts in four of the past six seasons, with the exceptions coming in 2020 (when he tore a calf muscle and opted out of the remainder of the season) and in 2018, when he was limited to 19 starts by shoulder fatigue. That’s the only arm injury Stroman has ever had, and the 3.48 ERA he’s compiled over his past four seasons ranks 23rd among 138 qualified starters since 2017. This year’s 3.02 ERA ranked ninth among qualified pitchers. Fielding-independent metrics have never been quite as bullish on Stroman because of his below-average strikeout rate, but his age, durability, premium command and huge ground-ball rates make him one of the market’s top starters. He can’t receive a second qualifying offer and could command a five-year deal himself this winter.
- Carlos Rodon (29): On July 18, Rodon held the Astros to one hit with no walks and 10 strikeouts in seven shutout innings. He hasn’t topped five innings in a start since. Were it not for an ominous bout of shoulder fatigue that sent Rodon to the IL in August and ostensibly capped him at four to five innings per outing late in the year, he’d be right alongside Ray in AL Cy Young contention. The former No. 3 overall pick broke out with a 2.37 ERA and a 34.6% strikeout rate that trailed only Corbin Burnes (min. 100 innings pitched). Rodon was questionable for the ALDS but eventually pitched 2 2/3 innings in the ChiSox’ final effort against Houston. He was hitting the upper-90s with his heater, but that brief look may not be enough to allay concerns about his shoulder. Rodon could reject a qualifying offer and look to max out on a shorter multi-year deal. Alternatively, he could go the Gausman/Stroman route — accept a QO and hope a big 2022 showing positions him for a nine-figure deal next winter.
Former Cy Young Winners in their Mid/Late 30s
- Zack Greinke (38): Greinke still provides innings, but his average fastball was down to 89.0 mph in 2021 and he posted a second consecutive ERA north of 4.00. Greinke’s season-long numbers were torpedoed by a poor stretch of four starts to close out the year. His ERA sat at 3.41 as recently as Aug. 23 — albeit with a sub-par 17.5 percent strikeout rate. Still, Greinke is durable and possesses outstanding command. Teams will see him as a workhorse who can provide average or better innings while passing down plenty of knowledge to younger arms. He’s already turned down one qualifying offer, so he can’t receive a second.
- Justin Verlander (39): It was surprising to hear Astros owner Jim Crane say Verlander would be seeking “a contract of some length” recently. The two-time Cy Young winner has thrown just six innings since the conclusion of the 2019 postseason due to 2020 Tommy John surgery. Houston will make a qualifying offer, and if Verlander is indeed intent on multiple years, he’ll reject. Verlander has said in the past that he hopes to pitch into his mid-40s, and his resume speaks for itself. A multi-year deal is risky, but how many arms come with this type of ceiling?
- Corey Kluber (36): Kluber’s comeback looked to be in full swing when he no-hit the Rangers in May. However, he pitched three innings in his next start, went on the injured list for three months, and returned with a 5.40 ERA in his final 26 2/3 frames. Kluber still finished with a solid 3.83 ERA in 80 innings, but his 24 percent strikeout rate was roughly average and his 9.7 percent walk rate was high. That no-no and a dominant outing against the Tigers early in the year stand out, but his season lacked consistency.
- Clayton Kershaw (34): He wasn’t quite peak Kershaw, but the second three-time Cy Young winner on this list rattled off 121 2/3 innings of 3.55 ERA ball with even more promising strikeout (29.5) and walk (4.3) percentages when healthy. Kershaw hit the IL with forearm inflammation in early July and missed two months before returning for four shaky starts down the stretch (15 1/3 innings, 4.70 ERA). He’s out for the postseason due to renewed forearm discomfort but won’t require surgery, instead receiving a platelet-rich plasma injection. There’s huge uncertainty here. If the Dodgers feel he’s healthy enough to make a qualifying offer, perhaps the simplest course would just be for Kershaw to accept.
Mid-Rotation Arms in their Prime
- Anthony DeSclafani (32): DeSclafani was clobbered by the Dodgers this season and posted a 2.21 ERA against all other teams (hat tip to The Athletic’s Grant Brisbee). The end result was a 3.17 ERA in 167 2/3 innings, a slightly below-average strikeout percentage (22.5) and a very strong walk rate (6.2 percent). DeSclafani has some injuries on his track record, most notably an elbow strain that cost him the 2017 season but didn’t require surgery. He’s made 31 starts of sub-4.00 ERA ball in two of the past three seasons and could find interest on a three- or perhaps even four-year deal — depending on whether the Giants make a qualifying offer.
- Jon Gray (30): Gray went down with a forearm issue late in the season and was rocked upon returning, but it was a solid year for the former No. 3 overall draft pick when healthy. Gray throws hard, misses bats, keeps the ball on the ground and has solid command. He owns a 4.52 ERA and 4.01 FIP over four prior seasons, and he’s the type of prime-aged, power arm another team could dream on. Colorado opted not to trade him at the deadline, so a qualifying offer seems likely, as they’d otherwise stand to lose him without compensation.
