Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey met with reporters last weekend to discuss the team’s activity leading up to the trade deadline (video clip available from KSTP-TV). Minnesota’s baseball ops head also offered some hints at the team’s plans for the upcoming offseason, unsurprisingly suggesting they’re eyeing a return to contention as soon as 2022.
“(This year) has not been what we wanted. But we still feel we have a lot of talent in the clubhouse for 2022, 2023 and beyond,” Falvey told reporters. Not coincidentally, the Twins generally acquired prospects at the higher levels of the minor leagues with a chance to contribute at the major league level in the near future. Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman, acquired from the Rays for Nelson Cruz, are both at Triple-A. The players acquired from the Blue Jays for José Berríos — Austin Martin and Simeon Woods-Richardson — are both in Double-A, as is Alex Scherff, whom the Twins added from the Red Sox for Hansel Robles.
Moving Berríos for Martin and Woods-Richardson was obviously the Twins’ biggest deadline decision. Falvey indicated the club saw both players as among the top 50 prospects in the league, and he was particularly effusive in his praise of Martin, whom Minnesota viewed as one of the top two talents in the 2020 draft class. The 22-year-old split his time evenly between shortstop and center field in the Blue Jays’ system, and Falvey indicated Martin would continue to see action at both positions in his new organization.
While there’s certainly reason for excitement regarding the young players added to the system in recent weeks, the front office clearly needs to add immediate big league help this offseason if the Twins are to challenge the White Sox. That’s most apparent in terms of the starting rotation, which has lost Berríos, J.A. Happ and Matt Shoemaker from the season-opening group and could also see Michael Pineda depart in free agency this winter. Kenta Maeda will obviously be among the starting five next season, and young right-hander Bailey Ober has probably shown enough promise to have the inside track on a spot as well.
There’s very little clarity beyond those two. Falvey pointed to Randy Dobnak, who struggled early in the year and has been out since mid-June with a finger injury, as a potential internal option. Minnesota has been giving starts to Charlie Barnes and Griffin Jax of late, and it’s possible Ryan or Strotman get their first big league calls later this season. Someone from that group could pitch well enough down the stretch to earn a permanent spot, but there’s enough uncertainty overall that Falvey flatly acknowledged “we’re going to need to add to that” via trade or free agency this winter.
The Twins should have the financial resources to make a couple noteworthy additions on the pitching staff. The team has just $49.2MM in guaranteed commitments on the books for next season, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Arbitration raises for Byron Buxton, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Duffey and Luis Arraez will probably add somewhere in the $20MM range to that ledger, but that’d still leave quite a bit of breathing room relative to their approximate $125MM payroll for 2021.
The position player group looks mostly set. Core players like Buxton, Josh Donaldson, Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco, Arraez and the catching tandem of Mitch Garver and Ryan Jeffers are under team control, as are highly-touted young players like Trevor Larnach, Alex Kirilloff and top prospect Royce Lewis. (Miguel Sanó is under contract as well, although he’s amidst a second consecutive disappointing season, so it’s arguable the Twins should pursue a first base upgrade).
That lineup core still looks like a potentially productive one, although the Twins are now without their best hitter of the past few seasons after trading Cruz to the Rays. Before the trade, Cruz was quite vocal about his affinity for the Twins organization, and Falvey said the front office would “never rule anything out” regarding the possibility of making a run at the 41-year-old in free agency this winter.
TradeAcuna
I’ll help
Trade Buxton to Braves.
niedenfuer92
I’ll help
His value right now isn’t worth being traded elsewhere, if you’re the twins.
When healthy he’s arguably one of the best players in baseball. Which is why he stayed.
1984wasntamanual
I wouldn’t go that far on him just yet. When he was healthy THIS year, he was arguably one of the best players, but that was also a 110 PA sample where he had a wRC+ that was ~ 2x his previous career high.
ChiSox_Fan
White Sox will win the AL Central 9 of the next 10 years!
