4:10 pm: Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports that the value of Seager’s option has actually escalated all the way to the maximum $20MM figure. According to Divish, Seager needs 37 more plate appearances through the end of the regular season to push the value of the buyout from $1.5MM to $2MM. With 22 games remaining on the schedule, Seattle’s regular third baseman shouldn’t have much difficulty reaching that mark.
9:25 am: Kyle Seager has been a Mariner since the club selected him with the 82nd overall draft pick back in 2009, but the Mariners will soon face a decision on the former All-Star who’s held down the hot corner at T-Mobile Park/Safeco Field for the past decade.
Seager is in the final guaranteed season of a seven-year, $100MM contract extension signed back in December 2014, but that contract holds a club option for the 2022 season. While the option was originally valued at $15MM, Seager’s extension included escalators that could boost the option value up to $20MM and trigger a buyout of as much as $3MM (as MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reported at the time of the deal). Seager hasn’t reached the full weight of those escalators, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic now reports that he’s boosted that option value up to $19MM and hit enough of the escalators to tack on a buyout in the $1.5MM to $2MM range.
Triggering the buyout means that regardless of the Mariners’ decision, Seager will walk away from the deal with at least $101.5MM to $102MM in guaranteed money. For the Mariners, what was previously a net $15MM decision is now a net decision in the $17MM to $17.5MM range.
Seager, 34 in November, has become an increasingly difficult player to value. His .213 batting average and .290 on-base percentage are both obvious eyesores, but he’s also slugging .455 and has clubbed a career-high 34 home runs in 2021 with a few weeks of games yet to play. His 23.7 percent strikeout rate is a career-high, but the league-average strikeout rate has soared in recent years; he’s only one percent north of the 22.7 average for non-pitchers.
Seager has also had at least some degree of poor fortune on balls in play, although perhaps not as much as his career-low .218 BABIP would suggest upon first glance. Seager’s career .272 average on balls in play is already lower than that of the league average (about .300), so we can’t simply assume there will be positive regression all the way up to the league norm.
This version of Seager is naturally going to be prone to a low BABIP due to his pull-happy (45.5 percent) and thus shift-prone approach, a huge 51.6 percent fly-ball rate (including a 13.6 percent infield-fly rate) and his decreasing speed. Statcast pegs Seager’s “expected” batting average at .225, which would be enough to narrowly push his OBP into the .300s assuming the rest of his profile remained the same. Seager, like so many other players in the league, has taken some steps toward a three-true-outcomes style at plate — albeit not to the same dramatic extent as three-true-outcome kings like Joey Gallo or Miguel Sano.
On the defensive side of things, Seager remains a solid option at third base. Both Ultimate Zone Rating (4.0) and Outs Above Average (5) grade him as an above-average defender. Defensive Runs Saved has him at minus-4 this season, but Seager has a long track record of quality DRS marks. His 13 errors have him on pace to finish right around his full-season totals from 2017-19. He’s not Matt Chapman or Nolan Arenado at third base, but most clubs would likely consider him anywhere from serviceable to above-average, which has value in its own right.
The Mariners, at least to some extent, will also have to take into account Seager’s status as a foundational piece for the past decade. Back in February, now-former Mariners president Kevin Mather made a buyout of Seager’s option sound like a fait accompli, indicating that the 2021 campaign would likely be his last as a Mariner. Mather, of course, is no longer with the club and Seager has gone on to belt a career-best 34 dingers — albeit with concerning declines in OBP and average, as previously highlighted. FanGraphs values Seager at 2.6 wins above replacement, putting him on pace to finish as a 2.9-WAR or better player for the ninth time in his past 10 full seasons (i.e., excluding 2020).
The Mariners could simply buy Seager out and slide Abraham Toro (and, on occasion, Ty France) over to third base in 2022. However, both players are capable of playing other positions. Toro has been lined up primarily at second base since being acquired from Houston, and France is capable at both second and first (with more than enough bat to simply DH, as well).
Ultimately, a net price in the $17MM range seems steep for Seager, but the Mariners also only have $19MM in guaranteed salary on the books next season, with a fairly light arbitration class to boot. Combine that with Seager’s career-best power output, solid glovework and legacy status in Seattle — and it’s enough to at least make this a closer decision for the front office than most would expect.
He gone
$20MM for a guy that hardly gets on base seems an awful lot.