- Steven Matz (31): Matz has had an up-and-down career, sometimes looking like a non-tender candidate but sometimes looking like a mid-rotation building block. The latter was the case in 2021, Matz’s lone season with the Blue Jays. He posted a 3.82 ERA in 150 2/3 frames with solid strikeout and walk rates. He’s been on the IL every year since 2015, albeit mostly for minor injuries that required only brief absences. He’s done enough for a team to give him a multi-year deal to pitch out of the middle of a rotation.
- Eduardo Rodriguez (29): One of the youngest pitchers on the market this year, Rodriguez will be overlooked by some simply due to a pedestrian 4.74 ERA. However, E-Rod had the best strikeout and walk percentages of his career and largely allayed concerns about his health and durability after missing the 2020 season due to a troubling bout of myocarditis. Rodriguez has a 4.13 ERA with sub-4.00 marks in FIP, xFIP, SIERA and xERA over his past four seasons. Even if he rejects a qualifying offer, he’ll be a popular multi-year deal candidate.
- Alex Wood (30): Wood barely pitched from 2019-20 and has a history of shoulder troubles, but he made 26 starts with strong cumulative numbers in 2021 (3.83 ERA, 26% strikeout rate, 6.7% walk rate, 50.8% grounder rate). With an ERA of 3.84 or better in every season of his career outside of those injury-ruined 2019-20 seasons, quality strikeout rates and plus ground-ball rates, Wood will be popular on the market. Like his teammate, DeSclafani, he’s a borderline QO candidate.
Older Veterans/Back-of-the-Rotation Options
- Brett Anderson (34): A ground-ball specialist who doesn’t miss many bats, Anderson has a 4.12 ERA and strong command over his past four seasons. He’s spent a fair bit of time on the IL, however, resulting in just 399 1/3 frames dating back to 2018.
- Tyler Anderson (32): Anderson has rebuilt his stock nicely over the past two seasons, but his rookie year 3.54 ERA back in 2016 was a long time ago. He’s generally a solid five-inning starter with an ERA in the mid-4.00s. A two-year deal isn’t out of the question based on his age and the consistency with which he’s taken the ball over the past two seasons.
- Alex Cobb (34): The 2021 version of Cobb might be the best we’ve seen since 2013-14, but injuries limited him to 93 1/3 frames. Cobb has never made 30 starts in a season, so the injury risk is palpable, but he’s coming off a solid 2021 campaign.
- J.A. Happ (39): Happ looked like a DFA candidate with the Twins but posted a 4.00 ERA in 54 innings following a trade to the Cardinals. His strikeout and walk rates didn’t really change in St. Louis, but his BABIP dropped by 60 points. Playing in front of MLB’s top defense (per DRS and OAA) certainly didn’t hurt.
- Rich Hill (42): Raise your hand if you expected 41-year-old Hill to post the second-highest innings total of his career in 2021. The lefty’s strikeout and walk rates both improved over their 2020 levels, and he posted near-identical ERAs between the Rays and Mets. He’s made clear he’s not retiring, so look for another one-year deal to slot into the middle of a rotation.
- Kwang Hyun Kim (33): He’s been mostly a five-inning starter and has been helped out immensely by a lights-out Cardinal defense (.257 BABIP, 17.2% strikeout rate), but Kim owns a 2.97 ERA in 145 2/3 MLB frames. His 4.89 SIERA tells another story, but as a fifth back-of-the-rotation option or long man, teams could do much worse.
- Wade LeBlanc (37): The journeyman lefty helped keep the Cardinals afloat when their rotation need was at its most dire point (3.61 ERA in 42 1/3 innings), but an elbow injury ultimately ended his season and required surgery.
- Jon Lester (38): Lester couldn’t keep his ERA under 5.00 in Washington, but like Happ, his results improved playing in front of the St. Louis defensive juggernaut. Lester is a five-inning starter at this point and had one of the lowest K-BB% marks of any pitcher in 2021 (min. 100 IP). If he wants to keep pitching, though, someone will pencil the veteran in for some innings.
- Jordan Lyles (31): The two-year, $16MM deal he inked with Texas didn’t pan out as the Rangers hoped. This year’s 5.15 ERA was unsightly, but Lyles tied for 18th in the league with 180 innings pitched. He can eat some innings at the back of someone’s rotation in 2022.
- Wily Peralta (33): Peralta didn’t pitch in 2020 but returned to the big leagues with 93 2/3 innings of 3.07 ERA ball for Detroit. His poor 14.4% strikeout rate and 9.5% walk rate don’t inspire a lot of confidence in his ability to repeat that feat, but he’s put himself back on the radar.
- Michael Pineda (33): Injuries hampered Pineda throughout the season and likely prevented the Twins from trading him. There’s mutual interest between he and the Twins, so he could simply re-sign. If not, he’ll take a 3.62 ERA and a pristine walk rate (4.6%) into the free-agent market — but also a diminished heater (90.9 mph) and a career-worst strikeout rate (19.2%).
