4:56 pm: Boston has officially placed Whitlock on the IL, retroactive to September 20. He’ll be first eligible to return next Thursday. Ryan Brasier has been recalled to take his place on the active roster. Additionally, Boston reinstated infielder Christian Arroyo from the COVID-19 injured list. Utilityman Jack López has been removed from the active and 40-man rosters and returned to Triple-A Worcester in a corresponding move. López had been selected as a COVID replacement, so he needn’t be exposed to waivers to be bumped from the 40-man.
3:44 pm: The Red Sox are placing reliever Garrett Whitlock on the 10-day injured list due to a right pectoral strain, manager Alex Cora told reporters (including Alex Speier of the Boston Globe). Cora stressed that the club doesn’t view the injury as overly serious but wants to be cautious not aggravate the issue. He didn’t rule out the possibility of Whitlock returning after a ten-day minimal absence.
Even if Whitlock is able to make it by the middle of next week, his loss will still be a tough blow for a Boston team in a tightly-contested Wild Card race. The Red Sox enter play tonight up a game and a half on the Blue Jays for the top Wild Card position in the American League. The Yankees are only half a game back of Toronto for the league’s final playoff spot, and the A’s and Mariners are still within range themselves.
Whitlock has arguably been Boston’s best reliever this year, an improbably fantastic outcome for a Rule 5 draftee. Plucked from the Yankees’ system last winter, the right-hander has tossed 72 1/3 innings of 1.99 ERA ball across 45 appearances. He’s benefitted from a bit of good fortune to post such a strong run prevention mark — particularly with regards to stranding baserunners — but there’s little question Whitlock has had a strong year. He’s got better than average strikeout (26.8%), walk (5.8%), ground-ball (49.5%) and swinging strike (12.8%) rates.
That continued strong work has unsurprisingly gained Whitlock more important opportunities as the season has gone on. After deploying him in mostly mop-up situations early in the year, Cora has increasingly leaned on Whitlock in higher-leverage game states over the past couple months. The 25-year-old has continued to perform well in those key spots, holding opponents to a .151/.220/.283 line over 59 plate appearances deemed “high-leverage” by FanGraphs. With Whitlock down, Hansel Robles, Matt Barnes and the resurgent Garrett Richards look likeliest to shoulder the most important innings late in games.
I don’t know what’s “arguable” about him being our best RP. He definitely has been
Whitlock being our best reliever is not arguable, but you know what is?
Deciding to start Sale tomorrow instead of Friday against the Yanks.
This makes no sense whatsoever.
They are probably trying to avoid Yankees seeing him twice in two swells if they face off in WC game
I think all three teams in the WC hunt are worrying about themselves, not what others are doing. WC game isn’t a given for any of them so worry about that when the time comes.
If so, I disagree with that approach. Planning that far ahead is unwise and tends to backfire, just like saving your best reliever by not using him to protect a slim lead.
Cora mentioned his starting rotation would be adjusted to get the best matchups. I would think lining up your best starting pitchers to pitch in the only remaining head-to-head games against your competition would be the top priority. If the Sox lose Friday and it costs them a playoff spot or home field advantage, Cora will have to answer to it.
I’ve heard several players mention how the team is closely watching the scores of their rivals, Xander talked about it very recently.
Seems like the Sox beare just setting up the rotation moving forward.
Dewey, no chance Pivetta will be following Sale in the postseason. I think nearly everyone expects the order to be Sale-Evo-ERod. which is what it would have been if Sale were starting Friday instead of today.
I’m hearing Cora decided against Sale starting Friday because the Yanks hitters are predominantly right-handed. If true, it’s a horrible reason.
Yanks are only slightly better against LHP (.754 OPS) than against RHP (.718 OPS).
Yes Sale’s career numbers against LHP are slightly better than against RHP, but not enough to want him to avoid the Yanks.
no chance Pivetta will be following Sale in the postseason
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I assume that he will follow ERod, but I am not sure what difference that makes.
I’m hearing Cora decided against Sale starting Friday because the Yanks hitters are predominantly right-handed.
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That is almost certainly not the case. The difference between their lefty and righty lineup is insignificant. And even If that was Cora’s reason, he wouldn’t tell anyone.
The difference is almost certainly getting 3 starts out of Sale instead of the two starts he’d have gotten had he held Sale out for two more days.
Each game this weekend is a 2-game swing in the standings.
With Sale pitching tonight instead of this weekend, if the Sox win tonight and lose Saturday, we still lose a game in the standings.
If Sale pitched this weekend and won, the Sox would increase their lead on the Yanks even if the Sox were to lose tonight.
It just doesn’t make sense to burn Sale with a start on the final day of the regular season, thus making him unavailable to pitch again until Friday’s ALDS Game 2.
Sale pitching the last game of the regular season means he is:
1) Not available for a potential Wild Card Play-In Game
2) Not available for the Wild Card Game
3) Not available for ALDS Game 1
How can you be fine with that?
That is why it’s so imperative to beat the Yanks and have them eliminated PRIOR to the last day of the regular season. Each Yankee game is a 2-game swing.
BTW – I don’t think you answered my question in the other thread.
If at the end of the day October 2 the Red Sox have clinched a Wild Card spot, but haven’t clinched home field for the WC game, do you still start Sale on the final day of the season if there’s a chance to win home field? Or do you save him for the WC game?
