This season marks the beginning of what should be a competitive era of Blue Jays baseball, but like all good stories, this one began in the middle. Toronto continued their second half surge today with their 83rd win. Over the past year, the Jays have supplemented young cornerstones Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette with an impressive collection of veterans including George Springer, Marcus Semien, Jose Berrios, and two years ago, Hyun Jin Ryu.
Buying low and hitting on reclamation projects like Robbie Ray, Steven Matz – and even Semien – further fueled their organizational turnaround. Give the development team credit for turning less-heralded pieces like Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Jordan Romano into significant supplemental assets. Young pitching has started to arrive as well, with Alek Manoah impressing in his first 17 starts and Nate Pearson hitting triple-digits in limited usage out of the bullpen.
Charlie Montoyo’s club has pushed all year, but only recently have they angled their way into the AL’s playoff quintet. In fact, today’s win puts them back into playoff position with 14 games to go. Per Fangraphs’ playoff odds, the Jays are well-positioned with a 62.6 percent chance of nabbing one of the two wild card spots.
The Yankees don’t have the momentum of their northern neighbors, but this team is better than the negative press would have you believe. It’s a tough road to hoe, however, with just 13 games remaining and their final nine against the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Rays. Put positively: the Yankees control their own fate. A loss today dropped them a half game behind the Jays, but patience is key.
Good thing, because they Yankees aren’t just the tallest team in the AL, they’ve also been the most patient with a 10.4 percent walk rate. Pairing a walk-heavy approach with the power bats of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, Luke Voit, Joey Gallo and Gary Sanchez ought to be a recipe for success. They’ve been six percent better than average as a group since the trade deadline, but their offense ranks just around the middle of the pack on the year: they rank 9th in the AL in runs, 8th by ISO, 6th by wOBA and 7th by wRC+.
The pitching staff has carried the day, however, ranking 2nd in the AL by fWAR, strikeout rate, ERA, and SIERA, and 3rd by FIP. Gerrit Cole has lived up to his billing as one of the game’s few true frontline starters. But he’s not alone, as Corey Kluber, Jameson Taillon, Nestor Cortes Jr., Jordan Montgomery, Luis Gil, and Domingo German have all provided valuable innings.
Regardless, they will enter play tomorrow 1.5 games behind the Red Sox for the top wild card spot. Boston nabbed their 85th win of the season today, pushing their playoff odds to a robust 85.8 percent. They trail the Rays by 7.5 games, so Tampa’s hold on the division is ironclad, but Boston seems a safe bet to find themselves in the wild card game.
That said, a 1.5 game lead with 12 to go isn’t quite ready to take to the bank. Alex Cora’s team does have the benefit of a soft schedule the rest of the way. Not only do they have the least amount of games remaining among the contenders, but they will happily circle the Beltway for four against the Orioles and three against the Nationals. They have two with the Mets and three with the Yankees, but the BoSox could even mitigate a tough series against the Yanks by taking care of business against inferior teams in those other nine games.
The Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Yankees pose the most compelling cases among the wild card hopefuls because of their divisional rivalries and star power – but they aren’t alone. There are a pair of contenders out west who are still hanging around this race.
The Athletics were largely expected to take a step back this season after losing Semien, Liam Hendriks, Tommy La Stella, Robbie Grossman, and Joakim Soria to free agency. But Bob Melvin has turned in another solid season from the bench, steering this club to 80 wins (and counting) and a .544 win percentage. As of this writing, Oakland sits 2.5 games out of a playoff spot with a lead early in their game against the Angels. Chris Bassitt’s return may provide an emotional boost, but with their final four series switchbacking against the Astros and Mariners, they have an uphill climb ahead.
Speaking of the Astros, they have a seven game lead over Oakland for the AL West and a magic number of nine. With six head-to-head match-ups remaining, the A’s could theoretically overtake Houston to win the division, but that’s not all that likely. Houston has a 99.4 percent chance to win the division right now, so that’s probably where they’ll be after game 162.
The Mariners round out our group of potential playoff teams from the American League. They have six more games against a beatable Angels team, but Scott Servais’ crew remains a long shot contender. They are 3.5 games behind Toronto with three teams to leapfrog and a 1.3 percent chance to play beyond the regular season, per Fangraphs.
The Mariners’ aren’t toast yet, but with seven head-to-head match-ups with the A’s still to come, the two western contenders are likeliest to eliminate one another from wild card contention. These final games count the same as any other, however, and something like a 12-2 finish from either the Mariners or A’s wouldn’t be unheard of. All we can say for sure is that it won’t happen for both teams.
MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk ran through the NL Wild Card contenders just a few days ago, and more than 50 percent of readers went chalk in voting the Cardinals to keep their hold on the NL’s last playoff spot. Now’s your chance to make the call for the AL contenders. Will the Red Sox and Blue Jays hold on? Can the Yankees, A’s, or Mariners yoink a ticket to postseason play? What say you?