- Drew Smyly (33): Smyly got out to a rough start before rebounding with a 3.85 ERA from May 1 through season’s end. There are obvious durability concerns, and he didn’t replicate last year’s strikeout rate, but the southpaw will still garner plenty of interest.
- Michael Wacha (30): Wacha has signed a pair of one-year deals in hopes of rebuilding his stock the past two seasons, but it hasn’t exactly happened. He logged 124 2/3 frames with the Rays and posted a 5.05 ERA in 2021 and now carries a 5.11 ERA over his past three seasons. He’s young enough that there’s a tinge of upside here, but some teams probably just view him as a fifth starter at this point.
Rebound Hopefuls/Depth Options
- Chase Anderson (34): A solid rotation piece from 2014-19, Anderson has limped to an ERA just shy of 7.00 over the past two seasons.
- Chris Archer (33): Injuries have taken their toll on Archer, who had thoracic outlet surgery in 2020 and pitched just 19 1/3 innings in his 2021 return to the Rays.
- Jake Arrieta (36): Released by the Cubs late in the season, Arrieta landed with the Padres and was shelled in four starts. He’s been on the decline for several years.
- Dylan Bundy (29): The 2020 season looked like a breakout, but Bundy followed with a 6.06 ERA and struggled enough to lose his rotation spot in Anaheim. He’s shown flashes of brilliance numerous times in the past, but the former No. 2 overall prospect just continues to struggle with the long ball.
- Trevor Cahill (33): There was some bargain potential when the Bucs signed Cahill in Spring Training, but a series of calf strains held him to 37 innings with an ERA north of 6.00.
- Zach Davies (29): Davies’ big 2020 season with the Padres looks like an outlier after his strikeout and walk rates both trended strongly in the wrong direction. Davies is durable and still young, but he had the fifth-worst K-BB% of any pitcher with at least 100 innings in 2021.
- Danny Duffy (33): The longtime Royals lefty was excellent when healthy (2.51 ERA, 25.8% strikeout rate), but a pair of forearm injuries limited him to just 61 innings. Duffy never pitched for the Dodgers after being acquired in late July.
- Mike Fiers (37): After pitching to a 4.03 ERA in 234 innings with the A’s from 2019-20, Fiers managed just 9 1/3 frames in 2021 due to an elbow sprain.
- Mike Foltynewicz (30): Folty regained nearly three miles per hour on his fastball in 2021, averaging 94.2 mph. The results, however, did not improve for the 2018 All-Star, who posted an ugly 5.44 ERA in 139 innings. The Rangers could’ve controlled Foltynewicz through 2022 via arbitration, but they’ve already cut him loose.
- Chi Chi Gonzalez (30): A first-round pick by Texas back in 2013, Gonzalez has spent the past three seasons with the Rockies, where he’s pitched to a 6.10 ERA and a dismal 5.7 K-BB%.
- Matt Harvey (33): Harvey posted a 3.60 ERA through his first six starts and a 4.18 ERA over his final 10 starts. The problem? He allowed 51 runs through 45 innings in the dozen starts between that pair of encouraging bookends. All told, Harvey finished with a 6.27 ERA, a subpar 16.3% strikeout rate and a strong 6.4% walk rate.
- Andrew Heaney (31): Heaney’s strikeout, walk, swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rates are all excellent. Unfortunately, he was one of MLB’s most homer-prone arms in 2021 (2.01 HR/9). Heaney will probably get a solid one-year deal because of his age and ability to miss bats. He’ll be a popular buy-low target.
- Michael Lorenzen (30): Lorenzen has been in line for a look in the Reds’ rotation on multiple occasions, but injuries have always intervened. That said, he’s angling for a rotation opportunity next spring and ought to get some consideration given a heater that averaged just shy of 97 (albeit in relief) and given a 3.48 ERA in 331 bullpen innings from 2016-20. Lorenzen is something of a unicorn, given that he also handles the bat well and has plus defensive tools in center field. If you’re purely rolling the dice on rotation options, they don’t come much more interesting than Lorenzen and his across-the-board skill set.
- Matt Moore (33): Moore’s return from Japan ended with a 6.29 ERA in 73 innings of work. He lost his rotation spot early in the year and has yet to recapture his 2011-14 pre-Tommy John form.
- James Paxton (33): Paxton, who missed most of 2020 with forearm and back injuries, pitched just one inning in his return to Seattle. He underwent Tommy John surgery in April. Paxton is one of the most talented pitchers in baseball, but he’s never made 30 starts in a season and has just 21 1/3 innings across the past two years.
- Jose Quintana (33): The veteran Quintana posted an ERA north of 8.00 as a starter but notched a 4.18 ERA with a 28.3% strikeout rate and 7.5% walk rate in 28 relief innings. He could draw interest in both roles this winter.
- Aaron Sanchez (29): A biceps injury limited Sanchez to 35 1/3 innings, during which time he walked 15 batters and plunked another four. His 90.4 mph average fastball was five miles per hour slower than it was at his peak. Sanchez had a 3.06 ERA, but the numbers beyond that weren’t pretty.