No team is perfect.
Baldkid
ahhh we got a crack smoker here!!!
ChiSox_Fan
Which team is gonna beat them?!
Rsox
Twins may be able to score runs but they will need to revamp the rotation to keep up with the White Sox and Guardians next year (that felt weird to type)
MN BenG
Twins Starting Rotation next year:
Maeda
Dobnak
Ober
Smeltzer
Jax
The need more depth.
averagejoe15
Depth? They need a couple of 2-3 type starters if they are serious about competing.
Samuel
Historically the Twins have not had quality pitching. At times a few dominant guys, but most of their staff winds up in the bottom half of the league. When the Twins have been winning some the past 10 or so years it was primarily due to their hitters – especially their power hitters. No team can win in the playoffs or sustain winning at the ML level without above average pitching and good defense.
After the 2018 season the Twins thought out-of-the-box and hired Wes Johnson from the college ranks to be their pitching coach. He had a good 2019. Since then his pitchers have done terribly. Apparently his progressive theories have been figured out by ML level hitting coaches and hitters. The current FO regime fits with the last few.
Mashing is fools gold. Winning teams have to have pitching, a defense to support it, and be able to play strong fundamental baseball. To think the Twins turn their pitching around in time to be serious contenders in the 2022 or 2023 seasons is a pipe dream.
–
It’s coming clear that the Twins short winning spree in the AL Central came because a number of the teams took a step back and rebuilt. Now that they’re fielding decent teams again, the Twins are back at the lower level of the standings.
stps2019
The wheels came off totally this year but the last two years the starters and bullpen have had era and era+ in the top 5 of the AL so not sure your argument about coaching works. I agree however that power hitters aren’t enough clearly
Moneyballer
That is a terrible rotation! I would be very mad if they use that next year.
WrongM
@Moneyballer – I think the original post was making the point that that’s the rotation the Twins would have to start the year if there were no moves, based on who’s on the roster now; and that yes, that would be a terrible rotation.
But yeah, the “depth” they need to add is in the top to the middle of the rotation to push the end of this list down, not just more guys behind these guys.
Better pitching prospects than Ober and Jax will be in the mix for rotation spots, but I don’t know how much they will get from those guys at the beginning of next year. It’s too bad Duran has been hurt; he very well may have made his debut by now otherwise.
Joel Peterson
Hard to say no to what the Jay’s offered for Berrios. Twins are very similar to my Cardinals but I sure like what they did at the deadline more. They can sign a pitcher of Berrios’ caliber backload the deal a bit and be right back where they started with good prospects.
brucenewton
When there’s expectations on the Twins they fall flat, when everyone’s down on them they have a good year. They’ll probably win 90 next season.
YankeesBleacherCreature
If the Twins don’t resign Simmons, they’re probably in the running for one of the FA SS along with the Tigers.
Rsox
Not necessarily. Polanco or Nick Gordon could play SS with Polanco/Arraez playing 2B with Royce Lewis eventually factoring into the equation.
I could see the Twins maybe looking for a 3B and letting Donaldson DH. Or, if they don’t non-tendor Sano letting Kiriloff play 1B and letting Sano DH
Avory
Lewis isn’t close to factoring into the equation. Overhyped before the injury and yet still somehow overhyped afterwards.
Samuel
@ YankeesBleacherCreature;
The Tigers have 3 quality young SS’s – Willi Castro, Harold Castro, and Zach Short….with more in the minors.
Why would they sign a FA SS?
When a team goes through a long-term rebuild and starts to bring up their young players, the object is to give them playing time to adjust to ML competition. If they wanted to sign FA’s they could have done that years ago.
JoeBrady
The three guys you mentioned aren’t really quality SS’s. One is 27 with a negative career bWAR. Another is 24 with a negative career WAR. Short is already 27. These guys are all old enough that, if they were any good, they’d have grabbed the starting gig already.
