The Red Sox have released reliever Brandon Brennan, reports Alex Speier of the Boston Globe (Twitter link). He’d been with Triple-A Worcester after passing through outright waivers a couple months ago.
A Rule 5 draftee of the Mariners over the 2018-19 offseason, Brennan was a frequently-used bullpen option in Seattle in 2019. That year, he tossed 47 1/3 innings of 4.56 ERA ball, issuing a few too many walks but missing a fair amount of bats and racking up ground-balls at a 55.2% rate. The right-hander missed most of last season due to a severe oblique strain, though, and Seattle designated him for assignment this April.
The Red Sox claimed Brennan off waivers, but he’d only make one appearance with the big league club. He tossed three innings of scoreless relief but was designated for assignment the following night when Boston needed a fresh arm. Otherwise, Brennan has spent the year with Worcester, tossing 37 2/3 frames of relief for the WooSox. He’s only managed a 5.97 ERA, but his strikeout and walk rates (21.4% and 8.7%, respectively) weren’t far off the league average.
Brennan was plagued by opponents’ elevated .363 batting average on balls in play in Worcester and probably didn’t pitch as poorly as that run prevention mark would indicate. Nevertheless, he’d clearly fallen down the organizational depth chart, as the front office called upon other hurlers to come up in recent weeks while the big league pitching staff dealt with a series of COVID-19 related absences. Brennan will now be free to sign elsewhere, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see another club add the 30-year-old on a minor league deal to bolster their bullpen depth.
JB – Here is the five team update for the two wild card spots =
TOR = expected wins 91
Current series w/TB at home TOR 1-1 (prediction is 2 of 3)
NYY – expected wins 90.
Current series w/BAL at BAL NYY 1-0 (prediction is 2 of 3)
BOS – expected wins 89
Current series w/SEA away 1-1 (prediction is 1 of 3)
SEA – expected wins 88
Current series w/BOS at home 1-1 (prediction is 2 of 3)
OAK – expected wins 86
Current series w/KC away 0-1 (prediction is 1 of 3)
Current standings
TOR – 81 – 64
NYY – 81 – 64
BOS – 82 – 65
SEA – 78 – 67
OAK – 77 – 67
It’s going to be real close but as you propose, we could miss the postseason. The Jays are filthy good. If we get in it, we have a small chance of moving on. I’d like to think Yankees are in the same boat.
pwndroia – One game playoffs are not going to be easy. NYY will throw Cole. Tor will throw Ray. Not sure if BOS throws Sale or Eovaldi.
SEPT 24th is the key date. Going into that day the standings need to be close for BOS to have a chance. I think by then both SEA and OAK fall 3 games or more behind the pack of TOR, NYY and BOS. 9 games left (3 series of 3) for each team at that point.
BOS – NYY at home, BAL away and WAS away
TOR – MIN away, NYY at home and BAL at home
NYY – BOS away, TOR away and TB at home
Boston should win 6, TOR should win 6 but could sweep BAL for 7 wins
NYY will have to earn their spot. They need 2 in BOS and TOR and 2 at home against TB to keep pace. That’s why they need to be leading the WC race by the 24th of Sept and the lead needs to be at least one game if not two or more.
Never thought BOS would be here but you have to love the way they are overcoming an inept GM and a terrible manager. That speaks volumes to the heart of the leadership of this club. Kudos to JD, Bogey, Devers and Eovaldi for dragging the other guys on such a great journey.
“inept GM” who is going to win or finish 2nd in Executive of the Year.
Everyone is inept and terrible from the armchair.
Check your math. Boston has 82 wins, You have them down for winning 6 of their final 9. That brings them up to 88. But the 88 doesn’t include at Seattle (1), the NYMs at home (2), and BA at home (3). The expected win total for those 6 games should be at least 3. That would bring them up to 91.
Past that, I have TO at 92, and NYY for 90.8. And I have the same as you for Seattle & Oakland.
Hopefully you’re right on NY and TO. We beat TO in the season series, so if we finish tied, we’d have the one-game series at home. We won’t do much better than that.
dennyd – Who cares? It doesn’t make him less inept. He failed twice in December properly non-tendering players. He failed at the deadline and he has yet to replace the talent he gave away 18 months ago.
Awards are political not earned.
Whyhayzee – How incredibly self abusive!!!
I care. I like when my team’s personnel win awards (if he wins). It shows that they were voted the best at their jobs.
I like how you put all the credit for the team in a few guys who were here before Bloom. Such hogwash. Not giving any credit to the newer players is so biased. So they had to “drag” Renfroe, Kiki, Verdugo, Schwarber, Whitlock, Sawarmura, and others. Give the guys credit for at least not weighing too much as they were being ‘dragged’.
dennyd
Not giving any credit to the newer players is so biased.
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It is so disingenuous, that the statements mean nothing. There is not a single person in the 333M people in this country, except AL34, that will believe this is entirely DD’s team.
I expect a lot of people would debate it both ways, but not a single person won’t recognize Bloom’s contribution.
dennyd – Schwarber is here how long? Yep big contribution compared to Bogey. Kiki’s sub .250 average vs the big 3? Yep big contributor compared to alternative choices in the marketplace. Do you really not comprehend the significance of Bogey, JD, Devers, Eovaldi and even Barnes? Compared to the complimentary pieces who could have been other players that were available and done as well or better?
