Much has changed since our last installment of these rankings back on June 10th. Six players signed extensions in lieu of free agency, none beyond Lance Lynn’s two-year, $38MM deal with the White Sox. Trevor Bauer has been removed from the rankings, as he remains on paid administrative leave after being accused of sexual assault.
Four players who might have been considered for qualifying offers were traded in July: Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, and Starling Marte. Those players are now ineligible for qualifying offers. Kevin Gausman, Marcus Stroman, Max Scherzer, Zack Greinke, and AJ Pollock are among those who are ineligible on account of having received one previously. The Rockies inexplicably retained Trevor Story at the trade deadline, so he will be subject to a qualifying offer.
As a reminder, these power rankings are based on my projection of the players’ earning power. Keep in mind that the current collective bargaining agreement expires on December 1, though that doesn’t necessarily mean free agency will be frozen.
1. Carlos Correa. Prior to this year, Correa had played 110+ games in a season with a 120 wRC+ exactly once, back in 2016. This year, Correa has avoided the regular injured list and is fourth among qualified shortstops with a 136 wRC+. Correa did go on the COVID-19 IL in July, but he missed only a week.
Just 27 years old in December, Correa also has youth on his side, and appears headed toward a monster free agent contract. The $340MM deals of fellow shortstops Fernando Tatis Jr. and Francisco Lindor will surely be a target.
2. Corey Seager. After getting hit by a pitch and suffering a broken right hand in mid-May, Seager missed two and a half months. Upon his return July 30th, the Dodgers had acquired another of the game’s top shortstops in Trea Turner. Turner has switched to second base as a member of the Dodgers, but serves as a strong option at shortstop for 2022 for L.A. Seager didn’t have much to say on the topic, but clearly his negotiating leverage took a hit with the Turner acquisition.
As for what Seager can control, he’s shown no ill effects from the broken hand. He’s got a stellar 134 wRC+ in 87 plate appearances since returning from the injury. Seager is only about five months older than Correa, so he too will be seeking a very long contract in excess of $300MM.
3. Kris Bryant. 19 games into his Giants career, Bryant’s solid season has continued. The Giants have enjoyed his versatility, playing Bryant at third base as well as all three outfield positions. He’s saying all the right things about the possibility of staying in San Francisco long-term, telling Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area, “It’s definitely enticing.” Even with a new deal for Brandon Crawford, the Giants have less than $36MM on the books for 2022, so they could certainly afford Bryant.
4. Trevor Story. Though Story expressed confusion at the Rockies’ decision not to trade him, he hasn’t let it affect him on the field. Since the trade deadline, Story sports a 147 wRC+ in 81 plate appearances. 29 in November, Story isn’t quite as young as Correa and Seager, but he’s still in good shape for a contract well beyond $100MM. There’s still a case to be made for Story above Bryant, and the Rockies’ shortstop has outplayed Bryant since June.
5. Freddie Freeman. Freeman has turned it on since June, posting a 151 wRC+ in 324 plate appearances. 32 in September, Freeman remains one of the best hitters in baseball. The Braves wisely held onto the 2020 NL MVP despite a 12% chance at the playoffs at the trade deadline, and now the club has a 77% chance according to FanGraphs. Braves fans continue to wonder why the club hasn’t hammered out a deal with their perennial All-Star.
6. Kevin Gausman. Gausman has scuffled as of late, with a 5.17 ERA and 10.6% walk rate in his last seven starts. However, he remains the prize pitcher of the free agent class, and he has seven regular season starts plus the playoffs to cement his free agent bona fides. Dating back to 2020, Gausman has a 2.94 ERA and and 30.4% strikeout rate in 205 2/3 innings for the Giants.
