Aug. 29: Although he initially landed on the COVID IL as a close contact, Arroyo now has tested positive, according to Ian Browne of MLB.com.
Aug. 27: The Red Sox announced they’ve placed utilityman Kiké Hernández on the COVID-19 injured list. Yairo Muñoz has been selected to the big league roster in his place. Additionally, Jonathan Araúz has been recalled from Triple-A Worcester while Christian Arroyo is landing on the COVID IL. Hernández has tested positive for the virus, manager Alex Cora told reporters (including Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe), while Arroyo has entered protocols as a close contact.
Hernández has been one of Boston’s most valuable performers this season. He has gotten starts at all three positions up the middle of the field while posting one of the best offensive years of his career. Over 483 plate appearances, Hernández is hitting .258/.346/.465 with seventeen home runs, earning himself the leadoff spot in the order.
Muñoz is up for the first time this season. The 26-year-old has spent the entire year in Worcester, hitting .318/.346/.461 with eight home runs over 356 plate appearances. Muñoz hasn’t drawn many walks or hit for a ton of power, but his 13.2% strikeout rate in the minors is minuscule, allowing him to hit for a high batting average. He has also displayed plenty of defensive flexibility, starting multiple games at each of third base, shortstop, second base and all three outfield positions.
That’s nothing new for Muñoz, who logged big league action as a multi-positional player in each season from 2018-20. The bulk of that experience came in his first two seasons with the Cardinals, but Muñoz did appear in twelve games with Boston last season. He owns a .278/.332/.402 line over 555 career trips to the plate at the big league level. Because Muñoz was selected as a COVID replacement, he can be removed from the 40-man roster and returned to the minor leagues without passing through waivers whenever a player is able to return from the COVID list.
Lemme guess……he was vaccinated…..LOL!
nope, he wasn’t
How do you know that?
Why wouldn’t the GM know
Thoughts and prayers for a speedy recovery.
Actually the article I read said they were not divulge whether he was vaccinated or not. You can still get sick if you are vaccinated the symptoms are just not as severe.
“Some”, percent? Evidence?
Quit watching Fox News, eferrer1, and get vaccinated. It’s the only way it goes away or gets weakened
Nah. I bet Fox News reports it.
“I don’t understand the difference between 95% and 100%…LOL!”
“My inability to understand math is my basis for mocking others!”
All squares are rectangles. This does not mean all rectangles are squares. A similar logical fallacy comes from the erroneous implication that vaccination means immunity.
J&J means only 66% immunity.
Many of the players who were vaccinated and still got Covid knew this when they chose J&J.
But they cared more about convenience and speed than effectiveness.
So be it, they knew the risk.
The immunity from the vaccinations eventually wears down as well. I just assume that I will be getting a booster every November like it was a flu shot.
The only reason J&J shows a lower immunity rate is because the trials were conducted during a spike – whereas pfizer conducted their study during a lull
ahhhhhhhhhhhhh mr spock
Poor Arroyo can’t stay healthy. He was back from DL what? 2 days this time around?
Munoz had been red hot at AAA, about time he got back to MLB. Can play about everywhere. Think he set some kind of RS system record for consecutive games hitting streak at AAA?
Johnsilver – Yes he had a fine run at AAA this season. This is his 10th season and he’s only been in the majors for a few short stints with both STL and BOS. In all those seasons he only hit over .300 at Double A in 2017 and last year with Boston in 45 plate appearances until his hot season in AAA this year. When Duran does well at AAA everyone says it’s the field so did the field make Munoz a good hitter after 9 years of struggling in the minors? Hard to say. Hope he does well but to bat him lead off is ridiculous.
Cora should have hit him 9th and led with Schwarber, Bogaerts and Devers.
Or long-term I say lead off with Bogaerts, then Schwarber, then JD, then Devers, then Renfroe, then Verdugo, then Dalbec, then Duran and Vazquez/Plawecki, When Hernandez is back catch Schwarber. and put Hernandez 9th. Not ideal with 3 DHs but at least your top 9 hitters are playing.
Totally agree on Munoz, should not have batted leadoff. But Cora has this dumb belief that players should bat in the exact same spot in the lineup as the player they are replacing. And the craziest thing about that belief, Cora never goes with a set lineup for a long period of time.
Fever Pitch Guy1 hour ago
But Cora has this dumb belief that players should bat in the exact same spot in the lineup as the player they are replacing.
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I thought this was true for every manager. At the bottom of the lineup, it makes no difference. But no one shifts their #3-6 hitters up and down depending on whether the regular lead-off hitter is available.
Then, once you get past the #6 hitter, who do you want in the lead-off slot? This was out 6-9:
Dalbec
Vazquez
Duran
Arauz
I wouldn’t argue about flipping any of the bottom three, but from an OBP, Munoz figured to have as good a shot as any of the three. But in any case, Munoz has much better career numbers than any of the three.
I’m not saying to shift everyone, just put someone that makes the most sense in the spot that has been vacated.
For leadoff, Verdugo made the most sense because of his OBP and speed.
Batting Munoz leadoff in his first ML game of the year is putting a lot of unnecessary pressure on the guy. Let him get his feet wet around the bottom of the order. Then if he swings the bat well over a period of time, move him up.
BTW – When Ellsbury first came up, he batted 9th … directly behind Alex Cora.
I’d have been okay with Verdugo, but flipping between 1st and 5th is almost negligible.
JB – Fever Pitch Guy is right. He keeps the spot frozen at the top and mixes the 3 thru 5 hitters daily. Who does that? Nobody that knows what they are doing. JD is again back in the 3 hole today but who knows why? Maybe it was a flip of the coin or something equally baseball related!!.
Schwarber leading off makes so much sense right now. If not Schwarber then Bogey. You want your top OBP guys in the first four spots. Bogey, Schwarber, JD, Devers, Renfroe (Dalbec until he gets back), Verdugo, the catcher that night, Duran and the 2B. When Kiki comes back he hits right before the studs so he’ll score many runs if he gets on base.
The four you mentioned should NEVER be at the top of the order getting an extra at bat over better hitters.
Anyone thinking Cora is a good manager take a look at the line-up as the team goes into Cleveland. You have a marginal SP in E-Rod going and JD gets pulled for Munoz after a big win with Sale yesterday. Why? Because Bloom got a DH in Schwarber and now JD needs to sit more as a top 3 hitter for the team?
