The Rangers will be one of the more interesting teams to follow over the next few months. Coming off two consecutive last place finishes (three in the last four years), Texas doesn’t look like an obvious spender at first glance. The Rangers’ long-term books are wide open, though, perhaps positioning them for a more exciting offseason than those of other clubs near the bottom of the standings.
Texas president of baseball operations Jon Daniels reiterated the team could be aggressive as soon as this offseason when speaking with reporters (including Jeff Wilson and Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News) earlier this week. “Ownership has given us a good range to work with this year with the expectation that (payroll) is going to grow over the next several years,” Daniels told reporters. “We will be in a different category than we’ve been the last couple years. The opportunity has got to line up. … We’re open to a longer-term deal on the right player.”
Those comments largely align with general manager Chris Young’s midseason proclamation that Texas would be “very active” in free agency. Like Young, Daniels didn’t delve into specifics about precisely how far the club might be willing to stretch the payroll, but the mere mention of “a longer-term deal” is notable given the Rangers’ place in the competitive cycle. Indeed, Daniels at least hinted at the possibility of playing at the top of the market, noting that while the Rangers “have kind of flipped past” the marquee names in recent offseasons, “it’s been good this year. The [scouts] have a lot of freedom to make recommendations and to really dig into players. It’s definitely been more enjoyable.”
An openness to a long-term deal doesn’t inherently mean the Rangers will sign one, of course. But that desire makes them a threat to land one of their top targets, since there does seem to be ample space on the books. Texas’ payroll maxed out north of $165MM back in 2017, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but they’ve pared that number back under $100MM as they’ve rebuilt the roster.
Even after accounting for projected arbitration raises, the Rangers have just over $52MM on the books in 2022, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. That leaves plenty of room for Daniels, Young and the rest of the front office to make a legitimate run at a priority target — particularly if ownership is willing to push spending back up above this past season’s range as Daniels suggested.
Texas probably isn’t going to add another $100MM to the books and push spending to franchise-record heights this offseason alone. The roster still has plenty of question marks, and even multiple impact additions wouldn’t make them a likely 2022 contender. Adding an external core piece or two this offseason with the anticipation of more upgrades and another payroll hike next winter seems more plausible, though, with the Rangers likely eyeing 2023 as a reasonable window of contention.
Daniels suggested this week (via Wilson) that position players will be the club’s focus. This year’s free agent class is famously shortstop-heavy, with Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Dallas-area native Trevor Story and Javier Báez all likely to land significant contracts. There’ll be some speculation about Story based on his ties to the area, but any member of that group would offer a noteworthy addition around whom Texas could build over the coming years.
Buster Olney of ESPN even hears from some rival executives that the Rangers could look into signing two members of that shortstop quintet with the idea of moving one of those players to another position. It’d be a surprise if any team — particularly one that’s not an immediate contender — ultimately landed two of Correa, Seager, Semien, Story and Báez, but that sentiment drives home the freedom the Rangers’ current level of payroll space affords the front office.
Of course, the Rangers needn’t pigeonhole themselves into the shortstop market specifically. Without established regulars virtually anywhere on the roster, Texas can identify targets around the diamond. Freddie Freeman, Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Starling Marte, Kyle Schwarber and Michael Conforto are among the top non-shortstop position players slated to hit the open market.
JeffreyChungus
but why
The Mets "Missed WAR"
The biggest problem with this is that the best players are only going to sign with the last place Rangers if they offer them the biggest contract. By definition that means the Rangers will have to pay above market value since the other 29 teams won’t be willing to pay what they do. I get doing that if you are in the verge of contention but a last place team should never pay above market value for players on a long term contract.
afsooner02
Maybe not Kershaw….but not sure how much he has left in the tank.
Rocket32
What team doesn’t have to offer the biggest contract to sign players? Offering a better contract then the competition is willing to is literally how you sign most free agents. Most players aim for the best deal they can get.
1984wasntamanual
There are plenty of times where it comes out that player x accepted less to go to a team. The point he was making is that since the Rangers are bad, if the offers are relatively close between them and a contender, a player is probably going to choose the contender, so the Rangers will likely need to make an offer that’s more than just marginally better than others to convince a player.
The Mets "Missed WAR"
@1984: exactly. Didn’t the Rangers already have to eat a ton of that A-Rod contract after doing this? I would hate to see the same thing happen to them again. IMO it would be a little smarter for the Rangers core to get get Enough to make them better than a last place team before they start throwing tons of money around. At least make guys prefer that team before they start handing out the large contracts. Plenty of top tier free agents have taken discounts to go to specific teams before.
stymeedone
@missed war
EVERY team that signs a free agent overpays as 29 other teams didn’t think he was worth that amount! Its just a given. It doesn’t even matter if they out perform the contract! No other team was willing to give Rodon a Major League contract for $3MM last spring. He was great, but they overpaid the market.