You must be a paid influencer or baseball must be your other sport. Read up on how teams win championships. You start with a foundation and that came from DD. You add complimentary pieces that are completely replaceable, that’s the Bloom contribution and frankly he could have done SO MUCH better.
The fact that JB agrees with you should give you an indication of how wrong you are but again you are behaving like a paid influencer who just supports Bloom because it’s money in your pocket. I understand JB, for him it’s not about money in his pocket. It’s just a very, very unique perspective on baseball.
Trying to discuss numbers with you is a lost cause, but the fact remains that Bloom’s guys have 50% of the bWAR at 20% of the salary. And that 5 of the top-9 WAR guys are Bloom’s guys.
It’s kind of amazing how much of your time is devoted to trying to give credit to DD for this year’s team.
12 errors now for Renfroe …. is he normally this bad, or is he still getting over his recent personal issue?
JB – The FOUNDATION of this team is DD’s. The replaceable parts are Bloom’s. It shouldn’t be that hard to figure out.
FIVE OF THE TOP WAR and every other stat are Bloom’s guys because only FOUR of the elite 2018 team are left starting for the Red Sox. The rest are the replacements and how appropriate that names is for them!!!
Do the math 5 Bloom starters and 4 DD starters. The 3 highest are DDs and the bottom of the top 9 are Blooms. 9 starters. Don’t you comprehend why you are saying NOTHING each time you boast 5 of the top 9 at any stat are Bloom’s guys? This is NOT that hard to comprehend. There are nine starters and 5 are Blooms. All stats will reflect 5 of the top 9 to be Bloom’s. WOW!!!.
And also WAR is a joke for measuring anything. You might as well flip a coin and make up a number if you are going to use WAR or any offshoot of WAR.
Actually the two highest are Cherington not DD but why quibble about facts.
Then again let’s not let facts get into the way of a rant.
5 of the top 9 wAR, not 5 of the top 9 offensive players. Pay attention.
In bWAR order, it is:
DD
TE
CB
BC
DD
CB
CB
CB
CB
So DD has 2 of our top-9 producers.
Bruin1012 – Try to stay on topic. We are counting Bloom and pre-Bloom not origin. Why chime in to be an obnoxioux jerk? You bored?
JB – First NOBODY cares about bWAR because it’s a fictitious derived number with so many assumptions built into it that aren’t valid which renders it useless except to those generalist that don’t comprehend the game but play with numbers.
Next, this is so incredibly simple and now you’ve dovetailed on Bruin1012 incredibly uninformed comment to spin this to change the meaning of the discussion from Pre-Bloom to DD and people who acquired players. That was never the discussion until Bruin1012 butted in.
Bloom and Pre-Bloom. That means Bloom can’t take credit for them which I point out ALL THE TIME.. More importantly, my point to you was so simple a 1st grader would understand it but apparently it escapes you.
IF there are 4 starters left from prior to Bloom (Devers, Bogey, JD and Vazquez) and two rookies who have played part time this season why wouldn’t it be logical that ANY stat would show Bloom guys as 5 of the top 9? It’s self evident due to Bloom shipping out 5 of the better players to other teams (Mookie, JBJ, Benny, Chavis and Moreland) If those five were still starting then ZERO from Bloom would be in the top 9 because none of his guys would be starting!! Isn’t that obvious?
You made such a big point out of something I told you is self evident and irrelevant because 5 of the top 9 is the number of Bloom starters on the hitting side. WOW. These are things that shouldn’t have to be explained!!!
That’s not what you said KD you said and I quote “ The foundation of the team is DD’s” and that is simply not true.
Great game last night!
You seem to be a little touchy this morning. BTW, did you get a chance to look at your math issue? To repeat:
“Check your math. Boston has 82 wins, You have them down for winning 6 of their final 9. That brings them up to 88. But the 88 doesn’t include at Seattle (1), the NYMs at home (2), and BA at home (3). The expected win total for those 6 games should be at least 3. That would bring them up to 91. “
Inept GM made a contender and did wonders with the farm. They should all be so inept.
luckyh – The only positive in the farm system came from finishing 4th to last and getting a high draft pick. How is that a credit to Bloom? Think before you write!!!! Mayer got them 250 points thanks to the ineptness of Bloom. What a positive!! hahahahaha
They were contenders since 2018 just less of contenders now. Talent level is still way down from the 2018 team.
Bruin1012 – Taken out of context that sentence has a different meaning. The ENTIRE conversation was whether Bloom gets to take credit of anything accomplished in 2021 since the key players existed when he arrived. I used DD as the GM that existed prior to Bloom not as the guy that brought any of the players to the team. They simply existed prior to Bloom arriving.
That was so obvious that you just felt like being a jackass. Mission accomplished!
You might want to see who drafted most of our top prospects.
And how do you think Bloom acquired prospects in trades? How did Bloom get the players he traded?