Who is worse at their job? The guy who bats Munoz at lead-off or the GM who trades for a 3rd DH? Tonight’s DH is Devers with Dalbec at 3B and Schwarber learning how to play 1B. Is Cora trying to win tonight? Or is this one of his normal giveaways during each series? Worst manager in baseball hands down!!.
Set a line-up and stick with it, especially when you gain momentum with it. The sad thing is that if they win tonight people consider the ridiculous line-up genius on the part of Cora and if they lose nobody blames Cora. He must have dirt on more than just the owners to keep his job and even be praised when he sucks at his job!!
JD17- nice post
Paranoia is a disturbing affect.
A refreshing take, KD. The Cora-Bloom combo is difficult to support – agreed. Ron Gardenhire finished second to the Cora hiring the first go-round – so close. Gotta’ love Gardy. Remember when Cora cancelled Spring Training in 2019? Bring back Lou Gorman and Grady Little.
30 Parks – Gardy would have been a big step up and nobody would have accused the Championship as part of Cora’s cheating so the ring wouldn’t be tainted. I know it’s taboo to grab ex-Yankee managers but Girardi made a horrible Yankee team so much better than they were during Jeter’s last years that I wanted him rather than Cora. For me, they make that move and DD is still here and they have at least 2 rings since 2018.
… I know it’s ancient history in baseball years, but I’d still have Tito in town. The best manager in baseball. Hope he heals-up and comes back to the Guardians (terrible name) next year.
Cleveland Guardians. That’s awful.
You have no clue what you’re talking about as usual you cynical nut job.
soxfan1 – I think you were a little hard on 30 Parks!! I love Tito too!!
Gardy finished second, I think Tito is the best manager in baseball, and Guardians is truly awful. Fact and opinion, as “usual.” Oh, you optimists are so cynical.
I agree KD. Cora inherited a very talented Red Sox club in 2018. The pitching was stacked and they had some solid hitters. Betts was the MVP and JD Martinez came in 4th. Just about any decent manager could have won a World Series with the 2018 Red Sox. Cora is overrated. If he would’ve been the Pirates manager the last few years people wouldn’t be singing any praises
FredMcGriff for the HOF3 hours ago
Cora inherited a very talented Red Sox club in 2018.
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You do realize that the 2018 team was pretty the same as the 2017 team, right?
We downgraded from Pedey to Nunez and upgraded from Hanley to JDM. And went from 93 wins to 108 wins.
Careful, you’re opening yourself up for the video cheating scandal. lol
Really though, the difference between losing in the ALDS and winning the WS? Not including the major upgrade of JD that you already mentioned ….
1) Newly acquired Pearce
2) Newly acquired Eovaldi
3) Healthy Price
4) Healthy Kelly
You’re starting to get into the minutiae. 102 more IPs from roughly a #2 Price against 56 less innings from an ace like Sale is roughly a wash. And if you are relying on health, Pomeranz’s 17-6 & 3.32 were replaced by Eovaldi’s 3-3 & 3.30 & Johnson’s 4-5 & 4.17.
Do this exercise from another perspective. Go to B-R, the RS 2018 page, and sort by bWAR. Take a look at the first 17 names. All 17 were on the 2017 team. If you want to claim that better health made the difference between 93 wins and 108 wins, fine, but this was almost an identical team.
Joe – Are you denying that Price, Pearce, Kelly and Eovaldi were four of the most valuable players in the 2018 postseason?
Pearce – Double, 3 HR, 8 RBI in 5 World Series games
Kelly – 1 ER, 13K, 0 BB in 11 1/3 IP
Price – 1.98 ERA in 13 2/3 IP in the WS
Eovaldi – 1.61 ERA and 0.806 WHIP in 22 1/3 IP
Subtract any of those guys, Sox don’t win.
The question at hand is whether or not the 2018 RS were substantially the same team as the 2017 RS. They were.
And again, Price and Kelly were on both teams. The rational for Cora not doing anything special cannot be that Price and Kelly performed better for Cora than they did for Farrell.
But again, Cora benefited from a healthy Price and Kelly.
Farrell didn’t have those luxuries the year before.
In 2017 Price missed the first couple months of the season, and then two more months starting in mid-July. The injuries forced him to be a reliever in the postseason, something to which he was not accustomed.
Kelly missed a month starting in early July, and was putrid after returning.
To try and give Cora credit for those two pitchers’ performance in 2018 is not appropriate. Good health is what deserves the credit.
KD you know how I feel about Cora, but in this instance he did the right thing.
JD is now 0-for-19 and hasn’t had a multi-hit game in 2 weeks.
He had played every day since returning from the Covid IL back on August 8.
Whether his struggles are mental or health-related, either way it was a perfect time to give him a day off. Especially with that 4-game series in St Pete starting Monday.
As for Schwarber, guy has been phenomenal at the plate (1.081 OPS) since being activated. You had a valid argument about trading for an injured player, but based on his 46 plate appearances and what he was doing prior to the IL, I’d make that trade again in a heartbeat.
Schwarber’s performance sure beats Rizzo (.714 OPS) and Gallo (.690 OPS) and Bryant (.867 OPS) and Turner (.828 OPS).
Schwarber’s performance sure beats Rizzo (.714 OPS) and Gallo (.690 OPS) and Bryant (.867 OPS) and Turner (.828 OPS).
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Nice reply. One of the issues that some people have, and maybe most people have, is that they cannot accept that most tough decisions in life are 50/50.
And a good winning % would be 60% on trade deadline deals.
Every once in a while, I’d like to have folks on both sides acknowledge that, even if they hate someone, that doesn’t mean every move is wrong. And that, even if they love someone, not every move is right.
He won’t maintain this pace forever, but it is probably okay for the haters to admit that Schwarber (and Shaw) have been pretty good trades for the price we paid. They won’t lose their haters card for admitting it.
It’s refreshing to see I’m not the only one who doesn’t believe in picking a side and always staying on that side.
Every player (and person) has strengths and weaknesses, made good decisions and bad ones, and at times succeeded and failed.
Those who always form opinions from one side or another lose their credibility, because their known bias renders their opinions predictable and therefore without merit.
I have a fairly good opinion of myself, and that is not always a strength. But perhaps my biggest strength is that it takes me a split-second to change my mind, and I listen to everyone and everything. One of the reasons that I am the best accountant in the world is because, when the worst accountant in the world has a better idea than me, I steal it immediately.