(Link to poll for app users)
(Link to poll for app users)
No idea in what order, but Jays and Red Sox imo will be the wild card teams. Yankees aren’t making it when all is settled. Offense is way too inconsistent and it seems so is that pitching staff, while the bullpen has been a big problem as well. The cream always rises to the top, two best wild card teams are the Red Sox and Jays.
The Red Sox cream has been kept down by Cora and Covid. I wouldn’t rule out the Yanks, way too much talent and I wouldn’t want to face Cole & Kluber.
Whichever teams are hot for the last 10 days of the season will take the WC spots.
A 3-way tie at the end of the season is definitely possible.
I’m still holding out hope for a 5 way tie, just to find out how that works.
Rob Manfred, in a panic, will institute rock, paper, scissors to determine the teams.
A five way tie would be fantastic for baseball fans whose team is not involved. My favorite team is still mathematically alive, but has only slightly better odds than I do of Miss America propositioning me.
I’ve seen MLB guidelines for up to 3-way ties only, if you find anything on a 5-way tie please let me know! LOL
Prob this way: 5 teams mutual records against each other, ranked. #1 gets bye, 2-5 play each other. Re-rank with three remaining teams using the same logic, then a final game.
In a 5 way tie, it would have to be rock-paper-scissors-lizard-Spock!
FeverPitch: “Whichever teams are hot for the last 10 days of the season will the WC spots”
Some groundbreaking analysis right there.
Geez denny, you can’t even quote people without maliciously changing what they actually wrote. Have you ever posted anything that is actually accurate? Doubtful.
“changing what they actually wrote” I copied and pasted. That meaningless sentence is 100% FeverPitch, no need to edit.
denny that’s BS and you know it, you didn’t copy and paste.
Words in the middle of sentences don’t magically disappear when copying and pasting the whole sentence.
I didn’t write “last 10 days of the season will the WC spots”. What does that even mean?
How can you lie when the evidence is right there for all to see?
Sad, very sad.
Wait before you jump on it, I changed your “will take” to “win”. Somehow, you’re going to say that changes everything. Next can you explain to us how the team with the most runs will win the game?
You didn’t change it. You dropped the word altogether. Have you not gone back to what you posted to see what he is referring to?
What difference does it make? I mean it was an utterly useless and snobbish response to Fever Pitch Guy’s perfectly cromulent post, but the slight alteration of words used doesn’t mean a thing as it didn’t change the meaning. In fact it just seemed like a typo.
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A few weeks ago, I was thinking that as long as the Dodgers don’t win, I don’t care who wins this year. However, watching this Braves/Giants game, I just can’t help but laugh at the clear cheating by the Giants. I don’t know what they are doing, but the talent on the team does not correlate to their record. They can go **** themselves.
They are something alright, and they certainly can go **** themselves, but they aren’t cheaters, just a damn fine ballclub that has “clicked” for 150 games soooo farrrr
Let’s test this theory.
Force the Giants to sign and play Panda for the last two weeks of the season and see if he hits .330 again.
I’m suspicious too.
All their aging hitters having career years in a pitchers park?
If they’re not stealing signs, Zaidi must have algorithms guessing the next pitch.
I don’t trust Kevin Gausman reaching inside his sleeve either.
Highly suspect, San Francisco.
Stealing signs isn’t necessarily cheating
@don’t, @cap and @crypto, you guys are a bunch of sore ***ho***!!! I don’t know who any of your teams are but you show no class or respect to the amazing season the Giants are having. They’re not cheating. Yes, some of them are playing above their skill sets, some are having resurgent years and some are finally coming into their own. When you have over ten guys with double digit home run totals, you have a lineup that consistently does damage. If they were cheating how do guys like Dickerson and Yaz regress from where they were in the last two years? Farhan had a knack for finding the proverbial needle-in-a-haystack regarding talent. We have churned something like 23 different guys through our bullpen this year and the cream has risen to the top. We platoon ALL the time , use pinch hitters in early innings to get the matchups we like….Kapler is playing this team in unusual ways and it’s working. Posey took last year off and never plays more than 2 in a row to keep him fresh. Smart. Crawford maybe worked his tail off during the short year last year because he’s not only hitting for his career highs, he’s stolen more bases than ever and I think will get NL SS Gold Glove votes due to his continued elite defense. Cheating? Nope. Belt had bought into the analytics of the three coach hitting staff and it’s working. His defense continues to be elite too.
Go back to your cribs and cry yourselves to sleep like little leaguers who are sore losers. This Giants team is for real.
Oh, and BTW: I’m sure Morton, Waino and Yadi are cheating too right? They’re simply too old to be as good as they are, right? Wrong! They still got the mojo and it’s cool as heck to see. Just like Belt, Craw and Posey!!!