I thought I did answer. I would start him. The follow WC game, and subsequent ALDS chances are weakened slightly, but the HFA might be worth it.
Agreed! Home field is vital to the Sox, who are tied for 2nd-best home record in the AL.
Evo would do just fine in a Play-In or WC game.
Fever Pitch Guy3 hours ago
Deciding to start Sale tomorrow instead of Friday against the Yanks.
This makes no sense whatsoever.
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1-You take wins wherever you get them.
2-I’d prefer to keep him on his 5-day schedule, rather than go to 7 days.
3-Most importantly, if you hold him back to the 24th, then you only get 2 starts out of him, instead of 3.
1 – How many times did Cora refuse to use one of his better relievers to protect a slim late inning lead, or he benched 2-3 of his best position players in the same game, only because he wanted to “rest” them for an upcoming series. With Cora it’s never been about winning every game when you can.
The goal now is to win as many of the ten remaining games as you can, while pinning as many losses on your closest competitors as you can. This weekend’s contests are worth two games each in the standings, all other remaining games are worth just one.
2 – Sale pitching Wednesday night prevents him from staying on your preferred 5-day schedule. His next start will be on 6 days
3 – I’m not going to even attempt to predict how the first 5 days of October will play out, but I do have a question.
Let’s say on October 2nd the Sox clinch one of the wildcard spots, but are still fighting for the top wildcard.
Do you start Sale on October 3rd, knowing how much better the Sox have played at home this year? Or do you save him for the Wild Card game on October 5th? Keep in mind the Sox have the worst road record of the Top Six teams in the AL.
he benched 2-3 of his best position players in the same game
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We already had this discussion when he started playing Iglesias every day at 2nd, and Kike everyday in CF. There is more to the lineup than meets the eye. As good as they hit, our best all-around lineup is with Iglesias & Kike, especially against lefties.
IRT to BP, Cora plays matchups all the time. Last night was a perfect example. He left Brasier in to face one righty in the 6th, then brought Davis in to face a LRL. He used two low-end guys to get two full innings out of them.
IRT to the $100,000 question, I think I’d stay on schedule (maybe 55% sure). We would still have Eovaldi available for the WC game at home. The schedule is such we theoretically have (assuming Sale pitches on Sunday):
WC Eovaldi
ALDS 1 ERod
ALDS 2 Sale
ALDS 3 Eovaldi
ALDS 4 Pivetta?
I’d have to think about whether we can get around Pivetta, but most playoff schedules force you to use your #4 SP.
We already had this discussion when he started playing Iglesias every day at 2nd, and Kike everyday in CF. There is more to the lineup than meets the eye. As good as they hit, our best all-around lineup is with Iglesias & Kike, especially against lefties.
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And, after last night’s insane DP that Iggy turned, I presume that this discussion has come to its natural conclusion.
Method to the madness, I’ll live with Cora’s decision, Evoldi, Pivetta, and ERod have to git it done!
Well Houck would have been just fine if he had started tonight with all the run support, let’s see what happens Friday and Saturday.
He is their best reliever, I don’t Gar-Rett you say.
Shemp was the best stooge
Any chance the Red Sox give him back to the Yankees at the end of the year? Ya know… Cause they feel bad they stole him?
Yep. Right after the Rays give the Pirates Glassnow, Meadows and Baz back.
This is probably the biggest robbery in the last 20 years….ha
@papi. Cashman also traded you guys (the competition) Ottavino which was a straight salary dump.
No but Let’s Go Mets!!
I never thought I’d see this…
I’ve actually been rooting for the Mets for a long time (in spite of MF22). Strange coming from a NYY fan I know. Also don’t hate the RS either. I grew up loathing the O’s when it was Cal Ripken’s and Mussina’s team and they were always a thorn. Fond memories of some of those marathon games listening on the radio after I was sent to bed.
First of all the Red Sox didn’t “steal him”…..the Yankees made a decision based on numbers and their analytics and internal scouting and exposed him…..the Red Sox were so desperate for pitching of any kind, they took him and arguably it was a very good gamble that has worked out terrifically for them…….but to say the Red Sox “knew something” and “stole him” from their greatest baseball rival sounds like retribution for Babe Ruth and is just incorrect!
Ready into something much?
Okay lets rephrase “steal him”:
One GM exposed Whitlock in the Rule V Draft, while holding on to some very suspect relief pitchers. While another GM kept an open spot and absconded Whitlcock during the the Rule V Draft.
Only one of them will still be a GM in November.
Let’s review all the relievers NYY got rid of this year:
Cessa
Wilson
Whitlock
Ottavino
And for all that, they got back:
Parker
Unknown Compensation
That’s a mighty big “ouch”!
Fever Pitch Guy2 hours ago
Let’s review all the relievers NYY got rid of this year: Cessa/Wilson
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That could be considered part of the cost of acquiring Gallo & Rizzo. They needed to get under the cap
Joe I fully agree, the Cessa/Wilson/Ottavino deals were strictly luxury tax driven (there’s no cap, but I know what you meant).
Still, I think they should have gotten more in return. And it’s kinda crazy to give away that much talent when you’ve got guys like Cole and Judge still in their prime. What’s the point of paying Cole that much money if you can’t afford a supporting cast around him?