And, FWIW, while I think Cora is an excellent manager, I couldn’t believe he pulled Pivetta in the 1st game of the DH v TO. It was like all he wanted to do was to split in TO., and he was going to do everything he could to lock up G1. Which I understand. But with Pivetta pitching flawlessly, and a reasonable PC, I think you absolutely have to go with Pivetta, try to win G1, and still have Barnes available to steal G2.
I like him, but that was a bad decision, imo.
Joe I’m an Accountant too, go figure! I give you credit for not only being willing to change your mind, but also for just listening to others … sadly something very few people are willing to do these days.
That Pivetta game was the second time Cora did that, pulling him when he was dominant and getting stronger and at a very reasonable pitch count. The other time was his no-hit effort in St Pete.
Honestly I think both situations are a sign of Cora’s massive ego. He loves constantly pulling pitchers too soon because he thinks he’s smarter than everyone else regarding matchups, and I’d guess he ranks near the very top when it comes to the number of pitching changes this season.
I know Cora is well liked by the team, mostly the Latin players, but the two most important aspects of managing are lineups and bullpen management. Those are his biggest weaknesses. Put him as manager of a team that has less than a $150M payroll, and the team will flop.
Fever Pitch Guy6 hours ago
The other time was his no-hit effort in St Pete.
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The other Pivetta decision was correct, imo. Pivetta was already at 100 pitches, so he only had one batter. He had a guy on 2nd, 2 outs, and two lefties coming up. At that point, Taylor had run off 24 consecutive appearances. I don’t see any way that the expectations against Pivetta were as good as Taylor. Taylor’s OPSa v lefties is .395. Taylor was a huge favorite in that game.
When factoring in age and health, 100 pitches shouldn’t be the limit for a guy like Pivetta.
You got Cole throwing 129 pitches in a game at Houston, and Pivetta isn’t allowed to finish the inning by reaching 110 or so pitches? He showed no sign of getting tired, none.
Even if he pitches to the lefty, if it takes 5 pitches to get the guy out, he is at 105 pitches, and still isn’t coming out the next inning, unless you think he is throwing 120 pitches or so.
If he were at, say 85 PC, and you have him for another inning, I’d have kept him in. But the young guys don’t go deep. Just looking at the top AL rookies, Mize has hit 100 PC 2x, topping out at 103. Rogers hasn’t hit 100 yet. Garcia has hit 100 2x, and topped off at 106. Ian Anderson has 100 once with 110. Plays a mean flute, but the fact is that young guys don’t go deep.
Houck only had one batter left, and Taylor was the better matchup.
FPG – Chicken or the egg situation. Is JD not hitting because when he was hot he got moved to 5th and the routine was broken. People can say a player is getting paid so much that they should be able to hit anywhere in the order. but JD is a guy who believes in routines. Messing with him is what Cora has done since 2018. Why? Because he’s an idiot. It impacts the success of the team negatively. JD can’t be hot the whole season. Did Papi get moved from his spot in the order when he had a bad week or two? NOPE. Why? Respect.
Cora was a crap bench player during his playing days and he doesn’t comprehend what a star goes through to keep a team on their shoulders. JD has done that since he arrived and yet Cora still shows him no respect.
Cora needs to set a line-up and establish an identify for the team. You get Schwarber so use him effectively. He’s been very effective at lead-off. Boom you have your 1 hitter. Next, go with a right handed bat with a high OBP. JD usually is that guy but Bogey could be too. Since Devers constantly swings for the fences then put him fourth. Schwarber, Bogey JD Devers is very imposing first inning line-up and gives teams like the Yankees and Blue Jays a run for their money. With Renfroe playing so far over his norm take advantage of it and put him 5th. Then Verdugo so the line-up has no bias from either side of the plate. Next go to the bopper Dalbec at 7th. Catcher 8th so speed can preceed the top of the order. Duran takes the 9 hole until Kiki gets back. So the order is LF, SS, DH, 3B, RF, CF,C, 2B when Kiki and Renfroe are back. Until then, just make sure the bottom hitter is fast so they score if Schwarber doubles.
FPG – I guess I’m old school. Don’t screw with the best hitter on the team. The core of the line-up needs to stay consistent. The bottom can change as needed. Most of the runs are scored by the first four hitters and late inning comebacks need the cluster of talent to generate the late runs. That’s exactly how it happened in 2018.
When JD was moved to the 5-hole, you claimed it was a mistake because he could not hit in the 5-hole. But the 5-hole is where JD hs done most of his damage with a 1.004 OPS. That said, everyone is over-analyzing JD. No one, even himself, knows what triggers him.
I agree JD is a creature of habit, everyone knows his horrific season last year had a lot to do with the in-game rule changes. Personally I think today Xander should be batting 2nd, Schwarber 3rd, and Devers or JD batting 4th or 5th.
My biggest complaint with the lineup right now is putting your best slugger in the 2-hole. As Bill James pointed out many times, the slight increase in PA’s between the 2-hitter and the 3-hitter or 4-hitter is not worth having your best run producer step to the plate with no more than one runner on base to start the game and quite often the 8th and 9th batters not reaching base in front of your best hitter the rest of the game..
Today is a perfect example! Schwarber had a single and a homer, but only one RBI.
Why?
Because the ONLY batters to not have a hit in the game just happened to be the THREE HITTERS batting directly in front of Schwarber.
For God’s sake, look at the OBP of those three guys in front of Schwarber:
Duran – .240
Arauz – .282
Shaw – .279
What a waste having Schwarber hit directly behind the three worst hitters on the team!
Ian Browne
Interesting that J.D. didn’t take a single swing yesterday pre-game or in-game. This is a guy who spends hours in the cage on a daily basis. His day off yesterday couldn’t have been better timed, considering what happened today.
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Apparently Ian Browne, and the scoreboard, agree with you.
FPG – Interesting comment about discarding opinions that are predictable. You seem to smart to really believe that. Facts. That’s what should matter. Not conjured facts (referred to as Cherry Picking when JB does it) but looking at the big picture and interpreting the data is what makes arguments work for me.
Your comments on Cora are accurate and the tip of an iceberg of bad managing. Yes, I ALWAYS bash Cora and I always lay out the facts supporting his miscues. His line-ups are poorly thought out. He believes in luck not solid baseball logic. I still remember Swihart batting lead-off because he had a good game the day before!!