Nelson Cruz too
Sounds like Farhan stole everything he knows about baseball from the rays because everything you said he does the rays have been doing for years! Maybe thats the cheating they were talking abiut. 🙂
The manager is a woke, juice head, but they are playing well.
@Suntan, the Rays truly are amazing. Funny those bozos above don’t accuse the Rays of cheating too. The Rays FO is top 3 in MLB. Cheating…nope. Super smart people running the team, yep! Giants aren’t too far behind either. Zaidi is a bit of a wizard.
They moved the fences in. It’s not a pitchers’ park anymore.
It’s also not really a mystery why aging players would feel rejuvenated in 2021. Did you notice we had a 60 game season last year? Old guys get a second wind after a year of rest heals their long-nagging injuries.
@smuzqwpdmx considering that 60 game season led to their only championship in 32 years I think they noticed.
I find it very suspicious that Justin Turner was worth 0.6 WAR his first six years and then comes to the Dodgers and is worth over 30 WAR the next seven, I find it very suspicious Muncy was a negative WAR player before coming to the Dodgers now is a legitimate MVP candidate. I find it very suspicious Chris Taylor was worth 1.1 WAR those years with the Mariners now is worth more than double that every year with the Dodgers. Can you explain all this enhanced play? The Dodgers have looked suspect for year.
I have been saying the same thing most of the year. The talent they have or don’t have in this case, does not correlate to their record.
Something is definitely going on. It’s normal for 35 year old hitters to revive their careers. This happens every season. But for 3 of them to be on the same team in the same season just happen.
If it does happen legitimately, okay great but for their top 2 starters to come from nowhere after being ousted as #5 starters just 2 years ago on top of the 3 hitters reviving their careers at age 35.
Then throw in guys like Ruf and Duggar and Slater performing above career averages. It seems like no matter who they throw out there they are almost guaranteed to win.
They could literally put Dominik Leone a career scrub up against Buehler or Flaherty or Burnes or Nola and win. Something isn’t right.
This is an 85 win team at best. Not 100 or even 95. I get they are gritty and they have extra coaches but it doesn’t explain how career scrubs are outhitting all-stars like Yelich.
It doesn’t explain how all of their aging players are playing like they were 27-30 years old. Not sure what they are doing. Most teams use analytics these days so it’s not simply that.
Now this is just a theory just as sf is cheating, maybe sf isn’t cheating and some of these aging vets know that this might be there swan song. So there going all out and not try to save anything for next year. I watched doc and carp basically end there careers in the 11 nlds because each pitcher knew this was the end and my best shot at a ring.
Exhibit A pitching right now for the Braves: Drew Smyly
Career year last year – albeit in a shortened season! Comes to the Braves and sucks again.
Oh well. Braves are a bad team so whether the Giants are cheating or not, doesn’t matter. The Braves are a doormat this season and likely for the next 5 + years with complacent Snit on the team.
@don’t, if you think Smyly cheated last year, and had some trick with the Giants, why wouldn’t he still be using that method now?
Sticky stuff got banned remember
@Dont…”Smyly had a career year last year but comes to Braves and sucks”? So it’s the Giants fault that whatever worked for him last year isn’t working for him this year? You’re really making yourself look bad kid. Is it also the Giants fault that Smith isn’t as good either?
I think the Braves biggest problem is Snitker keeps running Will Smith out as the closer and he keeps giving up home runs. Richard Rodriguez should’ve been the closer since he was acquired. I think if the Braves had done just that they’d be running away with 1st place now it’s squandered. The Braves are just getting out managed at this point. I’m still holding out hope but things are looking bad right now.
Holy crap Rosario just hit for the cycle, Braves must be cheating. There’s no way a guy like that could hit for the cycle. Must have a loaded corked bat
He was traded straight up for Panda, so he has to be good.
“Comes to the Braves and sucks again.”
I’m about to reveal some ground-breaking news, “Don’tComeBacktoATLFreeman”, are you sitting down for this?
The Braves and the Giants don’t have the same coaches or training regimens.
Also, Drew Smyly threw 26 innings in just 7 games last year. I’d hardly call that a “career year”
Momentum, confidence, an anomaly which are just as much apart of stats as baselines and should be recognized as such.
These things far outweigh the prospects of a cheating conspiracy
All I hear is : ‘ Well you can’t prove they are Not”
Not a good enough X file episode for me to tune into
* You can say this is a once in a decade team, maybe even quarter century, and that might be true, but that team has to exist, and maybe that team is just plain and simply the 2021 SF Giants
@cap & crunch I would also like to add in veteran leadership because I know sf is also a lot of kids and using there version of the Memphis shuffle (Memphis is the stl aaa team sorry I don’t know what sf aaa team is so I used mine) and also them guys believe in themselves even if the world doesn’t and there feeding off that.
