Last month, reports emerged that the Marlins had exchanged offers on a potential contract extension with Sandy Alcantara’s representatives at CAA Baseball. Alcantara recently reiterated his desire to work out a long-term deal with the Fish, but Barry Jackson and Craig Mish of the Miami Herald now report that Alcantara’s reps never presented him with specific terms. That seems to indicate the Marlins’ initial proposal wasn’t especially close to what Alcantara’s agents would consider a sufficient price.
It certainly wouldn’t be a surprise if the sides reengage in talks over the upcoming offseason given Alcantara’s seeming amenability to doing so. With that in mind, we’ll take a look at his situation in an attempt to gauge a potential mutually-agreeable price point.
The biggest difficulty in finding that number might be the lack of recent comparable deals. Over the past five years, only two starting pitchers with between three and four years of MLB service (as Alcantara will have this offseason) have signed extensions. In February 2017, the Cardinals and Carlos Martínez reached agreement on a five-year, $51MM guarantee with a pair of club options (valued at $17MM and $18MM, respectively) thereafter. That deal extended St. Louis’ window of control over Martínez an additional four seasons, but the Phillies only picked up an extra two seasons of control over Aaron Nola in their February 2019 extension. Nola was guaranteed $45MM for that briefer term, with his option year valued at $16MM.
Of those two hurlers, Martínez seems a more appropriate reference point for Alcantara. Both pitchers are hard-throwing sinkerballers who specialize in keeping the ball on the ground while generating whiffs at a rate closer to league average. While it might be easy to forget given his struggles in recent years, Martínez was one of the best young arms in the majors at the time he signed his deal. Between 2014-16, the Cardinals righty worked to a 3.22 ERA over 464 1/3 innings with a 22.7% strikeout rate and a massive 54.7% grounder rate. Opposing hitters batted .246/.320/.353 against Martínez during that three-year stretch.
Since the start of the 2019 campaign, Alcantara has posted a 3.59 ERA over 390 2/3 frames. He’s punched out hitters at a 19.9% clip with a 48.2% groundball percentage and a .233/.307/.378 slash line allowed. Alcantara’s platform season (3.39 ERA, 21.7% strikeout rate, 53% groundball percentage) is similar to Martínez’s 2016 campaign, albeit a tad less impressive (3.04 ERA, 21.5% strikeout rate, 56.4% grounder rate). Martínez, who was also a year younger at the time than Alcantara is now, arguably had a slightly more impressive body of work but looks like a fairly straightforward reference point.
It’s at least worth examining Nola’s pre-extension performance, but it’s clear he’s a less obvious precedent. The Phillies righty had a 3.32 ERA over his three prior seasons — right in line with those of Martínez and Alcantara — but the comparison becomes less apt from there. Nola was a far better strikeout pitcher (26.4%) and had held opposing hitters to a stifling .228/.286/.356 line between 2016-18.
More importantly, Nola’s extension came on the heels of a platform season in which he posted a 2.37 ERA over 212 1/3 frames, earning a third-place finish in NL Cy Young Award voting. Nola’s performance over his first three-plus seasons quite clearly surpasses that of Alcantara — who has been very good but hasn’t had an elite, Cy Young-caliber campaign to this point.
Martínez’s deal paid him $4.5MM for the first of his would-be arbitration seasons, followed by successive $11.5MM salaries for the remaining four years of the guarantee (plus $500K buyouts on the aforementioned pair of options). It’s possible the Marlins would prefer a more gradual escalation of salaries in any Alcantara deal, but the $10.2MM average annual value of the guaranteed years in Martínez’s contract seems a worthwhile goal for Alcantara’s reps.
Since Alcantara’s a year older than Martínez was, he may be more reluctant to sign away a fourth potential free agent year. That said, he probably doesn’t have the track record to sway the Marlins to guarantee him over $10MM per season for the right to buy out only two free agent years — as Nola did with Philadelphia. Splitting the difference, a deal that buys out three free agent seasons seems like the best fit for both parties.
Because Alcantara already has three years of team control via arbitration remaining, buying out three free agent seasons would mean a deal that extends the Marlins’ window through 2027. Miami would likely require the final two seasons to be club option years in such a scenario, given that they’re guaranteeing Alcantara more money up front than they would if they proceeded year-by-year through arbitration.
In that case, we’d wind up with four guaranteed seasons. Using the $10.2MM AAV of Martínez’s deal, that comes out to a guarantee in the $41MM range between 2022-25 with a pair of club options (likely valued around $15-18MM, as those in Martínez’s and Nola’s deals were) covering the 2026 and 2027 campaigns. That’d set Alcantara’s earning potential around $70-75MM over six seasons while positioning him to reach free agency entering his age-32 season if Miami were to exercise the options.