Nick Yorke was drafted by Bloom and he is looking really good on that one he seems to know what he is doing in drafts. The thing is it is far to early to judge Bloom. It may turn out that he is not a food GM but right now the jury is still out and he needs some more time to see if his vision works. His drafting looks really good so far.
KD is the one who is inept. He can not even add.
Bruin1012
Nick Yorke was drafted by Bloom and he is looking really good
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This is why I don’t generally comment on farm development. It takes years to assess draft picks. Neither Yorke nor Jordan were ranked, but as likely as not it is due to their ages (19 & 18). It’s just too soon for scouts to get a handle on their tools, and sometimes even which position they will play. Jordan, for example, rates out completely differently as a 3B than as a 1B.
And some of the international signings are too young for organized US minor league games.
JB- Yorke is a 19 year old who is playing at Greenville after starting at Salem. Except for the first month of the season when he hit .160 he has absolutely killed it. He should as a 20 year old start at AA the kid can absolutely rake and he is unlike Duran and Gilberto in that he doesn’t use blazing speed against inferior minor league defense to get his hits. I only bring him up because someone this sight hasn’t paid any attention to Blooms draft picking which so far has been very good.
I expect that Yorke as 20 year old will start at AA next year and unless the jump exposes him might even get to AAA next year. So far it looks like Bloom has pretty good idea on how to draft. Only time will tell but numerous Bloom picks have looked very good to start their minor league careers. I pay pretty close attention to the minors and I’m telling you Yorke is impressive.
Sure the Jays are talented, but whichever team is hot at the end of the regular season will have the best chance of advancing in the postseason. It is possible the Sox could do it, but I wouldn’t bet on ANY AL team in the postseason. Too much of a crapshoot.
BTW – It’s pointless trying to predict which pitchers will start the Wild Card Game, mainly because the participants probably won’t be settled until the last weekend of the season. So if Sale or Cole need to pitch on October 2 or 3 to get into the Wild Card game, they will. No team is going to hold back their ace pitcher for the Wild Card Game if they need them to get into that game.
And with three teams so close, I wouldn’t be surprised if there’s a one game playoff to get into the Wild Card Game.
I agree on all counts. I’ve always maintained that no one is really eliminated at this point, unless they are truly eliminated. I think Oakland has the worst shot, but almost every team in baseball can win 5 in a row.
And predicting pitchers is difficult, even short-term. I’d like to see ERod, Eovaldi & Sale line up for the NYY series, but we also need at least 3-5 v BA/NYM.
IRT to one-game play-in games, we’re actually fortunate here because either Sale or Eovaldi could start consecutive one-game series without a lot of downside.
Exactly ten years ago today, the Red Sox got smoked at home 9-2 by the Rays.
The Sox were still up 3 games on the Rays for the WC, but they had been up 9 games to start the month of September.
By the time September finished, the Sox went 7-20 for the month and missed the postseason.
Then they went home to consume all the chicken and beer they wanted.
Okay guys, you motivated me to pick up a pen and piece of paper.
Here is what I think SHOULD be the starting rotation for the remainder of the month. If Cora somehow regains consciousness and follows what I am about to reveal here, I expect some sort of prize.
Sept 17 Baltimore – Pivetta on normal rest
Sept 18 Baltimore – Sale returns
Sept 19 Baltimore – ERod with one extra day of rest
Sept 21 Mets – Eovaldi with two days extra rest
Sept 22 Mets – Pivetta on normal rest
Sept 24 Yankees – Sale with one extra day of rest
Sept 25 Yankees – ERod with one extra day rest
Sept 26 Yankees – Eovaldi on normal rest
Sept 28 @ Orioles – Pivetta with one extra day rest
Sept 29 @ Orioles – Sale on normal rest
Sept 30 @ Orioles – ERod on normal rest
Oct 01 @ Nats – Eovaldi on normal rest
Oct 02 @ Nats – 5th starter
Oct 03 @ Nats – Pivetta on normal rest
And then Sale is lined up perfectly for a play-in game or the Wild Card Game.
2011 was a season being chopped up bit by bit.
The first shoe to drop was Dice. He had B2B one-hitters, and his season was over by 5/16.
The second shoe was Lackey. That was Theo’s fault. He loved the idea of getting a free season out of Lackey, so he gave him 28 starts of 6.41 ERA.
The third shoe was Buchholz’s neck injury. Theo should’ve made a move for an SP at that point, but this was on the medical team and their ‘we don’t MRI boo-boos’ approach.
The 4th shoe to drop was Beckett slipping off the mound in Toronto. He was likely either #1 or #2 in C.Y. at that point, but he didn’t recover.
After that, we had no pitching left. Wake was our best September SP with a 5.25. Even Bard, who had a 2.03 thru 8/31, wound up with a 10.64 in September.
I like it, but maybe consider flipping ERod and Eovaldi on the 19/21. That would keep Eovaldi on schedule, but give ERod 8 days rest.
I’m not crazy about the 8 days rest, but it splits up the two lefties, and lines up Sale/Eovaldi for the playoffs. If we have a play-in game, we would still have a good choice to pitch the W/C game.
FPG – Rotowire says Sale set to pitch the 17th. So move up E-Rod to the 18th and Pivetta to the 19th. Things work out the same after that.