Giants AAA team is the Sacramento River Cats.
It’s hilarious to see the amount of ignorance that exists with people suggesting that a bunch of guys in their mid-30s having career years is somehow so improbable, it must be the result of some kind of chicanery.
When really what it is is a bunch of salty crybabies who can’t handle seeing a team play very well. Is this sustainable for the Giants? Who knows. But it’s not cheating to have 35-year-olds do well.
And if you spent any time, literally, ANY amount of time, reading up on the Giants 2021 season, you’d see the answers to so many of these “questions”. Go look at Fangraphs, Baseball Prospectus, or The Athletic. There are others, but that’s a decent start.
Or, continue to look like lazy whiners LOL. At the end of the day, it’s folks like y’all that we can remember to mute and make sure your voice online is the same as it is in real life: meaningless, void, and stupid.
@JJJHS
The thing is it’s easy for experts who were originally wrong about the Giants, to come back with “now we see how they are doing so well” after the fact.
Most experts had them winning 75-83 games at most. Most experts were wrong. To save face they find back with “now we see it”.
Truth is it’s still a mystery how multiple mid 30’s hitters revived their careers and in some cases outproduced their career years. But set that aside because these players were good once so it’s possible that they are simply “reviving their careers”.
Now add in career scrubs like Duggar and Ruf who are playing far above expectations. Okay maybe the extra coaching paid off. Now throw in 2 career #5 starters who are pitching like a #1 and #2.
Add all that up and it’s suspicious. Not just the 3 aging vets. Not just the scrubs that are playing far above their career abilities. Not just the 2 pitchers that have been lights out after being ousted as #5 starters just 2 seasoned ago.
It’s not just one of those things it’s all of those things that makes this look suspicious.
In fact if experts thought this highly of this team to begin with they would have projected this outcome. This was a surprise to everyone. If done one says otherwise and tries to point at reasons why, they are simply saving face for being wrong in the first place.
Hindsight is 20/20. It’s easy to go back on your projections and say “I can now see why this team is doing good”, now that they are approaching 100 wins.
But truth be told, this is not a 100 win team. Check their hitting leaders compared to other teams. Then check their pitching leaders. No MVP and no Cy Young and no ROY.
It’s a mediocre bunch that had career years. They played far above their norm for much of the season. They have momentum and confidence. They are gritty and they have heart.
This is a team that far surpassed anyone’s projections sure but do you think they would be in the race at all if the Dodgers didn’t lose May and Kershaw and Buehler and Seager for much of the season?
I think if fully healthy the Dodgers would be leading by 7 games or more.
If fully healthy the Padres wouldn’t be buried. No Clevinger and no Lamet or Paddack for much of the season. Tatis was out for a bit too.
Injuries are part of the game sure but this season with COVID and injuries it’s been an anomaly type season.
Marcus Semien and Salvador Perez hit more HR’s than some of the best power hitters in baseball.
Polonco had a better season that nearly every SS.
Grossman had a better season than Yelich.
It’s been a strange season. So many anomalies. The Giants closing in on 100 wins is one of those anomalies.
@USA…You have one problem with everything your pointing out. It’s Baseball. Every year the projections find a team they have been wrong about. It’s called a team that’s clicking on all cylinders. The Giants had 2012 and 2014 years where everyone said no way they win out and become champs. Was that another anomaly? Cmon man. There’s nothing suspicious about the Giants who are the top 2 in home runs and with timely hitting, which equals a good record. It’s not the Giants fault the Dodgers got the injury bug, not the Giants fault the Padres didn’t have depth. That’s why they are in first. Zaidi did a good job and got lucky signing a bunch of 1 year vets along with some good trades that have come out and produced unlike a lot of other teams.
“Add all that up and it’s suspicious.”
It’s almost as if making sweeping organizational changes to how players hit, pitch, eat, rest, and how they are aligned in daily lineups will have a positive impact on a baseball team!
Mining for misfit players isn’t new, and it certainly isn’t exclusive to the Giants. How did the Dodgers get Muncy, Turner, and Taylor to be All-Star-level contributors? They took guys with skillsets they liked and changed their approach.
“I think if fully healthy the Dodgers would be leading by 7 games or more. If fully healthy the Padres wouldn’t be buried. No Clevinger and no Lamet or Paddack for much of the season. Tatis was out for a bit too.”
Yeah, injuries happened. Guess what? The Giants dealt with injuries too. They lost Belt for a good while. Longoria was out. Alex Wood was out. Buster Posey and Brandon Crawford have hit the IL this year. They had zero first basemen for a while back at the beginning of the season.
Now, I’d agree, the Giants’ injury issues weren’t as bad as their division competitor’s… why? Because of the way they manage players. They are resting often, platooning often, they are more conscientious about diet than they’ve ever been. They master player routines.