Your Bill James reference was excellent but the counter argument to the nobody at the bottom gets on logic is the number of at bats in the game. Many believe the best hitter should bat 2nd not 3rd or 4th like James argued. Too many games end prior to the 3 hitter batting in the 9th.
I feel there is a degree of validity to that argument BUT I’m an OBP guy when it comes to the top of the order. In 2018, Betts got on 260 times with a .400 OBP, Benny got on 230 times with a high OBP, JD had an OBP over .400 and Bogey was near .400 and the first four hitters contributed a major portion of the runs scored in a WS Championship season winning 108 games. So if you think like I do I want Schwarber batting 1 because someone has to bat after the bottom of the order and why not a guy who is likely to hit a HR or 2B or walk? Then I say #2 needs to be either Devers or Bogey and since Bogey is right handed I give the edge to him. Then JD is the RBI guy at 3 and Devers is at 4. That takes you to our surprise hitter Renfroe and then Verdugo. That’s a very competitive 1 – 6. Since you need speed in front of Schwarber who doubles a lot and speed scores from first I put Hernandez (when he gets back) or Duran (for now with Kiki out) at 9. That leaves the catcher hitting 7th and Kiki’s replacement hitting 8th.
The bottom 3 are weak compared to other contenders so the top of the order must produced the majority of the runs like in 2018.
Cora has been using filler guys at 1 and 2 this year and then JD, Devers and Bogey. The OBPs of the fillers is not good taking away RBI opportunities from JD, Devers and Bogey. Those 3 must hit in the first 4 spots. With the addition of Schwarber I believe he needs to hit there too.
So options include Bogey, Schwarber, JD, Devers or Bogey Devers JD Schwarber or Bogey, Schwarber, JD, Devers or Bogey, Devers, JD and Schwarber. All of these combos work for me despite the weak bottom of the order. When Kiki returns the bottom spot gets significantly better.
Cora moves guys like Kiki in front using your theory that they need guys on base in front of the boppers like Schwarber.. That’s faulty logic based on OBP theory. Top four need to be your to OBP guys so clustering pays off AND your best hitters are up first late in the game when the clutch performances are most critical.
So we may not be on the exact same page on this but I think we both agree that the bottom of the order needs to be better for this to be a playoff team. I think we have adequate hitting at Catcher, Second, Left Field and Right Field. We have excellent hitting at 3B, SS, DH and DH.
That’s the problem in a nutshell. Schwarber needs to displace a hitter that is either excellent or adequate. He didn’t fill a spot where the hitting was weak (1B, CF). Forcing Schwarber or JD to play first eliminates Dalbec who is playing well lately. So the best situation under bad circumstances is to play Renfroe when he returns in RF, Schwarber in LF, and Verdugo in CF. Keep Dalbec at 1B with Kiki at 2B and your offense is maximized given it’s current talent level.
That makes the order:
LF Schwarber
SS Bogey
DH JD
3B Devers
RF Renfroe
CF Verdugo
1B Dalbec
C Vazquez/Plawecki
2B Hernandez
Until Renfroe and Kiki return the bottom of the order will suck but you still need the top to be your OBP/HOT guys.
FTR – I wasn’t speaking about anyone in particular, or taking sides. For me it’s simply a matter of credit where credit is due.
Funny you mention Swihart, do you remember the play where ERod got injured because Swihart made a bad play while playing 1B (Cora loved the guy)..
I like how much you write, but it’s hard to respond to everything. LOL
Here’s Bill’s analysis, is 17 more PA’s really worth more than 28 PA’s with runners on base?
Lineup Position Plate Appearances
1 767
2 749
3 732
4 714
5 697
6 680
7 661
8 643
9 625
Lineup Position Number of Times With Men on Base
1 259
2 323
3 351
4 363
5 333
6 314
7 304
8 293
9 288
Bill’s conclusion: “What does this tell me? Your best hitters should bat in the number three and number four spots in the order. Put the speedier (and/or higher on-base) of the two in the number three slot. Follow that up with your next best on-base guys in the number one and two spots.”
FPG – OUTSTANDING!! Bill James was the fore=father to modern metrics and as such he created a generation of baseball fans who think normalization and averages represent reality more than actual facts like batting average and fielding percentage.
These numbers are averages and don’t represent the ACTUAL team being discussed. This is a theoretical answer that is to be applied in general not specifics. There is value in having this information in your back pocket if you are a GM BUT you must look at your team and calculate which approach works best for the exact talent you have.
2018 = You had Mookie leading off hitting 346 and an OBP of .438 he reached base 269 times in 614 plate appearances. He was a perfect lead off hitter. Next came Benny a .290 hitter with an OBP of .366. He reached base 241 times in 661 plate appearances. He played in 12 more games than Mookie thanks to Cora and his resting starters policy. Benny apparently wasn’t as fragile as Mookie and Bogey. JD batted 3rd until July 31st and hit .330 with an OBP of .402. He reached based 261 times. Bogaerts hit fourth until Pearce showed up and pushed JD to fourth. Bogaerts hit .288 with an OBP of .360. He reached base 209 times. So the top four hitters reached 269, 241, 261 and 209 times. That’s 980 base runners who scored 415 runs in 162 games.
The on-base approach that I support suggests that clustering your top OBP hitters together at the top of the order to maximize at bats is the most efficient way to score. Add to it that JD hit 3rd for 4 months while batting .330 with a .400 OBP and he was a top RBI guy until the end of July.
Then Cora pulled a Cora and replaced the .330 hitter with a .279 hitter with an OBP of .394. You don’t get many RBIs when you walk but the move didn’t completely kill the momentum is just hurt it a bit. What makes this move LUCKY was the fact that Pearce’s OBP in Toronto prior to the trade was .349 over 50 points lower than JD and his career OBP was .332. NOBODY in their right mind moves a hitter like Pearce into the 3 hole when JD is on a roll and not just producing runs but giving the team comeback victories when late inning rallies start and the 3 hole is perfectly positioned to drive in the winning run(s). The move was insanity but Cora had a four leaf clover in his shoe and it didn’t kill the run to a ring.