Seager’s production played himself out of a reasonable option at $15M. Now its $19-20M? Oops
We have 2 NL comments here and many more below. How many games have you watched him play? Then a few Angel fans that are mad because Dipoto has turned this team around and they mostly refuse to blame Arty for their problems. Most of you guys East if the Rockies have seen him play a few times which means you are looking at stats. If you are honest D metrics have improved a lot but still have a ways to go. It is hard to quantify if a player can stick his glove out and catch a 105 mph line drive that whistles by his ear. Or take a quick step snag a ball backhanded and throw to first on his knees turning around. How many guys would get to the ball make the throw etc.
This team is real young there is a good chance Haniger is gone this off season. He has had a season to prove it wasn’t luck before the injury. Amazing how getting smacked in the walnuts can lose you so much money. Seager will be the anchor in the clubhouse. A guy they can go to and lean on for help. With all the flexibility they have why not keep him. They would have White France Toro JP and Seager with Moore being the SU guy. White may come up a month or so depends on how ST goes for him. Yes he will play over France at first he has the long term contract and a GG to his favor. I am a long term Ms fan and believe Seager is back because they have the money and flexibility to bring him back.
You want to know how to get fired as a GM, take away the stability of knowing his position everyday from your most valuable player so you can sneak a no-bat, gold-glove winner in at first base. I am pretty certain you are Evan White at this point..
France’s D isn’t far enough White’s for White to replace him with his lack of a bat. France is more of a whole player than White and has been a Gold Glove worthy 1B in his time there.
White needs to prove he can hit at least .235 before you even start thinking of taking France off of 1B.
@compassrose
I have watched Seager play in person this year probably more than you (which is 3 btw). At times he looks disinterested and aloof, playing out the last year of a very long, lucrative contract. I watched him hold up the game while he directed where he wanted a foul ball he tossed to go. Everyone… infielders, the pitcher, umpires, and batter were looking at him like WTF are you doing. Its not exactly like the M’s are 30 games out – theyre right in the middle of a playoff race.
Long time M’s fan here. Bring him back. He’s clutch. He’s class. He’s hilarious. He makes some spectacular plays. He’s a rock. Would love to see him with us as we ascend to playoff status under the masterful job of Jerry Dipoto.
This is nonsense. I’ve been to way more than 3 games this year, and no one in baseball looks at Kyle Seager like “wtf.” Your bias is showing.
99 RBIs. Where would we be without him this season? .318 RISP & .444 w bases loaded (Rotowire). Should we resign him for $$$$$? Personally I do not think so. I’ve also been to more than 3 games this year & only see the man who works his tail off
Josh Donaldson got 23 Million as a 33 3rd basemen coming off a season where he was injured for most of it and batted 246 through 50 games, I think Seager gets 20 Million here,
JD had a lot better track record and higher ceiling. M’s should decline this option and move on
@formerly
He signed that deal after 2019 when he had an OPS over 900. He didn’t get signed last year.
He’s talking about Donaldson 2018 season.
If he ‘walks’ and his option is not picked up, he will at most get an offer of $12M.
Would you give Patrick Wisdom more than 20 million a season? No? Enough said.
Even so he still had a better OPS and way better glove at third base. Plus Donaldson was considered a super star not long before then.
They could decline it and still resign him for less. If a contender is willing to pay him 17-18m a year for more than one year at 34 then you just walk away. Declining is the easy call. You can always go back and sign him for virtually the same amount if you don’t like your other options at 3B.
He will *easily* get more than that. I just don’t think it will be from the Mariners.
Declining the option and negotiate a lower salary for 1-2 years could work for both sides.
Why would he do that?
If they decline the offer he should get to FA and see what he can get. No reason to limit your market at that point
He can do both of those things. He can go to FA and realize the market ACCURATELY doesn’t value him at $20M a year and the Mariners can circle back on a multi year deal at a lower price.
Or we can just be smart and pay Abraham Toro league minimum.
Bingo. It’s almost as if you’ve paid attention to how teams operate in 2021.
He will easily get $$$$ as a FA. Don’t think he fits future Mariners plans though. Wish him the best, he’s had a good season. Would we be where we are without his 99 RBIs? Ah, no
I keep thinking the Mariners might go after Corey this off season, if that’s the case Kyle might re work his contract to stay, maybe I’m just being a bit to romantic about it but Corey would surely help add to their team
And by “re work” do you mean ask Corey to pay for Kyle?
Corey doesnt fit in anywhere in our infield. Hes long said he doesnt want to move from SS and not sure if they could wrangle our infield around with who we currently have.