The Mets "Missed WAR"
Some players take lower contracts to go to a specific team. One example that comes to mind right now is Cliff Lee turning down a bunch of money from the Yanks to go to the Phillies. There are a lot more though. Not every free agent always goes after top dollar. Those are the guys I would prefer my teams signs because it shows they aren’t just after money. My other point was that IMO the Rangers aren’t ready for this yet. Paying top dollar for a high end player makes sense if your team is already great and you truly believe they will push you over the top and actually win you a World Series. Doing it to just make a team more relevant when they are in last place can backfire. Wait until your young cheap core already gets you to contention and then spend the big money to win it all for you. The Rangers just aren’t there yet. If they try to supplement a core with big dollar free agents they will just end up like the Angels, Reds, Phillies and Mets. Develop your young cheap players until you have a fully ready core like the Braves (just one example) did with Swanson, Riley, Albies, Acuna and Fried before you start spending like your free agent purchases will actually mean something. Otherwise your stuck with a long term expensive team that might be better but doesn’t actually contend for a championship.
Curly Was The Smart Stooge
Great idea, that’s like going into a new car dealership & saying “I love that car, how much”
Let’s open up the purse strings & pay way too much for folks who won’t add up to their potential. Bad idea to announce it.
The Mets "Missed WAR"
I 100% agree, Curly. This is more about the Rangers trying to hype up their fan base than it is about actually winning.
gbs42
Sign Correa and Seager. Why not??
StankyYankee
None of those top tier free agents will sign with Texas. You’re dreaming
Y2KAK
You guys got to remember that the cba will do something dumb and next year Will be on a lock out
rangers92
They can spend $75-$80 million AAV no problem. The payroll for 2022 is slated at $55 mil because of dead contracts. Come 2023 it drops down to $25 million.
They can run it up to $135 million knowing it will drop back down to $105 million to start 2023. Which would give them room to sign more players.
Go get the young guys while the market is flooded. 6 year+ deals. Let them build up with the young core coming up and build some chemistry. Make 2022 fun and competitive and starting 2023 get ready for some playoff baseball.
With Josh Jung, Cole Winn, Jack Leiter and many more coming up now is the time to start building it back.
1984wasntamanual
It’s certainly possible that the young players come up and get acclimated to MLB fast enough to be a playoff team in 2023, but I think expecting it sets you up for a lot of disappointment.
Cosmo2
Teams always try to jumpstart their rebuild by going big in free agency before it’s complete. It NEVER works.
seth3120
Too early. You want those players in their absolute prime when young core is contributing that’s the model that seems to work for the teams that go into full rebuild. You can’t risk a but big signing and have that player on the decline when you need him most. At least another year. See what you have in youth then add that piece to solidify the team
Samuel
This proposed action of going the free agent route at this point in the Ranger rebuild – that was supposed to bear fruit when they moved into their latest ballpark in 2019 – is exactly what happened with the Phillies rebuild.
Déjà vu all over again.
justinkm19
Covid put a wrench in the plan.
Rangers29
Schwarber, Rodon, E-Rod, and Chris Taylor. That’s my wishlist.
RazorRamonie
That’s really not a terrible or out of the realm of possibilities as none of them are front like free agents and could definitely hold some spaces till the young guys are ready.
StankyYankee
Keep wishing! Ain’t happening! Texas will be terrible for years to come!
Tcsbaseball
They do this every year, they’re always “in play” for big free agents then never sign one. They’re like the Blue Jays before the Jays actually started signing people. And that’s coming from a rangers fan. No need to sign long term free agents at this stage of the rebuild.
j817
I think they using the same strategy as their basketball counterparts (the Mavs) downtown. They are planing to go hard on Story. Strike out on him and then have the “at least we tried” press conference.
rangers92
There is no point in signing any players 32 or older yes.
But guys that are 27-29.. yes absolutely.
The plan is to contend in a year or 2. Those guys will be productive for 6-8 more years. The free agent market isn’t that great in 2023 or 2024
In 2023 you can get Trea Turner or Xander But they will be 30 which would put you in the same boat as signing Story, Correa, Seager or Baez.
So do it now when supply is high not next year when supply is low and your up against the Dodgers and Redsox
Tcsbaseball
@rangersfan92, you’re very naive if you think this Rangers team will be a contender as soon as next season. 0% chance
rangers92
I don’t think they will contend this upcoming year. 2022. I think their plan is to contend in a year or 2. Like 2023-2024
1984wasntamanual
What do you mean by contend?
StankyYankee
Totally agree! Texas won’t contend for years to come!
Cosmo2
27-29 year old players will be productive for 6-8 years? So through their age 35-36 seasons? No. Players decline MUCH sooner than that. VERY few players have peaks that last even five years. You’re way mis-estimating career windows and aging curves.
rangers92
Yes, I think these particular high level players like Seager, Story and Correa will be productive until they’re about 35. They’re all in great shape and very talented. I do realize some guys, like eric Hosmer and Moustakas will decline faster.
outinleftfield
There is a difference between declining and being unproductive. Story or Correa at 70-80% of their career averages is still an above average MLB player. That is productive. Pretty clear that the decline starts at age 31 season for all but a few players. When they start as far above the grading curve as all 5 of these guys do you can deal with a couple of years that are below their career averages but still above league averages.
Dalton1017
Sign Kershaw castellanos and few more mid level guys
CalcetinesBlancos
A-Rod is available.