The Bill James theory makes perfect sense BUT the specifics of a team need to be considered. In 2018, Betts ended up hitting higher than JD but only because of Cora’s actions in late July. Looking at the stats it is safe to say that Mookie and JD were the top two hitters and thus should have hit 3 and 4 under Bill Jame’s theory. I would argue a team with Mookie hitting 3 and JD 4 would not have produced as many runs. The first two hitters would not have provided the number of base runners to allow for Mookie and JD to improve their numbers. The number of bottom of the order players scoring would have dropped since Mookie not only hit for average but for more power than any alternative lead off player. Thus, while Bill Jame’s theory is sound in general each GM needs to evaluate the specifics of their team to determine an optimal order. As it turns out, while JBJ couldn’t hit he could walk so his OBP in 2018 was higher than Devers’!! This helped Mookie provide 80 RBIs out of the 1 hole.
I think batting Schwarber 1 makes sense since he has power and can produce RBIs out of the 1 spot. Bogaerts makes sense to me to be the 2nd hitter with JD 3rd and Devers fourth. Renfroe fifth and Verdugo sixth. That means it’s Lefty, Righty, Righty, Lefty, Righty and Lefty for the first six and Schwarber’s OBP is .tops at .468, Bogey is at .366, JD is at .346 and Devers is at .347. Renfroe does not belong in the 2 hole because his OBP is currently .314!!! NO WAY he belongs at the top of the order but hitting behind Devers makes sense.
Nice job on the Bill James info. I love debates like this because there is value in what James wrote but it needs to be made practical by applying it specifically to the team in question..
ERod as a marginal pitcher, maybe, but his FIP is fantastic this year, as well as his strikeout rate. He’s not a #1 by any means but he is better than advertised.
And good luck with Gardenhire. Cora’s new-school is better than the old-school of Gardenhire. Gardy never won a championship with marginal teams.
pwndroia – Wait so I’ve been complaining about Devers glove for 5 years and it’s now being used to explain that a pitcher is taking it up the wazoo because he can’t field? So, all things equal, all Red Sox pitchers are better than their stats because Devers sucks so badly and FIP explains that and has for years but nobody is motivated to fix the situation and make Devers the DH?
Just look at E-ROD’s WHIP and that tells you EVERYTHING about how ineffective he is. In six seasons with Boston he’s pitched 825.2 IP and has given up 797 hits. That means the hit portion of his WHIP is 0.96 and his walk portion of his WHIP is 0.35 totaling 1.31. Yes, more than a walk every three innings pitched. Wow that’s bad..
To put this in perspective. Chris Sale’s hit portion of his WHIP is 0.81 and his walk portion of his WHIP is 0.24 totaling 1.05. That means E-Rod puts on an extra base runner every four innings. FIP or no FIP that’s a huge issue and has been since he arrived in Boston. It’s what makes him a #5 SP at best. Thus MARGINAL.
I have to take issue with you using Cora’s name in a sentence with School. That’s like oil and water. The two don’t mix. Cora has no school. Gardinhire was old school. My recommendation was Girardi. I just like ANYONE better than Cora. From an integrity standpoint anyone else is better but from a day to day decision-making standpoint ANYONE is better too.
I never said ERod was fantastic but WHIP isn’t everything. It is a problem, but overall you’re nitpicking. Some pitchers have a high WHIP and have successful careers by it (mostly strikeout pitchers). I don’t see ERod as consistent but I thought he was worth mentioning as you continuously look for errors all throughout the team.
I get it, we aren’t great but we have a good chance of grabbing that second wild card and I don’t see every reason to nitpick everything, especially if ERod’s been fair.
But just so you know, FIP is a better indicator than WHIP and ERA. He’s not perfect, but ERod also isn’t as bad as he’s made out to be.
pwndroia – FIP is a contrived number. It’s not a fact it’s a formula with assumptions. If you buy into the assumptions, if you even know what they are, great. I don’t I like to evaluate a player on how he gets batters out. WHIP is a very straight forward evaluation of whether the hitter won or the pitcher won.
You’ll need to list the pitchers with high WHIPs that have successful careers. We may simply differ on our interpretation of a successful career. I consider Sale as a pitcher with a successful career. At this point, he’s the ONLY starter with a successful career on the Red Sox. All the other pitchers vary from horrible to mediocre. Some have had flashes of brilliance but they can’t sustain it.
The numbers don’t lie. E-Rod is an $8M #5 SP. He has stuff that looks good at times but he can’t maintain his control and he gives up too many hits per inning to be thought of as dominant or even above average. His 2021 season is worse than normal because of his heart condition and him ignoring the recommendation of his doctors. In the future, he should return to his 3.80 ERA and 1.30 WHIP and if run support is good he’ll win 10 to 15 games a year. If he played for a poor run producing team he wouldn’t win 10 games a year.
I have nothing against E-Rod, it’s just his numbers are ugly for a guy making $8M and being raved about by fans who don’t follow the numbers they just root for him. Nothing wrong with loyal fans but that doesn’t change his abilities and justify higher pay for him.
Guys I’d rather have than E-Rod making less or performing better but slightly more expensive:
1 – John Means 583K going to be a FA in 2022
2 – Lance Lynn paid $2M more going for CY Young Award FA in 2022
3 – Carlos Rodon paid $3M FA in 2022
4 – Jon Gray paid $6M pitching in COL FA in 2022
5 – Brett Anderson paid $2.5M FA in 2022
6 – Michael Pineda paid $10M (Richards pay!) better than E-Rod FA 2022
7 = Syndergaard needs to be healthy paid $9.7M in 21 FA in 22
As we prepare for 2022 we need to consider key FA’s to fill the pitching holes:
1 – Sale
2 – TBD ( Scherzer, Gausman both FAs in 2022)
3 – Eovaldi
4 – Houck
5 – Pivetta? or Means and the other guys listed above
Maybe grab a couple to have SP depth for a change. Also a closer is needed to round out the bullpen.
Purse strings need to be cut to fully compete in 2022.
Maybe they shouldn’t have traded Michael Chavis.
That was a horrendous trade. Davis had a career 5.65 ERA and that’s pitching exclusively in the NL, why did Bloom think a guy like that could help?
Meanwhile Chavis has been annihilating the ball, has an even 1.000 OPS.
Chavis has a HR, that’s all. He has the same issues that he did for the past few years. He has a 16/3 K/W for PT’s AAA team, and a 4/0 K/W with PT.
I would not have made that trade, and would’ve parked Chavis in AA until he figured out how to make consistent contract.
But Davis’ pitching for us right now, is probably a lot more important than Chavis’ HR.
Chavis is also batting .381 in 21 AB’s.
Of course it’s a SSS, but his bat could have helped quite a bit when the Sox scored a combined 15 runs in the first 7 August games.