It would make a great storyline though and i mean as a fan id love to see it happen but imo its one of the least likely to happen.
Corey can and should start over Crawford if he were to come to Seattle. But considering Kyle’s likely poor views of the organization, it’s doubtful Corey signs here.
Corey won’t come cheap (assuming the Dodgers bid him farewell – if they want him the Mariners can’t compete). Look for Corey to get a long term contract of no less than 20 M per. Mariners won’t pay him that much. And he is a below average fielder in my opinion.
what do you suggest doing with Crawford?
Sounds like they can buy him out and offer him like 1 year and 10 million and save 7 million. That seems like the most likely scenario given how current front offices work.
I read somewhere a short while back that he was projected to be at 11-14 million value, same BA and power numbers.
He will get more than that as a FA
In the future I would love to see this guy retire on the same team as his brother Corey Seater.
Thing is, I think in a different scenario where the contract was expiring with no option, with the season he is having he would get the Qualifying Offer and would probably accept it.
His option is basically the same value as the Qualifying Offer.
A lot of veterans in his position with his kind of numbers have been given similar 1-year deals of equivalent value in previous years, when adjusted for inflation.
Assuming he ends the season with around a 2.45 WAR and around 37-40 HR’s and 105 RBI, which is what he is pacing for, tons of guys would get a 1 year/$18M deal from that performance, which is the equivalent cost of the option decision for the Mariners.
He’s earned it. I’ve never understood why everybody argues to not pay guys, not pick up options in favor of prospects etc. if a player is still producing. I also understand why people get hesitant when an aging player has a career year and there’s an assumption that it might be a last hurrah, so paying them even more money would be the wrong move- like Brett Gardner from 2019….
Anyway, I think Seager is a Seattle mainstay. I think they would have plenty of flexibility to give AB’s to a potential prospect replacement for him in 2022 even with the option picked up and with guys like Cano shipped off and losing all that salary commitment and no major free agent signings in the wake of all that, 1 year of Kyle Seager at $20M when he’s already been making an AAV of $19M the last few seasons. one more year at $20M seems very reasonable. It’s not 2 or 3 or 4 years. It’s 1 year. He’s earned it. I’m repeating myself at this point, but at this point since I am repeating myself- He’s earned it.
You don’t understand why teams aren’t paying older declining players in favour of younger, cheaper and usually better players? Mariners could use that 19 million far better than paying Seager 19 million.
Kyle Seager is one of the PRIMARY reasons the M’s are in the playoff hunt. Dipoto would be foolish (and I believe he is) to jettison a Mariner legend because he doesn’t want to pay a productive player. The M’s have TONS of money to spend this offseason even if they pay Seager.
Seager is also coming off a career year at 34 years old. You’re comment sounds like he’s 40 and been declining for years. Wrong comment for the wrong player.
If Kyle Seager is a Mariner legend, Mariner fans should raise their standards. He’s an older version of Miguel Sano @ 3B. How much would you pay for that? Passable in the field, and hits an occasional dinger is not worth QA money. At his age, do you really expect him to be better next year? Pedro Feliz just got released for being almost that good.
Gold Glove defense is not just “passable.’ 34 plus HR’s is not just an ‘occasional dinger.’ Seager is amongst league leaders while hitting with runners in scoring position. He is the definition of clutch. He will likely end the season with nearly 40 HR’s, if not more, and 100 plus RBI’s and will be in the discussion for another Gold Glove. The is a far above league average player that has been doing consistently for over 10 years. His leadership is unquestioned. Mariners fan understand the immense value of Kyle Seager.
Oof, an OPS south of .750 is a career year? No thanks, take off your homer blinders
He’s in the top 5 All-time Mariner records for WAR, HR, RBI, R, H, 2Bs, Total Bases… His name is amongst Griffey, Ichiro, Edgar, and ARod in those categories. To say M’s fans need to raise their standards shows very little awareness for Seager’s career.
Mariners history is not that long. Seager has been a long time player, and if you want to keep him around for sentimental reasons, I get that. Just like the Angels cut Pujols when they had a better player available, the Mariners should see if better options are available. Look for a Molina type contract if he wants to stay. Giving him mega dollars for even a one year contract would be foolish, because he won’t get it on the FA market.
Seager is top 5 in Mariners histtory in a lot of stats; most notably Games, ABs, Runs, Hits, Doubles, HR, RBI, and BBs,
He is 100% a franchise legend; and over 300 career HR and 34 (and counting) this year is more than “occasional”.