Again, ALL of this has been written, to comical degrees. There’s not much left to be written about why the 2021 Giants found success.
if you think it’s an anomaly, that’s fine.
If you think it’s because of cheating or some underhandedness, that’s also fine.
But it’s also pretty evident that, ONCE AGAIN, you have no earthly idea what you’re talking about.
Not to mention, anyone who has been watching the Giants for years began seeing signs of this team turning a corner in 2019 when Zaidi came in.
I don’t think many Giants fans (myself included) felt like 2021 would be a season where they won 100 games, but many of us had a good feeling the Giants would be better than 75 wins. I projected 86-76 in my blog back in March.
Why did I project 86 games? Because I saw the changes Zaidi made when it came to acquiring players and saw the pattern he was looking for. I saw the changes Kapler and Co. made in 2020 and saw a pattern yet again.
Anyone genuinely surprised that this Giants team is good simply haven’t been paying attention. (Go figure)
@JJJHS
Good points on the depth. They have plenty of that. As far as the 86 wins you projected I could see that. Even if most experts had them winning 75 to 83 games. I could definitely see 85 to 86.
But they are on pace to win 105 games or so and I can tell you that nobody saw that coming except homers that say their team will always win 100 games and got lucky on it this season.
It’s easy to say your team will win 90 plus games every year and hit on it once. It’s baseball and it’s a very long season. Things ground like this every season. Anomalies etc.
I bet you didn’t peg Robbie Grossman having a better season than Christian Yelich. How about Salvador Perez hitting 45 plus HR’s or Marcus Semien hitting 40 plus HR’s?
This happens every season and I have seen teams that were below average make the playoffs and good teams miss the playoffs.
I have seen aces struggle while 4th starters flourish. I have seen power hitters that normally hit 35 plus HR’s drop to 20 HR’s and I have seen soft hitting players top 30 HR’s.
None of this is new to me. But even looking at the Giants stats, I still don’t see a 100 win team on paper. Lots of depth sure. But the depth is players that no other team wanted.
Ruf and Duggar had no place on the Dodgers. But somehow Ruf is better than Bellinger this season. Once Bellinger gets back on track this won’t happen again. Therefore it is an anomaly.
Injuries killed the Dodgers and the Padres this season. The Giants lost players too but for shorter times and the players lost we’re not of the same caliber that the other 2 lost.
I agree with you though. Zaidi did a great job at collecting depth. He put together a team of aging vets mixed with platoon type players and Kapler has done a great job at mixing things up.
If only Dave Robert’s would sit Bellinger. I know the Giants wouldn’t continue to run him out there every night. Bellinger is killing the Dodgers. Robert’s putting him in the lineup every day is also killing the Dodgers.
But for someone to say they saw Ruf having a better season than Bellinger would be crazy because not one person would say that if they knew baseball. It’s easy to say it now. After the fact.
My point is that injuries have killed the Dodgers. The Giants veterans and depth have taken every bit advantage of that and played their hearts out. They have miles of heart and they are gritty.
But to think that Gausman will be lights out next season or that Belt will have another great season would be a mistake. I don’t see this being something that happens again.
Therefore I stick to my anomaly type season statement. Which I think a lot would agree with.
I can respect your vision of the Giants as well though. I wish you guys luck down the stretch.
It’s gonna be a tight one. Then one of them have to get past the Brewers 3 aces.
Good points Balk. I’m not taking away what they have done. I just don’t see this happening if the Dodgers were at full strength.
They are missing a Cy Young caliber pitcher in Bauer and another pitcher that could win win a Cy Young one day in Dustin May. They were also without Seager and Kershaw for a couple of months.
The Giants have depth and they have heart and it should be a very interesting post season.
Good points about the depth and Zaidi making the right moves. He is a sharp one.
The thing killing the Dodgers is that Robert’s loves to put Bellinger in the lineup. He is killing them.
I am a Braves fan and I don’t see them going far without Acuna. But with a young nucleus the Braves will continue to be playoff contenders.
I just hope for a good post season. Good luck to your team.
“Ruf and Duggar had no place on the Dodgers. But somehow Ruf is better than Bellinger this season. Once Bellinger gets back on track this won’t happen again. Therefore it is an anomaly.”
We’re on 2 consecutive seasons of Darin Ruf hitting better than Cody Bellinger, but please, go on…
Also, Gausman and Belt both have had 2 consecutive great seasons. Heck, Brandon Belt has hit more home runs in a season than he ever has, and he’s done so in 60% of the plate appearances of his previous season high.
Also, what on earth do Salvador Perez or Robbie Grossman have to do with anything? So other players have career years, therefore, the Giants are an anomaly? If that’s truly your line of reasoning, then you might be dumber than I initially thought.