It’s like the decision to not sign Mookie. Sure the Sox could afford to pay him what the Dodgers gave him, but then they wouldn’t have the resources to field a contender while staying under the luxury tax threshold. That’s exactly what happened with the Yanks. They even made the Sox better by trading a good reliever to their arch rival.
I never thought the Ottavino trade was a bad trade for the NYY. To them, he was just one more RP. They had Green, Joey Lasagna, Chapman, Cessa, Britton, Wilson and O’Day.
It really should’ve been enough. And he was more important to us, serving as Closer 2. This freed up $8M for them, which is what paid for Kluber mostly. Theoretically, Kluber should’ve been more important to them.
So the Yankees decided to leave Whitlock unprotected because of their analytics?
Ohhhh nooooooo …… how could the analytics be so wrong? Impossible!!!
Fever Pitch Guy
Ohhhh nooooooo …… how could the analytics be so wrong?
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Analytics is simply one more tool in your toolbox. No one in the universe ever said it was infallible. Analytics simply incorporates more statistics. You’re a markets guy, right? If you were looking at Apple, are you relying on EPS, or 10-20 other under the radar statistics?
Are you joking? Chaim Bloom has made his career off of identifying and acquiring young undervalued players on other rosters. If you think this was just a roll of the dice by the Red Sox you are kidding yourself.
No, it’s still a roll of the dice. The difference is guys like Bloom see the probabilities better.
And, what if Whitlock fell flat on his face or suffered a setback in coming back….what then?
You armchair GM’s just make us laugh!
What if Ohtani actually sucked at baseball? The question must be asked
Wo0w, Kevin23…you really have all the answers…..any hot stock picks?
Kevin23 – Do you have ANY proof that he made the choices you are suggesting? And if so who specifically are you talking about? The revolving door was spinning so fast this summer I didn’t even get the names of many of his undervalued players that were dismissed shortly after arriving.
I get it. He used the shotgun approach not the rifle approach to finding talent. No precision, just a numbers game. I think you are right about that.
Kevin23 – As a follow-up. Do the highly skilled hunters use a rifle or a shotgun?
Sabermetric – Just curious. You used a roll of the dice analogy and then commented that Bloom sees the probabilities better. Aren’t the probabilities of each side of the dice the same? Or are you saying the dice are loaded? That’s how he’s better at rolling the dice!!
Can you precisely explain what Bloom’s advantage is and how you know this? I’ve spent two years trying to determine that and my conclusion is that the skill still lies in TB because their decisions without him have been as good or better than when he was there and BOS has watched him flood the roster and minors with players as if he thought he was a trainer of race horses who was looking for his next champion by following a heard of wild horses to see which one was the fastest. Is that what you meant by he sees the probabilities better?
Ok, rolling the dice was probably a poor analogy. A better thing to say would be someone like Bloom seems to have a better instinct about the probabilities and adjusts accordingly. Guys like Hernandez and Renfroe were considered low key moves and both have been huge contributors.
Not every move will work out but show me one GM you can say makes perfect moves. So far I like what Bloom has done, This was a year everyone predicted Boston wouldn’t be a threat and here we are, hanging tight in the toughest division in baseball. It’s hard not to give Bloom credit.
Sabermetric – Do the players get credit for any of the games? I have always believed the performance of the players allowed a team to win or lose. There are no in-game assists by anyone, just the performance by the individual that contributes to a team effort. I guess that must be old school thinking.
Also do you believe the talent level is higher or lower today without Mookie, Benny, JBJ, Moreland, Price and others? If you were on an opposing team would you rather face the 2018 Red Sox or the 2021 Red Sox? The 2018 Red Sox won 108 games and had a batting order that was more imposing than this year’s team. Their pitching staff in 2018 had 3 top flight pitchers in Sale, Price and Eovaldi plus E-Rod wasn’t as bad as he was this year. So if the talent level has fallen off dramatically do we give the credit for that to the GM too?
It’s a simple question that always needs to be asked when evaluating performance. Is the team better off today or prior to the new hire joining the organization? Everyone has an opinion about the answer. For me, 108 wins to whatever Boston finishes with suggests things have NOT gone in the right direction. But many Bloom supporters prefer not to look at accomplishments measured by wins but rather they prefer to focus on an unmeasurable potential for the organization. Oh well, to each his own. I struggle with the idea that something unmeasurable could be better than solid proof from results but again I’m old school..
So for me, if a group of players play exceptionally well and you give the GM, the Ownership or the Manager credit for their success then when they don’t play well the same folks should be blamed for the failure not the players. That’s logical. Right? So if you can give Bloom credit for the success of the 2021 team you can also blame him for the lack of success during the 2020 season. Right? That seems only fair..
Unfortunately many would argue he didn’t have enough time. After all, there is a mystical number of years before a GM can be evaluated and everyone says that’s three years. This GM job sounds like a dream job doesn’t it? No evaluation for 3 years, you get to take credit for the hard work performed by the players and if the team has the worse record in decades or you make the biggest mistake in a century you aren’t accountable because it happened before the three year guarantee was over. Now that’s job security without accountability. Bet most people would love to have that job.