Good memory!
Bard was absolutely electrifying for that two year period of 2010/2011, it’s a shame his comeback seems to have fizzled out this year.
Hard to believe, but Clay is the last really good starting pitcher to be drafted and developed by the Sox. It’s been a long time.
Sox got robbed when they traded Lackey to the Cards and they got the freebie year. Yeah Kelly helped in the 2018 postseason, but Lackey was dominant in 2015..
I know Sale is eligible for the 17th.
If Pivetta drops down to the 19th, who pitches the 22nd?
And then Pivetta doesn’t start for 9 days?
I do NOT want anybody but those 4 guys starting between now and October 2 (when a 5th starter is finally needed)
This is assuming you want the Yankee series to be some form of Sale/ERod/Eovaldi.
Good point Joe, I was hoping the Wild Card Game would be on Wednesday but you’re right – it’s on Tuesday.
FPG – Not a fan of Houck? Why not Houck rather than Pivetta? Or have them alternate so rest isn’t an issue. For me, Houck has a higher floor and less risk but Pivetta may have a higher ceiling right now.
Best chance against NYY is Sale, Eovaldi and E-Rod if he can handle the pressure. E-Rod versus the big righty line-up scares me. Houck or Pivetta for me are just as likely to beat them.
KD17
FPG – Not a fan of Houck? Why not Houck rather than Pivetta?
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IMO, Houck’s repertoire (and no, I didn’t have to spell-check that word) plays better out of the BP.. It’ll sound strange, but Pivetta gets the starts because he isn’t as good.
One of the writers had a good suggestion.last night (don’t remember who). With all the days off, go to a four-man rotation, and then piggy-back Sale/Houck and ERod/Whitlock. Eovaldi has been going deep consistently, so he probably doesn’t need a designated RP.
And, of course, if ERod loses it one game, it becomes a BP game, and then Whitlock piggybacks Pivetta in his next start.
The comment made so much sense that I hesitate to credit a Boston writer with the idea.
Absolutely I’m a fan of Houck! It’s just too soon to value him above Pivetta.
Nick is 3rd on the team in QS
Nick is 2nd on the team in WHIP
Nick is 3rd on the team in IP despite his stint on the IL
11 times he’s gone 5+ with 2 or less ER (same as ERod)
7 times he’s gone 5+ with 1 or less ER (one less than ERod)
5 times he’s gone 5+ and given up no ER (same as ERod)
He’s been our #2 or #3 starter no matter how you look at it
Who made the suggestion, the Curly Haired Boyfriend? Sorry but it’s a bad one.
Last thing we need is to have designated relievers for specific pitchers, locking them into certain games regardless of what actually happens in the games.
Whitlock should continue to be available in multiple high leverage situations out of the bullpen.
And if Sale leaves a game in the 4th or 5th with a huge lead or deficit, I wouldn’t want to waste Houck in that situation.
Excessive pre-planning of bullpen management has hurt the game enough already.
It’s the general concept, not the specifics. If Sale is pitching a perfect game, with a 70 PC after 5, I am sure they will leave him in. The idea would be to go to a 4-man rotation, and make Houck a super-sub, like Whitlock.
4-man rotation is a no-brainer with all the off-days this month. You saw my projected starters for the rest of the season, a 5th starter is not needed until October 2.
Please don’t tell me the writer is PA, he’s the worst thing to happen to the Globe since Gammons left.
BTW – Just curious, what’s the Joe for? Thornton? I know who the Brady is for. LOL
1-Pete Abraham-I wouldn’t call him knowledgeable, but he works hard. Most of the Boston writers don’t recognize trends until they become obvious. They were writing about Rizzo for about a month, even though he stopped hitting after about a week. Then ignored Schwarber until he was starring in every game. Then they posted about him every day, even though he has come back to earth. Yesterday, they had like 7 writers bagging on the RS defense, even though the defense has been poor all year. Pete and Lou are the only guys that consistently do a good job.
2-That’s my nickname. I hate the Pats and Brady, in a respectful kind of way.
Will have to disagree on PA, but out of respect won’t give some of the many reasons why. I know him too well, going back to his days with the Courant.
Bradford is pretty good, Merloni is fantastic, and my favorite is Alex Speier.
I miss Cafardo.
FPG – To be fair to Houck he’s pitched far less but his innings have been better by most pitching yardsticks. The volume differential swayed all the numbers you presented. Some other stats to consider:
Pivetta 140.1 IP Houck 57.2
Pivetta BB% 10.3% Houck 6.6%
PIvetta HR% 3.5% Houck 1.7%
Pivetta XBH% 8.5% Houck 5.8%
Pivetta BAA .233 Houck .242
Pivetta OBP .317 Houck .310
Pivetta OPS .730 Houck .657
Pivetta K% 26.5 Houck 28.8
Pivetta HardHit% 39.4% Houck 37.1
Pivetta ERA 4.55 Houck 3.75
Pivetta WHIP 1.318 Houck 1.197
Pivetta ERA+ 104 Houck 127
Overall, I think they are close but I give the edge to Houck. That’s why I would use him more than you suggested and he doesn’t have blow ups like E-Rod so I trust him more than E-Rod in key games. It’s a conservative move because he has a higher floor but a low ceiling than E-Rod because E-Rod is incredibly inconsistent and if you catch him on a bad day, game over! Houck is more likely to keep the team in the game on his bad days thus a lower risk.