7. Marcus Semien. Semien joins this list for the first time, as he’s putting together his second MVP-caliber season within three years. Maybe his 53-game 2020 season was the fluke, and Semien really is one of the best players in the game. 31 in September, he’s a candidate for at least a strong five-year deal in free agency. Semien has played mostly second base this year in deference to Bo Bichette, but as a free agent he’ll be a consideration at both middle infield positions. Semien’s 5.2 WAR is only bested among position players by the incomparable Shohei Ohtani.
8. Marcus Stroman. Stroman, 30, ranks seventh among qualified NL starters with a 2.84 ERA in 145 1/3 innings. He succeeds on the strength of his home run prevention and solid control and is a candidate for a five-year deal. Stroman has shown no rust after opting out of the 2020 season.
9. Robbie Ray. Ray, with an identical WAR to Stroman at the moment, presents an interesting contrast. Ray’s 30.7% strikeout rate ranks second in the AL, coupled with a career-best 6.4 BB%. It’s truly shocking to see Ray with such a low walk rate, as he had baseball’s worst walk rate – by far – last year among those with at least 50 innings. He ranked the second-worst in that regard in 2019. While Toronto’s $8MM deal for Ray has turned into a masterstroke, the lefty will be very difficult to value as a 30-year-old free agent.
10. Nick Castellanos. With a 146 wRC+, Castellanos has been the seventh-best hitter in the NL this year. He sports a solid 121 mark since returning from a microfracture in his right wrist on August 5th. Castellanos, 30 in March, has the ability to opt out of the remaining two years and $34MM on his contract with the Reds after the season. He’ll almost certainly do that, and reject a qualifying offer from the Reds as well.
Honorable mentions
Max Scherzer, Carlos Rodon, Chris Taylor, Javier Baez, Michael Conforto, Starling Marte
Scherzer and Rodon in particular just missed making my top 10. Even at age 37, Scherzer could land a three-year deal in the $100MM range. But he could also seek something just above two years and $72MM, which would result in a new record for average annual value. Rodon is having a season for the ages after being non-tendered by the White Sox and then returning on a $3MM deal. However, he’s currently on the IL for shoulder fatigue, and even at age 29 he’ll be hard-pressed to find a five-year deal given his health history. Taylor, the Dodgers’ super-utility man, has a 133 wRC+ since the start of 2020 and will likely surprise many with the size of his next contract. Still, it figures to fall short of $100MM.
Correa’s numbers look great in 2017
Except the “games played” one.
Almost as good as Mookie Betts’ numbers in 2018…just sayin’
Interesting position the Blue Jays are in…. The young players are about to hit arbitration soon. Ray, and Semien are about to be free agents. They’re gonna have to pay Berrios. Maybe Atkins is already realizing how the Springer contract wasn’t a good idea after all.
Austin Martin could’ve played CF for you, or could’ve slide over at 2B next to Bo, and let Semien walk. Saving money while staying competitive is what it’s about. Payroll is about to sky rocket real soon in Toronto if they’re planning to stay competitive.
The Jays have $65MM on the books next year, and their only notable arb raises are to Berrios (Arb3), Stripling (Arb3), Teoscar (Arb2) and Vlad (Arb1). They’ve run up $165MM payrolls on multiple occasions in the past. The Springer deal really isn’t any sort of hindrance in 2022-23, and they’ll have both Ryu and Grichuk off the books after ’23. Their payroll outlook is pretty nice.
Appreciate it!
How much more in arbitration raises? $37M? But more importantly, Semien and Ray are their two best players (per bWAR). How much more to re-sign those two? The bidding has to, strangely enough, start at $40M for the two. Then they need to pay off Berrios the following year.
Jay’s have the money to spend
Still should have avoided the landmine that is Springer.
Why? The Jays are loaded financially and the fanbase is rabid when the team is good. They have to strike while the young talent is here. Waiting around for cheaper CF to emerge isn’t necessarily a better choice.