This is, of course, an entirely theoretical exercise. Perhaps Alcantara’s more amenable to signing away additional free agent years for immediate financial certainty. On the other hand, the Martínez extension is almost five years old, so there’s an argument Alcantara’s reps should set their sights higher in an attempt to push the market forward.
It’s also possible the team’s efforts to broker an Alcantara extension would be contingent on him signing for less than that precedent might suggest, both in light of Miami’s generally low payrolls and their enviable stockpile of other controllable starting pitchers. That said, given the seeming probability the two sides will reengage at some point, it’s worth considering a speculative framework of a potential deal to keep one of the Marlins’ All-Star starters in South Florida for the long haul.
JOHNSmith2778
Marlins probably offered him $6m a year for 4 with two team options at $8m each.
jonbluvin
And a box of deferred cookies, payable starting in 2025 at one cookie per year.
BasedBall
Sandy, we will gladly pay you next decade, for a Cy Young award today.
At least Wimpy got burgers.
hoof hearted
Man, that was a long article.
citizen
Marlins probably offered 100 million, $1 per year for 100 million years
MarlinsFanBase
I know there are many dimwits who are behind on the news, but Jefferey Loria is no longer the owner of the Marlins. He has not been for a few years.
Carry on.
firegibby
The new owners don’t have money. When they first bought the team they had to cut payroll just to afford the payments from everything I read.
MarlinsFanBase
Where’d you read it? Because the news in Miami…you know where the team actually plays….we all knew they had to unload the players because they were not winning with the roster the very second that Jose Fernandez died. If they would have went after the type of pitching the team needed just to contend, they would have escalated to a payroll in the $250 million range with all of the raises coming to the players already on the roster.
But don’t let the facts get in the way of the fictional piece you read…probably on E!SPN or FOX Sports….or another team’s beat coverage.
rockofloveusa1
who to blame for that ? Rob Manfred for being jeter fan.
Jorge Mas should got the team. he was going to keep them together he said first year give fans a change to come out.
plus that does not hold up . if you turning down offer from marlins .. to buy five years of season tickets. plus he buy tickets to give away also
MarlinsFanBase
Another failed fact.
Jorge Mas himself came out and admitted that he was outbid by the Jeter group led by Sherman.
And if there was ever anything to complain about with Marlins ownership, it should be the fact from when Loria and Henry combined with Selig to pull off that underhanded deal in which Henry landed in Bostion, Loria here, and the Expos in DC. All the while, Selig blocked Gustavo Cisneros from bidding on the Marlins and Mark Cuban from bidding on any of the three teams (Marlins, Expos, Red Sox). That was the true thing to complain about because Cisneros and Cuban would have been far better owners than Loria, Henry, Mas, Sherman/Jeter. You want to complain, complain about that…not Jeter/Sherman with this extremely uninformed and delusional narrative that praises Loria/Samson…that falls in line with the fictional work that comes from E!SPN and FOX Sports.
rockofloveusa1
you are what you are
if you think Cuban been far better owner .
Selig blocked Gustavo Cisneros from bidding on the Marlins and Mark Cuban right move.. why he never been better owner
facts are refusing to answer
Jeter’s group came in and had to clean up the mess Loria ? what mess? without loria jeter owner would not make a profits. cause stadium along.
rockofloveusa1
MarlinsFanBase9 you dont talk for .
if you want to go their we can dimwits .
how many trade you supported under jeter it seem like all them.
one Jefferey Loria was a better owner . he got a stadium . two colors, jersey ,stadium look lot better . ws marlins had in 1st 4 years .
marlins 14 years under Jefferey Loria nl east was last 4 time . jeter 4 years last 3 times… i would weather have hope than no hope.
i can call you out on everything . i been fan from 1992 to now.
you sound like a jeter/ yanks/ than marlins fan . you want to talk more test it.
MarlinsFanBase
Here are some facts.
First, the 2003 World Series championship was the result of Dave Dombrowski’s work in the previous regime. Loria was just lucky enough to walk in the door in 2002 after destroying baseball in Montreal.
As for trades I support under Jeter’s regime, we knew that we weren’t winning with the roster the very second Jose Fernandez died. Paying for the free agent pitching we needed just to contend, in combination of the raises players were getting in the deferred money done by Loria, and arbitration, the payroll was going to go into the $250 million range. The Marlins can’t afford that in our market.