- Noah Syndergaard (30): Syndergaard hoped to be back from 2020 Tommy John surgery by June, but setbacks shelved him until late September. He pitched just two innings. Lost season notwithstanding, the Mets could make a qualifying offer to Syndergaard, who has ace-caliber stuff when healthy.
- Jose Urena (30): Non-tendered by the Marlins last winter, Urena pitched 100 2/3 innings with the Tigers but turned in a third straight season with an ERA over 5.00. A forearm strain cut his season short. He’s a minor league deal candidate this winter.
- Vince Velasquez (30): Velasquez has tantalized the Phillies with impressive raw stuff for years but never been able to harness it as a consistently successful rotation member. Velasquez throw in the mid-90s, misses bats and won’t be 30 until next June. Plenty of teams will want to take aim at trying to “fix” him.
Players with 2022 Club/Player Options
- Johnny Cueto, $22MM club option with $5MM buyout (36): Cueto looked like a fourth starter when he was healthy this year. Teams will view him as a veteran source of innings, but it’s hard to see the Giants picking up a net $17MM option.
- Merrill Kelly, $4.25MM club option with $500K buyout (32): The D-backs have an easy call here after Kelly pitched to a 4.44 ERA in 158 innings. Kelly is an affordable source of innings at the back of the rotation and would command a fair bit of trade interest if Arizona goes that route.
- Yusei Kikuchi, four-year, $66MM club option or $13MM player option (31): Kikuchi reportedly plans to exercise his $13MM player option once the Mariners decline their option to extend him at a set rate. Kikuchi was excellent for the first four months of the season or so, making the All-Star team and at one point looking like that extension option might be palatable for Seattle. He crashed hard over the final two months, however.
- Carlos Martinez, $17MM club option with $500K buyout (30): This one’s a formality for the Cardinals, who’ll decline the option after watching Martinez pitch to a 6.95 ERA in 102 1/3 innings from 2020-21.
- Wade Miley, $10MM club option with $1MM buyout (35): A net $9MM decision seems like an easy call for the Reds after Miley racked up 163 innings of 3.37 ERA ball. Cincinnati cut payroll last offseason, but it’d be a surprise to see them send Miley back to the market with such a reasonable 2022 option at their disposal.
- Garrett Richards, $10MM club option with $1MM buyout (34): Richards was making good on his move to the bullpen before faceplanting in the final couple weeks of the season. With a 4.87 ERA in 136 2/3 innings, that option is likely to be bought out.
Previous installments in this series: catcher, first base, second base, third base, shortstop, center field, corner outfield
Ben K
Certainly a plethora of options in all tiers. Not a bad year to go shopping for a SP.
Al Hirschen
Mets Break the bank and off for Mad Max Max money. Highest baseball contract ever
PutPeteinthehall
By the year yes. Not going to be more than 2-3 years
The Mets "Missed WAR"
I started Carlos Martinez for a game in my 20-team fantasy league this season. He rewarded me by having what I am pretty sure is the worst single day fantasy performance of all time. He didn’t record a single out and still allowed 10 earned runs to pick up the loss. I don’t know if any of you play fantasy but in one day he scored me -34 fantasy points. Has anyone ever heard of a player scoring that low before? That’s literally the lowest I’ve ever heard of. It was like he pitched the opposite of a no-hitter. Instead it was an only-hitter with about 6 walks thrown in there for good measure.
stpbaseball
who would you pick with the first pick next season?
mike156
Not a perfect match (he did get two outs) but this one, by Jason Jennings is pretty bad. baseball-reference.com/boxes/HOU/HOU200707290.shtm…
The Mets "Missed WAR"
Next season I would probably go:
1. Shohei Ohtani
2. Fernando Tatis, Jr.
3. Vlad Guerrero, Jr.
JohhnyBets67
Acuna depending upon his health probably goes right after those 3.
tstats
Soto.
The Mets "Missed WAR"
4. Juan Soto
5. (Maybe if he’s healthy) Ronald Acuna, Jr.
That might be a little risky taking Ohtani 1-1 but his upside is so huge and he was the best player in fantasy last season. Who should be 6th? That’s one I haven’t figured out yet. Someone will probably take Trout there but my guess is that’s too high for him. I think it’s possible Trout’s calf becomes nagging like Josh Donaldson’s. If that happens Trout is a huge bust at 6.
Fonzy13
Solid Gold!
wildboyz
Max has already said he would never pitch for The Mets or The Phillies.
tidybowlman
Sabathia didn’t want to pitch in NY too at first. He must have a price.
Say Hey Now Kid
He wouldn’t wave his no trade clause for the Mets or Yanks so I Don’t think the wants to be in NY. My Mets should go after Gausman
Ducky Buckin Fent
Or; Dodgers offer ~ the same $$ & he kicks it in LaLa Land. Dodgers are like the Yankee$ I was once accustomed to.
Meaning: a viable landing place for any/all Big Name free agents. (Might not get ’em past the Braves but does give them an inside track on the ’22 NLCS.)