Rsox
Considering long term contracts and actually getting players to sign them are two totally different things…
baseballfan05
I see Story as probably the most likely candidate for SS and I honestly don’t see them signing more than one top tier free agent. I’d love to see Freddie Freeman in a Rangers uniform, but the Braves see him as this generation’s Chipper Jones. There’s no way Braves ownership lets him leave Atlanta. Texas might have an outside shot at Schwarber, but they’ve already got players who are best suited for DH duty and that’s really where Schwarber is at this point.
HALfromVA
Sign Correa and Castellanos. Thank you, in advance.
StankyYankee
Not happening!
justinkm19
We’ll take Freeman and Correa, thanks
Cosmo2
I’d be very weary of giving a 32 year old a contract the length that Freeman will be seeking.
justinkm19
Weary, yes. Unwilling, no.
outinleftfield
Weary or wary? Although the Rangers or Braves giving Freeman a 6/150 contract might make you tired too.
justinkm19
Or Marte, Castellanos, and Correa. Nick can play 3B until Jung comes up then move him to the OF. Marte allows Garcia to play RF.
Rsox
You do not want Castellanos anywhere near 3B. There is a reason he plays RF and its not because he’s such a good hitter
StankyYankee
Now I’m really laughing!
justinkm19
Couldn’t care less
rangers13
Rodriquez, Rodon, Schwarber and Story. If he wants to home, not opposed to Kershaw and if he wants a no stress year would love Syndergaard who also comes home.
JoeBrady
My prediction is that all 30 owners and/or GMs are going to interviewed and will say ‘yes, we anticipate spending more this winter’. Haven’t we already heard that from at least a half-dozen teams already?
Thesecondjamie
They’re gonna overpay for Báez…
And regret it by the end of the season
Mario93
Baez is a guy some team will most likely regret signing.
rangers92
I would like to say, The Rangers won’t be nearly as bad next year as they were this year.
The literally trotted out 3 SP-Allard, Lyles and Foltynewics who were in the top 10 for HRs allowed and had ERAs in the 5s. They also tried out a few young arms. They ran out guys like Brock Holt and Charlie Culberson in the everyday line up as well as guys like Jason Martin and Eli White. They weren’t trying to win. They were trying to figure out who is going to stick and who can they let go. Their 40 man roster will have a lot of cuts.
They have Dane Dunning, Taylor Hearn, AJ Alexy, Cole Winn, Glen Otto and plenty of other pitchers.
They have a solid core of prospects position players coming up that did very well at AA+. They’re ready to get promoted. They have alot of talent and a TON of depth. I think they will sign a FA or 2 and also make a trade or 2. I think they will promote some guys and put the very best product on the field that they can.
2022 should see 80 wins or so. Re evaluate and sign the few remaining holes in FA and come 2023 they should win 87-92 games. 2024 should start to see the team winning big.
rangers13
In order to cut costs as they usually do, I wonder what Tampa Bay would want for Yarbrough, Margaut, Chirinos, or Glasnow. All of these are getting towards the 5 million AAV mark, which has been approximately desired max that TB is comfortable with. Another food for thought, I wonder what could be worked out with Mets for JD Davis and Joey Luchessi or Reds for Greene and Aquino.
JoeBrady
I like Margot, and think he is a legitimate target. He’s good enough that he can fit on a lot of teams, but probably not good enough to crack TB’s lineup, since KK will likely start over him. That, in turn, makes him too expensive for TB to keep.
StankyYankee
You’re right! They’ll be worse!
mtex
Here you are again, troll. Everyone here is now dumber for you having posted. May god have mercy on your soul.
Bob333
He knows lockout is coming and is blowing smoke up the fans A–.The lockout will take place and it will be the end of MLB teams struggling to draw now the lockout will put the
fork in MLB finally.Maybe some of thes spoiled players will need to get REAL jobs and work
shift work and see how the average fan feels and trys to survive instead of hating on the fans if the boo or say nasty things about them.Im praying for a lockout.
rangers92
I think the players know a lockout would hurt them more. I think the players union will be the ones blowing smoke right up until it’s time to sign the new CBA
Pads Fans
More like the spoiled billionaires. If you are praying for a lockout, you are not a baseball fan. You are a suckup to billionaires.
Pads Fans
Searching and searching and searching and can’t find a single example of Olney being correct about a rumor. What am I missing? Why do they still talk about him when he is always wrong about rumors?
Don’t get me wrong, he does occasionally get the terms of a contract correct or add a small piece that was missed in trades by other writers, but its always after the fact.
If we got 100% of our work wrong my company would not get many contracts but he is still working at ESPN.
Atheletic Mariner’s Angel
Long term contracts? Odor, Andrus, Choo. Orz
bucsfan0004
Ok, who just punched Jon Daniels in the face? Look at that pic, lol
Texassooner
They will look to add stage 1 of 3 stages:
Suzuki in RF
Story at SS or 2 years of Escobar at 2B
Kershaw
Rodon
Jung, Garcia, and some combination of Falefa, Lowe, Ibanez, Peters, Calhoun along with young pitchers and hope for improvement. Maybe a young 2B and Winn will be ready for the majors by mid season.