As you pointed out it would be hard not to give Bloom credit especially on a website filled with his vocal followers, I think I will stick with the belief that the players do the hard work and earn the wins not the GM, the manager or the owners. I’m proud of how the team performed this season and I truly believe they did it because they are professional baseball players. Like Belichick always talks about “they did their jobs” that’s why they won. If you think Bloom deserves the credit for their hard work, success and good luck by the players, great. But if you do please agree that if they fail next year he has earned a firing like he gave Mookie, Benny, Chavis, Price and others. That seems only fair too. Right?
This is far too long of an answer to contain the phrase “it’s a simple question.”
The 2018 v. the 2021 question. I reject the premise of your question. Managing the front office of a team requires thinking multiple years in advance. The Mookie/Price trade was made as part of that thinking. The worry of not being to afford Mookie and let’s face it, Price was not so happy pitching in Boston where he was a constant media target. It’s a calculated risk of a trade versus losing a superstar for nothing and risking another star of driving down his own value by demanding a trade.
I think you’re dismissing too many variables and I don’t say that as an insult. You make some fair points. In many parts of baseball there’s been the question of the “intangibles,” the un-measurable. You measure in terms of 108 wins, ok fine but that was how the team did competing with other teams in 2018. Under the new realities of the team in 2021 is a different question to me because so many variables have changed.
To continue my gambling analogies, in poker you can only play the cards you’re dealt. You can make decisions about what cards to keep and what to discard, you can make bets based off of what you see around you, but in the end if someone has a better hand than you then you’re not going to win.
There’s no simple answer so part of it in the end is “gut.” So here it goes: I’ve been watching the Red Sox play for almost 40 years, I’ve been able too apply stats and analyze for maybe 30 (yes, I was and am a math geek). The thing I’ve noticed the most is when the GM of the Red Sox starts pulling out the check book and signing every high priced player left and right and trading as much as the farm as possible to get a slightly better player then sometimes things go good but only for a short while. But also things can go very bad and we need the Dodgers to bail us out. Bloom seems to be thoughtful in his moves in that he’s not looking to the top price available but the top potential value. So, in my opinion and take that for whatever two cents that may be worth, I like Bloom so far because I think Boston does have more future potential today than before Bloom arrived.
Acolyte, that is a very appropriate handle for you!
But you’re 100% wrong about the two examples you gave for Bloom’s supposed brilliance.
First of all, Hernandez was not even close to being low key. He built up a reputation in LA as a great clutch performer who was idolized during his time there. He got a 2-year $14M contract, hardly a bargain basement signing. And his numbers this year are right in line with his numbers from LA.
2021 – .251/.337/.453
2018 – .256/.336/.470
And the only reason Bloom signed him? Because Cora loves the guy and has a very long history with him. When Hernandez was a kid, his father coached a winterball team in Cora’s hometown. Cora also managed Hernandez with Team Puerto Rico. And Hernandez badly wanted to play for Cora in Boston. “I’m just really, really excited to be able to play for a Puerto Rican manager.” Without the Cora connection, it’s highly doubtful Bloom would have pursued Hernandez. Analytics had nothing to do with it, especially since “there’s no such thing as clutch” in Sabermetrics … right?
Renfroe was already on Bloom’s radar because when Bloom was in Tampa it was Neander who targeted Renfroe in a trade that happened right after Bloom left. Who did Tampa give up for Renfroe and a couple minor leaguers? Cronenworth and Pham. Needless to say, Tampa lost that trade.
Hopefully someday you’ll realize player personnel decisions are not made purely because of stats. Scouting reports and familiarity from connections to team members often play a huge part in the decisionmaking.
FeverPitch: This is what you said back in February about Kiki —
“$7M per for a utilityman? In this free agent market? Coming off two consecutive seasons of big declines in productivity? That money should have been used more wisely, like on a top notch reliever.”
Now he’s a “great clutch performer” “his numbers are in line . . .”
Which is it? Is he in decline according to your Feb comment, or are his numbers in line?
Puk I sincerely appreciate you remembering my posts from that long ago!
Very simple answers when you put my earlier statements in context:
1) There’s a difference between stating a fact that there were two consecutive seasons of big declines in productivity, which is what I said, and stating the player is in decline, which you said. For example, JD’s productivity had a huge decline last year. Did I ever say JD was in decline? You’ll never find proof of me saying that, because I never said it. Players have declines in production for a number of reasons, it doesn’t necessarily mean the player himself is in decline.
2) My February comment clearly showed I took issue with the size of the contract. And I had justification, especially with Peter Gammons reporting that Hernandez was looking for only a one-year contract. At the time it was an overpay and the bullpen absolutely was a bigger need, do you not agree?
Sounds like double-talk to me.
Feb: “2 years of big declines”
Now: “numbers are in line”
OPS+ and WAR for those years you mentioned.
2019: 87, 2.0
2020: 81, 1.1
2021: 108, 4.1
Numbers are not in line. He was in decline. Bloom or Cora saw something, and now you change your story, just to avoid giving credit where credits due.
To your points:
1) Don’t care about JD, wasn’t part of my post. Youre just side-stepping.
2) You were shocked at 7mil a year, as if that was too much. 4.1 WAR for 7mil is a steal. Do you give credit – NOPE. Now it was “in line”.
Change my words anyway you want. Plain and simple. You complain about Bloom/Cora on every move. Give zero credit when youre wrong. Whats your obsession, they’re just doing their jobs, and very well I might add.
