This season marks the beginning of what should be a competitive era of Blue Jays baseball, but like all good stories, this one began in the middle. Toronto continued their second half surge today with their 83rd win. Over the past year, the Jays have supplemented young cornerstones Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette with an impressive collection of veterans including George Springer, Marcus Semien, Jose Berrios, and two years ago, Hyun Jin Ryu.
Buying low and hitting on reclamation projects like Robbie Ray, Steven Matz – and even Semien – further fueled their organizational turnaround. Give the development team credit for turning less-heralded pieces like Teoscar Hernandez, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Jordan Romano into significant supplemental assets. Young pitching has started to arrive as well, with Alek Manoah impressing in his first 17 starts and Nate Pearson hitting triple-digits in limited usage out of the bullpen.
Charlie Montoyo’s club has pushed all year, but only recently have they angled their way into the AL’s playoff quintet. In fact, today’s win puts them back into playoff position with 14 games to go. Per Fangraphs’ playoff odds, the Jays are well-positioned with a 62.6 percent chance of nabbing one of the two wild card spots.
The Yankees don’t have the momentum of their northern neighbors, but this team is better than the negative press would have you believe. It’s a tough road to hoe, however, with just 13 games remaining and their final nine against the Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Rays. Put positively: the Yankees control their own fate. A loss today dropped them a half game behind the Jays, but patience is key.
Good thing, because they Yankees aren’t just the tallest team in the AL, they’ve also been the most patient with a 10.4 percent walk rate. Pairing a walk-heavy approach with the power bats of Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Anthony Rizzo, Luke Voit, Joey Gallo and Gary Sanchez ought to be a recipe for success. They’ve been six percent better than average as a group since the trade deadline, but their offense ranks just around the middle of the pack on the year: they rank 9th in the AL in runs, 8th by ISO, 6th by wOBA and 7th by wRC+.
The pitching staff has carried the day, however, ranking 2nd in the AL by fWAR, strikeout rate, ERA, and SIERA, and 3rd by FIP. Gerrit Cole has lived up to his billing as one of the game’s few true frontline starters. But he’s not alone, as Corey Kluber, Jameson Taillon, Nestor Cortes Jr., Jordan Montgomery, Luis Gil, and Domingo German have all provided valuable innings.
Regardless, they will enter play tomorrow 1.5 games behind the Red Sox for the top wild card spot. Boston nabbed their 85th win of the season today, pushing their playoff odds to a robust 85.8 percent. They trail the Rays by 7.5 games, so Tampa’s hold on the division is ironclad, but Boston seems a safe bet to find themselves in the wild card game.
That said, a 1.5 game lead with 12 to go isn’t quite ready to take to the bank. Alex Cora’s team does have the benefit of a soft schedule the rest of the way. Not only do they have the least amount of games remaining among the contenders, but they will happily circle the Beltway for four against the Orioles and three against the Nationals. They have two with the Mets and three with the Yankees, but the BoSox could even mitigate a tough series against the Yanks by taking care of business against inferior teams in those other nine games.
The Red Sox, Blue Jays, and Yankees pose the most compelling cases among the wild card hopefuls because of their divisional rivalries and star power – but they aren’t alone. There are a pair of contenders out west who are still hanging around this race.
The Athletics were largely expected to take a step back this season after losing Semien, Liam Hendriks, Tommy La Stella, Robbie Grossman, and Joakim Soria to free agency. But Bob Melvin has turned in another solid season from the bench, steering this club to 80 wins (and counting) and a .544 win percentage. As of this writing, Oakland sits 2.5 games out of a playoff spot with a lead early in their game against the Angels. Chris Bassitt’s return may provide an emotional boost, but with their final four series switchbacking against the Astros and Mariners, they have an uphill climb ahead.
Speaking of the Astros, they have a seven game lead over Oakland for the AL West and a magic number of nine. With six head-to-head match-ups remaining, the A’s could theoretically overtake Houston to win the division, but that’s not all that likely. Houston has a 99.4 percent chance to win the division right now, so that’s probably where they’ll be after game 162.
The Mariners round out our group of potential playoff teams from the American League. They have six more games against a beatable Angels team, but Scott Servais’ crew remains a long shot contender. They are 3.5 games behind Toronto with three teams to leapfrog and a 1.3 percent chance to play beyond the regular season, per Fangraphs.
The Mariners’ aren’t toast yet, but with seven head-to-head match-ups with the A’s still to come, the two western contenders are likeliest to eliminate one another from wild card contention. These final games count the same as any other, however, and something like a 12-2 finish from either the Mariners or A’s wouldn’t be unheard of. All we can say for sure is that it won’t happen for both teams.
MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk ran through the NL Wild Card contenders just a few days ago, and more than 50 percent of readers went chalk in voting the Cardinals to keep their hold on the NL’s last playoff spot. Now’s your chance to make the call for the AL contenders. Will the Red Sox and Blue Jays hold on? Can the Yankees, A’s, or Mariners yoink a ticket to postseason play? What say you?
(Link to poll for app users)
(Link to poll for app users)
No idea in what order, but Jays and Red Sox imo will be the wild card teams. Yankees aren’t making it when all is settled. Offense is way too inconsistent and it seems so is that pitching staff, while the bullpen has been a big problem as well. The cream always rises to the top, two best wild card teams are the Red Sox and Jays.
The Red Sox cream has been kept down by Cora and Covid. I wouldn’t rule out the Yanks, way too much talent and I wouldn’t want to face Cole & Kluber.
Whichever teams are hot for the last 10 days of the season will take the WC spots.
A 3-way tie at the end of the season is definitely possible.
I’m still holding out hope for a 5 way tie, just to find out how that works.
Rob Manfred, in a panic, will institute rock, paper, scissors to determine the teams.
A five way tie would be fantastic for baseball fans whose team is not involved. My favorite team is still mathematically alive, but has only slightly better odds than I do of Miss America propositioning me.
I’ve seen MLB guidelines for up to 3-way ties only, if you find anything on a 5-way tie please let me know! LOL
Prob this way: 5 teams mutual records against each other, ranked. #1 gets bye, 2-5 play each other. Re-rank with three remaining teams using the same logic, then a final game.
In a 5 way tie, it would have to be rock-paper-scissors-lizard-Spock!
FeverPitch: “Whichever teams are hot for the last 10 days of the season will the WC spots”
Some groundbreaking analysis right there.
Geez denny, you can’t even quote people without maliciously changing what they actually wrote. Have you ever posted anything that is actually accurate? Doubtful.
“changing what they actually wrote” I copied and pasted. That meaningless sentence is 100% FeverPitch, no need to edit.
denny that’s BS and you know it, you didn’t copy and paste.
Words in the middle of sentences don’t magically disappear when copying and pasting the whole sentence.
I didn’t write “last 10 days of the season will the WC spots”. What does that even mean?
How can you lie when the evidence is right there for all to see?
Sad, very sad.
Wait before you jump on it, I changed your “will take” to “win”. Somehow, you’re going to say that changes everything. Next can you explain to us how the team with the most runs will win the game?
You didn’t change it. You dropped the word altogether. Have you not gone back to what you posted to see what he is referring to?
What difference does it make? I mean it was an utterly useless and snobbish response to Fever Pitch Guy’s perfectly cromulent post, but the slight alteration of words used doesn’t mean a thing as it didn’t change the meaning. In fact it just seemed like a typo.
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A few weeks ago, I was thinking that as long as the Dodgers don’t win, I don’t care who wins this year. However, watching this Braves/Giants game, I just can’t help but laugh at the clear cheating by the Giants. I don’t know what they are doing, but the talent on the team does not correlate to their record. They can go **** themselves.
Red Sox have the advantages on opponents ,rest, and travel of all 3
Blue Jays advantage over Yanks in those cats
Saying all that the Yanks have everything perfectly in place if they can become “road dogs” in the Boston and Tor B2b series the 24th-30th
I picked the jays as the top and coin flipped bos and nyy. Right now the jays are playing hot and I don’t think anyone wants to face them right now
Mehhh …. 2-2 in their last 4, with Ryu getting rocked again by the lowly Twins.
Let’s see how they do in the six games against the Rays and Yanks.
I’ll take your word on it I don’t really follow the al my team is in the nl (cards) but even in stl on the radio (101espn) they’ve been talking about how hot the jays are. My point was that the teams the hottest this time of the year are the one you bet on.
If the Jays win today and take 2 of 3 against Tampa, I’ll believe they are still hot. Right now I’m not convinced.
That’s cherry picking they have been like 16-4 in the last three weeks. Just took 2 of 3 from the Rays and swept a four game series at Yankee stadium the last time they played the Yanks. So by your argument they should do okay.
@gomer33 sometimes the worst teams are the most dangerous this time of year, because they can play spoiler and play more edgy because well what do they have to lose
Momentum can change on a dime, it’s happened to all three teams.
