With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror and a little more than six weeks remaining in the regular season, plenty of front offices are turning their attention towards the upcoming offseason. The first notable decision for many clubs will be to decide whether to tag one or more of their top impending free agents with a qualifying offer.
As a reminder, the qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer teams can make to certain impending free agents. The precise value of the QO has yet to be calculated, but it’s determined as the average salary of the game’s 125 highest-paid players. Last season, the QO value was set at $18.9MM. If the player accepts the offer, he returns to his current team on that one-year deal. If he rejects, his previous team would receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere.
Last season, six players (George Springer, Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Kevin Gausman and Marcus Stroman) received qualifying offers. Gausman and Stroman accepted the QO, while Realmuto and LeMahieu re-signed with their current clubs as free agents. The Reds and Astros received compensatory picks (used on Jay Allen and Chayce McDermott, respectively) when Bauer and Springer departed.
The collective bargaining agreement prohibits a player from being tagged with a qualifying offer multiple times in his career. (A list of every active big leaguer who has previously received a QO is available here). Similarly, in order to be eligible, the player must have spent the entire preceding season on the same team. Players traded midseason cannot be tagged with a QO.
With the majority of the 2021 season in the books, we can take a look at the upcoming free agent class to predict which players might wind up receiving qualifying offer this winter.
Locks
- Carlos Correa, Freddie Freeman, Clayton Kershaw, Robbie Ray, Carlos Rodón, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story
This group is fairly straightforward, as there’s very little chance any of these players would accept a qualifying offer. Correa, Seager and Freeman all have MVP-caliber upside and are locks to pull in long-term deals this winter. Semien didn’t receive a QO from the A’s after a down year in 2020, took a pillow contract with the Jays for almost the value of the QO ($18MM), and has essentially replicated his 2019 form that earned him a third place finish in AL MVP voting. He should find a big multi-year deal this time around.
Story is having a bit of a down year, but there’s no doubt the Rockies will make him a qualifying offer after not trading him at the deadline. Nick Groke of the Athletic wrote this week that Colorado hasn’t given up hope of convincing him to sign a long-term extension, but that seems unlikely given Story’s own bewilderment he wasn’t moved to a contender this summer. Whether Story is willing to return to Denver or not, he’ll receive a QO.
Kershaw, Ray and Rodón will be among the top pitchers on the market. Kershaw has spent the past couple months on the injured list due to forearm soreness, but he’s expected back in September and is in the midst of another fantastic season. So long as he’s healthy, he’s a lock for a QO. Ray and Rodón both had to settle for one-year deals after poor 2020 seasons, but they’ve each been among the best pitchers in the American League this year.
Likely
- Michael Conforto, Jon Gray, Yusei Kikuchi, Eduardo Rodríguez, Noah Syndergaard, Chris Taylor, Justin Verlander
Over the past two seasons, Taylor has somewhat quietly been one of the game’s top 25 qualified hitters by measure of wRC+ and he’s versatile enough to cover any non-catcher position on the diamond. He’s not a true everyday player at any one spot and he’s making contact at a career-worst rate this season, so he falls just short of being an absolute lock for a QO. But the Dodgers would be as willing as any team to shoulder a significant one-year salary were Taylor to accept, and his body of work should be sufficient to warrant a multi-year deal regardless.
The Mets’ players in this group are two of the more interesting free agents in the class. Conforto entered the season looking like a lock for a QO and seemingly having a chance at landing nine figures with a strong platform year. He missed a month with injury, though, and hasn’t made anywhere near his typical level of impact at the plate. He’s shown some life over the past few weeks, and between his track record and age (28), Conforto still seems a good bet to land a long-term deal.
Syndergaard was a top-of-the-rotation starter at his peak, but he hasn’t pitched since 2019 because of Tommy John surgery. He’s eyeing a September return — likely in relief, given his dwindling time to build up arm strength — and his late-season form will obviously be critical to his market. The Mets should run one of the higher payrolls in the league, and Syndergaard has the upside to be an ace if healthy, so New York still seems more likely than not to make the offer.
Similarly, Verlander has essentially missed two full seasons because of his own Tommy John procedure. That’s a scary development for a pitcher who’ll be 39 on Opening Day 2022, but he was still every bit an ace when we last saw him in 2018-19. The Astros are a win-now club that runs high payrolls, so Verlander accepting a QO wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. If he declines and signs elsewhere, Houston would recoup some much-needed draft compensation after losing their past two first-round picks as punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.
Colorado reportedly showed even less interest in trading Gray than they did with Story at the deadline. There’s apparently mutual interest about working out a multi-year extension, and the QO could serve as a temporary measure to keep Gray in Denver while the Rockies and Gray’s representatives work on a long-term deal.
Rodríguez has bounced back to take the ball every fifth day this year after a scary bout with myocarditis cost him all of 2020. His ERA’s pushing 5.00, but his peripherals are far better than that bottom line run prevention and the southpaw has an established track record of mid-rotation production.
The Mariners are facing a difficult decision regarding Kikuchi, as MLBTR’s Steve Adams explored last month. Seattle must decide whether to exercise a package deal of four successive club options at $16.5MM apiece (essentially a four-year, $66MM extension) this winter. If the Mariners don’t exercise their four-year option, Kikuchi has a $13MM player option to return to Seattle for 2022. If both parties decline their ends, the 30-year-old would hit free agency this offseason, although the M’s could then tag Kikuchi with a qualifying offer.
