The Pirates made an extension offer to Ke’Bryan Hayes back in Spring Training, which obviously didn’t manifest in a deal, but Hayes himself confirmed to The Athletic’s Rob Biertempfel this week that it wasn’t the team’s first effort. As Hayes explains, the Bucs also came to him with an offer before he’d even played in a big league game, during Spring Training 2020.
While the two sides still haven’t worked out a deal, Hayes made clear that he’s open to a long-term pact, wants to step up as a leader of future Pirates clubs and hopes to “win a championship with the team that drafted me.” For now, his focus is on a strong finish to the 2021 season.
Pirates fans, in particular, will want to check out the column for full quotes from Hayes on his future with the club. But for the purposes of this post, let’s take a look at some historical context to see just where Hayes might slot in if he and the Bucs were to approach an extension in earnest. As always, service time is crucial to these explorations, and historical precedent is quite often relevant.
Hayes will finish the 2021 season with a year-plus of Major League service time. We haven’t seen a third baseman in that service class ink a long-term pact since Jedd Gyorko’s five-year, $35MM agreement with the Padres back in 2014. That seven-year-old deal probably won’t hold much weight as a comp — particularly since even with his recent slump, Hayes has been more productive now than Gyorko was at the time. At the time of Gyorko’s extension, he carried a .242/.295/.433 line through 573 plate appearances — four percent better than league average, by measure of wRC+. He’d previously been regarded as a top-end prospect, but not to the same extent as Hayes.
Conversely, Hayes has slashed at a .282/.351/.463 pace through his first 319 Major League plate appearances. His 2020 performance vastly outweighs his 2021 performance, but his ’21 production has perhaps been sapped by a wrist injury that shelved him for two months early in the year. He’s been a better hitter than Gyorko, plays better defense, and that extension is rather dated by now.
Interestingly, however, there simply haven’t been many position players in this one-plus bracket of service time to use as a point of comparison. That’s been especially true in recent years, when touted young players have either signed before reaching a full year of service or waited to further establish themselves in the Majors. Ozzie Albies, who inked a seven-year, $35MM extension in 2019 is the most recent comparable, but that was one of the more widely panned extensions in recent memory. Hayes, presumably, would be looking to set some form of new bar for players in this general service bracket if he were to seriously entertain offers.
Of course, whether the Pirates would want any part of setting a new precedent in any service bracket remains questionable, at best. The largest contract the Pirates have ever given out was a six-year, $60MM one to catcher Jason Kendall way back in the year 2000. That pact ties them with Cleveland for the smallest franchise-record contract awarded to an individual player. Biertempfel speculates within his column that the Pirates may already have put forth a larger offer than that to Hayes. If that is indeed the case, it’d be a rather shocking effort from such a historically low-payroll club.
Don’t do it, Ke’Bryan..
If nick Gonzalez , liover Peguero, Tua Marcano and O’Neil Cruz reach potential perform Hayes might not be a full time starter.
Lol… don’t forget Castro, Park and Bae!
You mist partake in some hood drugs….goof
Except none of the guys you mentioned is a 3B. Some might be able to play but not regularly that’s for sure. Not to mention Hayes’ defense at 3B has won him multiple minor league awards and he is currently rated very highly at the major league level for his defense.
He’s in a prolonged slump – perfect time for Nutting to lowball him on a deal.
I don’t think this is a slump. His peripheral numbers this year reflect his minor league track record a lot more that 2020. That .450 BABIP was definitely not sustaining. His HR/FB% is back to normal. His ISO has dropped to be more in line too. I’m not saying that he is who he is right now and that’s all he’ll ever be. I’m saying he is a lot closer to this than what we saw for 90 PAs last season.
