The Rays are calling up top outfield prospect Josh Lowe for his Major League debut, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan (Twitter thread). Passan adds that it might not be a long-term stay for Lowe in his first big league call-up, Rays fans will apparently still get a look at yet another well-regarded farmhand late in the ’21 season. Lowe is already on the 40-man roster, so the Rays only need to make room on the active roster to accommodate him.
Lowe, 23, was the No. 13 overall pick in the 2016 draft and has ridden a breakout season in Triple-A to a widely regarded status as one of baseball’s 100 best prospects. He’s posted a .282/.369/.540 batting line (good for a 138 wRC+) while connecting on 21 home runs, 24 doubles and two triples. He’s also gone a perfect 24-for-24 in stolen-base attempts on the season. It’s been a strong follow-up to Lowe’s quality showing at the Double-A level in 2019, when he hit .252/.341/.443 (128 wRC+) in a very pitcher-friendly setting. He and his older brother, Nate, were both in the Rays’ system before the team traded the latter to the Rangers this past offseason.
Keith Law of The Athletic ranked the younger Lowe as baseball’s No. 31 overall prospect on his July 22nd list, calling him a “plus center fielder with patience and power.” Lowe lands No. 40 overall on Eric Longenhagen’s current rankings at FanGraphs, and he was named the No. 76 and No. 89 prospect in baseball on the respective midseason rankings at MLB.com and Baseball America. There are concerns about Lowe’s strikeout tendencies — he’s fanned at a 26.6 percent clip in his minor league career and has matched that level at Triple-A in 2021 — but he also draws walks at a strong clip (12.4 percent this year).
Tampa Bay’s outfield is largely set at the moment with Austin Meadows, Kevin Kiermaier and Randy Arozarena as the go-to options and both Manuel Margot and Jordan Luplow as right-handed options off the bench. Lowe would bring another left-handed-hitting option to the mix, joining Meadows and Kiermaier — the former coming off his worst month of the season at the plate and the latter coming off his best. Lowe seems likely to be just one of a couple moves, as the Rays could also use some additional infield depth on the bench at the moment.
There may not be a long-term opportunity for Lowe in the outfield at the moment, but it seems likely that he’ll have such an opportunity before too long. How they’ll go about facilitating that remains to be seen, but Kiermaier’s name has come up in trade rumblings for years. The 2022 season will be the final guaranteed season of his six-year, $53.5MM contract in Tampa Bay. Meanwhile, both Margot and Meadows will be up for arbitration raises this offseason. Meadows will enter his first of three arb seasons in 2022, while Margot will be owed a final raise on his current $3.4MM salary before reaching free agency in the 2022-23 offseason. A trade isn’t a foregone conclusion, of course. Designated hitter Nelson Cruz is a free agent at season’s end, and his departure could open the door for Meadows to slide back into a primary designated hitter role, further opening some outfield reps for Lowe (and others).
However it shakes out, the Rays are again on the cusp of bringing yet another high-end talent to the big leagues — one who’ll potentially give the team another cost-effective player to build around as some of the current mainstays on the roster inch closer to free agency or arbitration salaries that ownership deems untenable. There’s always some degree of year-to-year churn on the Rays’ roster, but the consistent development of quality young talent like Lowe has made it sustainable for years now.
From a service-time standpoint, Lowe is already controllable through at least the 2027 season. Depending on how much time he spends in the Majors this year and how the team handles him early in the 2022 season, that could be pushed back to 2028. Under the current system, Lowe would’ve needed to spend 15 days in the minors next year to push that free-agent trajectory back to 2028. That number would grow by one for every day Lowe spends on the MLB roster between now and season’s end. Of course, we don’t know for certain what the arbitration system and service will look like moving forward. Both are hot-button issues in ongoing collective bargaining talks between Major League Baseball and the Players Association, and it’d come as little surprise to see some notable overhaul the current service-time/arbitration structure.
Entire team gathered together to say, ” Hi LOWE” !!
Is it pronounced Lowe like Brandon, or Lowe like Nate?
He’s Nate’s little brother.
Oh cool!
Why did the rays never have Derek Lowe, they seem to love the name…
But he pronounces it like Brandon just to screw with Nate’s head.
And their dad is Rob.
Apparently Nate’s mother sent a message to the Rangers broadcasters telling them that they should be announcing his name as his given name, Nathaniel, not Nate. So there you have it……an informational tidbit
Is that why they say Nathaniel, which is a long name fire broadcast
Finally. Now Kevin Kiermaier and his “all defense” and “Little League hitting abilities” can be traded to a JV team. Only problem is he makes too much money.