Jeter’s group came in and had to clean up the mess Loria left with the stupid contracts with money he deferred to after he knew he would have sold the team.
The stadium was coming no matter what. It was not Loria who got it done.
I’m not a Jeter fan. I did not like him when he was a player and I didn’t like Michael Jordan either. However, they are our owners, so I hope those two egomaniacs bring their hatred for losing to our team. So far, I like what has been done with this team. We have a nice, young pitching staff. Our hitting prospects need to catch up.
As for other decisions under Jeter, I did not support his handling of the Conine, Dawson, Perez, and McKeon situation. I also have been puzzled as to why they kept Mike Hill. However, based on Hill getting a job with the league office, I figure that there is something behind the scenes that Hill has on the league that we all may never know. I still don’t support the handling of Conine, Dawson, Perez and McKeon.
You want hope, it’s called patience. If you think Loria was a good owner, you’re out of your mind and can’t be a clear-minded Marlins fan and are probably David Samson or someone else in that family. No Marlins fan likes Loria or his midget stepson or whatever Samson is to him.
And the fact that you gave Loria credit for 2003 shows you know very little about how that team was built. Again. Dombrowski’s work; not Loria’s team. Learn the facts.
I have been a Marlins fan since the day Miami was granted a team.
Mjm117
No true Marlins fan would ever say “ Loria was a good owner”
MarlinsFanBase
Exactly. This @rockofloveusa1 guy is either a troll or David Samson.
rockofloveusa1
And the fact that you gave Loria credit for 2003 shows you know very little about how that team was built.
to you loria made moves to make 2003 marlins better .
okJanuary 8, 2003: Todd Hollandsworth signed as a Free Agent with the Florida Marlins.[3]
January 28, 2003: Iván Rodríguez signed as a Free Agent with the Florida Marlins.[4]
February 13, 2003: Al Martin signed as a Free Agent with the Florida Marlins.[5]
February 15, 2003: Kevin Millar was purchased by the Boston Red Sox from the Florida Marlins.[6]
March 28, 2003: Al Martin was released by the Florida Marlins
and jack and trade during season.
rockofloveusa1
Exactly. This @rockofloveusa1 guy is either a troll or David Samson.
right the guy suck jeter and yanks dick. name MarlinsFanBase..
post again , calling troll . i call you everytime you own hear . you real troll .saying facts saying no move where move to make 2003 team better.
Montrell would not build a stadium . was not for David Samson. or loria . marlins would have move also in 2013 . cause miami dolphins where kicking them out of their stadium.. so yes think them for getting a stadium
and you are not marlins fan base . troll happy with losing if you want to go their
rockofloveusa1
2002 and 2004 marlins should won ws without Loria moves. as you put it..
loria made moves 2002 dec till 2017.
you dont explain why we made moves . that got team better to be ws champs.
we did not need the moves to the team better . they won ws 2002., and should have again to 2004 to you.
rockofloveusa1
No true Marlins fan would ever say jeter /yanks are doing better as owner than loria. .
without stadium jeter destroy . this owner would not have better tv deal, stadium name, more ad deal.
MetsFan22
Join a real team like the Astros or whitesoxs.
ludafish
Yes! I finally have confirmation you’re just a troll. A funny one though, not those evil jerks.
SalaryCapMyth
Man..I just don’t have the heart. Does anyone else want to rub something in Metsfan22’s face? I’m giving up my spot. =))
MasterShake
He didn’t list the Mets maybe he’s coming to his senses
MarlinsFanBase
@MasterShake
Can he really boast about the Mets right now? They’re going through their traditional downward spiral. This is the moment every year when their fans have very little to say except for giving excuses….or they just disappear like @MetsFan22’s good buddy @WhyNot has done.
MarlinsFanBase
@MetsFan22
You should tell that to deGrom. He plays for a team that has the longest championship drought in the NL East. At least Alcantara plays for the NL East team that has the most championships since the formation of this version of the NL East.
rockofloveusa1
dont you mean rays?
BasedBall
Cards decided to resign Carlos and trade Sandy the same year.
Ouch.
acmeants
What can he expect to make in first year of arbitration? $3-$4 million? As good as he looks sometimes, he is also inconsistent. It’s a gamble to offer more than about $40 mil for four years and a couple of option years at maybe $12 and $15 million.
ludafish
I would give him the same deal Martinez signed in a heartbeat.
Only problem as the years go up so do the salaries… So he probably wants more.
