J.D. Martinez left today’s game after suffering what the Red Sox termed as a left ankle sprain. The injury was suffered in bizarre fashion, as Martinez stumbled over second base while making his way out to right field to begin the bottom of the fifth inning. Martinez played the half-inning, but was then replaced by pinch-hitter Jose Iglesias in the top of the sixth.
While normally a DH in the Red Sox lineup, Martinez has continued to see his share of time in the field, with today marking his 36th game of the season as an outfielder. The Sox had no choice but to deploy Martinez in right field considering today’s game is in Washington, and thus the DH spot wasn’t available under National League rules.
The severity of Martinez’s injury remains to be seen, but should the slugger be limited in any way during at least the next few days, it certainly won’t help Boston’s chances of reaching the postseason, pending today’s results (or the results of a potential Game 163 playoff to determine an AL wild card berth). After a rough 2020 season, Martinez has bounced back with a solid performance this year, hitting .286/.349/.518 with 28 homers and a league-best 42 doubles over 632 plate appearances.
sad way for his sox career to end.
Thoughts and prayers for a speedy recovery.
Dots and stairs for a weedy discovery.
Can still opt in
Won’t.
The decision is whether or not to opt out, there is no opting in. LOL
Yipes!! Now BOS only has 2 DHs!!! Good thing the team is so deep. hahaha
Too bad the manager can’t set a line-up to win games.
The lead off man is hitting .213 in Sept and his OBP is .299.
You ask what Schwarber is doing, the guy who should be leading off?
He’s hitting .259 with an OBP of .388.
Can’t win games when the manager doesn’t understand how to set a line-up.
This week could have been so easy if the right line-up had been used. Schwarber has been on base the whole week. Bogey, JD and Devers following him would have created so many more runs without Hernandez striking out prior to their at bats.
Another fan who thinks he or she knows more about a team’s personnel than the person who manages the team. KD17, you doth flatter yourself too much.
CeyHey – Just because you don’t know baseball doesn’t mean all contributors are as uninformed as you. Read up on OBP and see why it’s good to be at the top of the order. You snarky dbag.
Give them some credit and remember how many others early on were circulated thru the leadoff spot before Cora found hernandez seemed best fit for a team without an obvious leadoff hitter.
I remember the only guy with any speed being there a cpl games was Duran and the only other who was tried seemed to be hurt most of the year with various injuries (Arroyo) who were of any use there, rest were failures, like Marwin Gonzalez several times.
Would have helped if the team was more patient and drew walks all around, but nearly all are un Boston like historically and wild hackers.. Like dalbec.
I still can’t believe that there’s fans that think they can run a baseball club than the managers or gm
Larmando – Ignorance is bliss. There are plenty than can run a team better than Cora. Heck, I’d have more confidence in you and I don’t know you!!
KD17, Look at every World Series in history. Then look at the OPB percentage of each team’s leadoff hitter. Overwhelmingly, the leadoff hitter wasn’t the guy on the team with the best OBP. In many cases, he wasn’t in the top three or even four. Would you like me to do your research for you?
Please post your stats to back that up Cey Hey. I would seriously like to see the stats.
Cey Hey – Want a baseball lesson? Fine I’ll give you one. Time has changed philosophies with regard to the top of the order. When I played the one hitter was fast and usually a middle infielder or center fielder with no power. The two hitter was the best bunter on the team.
In the 80s a guy named Bill James introduced the idea that the best hitter should be 3rd not 4th hitter and that bunting was a waste of an out so the speed stayed at the top of the order but the two hitter was no longer a bunter.
With the onslaught of modern metrics the nerds began looking at what is most important to score runs. OBP then became the focus of the top of the order. Since the first hitters bat the most you maximize total bases by putting them at the top of the order to bat the most. You would know this if you actually had baseball knowledge and not just a condescending attitude. Stacking the top of the order with your OBP guys is now a common practice within baseball but apparently neither Bloom nor Cora keep up with modern concepts or support them. I guess I should include you in that list too!!
So take that research and shove it where the sun don’t shine you condescending horse’s hind quarter!! hahaha
KD – I muted Cey a long while ago, you haven’t yet? LOL
BTW – With all the talk of Semien joining the Red Sox, how do you feel about their chances next season?
I think moneyball has just evolved a bit from OBP. It’s still very much valued (OBP that is) but the way to win games isn’t solely dictated by OBP.
Look at players like Travis Shaw and Joey Gallo.
Cey Hey2 hours ago
Overwhelmingly, the leadoff hitter wasn’t the guy on the team with the best OBP
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There actually is no optimal lineup. I think the biggest, and most recognized study indicated that the difference between a typical lineup and an optimal lineup was between 5-15 runs per year. But there are too many variables to even be sure of that.
There is an unoptimal lineup tho
It’s amazing how many actually believe Moneyball was the beginning of valuing OBP, just one of many myths.
Mike Gimbel was Bill James before Bill James.
Mike worked for Dan Duquette from 1994-1997 and his work was carried on for years after.
When Duquette made the decision to let Mo Vaughn walk, he brought in Jose Offerman.
“Jose is one of the best offensive players in the major leagues,” Duquette said in a statement. “He is a premier leadoff man who has had an outstanding on-base percentage throughout his career.” In fact Offerman had a .403 OBP the year prior to signing with Boston.
The myth that Moneyball included a new-found appreciation for OBP needs to stop. Beane’s Athletics weren’t the first, not even close.
Absolutely tstats!
Guaranteed if any team puts it’s slowest players with the lowest OBP at the top third of the lineup, and it’s worst hitters in the middle third of the lineup, and it’s best hitters in the bottom third of the lineup, that team will score far less runs than it should.
pwndroia – I’m not saying there is no place for non OBP guys. All I’m saying is that if you go back to 2018 and explain a major part of the success it was the structure of the line-up because more than 2/3 of the runs were accounted for by the first four hitters most of the season. Betts, Benny, JD and Bogaerts.
When you see the OBPs of the top of the order hitters you realize that with multiple guys with OBPs around .400 RBIs for JD came from guys being on in front of him far more often than most teams. That was because Boston had a perfect leadoff guy in Mookie because he combined the thinking of the past and the present by being a fast guy, who hit for average and power, stole bases and had a high OBP. Boston has NOBODY like that now so you have to consider which trait is least needed in a leadoff man.
Personally, I have always wanted to see Bogey lead-off with Devers hitting 2, JD hitting 3 and Schwarber batting fourth in a traditional clean up spot with his power. Moving Schwarber to the one hole works because he really walks a lot and that means the 2 hitter comes up frequently with a man on base. That presents lots of RBI opportunities but you must not be a ground ball guy in the two hole. Then the rest of the line=up follows traditional thinking with the 9 hitter having speed in front of the top of the order to help provide RBIs to the lead-off man.
Guys like Shaw, Gallo, Renfroe and Dalbec are 5 to 7 hitters due to their power and their propensity to strike out. Back to back you might see two Ks but there will be times when the top hitters are still on base when they poke one out of the park. I like both Renfroe and Dalbec as hitters but I think Verdugo needs to hit 5 so an additional base runner might be on for the bombers. That leaves the catcher at 8 and Kiki at 9. If you take their current order and turn it counter clockwise the 1 becomes the 9 and the 2 becomes the lead off hitter. Thus, the order is the same but you get one less at bat from a mediocre hitter and all the better hitters bat one place sooner. For me, that’s what’s wrong with Cora’s line-up lately. I don’t believe it maximizes the run scoring potential of the team.
Fever Pitch Guy
It’s amazing how many actually believe Moneyball was the beginning of valuing OBP, just one of many myths.
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This is true about all the current trends. All the stuff we do today was done when I was a kid 100 years ago. We had different names, but sometimes the same names.
The infield shifts are at least 70-80 years old, and we did the same in pickup games at age 10. We also discussed launch angle, though I don’t remember the exact name. We discussed lineups.
All we have now are computers to quantify what we already knew intuitively. And more publicity.
Bill James did an extensive study on the 1930 Cubs. That was the Hack Wilson year. The difference between their regular lineup, and a lineup batting Wilson 9th and the pitcher 1st, wasn’t that big. No one would do such a thing, but even making up terrible lineups doesn’t make a huge difference.
Joe, right you are!
Look at poor Dr. Atkins
For years and years he proclaimed that carbs and ketones and protein were the secrets to weight loss, not calories.
Few believed him, and then he slipped on ice and died.