Yes, this is absolutely one of Seager’s best seasons. He is hitting .317 and OPSing 1.076 with RISP. He has won several games with his bat alone this season, including the 2-Homer, 6 RBI game on Saturday.
Glancing at some fantasy stats and surmising a players value is silly.
The club has been around for almost 45 years and Seager has been around for roughly a quarter of that time. His numbers are in franchise top five with MULTIPLE Hall of Famers. Dude has earned respect from our fans and has 100% earned his option year being picked up. He’s the best run producer on the team bar none
Seager is 34 years old… Pujols is somewhere between 41-46.
For reference, when Pujols was 35, he hit 40 HRs.
Good lord you people live in a alternative universe. It’s no wonder you people are shocked and outraged when players are traded for 20 cents on the dollar (in your own heads) lol
People aren’t looking at this as rationally as they might think.
The clutch hitting has been superb, but these are career-high clutch stats and some regression should be anticipated. Imagine that happening with a further decline to what is already a bad seasonal batting line. That’s not going to project well and this is a team trying to establish an identity as they open their window for contention.
Seager isn’t going to be a part of the core. Making a clean break now is probably best for both parties as Seattle can invest that money in a player who can be a part of their core. He could go to a contender that could use him as a compliment, rather than a foundation piece. Being a role player might even extend his career a few more years.
It’s highly unlikely Seattle keeps him. Players don’t get paid for what they’ve done, they get paid for what they’re expected to do. If he were to stay, I don’t think he would even be guaranteed a starting role.
Cue the you-don’t-know-anything-rhetoric.
Indeed regression may be in store as Kyle Seager’s on-percentage could regress to his .322 career norm (or his .355 OBP in 2020) just as Seager rebounded from a .273 OBP in his dismal 2018 season.
Part of the appeal of Seager’s option is that the commitment is for only one year. An upgrade on the free agent market would likely require a multiple-year contract.
The question is whether the Mariners will pay a net $18 million for one year of a veteran who in 304 games since the start of the 2019 season has posted 7.0 fWAR, valued at $56.3 million.
I like the take on the option price being very similar to the QO. Great way of thinking about it.
I’d assume, under the QO scenario, that Seager would jump all over it. That one year at $19 million would be higher than he would expect to make in free agency and staying home is a bonus (especially with no income tax in WA).
It would be a slight overpay IMO but I’m fine with overpaying legacy players a bit. When fans have a connection, the team has a connection, and there’s no obvious replacement. Give the long time franchise player a little extra dough.
There are TWO obvious replacements for Seager in Toro and France, but I’m good with giving Kyle one more year.
As he approaches his 34th birthday in November Kyle Seager might turn down the hypothetical qualifying offer in hopes of landing a three-year contract in the $30 million to $36 million range.
The comps of Josh Donaldson, Justin Turner, Anthony Rendon and Manny Machado would certainly support that goal.
Josh Donaldson got 23 Million as a 33 3rd basemen coming off a season where he was injured for most of it and batted 246 through 50 games, I think Seager gets 20 Million here,
Don’t copy paste your comments
And it’s not even like he signed that contract last year. JD was coming off a great year when he signed that deal. Seager is coming off an okayish season with an obp below 300. Also batting average should not be the only stat you use to compare a player’s worth. JD has always had a decent on base percentage.
Old and bad and expensive
He ain’t bad Brother.
Good defense with power and run production is never bad. It may not be great but it’s far from bad.
Good enough to lead the team in RBI and HR, though. He’s the reason they’re still in the playoff race.
Well, maybe the bullpen, Toro, France, Haniger, and J.P. also, to name just a few key contributors.
Not that much of an issue. Decline the option, pay the buyout, re-sign him for a lower price. If he ends up not wanting to return, he’s not someone who’s irreplaceable
Buy out. Could return at a lower rate.
He’s an Astro killer, 7 dingers against the AL West leader. I would think that would have some value
Rework deal to where maybe that $17 million is over two years? Then sign his brother and another bat. They can even afford to shop in the top tier pitching market if they want to. Mariners are in a great position heading in to the offseason.