All fair points, but on the rare times the Pirates have extended a player, it has been in years 2-3 of their career when they were in a slump. .200 BA and a .490 OPS since the AS break…. perfect time to bring up a Hayes contract extension and shave off a few million
Steve NOSENUTHINGTHATMATTERSATALLNEBRASKA
DO YOU PEOPLE FORGET THAT HE INJURED HIS WRIST???GIVE THE KID THE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT. WRIST INJURIES TAKE TIME
110 over 9 i guess. 45 for first 6 years 1,2,5,10,12,15. Then 65 over 3 for free agent years. 20,20,25. You would think it would be something in that area for him to actually consider, while he still gets a shot at another decent deal at age 33, while Bucs dont have him during declining years. Im curious of others thoughts
Nah he wont want to hit the FA market at 33. Way low on money too. Think 5 years, $200M. That’s exactly what he’s worth. Acuna/Albies too lowball offers – that doesn’t “set the market”.
Just giving this man at least four times more than they’d pay him just going through arbitration…
$40m/yr for an unproven player with no track record of elite performance? I guess if anyone can fit it in under the tax it’s Pit!
Yeah, that’s got to be one of the craziest valuations I’ve ever seen on this site. If they don’t lift a finger, they’ve already got him for five years (two at the minimum and three Arb*). Pittsburgh just going to throw $125 million (or more) down the drain for absolutely no reason for a guy who, as of right now, is probably worth not even $15-20 million a year, much less $40 million (!).
Not to mention the point made in the article, that the highest Pirates contract ever is Kendall’s 6/$60 million. Madness.
*according to Spotrac
Ha ha ha. Nice offer, can I play for your team?
So instead of just taking him to FA and paying like 31MM for the arb years, you’d rather pay him 40/yr so you can buy out a FA year? Is this your first day on Earth?
Thinking 2, 5, 10, 15, 17, 19($68m). He will be urged not to give up free agent years due to the value of marketing age when negotiating in free agency. This gives him security and could be good for.the pirates too if he lives up to his potential. His ceiling looks like Mike Lowell maybe?
Do it.
I hope they extend him to 6’4″.
Like a lot of us probably, I’m basically here for @mlb1225’s take.
I am 100% willing to copy his homework on this.
Gonna say it now, Hayes is the best defensive third baseman in all of baseball. I know Nolan Arenado and Matt Chapman exist, but if there was any player I’d be money on to break Arenado’s streak of 8 straight Gold Gloves, it’s Hayes.
Though in terms of offense, I’m gonna say he’s getting a bit unlucky, but needs to get the ball in the air more. He rips the cover off the ball every time he makes contact. Hayes has a 91.8 MPH exit velo and 48.1% hard hit rate. That’s more than compareable to Bryce Harper (92 MPH/47.9%), JD Martinez (91.8 MPH/48.8%), and Jesse Winker (90.7 MPH, 47.7%).
But he’s hitting a ton of groundballs. His GB% is 57.1% this year. That’s way high. That’s over 10% higher than his minor league single-season high mark. He only has a 15.6% line drive rate, which usually sat around 20-22% in the minors. He’s walking at a respectable rate (8.9%) and only striking out 21.2% of the time.
He has a ton more power than people give him credit for because he was never that big of a power hitter in the minor leagues. But if he can put up about a 45% GB% and 22% LD% in the major leagues while keeping the same hard hit/exit velo numbers, he could be a silver slugger finalist and a gold glove finalist consistently. Dude just needs to get the ball in the air more.
See?
I was not disappointed. Really good post. Thank you.
Now: thoughts on the money it’ll take?
Clutch got a 6yr 51Mm as a 25y CF in 2012. Premium position and highly touted prospect who hadn’t yet reached his peak. I’d say this is a low ball starting point for the Bucs. My guess is their newest offer is somewhere in the area of: 60/5 with two 15Mm options and a pair of 5MM buyouts. They would sell it as this:
No ext: 0.5 + 6 + 10 + 15 = 21.5 over 4
Ext: 60 over 5 + 30 over 2 so 90 over 7
Does he want to bet on himself to get an offer of at least 70MM/3
Given it’s the Pirates, I would think they have a higher sense of urgency to sign Helen Hayes.
The glove is fantastic; no one doubts it But the bat? Not so sure. I wouldn’t think too much of extending him.