Davis has been pitching better of late, but it helps when you’re facing teams like the Orioles, Rangers and Twins..
He wouldn’t have helped in august, because he wouldn’t have played. He had a .434 OPS in July. He had 27 ABs, and struck out over half the time. If you want to argue that we should’ve kept him and tried to develop him, I’d agree. But outside of injuries, he had no spot on the team.
Until yesterday, we had 19 hitters on the team. The only one that he out-hit was Cordero. Marwin out-hit Chavis, had some defensive value, and we still cut him.
JB – Same old crap. Cherry picking stats to make an argument. Chavis should have been the starting 3B the day he arrived in Boston. They should have moved Devers to DH and JD to LF and sat JBJ. Chavis could have been given a fair evaluation like Devers got. It didn’t take but a year and half to realize Devers can hit but won’t ever field. Chavis should have gotten a year and half to prove how much better he was defensively and whether he could adapt like Devers after a year and a half to MLB pitching. It’s four years later and Chavis still doesn’t have the year and a half of at bats.
YOU ARE A CHAVIS HATER and have always been biased!!!
He had no spot on the team because Cora stuck with Marwin waaaay too long.
I think the lack of playing time, and bouncing between 1B and 2B, negatively impacted Chavis’ hitting.
Since the trade, Chavis has played 2B for all but 4 innings. That’s what the Sox should have done, but as usual Cora overmanaged.
I don’t hate anyone. I look at the stats and draw conclusions. If it was up to me, I’d have kept him and sent him down to AAA until his K/W was under 2/1. And I would do the same with Cordero.
And from what I’ve seen on TV, he has too many holes to be a good hitter. He tries to pull everything. He also doesn’t have the size to deal with anything outside. It’s a deadly combination.
Dalbec has similar swing-and-miss tendencies, with two key differences. Dalbec will go the other way and can easily take one out into RF. And he is a lot taller, so he has better ability to handle outside pitches.
We stuck with Marwin too long, but that had nothing to do with Chavis. Chavis hit well for his first 14 games in 2019. His OPS since then is .653. Maybe he can develop, but right now, he is a AAAA player.
Davis had good numbers in the Minors and his Major League stats are a small sample size. He truly hasn’t been terrible so far for the Sox.
I want to be your hero baby. Oh wait wrong Enrique,
You should have thought about the fact that that isn’t actually funny at all. And then you should not have posted it.
Seth Brown of Oakland was also put on the COVID-19 restriction list today.
Any relation to Al Pedirique?
Meanwhile, R Kelly tested positive for Covid-16
Your streak stays alive- you’ve never once posted anything that was funny.
You have the same intact streak too, bro.
Fyi.
In late breaking news Blue Jays sign Rick Vaughn and Pedro Serrano
In other news, the Red Sox won. But don’t let that stop you from bashing Cora and Bloom. As you were.
We got back one of the types of games we’ve been losing lately. Good to see another good appearance from Richards. He might still be useful.
whyhayzee – Thanks for being that guy. CLE games are must win games at this point so they dodged a bullet and they got some help with other contenders. Yes, the Rays and Yankees won too so they are still a couple of miles behind them but the Yankees beat Oakland, Detroit beat Toronto, the White Sox pounded the Cubs and Houston beat the Rangers. Seattle is tied with KC late in the game so the win could help the team stay in front of OAK, TOR and SEA for a bit longer.
Unfortunately there’s an outlaw headed down the street with a 7 shooter ready and willing to kill the Red Sox chances for a playoff spot. Come Monday we’ll see if Boston survives the 7 games with TB and is still in WC 2 when it’s over!!!
Sorry, but Tampa Bay is a good guy. While the yankees are winning every game, so are they. That’s a wonderful thing.
whyhayzee – Nothing against TB just watched a western and liked the analogy!!
I’m a camo Stetson kind of guy.
Anyway: the Yanks have been the hottest team in the AL. They’ve won 10 straight series & 12 of their last 13 (plus a makeup game). Cobbled together a 13 game winning streak.
& while we’ve been the playing the best ball in the AL, the damn Ray’s have been playing the *second* best. & just a touch off our blistering pace!
Bonkers.
Those guys, man.
Ducky – The good news is while TB crushes Boston during their upcoming 7 games in TB the Yankees play teams like Baltimore. Either way the Yankees benefit. Either the NYY stay the same distance behind TB while expanding their lead on the 2nd WC or they gain on TB while losing no ground to Boston. You should like the next 10 days!!
I’m curious to see if Yairo can carry any of his success in AAA to whatever stint he is given at the ML level
Rsox – He spent plenty of time in the minors. There is usually a good reason for that. Like you I am curious to see if going from AAA to the Red Sox works out any better than it did for Duran. I’m glad Duran is back and I hope this second time around goes better than the last one. He needs PT as does Yairo if they are to have a fair chance to prove themselves. I think after the 7 games with TB it will be clearer whether a playoff spot is likely. If no playoffs this season then let the kids play and learn. It can only help in 2022. Devers is a testament to letting a guy suck for a full year and then have him figure things out and jump to a new level.
Red Sox win again. JD cracks homer. Bullpen saves the day. All is good.
Ahh … I see you didn’t watch the game. Otherwise you’d know Cora’s decision to have Perez protect a 3-run extra inning lead blew up in his face as Perez immediately loaded the bases with a walk and HBP.
But hey, why bring in Ottavino to start the inning when you’ve got a guy with nearly a 5 ERA that can give the opposition a great chance to come back and win. Cora loves these win-or-lose-on-one-pitch games, right? He doesn’t want a win to be easy.
Cora was probably hoping Garret Richards outing last night would have rubbed off on Perez, sadly it didn’t. Right now they have to be afraid to turn to Barnes in high leverage situations and we really need for Ottavino to not pitch tomorrow so he can be ready for the series at the Trop
I’d have used Richards also, but an argument could be made that, even if Richards is better than Perez, we should be able to trust Perez with a big lead.
Joe here’s the problem, with this year’s extra innings rule the margin for error is a lot smaller. A 3-run lead is basically a 2-run lead because all it takes is a ground ball to the right side and a SF or WP or PB to score the inning-opening runner from 2B.
A big reason why the Sox were so successful pre-August was their bullpen had an excellent K-ratio in extras. You’re just not gonna get that from Perez.
Lookit his ERA by month:
June = 5.04
July = 6.26
August = 8.64
You want to know the God’s honest truth why Perez was brought into the game yesterday?