And according to FG, their top minor SS is only 17, and projected to move to 2nd or 3rd. I’m not convinced any of the FA SSs will be worth their contracts, but the Tigers would do well to upgrade the SS position.
MN BenG
I don’t know how much of a future Sano has. His strikeout numbers are alarming. Huge bat if he connects. I think he’s similar to Joey Gallo.
mils100
Figuring out what to do w/ Buxton is tough. You know he “can” be great and if you trade him, there is a 30% chance he stays healthy and is a star – could regret it right away. Still, I think this team needs to start by moving on from some of its core that just aren’t that good. Sano has never become the hitter many thought he would be, Kepler is regressing, etc. I think this team is farther away and won’t be much of a contender next year.
Yep it is
Horrible GM from the ranks of “ Jon how do Is till have a job Daniels” of the Rangers. Twins aren’t winning anything soon. Never had pitching. The Angels of the Central
JoeBrady
Over the last 4 years, the Twins finished 2nd, 2nd, 1st, and 1st, so that might be how he has a job.
They finished 3rd in ERA last year and 5th in 2019, so they have at least some pitching.
1984wasntamanual
I know the GMs can’t really just come out and be like, “yeah, were sucked this year, will probably try to suck a little less next year, but gonna need a little energon and a lot of luck to be a playoff team”, but some of these gm pieces really make me think of fan posts I’ve read in the comments on this site.
1984wasntamanual
we not were*
ohyeadam
Fire sale coming this off-season
Moneyballer
Points to Randy Dobnak, give me a break! This team needs a reality check and if the results of this season didn’t provide one, the fellas running the front office are in big trouble! At least they aren’t talking about firing people, yet! Maybe they should.
JoeBrady
Nope, not in trouble. Their winning % in the four years prior to this year was .557. For a small-market team, that’s pretty good.
Moneyballer
This is a “what have you done for me lately” league. Another year in the basement and Twins will clean house. They’d have no choice.
martras
What was Bill Smith’s record as GM before firing? .557 with 2 division championships in 3 years. All it took was one bad year and Smith was gone.
Falvey and Levine are absolutely on the hot seat. The Twins just traded their only multi-All Star player away for talent and the player many consider the face of the franchise is inches from being traded (Buxton) and only 1 season from walking.
Moneyballer
The reason they were terrible…first off, the starters were awful. The hitting was fine and we stayed in a lot of games. That’s when the bullpen came in and blew it. For a team that that was helpless when it came to pitching, they traded their best pitcher. Not to discount what they got back but as it stands, I can’t imagine this team being any better next season!
Rezonator
As talented as Buxton is, I really hope the Twins trade him in the offseason. His injury risk is just too great and I think it would be better for the team in the long run not to be hampered by that constant risk.
HubertHumphrey
Yeah. As long as he’s a Twin, he’ll be an albatross. They’ll have a good CF who won’t usually play, and an inadequate backup.
They need to find an “all field, no hit guy (on the cheap) and just bat him 9th.
purplewidow
That’s nice but the rotation sucks, the bullpen sucks, the offense is mediocre.. plus what elite talent is gonna want to sign with the twins with no clear playoff path? They have a lot to worry about not just the lineup.. that’s probably the least of there worries.
David Barista
Randy Dobnak slides right in to replace Berrios… Spend in free agency on Max Scherzer, JD Martinez, and/or Carlos Correa?
Rsox
All three of those players are going to want to play for teams with a legitimate chance at winning the World Series.
It’s no longer a sure thing that J.D. opts-out of his deal in Boston. He may finish it out because a) the uncertainty surrounding the CBA and b) the Sox are back to playing competitive Baseball
The Twins can’t match the money the Dodgers or Giants can offer Scherzer
Correa as only been on winning teams and has only failed to reach the playoffs once (2016) since he’s been in the Majors. I see him staying in Houston but if not its going to take a lot more money than the Twins are probably willing to offer to sign him
David Barista
Who will the Twins sign in 2022 to replace their best hitter and best pitcher? The president and GM are “absolutely not” in rebuild mode.