Springer is an iffy one I must say. When he has played tho he has been amazing as far as I’m concerned so if he plays 110 games in center and 35-45 as a DH next year I think there doing pretty good. Even tho Grichuks deal is a bit rich 30hr and slightly above average defense isn’t bad from a center fielder so he can play the 40-60 there George doesnt
Grichuk is streaky and in reality a bad hitter (OPS)–not really helpful.
He’s never in his career played over 89 in CF what makes you think he can play 110 games in CF?
Cubs will sign Correa to begin their new crop of talent. Put Correa at SS, Madrigal 2B, Hoerner in CF like he trialed a year or so ago, and you have Contreras behind the plate. Now the lineup doesn’t look so terrible with being strong up the middle of the diamond. All you need is some power bats in the corner outfield/infield spots, which aren’t hard to find this day in age.
Oh, and they’ll need like 8 pitchers, but other than that, they’d be in a good spot! 🙂
give me Scherzer over Ray or Stroman. those two are too inconsistent from year to year.
I am definitely not high on Ray as the writers on this site. He has inconsistent results that could look very bad on long term, high AAV deal.
Same. I had to make sure I was looking at his numbers correctly a couple of times because the writers on here go so crazy for him. He’s having a pretty good year and his underlying numbers look better, but he’s still on pace to be ~3.5fWAR (I know BBREF likes him better) pitcher and I wouldn’t be shocked to see some regression from him next year. Good middle of the order pitcher, but you’d think he was dominating based on how some of the writers here describe him.
Except he is dominating this year
Pretty good year? Wow, you just don’t follow MLB. He’s 1 or 2 for the Cy Young. His control is for real. Haters gonna hate I guess.
Same. Ray and/or Stroman can be great, if you’re getting the good versions. You never really know from game-to-game or year-to-year what you’re getting though. They’re also very easily less than mediocre at times. No thanks on seeing my favorite team pay big money for that. Max is the much better option, if you need pitching.
Stroman is rarely great; Ray can be any time out. TOTALLY different pitchers.
Pass on Scherzer. Never heard of an ace saying they can’t go on short rest in an elimination game in the playoffs.
Semien is criminally underrated by most. He is who I’d want for SS/2B, ahead of Correa (bc cost), Story (old, declining), Baez (too inconsistent w high k%). I’m not quite sure how to value Seager, but he is interesting too.
If $$ is truly not an issue for Cohen and the Mets, I’d love to see them pick up Semien (5/$140m?), jettison that cheater (Cano) to the moon, re-sign Stroman (5/$125m), and take a run at Scherzer (3/$100m).
Wishful thinking.
You’re not going to have a $300M payroll.
Who would’ve thought Robbie Ray would be a higher ranked FA than Javy Baez two years ago. How times have changed.
Why do you guys keep lumping Pollock in with this free agent class? He is signed through next season and has a player option The Following season.
Pollock can opt out after 2021 and still get $5M buyout if he has 1,000 PA in 2020-2021 or 1,450PA in 2019-21.
Realistically he’s not hitting those thresholds to get the buyout, assuming 2020 PA numbers aren’t prorated, and even then it’s unlikely he reaches either. Seems unlikely he opts out but he can
The 2020 numbers are prorated for the purposes of options like his. So he gets 567 PA for ’20 and needs another 86 this year to gain the ability to opt out and take a $5MM buyout.
If he thinks he can do better than a two-year $15MM contract he should opt out, which should be pretty easy given how he’s hit the last few years.
I stand corrected! I forgot about the prorated numbers for the shortened season.
I stand corrected as well. Although that seems “more fair”. I thought he had the opt out either way, it was a matter if he got the buyout too re: PA. But nevertheless, it seems likely he opts out, even if he wants to re-sign
Why would Trevor Story and his god awful splits command more money than Marcus Semien, a player leading baseball in XBH and also never misses a game?
Why would Trevor Story and his god awful splits be ranked higher than Freddy Freeman?
I’m with you here – of all the risky picks on this list Story is the biggest. I don’t know how a non-Colorado team can value what he’s worth.