That no one projected the Giants to win all these games doesn’t mean jack squat. To say “no one projected them more than 75 wins, therefore, they are an anomaly” is begging the question. You’re assuming that the projections are correct and the systems can accurately measure this. They can’t. What the Giants have done, through a mix of coaching, unique decisions, and roster management is beyond projection, It just was. Even the people behind the projections have acknowledged this fact.
Fact is, Gary Jones from Yuba City, you have no idea what Kevin Gausman will do in 2022, nor Brandon Belt, nor anyone. Hell, you couldn’t accurately project the Giants, so please, tell me why I should start believing your projection now?
@JJJHS
Gausman next season will be closer to 12-10 with an ERA in the high 3s. Say 3.75 ERA with 12 wins. Solid but not the same level he is on now.
Furthermore the Giants won’t win more than 87 games next season. This is an anomaly as much as Grossman and Semien and Perez have been.
I can tell you that the 1971 Orioles had 4 pitchers that had 20 plus wins each so that’s why they were so good. It’s easy to do this after the fact.
You can spew out Giants stats this season and say that’s why they are in first place. But the fact is some of their players have never been good. Some were DFA candidates as recent as 2 seasons ago.
I don’t care what their stats are this season of course that’s why they are doing so well. When you have everyone on your roster over performing that will happen.
I am simply saying that this has been an anomaly type season. Players hitting far above their standards and teams playing above their heads while stars and star studded teams are playing below their abilities.
Injuries and COVID have changed things considerably this season. The Giants are a good team not a great team. Most of them have been outperforming their career norms.
Every thing clicked while other teams lost their star players. I get it. They have depth and they are playing far above expectations.
But make no mistake this isn’t the start of a dynasty lol. Even the 3 WS wins they have were separated by losing seasons and therefore wasn’t a dynasty either.
Just take it as what it is. Most of the Giants players are playing above their career norms or even career high points. Gausman wherever he pitches next season will go back to being a 12 win pitcher with an ERA in the mid to high 3’s. Solid #3 but no star pitcher.
Instead of mocking me and calling me names why don’t you wait and see. I have been doing this for many years now. 30 plus years projecting stats. I am usually close but not in an anomaly type season.
Just move on and hope your Giants stay hot. Then watch them fall back to earth next season.
Oh and it’s not Gary Jones. It’s Gary Brown in Yuba City, CA.
@JJJHS
Not sure where you and “statbook 123” or “nonstatbook123” whatever you want to call him, got Gary Jones.
I literally sent him my DD214 from the Air Force and my NGB 22 from the Army NG. I sent him my REDD Response which shows my line scores and shows my GT scores of 121 and 112 on 2 separate ASVAB’s.
I sent him my resume and other documents to prove that I have not lied even once, about anything that I said.
No lies told.
Dontcomeback…..hahahahaha! This was a sarcastic comment right? Cheating? Atlanta has to score in order to win. Gausman is not pitching like he did in the first half, but you want to bring up unfounded accusations about him using sticky substance? You’re a joke and should just retire from baseball as a fan. When you have Posey, Crawford, Belt, Longo, doing what they are used to doing early in there careers, it’s not cheating. It’s one last hurrah for these boys and they are having fun. Don’t taint a clicking team, that’s putting in the work.
lol
Conspiracy juice is in circulation way too much these days. We really need to teach critical thinking from an early age in this country
I’m a Dodgers fan. Can’t stand the Giants. Frustrated and surprised that they have stayed just ahead of LA all year. Had them a distant third behind the Dodgers and SD at the start of the year.
And I see absolutely zero evidence that they’re cheating. I hope the Dodgers catch them over the last couple of weeks, but if the Giants win the division it will be well-deserved.
Agreed. I’m not a fan of any team in the division but I find it exciting when a team plays way over their heads and have a great season
Well said. Same for me.
@Mweller…I agree…although I’m a Giants fan and I can’t stand the Dodgers, I fully expected to Dodgers to run away with it this year again, and I too am still surprised the Giants are still rolling. But cheating? No! Just got the production they were needing out of some aging core
Holy cow! The Braves are winning 3-0! They must be cheating! The clear cheating by the Braves I just can’t help but laugh!
@balk the cards just beat the brew tonight and won 10 straight they must be cheating like your giants lol.
Red Sox have the advantages on opponents ,rest, and travel of all 3
Blue Jays advantage over Yanks in those cats
Saying all that the Yanks have everything perfectly in place if they can become “road dogs” in the Boston and Tor B2b series the 24th-30th
I picked the jays as the top and coin flipped bos and nyy. Right now the jays are playing hot and I don’t think anyone wants to face them right now
Mehhh …. 2-2 in their last 4, with Ryu getting rocked again by the lowly Twins.
Let’s see how they do in the six games against the Rays and Yanks.
I’ll take your word on it I don’t really follow the al my team is in the nl (cards) but even in stl on the radio (101espn) they’ve been talking about how hot the jays are. My point was that the teams the hottest this time of the year are the one you bet on.