Rsox
Expect similar signings as last winter. Guys like Happ and Shoemaker. Michael Conforto, Jorge Soler, old friends C J. Cron or Jonathan Schoop. Offense seems to be easier to find than decent starting pitching
HubertHumphrey
Cron and Schoop were good signings, in my opinion.
martras
The Twins are not a small market team. They’re perfectly capable of putting together a payroll of $150MM annually. They just choose not to.
Joefish
Dobnak and Smeltzer won’t lead this team to the Promised Land. I don’t see them as solutions. If Simmons is not brought back we will need a better defensive upgrade over Arraez or Polanco. Ss defense has to be a priority.
HubertHumphrey
Yeah, both are spot-starters/long relief. Might as well keep one of them.
jb10000lakes
As they’ve essentially stated that they were not willing to pay market price for a youngish, solid, #2 SP, who the heck do they expect to sign? What upcoming FA players see how this situation played out and think, “yeah, that’s where I want to go”. Answer, none of the ones that have legitimate reasons to garner market rate contracts. Which, is a problem, since we’ll need at least two of them.
martras
How is that? What was Berrios’ asking price?
5 / $118MM that Wheeler got?
7 / $245MM like Strasburg got based on what Wheeler has become?
9 / $324MM which Cole got?
Nobody knows. If Berrios was asking 6 / $150MM+ would you have signed him or traded him?
David Barista
I’d let him go if the price was outrageous…. Twins got a great return on that trade too…. But their biggest team weakness just got weaker as a result
someoldguy
The twins are in Full rebuild… no matter what they say.. the whole being “competitive” mantra is their ticket selling phrase and nothing more. The have no plans to add an ace thru contract, or trade, The have a bunch of rookie type bats who are all slated for DH as they are slow and fundamental lacing being outfielders..or they will throw them in the outfield and their defense and pitching will suffer… and if you didn’t learn the lesson of 2019.. it doesn’t matter if you hit 307 home runs .. you can’t win in the postseason with out PITCHING… Yes their real goal is to fool people into buying tickets and they are really good at it..
JoeBrady
I doubt it. If they were in full rebuild, they’d have traded a lot more pieces. They only traded away one year of control altogether. In a full rebuild Buxton, Kepler, Donaldson, Maeda, Pineda, and a couple of other chips would’ve been moved.
David Barista
Maeda and Pineda? What “competitive” team would want them? They aren’t trade chips, they are part of the problem in Minnesota
someoldguy
you presumed anyone wanted Sayno, Donaldson with that fact contract and his injuries… buxton with virtually no trade value because of his injuries.. , Pineda is a free agent at the end of the season.. if he didn’t get traded its because nobody wanted him.. The yanks were hot on kepler… but they didn’t have any pitching to offer… and in 2021,22,23 the lose a total of 17 players to free agency… that is a total rebuild… no matter what they say.. and they have no starting pitching.. as of next year the rotation is Maeda… thats it… no one else guaranteed a spot.. like I said some people will buy their sthtick.. i ain’t one of them.. they are the Minnesota ticket sellers.. selling “we’ll be competitive” for 30 years… when they say.. we are in it to win it.. and when they go all in on a season.. then you might believe them… but as far as I know i never played a game to be competitive.. i played to win..
HubertHumphrey
I can’t imagine a GM selling the farm to get Buxton. That’s a hell of a gamble.
Castle Spieker
Derek Falvey Twins Roster Strategy:
Offseason Moves:
Middle-Infielder/Third Baseman: Marcus Semien and Gio Urshela
Tyler Matzek
Daniel Hudson
Starting Pitching: Robbie Ray, Steven Matz
Starting Rotation:
Kenta Maeda
Robbie Ray
Michael Pineda
Steven Matz
Bailey Ober
Departs in Free Agency:
No one departs, Simmons comes back