Splits have nothing to do with it since every player that has left Colorado in their prime has done just as well with their new team.
Semien has just been a better player. Higher peak. More WAR over the past 4 seasons.
The deciding factor in pay may be the fact that Semien is 2 years older than Story and on the wrong side of 30.
Story will get a QO and come with loss of draft pick too, Marcus doesn’t.
I 100% agree with you @Bucsfan004. I don’t understand the Story hype. He’s not as good as what he’ll likely want to be paid as. He’s a Colorado product offensively. Someone is going to pay him, and someone is going to regret it for a long time.
Where does Verlander fall?
Wouldn’t expect a full blown season out of Verlander. Look at Sale and Thor as examples who had TJ prior to last year. Sale barely back, throwing 75p +/- and Thor still on the shelf, then Verlander is what? 36? 37? Guessing there. Think he’ll get 10m or so base, then heavy on extra$$ for whatever innings he throws for a year.
This is true, but one advantage Verlander does have compared to Sale, Thor, Severino is he had the surgery a few months prior in the summer/fall while the other 3 had their surgery in Feb/March. They are about 18 months in now, so when spring training 2022 hits Verlander will be 18 months in.
I hope the Marlins bring Castellanos home when he opts out.
Marlins need big bats.
Chris Taylor is going to be paid on his next deal. Easy 15M/ year player
Rodon will be a steal for some team – hopefully, for the White Sox again.
Bryant :Mets
Seager :dodgers
Story.: Rangers
Correa:Yankees ( yess it will happen )
Semien: giants
Marte : giants
Mad max : Padres
Gausman : angels
Jansen: angels
Castellanos : cardinals
Just give me the predictions contest title now
I actually dont mind this. I could see Seager going to the Yanks over Correa tho
You really think the Dodgers are going to outbid everyone for Corey Seager when they just traded for Turner? Or that Corey Seager who explicitly said he only wants to play shortstop is going to sign with a team that already has a proven All Star shortstop on their roster?
When did Seager say he only wanted to play SS in the future? I certainly don’t remember that..
I think Castellanos makes sense in SF, especially if his reputation as a Clank Glove has now been dispelled, as I’ve read in several reports.
Bryant, I believe, will stay in SF.
didn’t castillanos say that he didn’t want to play in SF at some point?
Yeah after he saw their city connect uniforms.
Who puts fog on a jersey?
There’s likely to be a dh anyways In the nl ! Up to people to learn to love it or not ! Personally I’ll be glad to never have to see pitchers pick up a bat again
I don’t want an NL DH. Ever see Max Fried hit? He’s better than some Catchers. The DH is a stupid gimmicky idea.
Always fun to look down the road.
Particularly as an optimist during a 10 game winning streak.
If I’m Brian Cashman I don’t know if I dabble in the SS market. Maybe peripherally. But I’m not willing to give up on Gleyber. I’m certainly not insensitive as to why some of the Yankee guys on the board are ready to though.
I get it.
But, right now, I see two spots I’d like to see upgraded: Kluber & (sadly) Gardy. Plunk Scherzer & Taylor on this roster & that would be a pretty good looking ballclub.
The Yankees won’t spend big on the SS market. Oh, they’ll be attached to all the big-name SS’s by their agents and by extension the media, but the Yankees will direct their resources elsewhere, have Gleyber hold down SS for one more year, and turn the job over to Volpe in 2023.
Torres reminds me of Phat Sancho.
They were both highly regarded & then burst into the bigs with incredible debuts.
I think – like Sanchez – Gleyber is still a talented player. But I also think expectations need to be tempered a bit. I would take defense that doesn’t kill you (Jeter? Posada?) & an OPS ~ .800 from these two.
That is still valuable.
Even if we hoped for more from them.
Wow the two I would like for the Orioles to sign Trevor Story and Eduardo Rodriguez are not even mentioned… stunning
Trevor Story? The story that’s number 4 on the list?