Because the 2nd and 3rd scheduled hitters, Zimmer and Bradley, are LH and Cora in his infinite wisdom thought for that reason it would be a good idea for Perez to face Reyes, Zimmer and Bradley. Dumb, dumb, dumb.
At the very least, Whitlock – who pitched a strong 9th inning with 2K’s and only 14 pitches – could have been left in the game to face Reyes if Cora was that set against Ottavino starting the inning.
Thanks to Cora, the Sox were one pitch away from losing a game in which they had a 3-run lead in extra inings. Absolutely inexcusable.
So I was mad when they brought in Perez. But, he needs to succeed. And something happened. He loaded the bases. But think about what happened next. He threw three straight 95+ MPH bullets and struck out the next batter. Then Ottavino finished the job. So, see what happens next time Perez comes in. Just saying. Stop freezing time and screaming about the latest thing. Let it ride. See what happens next. They won the damn game. That matters.
You remind me of the guy who jumps off the top of a skyscraper, and on the way down he says “I’m perfectly fine right now, that’s all that matters”.
The Red Sox better hope it doesn’t spread. 11 Brewers got it and survived it with a winning record
Oh geez …. Schwarber batting leadoff, with Duran and Arauz batting directly in front of him.
Yeah solo homeruns are soooo much better than 2-run or 3-run homers ….
What another FANTASTIC managing job by Cora!!
Who cares about protecting today’s game? Cora cares only about the Tampa series. Today’s game doesn’t matter to him, just like every early season game.
So the bullpen is thin today with both Richards and Whitlock not available. Fine.
And yet he pulls Taylor AFTER JUST TEN PITCHES.
But wait … there’s more!
Sox have a 1-run lead going into the bottom of the 8th.
Good time to see if the well-rested Barnes can turn things around, right?
Or bring in Sawamura, right?
Or bring in Ottavino., right?
But nooooo … Cora calls in two of his worst pitchers, Robles and Davis, both of whom now have ERA’s over 5, and they promptly give up 3 runs to hand the Sox yet another late inning loss.
And to add insult to injury, Cora finally decides to bring in Barnes AFTER the damage by Robles and Davis is already done.
WELL DONE, CORA!!
Ottavino, Sawamura, etc will all be very well rested for that Tuesday bullpen game that Cora loves so much … that’s all that matters, right?
FPG – Cora being Cora. That’s not going to change until he’s fired but I think he has too many compromising photos and info to be fired!! Thus the phrase watch it and weep!! Many he sucks but everybody loves the guy. I’d rather watch Bucky Dent act than watch Cora manage!!
Dent did some acting? Or was that just a random analogy? LOL
FPG – Dent got a spot on LOVE BOAT in 1979 I believe. He had one line and he delivered it in monotone! hahaha The line was “How could you be so cruel!” My friends that are Red Sox fans often have a good laugh by delivering the line while having a few beers and playing pool! It is infamous within our group. Ironic as well since we think that same line every time we remember his stupid home run!!
The Red Sox have 30 games left and a record of 75 – 57.
The Yankees have 32 games left and a record of 76 – 54
The As have 31 games left and a record of 72 – 59
The Mariners have 31 games left and a record of 70 – 61
The BlueJays have 33 games left and a record of 68 – 61
Opponents (H-Home, A-Away)
Red Sox-TB 7 (3H-4A), CWS 3A, SEA 3A, BAL 3H, NYM 2H, NYY 3H, BAL 3A and WAS 3A.
Yankees – LAA 3A, BAL 3H, TOR 4H, NYM 3A, MIN 1H, BAL 3A, CLE 3H, TX 3H, BOS 3A
TOR 3A and TB 3H
As – DET 3A, TOR 3A, CWS 3H, TX 3H, KC 3A, LAA 3A, SEA 4H, HOU 3H, SEA 3A, HOU 3A
SEA-HOU 3H, ARI 3A, HOU 3A, ARI 3H, BOS 3H, KC 3A, OAK 4A, LAA 3A, OAK 3H, LAA 3H
TOR – BAL 3H, OAK 3H, NYY 4A, BAL 3A, TB 3H, MIN 3H, TB 3A, MIN 4A, NYY 3H, BAL 3H
So lets just count loses to compare projected outcomes
Red Sox start with 57 projections by series
TB – 5, CWS – 2, SEA – 2, BAL – 1, NYM – 1, NYY – 2, BAL – 1, WAS – 1 that equals 15 more losses for a total of 72 and a record of 90-72
The Yankees start with 54 losses
LAA – 1, BAL – 0, TOR – 2, NYM – 1, MIN – 0, BAL – 0, CLE – 1, TEX – 1, BOS = 1. TOR – 1
and TB – 2. that equals 10 more losses for a total of 64 and a record of 98 – 64
The A’s start with 59 losses
DET – 0, TOR – 2, CWS – 1, TEX – 0, KC – 1, LAA – 1, SEA – 2, HOU – 1, SEA – 2, HOU – 2
that equals 12 more losses for a total of 71 and a record of 91-71
The Mariners start with 61 losses
HOU – 1, ARI – 1, HOU – 2, ARI – 1, BOS – 1, KC – 1, OAK – 2, LAA – 1, OAK – 1, LAA – 1
that equals 12 more losses for a total of 73 and a record of 89-73
The Blue Jays start with 61 losses
BAL – 0, OAK – 1, TOR – 1, NYY – 2, BAL – 1, TB – 1, MIN = 1, TB – 2, MIN – 2, NYY – 2,
BAL – 0 that equals 13 more losses for a total of 74 and a record of 88-74.
So if the teams do what they should do:by winning 2 of 3 versus comparable teams when at home and 1 of 3 on the road then it’s going to be a tight race for WC2.
The YANKEE get the WC1 spot with a record of 98-64 and OAK edges out Boston by 1 game with a record of 91-71. The worst case scenario happens to Boston because they end up with the 6th best record in the AL meaning a late round draft pick and they watch the playoffs from their couches.
Can things go differently? Heck yes. This is here to show everyone what will happen if the expected probabilities of wins prevail. There are no guarantees in these numbers just a wake up call to the possibilities and how critical the TB games are in fighting for a spot as WC2 ahead of OAK.
How about this. Just for fun, I am willing to make an honor bet that we beat out the As. If the RS beat out the A’s, you sign off until the end of the playoffs. If the A’s beat out the RS, I will sign out until the end of the playoffs.