Given that Kikuchi will only be a free agent if he passes on a $13MM player option, the Mariners would likely make him a QO worth a few million dollars more if it comes to that — either with the expectation he’ll decline in search of a longer-term deal, or with the hope he accepts and Seattle can keep him in the fold next season without committing themselves to the additional three years of guaranteed money.
Possible
The Giants have plenty of payroll space this offseason and seem likely to try to keep most of this season’s core together. Belt has been one of the sport’s most productive offensive players on a rate basis over the past two years. But he’s also 33 years old, has a long injury history and is striking out at the highest rate of his career.
San Francisco bought low on DeSclafani over the winter after he had a tough 2020 season with the Reds. He’s bounced back to post a very strong 3.26 ERA, although his peripherals are closer to average and he’s benefitted from opponents’ .257 batting average on balls in play. The Giants will likely see 4/5 of their starting rotation hit free agency this winter, so they could be eager to bring DeSclafani back, even if that comes via a lofty 2022 salary.
Morton has had another productive season in his first year as a Brave, but his previous two teams (the Astros in 2018 and the Rays in 2020) let him reach free agency without making a qualifying offer despite his consistently strong track record. That’s presumably due to concerns about his past injury history and age. He’ll turn 38 this winter and might check his potential earning power by limiting himself to teams in the Southeastern part of the country — as he reportedly did last offseason. That could inspire the Braves to pass on a QO, but Morton continually reels off above-average performances, and this is an Atlanta front office that has been eager to dole out hefty single-year salaries for key veteran upgrades in recent years.
Iglesias looks like the top impending free agent reliever (assuming the White Sox exercise their option over Craig Kimbrel). He’s sporting an ERA under 3.00 for the fifth time in his six seasons since moving to the bullpen, and he’s never had a single-season SIERA above 3.55. Home runs have been an issue, but Iglesias gets above-average results year in and year out and has some of the best strikeout and walk numbers in the game in 2021.
Long Shots
The Giants hold a $22MM club option (with a $3MM buyout) over Posey’s services for next season. If the front office is willing to commit him a significant salary, they’ll just exercise the option rather than going the QO route. Indeed, they’re reportedly planning to do exactly that (or to potentially pursue a multi-year extension with the franchise icon). Either way, there’s no real reason to involve the qualifying offer here.
Canha would be a very plausible qualifying offer candidate on many teams. He’s been a well above-average hitter and overall performer three years running and is generally one of the game’s more underrated players. The A’s, though, didn’t make a QO to either of Semien or Liam Hendriks last season. Canha’s a Bay Area native, and his age (33 in February) will cap the length of offers he receives from other clubs. Given that, it’s not hard to envision him accepting a QO if offered. The A’s, who perennially run low payrolls and will have a loaded class of arbitration-eligible players this winter, don’t seem likely to take that risk.
Wainwright has had a fantastic 2021 season, and the Cardinals figure to be motivated to keep the franchise icon in St. Louis in some capacity. But that also looked to be true after his strong 2020 campaign, and Wainwright only wound up landing a one-year, $8MM deal. He’d be well-deserved in demanding a raise over that sum to return next season, but it remains to be seen if the Cardinals would be willing to chance more than doubling his salary — particularly if they feel Wainwright’s motivated to remain in St. Louis rather than pursue the highest possible offers in free agency.
Kluber signed an $11MM deal with the Yankees last offseason after back-to-back seasons wrecked by injury. He pitched well through ten starts but has been out since late May with a shoulder strain. Kluber’s nearing a return to action, but his missing nearly three months only adds to prior concerns about his ability to handle a significant workload at this stage of his career.
Kim, García and Wood are all having strong 2021 seasons and could plausibly land solid multi-year deals this winter. Each has enough question marks that their teams don’t seem especially likely to offer a salary in the range of the qualifying offer, though. Kim doesn’t miss many bats; García has had extreme highs and lows throughout his career; Wood has a checkered injury history. García’s contract contains a $12MM club option that vests into a mutual option if he reaches 492 plate appearances this season. If that option doesn’t vest, the Brewers would obviously have no incentive to decline the option only to make a qualifying offer at a higher price point.
Opt-Out Clauses
Each of Arenado (six years, $179MM), Castellanos (two years, $34MM) and Martinez (one year, $19.35MM) has significant guaranteed money remaining on their contracts but can opt out of those deals this winter. Arenado and Castellanos would be locks to reject qualifying offers if they trigger their opt-out provisions, since they’d be foregoing bigger guarantees to test the market.
Martinez’s player option is of similar enough value to the projected value of the qualifying offer that he could plausibly trigger the opt-out but then accept a QO. Even if that proved to be the case, the Red Sox would probably be happy to keep him in the middle of the lineup for another season.
Ineligible
- Javier Báez (midseason trade), Kris Bryant (midseason trade), Alex Cobb (previous QO), Nelson Cruz (previous QO/midseason trade), Danny Duffy (midseason trade), Eduardo Escobar (midseason trade), Kevin Gausman (previous QO), Kendall Graveman (midseason trade), Zack Greinke (previous QO), Kenley Jansen (previous QO), Starling Marte (midseason trade), Anthony Rizzo (midseason trade), Max Scherzer (previous QO/midseason trade), Kyle Schwarber (midseason trade), Marcus Stroman (previous QO)
Kim is going to be a steal for whoever signs him, i believe
I agree, if he could go over 5 Innings consistently I’d offer him a QO. But I doubt he can or at least the cards won’t let him.
Jon Gray and CJ Cron should be in the “locks.” If I’m the A’s I QO Mark Canha as well.