As a Giants fan, I’m excited for the offseason with the big cash flow we will have. They will workout a new 2 yr deal I believe with Posey. Of their other FA’s, Bryant is the one I see them keeping with possibly Gausman. The other bat I see them going after is Freeman to play 1B. If so, you have a nice lineup to go against anyone.
1B Freeman
2B LaStella
SS Crawford
3B Longoria
LF Yaztremski
CF Bryant
RF Wade
UT Flores
C Posey
Freeman very likely to re-sign with Braves. You don’t want Bryant playing CF very often, but I do think he re-signs with Giants.
Freeman will be a Brave for life.
You’re assuming Freeman will leave because he wants to be in California.
The pirates should just sign everyone and win the division
All that money they’ve been saving up over the past 30 years could be put to good use
Verlander $33mil and Greinke $32mil are both off the payroll in ‘22 so theoretically The Astros could resign Correa. I do find it unlikely though, Crane is pretty careful about how he spends his money.
E Rod not mentioned cuz he is not considered a high end FA, even if he is, he’s been so inconsistent this yr. I hope he doesn’t leave Boston, but i can see the writing on the wall.
I agree on ERod. In one way, his inconsistency might help the RS re-sign him. He’s actually had a fair amount of good games, amidst a fair amount of clunkers. A lot of teams won’t know whether to attribute to his Covid/heart condition, or simply a result of missing a year.
Castellanos is not leaving Cincinnati. He may opt out but he loves it here and the city loves him so I bet he signs an extension and they rip up the current deal.
No one loves Cincinnati. He will stay only if they offer him the most $, which they will not.
What made Story hard to trade is that BEFORE the trade deadline he had an OPS+ of 88 and even with the great play the last few weeks he is still only a league average 100 OPS+.
The mariners are ready to start putting the finishing touches on the rebuild. I love the idea of swapping the seager brothers. Don’t pick up kyles option and sign his brother. Grab a pitcher and let’s go. Mariners are 2 games out w a extremely young and talented roster. Minus half the staff that is expected to be the main cogs injured. Klews is on rehab. I say we sign Paxton again but put him in the bullpen ala Graveman style. We got some young players like Kirby and jrod likely coming up next year. A fresh kelonic and taking will be nice. I’m exited. It’s been 20 years since I been exited. And keep winning mariners. Even if your not a Ms fan u gotta root for em. They are a scrappy going team that deserves to be in the talk of a top ten team.
And yes
Run differential.
I know
But look at the stats.
In the games the mariners have won. It’s been 1 and 2 run wins
In the games we lost a lot have been blowouts. I could care less about run differential. As Scott said, it’s a fun differential
Go Ms
I know he prefers the west coast, but even with an over pay, Max would be a great signing for the Cub’s young pitching staff- and they will have $ to spend.
Yeah he likes winning too. So no he won’t be going to the Cubs this offseason.
Garbage away from Coors, but Trevor Story is ranked higher than reigning MVP Freddie Freeman? And Semien? Solid ranks, boys lol
I could care less that the Braves haven’t extended Freeman yet. A mid-season extension isn’t necessary.
Not sure why you guys at MLBTR has such a hard on for Cory Seager but I guarantee you he isn’t seen as the 2nd best free agent buy any team I the MLB.
$300M+ for Correa?!?!
Anyone paying that is certifiably and unarguably INSANE!
Questionable intelligence to even suggest it…
WAR is a misleading modern statistics, when you play just a few games or in a small sample. Correa history of injuries when was younger is just a clue of his future – getting older, with even less range, no wastebasket or trash can, plus more kick boxing with wife – I mean sumo massage, Pujols-Lindor-Harper long term contract fiasco, etc.
3—4 years based on games played with incentives. Check rbi/runs over 100, hr over 30, etc. Baseball is still a game based on runs and is key to win games, no WAR, please.
Rbis? Good lord muted.