Right now the Yankmees are having a hard time beating anyone but Baltimore! Expected just means somebody’s guess. All these games have to be played, then we will see where we are.
My guess is Toronto and Boston get the wild cards in the AL.
And then there were 3 battling for the 2 wildcard spots
Through Sept 15th – TOR 82-64, NYY 82-64 BOS 83-65 (TOR & NYY 16 games, BOS 14)
9/16 – TOR – No Game, NYY @ BAL, BOS No Game
9/17 – TOR vs MIN, NYY vs CLE, BOS vs BAL
9/18 – TOR vs MIN, NYY vs CLE, BOS vs BAL
9/19 – TOR vs MIN, NYY vs CLE, BOS vs BAL
9/20 – TOR @ TB, NYY vs TEX, BOS No Game
9/21 – TOR @ TB, NYY vs TEX, BOS vs NYM
9/22 – TOR @ TB, NYY vs TEX, BOS vs NYM
9/23 – TOR @ MIN, NYY No Game, BOS No Game
9/24 – TOR @ MIN, NYY @ BOS, BOS vs NYY
9/25 – TOR @ MIN, NYY @ BOS, BOS vs NYY
9/26 – TOR @ MIN, NYY @ BOS, BOS vs NYY
9/27 – TOR No Game, NYY No Game, BOS No Game
9/28 – TOR vs NYY, NYY @ TOR, BOS @ BAL
9/29 – TOR vs NYY, NYY @ TOR, BOS @ BAL
9/30 – TOR vs NYY, NYY @ TOR, BOS @ BAL
10/1 – TOR vs BAL, NYY vs TB, BOS @ WAS
10/2 – TOR vs BAL, NYY vs TB, BOS @ WAS
10/3 – TOR vs BAL, NYY vs TB, BOS @ WAS
IF the Yankees win on Thursday 9/16 they will have a half game lead on TOR
All three teams play the next three games at home against weaker opponents
They must keep pace with the other two teams during this 3 game stretch.
Then on the 23rd TOR gets their chance to beat MIN to catch NYY assuming the 3 game series prior ended with the same results for each team.
So by the 23rd NYY NEED to have a lead on TOR and BOS because the last 9 games are toughest for them.
TOR and BOS need to keep pace with each other by ending with the same record against NYY @ home for both team and BAL @ BAL for BOS and BAL @ home for TOR..
Then it comes down to TOR @ MIN and BOS @ WAS. If the results are the same it’s likely that TOR and BOS will be tied and if NYY took two of three from both teams then NYY will be the #1 WC and if NYY took 1 of 3 from both teams then they are out.
If TOR and BOS finish with identical records as the two wild card teams would they have to play a play-in game to establish who is home for the actual wildcard game or could they save pitching by flipping a coin? Or is there a rule that gives one of team home field advantage in the event of a tie for the wildcard spots?
Also, OAK and SEA can be monitored throughout and reconsidered if they sweep a series but for all practical purposes OAK eliminated themselves over the last week and SEA eliminated themselves by losing at home 2 of 3 to BOS.
is there a rule that gives one of team home field advantage in the event of a tie for the wildcard spots?
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The team with the better H2H record gets the home field. And the RS won both series.
If it is a 3-way tie, and that’s a real possibility, I believe that TO plays the NYY. That winner gets in. The loser of that game then plays the RS, and that winner gets in. That’s actually advantageous for the RS, since presumably Ray and Cole would face off.
Joe in the scenario you’ve described, the Red Sox get screwed despite having the best H2H against both Jays/Yankees because they would have only one shot at getting into the Wild Card Game while the Jays and Yanks each would have two shots.
So actually if it’s a 3-way tie, Red Sox would play the Jays and if the Sox lose that game, they get to play one more game against the Yankees.
The way it works, ever team has a 50/50 chance of getting in. All things being equal, the loser of G1 has a 50/50 chance of getting in. The only difference is that the RS are rewarded by only having to face the opponents #2 SP, while the participants of game 1 have to face the other team’s ace.
I don’t quite follow, but all I know is that I like the fact the Sox would have to win just 1 of the 2 tiebreaker games instead of having to win only one game played.
It has to be thought of as two separate ventures.
The best way to look at the three-way tie is to compare it to a 2-way tie. If it were a two-way tie, we’d have a one-game playoff in Boston, and have to face either Cole or Ray, depending on whether the NYY or TO were the team tied with us.
In a three-way playoff, we have to face either the NYY or TO. That doesn’t change. But instead of facing Cole or Ray, we would have to face maybe Montgomery or Ryu. That’s a better matchup for us.
In addition, being team C, we are only using one of our ‘aces’. If the loser of the A/B game beats us, they wind up having to use their #1 & #2 SPs, meaning they go into the WC game with their #3 SP.