If Seager doesn’t return to the Mariners I wouldn’t mind the Yankees making a run at him. He could take on the role that Odor has now. It also wouldn’t hurt to sign his brother
Unlike with Odor, the Yankees would actually have to pay for Seager with their own money
Just like every other contender except the Dodgers, including your Red Sox, the Yankees chose to stay under the luxury tax this year. They have a ton of money to spend this offseason and you’re lying to yourself if you think they won’t
Yeah, they will spend, but more wisely than that. Paying top dollar for a bench player is a sign of ineptitude. I’d also be wary of any player willing to take starter money to sit bench. Would seem like he doesn’t really want to be in the lineup.
Giving his age and overall good not great play, I don’t think Seager will cost that much. A short term deal with an AAV in the $12-$15 mil range probably gets it done. He would probably still get a lot of playing time even in a utility role with the Yankees. LeMahieu signed a similar deal with the Yankees 3 years ago and wound up becoming an everyday player. Also Odor has played regularly this year and in this hypothetical situation Seager would be taking his role
0% chance they pick up that option lol
It’s not a no-brainer, and I don’t always agree with those who say “there are no bad 1-year deals”, but considering the Mariners have many tens of millions available to spend (so keeping Seager has no effect on filling other needs) it seems smart to pick up the option.
This does not qualify as one of those “no bad one year deals”.
A bad one year contract is not about money, but using roster spots . Regarding Seager, 20 million is so far beyond market value it’s a bad one year contract. In the open market, he will not come close to that kind of offer.
In 304 games since the start of the 2019 season Kyle Seager has posted 7.0 fWAR, valued at $56.3 million.
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&…
It’s not as if Kyle Seager is Anthony Rendon.
And even if they don’t open up the checkbook like everyone is expecting; they should be dramatically better next year due to Lewis (theoretically) being healthy, Kelenic settling in, and Toro being at 2B all year instead of what they got from a rotating door throughout the first half.
Gilbert will have experience and an offseason working under instruction from the MLB staff, Giles and Munoz will be back from TJ, and White’s bat won’t be there to hurt us with France seemingly having taken over at 1B.
If THIS Mariners club was on the field at the start of the year? Probably looking at somewhere near 5 extra wins as a starting point.
Seager has def been playing like hes trying out for another team. I do expect the Mariners to offer him a contract as a good faith gesture and as Seager has been a cornerstone of the Ms for years, but ultimately I see them letting him go in free agency.
A 37 WAR player in his 10+ years and some of you say he’s not good?
Nobody is saying he hasn’t had a good career. People are saying he won’t be good in 2022, at least not nearly worth $20 mil. Nice strawman though
Fans don’t seem to understand how to win in the future at all it’s hilarious.
Re-sign him, Sign Corey as a FA, and get their uncle Bob to sign the national anthem.
Bob’s busy working on his night moves…
Corey is a clean-shaven, left-handed Scott Boras client. He’ll be a Yankee.
Interesting player. His slash with RISP this year is .317/.385/.691 Combine that with good defense and there are definitely way worse players you could have at 3B.
No one is saying he is the worst. Simply dismissing the notion he would be worth the value of a qualifying offer equivalent. A little more and you could be bidding for Bryant.
They don’t need Bryant or his long term deal; they need a 1 or 2 year stopgap until Noelvi Marte is ready; and a combination of Seager and Toro over than time should be more than good enough to keep them competitive.
I have a basic question about the competitive balance tax payroll calculations. How are options, buyouts, bonuses, and performance escalators calculated into the average annual value of a contract? I know that teams use these to manipulate their CBT payroll but can’t find any articles that explain exactly how. Do bonuses in one season of a contract lead to recalculation of he CBT payroll in past and future years on just apply to that season? If only guaranteed money gets divided over the years, doesn’t it make it easy to “hide” salary.
I believe it works this way. Only the guaranteed amount of the option can be assigned to the original contract. So if his option had a guaranteed $1.5M buyout, that $1.5M was spread equally across his 7/$100M contract so for CBT purposes, it was a 7/$101.5M contract. If he hits escalators in the last year of his deal to increase his option buyout amount (or if his salary had in season escalators in it) that money would be applied to the current season once they are achieved. So if he increases his option buyout to $2.5M this year, they will add another $1M to the CBT calculation for 2021. They don’t calculate the final CBT amounts until the end of the league year (Oct) so they can account for any escalators reached this year and pro-rate the salaries of any new players acquired via trade or free agency during the season as well.
MLB tends not to use bonuses (they might be deemed “illegal”) but they will front load contracts to make players easier to trade towards the end of the deal, but the total value of the contract is spread equally across the contract term regardless of what each year’s salary is or if there is an actual bonus to be paid.