Cron was our last cut from the Long Shots. The Rockies obviously have a ton of affinity for certain players that doesn’t always match up with broad consensus, but we couldn’t talk ourselves into a team that has spent less than $2M in MLB free agency over the past two years combined QO’ing a player who settled for a minor league deal last offseason.
Well what are the Rockies supposed to do? They didn’t trade Cron when they had the chance and losing a productive player for nothing is like the worst thing that can possibly happen to a non-contender.
I think they probably should’ve traded Cron, but I don’t think it follows that because they didn’t trade Cron, they now have to QO him. They could’ve appreciated the value he brings in the clubhouse over whatever returns they were getting offered, wanted an extra couple months this summer to try to negotiate a lower-value extension, etc.
Cron would be a lock to accept a QO. He’s set to make around 2 years and 9M$ per via FA.
@Anthony Franco having Cron in the clubhouse for two extra months has no value and CJ Cron isn’t the type of player you trade for (or refuse to trade away) just so you can have two extra months to extend him (although really no player is).
I agree with your second point, not as convinced as you seem to be about there being ‘no value’ to keeping him around. But regardless, I’m not the one who made that call. As I said, I would’ve tried to trade him if I were in the Rockies’ front office.
@mrkinsm If they weren’t ok with him accepting they should have traded him.
Well yeah, they probably should have traded him. But perhaps no one offered them what they thought he was worth to them. Or at least not enough to warrant losing an additional 3 months of his production. Like Anthony pointed out, the guy had to sign a minor league contract with a big leage invite this offseason and he isn’t exactly tearing it up away from Coor’s – not a lot of playoff teams in need of 1Bman either.
Wouldn’t be the first time a team didn’t trade someone they should have.
@mrkinsm 2 months of his production is worth nothing to the Rockies. If anything it hurts them because it hurts their draft position. If the Rockies could have gotten so much as a used jock strap for Cron they should have taken it. Unless they intend to go to the QO.
@Anthony Franco fWAR says that having Cron on the roster for the last two months of the season will win the Rockies 0.85 extra games. That won’t be enough to get them into the playoffs. And as for the idea that having him in the clubhouse for two extra months will rally the team to play better even after he is gone, I am going to need to see something empirical before I’ll believe that one.
@Remove I can think of things that are worse than losing Cron for nothing and paying him $19m for one year is one of them.
Anyway, we’ve been through this already. Yes, the Rockies FO is a bunch of morons. Yes, not trading Cron was a colossal mistake on their part. But extending him a qualifying offer would just be compounding that mistake. Your argument is basically the sunk cost fallacy on display.
Cron is worth less than half of the QO. Rockies aren’t going to extend him one because he’ll accept it, and will be worthless because nobody is going to trade for a platoon 1B who’s making nearly $20 million in 2022. They lose him for nothing now, or they lose him and $19 million next year.
@mlb1225 You previously said the Pirates HAD to trade Mark Melancon back in 2016. If they had to trade him when they were 3 games back of a Wild Card spot then the Rockies definitely had to trade Cron when they were 14 games back of a Wild Card spot. The QO is the only reason not to do that.
The Rockies will not extend a QO to Cron.
@gbs42 Then they must trade him.
It’s too late to trade him. If they want to bring him back, they’ll be able to re-sign him for much less than ~$19M.
I didn’t say that back in 2016, I didn’t even make an account until 2017. Yeah, they had to trade him then. Betting on a 2nd Wild Card spot isn’t the best of moves. Plus for a few years, the return looked outstanding. Look, I’m not disagreeing that the Rockies missed their chance by not trading Cron at the deadline or before. They should’ve traded him. Rockies missed their opportunity. It is what it is and you move on. You don’t invest more rescoures into something that isn’t worth it.
What I’m saying that they’ll be more in the hole by offering him a QO than not offering him a QO. It’s like what Jimthegoat said. You are in this sunk cost fallacy. By definition it is the idea that a company or organization (in this case, the Rockies) is more likely to continue a project (aka offering Cron a QO) they have already invested time/money into even when continuning is not the best thing to do (because Cron isn’t worth the QO and by offering him it, his trade value goes into the negatives). This is the exact argument everyone has tried to make toward you.
Also, we’re comparing 2016 Mark Melancon, arguably the best closer in baseball at the time, to 2021 C.J. Cron, a 1B limited hitter who for most of his career, has been nothing better than a solid platoon bat. and is currently struggling outside of Coors. The argument isn’t the same. One would fetch a strong return. The other gets a PTBNL, maybe a top 60 organization prospect at most.
You’re assuming those are the only two possibilities. What if nobody offered anything to the Rockies worth accepting? The Brewers were probably the only team with a hole to fill at 1B and then they acquired Tellez. Can’t trade a player to a team that isn’t looking for a 1B
@mlb1225 If betting on a 2nd Wild Card spot when you are 3 games back of it isn’t the best of moves, then betting on one when you are 14 games back of one is THE (singular) worst move. And the only reason not to trade Cron is if you are either going for that Wild Card spot or intend to QO him.
And it doesn’t matter at all if Mark Melancon had more trade value 5 years ago than CJ Cron did this year. PTBNL’s/lottery ticket type prospects have value too (see Fernando Tatis Jr or Yordan Alvarez). And CERTAINLY more value than the nothing the Rockies now stand to get for Cron if they don’t QO him.
@Crewfan620 You’re telling me the Rockies couldn’t find a taker for a guy on pace for a 2.5 WAR season with a 128 OPS+ this season who is making either the league minimum or $1m this year? (sources differ on Cron’s salary for 2021) And contenders trade for guys that ostensibly don’t fill needs all the time. Take my Padres and Jake Marisnick for instance.