I have to point out again, if it’s a 3-way tie that means each team was trying hard to win every game leading up to the end of the regular season. No team is going to skip their ace pitcher so that they could “save” them for a potential Wild Card play-in game. If the Yankees need to win that final Saturday or Sunday, and it’s Cole’s turn to pitch one of those games, he’s not going to be “saved” for a potential play-in game that may never happen.
And the Red Sox would be team A because of their winning both H2H as you had mentioned.
True, they aren’t saving anyone. But, assuming that Cole stays on a calendar 5-day schedule, and not a rotation 5-day schedule, then he is scheduled to pitch game #158.
His next game is G163. If we have a 3-way tie, he pitches v TO. If we have a 2-way tie for the 2nd WC, he pitches against us.
And even if the calendar didn’t fall that way, either TO or NY could pitch their ace on 3-days rest instead of 4 days. And lastly, if it is TO/NY, the game is at TO, meaning that they need to fly into Boston that night.
These aren’t all huge advantages, but every one of them is in our favor.
JB – Think about this scenario
Current records
Boston leading 10 to 6 against the Yankees and 10 to 9 against TOR
for a record of 20-15 so they are in the lead
Toronto leading 10 to 6 against the Yankees and losing 9 to 10 to BOS
for a record of 19-16 so they are in second right now
NYY losing 6 to 10 against BOS and TOR
for a record of 12-20
Right now BOS has a 1 game lead on TOR BUT if NYY sweep BOS and TOR sweeps NYY then
BOS is 20=18 in the 3 way H2H (B)
TOR is 22- 16 in the 3 way H2H (A)
NY is 15-22 in the 3 way H2H (C)
The final six games between NYY and BOS & TOR matter.
BOS must keep pace winning the same number against NYY or more than TOR does against the Yankees. Otherwise, in the event of a three way tie BOS and TOR could tie in the 3 way H2H or TOR could win the 3 way H2H.
So to use your lettering system. If all three finish with identical records then H2H is used and it’s possible two of the three could have the exact same H2H record among the three teams. I guess A/B go to BOS/TOR regardless of which gets A and the winner gets the WC 1 spot and then the loser plays the Yankees to see who gets the WC 2 spot!! So game one is Monday and the losers then play Tuesday and then the WC game must be Wednesday and could be the same as the Monday game!! The only problem is where is Game 1 played between the two teams tied in the 3 way H2H. I reread the CBA and it doesn’t say. Flip of the coin? Maybe?
Lets hope there are no ties!!! Too complicated and too great a cost to the participants in a tie.
My latest calculation:
TO 92.5
RS 91.8
NY 91.0
SE 87.1
OAK 86.5
Seattle was always playing over the head with a 31-18 record in extra innings. But even at that, and the same as with the RS/WS series, they lost the series in extra innings, or they’d still be in it.
Oakland, who has an okay BP, just melted down in September, with a 1-5 and 8.71 ERA. Boston, with a similar BP, went 7-3 with a 3.77 in September.
Easy for Oakland to melt down when they are missing Bassitt (first on the team in WAR for pitchers) and Chapman (2nd on the team in WAR for position players).
And I used WAR just for you ;O)
Wait, I thought WAR didn’t count. And I thought pitchers didn’t count since they are position players?
That said, everyone has some injuries.
I’m trying to use numbers that you value with the hope that it would help convince you, just go with it. LOL
If we had lost Eovaldi and Devers, we wouldn’t be in the race either.
Pitchers are position players?
FPG – JB buys into all fabricated simulation numbers so that was smart to use numbers he can related to. I’m not sure why he now discounts pitchers but I’m sure some fabricated simulation game number is telling him to do so!! haha
Oh yea, WAR doesn’t count because it’s derivative and contrived. The entire concept of Wins against Replacement is pure guessing. That’s why each company doing it has come up with different numbers than it’s competitors since it was created, it’s been that way since the day some nerd first decided they could liken other scientific uses of averaging averages to baseball not realizing each new experience in a baseball game does not necessarily follow previous occurrences due to all things that lead up to each play in a game vary by pitch, game, day, week, year and all other circumstances impacting the upcoming event.
Statistics measure facts after they occur and that’s why they are far more accurate than guesses no matter how many factors are considered in your prediction. It’s still a prediction not a fact. WAR takes facts and converts those facts into fiction due to the invalidity of the assumptions being applied to the facts..
I love statistics myself, but many of the new ones are misused because they don’t incorporate key variables.
Bottom line, lots of advanced statistics were created just to make money.
Come up with a formula that is too complex for the average person to replicate, pump up the perception that the new formulas have greater value, then position yourself as one of the few sources to provide the formulas.
Where would Fangraphs be without the formulas that THEY created? Probably non-existent.
FPG – Outstanding commentary. I spent time digging into just ONE formula so I could see what assumptions were made to set the variables and constants in the formula. I didn’t like any of them. The assumptions are faulty and vary across companies calculating the statistic. I find the normalization techniques not reflective of reality. But most importantly, they are average based estimates not facts. Batting average and Fielding Percentage are still after the event facts. Batting and fielding metrics take those facts and try to fine tune them using so many assumptions that don’t necessarily apply.