A great example is the Liam Hendrix deal. He signed a 3 year, $51M contract, with a $0 option for year 4. For CBT purposes, this becomes a 4 year/$51M deal (about $13M/yr for 4 years). If they were to trade Hendrix at the beginning of year 4, the acquiring club would owe him $0 in salary but would be on the hook for the ~$13M CBT hit for year 4.
Seager’s AAV is in the mid $14M range so from an accounting view picking up his option isn’t a big deal. Giving him regular rest will allow him to stay fresh. I think the M’s want to keep him around as they enter their window of competitiveness. And it makes sense from a PR perspective to keep him around and hope you get similar power production next year.
For a team with an estimated salary at less than $60 million right now; overpaying Seager by a few million isn’t even a blip on the radar compared to what they SHOULD be able to spend this offseason.
I think ownership forces Dipoto to keep him give his history with the team. Plus the Mariners are likely a 75 win team trying to be an 85 win team next year so the more players and teams they have to negotiate with for talent the less likely they get what they need without being forced to go full Padres. Might he a reason to keep Kikuchi as well. Im not against exercising Seagers option. It’s an overpay but after Kevin Mathers I suspect they’ll flex a little financially to appease the fans. I expect one big overpay on some big name next year as well. I’m guessing a pitcher there. Kikuchis option is trickier because it’s over 4 years and his homeritis hasn’t gone away despite his raw stuff and other peripherals.
They could slide Toro into his spot but guessing they might want to make sure Toro is as legit as he appears before going into next year without a solid option on him for 2B and 3B. And I don’t mean Moore or Padlo. I could see them bringing in someone as a super utility infielder type too to slide over the 2B if Toro slumps or gets hurt.
How can the Mariners “likely be a 75 win team” when they already have 76 wins this year and 22 games left to play? This is, at worst, and 86 win team right now and most likely a 90+ win team based on how they’ve been playing lately. With all the young talent they have, they should be expecting similar results next year, if not a leap forward from their 2021 record.
If they just ran the current otganizational talent base out the way it is I personally wouldn’t project 86 wins. Once they add some talent to fill out the roster sure. I could see a 90 win team, but certainly wouldn’t project it and definitely not before they add anyone. If i had a gun to my head I’d project 78 wins now but think they go into the season better than that. To get to 90 wins as far as a projection they need to add a ton of talent and/or have a lot of success I’m player development. I think they do see some of that but they still have alot of work to do. Also it they put together even an 83 win team on paper that could easily be a 90+ win team but could also be a 90+ loss team. What I was saying Is is suspect they have a lot of work to do to get the team where they want it.
I don’t see any way they exercise Kikuchi’s option(s). He might exercise his option after they turn theirs down, however.
Hes an enigma. If he can tamper the dingers I can totally see a legit #2. If he doesn’t he’s what he’s been which is pretty mediocre for the most part.
Not my money of course, but I wouldn’t gamble $66 million on that happening.
They’re an 85 win team this year with no LF, basically nothing from CF, no DH, nothing from C for three quarters of the season, almost a third of a season of nothing from 1B, and a half season of nothing from 2B. They couldn’t score more than 2 or 3 runs a game for a long time.
Unless the Bullpen implodes, there’s no realistic way they’re worse next year, even if all they do is replace Moore and Bauers. I don’t see the offense being this horrible again.
About that three-true-outcomes situation, it’s interesting to note that while he’s on-pace for a career high in dingers, he’s also on-pace for a career low (on a per AB basis) in doubles. His 107 OPS+ so far this year is clearly better than average, but also, not by all that much.
And it’s slightly below his career OPS+ of 113, BTW.
Mariners aren’t picking that up. They were selling before the deadline. He is good as gone.
What deadline is that?
Sellers? They acquired a starting 2B, a new Closer and a 5th Starter…
The fact that some M fans are calling on them to pickup this option tells me the team has been bad for too long and those fans have lost the plot
He’s top 5 in Mariners history in virtually every meaningful offensive statistic; and leads the team in HR and RBI so far this season. Give him one more year if he wants it.
Bring him back as there is no clearly better option within the system. Toro would work, but then we’d need to find a significant replacement at 2B; and that’s likely more than 1 year/ $20M tops.
His records are the result of longevity. Where are his records in non cumulative stats? How many Mariners hitters happened to have stayed as long as him?
It is not hard to find guys who are what he is at this point in his career and they can be had for a lot less than 20 mil.