The Rays miscalculated on that contract. His hitting tanked and they weren’t able to unload him.
I agree about kk’s hiting and trading him. but your attemt to downplay his defense is ignorant, he is the best center fielder this century (yes i know the century is still young)
It’s amazing to see how a truly horrible 3B worked himself into an above average CF, like Lowe has. He’ll be that above average defender even in the cursed Dome.
They’ll likely either trade or non-tender Margot , and try for the 4th consecutive year to trade KK; it might work; lots of CF-needy good teams out there. With Lowe and Brujan (who really needs to be off the dirt), the Rays OF is in pretty good shape moving forward.
Margot won’t be non-tendered. He’s only 26, a plus defender, and even with an arbitration raise he won’t cost much more than $5M. He’s prime trade material. They’d find a good market, beginning with the Mets who could actually use a plus-defensive CFer.
I’d guess he’s due for more like $6M in arb (80% of ~$7.5M) if he closes out the year like he’s been playing. Maybe he’ll have trade value because the OF free agent market isn’t super strong this year, but a nontender wouldn’t surprise me at all. This is also the team that DFAed Corey Dickerson, didn’t pick up the option on Morton and nontendered Cron and LoMo, all of whom did just as well or better on the open market than if they had tendered. The latter two aren’t necessarily instructive due to lack of positional value, but this isn’t a front office that tenders if they think there’s a chance they’ll be stuck with someone they don’t really want who’s making a pretty penny. There’s also value in having that open roster spot, since the Rays have a ton of pitching on the 60-day DL they’ll need to open spots for as soon as the offseason begins.
Uncertainty about how the arb system will work under the next CBA also increases the chances he simply gets nontendered IMO.
Either KK or Margot will be gone soon. The Rays aren’t going to spend that kind of money in the outfield with Lowe coming up.
Both will be gone. Randy,meadows,lowe,ludlow and phillips are your outfielddrs next year with one filling the DH. I also think Choi and wendell will be gone with wells and bruhan taking their roster spots. With those 4 gone you replace appx 25 million for less then 5 million. Not a huge loss talent wise. (I will miss wendle though) maybe stew will spend some of that on a vet #3 starter
Lowe won’t be an everyday player until a couple months into the season unless something changes in the CBA. I also doubt the Rays are rushing to trade KK for a negative return by including decent prospects with him. I suspect KK makes it to mid season before the team pulls a Longoria-esque deal where they can say they didn’t just waive him. Wendle is a good bet to be traded, and Cash naming him to the ASG probably sealed the deal. Choi is borderline. His injury issues this year might make him cheap enough to keep, and he’s been good when he played (and a surprisingly good defensive 1B given his build). Kitteridge is another who might be on the block, especially if he winds up winning the Mariano Rivera award.
Or just trade Lowe. C’mon, the Mets will give you Robinson Cano for him. That’s a big name! /s
I’d love to have a young, legit CF in NY, but they’re a rare breed in today’s MLB.
Maybe he can be Bryan Reynolds type.
Billy bean farhan Zaidi, , Andrew Friedman, Erik neander, chaim bloom ! What do they have in common I don’t know I guess moneyball an the idea of thinning big picture and leaving no stone unturned , so I suppose by that measure any team with a executive opening like Mets , Rockies soon the be diamondbacks and possibly cardinals should pluck from that tree ! David forst seems like the next from that Cloth to do his thing ! Even if beane is deferring to him more an more sell him and spending for talent that he couldn’t pretend to spend with athletics
In English?
Embrace moneyball ! Should have just said that from the start ! Or go for theoss guys who just lust for stars who just star chase and then brag to insiders about how little they felt they gave up for said player !
Still can’t believe how little Padres gave up for Adam Frazier
And 3 of those guys have worked for the rays
Friedman and Moneyball in the same breath?
Yes the incorporate big market spending into the moneyball principles! To be real even when they spend big it’s for retention then splurging into the free agent market ! Before Bauer they didn’t sign any big money outside free agents they will probably be less inclined to do so now
A new Lowe.
This team organization is absolutely insane. And gonna be very hard to beat the next 3-4 years
Ya they really are positionally bizarrely talented; guys like Greg Jones don’t even get thought of by many. They’re a little pitching short, but you can’t have everything.
Their big problem will be if the new CBA cuts into Revenue Sharing, which I strongly suspect it will. That’s going to necessitate a very active off season, even including the Joey Wendle-s of the world; and as Buck S. says, there isn’t a manager in all of MLB that wouldn’t want Joey Wendle; a REAL multi-position guy who does something every day to win a ballgame. Neander et al will have to be especially creative.
The betting’s pretty good that they will be.