Example: Does a greater range mean a better fielder? NOPE. They still have to catch the ball and throw out the runner. If a player who has all balls hit to him during a full season stays within a 10 foot diameter of his initial position and he fields 98% of the balls successfully have a bad year if the next year they are within 8 feet of him but his fielding percentage is identical? Common sense says no but modern metrics downgrades the fielder for less range due to parameters outside the scope of control of the player. BIG PROBLEM!!.
Fangraphs is the problem not the solution. It needs to explain to baseball fans that their numbers are ONE set of possible values that could be concluded based on a very specific string of assumptions about the game of baseball. Those assumptions are in a constant state of change making the number from last year less reliable than the one from this year or next year. Can they ever find perfection? No because predicting the future accurately is impossible. Too many variables.
Just because you start with facts that true baseball fans have used to measure players for a century or more and then you try to refine them by adding assumptions based on the past which may or may not predict the future accurately doesn’t make the numbers valid. It’s one guess in a world filled with a million guesses as to what might happen if a ball is hit to a player or what might happen if a player is being evaluated for the next year or his career. The future will continue to be unknown whether and the probabilities of being right are not accurate with modern metrics. The only real facts we know are a batter is out or safe based on what happened in the game. Those fundamental statistics ARE BASEBALL. They don’t possibly represent baseball they ARE BASEBALL. FACTS!!
“Example: Does a greater range mean a better fielder? NOPE.”
===========================================
The actual answer is that it is unanswerable without more input.
If, for example, you added “all other factors being equal”, then the answer is yes, greater range always means being a better fielder. Just for fun, take a look at some of Jeter’s stats. In 2014, his fielding % was a reasonable .973, but he had almost 200 less assists than Segura, who had a .975.
JB – No math background? Simple answer is if there is the possibility of it being no then the answer is no. The logic statement format should be familar to an old numbers guy like you!!
Your example doesn’t fit your comment. haha
FYI…. Jeter is one of the most over-rated players in history based on the HOF vote. Never ONCE the best shortstop in baseball during his 20 year career. That’s speak to how political the voting is which is why he got in on the first vote. I applaud the writer who said NO. Every voter should have said NO and voted him in the following year or many years later to put him in perspective compared to other truly great shortstops.
Uh-oh … don’t look now, but Benni is batting .400 with a 1.106 OPS over his last 15 games.
Last 30 games he’s .352/.372/.557
If he’s figured it out, that could turn into a really really bad trade.
FPG – Bad trade from DAY 1. His numbers did not suggest a downward trend they suggested some bad BOSTON batting coaches and a guy who got hurt in 2020. It was just a matter of time. He’ll be a 111 to 125 OPS+ guy his whole career and his price was reasonable for that level of production. The good news is if Bloom gets canned the Red Sox could bring him back for a decent price since BLOOM paid for him to play in KC (yep another brilliant move!!) but he might demand Cora be fired as well. He treated Benny like crap after Benny played a key role in the 2018 ring.
Chavis will be the next one to prove Bloom to be a bigger jackass than I have already claimed he is. But hey Cordero could turn the corner any minute!!!
hahahaha
FPG – With the Yankee win
Through Sept 16th –
NYY 83-64
TOR 82-64,
BOS 83-65
Whichever team sweeps jumps to WC 1
9/17 – TOR vs MIN, NYY vs CLE, BOS vs BAL .
9/18 – TOR vs MIN, NYY vs CLE, BOS vs BAL
9/19 – TOR vs MIN, NYY vs CLE, BOS vs BAL
Chance for BOS to gain on TOR but should lose ground to NYY for the moment
9/20 – TOR @ TB, NYY vs TEX, BOS No Game
9/21 – TOR @ TB, NYY vs TEX, BOS vs NYM
9/22 – TOR @ TB, NYY vs TEX, BOS vs NYM
Must win for TOR on the 23rd. Then BOS/NYY series winner takes lead or tie with TOR.
9/23 – TOR @ MIN, NYY No Game, BOS No Game
9/24 – TOR @ MIN, NYY @ BOS, BOS vs NYY
9/25 – TOR @ MIN, NYY @ BOS, BOS vs NYY
9/26 – TOR @ MIN, NYY @ BOS, BOS vs NYY
9/27 – TOR No Game, NYY No Game, BOS No Game
TOR/NYY series gives BOS a chance to jump into WC #1
9/28 – TOR vs NYY, NYY @ TOR, BOS @ BAL
9/29 – TOR vs NYY, NYY @ TOR, BOS @ BAL
9/30 – TOR vs NYY, NYY @ TOR, BOS @ BAL
BOS must win 2 or more over WAS to keep with TOR.
NYY must beat TB if they aren’t out of the running at this point.
10/1 – TOR vs BAL, NYY vs TB, BOS @ WAS
10/2 – TOR vs BAL, NYY vs TB, BOS @ WAS
10/3 – TOR vs BAL, NYY vs TB, BOS @ WAS
The key to everything is whether NYY are the team after the trade deadline or the more recent version of the team. Stick a fork in them if they are the recent version. Boone, like Cora is such a crap manager it’s hard to comprehend how he can’t win with the talent he has. The team has looked uninspired the entire season except right after they got Rizzo and Gallo. The chemistry of that team is messed up terribly. Boone is not the right guy for the job and hasn’t been. He should go back to the booth and maybe they could hire Cora and kill two birds with one stone!!! And to finish my momentary dream they fire Cashman and hire Bloom!!! Dang it, I just woke up.