Mr Jason
“you hear that Arte? Get your guys some damn arms already!”
costergaard2
Moreno is the West Coast Wilpon…
trout27
Moreno is nothing like Wilpon, quite the opposite. Moreno has no problem paying big money for top position players like Trout, Rendon, Hamilton, Upton etc. Moreno’s problem is he meddles in the front office business i.e. the Pujols 10 year albatross contract. He signs these guys without doing the proper homework. These contracts hamstring the GM with very little money left to spend on pitching. Considering how these mega contracts have worked out I hope the Angels don’t go over three years on any new contracts except for Ohtani. If he spent the money on the MiLB clubs maybe the organization would produce more prospects.
BoboOrzo
Perhaps Michael Lorenzen belongs here somewhere? He says he intends to sign with a team that will give him a shot as a starter.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Agree
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
Cubs needs starters. Like 3 of them. I’ll be happy to take him away from the Reds.
Rick Wilkins
Did you see how he pitched this year Billy? He can stay far away from the North Side of Chicago……
Cap & Crunch
No way in HE double hockey sticks Id invest in Rondon
Somebody will, but that doesn’t mean it has to be your team
I like possible Bundy or Duffy rebounds if they can be had on a 1 yr show type contract
anthonyd4412
How about Rodon?
ChiSox_Fan
Rodon is best available FA.
His arm simply tired over the long season this year. He hadn’t pitched that many innings in one season for years.
stymeedone
@chisox_fan
The fact is they over used him in the first half of the season, after all his years of injuries. I wouldn’t want my team risking high dollars that Rodon will be healthy in 2022.
Ronk325
Is Hector Rondon making a comeback?
WorstThrowEver
Bundy is done. His velo is way down and even in relief appearances he can only get it up to 92. Once they announced the sticky stuff ban his entire season fell apart. I’d bet on Rodon having a good season over Bundy 10 times out of 10.
tidybowlman
What’s actually wrong with him?
Georgiajeff
I think I would go with Al Bundy before Dylan Bundy
iverbure
The amount of people that think 75% of mlb pitchers fell apart right after the sticky stuff was banned is hilarious to me. If you listened to these people a entire new league of pitchers had to come into the league.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Reviewing that list, I now tend to think the Giants will over a QO to both Alex Wood and DeSclafani.
The Giants might as well see if they can squeeze another year of magic out of their roster. I say this as a Dodgers and Cubs fan, I think the Giants mostly make rationale moves.
JeffreyChungus
$38 mil+ for 1 year of control on their 3 and 4 starters who cost less than $10 mil combined this year? That’s a certified Zaidi move.
Noahschwartz
And cubs?
Giants74
The likelihood of there being a mad rush to sign Wood and DeScalafani is non-existent. So, why give them QO? I’m sure they can be signed for far less then the QO money.
Armaments216
Wood and DeSclafani can both command multi year contracts. Giants can offer them that or a QO. Neither of them is going to sign another 1 year contract right now if it’s not a QO.
Old York
Whh pay for SP when they rarely go 5 innings anymore and they have to rest for 5-days? Fill it up with RP and long-men. Look at the playoffs, SP can barely go 4 innings with all the bullpen use.
Ted
Can’t fit enough arms on the roster to do it. Playoffs have more off days so it works better.
Jose Tattoo-vay
Although I don’t disagree this is where baseball is heading in terms of pitching strategy, it’s still a 162 game season. Changes like this need to be implemented over multiple seasons, not in one offseason.
2012orioles
Chi chi Gonzalez has Orioles written all over him
inkstainedscribe
Chi Chi Rodriguez can still hit the fairways.
bigeasye
No chance Kershaw leaves.
InherentVice
Now that his old high school catcher is also in LA, yeah, no chance. But if the Lions hadn’t made that trade, who knows, maybe Detroit would have been a viable option.
stymeedone
Kershaw may wish to stay, but LAD wants to win, and it sounds like he is in pre tommy john stage. If SFG can cut the cord with Bumgarner, I can see LAD doing the same with Kershaw.
ftasports
What about Bauer tho
MasterCal
He won’t opt out of 40 million
StreakingBlue
I think MLB might have some say in this also probably suspending him. If not I have a feeling that Dodgers won’t want him back, so if possible part ways as I don’t think Dodgers we’re all that happy with the Bauer distraction.
PutPeteinthehall
Won’t have to. The league will make sure to suspend him and strongly suspect language in the contract will contain an option for the Dodgers to void it. Do they just give away the 15 or so million they had to pay him while under “administrative leave” or go after him for repayment? Players that got signing bonuses but did not
stay the length of the contract have had teams demand repayment.
MLB Top 100 Commenter
Negotiate a deal, he gets paid for this year as if he pitched in return for foregoing the rest. Win-win for everyone just to get rid of him.
stymeedone
Not in baseball they havent.
stymeedone
What will the league be able to do if the charges get dropped or he is found not guilty? It will be difficult to suspend if he has done nothing illegal. As for this year, he has already been paid in full while on administrative leave.