You’re still missing the point. Nobody said they should keep him at the deadline. Nobody said it was a good idea to not trade him. Heck, imo, they should have taken whatever they could’ve gotten, especially if they recieved any last minute offers. But sunk cost is sunk cost. It was not a good idea that they kept him. NOBODY is arguing that. Sure, a PTBNL or lotto ticket prospect has more value than losing him for nothing. But QO’ing him is even worse than letting him go for nothing. Not only are you down $19 million, but the chances of losing him for nothing are even greater than they were before. Nobody is going to trade for a $19 million platoon 1B.
This is the argument everyone is trying to make: PTBNL/lotto prospect>losing him for nothing>offering him a QO
Get out of this sunk cost fallacy.
The idea that you HAVE to trade a player on an expiring contract for whatever you can get (because something, anything is supposedly better than nothing) is something fans believe in, not GMs. There is value in simply fielding a better team, even in a lost season, rather than tossing away a good player on the off chance the scrub you get back turns out to be something. If the offers out there aren’t worth it, they aren’t worth it.
@Cosmo2 Tell us, what exactly is it that the Rockies get by “simply fielding a better team” for the last two months of 2021 besides hurting their own draft position? And fWAR says that Cron wins the Rockies 1 more game down the stretch, best case scenario. Who cares about one extra win in a lost season?
@mlb1225 Cosmo2 Sure said the Rockies should keep him at the deadline. And CJ Cron is not a “sunk cost” considering he’s on pace for a 2.7 WAR season.
Rather than a QO, they could simply work out a market rate extension with him like Detroit did with Schoop after not trading him at the deadline.
C’mon man, not this nonense again. Nobody is giving Cron a Qualifying Offer, despite your logic.
@mlb1225, Comso2, etc. – At this point, the biggest sunk cost is your time writing these replies because your comments are falling on deaf ears. Valiant efforts, however, so I applaud you for trying.
What do the Rockies get by simply fielding a better team? They get to field a better team… also they don’t gain the reputation as a team that will take anything over nothing in trades, thus killing their ability to negotiate in such situations in the future. Your idea is very short sighted and undervalues the idea of simply fielding a better team in the present.
He wasn’t that at the deadline. He was hovering around 110 wRC+ and had some minor injuries. He’s a poor fielder and is limited to first base. The only competitive team desperate for a 1B, Milwaukee, grabbed Tellez very cheap. Rizzo was available for anyone who fancied a big upgrade (you can tell how bad the 1B market was because Rizzo was acquired by a team that didn’t need one at all). There was zero market. And in any case, Cron wouldn’t be one of those guys the Rockies irrationally hang onto, since he’s new to them. And they have multiple other options for the position (as does everyone).
Well, some fans, the geeks on sites like this.
@Kamkid They could have signed him for market rate if they traded him. Nice try tho.
@Cosmo2
“They get to field a better team…”
Like I said, Cron only wins them one extra game down the stretch, best case scenario. Who cares?
“also they don’t gain the reputation as a team that will take anything over nothing in trades, thus killing their ability to negotiate in such situations in the future.”
There is no evidence that taking what you can get for your pending FA’s when you aren’t contending negatively effects what teams will offer for your future trade chips. In fact, all the evidence we do have says the opposite. If the Rockies have a player other teams want and they try to lowball the Rockies, someone else will outbid them and they’ll have to answer to their fans why they didn’t get that player when they had the chance.
“Your idea is very short sighted and undervalues the idea of simply fielding a better team in the present.”
Again, there is no value to the Rockies in fielding a better team in the present. And Cron only makes them maybe 1 win better.
There is always a value in fielding a better team at the present. That’s the point you are missing. Especially when the trade off is the proverbial “bag of balls”. Fans pay to see games. They deserve better than the attitude and ideas you are putting forth…. and there’s the matter of leverage future negotiations, which your plan of desperation and quitting harms.
@Cosmo2…
“There is always a value in fielding a better team at the present.”
Not when you aren’t contending there isn’t.
“Fans pay to see games.”
No fan that wouldn’t have gone to a Rockies game anyway is going to go because they have CJ Cron. Not one.
“… and there’s the matter of leverage future negotiations, which your plan of desperation and quitting harms.”
There is no evidence that Taki g what you can get for a player like CJ Cron when you aren’t contending hurts your leverage in future negotiations. In fact all the evidence we do have says the opposite.
Present your “evidence”. I’m utilizing common sense. If I’m negotiating with you I’m offering you less than I’d offer others now that I know you’ll take anything rather than walk away and allow your fans to enjoy watching a good player.
@Cosmo2 Common sense suggests that if you try to lowball me, I’ll just sell to someone else who is offering more. Even if the other team has to trade a player as the Rockies did with CJ Cron you still have to be the highest bidder to be able to get him.
@Cosmo2 Your hypothetical only works if you are the only other team I am allowed to negotiate with. But you aren’t. There are 28 others.
The worst thing that can possibly happen is throwing away nearly twenty million dollars that could buy the Rockies a far, far better player than Cron on the free agent market.
If the Rockies give Cron a QO, he absolutely takes it. (After being non-tendered two straight years, book it.)
Then he becomes an untradable expensive one year contract for a likely non-contender. Is that any better?
Canha would certainly accept a QO this winter, it’s highly unlikely he makes much more than 9M$ per this winter either.