Years later all we hear about is the Keto diet, as if it’s some sort of “new” concept.
It’s a shame that people either forget, or they are too young to know.
Fever Pitch Guy
Look at poor Dr. Atkins
For years and years he proclaimed that carbs and ketones and protein were the secrets to weight loss, not calories.
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I am a proponent of Atkins, but more for losing weight than a long-term diet. Of course, I also believe that there is no such thing as a long-term diet: they all fail once people get tired of them.
That said, he was 100% right about carbs. The government-inspired food pyramid was one of the stupidest things I have ever seen. I am but a simple accountant, and I knew immediately that it was absolutely wrong.
In 1992-2005, they had fats/oils listed as ‘use sparingly’. So they didn’t care to differentiate between butter (bad) and fish oils (great)? They didn’t care to differentiate between corn oil, for example, or olive oil, or more precisely, saturated, mono-saturated, unsaturated, etc.?
At the bottom, with 6-11 weekly servings, they included cereal, which is the worst food we have. You’re better off with ice cream, since it has at least some calcium in it.
You could’ve had a random 8th grader make up a better pyramid.
Yes I agree with nearly everything you wrote. It’s the same thing with cholesterol, not that bad depending on the source. Egg cholesterol = good.
The only thing I’d disagree with is cereal. I’ve eaten Cheerios for decades, it’s high in fiber and low in sugar and 100% oats which is fantastic for heart health.
Okay sorry for the commercial. LOL
I have an argument that the best hitter shouldn’t be any lower than 2. This is because the batting order should be considered a batting cycle. And, if you are analyzing a box score at the end of a loss, it sure sucks to see your best hitter batting 3 or 4 and in the on deck circle when the final out is made. My rationale goes like this: if you had psychic abilities and were making the batting order, surely you would want your best hitter to have the most at bats.
I watched Miguel Cabrera in the on deck circle when the final out was made far too many times.
Just my opinion…
Troy, here is Bill James disproving your theory:
Lineup Position Plate Appearances
1 767
2 749
3 732
4 714
5 697
6 680
7 661
8 643
9 625
As you can see, the #3 hitter gets only 17 less PA’s than the #2 hitter.
However, look how many more times the #3 hitter steps to the plate with runners on base:
Lineup Position Number of Times With Men on Base
1 259
2 323
3 351
4 363
5 333
6 314
7 304
8 293
9 288
Does 28 additional PA’s with runners on base make up for 17 fewer overall PA’s?
Absolutely!!!
Jim Leyland hit Miguel Cabrera #2 back in like 2015 or there abouts. He didn’t hit the worst hitter at #9. I want to say Austin Jackson hit #9 during those days.
And that’s why your stats don’t necessarily hold weight. You are presenting your stats to disprove my theory assuming that the entire lineups would be the same, or follow the same school of thought. They wouldn’t, so I don’t think those stats are completely relevant.
But, this theory of mine, as mentioned, is when you don’t have the prototypical leadoff hitter. Back then, the Tigers did not.
You forgot, better than the owners also. Next, they’ll go after the consessioners, parking lot attendants, ticket takers, ushers….etc
And that World Series ring in 2018.
Saw your earlier comment about let’s play 15……AL wildcard went wire to wire. Exciting stuff. I bet you remember the 1980 season when Dodgers made up 8 or 8 1/2 ( can’t remember exactly) games on the Astros in September to force a one game playoff.
If all managers can manage, then why are managers ever fired?
Nearly every kid in the Americas knows how the game is played. It’s not rocket science.
A lot of managers are former players. So to say they’re better at playing baseball than 99% of the people on the planet is legit. To say they’re smarter because they are better at playing baseball is just ignorant.
DBH1969 = If you ever played ball at a higher level you begin to observe the guys on your team who get the strategy and nuances of the game. You observe the little things like one guy has a great arm but can’t pick guys off first base because he simply doesn’t understand the game like the other lesser pitchers who observe the runner crossing over on his second step and that while crossing over it’s harder to get back to the base. So the better pitcher simply turns to the base for a pick off attempt and the other waits for the crossover and then moves. If you consider both players for being a manager it’s safe to say the second understands the nuances of the game better. Everyone has played with a team mate that simply got the subtleties of the game. Those players are more qualified to be managers than average joes off the street. The players that didn’t get it have no advantage over the average joe in my opinion because the average joe probably played ball at some level and understands the fundamentals as well. I agree with you completely.
The MLB manager like you said doesn’t have greater knowledge of the game than the average joe on the street, he got hired for a specific reason by ownership. In Cora’s case, he was bi-lingual and the young star from the Dominican Academy didn’t speak English. Cora was basically hired to be a baby sitter for the guy the front office wanted to be their franchise player, Rafael Devers. Did he have experience as a manager? NO. When he played was he an astute player? NO. Did some consider him lazy and lacsidazical? YES. Did he ever experience what it’s like to be a star player and the pressures that come with being a star? NOPE. Is it any surprise that Cora uses his bench more than he should and can’t relate to why hitters prefer to bat in a specific place in the order on a day to day basis or want to play every day and not rest as much as Cora forces them to? No, he only relates to the bench players and the Latin players which creates his bias in managing.
So basically Cora has two things that make him effective in BOS: 1) His heritage thanks to Devers 2) his ability to speak to the press without upsetting anyone. In BOS the press can be difficult and players like Ted Williams to manager John Farrell often struggled with their behavior. Having a guy who kept the press happy turned out to be his biggest asset until he was found guilty of cheating in Houston and accused of it in BOS. He was fired begrudgingly by ownership and we’ll never know if he promised to not tell the commissioner that the owners knew about what he was doing with the media room but clearly it has been rumored that he had leveraged his knowledge which allowed him to be invited back a year later. True or not true? We’ll never know for sure.
So, is Cora qualified to manager in=game decisions? Absolutely not. Was Cora a player like I discussed earlier who knew the nuances of the game? Absolutely not. Is he Bi-Lingual? YES. Does he keep the press at bay? YES. Are those qualifications for a good MLB manager? NO WAY. But at least Devers is happy to have a baby sitter.
Do the Red Sox win less games than they should because of his lack of knowledge related to in-game decision making, the handling of the pitching staff and the unbiased handling of the batting order? ABSOLUTELY. In 2018, I documented 12 loses that could be specifically traced to Cora mistakes. That team could have won 120 games with a better manager!!
Does Cora win games for the Red Sox? Not directly. There have been days when illogical moves have paid off and the team has won but unlike not playing a superstar when he’s had two days off that week already and the team doesn’t win while you excessively rest him, the causal relationship is less clear when they win. Cora depleting the talent by choice is a HUGE issue and it all goes back to his days as a scrub. He plays his bench more because he relates to them and that costs Boston many wins and that’s not counting his mishandling of the pitching staff or his biased line-ups that don’t maximize runs!!
Cora is and always will be nothing more than a bench coach from a skill set perspective.
KD – Great post as always!!
We can always put Schwarber at DH. I actually prefer that but will welcome JD back.
By the way, Cora managed this last game brilliantly.
pwndroia, Cora and Bloom have both had good seasons. Remember how Bloom was roasted on here for the Shaw pickup? Those two clutch homers he hit made a world of difference.
I too was against Bloom at first but I have come around. He found us the guys. Shaw is a great player, I’ve always liked him. An oddball hitter at .200 but knows how to work the count and get big hits.
I didn’t think we were any higher than fourth place to start and I still question some of Bloom’s moves but credit is due where credit is due.
I actually supported the Shaw signing. Just to clear that up.
It wasn’t a bad move at all. A calculated gamble on a slumping power bat who might pay dividends off the bench. Bloom has done a nice job buying time while implementing his long-range plan. It’s not unlike what the Giants have done. A rebuild in name but staying competitive. That probably bodes well for the Red Sox in 2022. Fans have a lot to look forward to.
I didn’t doubt the Shaw deal. Always loved that gritty guy. Very underrated.
Pretty much, all the pickups were excoriated, and almost always by the same posters. That’s the it goes in the RSN. Remember the opinion pieces when Bloom picked up Robles?
Shaw and Robles cost us almost nothing, and we’d likely be out of the playoffs without them.
A shame Iglesias is done for the year.
Yes Cora was brilliant in telling Devers to hit 2 homeruns, score 3 runs and drive in 4 runs against a 97-loss team!!
Great managing there!! LOL
Ahhh, I’m too happy they won to discuss Cora right now. The players did what they are capable of doing, all credit to them. I feel really good about Tuesday.