TheGr8One
He’s not signing at those numbers to be a FA at 32. Not the way pay is trending. Bet on yourself young man and you’ll make double
StudWinfield
If you stay healthy. the bigger risk is in ones health not talent. I would speculate that Acuna, Roberts and Jimenez are feeling better about their deals right now. Severino too.
stretch123
Alcantara is a great pitcher but I don’t think he’s a true No 1. Feels like a No 2/3 on a playoff contender. It might make sense to trade him for a few young bats given the lack of quality hitters in Miami and the abundance of pitching in the organization.
MarlinsFanBase
The reality is that the Marlins are going to be trading at least one of the pitchers to secure a young bat. The pitching has developed faster than the hitting, and it would be a waste to wait for the hitting prospects to catch up when we have a pitching talent surplus available to acquire MLB hitters. I’ve felt all along that the Marlins and Blue Jays are a very good match for a trade of a young SP for a young big bat. The question would be who are the players from each side.
firegibby
Agree Jay’s and Miami are a perfect trade pair for Sandy.
MarlinsFanBase
I can see that, nut who would the Jays send back. Very likely to convince the Marlins to give Alcantara, the Jays may have to talk Bo Bichette for him. If any lesser bat, you will not get Alcantara or Rogers and very unlikely to get Sixto either.
rockofloveusa1
no one want Sixto right now .
with injure shoulder.
rockofloveusa1
dont agree in open trade market . teams that want him. unless you pay high price right away…
rockofloveusa1
Dombrowski’s dd not make the moves at to hire jack and bring in players at trade deadline first off …
Jeter’s group came in and had to clean up the mess Loria ? what mess?
Christian Yelich, ( mind you hade till end of 2021 with club option), Marcell Ozuna ( only trade i supported cause zac) j t realmuto are all mess to you. like zac ..
$250 million range. The Marlins can’t afford that in our market. ok but as you say marlins could not afford catcher J.T. Realmuto and Christian Yelich two they should keep. no one would show up . when owners made 44 million in 2018 cause of revue sharing and Disney deal. plus it dont explain why they keep starlin castro and give 30 million to yankees in trade. ? what mess you are talking about? unless you ran out of patience loria.
in 4 year of owning marlins i am to have patience with 3 n.l. east last place . under loria 14 year 4 last place in n.l east .. try to turn my hope to patience not working.. you patience is not fun .. what should i have patience? cant say 2020. for any team not in ws . no one know what was going . only real wins was marlins betting cubs.
Mjm117
Metsfan22 is that you?
MarlinsFanBase
Exactly what I’m thinking. This might be our fan base’s version of @MetsFan22, but it’s clear he’s not a Marlins fan. He has his stuff all wrong, and posts like a 12-year old…while trying to tell me about Loria and how the 2003 Marlins were built.
Let’s see 2003 Marlins:
C-Pudge = Okay, Loria’s GM brought him in
1B – D-Lee = Dombrowski
2B – Castillo = Dombrowski
SS – Gonzalez = Dombrowski
3B – Lowell = Dombrowski
LF = Miggy = Dombrowski
CF – Pierre = Loria’s GM using Preston Wilson and Charles Johnson who were Dowmbrowski parts
RF – Encarnacion = using Ryan Dempster who was Dombrowski’s part, and trade forced on Marlins after original deal that didn’t include Encarnacion under Loria was rejected by MLB for the integrity of the game,
SPs: Beckett = Dombrowski; Burnett = Dombrowski; Penny = Dombrowski; Pavano = Loria using Cliff Floyd who was Dombrowski’s part, and again part of the original trade rejected by MLB for the integrity of the game. Willis = Loria’s GM using Alfonseca who again was Dombrowski’s part.
RPs: Looper = Dombrowski; Urbina = Loria’s GM added using prospect and future stud 1B Adrian Gonzalez who was a Dombrowski part.
I think this covers it for this uninformed troll/idiot.
Chemo850
Let Trevor Bauer back on the mound already damn it! That chick is getting her case picked apart piece by piece. It’s becoming painstaking obvious that the dude is innocent based on the chick’s own text messages….What a publicity joke.
Cosmo2
Still takes incredibly questionable moral character to engage in the behavior he engaged in, consensual or not.
Chemo850
I don’t disagree. However, I’ve had SEVERAL women ask me to do much worse than what he did and I always object. Let’s be honest, there’s a reason why 50 shades is iconic, and it’s not because of dudes. But seeing as the primary issue with the story hinges on consent, it’s time to let him play again as we already know it was consensual. It’s nobody’s business if two weirdos went overboard at home. She doesn’t get to cry victim several encounters later.