Holy crap I just watched Quick Pitch and everything that looked set before watching the football game changed. The Yankees lost!! So they are behind BOS and TOR. Philadelphia scored about a dozen runs!! And the Astros scored a bunch of runs.
And Washington beat the Giants to start the fantasy football week off well.
My bad for assuming NYY would hang on to their 9th inning lead!!! hahaha WOW. Boone should be fired tonight!!!
We had an event after work, so I didn’t track the game. I assume there was a rain delay, because when I got home, it was still in the 9th, at maybe 8:00. Boone might be a bad manager, but he was right when he said the problem was that the Yankees weren’t adding on, after the 2-0. No matter how bad the opponent is, anyone can win a close game.
And with that Yankee result, my new projections:
TOR 92.5
BRS 91.8
NYY 90.3
SEA 87.1
OAK 86.9
Show your work. Anyone can make up numbers and pretend there is a formula behind it by putting a decimal place in the GUESS.
Show the exact formula so we can retroactively re-calculate the 2021 season and prior seasons to show there is no validity to your WAGS.
See I could pretend to have a method and simply say my formula gives me TOR 91.8, BOS 90.7 and NYY 89.6. Without explaining the method they are just numbers. I showed you exactly how I calculate the predictions why can’t you ? The answer is simple. Because there is no method just fake numbers that are your guesses. The decimal is a con man’s approach to selling it. BUSTED!!!
The prediction for Boston’s 90.7 is pretty simple I have 91.8 currently). It was identical to your prediction of 88, except for the fact that you left off the BA and NYM games off of Boston’s win column. But if you want the backup:
BAL 4.0
NYM 1.1
NYY 1.7
WSN 2.0
Current win total 83
Total 91.8
This late in the season, we are talking about decimal places. If you disagree, kindly feel free to post the differences. I have no idea what you’re looking for, but unless I made a pure mathematical blunder, it won’t be there. Maybe FPG likes 3.8 wins against BA, and maybe Dorothy will like 4.2, but I think it is impossible to have a material difference.
Joe, do your projections take into account pitching matchups?
Not this far out. My assumption would be that, all things being equal, if you have 15 games left, everyone gets 5 starts.
And I am also not sure it makes a material impact. For example, I predicted 4-6 from Baltimore. I assume, without pen and paper, that it is more like 2.2 at home and 1.8 at Baltimore.
But even looking at the game odds on CBS for the next two games, we are about 3-1 in each game (too high imo). Even if we are 3-1 in all three games, that still only projects to 2.25 wins out of the three..
Just for fun, the record of Eovaldi, Sale and ERod, our three ‘aces’, is 24-16, while Pivetta, Richards & Perez are 23-22. During the regular season, aces tend to be overrated, while the importance of the #4-5-6 guys tend to be underrated. Of course, that completely flips in the playoffs when your 5-6 SPs might not even make the roster.
The reason I ask, the Orioles starting pitcher matchups heavily favor the Red Sox for the remainder of the season.
We really, really lucked out because despite the six remaining games against them, we will not see their two best pitchers at all.
Check this out:
Sept 15 – Yanks face Means 3.41 ERA (he gave up only 2 ER in 5 2/3 IP)
Sept 16 – Yanks face Ellis 2.39 ERA (he gave up only 2 ER in 4 2/3 IP)
Sept 17 – Sox face Akin 6.83 ERA
Sept 18 – Sox face Lowther 9.92 ERA
Sep 19 – Sox face Wells 4.17 ERA
Sept 28 – Sox face Akin 6.83 ERA
Sept 29 – Sox face Lowther 9.92 ERA
Sept 30 – Sox face Wells 4.17 ERA
Oct 01 – Jays face Means 3.41 ERA
Oct 02 – Jays face Ellis 2.39 ERA
Oct 03 – Jays face Akin 6.83 ERA
We should be able to win at least 5 of the 6 games against the O’s, and the Jays could easily lose the first two games of their final series.
It’s nice when it works out, but sometimes it goes the other way. Against the WS, we faced Rodon (2.38), Cease (4.22) and Lynn (2.50), It all evens out in the long run.
Does anyone think Brennan is gonna come here, see there’s 80 comments, and mistakenly think the discussions have been about him.
As I’ve always said, these threads show the enduring popularity of the RS. No one but RS fans line up at the Tobin every time we pick up some minor league depth. I mean, in every one of these threads, you are pretty much guaranteed ten posts by KD that this is the absolutely the worst pickup in the history of baseball.
JB – Pound sand..
It’s finally official, Sale starting tonight.
I want to spend the next 14 games hammering little tiny nails into the Yankees coffin. A possible 4 more starts from Sale would be a nice nail.
So we’ve got Sale, Pivetta, Evo this weekend in that order, and ERod on Tuesday against the Mets..
That means a 5th starter, hopefully Houck and NOT Perez, starting Wednesday against the Mets..
I’m assuming it will be Sale, Evo, ERod in that order against the Yanks.