Puk, you’re quoting posts of mine from February and yet you say I’m the one obsessed? That’s priceless.
FTR – I’ve gone out of my way to praise Bloom several times, how did you miss all of them? Not as much with Cora, but I have defended him too at times. But just like some Sabermetric Acolytes, you see only what you want to see.
For instance, did you really not see the “numbers in line” I referenced were from 2018? How could you possibly miss that? Vision problems? Dyslexic? (not that there’s anything wrong with that)
After all those facts I provided to you about the Cora/Hernandez connection, you still ignore them and say “Cora/Bloom saw something”.. I have no patience for people like you.
Sure …. ignore all the facts if it helps your “Cora and Bloom are geniuses” agenda.
Just curious, what did Bloom/Cora see in Marwin? What did they see in Andriese? What did they see in Franchy?
Why does it feel like you have more than one account. Hmmmm …..
Fever Pitch Guy
He got a 2-year $14M contract, hardly a bargain basement signing.
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Kike was absolutely a great signing. Just for fun, take a look at the recent MLB-R article conjecturing about a Taylor signing. They were comparing Taylor to the Zobrist contract, and Kike is as good as Taylor. A 108 OPS+ with GG-level fielding at 2B and CF?
My only complaint about the signing is that it wasn’t long enough.
Sabermetric – Excellent answer. I appreciate your argument. You basically believe in potential despite the lack of tangible evidence. That’s part of being a fan.
You mentioned payroll so I have to ask: Do you think an ownership team that makes hundreds of millions in profit can afford the luxury tax that was to be no more than $10M in 2020? And if so, why divest yourself of a home grown hero like Mookie? There is no financial instability in the Red Sox organization, they have made hundreds of millions per year for 20 years and their company’s value has risen into the billions so why take a frugal approach when you are in a division with the one team who has spent billions more than you over the years? Also, I’m interested in your perspective on the message sent to young developing homegrown players like Dalbec and others when they see an icon like Mookie shipped off for money or possibly diversity issues? You have focused on the development of the farm system but if the homegrown player is to be treated like Mookie, what’s the point of trying to build more home grown talent when you eventually flush it down the toilet?
One clarification about my unmeasurable phrase because I think we are not on the same page with respect to what I intended. I want to clarify the concept. When I reference unmeasurable I’m talking about farm system personnel. Performing in the minors might give you a leading indicator to the future success of a player but there are absolutely no guarantees that success will happen. Their future is unmeasurable as is their future value to the team. As an asset of the team their value isn’t realized until they actually provide value by playing in the majors and doing well enough to literally ‘help the team win/be successful if your definition of success isn’t winning”.
So I was NOT addressing intangibles I was addressing the uncertainty of the farm systems future value. Some people like farm system rating systems. As an example, Boston’s farm system jumped it’s rating by having it’s worse season in decades and getting the fourth pick in the draft. He added 250 points moving the Red Sox farm system into the top 10 based on their recent lack of success. In the mean time they graduated Betts, Bogaerts, Devers and a long list of other farm system players who have greatly enhanced the value of the organization while playing in the majors. That is the unmeasurable future success of a farm system that only happens when the farm system member graduates and contributes significantly to the team. The rating system does not take that into account which is a pet peeve of mine since Boston has been criticized for a poor farm system yet has graduated more excellent players to the majors than almost every team in baseball during the last decade.
So the Bloom strategy has been to rebuild one of the most elite farm systems in baseball from a productivity and team contribution stand point by failing miserably in 2020 and pumping up the rating in 2021 and adding dozens of players who may or may not actually follow in the footsteps of players like Betts and Bogey. That’s why for me his strategy is not just unmeasurable it’s one of trying to fix something that was never broken. Dalbec and Duran are the latest examples of how not broken the farm system has been for a decade.
Final question since you have been a Red Sox fan for quite a while (I watched Ted Williams play in his final season as a young boy so I probably have a comparable appreciation for the history of the team), do you prefer the pattern of the last 20 years where the team wins a ring then has a regression to the mean season the following year then starts building back to another ring or would you prefer a pattern of success more like the Yankees and the Dodgers where you are in the playoffs every year but you don’t win rings? Philosophically, if you prefer the latter then we have different perspectives on the Red Sox because we have different goals for the Red Sox.
I waited nearly 50 years for a duck boat ceremony so I appreciate winning rings more than most. My father lived 80 years (born in 1923) and never saw one. For me, it’s far more important to win than to be competitive every year but not win. An 86 year drought creates thinking like that. The realization that changing philosophies like Bloom has done increases the risk of another 86 year drought creates thinking like that.
So please share with me your preference? Consistently being a brides maid or being the bride every 5 years and not worrying about what happens in between?
Puk – Do you believe the Red Sox are in financial trouble? Do you believe they should go for the ring or stay on budget?
The reason I ask is Boston spent $7M on Kiki and passed on $19M on Semien. If you believe they are in financial jeopardy then getting Kiki makes sense as the less expensive alternative but if you compare productivity to cost (which was part of Bloom’s selling point when he hired in Boston) you’d see that the better value was Semien.