@mrkinsm If not from Canha where else are they going to get a guy who has averaged 3.36 WAR per 162 games played over the last 4 seasons for ~1/$19m or less?
33 year old 1Bman/Corner OF who have a career sub .450 SLG% and have never accumulated 130 games in a season aren’t worth much as FA’s, doesn’t matter what his WAR totals are. Can he / will he get more than 9M$ per? Perhaps, but I’ll bet an increase in salary per year beyond that figure cuts a year or two off his desired next contract and at 33 he should be just as focused on length of contract as he is on AAV.
Why on earth would the Rockies QO cron. If he gets a 10m one year deal I’ll be shocked.
Because it’s the only way not trading him makes any sense
The Rockies probably didn’t plan/aren’t planning on offering him a QO. I think it’s more plausable that the Rox didn’t get back a fair offer for a player (albiet low value one) rather than the plan all along to be to offer him around 4x more than his actual value. Them offering him a QO is worse than them not trading him,
@mlb1225 A literal bag of baseballs would have been a fair offer for CJ Cron. There is no benefit to keeping him for the Rockies. If anything he’s hurting them because he’s hurting their draft position.
@Remove But what about a figurative bag of baseballs?
@Goatboy Yeah, that too.
Remove, you keep on with this “bag of balls” idea but it just isn’t true. GMs don’t generally make bad trades on the principal that “they might as well”. If the trade isn’t there, it’s not there. YOU might think that any trade is better than just losing a player at seasons end, but obviously professional GMs don’t.
@Cosmo2 It’s not a bad trade if the guy you are giving up has literally no value to your team as Cron to the Rockies. What exactly is it that you think will happen to the Colorado Rockies if they don’t have CJ Cron on their team for the last two months of this season?
@Remove, you’ve twisted yourself into knots and backed yourself into a corner on something you do know is not going to happen.
The Rockies will have purposefully tossed away a decent player for nothing, ie they lose Cron for this season. They lose the ability to look like a team that has sound negotiation standings in the future. They gain nothing by adding a “bag of balls” by the way.
@Cosmo2 They are already to going to lose a decent player for nothing when Cron becomes a FA this offseason. And they already don’t look like a team that has sound negotiation standings. This would have helped that reputation, not hurt it.
Trading something for anything you can get sends the message of desperation. It kills your ability to negotiate from a position of leverage in future situations. (ie, this team is gonna trade this player no matter the offer, so lower your offer to a “bag of balls”; they’ve proven they’ll take it). You’re entitled to your opinion, but it’s a defeatist and desperate one.
@Cosmo2…
“Trading something for anything you can get sends the message of desperation. It kills your ability to negotiate from a position of leverage in future situations.”
Do you have any actual proof of this? Or is it just something you like to say? If you lower your offer, some other team will come in with a better offer, you won’t get the player you need and you will have to answer to your fans why you didn’t just pay the price. And it’s not as if “the price” for two months of CJ Cron would have been all that daunting.
The entire point of this conversation is that there was NOT a bidding war for Cron. Clearly the Rockies disagree with your assessment but I guess you know much better. You should apply for a job there, see how that goes.
@Cosmo2…
“The entire point of this conversation is that there was NOT a bidding war for Cron.”
There might not have been a bidding war for Cron but there might be a bidding war for their future trade chips. Taking what they can get for Cron isn’t going to have any effect at all on what other teams do or don’t offer for their future trade chips.
“Clearly the Rockies disagree with your assessment but I guess you know much better.”
It’s not my assessment. Nobody except you agrees with them not trading CJ Cron.
“You should apply for a job there, see how that goes.”
Leave the snark to those of us who are good at it buddy.
@removepitcherwins
I’ll be here to remind you off how much of an a$$ you were and how certain you thought you were when Cron inevitably doesn’t receive a QO.
They should have traded him but this is the Rockies we are talking about. The worst run club in baseball!
@Mrtwotone2 Not sure how I was being an “a$$.” Teams that aren’t contending can’t have productive players reach UFA so QOing Cron has to happen. That’s all I’m saying and so many people get triggered it’s insane!
Cron wasn’t traded because, fair or not, players with his skill set are not as highly valued as they once were. They have value in the sense they’ll land a MLB job, still make several million, but they’re considered fungible.
Cron has been on five teams in five seasons, has been non-tendered and has basically gone begging for jobs for a couple years running, even though he’s been productive every year. Have bat, will travel. Being a year older, in his 30s, and now having those always confusing Coors home/road splits (he’s slugging .330 on the road?) does not make him more valuable.
The reason he wasn’t traded was the same reason he had to wait until basically camps opened this year before signing a minor league deal. Interest was low. The Yankees, btw, we’re also trying to deal Luke Voit at the deadline and he’s still on the Yankees, which may turn out to be a good thing for them. Voit has the second highest OPS+ of all MLB 1B’man since he became a regular in 2018. The market is tepid.
So the Rockies tested the market for a deal, and were not happy with the warm body being offered. So they kept Cron knowing they can still negotiate a new deal with him for 2022. Maybe even offer him a 2/20. He’ll take it.
@lordd99 The Rockies didn’t have to keep Cron to negotiate a new deal with him if that’s what they wanna do. Teams sign players they traded away all the time.
Rockies have several first base prospects coming, including a guy in Colton Welker who got suspended for 2/3 of the season but is now murdering AAA. And there is a first rounder behind him in Michael Toglia. They’re not winning anything next year and have massive needs in the bullpen and outfield. There’s zero chance they’ll risk a $20m salary on him.
Gray’s a given though. He’s been so good.