Might be more beneficial to wait for everyone involved.
Cuz he can’t hit a fastball Rn
His 162 game avg so far is 6.4 bWAR, which is MVP-level. Give him all the money.
“wants to step up as a leader of future Pirates clubs and hopes to “win a championship with the team that drafted me.” ”
such a shame he was drafted by the pirates then…..
Pirates have a good future. Their farmsystem is ranked third by FanGraphs by a near-$50 million margin to the Arizona Diamondbacks. They’re going to get a lot of help from their farmsystem over the next year. They have a lot of talent, a decent bit of it being high-end talent, and have a brighter future than many are seeing.
I hope they utilize it. It is sad that a historic franchise becomes a laughing stock. They should take the white Sox model. Secure young players and fill in gaps with veterans. A big focus now is player development.
Patience, young Lee. Have faith. Remember, you were once, somewhat forgettably, a Bucco.
thats what they did a ‘few’ years back.
@retire 21. You released me. Lol. All kidding aside this team has generations of loyal fans and seems like forever they have been in the cellar.
Mr. Mazzilli, you sir are the man.
Their top 20 or so including draftees are FV 50+ prospects (pipeline FV) much of which should be comig up in the next couple years. Coilin might have a fair chance of getting traded with mason martin getting 54 HR over 200ish games the past couple years in the MiLB. He keeps that up worth seeing him later this year to see what it looks like against MLB pitching
Hayes needs 17 more hits for 100 in his career.
He looks like a south park character in his baseball reference page.
Hayes will be to PIT as Lindor was to CLE. You can’t afford his FA years, so just accept it and make the most of his lead up years.
1/15/2018 – Kyle Crick & Bryan Reynolds are traded for Andrew McCutchen. A sad date that will live in Giants history. Not that I’m a scout or anything, but when I watched Reynolds at class A, I knew this guy was going to be something. Payback for Jason Schmidt!
I’ve heard Hayes use terms like ‘While I’m with this club’ in a recent interview. He’s the son of a former MLB player so likely doesn’t need the money as much as most.
I very much doubt he signs a long term deal, and, as stated above the Pirates are very deep at SS with guys who could move to third if the bats develop.
There is no doubt we would like to lock him up for a very long term contract.
His bat is not something you look for at the corner, but his gold glove caliber defense is where he is at right now. He ‘should’ his OPS should be around average plus a few and will likely grow into some power to make it a threat but not someone you would pitch around due to that. he ‘should’ be a 3-5 fWAR type in a full season. (he has a 0.7 now in 56 games and a slump right now going .608 OPS since the start of july.)
When Cutch extended in 2012 it was worth ~115m+ options. with about 9 seasons in the black and gold. I would expect Ben looking for about the same lenth and similar guarenteed. Defense just simply isn’t as valued as offense.
based on right now, i would give him a 130 guaranteed to keep him 10 years from now. With large bonuses for allstar, gold glove candidate, hits and plate appearences. last two years option at 20-25M and a no trade clause through much of his contract.
I may consider giving options for more years to ensure he would retire a pirate if the team sees him as a franchise player. The team failed to do that with Cutch. Reportedly (the PG i think) the Owner wanted too but the GM at the time wanted a trade.
but you know, arm chair GM and just like my opinion man.
No Pirate and Hayes fan here as unfortunately I think he is going to be a gold glove player but average hitter.
.280 with 15-18 homers.
5 years 40 million.
based on now that is a bit of a low ball hes a 2-4fWAR guy that will probably grow into a 25hr guy. probably a 790-850 type OPS… with a gold glove or five..
at least 10m annual right now probably more to get him to sign in Pittsburgh unless he feels they will be a winning team in 2023 which is possible if half the prospects don’t bomb.
Might be best chance to get him cheap.
Anyways what does the pirates lineup look like next year?
Have to figure marcano factors in somewhere. I guess Alford is the Polanco replacement if he has a good 2 months. Pitching looks like a sign journeymen and hope to flip them.