No Cora managed the pitching well. He pulled Sale before it got too ugly, and putting in the starters when we needed to helped lock down the win.
In a must-win game, any manager after seeing two line drive singles and two walks, including 4 straight balls, from a great pitcher like Sale would have pulled him. This is not the time to keep a guy in to “build his confidence”. Today was essentially a playoff game, they are all managed very differently.
I still agree with Cey Hey about Cora having a “feel” for the game that not other managers have.
I hated how Cora pulled Houck the other day but I accepted his gutsiness for the win. You can look at stats all you want, sometimes being gutsy is what you need to win and Cora is that.
Cora pulled Houck too even though he was cruising last game… he’s got a good feel for the game
I think no matter what Cora does, you will always defend him. That’s cool, it’s your prerogative. But any manager who is “gutsy” too often, which BTW most people more accurately describe as foolish risk-takers, will get burned more often than not.
Like bringing in Davis Saturday, when Soto just missed a grand salami. All it takes is one different event to completely change the outcome of games and the remainder of the season. A couple more feet and the Sox lose that game.
Cora is cocky, he thinks he’s smarter than everyone else. When he does things like pinch-hitting Arroyo, who has hardly played at all and has like 2 hits since July, the result was bad as expected but NOBODY here (other than KD and I) talk about it. Same thing with his decision to have Vazquez catch Eovaldi against the Yankees two weeks ago, despite everyone knowing Eovaldi is more comfortable and therefore better with Plawecki.
Will Cora make that same mistake again tomorrow? Stay tuned!
Fever Pitch Guy
Like bringing in Davis Saturday, when Soto just missed a grand salami.
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That cuts both ways. Soto could easily have gone deep against Ottavino. Just because a strategy works, doesn’t mean it is wrong. Maybe you can remind me-how many hits did Soto have in the series?
It’s obviously a small sample size, but when maybe the best hitter in baseball goes 0-8, maybe, just maybe, it has something to do with the way we pitched to him.
Joe you twisted that saying around! LOL
Just because a strategy works, doesn’t mean it was the best choice. And just because it doesn’t work, it doesn’t mean it was the worst choice.
Let’s see on Soto …
Sale struck him out twice
Richards intentionally walked him
Pivetta struck him out
Perez got him to line out
Houck got him to ground out and strike out
Brasier got him to strike out
ERod walked him twice and struck him out
Hernandez walked him
Robles walked him
Looks like all those Red Sox pitchers handled Soto very well, he didn’t hit the ball hard anywhere near the warning track in any of those plate appearances …. just with the bases loaded against Davis, to the deepest part of the park.
So are you saying Cora shared the pitching report on Soto with every Red Sox pitcher EXCEPT Davis?
But he got him out. Soto is a great hitter. This isn’t like saying he got Kieboom out.
Sorry Joe, but for me I don’t judge pitchers based on just outs. I judge them based on how good the contact off the pitchers.
If a pitcher retires the side on 3 deep fly balls to the CF warning track, I wouldn’t call that a good performance. It’s another example of why we should look beyond the numbers.
Sale is atrocious. Cora is why they are playing Tuesday. Tired of all the nonsense from the keyboard cowboys. Where are our Fire Bloom folks?
One of Cora’s strengths is his feel for the game. It’s hard to place a number on what that’s worth, but when you make the playoffs by the skin of your teeth in a difficult division, it’s worth something.
luckyh – RIGHT HERE. FIRE THAT PIECE OF CRAP BLOOM. Bring back DD so the team can actually win the division again. Also, have DD tell ownership that making nearly a third of a billion in profits warrants a wide open checkbook that will bring back rings not faint hopes of a miracle.
NONE OF US LEFT and WE CAN BE VOCAL IF YOU PREFER!!!
Giving Bloom credit for this year’s success is like giving a dog credit for fixing his flea problem when all the fleas jump off the dog. The dog did nothing more than simply stand there and watch the fleas drop off.
You want to give hm the misguided credit fine. But it’s ridiculous the man didn’t get a hit nor score a run. Give the credit where it belongs!!!
TO THE PLAYERS!!! Congrats to the Red Sox players for a fine season..
We’ve also had an eerie season. A lot of things were very unlucky. Look at Sale. Aside from the walks, he looks like he’s in form with 7 strikeouts but he still gave up homeruns every game.
Our rotation is better than their ERAS suggest- FIP is low and defense made their ERAS rise.
Yes give credit to the players… that Bloom signed and put on the field.
We should give credit to ALL the players, not just the ones Bloom signed.
Thanks for proving that caps lock =idiotic comments, well done. Didn’t your mommy ever tell you where players come from? Bloom did everything he was supposed to do. He restocked the farm and didn’t give it away for a rental.
@Fever Pitch Guy. Absolutely give credit to all players but KD suggested Bloom shouldn’t have credit when he in fact signed many of these players. It’s pretty hypocritical to say Bloom’s done a horrible job and then give credit to “all” the players (ones he’s signed included)
Pwndroia – Defense is on the manager. He puts Devers at third every day. I’ve been preaching a move for years to help the pitchers.
The top four pitchers of Sale, Eovaldi, Houck and Pivetta are rock solid. If you catch E=Rod on a good day he can be anywhere from solid to outstanding. If you catch him on a bad day, he’s a disaster. If there was a way to avoid the bad days then he’d be acceptable but there is no way to tell so you must take the good with the bad. That’s not optimal when you compare him to the other four. That’s why this off season a new lefty is needed in the rotation.
Sale like most TJ surgery guys will take time to get his command back. I remember the late Jose Fernandez when he came back from TJ. His stuff looked great. His whiffle ball curve was working awesome but it took him over two months to get his control back to a level close to where he was before surgery. I think Sale is experiencing that problem right now. Jose was in a better spot than Sale because Miami wasn’t winning and his coach believed in him.
It’s hard to understand who Cora believes in after this past week. Pulling Houck and Sale like he has changes the mental approach of a pitcher. A pitcher never likes worrying about being pulled early and that’s what Cora has done to both of them. Sale is such a team guy that he won’t complain but he should. Houck is just so happy to be there he won’t complain either. This is just an example of why I don’t like Cora as a manager handling a pitching staff. I think its out of his skill set and I think that has cost Boston many games since he arrived in 2018.
Next year someone needs to address the defensive issues beginning at 3B. I doubt it will happen but it’s 4 years overdue.
You call a guy with a 3.16 ERA who has helped win 7 of 9 games “atrocious” and you expect us to trust your judgment of Cora? LOL!!
He did not show up in the big spots. If you didn’t think his performance yesterday was atrocious you weren’t paying attention. It went bad fast. Carry on.
FPG – What pitcher has a 3.16 ERA. Was there a move I’m unaware of? Did we create a contract for a pitcher where we only count his good games or do we still have to take the 26 bad starts with the 6 good starts?
Was that a tongue in cheek comment? The string is getting difficult to follow so I wasn’t sure if your comment related to mine or one several levels up.
pwndroia – I believe the old comment I wrote a few days ago said the credit should go to the guys that took them to where they are. I gave all the players credit today but the comment you are referring to long after it was written is that I believe certain players were CRITICAL to the season and others were COMPLIMENTARY/REPLACEABLE pieces.
In the first half, the All-Stars earned their spots for exceptional contributions. They were NOT brought to the team by Bloom.
Of the millions of acquisitions made by Bloom I recognize that even a blind squirrel finds a acorn every once in a while so Bloom found Renfroe and others that were excellent complimentary players. I also mentioned that it came at a huge opportunity cost. Example – Semien went to Toronto for a steal. That steal could have been Boston’s and could have solved the 2B problem for years at a higher cost. Could the team afford it? Yes, in 2022 they’ll have over $60M available under the cap if they are willing to spend it.
If Kiki goes to TOR and BOS gets Semien we might have chased TB for the division crown. He set the record for all time home runs in a single season by a 2B!!! Opportunity cost is one of the biggest challenges for a GM. Bloom is supposed to know talent but instead he simply knows cheap talent. That’s the problem with a small market GM working for a Big Market team. He can’t get the big guns that matter, just the complimentary players who are interchangeable parts like Kiki and Renfroe. Good choices for what it’s worth but not optimal choices.