Cosmo2
I dunno, what he’s admitted to already, illegal or not, is pretty gosh darn awful. Does something have to be against the law in order to be reprehensible?
cpdpoet
I do wonder how insurance works for this type of situation….? I know it covers for injuries….
pinstripes17
He will never play in MLB again
TradeAcuna
Noah Syndergaard is going to be the most interesting name on the list.
He is probably worth going after regardless if you are a contender or not. Interesting to see what the Mets decide to do and whether Noah will accept a return.
Dustyslambchops23
Except he probably accepts the QO
CNichols
QO is $18.4M for 1 year when he’s coming off TJ and has only thrown 2 innings in the last 2 seasons.
That salary is twice what he made this year so it feels like a no brainer for him to take that short term money and then try to reset his market for a big long term deal.
Dustyslambchops23
Bad year to need pitching.
The only high impact sure thing is 37 years old and probably will sign with the Dodgers pretty quickly.
iverbure
Huh? There’s plenty of options.
Dustyslambchops23
‘High impact sure thing’
There is one top of the rotation arm you can bank on the rest are question marks or mid to back
pinstripes17
Not true at all, did you actually read the article?
iverbure
This is the deepest free-agent pitching class I can remember in the past `decade. I didn’t feel like deliberately shortening the entry just because there’s a lot of names out there this winter.
If you just want a list of names, we’ve had that posted since Nov. 2020:
Quote from the guy who wrote the article.
You can tell who’s a new or ignorant fan. Wonder how many fans thought Robbie Ray or Alex Wood were going to be high impact SP?
TroyVan
I’d gamble on Kluber! He’d come at a discount and I think he’s great.
Gothamcityriddler
Have you seen him pitch this year? If by great you mean mediocre, than yes he is great. Ahahahaha!
JoeBrady
You can’t really tell what the market will think, but I like Syndergaard. He’s an obvious injury risk, but from 2016-2018, before the injuries, he was an absolute beast. You have to mark the guy down, but without the TJS, he’d be the most expensive guy on the list.
Cosmo2
I don’t even really see him as an injury risk. It just may take a year for him to get back into form, and no guarantees that that form is as elite as we hope. But he’s a good guy to take a chance on.
mlb1225
I would also consider Kwang-Hyun Kim under the veteran/back of the rotation options. Nothing outstanding, but a solid ground ball pitcher and can fill in a 5th spot or bullpen role if need be.
Steve Adams
Yup — went back and added Kim. He should’ve been in there from the start, but probably got lost in the shuffle as I was reordering and trying to come up with tiers for the whole bunch. I think he’s benefited greatly from the St. Louis defense, but the results are there so far. He’s on the list now.
DarkSide830
lol at Stroman in that tier
Steve Adams
Insightful critique notwithstanding, I think I’m good with where I placed him — even if I’m admittedly more bullish on him than the rest of the MLBTR staff.
pinstripes17
He definitely deserves to be in that tier.
Cosmo2
Some fans love to crap all over Stroman for some reason but they never provide statistical evidence for their nonsense. Stroman is very good.
bhambrave
What? No Drew Smyly?
Jk
inkstainedscribe
He’ll probably get a look from one of the teams that uses openers a lot (Rays …). The Braves finally figured he can get through a lineup one time unscathed, especially if he’s the second guy in the game. That is worth something, if not a SP’s contract.
richt
These preview posts are getting really long.
Steve Adams
This is the deepest free-agent pitching class I can remember in the past `decade. I didn’t feel like deliberately shortening the entry just because there’s a lot of names out there this winter.
If you just want a list of names, we’ve had that posted since Nov. 2020:
mlbtraderumors.com/2020/11/2021-22-mlb-free-agents…
richt
It is big indeed, I just don’t think a lot of the marginal names (Chi Chi Gonzales, Jordan Lyles, etc.) merit discussion since they’ll be getting minor league deals.
sox4ever
Look for the Yankees to bargain hunt again
Peart of the game
What about a tier of guys who might potentially be signed out of the NPB or KBO? Tomoyuki Sugano (opt out), Masahiro Tanaka (opt out), Drew VerHagen, Ariel Miranda, David Buchanan, Drew Rucinski, Wilmer Font, Eric Jokisch, Casey Kelly, Andrew Suarez.
Steve Adams
If Sugano formally opts out — or announces his intention to do so — he’ll be on our Top 50 list and featured prominently. Suppose I could drop him into the “players with options” section, though.
KozmosTerezniak
Hey Steve,
Nice to see you responding to some of the comments made on this article. I’ve avoided jumping into the comments section for a little while now due to things generally getting out of hand, so I didn’t realize you guys were doing this.
Anyway, I wanted to say that it would be cool to see a series on QO candidates, especially with the added complexity of the CBA expiring. I think we might see teams with excess cash using the QO multiple times on FA they feel will get multi-year contracts.
Thanks for all you do.
Edp007
I would sign Tyler, Chase and Brett Anderson just for the heck of it
Edp007
What about the previously unknown Barlow’s closing for the Rangers and Royals.