If the Jays win today and take 2 of 3 against Tampa, I’ll believe they are still hot. Right now I’m not convinced.
That’s cherry picking they have been like 16-4 in the last three weeks. Just took 2 of 3 from the Rays and swept a four game series at Yankee stadium the last time they played the Yanks. So by your argument they should do okay.
@gomer33 sometimes the worst teams are the most dangerous this time of year, because they can play spoiler and play more edgy because well what do they have to lose
Momentum can change on a dime, it’s happened to all three teams.
Jays went on a 4-10 stretch in late August, everyone counted them out, Then they got hot, thanks mostly to the offense.
Pitching and defense is what sustains winning streaks the most.
That’s a great point and your right it can change on a dime and that’s why I think my birds have turned it around. We’ve gotten better pitching since the collapse in pit and mil and better hitting but it’s our d that has really kept us in it and wanio.
Fever Pitch, show me the stat that demonstrates that pitching and defence sustain winning streaks. Foolish comment.
Those are the types things announcers say during games in order to fill dead air and some fans fall for it. There’s no statistical evidence whatsoever.
The Jays also came within one run of splitting a 4-game series against the lowly Orioles and being 1-3 in their last 4. It’s not just about W’s, its’ also about who they are playing and what the scores are.
Time will tell, I’m certainly not making any predictions.
You’re exactly right brodie.
For teams like the Orioles and Twins, playing against contenders is THEIR chance to be in the spotlight and participate in meaningful games. The possibility of hurting a division rival’s playoff chances is motivational.
Jose you sound like you’re more of a hockey fan than a baseball fan, eh?
But I’ll humour you.
bleacherreport.com/articles/1786978-statistical-lo…
“If there’s one takeaway in all of the above, perhaps it’s this: While at least one of the past 10 World Series champs ranked in the bottom half in each of the six hitting categories explored, not a single one finished in the bottom half in runs allowed, ERA or WHIP.”
“The arms, though, have a stronger case than the bats, as the average ERA+ of the World Series winners is slightly better than their average OPS+. These teams also had more total top 10 showings in the pitching categories than in the hitting ones by a score of 36 to 30.”
That doesn’t really prove anything, much less the original point about winning streaks.
Cosmo I know that no matter what analysis I provide, you’ll try to discredit it.
So rather than use stats, I’ll use logic. Are you cool with logic?
In the great sport of baseball, pitchers and defense control the ball. It is the exact opposite of other sports like basketball or football where the offense controls the ball.
If the pitcher and defense execute the way they want, the opposing team cannot score.
You can have a lineup of the greatest hitters on the planet, but if they are facing a pitcher who is making perfect pitches (let’s say fastballs with 100 MPH velocity and movement, and pinpoint location with changeups and breaking balls) then that pitcher will dominate those hitters. We have seen this time and time again, such as Pedro’s performance in the 1999 ASG.
But most importantly, you can have a lineup that scores 10 or 15 runs in a game AND STILL LOSE THE GAME.
But if you have pitching and defense that doesn’t allow any runs, you will NEVER EVER LOSE THE GAME.
Logic …. try it sometime, it’s fun.
josebatflip7 hours ago
show me the stat that demonstrates that pitching and defence sustain winning streaks.
================================
The best ways to get a long winning streak is to play weak teams and win one-run games. The Braves went 16-2, but played the Nats 6x, BA 3x, Miami 3x, and their tough teams were StL & Cincy, and they are slightly above .500. And then went 4-1 in one-run games.
I’m not saying your logic is flawed but it’s all just theory, conjecture. Good teams rise to the top. Theories as to what type of construct tends to win over another are just theories nothing more. It’s a decent hypothesis, I just personally don’t put a lot of weight on it, and, my original point is, there is no proof to it. But it’s not a crazy theory.
Joe have to disagree on the winning one-run games.
The more close games you play, the more taxing the games are on the team and especially the pitching staff.
Last week the Yanks had to use Chapman three straight games because they were close.
Next game was also close, but Chapman wasn’t available because of his prior use.
Much better to have blowout games, allowing the manager to rest his best relievers and also to give his star players extra rest by subbing for them midway through the games.
“Mehhh …. 2-2 in their last 4” is one way to spin it. Another is to say that the last time that they lost back to back games was in late August on a fluky inside the park homer in Detroit.
They just went 6 -1 against those teams you just mentioned.
What went on between tatis jr and machado? Anyone care to explain?
Tatis thinks he is all that and finally, somebody said something it (Machado).
Tatis “is all that”. And I am no Friars fan. Someday he’ll hit 50 hrs.