So, yes the players not the owners, GM or manager deserve all the credit but be fair some players deserve a bigger portion of the credit and that was the point of mine that you’ve spun into an insult on Bloom. It’s not an insult, it’s a fact. Without Bogey, JD, Devers Eovaldi and Barnes the Red Sox would never have had a chance to make the post season. If you swap any of those players for someone available in free agency you wouldn’t be in the playoffs. I truly believe if you swapped Renfroe, Hernandez and even Verdugo for a free agent the team still could have made the play-offs. That’s what distinguishes a complimentary player from a critical player. Is that Bloom hate or simply a fact? You can call it Bloom hate if you like but I call it fact that simply aligns with the idea that Bloom is an inappropriate hire for a Big Market team..
KD – It was in reference to someone calling Sale “atrocious”.. LOL
3.16 is Sale’s current ERA, and probably Stone Cold Steve Austin’s too ;O)
KD- you are forgetting one critical thing when criticize Bloom and that is he didn’t have an unlimited checkbook and there was no way that they were going to spend half there budget on one guy Semien so he wasn’t even an option. I really hate when guys like you try and compare a 7 million signing to an 18 million signing. I guess if you believe that Bloom had a blank check and decided to stay under or very close to the first Lux tax level on his own the yes you are right Bloom did a terrible job. If you live in reality and realize that he had a budget to work with and couldn’t just go sign anyone then you will realize Bloom did a pretty decent job with what management gave him to work with . If you think most GM’s don’t sign a ton of players that get released or turn out to be not very good acquisitions then I suggest you look at what your hero signed DD signed this offseason and it’s the same with almost all teams. Just look it up and will see all the contracts that almost all GM’s. So far I think Bloom has done a pretty good job we will see if he builds on it. I think your beef is with ownership not Bloom if you really analyze it.
Bruin – That’s wrong! Bloom actually was going to sign Semien! But Cora has been really tight with Hernandez for a long, long time and wanted his fellow Boriaca. And BTW both Hernandez and Semien share the same agent.
How much did Bloom like and want Semien? So much that he has already stated the only possible big free agent signing this winter is Semien, he still wants him!!
Fever that may be true maybe Bloom wanted Semien but it still doesn’t change the fact that Semien cost 18 million and Kike cost 7 million. It also doesn’t change the fact that the Kike signing was one of the best this offseason.
Bruin it’s hard to say how the team would have performed with Semien instead of Hernandez. Let’s assume they still keep the team payroll under the Luxury Tax threshold, perhaps they don’t trade for Ottavino or sign Richards, Marwin, Santana, Perez or Andriese (any combination that totals $11M).
Would the team be better with Semien and without some of those other guys? I’d say definitely yes.
As for the Hernandez signing, let’s wait to see what happens next year. If he puts up another .607 OPS like he did 5 years ago, the contract wouldn’t be viewed as a good one.
Fever Pitch Guy
Bloom actually was going to sign Semien! But Cora has been really tight with Hernandez
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Dude, please don’t tell me that you believe that. I work at an organization that’s a fraction the size of the RS, and the best I could *might* get someone an interview. And there is no way anyone gets hired by being a friend.
The chances of Bloom hiring someone, at an important position, for close to 10% of their payroll, is probably -0-.
In addition, it isn’t like Tito, who was here 8 years, and had some juice. Even then, there is no chance Theo was paying $18M to a player for no other reason than he was a friend of Tito’s. But in Cora’s case, he was just re-hired. There is always a chance he voiced his opinion that Kike was a really good player.
But the chance that Bloom signed Kike instead of Semien, because of was Cora’s friend, is -0-. It would be the equivalent of me going to my board of directors and telling them “my friend is looking for a job, so if you could hire him to be CEO, I’d appreciate it”.
“Can’t win games when the manager doesn’t understand how to set a line-up.”
They came in second place in the only division in baseball that had four teams with 90+ wins. Clearly this is a mismanaged team.
sabermetric – Why credit the eagle for his beautiful flight when you can credit the air for existing and providing him somewhere to soar!!
I’m thinking the eagle is the talented one and you think the air is!!
KD – Love your post, great analogy as always!!
How many rings do you have?
Honestly, does KD have like 5 accounts where he gives himself the thumbs up?
pwndroia – ONE ACCOUNT unlike the paid influencers from the Red Sox that frequent this site.
@KD17 I was only kidding by the way. I’m sure you have supporters, they’re just not as vocal. I was on your side once.
pwndroia – My side? Pro player anti ownership, Bloom and Cora? And now you aren’t? I don’t see myself as not on Bloom’s side. I see myself setting expectations for a GM and him not coming close to fulfilling those fan demands for a good GM. With Cora, I simply consider him despicable for cheating the game that provided him with an exceptionally well paying career. Integrity means something to me so I will never like Cora. I really don’t understand why that is controversial. I suppose it’s a cultural thing.
Ownership is not a favorite of mine after 20 years of supporting them wholeheartedly because of the well documented issues with racism and their lack of caring for the fan base after being so good to it for 20 years. Their change is confounding. Senility? I have no idea how a group of people buy a franchise and spend money in the vicinity of the most over=spending team in the history of baseball and then give up their franchise player for a few dollars while raking in 1/3 of a billion a year and having their assets rise in value by billions.
If someone can explain why that makes sense please provide that insight. It completely escapes me. And the worst part about it is that financially they would have been better off making the big deal with Mookie because of the added profits from winning more rings over the next 20 years. Now, the likelihood is significantly down which lowers future profits. It’s a lose-lose situation. Fans lose out on a franchise player and ownership loses future profits. It makes no sense.
For the record, my comments on this sight are more like a person watching a car race and commenting on it. This car looks fast, this car looks slow, this driver appears to have some issues and this sponsor seems to be under funding his team because the pit crew seems to be less talented than other pit crews. No sides are taken just opinions are presented based on observations and knowledge of car racing. That’s all. No sides!! I don’t expect to agree with anyone all the time and I don’t expect to disagree with anyone all the time. It’s the people on the site that provide opinions with facts that support their opinions that I enjoy discussing topics with. To the insulting hoard, take a hike. Don’t read it if you can’t be civil if you disagree. Or better yet, mute me, please!!
KD – Great post as always!!!!!
Mookie is a bad investment. I loved him and hated to see him go, but look at him this year. He has hip and back problems already. It was time to move on. They got his best years. Wait and see what happens with the Yanks and Judge. They’re stuck with him now and will have to pay him big bucks. Letting Mookie go was the right move, and was a Ray’s move. They get the best and give others the rest. I like what ownership is doing and am fine with restocking the farm and getting under the lux. They were losing draft picks if they kept spending. DD’s way works for a bit, but then you have to reset, and start again. It’s about balance, then you can Bloom.
luckyh
Mookie is a bad investment. I loved him and hated to see him go
========================================
I think this year was an aberration, but players never get younger, faster, or less injury-prone. He should be an AS for another 3-4 years, but paying a guy until he is 39 years old almost never works out well.
Mookie is a great player there is no doubt about it but I believe there is a better then average chance that he does not age well.
I hope I am wrong but there are some things that really don’t bode well for Mookie simply from a long term viability standpoint. He is having some nagging injuries his defense in the outfield is slipping and his speed is definitely decreasing. He still has a quick bat but if you watched him in Boston compared to what he looks like now his bat speed is just a touch slower. these are the kind of signs I expect to see from a 32 year old not a 28 year old player. Mookie does have some great intangibles and I think that his baseball IQ is very high and he may be able to compensate that way only time will tell. The problem for Mookie is he relies on a lightning fast bat and that appears to be slipping just a little. it will be interesting to see how he does moving forward is this the beginning of a slow decline or will the old Mookie be back for a few years before the inevitable decline. I’m guessing at a minimum the last 5 years of that contract are going to look very bad. We shall see Lucky
Great post Bruin!
I love Mookie, but the way he plays the game reminds me of outfielders like Freddie Lynn who kept getting injured because of their all-out style of play.
Most concerning to me is Mookie’s hip injury, they typically don’t go away.
Remember Victorino? I loved to watch the guy, but halfway thru 2013, I said that would be nothing left of him after the season. One season was worth the entire 3-year contract, but it was almost painful to watch him.
Mookie’s hip issues likely will never go completely away. There’s only so many cortisone shots that help.
Bruin1012 – For me, Mookie was worth it since the ownership group is wealthy beyond comprehension and their annual profits wouldn’t have been dented by paying it but also because he was an ideal player.