Jays went on a 4-10 stretch in late August, everyone counted them out, Then they got hot, thanks mostly to the offense.
Pitching and defense is what sustains winning streaks the most.
That’s a great point and your right it can change on a dime and that’s why I think my birds have turned it around. We’ve gotten better pitching since the collapse in pit and mil and better hitting but it’s our d that has really kept us in it and wanio.
Fever Pitch, show me the stat that demonstrates that pitching and defence sustain winning streaks. Foolish comment.
Those are the types things announcers say during games in order to fill dead air and some fans fall for it. There’s no statistical evidence whatsoever.
The Jays also came within one run of splitting a 4-game series against the lowly Orioles and being 1-3 in their last 4. It’s not just about W’s, its’ also about who they are playing and what the scores are.
Time will tell, I’m certainly not making any predictions.
You’re exactly right brodie.
For teams like the Orioles and Twins, playing against contenders is THEIR chance to be in the spotlight and participate in meaningful games. The possibility of hurting a division rival’s playoff chances is motivational.
Jose you sound like you’re more of a hockey fan than a baseball fan, eh?
But I’ll humour you.
bleacherreport.com/articles/1786978-statistical-lo…
“If there’s one takeaway in all of the above, perhaps it’s this: While at least one of the past 10 World Series champs ranked in the bottom half in each of the six hitting categories explored, not a single one finished in the bottom half in runs allowed, ERA or WHIP.”
“The arms, though, have a stronger case than the bats, as the average ERA+ of the World Series winners is slightly better than their average OPS+. These teams also had more total top 10 showings in the pitching categories than in the hitting ones by a score of 36 to 30.”
That doesn’t really prove anything, much less the original point about winning streaks.
Cosmo I know that no matter what analysis I provide, you’ll try to discredit it.
So rather than use stats, I’ll use logic. Are you cool with logic?
In the great sport of baseball, pitchers and defense control the ball. It is the exact opposite of other sports like basketball or football where the offense controls the ball.
If the pitcher and defense execute the way they want, the opposing team cannot score.
You can have a lineup of the greatest hitters on the planet, but if they are facing a pitcher who is making perfect pitches (let’s say fastballs with 100 MPH velocity and movement, and pinpoint location with changeups and breaking balls) then that pitcher will dominate those hitters. We have seen this time and time again, such as Pedro’s performance in the 1999 ASG.
But most importantly, you can have a lineup that scores 10 or 15 runs in a game AND STILL LOSE THE GAME.
But if you have pitching and defense that doesn’t allow any runs, you will NEVER EVER LOSE THE GAME.
Logic …. try it sometime, it’s fun.
josebatflip7 hours ago
show me the stat that demonstrates that pitching and defence sustain winning streaks.
================================
The best ways to get a long winning streak is to play weak teams and win one-run games. The Braves went 16-2, but played the Nats 6x, BA 3x, Miami 3x, and their tough teams were StL & Cincy, and they are slightly above .500. And then went 4-1 in one-run games.
I’m not saying your logic is flawed but it’s all just theory, conjecture. Good teams rise to the top. Theories as to what type of construct tends to win over another are just theories nothing more. It’s a decent hypothesis, I just personally don’t put a lot of weight on it, and, my original point is, there is no proof to it. But it’s not a crazy theory.
Joe have to disagree on the winning one-run games.
The more close games you play, the more taxing the games are on the team and especially the pitching staff.
Last week the Yanks had to use Chapman three straight games because they were close.
Next game was also close, but Chapman wasn’t available because of his prior use.
Much better to have blowout games, allowing the manager to rest his best relievers and also to give his star players extra rest by subbing for them midway through the games.
“Mehhh …. 2-2 in their last 4” is one way to spin it. Another is to say that the last time that they lost back to back games was in late August on a fluky inside the park homer in Detroit.
They just went 6 -1 against those teams you just mentioned.
What went on between tatis jr and machado? Anyone care to explain?
Tatis thinks he is all that and finally, somebody said something it (Machado).
Tatis “is all that”. And I am no Friars fan. Someday he’ll hit 50 hrs.
I think it was over when tatis k’ed looking on a pitch that was 6” above the top of the plate. I watched that game and the home plate calling was horrible no constancy I’m surprised O’Neil didn’t get tossed (glad he didn’t) he was called out twice on pitches way outside. Btw I’m not trying to be a homer because Wanio got a few of them calls and I said watching that those aren’t strikes
Came to realization they aren’t getting 2nd wildcard, but glad their fanboy GM way overbid everyone else guaranteed money by 50 mil in one case/did silly extension of another who is oft-injured (despite great offensive/not defensive skills).
way too early to call the WC race. It is wide open at this point
If Chris Bassitt comes back and makes two starts for the A’s I think they close the gap and there is a two-way tie for the second WC spot.