Rationalizations of Bloom’s choices are written daily on this site. Actual evaluations of his choices are not. Opportunity lost is a real concept and if you look at every position Bloom has filled you’ll find opportunity cost that could have made the Red Sox better today and tomorrow.
Two signings have played out well. Renfroe is better than anyone expected and Pivetta turned out better than most expected. Renfroe was necessary to fix a mistake made when they shipped Benny to KC. It was a good recovery because he had an excellent year but from a future standpoint I would rather have Benny than Renfroe in future years. Pivetta was the type of move I expected when Bloom signed in Boston. He got rushed to the majors to make a GM look good on a trade and it completely destroyed his future in Philly. His value was greater than his cost unlike players like Richards, Perez and the dozens of guys no longer with the Red Sox that were brought in for a tryout by Bloom.
If your opinion is that Bloom is doing a good job that’s fine. Everyone evaluates performance differently. My rules surely vary from yours and there is no right answer. I simply prefer somebody to focus on the problems in front of them (ie the missing pieces) rather than the Dick Vermeil approach of having a public tryout to find players for the team. I guess when a coach moves from college to the pros or a GM moves from a frugal small market to a big market radically different approaches to doing their job can be expected.
I would have preferred a more traditional approach. The team is short at SP so contract a big market SP. The team has two DHs, reduce it to one and swap for another missing piece. The idea of adding a third DH is radical thinking. I’m not sure how that will work out in 2022 but for 2021 the team figured out a way to overcome the mistake. The team deserves all the credit for the magical season because they actually play the games.
If you prefer to credit ownership, Bloom or Cora for their wins and losses that’s your choice. It makes no sense to me having played. JD is doing what he’s doing because video is back not because of anything ownership, Bloom or Cora has done. I could go through the whole team the same way and only those brought to Boston can say Bloom impacted their results by putting the results towards Boston’s wins versus their last team’s wins. The ACTUAL performance though is still owned by the player and nobody else..
…. – I warned you. People who got kicked off are not welcome back.
…. – The probabilities I presented for remaining games reflected normal win/loss trends by the team in the playoff race.
The reason Boston has more than 89 wins is during September they have outperformed their norm. Against TB to start the month they won two games in TB which was 1 more than predicted. The home series with CLE went as predicted and BOS won 2 of 3. BOS then won one of three at home against TB as expected. Then they went on the road and won 1 of 3 as expected in Chicago.
The advancement in their numbers started in SEA where they won 2 of 3 rather than 1 of 3. Then they swept BAL rather than winning 2 of 3. So by Sept 19 they were 3 games ahead of where they should have been. They just swept NYM making it 4 games ahead of where they should have been. That moves the prediction of 89 to 93 due to the unexpected wins. That is why they are now favored to be the WC1.
You seem to think the mathematical predictions are my predictions rather than simple logical extensions of the trends of the season. Your confusion on simple mathematical premises makes me wonder if you attended school beyond 8th grade. Do you somehow feel better about yourself now that you have gotten booted off the site and come back to try to harass me?
Maybe you would serve yourself better by not commenting and embarrassing yourself because you don’t understand the principles being discussed in my posts!
Joe …. FTR I’m a fan of his and am obviously glad he’s performed this well for us. Without question, if he replicates this year’s performance next season then he’s worth the contract. Again you have to look at context, he WAS an overpay at the time he was signed. Not only because of his prior two season decline, but also because of the overall market at the time. And Bloom certainly didn’t uncover a hidden gem here, it was all about the Cora Connection. Not much different than when Pedro convinced Theo to sign Ortiz.
But I have to ask, why did Friedman instead keep Taylor even though he’s older and more expensive? He kept him because he’s better, his career numbers such as OPS prove that.
I had read the article about Taylor that you referenced. I disagree with that writer’s opinion about Taylor’s earning power, but I agree with him on how good Taylor is.
Plus you already have the double-agent in Ottavino.
Anyone have any idea if he will get stretched out next year for a possible starting role?
Still being heavily talked about, but I don’t know how I feel about Whitlock becoming a starter.
Regardless of how tall he becomes, I think there will be a good chance he becomes a starter next year.
Not in favor myself of removing a guy like Whitlock who has shown how dominating can be as a long reliever and then moving to starter, even if has done that in the minors prior. Have seen to many once dominant MLB relievers fall flat as starters, then if returned to relief? never be the same again. People see a guy as good as Whitlock is and just auto want him to be a starter without looking at some prior history, just think “what if” without looking at pros and cons, like wearing horse blinders.
I agree not every dominant reliever is best suited to be a starter, but Whitlock has a legit 4 pitch mix that plays at the MLB level. He is also 6’5 and his frame is going to fill out enabling him to put up the innings required of a starter, Whitlock is a prototypical starter.
If this guy falls flat on his ass next year…..just make sure you’re still commenting so that we can hear how you explain it all!
No doubt he has had a nice year but really?
This guy has 1 year’s track record and a whole 45 games, and 72 innings of baseball ……
After all, you have all the answers right?
Rocky7 – Loved your comments. I’m not ready to make Whitlock a HOFer either. Can’t it just be one more lucky break within a season full of lucky breaks? Does every performance in 2021 dictate what the player will do in all seasons after 2021? I remember going through this logic back in 2018. How did that turn out? Yep unforeseen injuries, bad managerial decisions, diversity issues, poor timing to recognizing severe injuries. 2018 was much like 2021 from an injury stand point. 2019 was significantly different so what will 2022 bring?