It feels you put some effort into your analysis, so I thought this might be a fun wager to make. And this is an open wager to anyone else as well.
FWIW – I think despite Cora’s managing, the BoSox get into the postseason. Too much talent for even Cora to mess it up, assuming they stay healthy.
But man …. as long as Davis, Robles, Perez, etc are in the bullpen …. Cora is a danger. He was the beneficiary of a great bullpen thru the end of July, now we are seeing that he’s horrible at managing an average pen.
We need Brasier and Darwinzon back. I think Davis has some value for us. At this point, I think he should be promoted to Taylor’s spot of trying to get 1-2 lefties out at the close of an inning, and then promote Taylor to a fulltime RP.
Darwinzon, yes.
Brasier, no.
But as long as Cora mismanages the bullpen, nothing else matters.
JB – You are a believer and that’s great. I’m more of an analyst. Numbers and probabilities. Your forecast of 81 wins was completely illogical and unsubstantiated by the numbers but right now it looks very possible.
Rather than betting I recommend you try your luck at lotto it seems well suited for the type of analysis you perform prior to a bet. I just showed the remaining schedule and again you are an optimist not a pragmatist so you believe they will make it despite what the numbers show.
Based on the model Boston has
OUTPERFORMED it’s talent level in April, May, June and July.
August they have performed worse than a 65 win team.
Why you think September will be like the other months is typical of you rooting for the team not really evaluating whether they can do it.
I take no issue with your fandom. That’s great. I hope you don’t normally bet using your heart instead of your head. I will be very happy if they make the playoffs but I don’t believe they will based on the numbers.
Tonight the score is 4-1 TB leading in the bottom of the 8th and Devers just made his 19th error (funny the last box score with an error by him also said it was #19) and it’s still August!! FYI the lone run was a HR by Dalbec who you trash for striking out too much. Very short-sighted of you.
Devers
2017 – 58 games 240 PA 222 AB .338 OBP 112 OPS+
2018 – 107 games 490 PA 450 AB .298 OBP 94 OPS+
Dalbec
2020 – 23 games 92 PA 80 AB .359 OBP 150 OPS+
2021 – 107 games 360 PA 333 AB .292 OBP 98 OPS+
Dalbec was a bigger star in YEAR 1 and YEAR 2 is comparable hitting-wise.
Add to the fact that Devers led the league in ERRORS and lowest fielding percentage in 2018 most folks would conclude Dalbec has outperformed Devers in his first two seasons!!!
What is so incredibly unfair is that people are calling for a new 1B rather than Dalbec but the Butcher of Boston still plays 3B three years later and hasn’t improved one bit at defense. The front office is so incredibly biased it’s embarrassing. Mookie, Price and so many other players see this day in and day out and those that say I want no part of it are shipped out of town rather than the front office recognizing their prejudice and fixing it.
So in the future when you trash Dalbec just remember he’s doing better than Devers did up until this point!!! And I won’t be surprised if Duran does the same as he accumulates plate appearances and adjusts to MLB pitching. Even a mega superstar like Wander Franco started off cold and has heated up as he has learned how to adjust at the MLB level.
Give Dalbec and Duran the same opportunity to develop as was given Devers.
1-I had forecast 85.5 wins, not 81.
2-I did so by analysis. The reason your forecast missed by so much is because you tried to forecast overall W/L by guessing how many games the RS would win against each team. That almost never works. The variance level at the game level is off the charts.
3-My 85.5 was probably ballpark correct. The reason they are on pace for 91 wins is primarily health. I don’t think I forecast nay more than about 120 innings for anyone, and we already have 4 guys at that level or above.
4-There is a difference between the Lotto and wagering on predictions. On my previous offer to wager on your prediction of ’70 wins is a fantasy’, that wasn’t gambling, because you had almost no chance of winning. Pure gambling is betting on something with no skill, like the Lotto, roulette, Keno, etc. Gambling implies that there is no skill involved.
What I do is to apply reasoning and mathematics to given situations, determine an expected range of outcomes, and act accordingly. That’s why I play poker and it is why I’ve probably won 1,000 beers in my life playing pool. And it is why I never play the Lotto, Roulette, or Keno.
JB – OK lets begin with an estimate that has fractions for a whole number. You don’t see that as a problem? Round up or round down so your GUESS is in the correct format.
Next, going game by game almost never works? Made up statement with no support. You are confusing probabilities with precise binary choices. If you start with the premise that a three game series will likely finish 1-2 or 2-1 then apply that to teams who are reasonably close in talent and you have a bottoms up prediction. You don’t expect each one to be right, just that the theory of averages will hold up. There won’t be many series outside the standard deviation.
Next, forecasting health is absurd especially with COVID. I’m ignoring that whole paragraph because the bull crap alarm on my watch is going off.
Next, the team won 56 game (if they had played 162 last year) in 2020. Saying I had no chance of being right that 70 wins or less would not happen is absurd. I believe you do understand my point though since you pointed out gambling is betting on something with no skill.
That’s exactly my point as to your expertise on predicting baseball. As a homer, you want the Red Sox to win and I am fine with that but that’s got nothing to do with skill. It has everything to do with blind loyalty. That is one way to approach predicting baseball seasons. Obviously, you didn’t experience much of the 86 year drought or you wouldn’t think like you do.
I’m telling you that your predictions are PURE LUCK. There is no science to them and as such when you get them right you should double down and play LOTTO. I’m simply trying to help you win money so you can retire from predicting because with the luck you’ve had this year, you are in for many years of bad luck predicting!!!
FYI = The 2 wins in TB gives the Red Sox a chance to tie Oakland based on the normal prediction theory that I presented showing the As winning by one game. The Red Sox overcame the odds and won 2 of 4 at TB. That’s great but remember there are a few key things to watch as the last month unfolds. FIRST – will Boston win 2 of 3 in series like CLE where they are the better team. NEXT – will NYY start losing due to Boone the idiot sitting Voit and playing Gardner. NEXT – will OAK vs SEA become one-sided during SEP or will they break even. One=sided tips the scales in the favor of the team winning one-sided and puts Boston back on the shelf for the playoffs. NEXT – how will COVID impact all the close teams BOS, OAK, SEA, NYY, TOR and possibly CLE.
Good luck with your predictions. I’m glad you have dominated at pool. Clearly you have all the angles down when it comes to sports!!