That is if he can come back and be effective, now I don’t know how long he has been out or where he plays and I apologize for that I barley can keep up with my team but he sounds like an important piece to your team. I mean no disrespect to him either but if he has miss a good chunk of time can you really count on him.
Hopefully anybody but the Yankees. The playoffs without whiny Yankee fans is what everyone deserves
1. Blue Jays
2. Red Sox
3. Athletics
4. Yankees
5. Mariners
Any Jays fans trust Ryu in a playoff start?
Nope! I don’t trust him for any remaining regular season game though, move him to the pen!
He should be firmly behind Ray, Berrios, Manoah, Matz, and Stripling barring a late turnaround. I think he was an abuser of the sticky stuff, that’s pretty much when he went to poo.
He was a low spin pitcher, even the curve… I don’t think he was a heavy user
Oh yes the non existent Toronto fans are so great. Have you ever met a Red Sox fan? Oakland has about
3 fans so hard to compare. Get over yourself, all fans who actually care complain, no fan base more do than any other. Of course except for you, who I assume has never complained.
Who will be 1-5 in the 2022 and Rule V drafts?
“It’s a tough road to hoe”….not to nitpick, but I think you meant “row”. I don’t think anyone ever hoed a road. It’s a gardening term. Thanks.
Well, dirt roads can be hoed into rows y’know, so there ya go, yo.
If you go to MLK avenue in Wyndanch NY you will find a road of hoes. $20 in the front, $40 in the back.
I’ve heard of that place! Doesn’t it have a bar with liquor up front and poker in the rear?
oh no, Moneyball might not make the postseason again? its almost like you have to spend *some* money on your team.
They’re still a top team year after year. No evidence that spending more would do anything but impede their flexibility. Last time they spent was when fans pressured them into giving Khris his money. Didn’t work out. Moneyball works better than most spending plans.
This is a great opportunity to point out once again that ONLY one other MLB team has gone longer without winning an LCS game than Beane’s Oakland Athletics.
Moneyball was a farce, and Beane is the most overrated executive in MLB.
They are good year after year on a severely limited budget. My anecdotal evidence outweighs yours. Of course a bigger budget would make things easier, but I contend that the way most fans think of spending is more harm than benefit. Moneyball has a track record of success. Almost every team looks to spend on big names and the success is completely varied. The A’s and Rays use their way and the results are more consistently good than most teams.
Cosmo you can’t use the “severely limited budget” excuse when there’s plenty of examples where low budget teams have gone further into the postseason than Oakland.
2014-2015 Royals
2003 Marlins
2007 Rockies
2015 Mets
2002 Twins
It’s not an excuse. Forget I said it. They are successful year after year. More than most. What they are doing is working. Teams that are good in the regular season are the same team in the playoffs but not everyone gets those results right away. Unless you think the 90’s Bills and Braves were somehow deeply flawed teams.
Rays disprove your point about spending money, 5th best winning % in baseball since 2008
When was the last time two teams (NYY & A’s) with 13 gm win streaks missed the playoffs??
What a great poll: respondents thing the Jays will win BOTH wild card spots, the one result that is impossible. The fact that the Jays are being favored after nearly a full season of under-performing when they still trail shows the corrupting effects of hype..
I just don’t see the Yanks not making the playoffs.
Bumpy road, but we got there. The start of good things.
Good to see them prove all the doubters wrong, many on this site, like yanks4life gave em no chance. He also gave the Ray’s no chance. And they both still made it even though they are in one of toughest divisions.
If you use W/L % the AL East is the best, even with the O’s.
I pick the Yanks. I watched a game earlier this year, that Luis Cessa looks like the real deal.
Cashman traded Cessa to the Reds in what was basically a salary dump.
Either the Yanks need new ownership or a new FO . That kid has upside and the Yankees are not exactly in dire financial straits. In fact, the franchise is worth close to 4 Billion (give or take). Asinine to give him away.
@dodger. Yankees tiptoed around getting under the luxury tax all year. In the end it’s exactly what they did. It might cost them the playoffs this year. Look at them to spend big again in free agency since they are now reset. It’s what they do but hasn’t worked very well for along time. I imagine Boone gets fired and Cashman’s job is on the line if they miss the playoffs in 2021.