A team that hasn’t made the playoffs in two decades can’t afford sentimental contracts
John lives in reality, he speaks the truth.
Remember Mariners brass already said he was over-paid and was most likely in his last season. I’d say it’s safe to say the option won’t be picked up.
That guys is no longer employed by the organisation. In fact, I believe Dipoto now has his job moving forward.
Good that guy doesn’t deserve to be in the organisation.
Buyout.
Love seags. But I probably let him go and thank him for what’s he’s done. Toro is a stud and goes to 3b. I sign whit Merryfield to play 2b. Bring back Nelson Cruz at DH. And sign an ace and another 1-3 starter. This team is already proving they can win with what they’ve got.
Merrifield isn’t an free agent this offseason.
The club is in love with Evan White, defensively I can see why but he is a huge liability at the plate. France will move to 2nd.
I doubt the M’s use the option on either Seager or Kikuchi, though I think Kikuchi would use his one year option to increase his overall value.
No way would I see Seager signing a one or two year deal with Seattle if they decline his option. He was livid when the team traded Graveman and said the organization was running the M’s as if it were a fantasy league with zero regard to the players on the team. IMO he is looking for a new landing spot and is praying the M’s don’t pick up the option, he’s made a lot of money and would take less to be happy.
Totally agree, they burn that bridge as far as him coming back on a short term deal. They’ll have to prove their loyalty if he’s gonna stay. I don’t think he’s happy in Seattle the way Jerry keeps trading all his friends away
Uh oh price goes up and knowing Mariners history this means the Mariners are not gonna pay him
If the Mariners don’t pick up the option then they are lying to us fans about next year bring the year we are going for it. It would cost more on the open market to get a player equal to Kyle. We are nowhere this year without him.
They could probably get a much better player and save money actually but whatever
This offseason Kyle Seager will be the same age Josh Donaldson was in January 2020 when the latter landed a $92 million contract over four years.
Since Donaldson signed that contract, Seager has posted 4.1 fWAR in 198 games while Donaldson has posted 2.5 fWAR in 140 games. Justin Turner, Anthony Rendon and Manny Machado provide free agent comps.
No one is suggesting that Kyle Seager is worth $92 million but one year at under $20 million is reasonable.
Seager’s OBP of .290 this year is concerning coming on the heels of his OBP of .355 in the abbreviated 2020 season and his .321 OBP in his injury-shortened 2019 campaign.
Despite his flaws, a good defender who this season leads all third basemen in home runs has value.
The Seattle Times beat reporter just posted this piece on Kyle Seager:
seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/if-this-is-kyle-s…
What an absolute class act. I wish I had a team full of Kyle Seagers.
I think that would be a reasonable amount of money plus he’s a Tar Heel that’s worth a few million
It’s close. I’d probably buy him out and see if I can’t bring him back for less than $17m.
Not exceedingly relevant but mildly interesting nevertheless:
In his final season with the Seattle Mariners in 2009, third baseman Adrian Beltre posted 2.2 fWAR in 111 games with an on-base percentage of .304 when the MLB mean was .333.
This season Kyle Seager has posted 2.6 fWAR in 138 games with an OBP of .290 when the MLB mean has been .316.
Beltre was three-and-a-half years younger than Seager in their respective seasons.
FanGraphs values Seager’s 2021 fWAR of 2.6 so far this season at $20.8 million.
Die hard Ms fan, sadly .. lol. 20 years of bullish. I love seager and appreciate his work here. But 20 million for a aging 3rd baseman w declining stats is not worth it. Yes he can. Hit a occasional homer here and there but he is honestly a below average player. We have the inhouse candidates to replace him and we can save that 20 million towards getting a solid starter or hell a damned catcher cuz Raleigh is not who I had hoped or thought he would be. But hey we are 2.5 games back w the youngest roster in the league. Big things r coming for the mariners and I’m super exited.
Bro you can’t judge Raleigh after the 30 some games he has played in the MLB thus far… Also, Kyle Seager has a career WAR of 37. That, by definition, is well above the league average player. He’s going to hit approximately 40 HR’s this year with a RISPBA of 300 plus and 100 plus RBI’s.
He will sign with the Rangers this off-season I bet
In a perfect world this offseason the Seattle Mariners would tap into their vast resources to shell out the big bucks for free agent Kris Bryant, a West Coast guy who could serve as an outfield bridge to super prospect Julio Rodriguez before potentially replacing the optioned Kyle Seager at third base in 2023.