What is one of the hardest things to find in baseball? A great leadoff hitter. Add to it his speed, his OBP, his baseball acumen and his defense and you have a top 10 player for years. Does ANYONE sign a contract where the last years are better than the early years? No. Do the later years cost as much based on the time value of money? Nope. In 10 years the amount paid is 1/2 that paid in year 1 from a time value of money perspective.
Will Mookie have a steep drop off? There are usually many early indicators that suggest what might happen. Is he over-weight? No. Does he have a history of injuries? No. Does he use his size to create his power? No he uses his wrists like Ernie Banks. Does he do a good job of conditioning himself like Tom Brady? Maybe not to the degree Brady does but clearly he stays physically fit year round.
For me, his degradation of talent should be slower than Trout, Pujols, Harper, Machado and AROD. Why? Because of his body type and his athleticism. If he is a highly productive lead-off man for 5 to 8 years will his contract be worth it? I say yes. Does it matter if he drops off in years 9 and 10 to an average player? No, it’s expected and built into the contract.
The Red Sox owners are playing with funny money because they reap such a large profit that suggesting a luxury tax amount would break the bank is ridiculous. When DD created this prime time ball club he planned the details in a way very few have recognized.
Take away the mistakes prior to him showing up he had a plan to maintain spending under the cap while maintaining a Division Winning level of talent through 2022. He felt strongly like any GOOD GM would that prior mistakes are not on his ledger. He defined a talent make-up that would stay under the cap with a long-term contract for Mookie and sustained greatness.
He didn’t foresee how bad Cora was and that’s on him but overall he did a great job creating what Bloom promised to build (which was really maintain not build) with respect to sustained excellence. The Pedroia injury hurt his plan but didn’t derail it. The injuries in early 2019 and Cora’s destruction of Sale cost the team in 2019 and 2020 not to mention Cora’s mishandling of the pitching staff creating a 10 game deficit in 2019 by the end of April. DD could not have seen how incredibly destructive Cora was to continuity of winning.
Cora deserved to be fired in 2019 for his poor performance before he got caught cheating twice. DD wanted Mookie in Boston because he recognized the gem he had. A young lead-off hitter with power and speed and a gold glove outfielder. How many players in baseball have that skill set? 30 so one for each team? No. Maybe 2 or 3. DD and Friedman evaluated the gem and realized in an an industry where Big Market teams have next to no spending limits Mookie was one of the exceptional players that makes for championship teams. LAD was smart to sign him and if he gets hurt or plays all years without injury the contract was both financially sound and imperative to bringing the talent level of the team to a championship level.
They didn’t stop spending forever. The penalties incurred for exceeding the tax too many years are severe. You need to have a mix of young players and big money players. Not Losing money and picks for the draft are worth hitting the reset button. They will spend again. They will also have the likes of Whitlock and Houk on the cheap, and a restocked farm. They are ahead of schedule. Mookie’s hip injury is concerning. The back not as much. Would you take 4-5 years of the 10 at $30 mil each year? This year he was solid, but not excessively so. He didn’t need to be though, but I’d rather they spend on pitching. It was tough to lose him, but glad they did right by him, and he’s on a great team.
Yes, agreed! I was right behind home plate when he hit the grand salami in Game 6, ranks right up there with Damon’s grand salami in Game 7. I’m sure I don’t have to state the years. LOL
As I have said numerous times KD the leadoff hitter Kike is not the problem. Since the middle of June when he seemed to of figured out he is the leadoff hitter and what that meant he has been one of the best leadoff hitters in baseball. He has had a nearly .400 OBP during that time and if you take out the 10 games right after he came back from Covid and looked completely lost he has been a .400 OBP guy. His WRC+ which is a very important stat especially for a leadoff hitter has been near elite as well since Mid-June. The bottom line is KIke is not the problem.
You have all that open space in the field, and you trip over a small base? I guess he gets confused about his whereabouts around the diamond when he isn’t running counter-clockwise.
OTOH, Rafael Devers is a BEAST!!!!
Get Biden out of office cuz Devers runs DC
Fletcher, Admit it. Rush Limbaugh told you to say that. Oh, wait…
Doh!
Looks like Schwarber and Dalbec will be in the lineup on tuesday
They would have been even if JD didn’t get hurt.
That’s because Jose can’t play anymore, and Arroyo has hardly played at all the past two and a half months, so either way it was going to be Hernandez at 2B and Schwarber in LF or at DH …. unless Cora goes through with playing Dalbec at 2B, which hopefully won’t happen.
Shaw at 2B? He might not be the best but has played the position.
Do you want Schwarber at DH and Shaw at 2B or Kike in CF, Shaw at 2B, and Schwarber at DH?
Shaw at 2b?
I haven’t heard anything about Shaw taking grounders at 2B, unlike Dalbec.
I was suggesting this since Shaw has played second base before. Not sure about Dalbec.
Shaw played 2B only for about 39 games in 2018, not counting 2 games in 2019.
Dalbec has never played the position, not even in the minors. IMO the dude is way too big for it.
Pwndroia – Without JD who are the 9 best hitters?
C – Plawecki and Vazquez
1B – Shaw
2B – Hernandez
SS – Bogaerts
3B – Dalbec
LF – Schwarber
CF – Verdugo
RF – Renfroe
DH – Devers
This is a perfect transition moment for the future!!! DEVERS at DH!!
Cora was freaking genius today. Won the game using five starters. Five. Who does that? Genius. Thanks to the brilliance of Bloom constructing this great team, the 2021 Red Sox are in the postseason. Brilliance. Sure, the players won the game today, they got it done. But management of this team is spectacular.
Spectacular. Brilliance. Genius. That’s why there’s a game at Fenway on Tuesday. Indeed.
Agreed. Tuesday will be tough but let’s do our best.
whyhayzee – Enjoyed your comedy!! I don’t think people understand sarcasm as much as they should. It’s a great form of humor!!
WhyHay – You haven’t watched baseball in a while apparently. LOL
Perez is not a starter, hasn’t started a game since August 5th.
Richards is not a starter, hasn’t started a game since August 8th.
So only three starters were used.
Who does that? A manager who mismanages his pitching staff and runs out of reliever options despite having TEN (10) RELIEVERS IN HIS BULLPEN!
There’s a game on Tuesday because Devers is one of the best hitters in the game, and because Cora’s managerial errors cost the Red Sox the division title.
Yes Indeed is where Cora will be looking for a job if he continues to make horrible managerial decisions and his luck runs out, such as when Davis came within a couple feet of giving up a gamewinning grand salami to Soto in the 8th inning Saturday..
Cora is a big reason why they are there. I don’t agree with his cheating, but the players play for him and love him. Pulling Sale after walking in a run on 4 pitches is best for the team. It’s a team game. Sale didn’t have it. It was win or go home. How about E-Rod 8 pitches out of the pen? How many 8 pitch innings does he through. Some guys came up big. They should put the picture in the Sox locker room that Cole’s wife posted on social media of their kid with a broom after the Yanks swept. Both teams have been so up and down it’s crazy. One game and it’ll be interesting to see who shows up.
You think the Red Sox played for Cora in the Baltimore series? The series they lost while half-heartedly swinging at the first pitch so many times? How about the Yankee series, when they got swept and Vazquez make a careless error and then didn’t bother to argue about a bad call? Or Dalbec giving up on TWO foul popups because they were within 10 feet of the dugout? And BTW look at that first dropped popup and you’ll see his teammates never bothered to come protect him from a possible fall.
But don’t let facts get in the way of your Cora worship!
No Cora worship, read for your agenda much? just look at the difference between the players with him and without. They love the guy.
luckyh – Your argument falls apart when you look at 2019. Did the players suddenly hate him? No. Games are won and lost by players. There is no causal relationship between the love for a coach and the performance of players. Those are TV and movie fabrications. You get a hit because you see the ball and hit it not because you love the manager.
Cora is a baby sitter with no in-game skills. This is and always will be the issue with Cora. He’s not qualified but you are right the Latin players love him.
I’m not seeing it from the rest of the team. I guess we could go to KC and ask Benny. Or maybe we could go to LAD to ask Price and Betts. Do you think the non Latin players like him or do you think they tolerate him since he’s their coach?
Dalbec was playing better than Devers at the start of his career but everyone said he needed to be replaced. Bias? Better than Devers and doesn’t lead baseball in errors but he doesn’t get marketed by the Red Sox front office like Devers did. Bias? Devers was targeted as their franchise player of the future in 2015 while playing in the Dominican summer league. Is it shocking they dismissed Mookie to make room for Devers as their guy? What I can’t understand is why they didn’t move Devers to DH to be the next Papi back in 2017 when it was obvious he couldn’t field. Four years later he still can’t field and the pitching staff can attest to how much that has hurt the team and their individual performances. Bias?