He probably will have a lousy second years. He’s never pitched this many innings, in his career and he’s been overworked down the stretch, to boot.
Noone is putting him in the “HOF” other than KD17. But, plain and simple, he’s a major reason the Red Sox are going to make the playoffs this year, and it was a bad gaffe that the Yankees management allowed this to happen.
Puk – I think you misread my statement I specifically said I am not ready to make Whitlock a HOFer. You suggest in your comment I said the opposite.
Also, my comment wasn’t really about Whitlock at all. My point was that when a lucky season happens take the win. The future is uncertain and after the 2018 season nobody saw the injuries and poor managerial decisions that would destroy 2019. Whitlock could follow in Pearce’s footsteps and be a bust next year or he could step up and be a permanent part of the Red Sox future. Time will tell.
Really nothing controversial in my praise of Rocky7’s comment.
Put him on the rack to get him to 6’6”!!!!
I hope not, I still remember the Daniel Bard disaster. Whitlock is doing a great job in his current role.
And, just because this gets a little more real every day, my projections:
RS 92.9
TO 92.0
NY 90.2
SE 88.5
OK 87.9
TB 98.4
It’s weird to say there is a lot of baseball left to be played with only 10 games to go in the season but that is exactly the case here. This is going to be a very exciting finish and the Red Sox need to keep the pedal down. They have gotten hot at the right time hopefully they can bury the Yankees this weekend that would be great.
Joe — I will be disappointed if the Sox do not win 94. They have 7 gms vs teams with losing records that have been 9-21 recently. I protect 5.5 w 1.5 L. With the 3 vs NY at Fenway 1.5 w 1.5 L .
94 wins with the Bosox having the tie breaker should give them the home field.
Of course, I’m old enough to remember the 1964 Phils.
I’m old enough to remember the 1955 Phil S when he was Sgt Bilko.
Joe – Do you have projected wins broken out by series?
I’m thinking 1 this weekend, 3 in Baltimore and 2 in DC for a total of 94.
Fever Pitch Guy
Joe – Do you have projected wins broken out by series?
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Of course. I’m not an animal.
NYY 1.6
BAL 1.8
WSN 1.8
The limitations to my predictions is that they are confined to quantity, and not quality. BA, for example, is two different teams. If they have Means going, they are competitive. Even I wanted to drill down a little, it might make a difference. And I might be slightly conservative.
LOL … thanks! I think the Sox will sweep either Baltimore or Washington, assuming they will have something to play for right up to the last game of the season.
Just looking at the pitching matchups:
Sale vs Akin 6.63 ERA
Eovaldi vs Lowther 9.61 ERA
Pivetta vs Wells 7.96 ERA
ERod vs Fedde 5.10 ERA
Houck vs Rogers 2.16 ERA
Sale vs Gray 5.92 ERA
Needless to say, the middle game of the Nats series is the only one of the 6 games that I think they could lose.
I’m still ecstatic that we had the good fortune of missing Ellis and Means in both of the series against Baltimore.
Certainly good matchups for us, but don’t write off Fedde. His ERA is hurt by some blowouts, but he still has maybe 10 good starts, and the Nats have gone 12-14 in his starts.
Joe, I agree on Fedde. That one won’t be easy to win.
I was hoping to attend some of those games in DC if they are meaningful, but with the craziness that’s been going on in that area it just ain’t worth it.
As I wrote a few days ago
“The teams that flinch and lose take a big step toward elimination.”
As the fourth to last series conclude for all the contending AL Wild Card teams we see that two teams flinched.
1 – TOR flinched big time by losing 2 games on both BOS and NYY.
2 – OAK flinched by losing the first two games against SEA in OAK.
The remainder of the schedule is as follows:
BOS – 3 games at home vs NYY, 3 games n BAL and 3 games in WAS
TOR – 4 games in MIN, 3 games at home vs NYY, 3 games at home vs BAL
NYY – 3 games in BOS, 3 games in TOR, 3 games at home vs TB
With 9 games left a two game lead is not insurmountable but the probabilities of someone closing the 2 game gap with 9 left is low. As a result it’s time to eliminate SEA and OAK from the WC consideration. While not mathematically eliminated, they are more than improbable to gain 2 games on both TOR and NYY especially with 4 games left between them..
Because of the schedule it seems likely that BOS will be WC 1, TOR WC 2 and NYY and SEA tied two games behind TOR with OAK another couple of games behind them
Ray vs Sale in BOS on OCT 4th.
There is no reason to expect Sale to pitch on the final Sunday because TOR should be behind them going into the last game so pitching Seabold and others makes perfect sense. Then Sale on Monday and if they win Eovaldi in TB on Tuesday. Probably E-Rod on Wednesday in TB, Pivetta on Friday in Boston and Sale on Saturday in Boston.
Obviously 1 million things or more could impact the likely scenario including another round of COVID issues, injuries or Cora being Cora but things now look very positive for Boston to be the WC1 thanks to TB beating up TOR. They will probably do the same to NYY to finish the season and ending their chances for WC2. It will be interesting to see if there are firings before the wildcard game is played. It’s hard to know if this year will be discounted as the year the Yankees got under the cap or will missing the playoffs create change. Sounds like a good soap opera.