Of course, this is not a perfect world. 😉
No need for Bryant and a long deal at 3B moving forward, given that Noelvi Marte likely slides over to 3B from SS, and both Toro and France are capable of playing that position, as well.
They should invest in a guy like Semien, slide Lewis into a DH/LF spot, and pursue a big bat corner OF like Castellanos or Schwarber. Try to trade Haniger and pursue a RF to hold over until J Rod shows up. Haniger would not be in the future for me; he’s fallen off badly as the season drags on. A clear spot needing an upgrade.
Money needs to be spent, but in the right places.
Marcus Semien, who should receive a qualifying offer, has posted 24.8 fWAR in 996 career games.
Kris Bryant, who will not receive a qualifying offer, has posted 31.7 fWAR in 864 games.
Semien, who has posted an OPS+ of at least 100 only twice in nine MLB seasons, is 16 months older than Bryant.
The Gigantes may resign Bryant. Why not?
Schwarber has an option for next season that hopefully he and the Red Sox exercise
There’s no way Seattle is paying $20M for a player who is league average on defense, has an OBP below .300 and will be 34 or 35 next year. Sure he can still hit for power and play decent defense at 3rd base but he’s not worth $20M no matter how much he means to the team or the clubhouse. Pay him his $2M buyout and if they still want him back and he wants to finish his career in Seattle, offer him $10M. He’s not going to get much more than that from any other team. Seattle can spend $20M much more effectively than on Kyle Seager for sure. He’s been a really good player for them but you can’t get sentimental when building your club and overpay for past performance.
I could still see them overpaying but that is really steep so maybe not. Like I could see them being willing to over pay a couple million for PR reasons but not 4 to 5 millon. It’s more like $18 mil when you subtract out the buyout but I think he gets 12-14 for one year not 18.
I just reread TFA and get the sentiment why he’s not staying.
I’m honestly mixed at the idea of exercising the option. His production was kind of middling for the first three months of the season, but they’ve picked up somewhat back to 2019-2020 levels, where he was a patient batter who managed to hit for some power. But there’s always the fear that this kind of production may have him on the precipice of collapse,
Kyle Seager currently has 1,378 hits and 241 home runs.
Regardless of where he plays in 2022, he will likely reach 1,500 hits and 265-270 home runs.
New CBA could play into some teams decisions this off-season. Revenue sharing and luxury tax adjustments might be coming along with a minimum payroll being established for players.
In July Dipoto traded away our 3B prospect we drafted in 2019 Sheldon. 3B has been our weakest link in our minor league system. A month ago I was all in favor of exercising Seager option for 2022 and giving Noelvi Marte the extra year he needs, who could easily take over at 3B post-Seager. But then I had NO CLUE what we were getting in Toro from Houston, and I also really undervalued Ty France’s defense and bat. Julio Rodrigues should be a June callup in 2022. Depending on what report you’re looking at Seattle’s Farm System is ranked #1 or #2. UNBELIEVABLE considering it was #26 just 3 years ago. With only $19M on committed contracts for 2022, we can easily afford Seager 2022 option, but that is not the point. Our rebuild is DONE, and we have ample top prospects at all positions, and we have several with decent 3B defense and bat that can man 3B for us without dishing out $20M for Seager.
The ONLY thing I think Seattle should do this offseason is pony up and offer the most $$$ to several TOR pitchers like Max Scherzer, and I wouldn’t even care if it costs us $40/yr. With guys like Gilbert/Kirby/Hancock/Flexen/Gonzalez/Kikuchi we technically don’t need a Scherzer, but I would still get aggressive on 2 of the top pitchers on the market, because we could always trade them for prospects later once all these top SP prospects find their groove after 1 year or so. Dipoto has proven since he’s been here he knows how to build an amazing BP. Checkout what we have for 2022:
OF: Haniger/Kelenic/Lewis/JuiloRodriguez (BEST OF in MLB)
INF: Toro/Crawford/Long/France/White/Releigh/Murphy (We just do not need to spend the $20m on Seager)
BP: Don’t change a thing here (Remember Ken Giles is on the books for the next several yrs too)
SP: SCHERZER (Add)/Gonzalez/Kikuchi/Gilbert/Kirby/Hancock/Flexen
Promoting Kirby & Hancock next year would still keep us in the top 10 farm systems. Seattle is looking really really good for the next 6-10 years so so much club control on the books!
Ty France is the 3B