There are lots of internal problems with the Red Sox and non Latin players are probably wanting out as soon as possible due to the actions of the organization since 2019. Devers is on a pace to have the greatest number of errors by a 3B in the history of baseball but no talks about moving him! That speaks volumes to the bias in the organization. Mookie and Price that speaks volumes to the bias in the organization. Benny, Chavis being shipped out after extremely small opportunities to prove themselves compared to Devers? That speaks volumes to the bias in the organization.
When you say players worship him be clear the players who gain an advantage from him worship him, the others tolerate him because they have to. Check the dugout expressions during games if you don’t believe me. Love among the players exists but it’s only the select few that love Cora along with the media and the front office. The others see the bias daily and the enormous mistakes he makes in managing the team.
In 2018 when Cora got hired It took JD nearly a half year of arguing with Cora when he wanted to sit him too much so some of Cora’s favorites on the bench could play. This isn’t a new problem. Cora has been biased since day one. Yet another reason to despise the guy as a manager unless you are Devers!! Let’s qualify your statement to SOME of the players love Cora.
KD you have an interesting way of comparing apples and oranges.
There is no comparison between Devers and Dalbec one was 20 when he made it the big leagues and the other was 25. Was Dalbec’s 26 year old stats better then 21 year old Devers yes maybe a little but not much and that was with the terrific last month and half of baseball. Anyone with even a little knowledge could see that Devers was going to hit and that he had a chance to be a pretty special bat. I have to admit I was wrong about Devers on defense I thought he was going to get his errors under control but sadly I was wrong there.
Look I like Dalbec I think he has a chance to be pretty good and the reality is, while im not a huge Cora fan, he did seem to stick by his player. I never heard Cora saying that they were going to stop playing Dalbec. I think Dalbec is what he is a guy with tremendous power but is going to look awfully bad at the plate sometimes if he can get his K% down to below 30% then he has a chance to be better then just a boom or bust player that looks great when he is locked in and terrible when he is off. Arguing Dalbec against Devers is just a ridiculous argument just lost Kike has looked at the plate.
Bruin1012 – To me age is NOT significant. Teams evaluate players for their readiness to compete at the MLB level. The day they feel you are ready and they promote you is the day your experience clock starts ticking.
Nobody pitches differently to a 20 year than a 25 years old. They pitch to a rookie differently based on experience!! The term rookie was created to define an experience level not an age level. Why? Because age doesn’t matter!!
If you think going to college should downgrade a player at the MLB level because it makes him older that’s just silly!! His accomplishment of getting to the MLB is what matters whether he is 10, 20 or 25. His performance once he gets there is his career yardstick for success. The length of the yardstick can be compared at any point in time to someone else with comparable service time. That is how the growth of a player is defined and measured..
You keep trying to turn this into a contest and I’m documenting the career yardstick of success for two players and noting that one has been more successful in the same time frame. That’s an indication of greater growth and productivity by one over the other.
I do this because Devers has been the chosen one since age 15 when two very well known Latin scouts introduced him to the BOS front office. They declared him the chosen one in articles from 2015. That’s why Mookie was expendable. That’s why Devers is allowed to make 100 errors in his first four seasons. It’s the front office bias that has nearly brought the organization to it’s knees. Thanks to one of your comments I researched Devers back to childhood and was very surprised to read how he was ordained the future of the Red Sox back in 2015.
Pointing out that Dalbec is far more deserving of the marketing hype and playing time given to Devers is my way of expressing my disappointment that players aren’t treated equally or fairly in the Red Sox organization. Favoritism and bias exist everywhere throughout the organization, from the owners to Cora. As a fan, I want that to change in the Red Sox organization. Remove the politics and evaluate players on performance..
So, if you actually think comparing people at the same age is more accurate than comparing them based on experience there isn’t much to discuss. I don’t hold it against players who go to college and I also don’t believe players graduate to the majors hap haphazardly. They graduate when they are thought to be ready so that makes the measurement of their accomplishments fair based on experience not age..
Excellent reply KD!
C’mon Lucky, you really gonna try to pin last year on the manager? Absurd.
You are one of those I am only right, caps lock and all. I never said only Latin players love him. That was your idiotic comment, not mine. I said the players love him. That’s your bias (putting it mildly), not mine. Dismissed Mookie? Mookie was a business, budget decision which I 100% agree with. Keeping Devers over Mookie is ridiculous to say when one really has nothing to do with the other. If Devers wasn’t on the team they keep Mookie? Benny was another budget decision. Where do you put Devers? DH would be fine if JD wasn’t there, but until then 3B is the place. I don’t have a problem with moving him though, and don’t disagree with that. I also like Dalbec, and hope he plays and comes up big today. You see what you want to see with Cora. When the Sox swept the Yanks, Yankee announcers were complimenting Cora and his managing skills compared to Boone sitting staring. He was pumping up his guys. I don’t agree with what Cora did with the Stros and was not happy that he came back, but what he has done with the team can’t be denied. What absolute nonsense you post about Latin players. Glad Fever Pitch is here to stroke your posts though.
Never did that, but carry on with your nonsense. I am referring to the player reaction when Cora was canned.
Lucky not sure if you’re responding to me, but you said “look at the difference between the players with Cora and without”.
Which means you think last year’s disaster wouldn’t have happened if Cora was still the manager.
Are you really gonna double down on that notion? Especially after the horrific 2019 season in which nearly the entire 2018 team was brought back?
luckyh – Many people turn their heads to racism. Also, racism isn’t always about minorities. Racism is driven by power so if a group of decision makers in the Red Sox organization with power choose to promote specific groups of players over others then it qualifies as racism. If the two best black players are given away like Betts and Price then we are talking racism. It’s not like the entire world doesn’t know there are diversity issues in the Red Sox. From the owners, to the media, to the front office to the farm system. I’m not saying anything new or that is not understood by many, many fans and baseball people. Rumor has it that Mookie wanted out because of it but we’ll never know for sure..
If you choose to think a convicted cheater is good for the club, that’s your right to do so. If I choose to think of him as scum that doesn’t deserve to be in baseball after he cheated the game, then it’s my right to do so. Many former players hate him for embarrassing the sport, especially since he was bench player who didn’t appreciate how fortunate he was to be part of the game..
I prefer the Red Sox organization to do things with integrity and hiring Cora is in direct conflict with that belief. You choose to praise the guy and while that turns my skin I accept your right to that wrong opinion.
As far as bringing up money with respect to Mookie, that’s a rationalization that the ownership group floated and then retracted after the damage was done. Annual profits of $300M or more certainly doesn’t dictate that a $9M a year raise for Mookie was going to break the bank especially when the book value of the Red Sox organization has grown by billions since the ownership group bought them. Mookie was NOT moved for money nor was Price or Benintendi..
Are you aware of the fact that Benny’s career numbers are better than Kiki’s and that his 2021 performance was affected by injuries but still was comparable to Verdugo, Hernandez and Dalbec? That’s why paying another team to take him away can’t be about money, it has to be about something else. It might be how Cora mishandled him by changing his batting approach. It might be a diversity issue that shows BOS is diverse by sending white players away like the black players. It’s hard to understand but clearly his performance didn’t cause the forced move nor his personality since he’s well liked. So what then? I say it was caused by a front office bias and will leave it at that without further proof of the specifics. No matter what the cause, it was a mistake based on the numbers. Just like Mookie was a mistake based on the numbers and Price was a mistake based on the numbers. Is it Bloom’s fault or ownership’s fault for these mistakes? We’ll never know for sure but I think it’s fair to blame both.
Lets conclude with an agreement to disagree. I think Cora should get no credit for 2018’s good year, 2019’s bad year (except for the obvious issues with Spring Training prior to the west coast start to the season) and 2021’s success. I never have walked to the plate and got a hit because of a manager so I don’t believe they deserve credit when a player has a great year. I never managed a player and thought I deserved credit when they had a good day, week or year.
Nobody helps the player perform, that has to do with skill, luck and his clutch factor that day. None of those attributes are provided by the manager.
Lately, JD has looked lost at the plate. His injury could help in the short run as it gets Bobby D at first and Kyle S as the DH. One game at a time now.