Technically Avisail García could only be issued an qo assuming the Brewers decline his club option
Thanks for pointing this out! I’ve updated the post.
That club option actually vests into a mutual option if he gets to 550 plate appearances this year, so he could reach that playing time threshold and then decline his end. He needs 135 plate appearances over the team’s last 40 games (3.375 per game) to get there. That’s doable but certainly not a lock.
Albert Pujols???
Willing to go out on a limb and say, after careful analysis, Anthony probably thought it less likely than not. But some real number-crunching.
Ineligible. The player has to spend the entire season with his current team.
LMAO, do you watch baseball? Wow! He was also traded, but who in their right mind would give him one even if they could….
Ummmm…Pujols wasn’t traded.
I believe the rule is technically that the player spent the entire season on the teams roster. It’s referred to as a trade clause because in theory a mid season DFA/release would mean a player isn’t good enough to be making the QO salary.
@pt57 It doesn’t matter if he was traded or cut and then signed with the Dodgers as FA. The point is he didn’t spend the whole season with them.
If Alex Wood finishes the season healthy and pitches well over the last 6 weeks, I’d say he’s a near lock to be offered a QO. And I’m not so certain he’d accept it either, this might be his last big chance to get a long term contract via FA. If I’m the Giants and I like him (sometimes you just never know) I’d be offering him a 3 year, ~36M$ deal with incentives or possibly a vesting option right now.
And If I were the Giants I’d probably offer a similar contract to Disco….3 years, ~36M$ deal.
Wood has pitched over 20 games and has an ERA over 4 and bwar stands at 0.5.
Is that really worthy of a QO?
I feel like he wouldn’t get $18 million AAV anywhere else.
His injury history isn’t encouraging either.
Of course he’s not going to get 18M$ AAV on a long term deal via FA. The question is how many more millions can he get over a longer term contract, and is it enough for him to forego a 1 year deal. If I’m his agent I’d worry he’d take the QO, then get injured again, and be in a bad place FA wise twelve months from now – so I’d advise him to decline the QO and take a longer term deal via FA that would certainly pay him less than 18M$ per; which is why I said 3 years and ~12M$ per would probably be close to my offer if I were the Giants. Do it now, don’t let him get to the Qo point.
I don’t think any team would give him $18 million for 1 year, even without draft pick compensation attached.
I’ve been wrong before though.
The pitching options look pretty good this year in comparison to Wood.
There is no way Wood gets the QO
Wainwright is making 8M$ this season, not 6M$….fwiw. Whatever he ends up making this winter it’s probably going to be pretty close to the QO, maybe ~16M$ to pitch in 2022. If the Cardinals don’t think he wants to play for anyone other than them I’d forego the QO.
Whoops, thanks. Went back and looked at the re-signing article and pulled our projected salary from last year as opposed to his actual deal. Fixed it in the post.
Nah, there’s no way he gets over $12M. No team is paying more than that to a 40-year-old starting pitcher with a significant injury history.
which starting pitcher are you talking about there @Lanidrac?
Wainwright, of course. He’s about to turn 40 years old, he’s a starting pitcher, and he’s missed the entire 2011 season, most of the 2015 season, and significant portions of other seasons to injuries in the past.
Unless Conforto goes on a tear I say no. He’s a decent outfielder but not a star. He was first round pick so gets preferential treatment.
Conforto is another tough one, due to the down year. He’d probably accept it because I don’t see many teams giving him a huge long term deal with the worries that this year is not an aberration. It might simply come down to how he performs over the last 6 weeks and how much the Mets believe he’ll bounce back next season.
I see Conforto and Thor as being the same situation they had with Stroman last year. They did QO Stroman and Thor and Conforto have better standings with the org than Stroman did this time last year.
A deal like mccullers got makes sense.
Let Conforto walk and offer Syndergaard the QO. Personally I believe they should extend Syndergaard to a 4 year 65 million dollar deal since his value is at his lowest right now and hes injury prone. Conforto is barely above replacement level and wants to be paid like a superstar. Would rather the Mets move Mcneil to right field and let Conforto go somewhere else
They could extend the offer to Syndergaard, but he won’t accept it.
I’ll argue against “he gets preferential treatment because he was a first round pick”. I think you have the causality backwards: because the Mets believe in his talent (and thus are willing to give him more rope to develop that talent), they made him a first round pick.
NFL fans issue statements like yours all the time, without any real evidence. We know that a team that makes a major draft investment in a prospect sees good things in him, so logically the team will give that prospect more chances than normal because it believes there is more upside to unlock, even if it hasn’t shown itself enough yet. It’s perfectly justified, assuming that the team still believes in the player’s underlying talent.
I agree. Let me rephrase. It just appears past few years a lot of players are treated like superstars based on draft position and not talent. Or are looked at through rose colored glasses. They are an investment but sometimes a player is not as good as you want him to be.
Iglesias is an interesting one. He’s set to make 3 or 4 years and around ~12M$ per. Does a QO kill his ability to find that contract via FA? Good question.
One last comment, if I’m the Braves – I’m definitely offering a QO to Morton. What’s the worse that could happen? He accepts and you have him on a 1 year deal making 1 or 2M$ more than he would have made via FA. .
Dude’s a huge reason why they are still in the playoff hunt.
Chris Taylor continues to be the not-everyday player who plays every day.
A lock for a QO. The Dodgers know what they have in Taylor even if the rest of baseball doesn’t.
Chris Taylor is an interesting candidate.
For many teams he might not be worth $18 mil but his versatility has really saved LA.