I think it was over when tatis k’ed looking on a pitch that was 6” above the top of the plate. I watched that game and the home plate calling was horrible no constancy I’m surprised O’Neil didn’t get tossed (glad he didn’t) he was called out twice on pitches way outside. Btw I’m not trying to be a homer because Wanio got a few of them calls and I said watching that those aren’t strikes
Came to realization they aren’t getting 2nd wildcard, but glad their fanboy GM way overbid everyone else guaranteed money by 50 mil in one case/did silly extension of another who is oft-injured (despite great offensive/not defensive skills).
way too early to call the WC race. It is wide open at this point
If Chris Bassitt comes back and makes two starts for the A’s I think they close the gap and there is a two-way tie for the second WC spot.
That is if he can come back and be effective, now I don’t know how long he has been out or where he plays and I apologize for that I barley can keep up with my team but he sounds like an important piece to your team. I mean no disrespect to him either but if he has miss a good chunk of time can you really count on him.
Hopefully anybody but the Yankees. The playoffs without whiny Yankee fans is what everyone deserves
1. Blue Jays
2. Red Sox
3. Athletics
4. Yankees
5. Mariners
Any Jays fans trust Ryu in a playoff start?
Nope! I don’t trust him for any remaining regular season game though, move him to the pen!
He should be firmly behind Ray, Berrios, Manoah, Matz, and Stripling barring a late turnaround. I think he was an abuser of the sticky stuff, that’s pretty much when he went to poo.
He was a low spin pitcher, even the curve… I don’t think he was a heavy user
Oh yes the non existent Toronto fans are so great. Have you ever met a Red Sox fan? Oakland has about
3 fans so hard to compare. Get over yourself, all fans who actually care complain, no fan base more do than any other. Of course except for you, who I assume has never complained.
Who will be 1-5 in the 2022 and Rule V drafts?
“It’s a tough road to hoe”….not to nitpick, but I think you meant “row”. I don’t think anyone ever hoed a road. It’s a gardening term. Thanks.
Well, dirt roads can be hoed into rows y’know, so there ya go, yo.
If you go to MLK avenue in Wyndanch NY you will find a road of hoes. $20 in the front, $40 in the back.
I’ve heard of that place! Doesn’t it have a bar with liquor up front and poker in the rear?
oh no, Moneyball might not make the postseason again? its almost like you have to spend *some* money on your team.
They’re still a top team year after year. No evidence that spending more would do anything but impede their flexibility. Last time they spent was when fans pressured them into giving Khris his money. Didn’t work out. Moneyball works better than most spending plans.
This is a great opportunity to point out once again that ONLY one other MLB team has gone longer without winning an LCS game than Beane’s Oakland Athletics.
Moneyball was a farce, and Beane is the most overrated executive in MLB.
They are good year after year on a severely limited budget. My anecdotal evidence outweighs yours. Of course a bigger budget would make things easier, but I contend that the way most fans think of spending is more harm than benefit. Moneyball has a track record of success. Almost every team looks to spend on big names and the success is completely varied. The A’s and Rays use their way and the results are more consistently good than most teams.
Cosmo you can’t use the “severely limited budget” excuse when there’s plenty of examples where low budget teams have gone further into the postseason than Oakland.
2014-2015 Royals
2003 Marlins
2007 Rockies
2015 Mets
2002 Twins
It’s not an excuse. Forget I said it. They are successful year after year. More than most. What they are doing is working. Teams that are good in the regular season are the same team in the playoffs but not everyone gets those results right away. Unless you think the 90’s Bills and Braves were somehow deeply flawed teams.
Rays disprove your point about spending money, 5th best winning % in baseball since 2008
When was the last time two teams (NYY & A’s) with 13 gm win streaks missed the playoffs??
What a great poll: respondents thing the Jays will win BOTH wild card spots, the one result that is impossible. The fact that the Jays are being favored after nearly a full season of under-performing when they still trail shows the corrupting effects of hype..
I just don’t see the Yanks not making the playoffs.
Bumpy road, but we got there. The start of good things.
Good to see them prove all the doubters wrong, many on this site, like yanks4life gave em no chance. He also gave the Ray’s no chance. And they both still made it even though they are in one of toughest divisions.
If you use W/L % the AL East is the best, even with the O’s.
I pick the Yanks. I watched a game earlier this year, that Luis Cessa looks like the real deal.
Cashman traded Cessa to the Reds in what was basically a salary dump.
Either the Yanks need new ownership or a new FO . That kid has upside and the Yankees are not exactly in dire financial straits. In fact, the franchise is worth close to 4 Billion (give or take). Asinine to give him away.
@dodger. Yankees tiptoed around getting under the luxury tax all year. In the end it’s exactly what they did. It might cost them the playoffs this year. Look at them to spend big again in free agency since they are now reset. It’s what they do but hasn’t worked very well for along time. I imagine Boone gets fired and Cashman’s job is on the line if they miss the playoffs in 2021.