Not really. This season, JDM, outside of his first ten-day torrid streak, has been as consistent as I have ever seen in my entire life. Even looking at small sample sizes, the only way to view him as looking lost, is if you take a 15-inning sample size. Not 15 games, 15 innings.
Joe I think it depends on what you look at.
Like you said he started the season great, but he’s been very average and un-JD-like ever since. The power really dried up, 9 dingers in April and then a consistent 3-4 every month since.
If May thru Oct JD is the new norm, you’re looking at a DH who hits 24 taters with an .800 OPS
I think you’d agree, that type of player isn’t worth $20M which is why I really don’t think he’ll opt out. And I’m not even factoring in the chronic back pain, last year’s performance, or the embarrassment of turning an ankle tripping over 2B while heading out to his position. His value is the lowest it’s been since 2013.
My response was about Nobby saying that JD ‘looked lost’. He basically had one weak game, with an 0-3 and a walk. That’s as close to irrelevant as one can get. In his previous 3 games, he had a 1.417 OPS. Nobby can cherry-pick any range of September games, and not find a bad streak. It was a ridiculous statement, and it annoys me when people go to the trouble of posting, but not go to the trouble of basic research.
That said, I am a complete agnostic on JD. Cherry-picking a tiny bit myself, from 4/30 thru season end, JD has an .823 OPS, with 4 HRs four months in a row. He’s not really worth $20M, but he isn’t far from it.
It would be nice if he could opt out, and we could QO him, but if he doesn’t opt out, he still serves a useful purpose. Casas isn’t ready, and I don’t think Schwarber will be worth his asking price. So we don’t really have a glut of offensive players looking for a spot at DH.
Vazquez
Dalbec
Kike
Bogaerts
Devers
Verdugo
Duran
Renfroe
JDM
The only marginal improvement I can see on that is maybe having JD opt out, slide Bogaerts to 3B, and try to find a glove-first SS for 3 years in order to bridge to Mayers. But I am fine either way.
I agree Joe. I know how a player “looks” is based strictly on perception, but personally I didn’t see anything all season that concerned me.
How did you get the .823 OPS from 04/30 to EOY? is there an easy way to calculate it for a specific time range covering multiple months?
It just seems high because his May thru EOY OPS is as follows:
.801
.788
.806
.787
.847
Since each month consistently had between 101 and 110 PA’s, I figured adding them all up and dividing by 5 would get me close to your number. However I got .806 instead, if anything it should be even lower, because the two highest PA months (May & June) had OPS of .801 and .788 respectively.
1-Like I said, I cherry-picked it a little to include 4/30, when he hit two HRs. But I think he was remarkably consistent. Not great, but no real slumps.
2-Baseball Reference has a great tool, which is why I slip between BR and FG when producing stats like WAR.
Go into BR, go into the RS, click on JD’s name. Click on a tab called game logs, towards the top. Click on 2021 and that shows his stats for every game. In this case. click on the 4/30 game, then scroll to the bottom. As long as the 4/30 is highlighted, then it is anchored/locked, whatever. Then you do the same for the 10/3 game. That will show all his stats for that time period.
You can do the same for any complete year periods, including WAR and actual. What I find useful is that when you do this for WAR, it not only gives you WAR/year, it also gives you WAR/650 PAs. That’s important when trying to assess a value when players have missed time.
Sydergaard, for example, has a WAR/year of 2.4 from 2016/2021. Not bad, but not exciting. But his WAR/162 games is 4.3. If one believes that his injuries are non-repetitive, then 4.3 is really good.
Awesome, thanks Joe for the guidance on stat date ranges.
Yeah I didn’t think one game would have a material difference, but I guess with two homeruns it did.
Joe Brady, Iglesias is your glove first short stop.
If JD opted out, Bogaerts went to 3rd, and Iglesias came back at SS, that wouldn’t be bad at all.
JD Martinez is still a good player, but he is a long way from from the 2018 – 2019 player he was:
2B – 70
3B – 4
HR – 79
BA – .317
OBP – .392
OPS – .985
Stats are 2018-2019 combined from baseball reference. If he opts-in ok, but I would rather haveSchwarber for next year
I have watched every game this season and for the last week, JD was swinging and missing the low and outside pitch consistently. I think his back is kicking up because he is reaching that pitch and driving it to right.
Joe Brady – I like your suggestion:
Iglesias – SS
Bogaerts – 3B
Devers – DH
Hernandez – 2B
Dalbec – 1B
Improves the infield defense.
Renfroe – RF
Verdugo – CF
Schwarber- LF
The outfield defense would not be very good.
If Schwarber goes elsewhere then Verdugo is in LF and a CF is needed which I am not sold on Duran as being the answer. I might suggest Hernandez stay in CF and acquire a 2B.
Nobby – JD is hitting .286 with a .353 OBP in September. Are you talking like the last 7 days when he was 7 for 22 with a HR, 4 RBIS and 4 Runs Scored?
Lost at the plate? No evidence of that in the numbers but he did trip over 2nd base running to the outfield.
Lost at the plate? Maybe you are thinking of Kiki Hernandez who has NOT hit for a month now but still leads off each critical game. Sept numbers of .213 average and OBP of .294. Now that’s lost at the plate!! JD’s numbers suggest he’s fine and has been the entire season despite being dropped in the batting order for no reason.
Anytime you lose a top 3 hitter on your team the replacement is going to be a step down. Fortunately for Boston their manager sits top 9 hitters so his favorites can play so pulling Dalbec from the bench is going to be a far lesser drop off than say pulling Iglesias or Kiki or Arroyo off the bench.
Yup Kike has looked absolutely lost at the plate in the last two weeks. I think you should you take a look at his numbers in the last two weeks and you will see that he has been very good at the plate. Sure if you want to throw in the numbers after he came back from Covid and did truly look lost at the plate then yes for 9 or so games after a nasty bout with Covid he did look bad and lost at the plate. Since that time lets see since 9/18 he has been back to the top notch leadoff hitter he has been since Middle June and thats just facts. I know you don’t like Kike but the fact is since middle June he has been one the very best leadoff hitters playing gold caliber defense in center and excellent defense at 2nd as well just admit what everyone else already knows Kike was an excellent pickup and has been one of the best signings in last offseason.
Bruin1012
I think you should you take a look at his numbers in the last two weeks
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I did just what you suggested. His numbers over the past 14 days are remarkably weak. Only a .825 OPS, with only 3 HRs in 53 ABs. At that pace, he wouldn’t even hit 35 HRs over 600 ABs. And only a 9/7 K/W.
Bruin1012 – So I take it you are a Kiki fan. As a lead off hitter? OK
Career – Average 242 OBP .318 OPS+ 100
2021 – Average 250 OBP .337 OPS+ 107 (lower than Benny!!)
If i just gave you those two lines would you jump to the conclusion this guy is a lead off man? Low average low OBP. That’s not my definition of a lead off man but everyone has a right to their opinion.
I try very hard to never CHERRY PICK numbers since there are so many on this site that do use biased data to prove their points..
Baseball Reference has a pull down for SPLITS that show the numbers so I checked his 6 individual months to see a more detailed view rather than the total year. He had a bad April (25 games), a better May in that it reflects his career numbers (16 games), another bad month that resembles April (24 games) so his first half saw 49 games with bad numbers and 16 games with career comparable numbers. That’s really not good for a lead off man.
In July he had his best month so far .274 average and .381 OBP. The OBP qualifies him to bat lead off. (25 games). August was even better raising his average to .305 and his OBP to .426 in 22 games. That Kiki can lead off on my team. 22 games out of 96 for the year isn’t impressive but clearly he was hot in August. With 5 games left in August he got sick. He missed from Aug 27th to Sept 7th. When he came back he went 4 for 30 in his first week back. The next week he got hot (ok warmer is probably more accurate) and went 5 for 17 with 3 walks. The next week he went 6 for 21 with 5 walks. The most recent week saw him go 5 for 21 with 3 walks. These must be the performances that are sticking in your head as representations of his lead man skills. The numbers don’t lie. In a season with 26 weeks he had about 4 weeks that were good enough to be the lead off man. Too bad we can’t tell before hand which weeks they will be.
Those are the facts in much greater detail so you can’t suggest I have biased the discussion by picking a full month, which happened to be convenient thanks to Baseball Reference and frankly I didn’t think ANYONE would consider him a good lead off man when you look at his 2021 numbers and career numbers but to each his own.