FYI – The current records of the three key Wildcard contenders are:
BOS – 88 – 65
RANGE of FINISH = Floor 92 wins and Ceiling 95 wins
the 3 games with the Yankees should provide two additional wins, likewise for the BAL series but this series could yield 3 wins and at least 1 win in the WAS series with 2 wins more likely. .
TOR – 85 – 67
RANGE of FINISH – Floor 91 wins and Ceiling 93 wins
the four games in MIN should provide 2 wins, the 3 games with NYY should provide 2 wins and the 3 games with BAL should provide 2 wins and possibly 3 wins for a total of 91 and possibly 92 wins.
NYY – 86 – 67
RANGE of FINISH – Floor 89 wins and Ceiling 92 wins
the three games in BOS should provide 1 win, the 3 games in TOR should provide one win and the 3 games at home against TB should produce 1 win but could produce 2. With 3 additional wins they finish at 89 or 90 depending on the TB series.
The precise projections are
WC 1 – BOS 93, WC2 – TOR 91 Odd man out NYY 89.
The fact that BOS out=performed their standard projections by 4 games in September bodes well for their match-up with TOR who lost ground to their standard projection. TB is still going to be waiting for the winner and will be a huge uphill battle for BOS.
Be thankful for the magical season. The players have over performed like they tend to do every several years. Usually they win a ring when they over-perform by this much but since the talent level is so far down from the 2018 team fans should simply be thankful it wasn’t a disaster like 2020. And the owners made probably $10M more in profits by not spending money to get the players they needed to compete for a ring. I guess that makes it a win-win.
My latest projections, FWIW:
BOS 93.2
TOR 91.5
NYY 90.4
SEA 88.5
OAK 86.9
I still like 94 Ws for the Sox. Even if they lose 2 to NY and go 4-2 vs Bal/Was they win 93.
The off days and short trip to Balt/Was, really helps them.
Just in regard to the off-days and favorable closing schedules, this is one of my pet peeves. After the AS, they had a brutal schedule. In those first 26 games, we played the NYY (7). Toronto (10), TBR (6), and 3 at Detroit. When you go 11-15, the press treats it like an absolute disaster. With 15 out of the 26 toughs games on the road, 13 wins would’ve been an aggressive prediction.
Ofttimes, the schedules are greatly overlooked when determining how well or badly a team is doing.
Joe that’s why I always say to look behind the numbers. A proper analysis takes into account all factors and variables.
And the Sox had to play those 26 games in just 29 days!!
It’s too bad Schwarber wasn’t activated sooner, he would have made a big difference in many of the aforementioned 15 games that were lost. It all worked out though, can you believe some people didn’t like the trade?
BTW – Nothing against Arroyo as I do like the guy, but Cora darn well better start Hernandez at 2B in every postseason game. Both Schwarber and Dalbec have to be in the lineup every day.
And the Sox had to play those 26 games in just 29 days!!
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One more of my complaints about the RS writers. One of two of them were mentioning the Toronto games-in-hand. That concept is meaningless. All it meant was that TO (and NY) had to play more games in September, making us better rested and allowing us the luxury of a 4-man rotation. The writers were acting as if that was a huge advantage for TO.
Cora darn well better start Hernandez at 2B in every postseason game.
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Nope. I could change my mind, depending on how well Arroyo returns, but I’ve had enough of treating defense like it doesn’t count. Granted, Arroyo is not nearly as good as Iggy defensively, but over the past week, I think we’ve seen just what we’ve been missing on the defensive side.
Kike in CF and Iggy at 2nd makes the RS a mediocre+ defensive team, instead a cringe-worthy defensive team.
The playoff roster will have Duran & Santana with Iggy & Shaw inelig. Once the Sox clinch WC-1 they will release Iggy & Shaw to open up the active roster spots.
Hopefully the Sox will clinch WC-1 with two gms left so that they can get Duran & Santana some AB’s.
Joe, Iggy isn’t eligible for the postseason.
If you want Arroyo at 2B, then LF/DH has to be covered by JD/Kyle so that Dalbec can play 1B.
We saw further proof last night, now is not the time to experiment with Kyle at 1B.
And benching the hottest hitter on the planet these past two games was asinine.
jml, Shaw was acquired August 15 and is therefore eligible for the postseason.
No, waiver claims, like Shaw, after the trade deadline are not playoff elib.
I’m not seeing that anywhere. Every source I’ve seen, including the official MLB website, indicates all players who are either on the 40-man roster or on the 60-day IL as of August 31 are eligible for the postseason.
I stand corrected. When the new trade deadline rule was 1st reported critics opined that there would be “gentleman’s agreements” for some form of compensation over the winter if a waiver claim was successful in Aug. MLB said it would not be allowed but when the actual rule was written this issue was left out. At least this yr there were no waiver claims that do not pass the smell test.. In future yrs we shall see.
Fever Pitch Guy
Joe, Iggy isn’t eligible for the postseason.
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That I knew. But so long as we need regular season wins, then Iggy has to start at 2B.
IRT Schwarber, I agree. It is too late in the season to teach him how to play 1B.
That creates a log jam at the corner OF positions + DH, but I would just rotate Schwarber, Verdugo, Renfroe and JD depending on matchups.