Took a while to realize they were different pitchers on different teams as I started seeing saves in the boxscores.
Vizionaire
the angels should sign noah syndergaard and rich hill.
Mickey777
I think the Yankees could use a strong #2 starter to go along with Cole. Scherzer is almost certainly not coming to the Northeast, so that makes Robbie Ray the best choice. They have good depth with Cortes, Taillon, German, Montgomery, Gil, Schmidt, and hopefully Severino. Given their depth I think they would be better off spending their money elsewhere.
Steinbrenner shows no sign of breaking the bank this off season. If it was me I spend money on a catcher, a shortstop, a first baseman, and a centerfielder . I’d love to get Freddy Freeman but there is virtually no chance of that happening. Could we swing deals for Rizzo, Starling Marte (@Ducky convinced me on this guy) and that hopefully leaves enough moola for Jonathan Villar at short and Tucker Barnhart behind the plate. These players will improve our defense and our offense. We have right handed pitchers, shortstops, good hit no field catchers a plenty waiting in the wings, so we can afford shorter term commitments at Short and on the mound. Hopefully the Martian will be our centerfielder in a couple of years.
Please let me know what you think and how you would spend Hal’s money.
YankeesBleacherCreature
I think Ray is a true #2.5 even though he’s likely the CYA winner. He reminds me much of Patrick Corbin, whom the Yankees pursued, before he the signed with the Nats. I’d say go hard for Scherzer for three years and Correa/Seager. I’m fine with the Sanchez/Higgy tandem which combined for 2.1 fWAR and 33 HRs. They can’t be worse and both together will make around $9M next year. I’m also willing to accept Voit and a LHH bench player at 1B. Can Anduljar or Frazier get reps at 1B? Flip Torres for a reliever.
Yankee Clipper
If you want to stay with Sanchez, I say upgrade Higgy. There are some good market options with much better defense than Sanchez & probably Higgy too, that also have league-average bat, which Higgy does not.
Thoughts YBC?
StudWinfield
If I’m the Yanks I’m looking at short term depth deals. One of Matz, Anderson, ERod or Gray for the rotation. Rizzo and Story if they can be has for deals less than 4 years. DeJong also a possibility. Keep Torres and let him play his way into the lineup. Trade Voit. Sign Pina to play with Sanchez at C. Going to have Judge, Gallo, Hicks and Stanton for OF/DH. S.Marte makes sense. Expect nothing out of Frazier, Andujar, Britton. Expect DJL and Gio to be healthy and reverse the regression of 2021. No reason to not be optimistic about 2022
greatgame 2
Wouldn’t touch LeBlanc, Cobb, Cahill or Lyles.
stubby66
If had to pick a group of 5 guys I sign I would probably take a chance with Lorenzen, Noah,Gray, Lyles, probably Alex Woods
Allen Adams
Astros are holding tryouts at Fenway next 2 nights
Redstitch108* 2
Halos, please sign Gausman and Gray and be done with the rotation: Ohtani, Gausman, Gray, Sandoval, Barria, Detmers/Rodriguez. Thank you. That is all.
Halo11Fan
Nothing wrong with those moves but the Angels need to back that up by adding a bullpen. If Perry goes the Claudio/Guerra route again, he truly is a platypus and not Agent P.
I have a total lack of confidence in anyone who thought those were going to be good signings. Right now I have no confidence in Perry. I don’t understand how anyone competent could have made such obviously stupid moves.
Mr Jason
Exactly right. We’re so pitching deficient we literally need guys that can throw a baseball at the beginning and middle and almost-the-end
JeffreyChungus
Building a solid bullpen takes a good minute. Look at all the signings Chaim Bloom made for the Red Sox bullpen in 2020–Jeffrey Springs, Chris Mazza, Josh Osich, Austin Brice, Robert Stock, Phillips Valdez–not very inspiring, but they’re 2 wins from the World Series now. You gotta sort through the junk before you can compile a capable stable of lights-out guys. I’d like to see what Perry can do this offseason before getting my pitchfork out.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
Look what Dipoto did with his reclamation projects: Drew Stekenrider, Paul Sewald, JT Chargois, etc…he’s lucked out lately with the waiver claims on bullpen arms.
Halo11Fan
Are you comparing the Angels bullpen to the Red Sox bullpen? Yes, building a bullpen takes a good minute. Building a rotation takes years
So take your minute and add bullpen pieces that have had recent success and guys that have potential to be successful. Not Claudio or Guerra who were unlikely to be successful. Don’t add pitchers that haven’t been good in years
Mr Jason
I second this plan.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
The best name on this list is Stroman. And I hope the Mariners sign him.
tidybowlman
On the whole list? As someone who’s seen every start of his, I’m not sure about that one.
Ignorant Son-of-a-b
Stroman stays healthy. He gives you lots of inning. His ERA was below 3.00 for much of the season as he was racking up loss after loss mainly due to pitiful run support. I think he would be the most bang for the buck. Scherzer is getting old and Robbie Ray will likely regress.
When it was a game.