He can bat and play anywhere in the lineup.
Another player whose team should try to extend him now, before they have to decide on a QO.
Chris Taylor is absolutely worth a QO, even if he only played one position.
Yeah and the injuries the Dodgers have sustained this year has made him look all the better.
Kind of strange to point out his having a career-worst contact rate, given he’s worth 3.3 WAR and has a 130 OPS+ despite that fact.
Also a great asset on the base paths. He’s just flat-out having his best season. The other good reason to offer him the QO is the Dodgers have nobody coming up who matches his skills.
Belt will get QO only because they hope he signs elsewhere…but tagging him would mean less likely any team would spend a draft pick for him.
Belt will NOT get QO
Wood will NOT get QO
DeSclafani is a lock for QO
If I were Atlanta, I’d definitely give Morton a QO.
Morton might simply retire if he doesn’t accept. So it might be a very low risk maneuver to offer him more one
Rodon is not a lock.
He has a long injury history, and is back on the IL this year with arm fatigue.
The White Sox would be risking Rodon signing it, and aside from killing financial flexibility, it would force Kopech back to the bullpen for another season.
If they keep Kimbrel and Hernandez, and Rodon doesn’t bounce back from his IL stint with ease, I think they let him walk.
Offer it, if he accepts, he’s still valuable as a trade option if they want to mint him (they don’t). A quality pitcher on a one year deal will have many teams calling.
…if they want to *trade* him.
I don’t think he’d be that valuable. About half the teams at minimum would likely have him off the board, because they aren’t contending or don’t mess with guys with arm issues.
From there, some teams would probably want to see what he does in Soring Taining at the very least before giving a prospect and 18 million for a one-hit wonder.
If he gets the tender, I’m certain he will sign it, because I doubt he’s getting more than a two-year offer anyway, and the White Sox will have to eat the cost and delay Kopech into the rotation another year.
Delaying Kopech may not be a big deal, but the team could use a DH, RF and possibly 2b. Rodon kills that option.
It really is a high-risk, medium-reward gamble. I doubt they take it.
The Gausman trade was last year. I thought it was only restricted if you traded for the player during the current season. Like how Cleveland couldn’t off Josh Donaldson the QO b/c he was a mid-season trade so the Braves signed him for 1/$23m and then put a QO on him which he declined and the Twins had to give up a pick to the Braves when they signed Donaldson.
read that wrong, never mind
What’s your question? Gausman can’t be offered a QO because he was offered (and accepted) one last year. The CBA stipulates a player can only be offered it once in his career. He hasn’t been traded since 2018.
How would Seattle lock themselves into four more years when it is four years of club options?
They’re technically club options but they all have to be exercised or declined at the same time this offseason. It’s basically the team equivalent of a player having to decide on an opt-out clause when he has multiple years remaining on the deal if he opts in.
I don’t see the Mets giving conforto a QO. They have cano coming back on the payroll at ~20m, syndergaard would be getting a $10m raise, they’re probably looking at re working DeGrom this off season, alonso starting arbitration, and a lot of players getting arb raises . The Mets need to rework their lineup and conforto played himself out of the equation this year.
I can’t see 15 players receiving a QO in this environment. One of the players in the “Likely” category that I think won’t get a QO is E-rod. Despite a dearth of pitching on the market, his extensive history of injuries and inconsistent performance does not warrant extending a $19MM deal.
Robbie and Marcus I personally apologize for having your career years wasted by the ineptitude of Charlie Montoyo please accept the offers and lead this team moving forward with a competent manager!!!
Agree 1000% , time for Charlie to take his bongos elsewhere.
Rodon signed a minor league contract after the White Sox non-tendered him and now he is a lock for a QO? I doubt it. You really think the White Sox want to gamble $15+ million more than he’s making this season that he won’t accept it?
Cron shouldn’t have been a last decision lock its a no-brainer the Rockies are not going to offer him one and risk paying him $17 million more than they are paying him now.
Given the uncertain nature of the CBA i imagine most teams will approach the QO with caution realizing that players may be more willing to accept it than in other years
When the Rockies didn’t trade Cron it should have been obvious that the QO is what they plan to do. Letting him reach UFA is unacceptable for the Rockies.
Giving Cron a 19M$, 1 year deal would be unacceptable for the Rockies.
Exactly and i imagine Cron is smart enough to know that he would not get that kind of money in free agency and that having the albatross of draft pick compensation attached to him would likely keep him a free agent untill after the draft. Cron is having a fine season but he is also a player playing for his 5th team in five years, this is not Freddie Freeman we are talking about. The Rockies will absolutely attach a QO to Story because is almost certain to reject it and even if he accepts it he is worth the money to them. Cron they literally dug out of the scrap bin at the beginning of training camp
@mrkinsm Well then they are between a rock and a hard place.
Why would the White Sox be upset if he accepted?
I don’t know that they would be upset but that would represent a 500% pay increase
So?
He’s not the same pitcher he was a year ago. Being locked into a one year commitment at below market value to a pitcher who is having one of the best seasons in the league is a good thing. It won’t be a problem though because they won’t be locked in. He’ll reject it. He’ll have a very active market.
Because they want to get Micheal Kopech into the rotation and Rodon would block that. He also would take away the teams ability to add a free agent else, since they have an owner who sets a tight budget with the team.
then you just deal Keuchel and you have tax space, a rotation spot, and Rodon.
Nobody wants an aging, declining fifth starter who is guaranteed 20 million for the next season.