So take another look at the facts and see how they compare to what you said and I think you’ll find you might have exaggerated how well he’s done. June was not a good month. He had two good months in July and August until he got hurt. Months that were far above his personal norm. Then in Sept he came back was cold then hot then cold then hot but nothing consistent. If we cherry pick the right data he will look better than I say he was. If we pick the opposite numbers where he was horrible he will look like a complete failure.
To take a reasonable snapshot of his data we have to begin with why would someone take him over better alternatives. Bogaerts would be a better lead off man, Schwarber would be a better leadoff man and Devers would be a better leadoff man. Even Verdugo would be a better lead off man based on their profiles.
So I struggle with the idea that if you look at a two week window when he was hot and conclude he’s done a good job I think that’s biased. If you say his last couple of weeks and his hot streak in July and August are the only things that should matter, again, I think that is biased. So pick a window of objective performance that represents the real Kiki numbers. You don’t like his career numbers. You don’t like his 2021 numbers as being representative of his abilities. You don’t like September. You only like lumping his hot streaks together to prove what he might be capable if he can replicate them which he normally doesn’t do. I struggle with that logic.
Kiki is a .250 hitter who gets on base around one out of 3 plate appearances. That’s not the numbers of a good lead off man. Schwarber was highly successful in Washington and was also highly successful in CHI many years ago as a lead off man.. At the time it made no sense to me but when you look at the numbers it makes perfect sense, especially if the 2 hitter isn’t a ground ball guy.
Kiki as I said in a different comment today is a cheap alternative that has worked out well. Semien was the ideal alternative at 2B and he set records this year with his Home Runs. He would have been the team’s best hitter for $11M more to an ownership group with billions. The team success I believe would have been far greater with far more talent so the Red Sox team’s performance would not have been a surprise with Semien AND they might have competed with TB for the division crown, something we haven’t seen since DD got fired.
So I will say that Kiki has done well for the money and that he is a nice complimentary player that has had an exceptional year for him. There is the compliment you’ve been looking for. Kiki is NOT one of the best leadoff hitters playing gold caliber (did he win a gold glove?) defense in center field and excellent defense at 2nd. The defensive part of your sentence is fine it’s the first part that is inaccurate.
Do you want me to list all those that were better because I can!!
Just off the top of my head – In the AL East Arozarena, LeMahieu, Springer and Mullins
They are all better lead off men!!!
Others off the top of my head include Tatis, Acuna, Straw(CLE), Altuve, Kemp(OAK), Buxton, Merrifield, T Anderson(CWS), Bader(STL), Nimmo, Tapia (COL), Marte (ARI), Crawford(SEA) and Adames(MIL). That’s all I can think of off the top of my head.
Wait….. I forgot MOOKIE!!!
So maybe you underestimate what other teams have or you way over estimate Kiki’s abilities. Or maybe both. I stand by my comments that he’s NOT a good lead off man and when you see these other names you have to realize just how far town the totem pole he is compared to the rest of the lead off men in baseball.
Putting Schwarber at leadoff, Bogey second, Devers third, Renfroe fourth, Verdugo fifth, Dalbec sixth, Shaw seventh, Catcher and then Kiki makes the most sense to score runs.
Also, DH Devers put Dalbec at 3B, Shaw at 1B, Kiki at 2B with an outfield of Renfroe, Verdugo and Schwarber while JD is out.
Hope that satisfies my need to compliment Kiki while putting him into perspective within the league and within the ball club.
KD
Here’s. Tip for you when you look at someone’s stats you should go to Fangraphs and just put in the dates. If you do that and look up raw data from Kike from 6/15/2021 until 10/03/2021 you will se a hitter who has the line .266 Avg. and .370 OBP and WRC+ of 131 oh and he slugged at .497 clip just for good measure. I have news for you those are pretty damn good numbers for a leadoff hitter oh and by the way that isn’t two weeks worth of numbers that’s 368 at bats.
Now I will admit before mid June he was a horrible leadoff hitter he just didn’t seem to get the leadoff position and what it required. Isn’t it possible he just figured it out. This is really the only year that he has gotten consistent at bats where he knew was going to be playing isn’t it possible. He sure has looked damn good for over half a season now and that has been straight half a season. I don’t know maybe he will suck next year I will get to eat crow but I don’t think so.
I stand by my comments he has been an excellent leadoff hitter for over half a season now and thems the facts and are unarguable.
Bruin1012 – Facts are the numbers you presented, cut the way you presented them. My numbers were just as accurate. What varies is our opinion of what a good lead off hitter should produce.
Personally, a hitter with a .267 average and .370 on base percentage lacks hand eye coordination but has good command of the strike zone during the period reflected by the numbers. Is that what I want from a guy hitting first? Absolutely not. Check the competition. Good teams have better lead off men
It’s fine that your standard isn’t what mine is but I want to beat those teams with better lead off men and the only way to attack that challenge is to have a better lead off man.
Your use of the word excellent varies greatly from mine. Mediocre is my evaluation of Kiki.
BTW – two post season wins with Schwarber batting lead-off and two losses with Kiki batting lead off. Small sample size but if they use Kiki it will remain a small sample size. I’m happy for you that he had a good game hitting second in the order but it fuels your desire to praise a mediocre player as if he was something more. It was one good game and will be off set by two bad ones in the future.
In the division Arozarena, LeMahieu, Springer and Mullins. BOS is dead last as of now at the lead off spot so excellent seems like a huge over statement of his skills. The four others are varying degrees of excellence not Kiki.
Just remember we had Mookie who would be ranked one if he was still here!! .
Well good news and not-so-good news.
Good news is Cora said Plawecki is catching tonight, apparently Cora learned his lesson after the Sept 24 debacle. Even with Vazquez having good numbers against Cole, we don’t want him catching Eovaldi.
Bad news is as of now looks like JD won’t be starting tonight, which means Arroyo at 2B.
I like Arroyo, but his lack of playing time since July is concerning.
FPG – So Arroyo over Shaw? Probably another magic 8 ball decision or coin flip or gut reaction. Why use sound baseball logic when you have all these other alternative measures for making decisions!!
No Schwarber at lead off means one and gone is likely. Losing JD is like removing one leg of a chair. That can’t be good.
Frankly, I’m not sure whether winning or losing is better for the fan base. Winning creates unrealistic expectations for 2022 and losing always hurts after a miracle season. I think Eovaldi gives them the best chance of winning but if Cole is on then the depleted line-up batting in the wrong order should struggle to score.
Also, which Stanton and Judge show up tonight. I think TB is sitting there saying “I don’t care who wins. Neither have a chance against us” They are probably right!! Will the White Sox be healthy and beat Houston or will Houston wake up and play to their abilities? Can either of them beat TB? The AL rep in the world series probably will be TB but I’d like to see the White Sox get there. Their line-up is much like Toronto’s. It’s filled with very young stars that are exciting and inexperienced. A year from now I wouldn’t be shocked to see TOR and CWS playing in the AL championship game.
KD – Somebody else mentioned Shaw too. I dunno, the extent of his experience at 2B is 36 starts back in 2018. Not a good time to experiment now.
The other option would be Hernandez at 2B and Duran in CF … but ONLY if JD can’t DH.
FPG – That’s twice you’ve suggested Shaw at 2B when I write 1B. I’m confused. Why would anyone play him at 2B when Kiki can play 2B so much better? Likewise, Dalbec is a far superior 3B than Devers so it makes sense the infield is Dalbec, Bogey, Kiki and Shaw with an outfield of Renfroe, Verdugo and Schwarber. Devers at DH.
I bet if that line-up was announced as the starters the pitching staff would give it a standing ovation having Devers at DH!!
Sooooo …..
Today’s roster is official:
No JD
No Sawamura
No Darwinzon
No Sale
Add: Duran, Arauz, Wong, and Taylor is back!!!
I will not miss Sawamura for the playoffs, and I hope he is included in an off season trade.
Sawamura earned his entire year’s salary with his appearance against Washington.
Joe Brady, Agreed! “ Sawamura earned his entire year’s salary with his appearance against Washington.”
Sawamura gave up 9 HRs meaning 20 percent of his hits allowed went for HRs. That coupled with his 5.4 BB per 9 innings means he can really only be counted on for mop up.
Yup. I’m not arguing that he was particularly good or anything. He has a $3M salary with a $600k buyout, making his marginal cost $2.4M I’d love to be able to trade him, but other GMs will see the same things that you see. And I’d hate to cut even a marginal RP if the net cost to us is only $2.4M.