If he has a great infield behind him it is possible.
Bright Side
I’d give Thor a 2 year deal High reward.
JoeBrady
$80M/4 is my guess.
raulp
Plenty of options for everyone’s needs and budgets
LordD99
I wonder if there’s ever been a free agent class that had seven Cy Young Award winners?
cpdpoet
Am curious to see what Dombrowski does as last years #4 & #5 options Andersen/Moore failed miserably…..
As others have pointed out, sometimes it’s just the right player in the right situation..
The Saber-toothed Superfife
Obviously…. he’ll trade prospects.
Capcalhoon
Zaidi gonna Zaidi and let Gausman, Wood and Disco walk. He’ll sign talented, high ceiling starters who haven’t reached their full potential and sign one year deals so the Giants’ cadre of coaches can fix them. But this time he insists on team options since free agents know they can reach their full potential with the team and everyone benefits.
So looking at a Webb, Bundy, Gray, Rodriguez rotation with a wildcard of either one big budget name or a big name trade since the Giants have to clear some names off of their 40 man to add the plethora of guys who need to be protected from the Rule 5.
Giants74
Since Zaidi likes consistency, they are not going to let those 3 walk. The only guy they really have to worry about in the rule 5 draft is Ramos. The rest are to young.
frankf
Sign the Cubs up for 1 of (though both would be better ;)) Rodon/Stroman, an incentive heavy deal for Thor, and then a 1 year self-gamble on Bundy.
marinersblue96
I think Paxton needs to be moved to the bullpen. He could dominate in that role and it would be less stress on the arm.
CNichols
Paxton is kind of a weird one on here because that TJ recovery timeline is going to make him miss the first couple months of the season.
He could be a solid gamble for a team that can afford to risk it because if he does come back in pre-2020 form, that’s almost like buying a huge deadline SP upgrade ahead of time. Competitors who can afford to risk him going bust should be looking into that.
HalosHeavenJJ
I’d be stoked with Stroman and any of the mid rotation arms not named Alex Wood. The Angels need consistency rather than chasing lightning in a bottle.
Ohtani, Stroman, Gray, Sandoval, Suarez with one of Barria, Canning or Detmers as the sixth guy is a night and day difference from recent years.
Angels & NL West
I would be thrilled to enter the season with those eight SP. Among other things, this would allow Rodriguez and Bachman to start the season in the bullpen and AA, respectively.
HalosHeavenJJ
I love C Rod as a multi inning reliever 2 days per week. Would hopefully eliminate a lot of Slegers/Guerra types coming into the middle innings.
The bullpen is a dumpster fire right now but the 2020 draft included the closers at Vandy, South Carolina, and a multi inning reliever from Miami. Hopefully they matriculate end of 21/beginning of 22 and we start to build a bullpen from within.
Fever Pitch Guy
No love for ERod in the comments section?
He raised his value again last night, it looks like he’s finally back in 2019 form.
I’d like to have him back on a QO, but now I’m not so sure he would accept it.
HalosHeavenJJ
I’d love to take a shot at E Rod. Getting him out of the bandboxes in the East would further reduce his already good HR numbers. He doesn’t walk many, and he’s on the right side of 30.
A'sfaninUK
Gausman still doesn’t smell right to me. He had over 15 starts against easybeats this year. I think whoever gets him ends up overpaying and regretting it. I think he goes right back to being an up-and-down mid-rotation-type.
If I were pitchers I’d just go to whoever the contender was who had the most rebuilding teams in their division – easy wins, easy QS’s, and you get to go to the postseason.
Jean Matrac
Are you saying Gausman’s good numbers are from only facing bad teams? If so, you’re wrong.
Here is his ERA against teams that made the PS:
Braves – 3.00
Astros – 6.23
Dodgers – 3.21
Brewers – 3.60
Cardinals – 2.57
His ERA against all teams equal to or better than .500 was 3.06.
The single GS against the Astros looks bad, and it was his worst, with the highest ERA against any other team. But, by comparison look at some A’s pitchers:
F. Montas., 3.63 ERA overall, single GS against the LAD, 23.63 ERA.
C. Bassitt, 3.15 ERA overall, single GS against the W Sox, 27.00 ERA.
S. Manaea, 3.91 ERA overall, single GS against the R Sox, 31.50 ERA
HalosHeavenJJ
That’s a great breakdown. I was starting to look at his game logs to see if he was only good against bad teams, but you’ve done a far better job.
tonyinsingapore
It may be breaking the rules, but let the DUMPSTER DIVE BEGIN !
Rsox
Lots of interesting options out there. I don’t see any real big money long term deals in any of these players but lots of different arms to choose from
FOmeOLS
So, the Orioles are going to look at this list, go all the way down to the canon fodder, find the cheapest oldest guy on the list, and then go to the independent league and find somebody worse insane him…
leftcoaster
I think a good pitching coach could turn Heaney around.
bxcrunner
I know I’m late on this, but I don’t see how Scherzer doesn’t get either 2/$75m-$80m or 3/$100-110m. Anyone agree?