A. Rodon didn’t sign a minor league deal. He signed a big league deal paying him 3M$ after being non-tendered because the White Sox weren’t willing to pay him his expected 6M$ salary via arbitration coming off two injured seasons. If he’s healthy, his 2021 season would indicate that he’d be worth a 1 year gamble even with the huge raise – he’s put up ALCY worthy #’s. Health in 6 weeks time is paramount to the decision.
B. I’ll bet more QO’s are given due to the CBA expiring after Thanksgiving.
Taylor and Gray are locks. No chance for Verlander.
Taylor maybe. Gray is probably 50/50
I’d agree Gray is 50/50 but only because he might well agree to an extension.
@seamaholic No one wants to extend with that joke of a team.
I just can’t see giving a guy like Robbie Ray a long term contract at or above the QO price. In his 7 full seasons, he’s had higher than 1.4 WAR only TWICE. Just because a guy has one great year is gonna fool some idiot GM into think he’s signing the next Sandy Koufax. Look at the years following Ray’s last good year. Could be a total nightmare for whoever signs him. Much the same applies to Rodon, who can’t seem to stay healthy for more than one season in a row.
I was a fan of Ray back in his younger days, but it’s become increasingly obvious to me that his year to yeat production is wild. you can say he’s found something with the PC in Toronto, and maybe that’s true, but far from proven. AJ Burnett found something in Pittsburgh, but lost it again after leaving, only to refind it upon returning. no gurantee he’ll remain as reliable outside of TOR, or even if he returns.
Even 2015-2019 Ray is probably worth $19M a year. He put up a sub-4 ERA through that period while staying pretty healthy, that doesn’t grow on trees. And he was 7th in Cy Young voting in 2017, and has one of the best career K/9 rates, and he throws the classic hard fastball and wicked slider, so it’s not like 2021 comes out of nowhere.
Gray is a fascinating case here. Im not as enamoured with him as most – his numbers aren’t as impressive since that great start. prevailing sentiment would be that the players want the draft pick compensation gone, but until we know otherwise, how does Gray stack up with the other candidates here to be worth giving up a pick for in a crowded SP market? beyond that, while COL seems intent on showing their fans they are still going for it, do they want to pay him out all that money, even just for one year? and while logic says Gray wants to get out of COL even just to see his numbers perk up, can he afford to pass up that guarantee with all the competition in the SP market? I was shocked Stroman got a QO last year and didnt think Gausman should have, and while I will admit I was wrong on both choices last year, I feel Gray’s an even worse candiate. to me, barring health, only the three in locks are true locks, and I think Thor is almost a lock, though I think that’s an exceedingly foolish move. maybe Cohen, not being that connected to Thor as the last regime, moves on. but even with just three QO SP, Gray is clearly the most inferior of those tagged, and not close to the best SP beyond the other three. I feel he has to sign if given the chance unless he really wants to bet on himself.
I wouldn’t assume Gray is perceived as a second tier guy. Front offices know about park effects. A certain ERA for Colorado is not the same as the same in San Francisco. And then there is his (relatively young) age.
I wouldn’t mind the Cardinals bringing Kim back on an $18M salary or so.
Man, Cory Seager in pinstripes would be a amazing
Here’s the storyline that the media really won’t write because it’s always interesting to attach every big free agent name to the Yankees. Agents love to play that game too for obvious reasons.
The Yankees will not sign any of the free agent SS’s. Gleyber will keep the spot warm for one more season and they’ll plan on Volpe taking over in 2023. They’ll direct the money elsewhere on the roster.
I know – you’re right. Volpe looks to be like a legit SS for the Yanks. Would you keep Rizzo over Voigt?
When, officially, does the current MLB/MLBPA contract expire? If its at the end of the WS, have they agreed to continue with the current rules for this off season? At what point do they not have an agreement?
December 1.
I will weigh in here, saying Rockies extend Cron for 2/$9m, Canha (imo one of the top 5 underrated players in the game) extends for 2/$24, and Taylor (probably THE most underrated/undervalued player in the game to most casual observers) extends for 2-3 years at whatever price point the Dodgers deem worthy. If there is going to be some “defined” parameters in the new CBA (floor/ceiling/etc) then even 2 teams like the Rockies and A’s get players locked up at reasonable cost. For the A’s, gives them a solid player who they continue to lean on, and for the Rockies, I think it depends on how much they like Cron over say, McMahon or Fuentes. I’m not familiar enough with their system to know if they have a 1B waiting in the wings.
They have several. It’s a strength of their system.
Colton Welker could possibly be ready to step in next season. Michael Toglia should be ready next season as well. There is no reason for the Rockies to spend big on Cron (or any other First Baseman) if for nothing other than satisfying MLB’s possible salaray floor if it actually becomes a thing
Lol Rockies extend Cron. Who do they think they are, the St. Louis Cardinals?
I think conforto and Thor are pretty easy calls for qo’s. Bad year and coming back from tj? They will both sign those pretty easily unless they don’t want to come back to the Mets.
@a dawg They are more attractive QO candidates than Stroman was a year ago.
Though Yusei Kikuchi had a very strong stretch he’s hit a rough patch at the wrong time. He’s been roughed up his last 7 games with a 6.35 era and 1.76 whip. Youch! Started after the All Star Break (he was an All Star & at that point deservedly so). He looks like he’s lost his confidence. I hope he finds it again. He wasn’t wonderful his two previous years. Unless he sets the world on fire for the rest of the season I’d be surprised if they extended it. It was fun watching him pitch when he’s on. Wish him success no matter what happens
Forget about Stephen Matz?