TODAY: While there has been speculation that teams could be eyeing Story at other infield positions than shortstop, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports that “at least one team” interested in Story is considering him as a center fielder. Story has never played in any outfield position during his entire professional career, though that doesn’t necessarily mean he wouldn’t be able to manage a midseason switch.
JULY 21: The trade market has been slow to develop, even for some of the game’s more obvious trade candidates. That includes Rockies shortstop Trevor Story, who figures to draw plenty of interest over the next nine days as the trade deadline closes in. Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reports that as many as six to eight teams have reached out to gauge the asking price on Story.
Story’s value is tough to gauge at the moment for myriad reasons. He’s missed time this year due to elbow troubles, though no structural damage was found at the time of his IL placement and he’s been healthy since mid-June. Story is still owed about $6.97MM of his $17.5MM salary from tomorrow through season’s end, which is a weighty sum to add midseason — particularly with so many owners wary of upping payroll in the wake of last year’s revenue losses. Perhaps most notably, though, is that Story simply hasn’t performed up to his admittedly lofty standards. He’s hitting just .243/.316/.423 on the season with 11 home runs, 18 doubles, two triples and 17 stolen bases.
Rockies interim general manager Bill Schmidt has suggested in the past that he doesn’t feel he has to move Story at all costs prior to the deadline, and while such comments can be taken with a grain of salt, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports that there is some growing skepticism among other clubs that Story will actually be moved. The Rockies would stand to receive a compensatory draft pick in the overwhelmingly likely event that Story rejected a qualifying offer and signed elsewhere in free agency. In the unlikely event that he accepted a QO and signed on for another year with the Rox, they’d be able to take a run at trading him again next July.
It’s already been reported that the A’s aren’t likely to pursue Story and that the White Sox are interested in the two-time All-Star. Oakland is apparently not keen on the remaining money he’s owed, and while the A’s could ask the Rockies to cover some or all of that remaining salary, doing so would only up the cost in terms of prospects. The Sox, meanwhile, are without Nick Madrigal for the remainder of the season and could pair Tim Anderson and Story to form a rather imposing middle-infield tandem.
The number of teams with serious interest in a Story acquisition isn’t known and may not be until the next week of make-or-break games plays out. The Nationals, for instance, could use another infielder but will use the next six games or so to determine their deadline approach. The surprising Mariners are reported to be seeking infield help, but their level of aggression could be largely tied to the next seven games, when they’ll host four against the Athletics and three against the Astros — the two teams they trail in the division. Infield help is reportedly a secondary focus for the Mets at the moment, but perhaps if they can get a deal for some rotation help done sooner than later, they’d more seriously look at other areas of upgrade.
Skepticism is understandable, but it still seems likely that for a player of Story’s caliber, a solid offer (or offers) should eventually materialize. Schmidt told Saunders last week that he’s under no obligation to move Story for financial reasons. Speculatively speaking, if finances aren’t a factor and the ultimate goal is to get the best return possible, the Rockies could increase interest by offering to eat the remainder of Story’s salary. The Rox paid a whopping $51MM as part of their trade of Nolan Arenado to St. Louis in the offseason; Story would only be owed $6.12MM from July 31 through season’s end.
dannycore
I’ll be surprised if he nets a top 100 prospect. His bat outside of coors isn’t great and he’s making real money. He’s not a bad player don’t get me wrong. Just maybe not the guy we thought he was when the season started.
oldmansteve
Would you say you’re “waiting on a different story?”
Mynameisnoname
The guy is an excellent defender though.
Plus baserunner, plus power and plus plus defender. I see someone ponying up before August rolls around.
SoxRewl
His road OPS this season is .632.
For his career it’s .747.
90 of his career 145 home runs have been at Coors.
If the Rockies hold out for a huge return they’ll be left holding the bag.
Mynameisnoname
It’s tough to hit on the road when breaking balls stay flat at home
Arenado and DJL have excelled outside of Coors.
Brixton
Nolan is no where near his peak production in St Louis
Mynameisnoname
Minor drop off, sure. Coors is an XBH haven (even post humidor) after all, but Arenado has still performed at an All Star level and MLB now uses a deadened ball compared to the versions of his peak years.
These arent the Larry Walker days. Splits post Colorado tend to tighten appreciably.
ctyank7
DJL, after a productive season and a half in NY, has become the epitome of ordinary.
Special Agent
And will still likely hit 30+ homers and drive in 100+ runs, while playing excellent defense, as he normally does. All the while being an intense competitor. Yes, the Cardinals got fleeced.
Special Agent
Productive? He was amazing.
seamaholic 2
So tired of the “Rockies hitters can’t hit outside Coors” meme, and yet they keep coming back despite the fact that there isn’t a single example of a Rockies hitter who left town and hit significantly worse. And loads of examples on the other side (give DJ LeMahieu a call). But let’s make this a teaching moment:
Coors does inflate offensive production when hitters are there. But it DEFLATES offensive production when Rockies hitters go on the road, because of the unique adjustments required. It balances out, and as a result, Rockies hitters when they are traded or move to another team have very similar park adjusted numbers or better. Rarely worse, and then not by very much..
Also, every player in baseball hits better at home. You should check out the Yankees’ hitters one time. Aaron Judge’s career OPS is more than 200 points higher at home. He’s a nice but not particularly special hitter away from Yankee Stadium.
802Ghost
DJ also hits most of his AB’s in a tiny stadium.
johnnyrio
This site redirects players names right to Baseball Reference and with a simple click, you can see he hits 59 pts higher at home and power is down considerably…from 92 to 52 homers. Only a 72 AB difference.
SoxRewl
I agree that there is nothing special about Judge.
Special Agent
Oh stop it. No one wants to move off their bias about Rockies hitters. Let them live their confirmation bias.
And when Rockies pitchers do well, they never seem to get extra love, for pitching “in Coors.”
So what would Gray and Marquez be outside Coors?
BovineCrab
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spooky
Ball tongue
CuddyFox
Piss the Colorado fans off. Trade him to St Louis for 3 unknown players and a reliever.
Cap & Crunch
Gomber is doing great and the Rockies had no need for that contract as currently constructed. I felt they should have showcased him more and waited out a better deal but the next good Rockies team is going to have nothing to do with Nolans trade package
hiflew
The next good Rockies team is going to have nothing to do with Nolan’s trade package is the EXACT reason it was a horrible deal.
JoeBrady
They blew it on both sides. Before they signed him, they needed to ask themselves if they could also afford Story. Once the answer was ‘no’, they should’ve traded him. Instead, they signed signed him to a contract they couldn’t afford. Then they went overboard the other way, and kicked in $51M to get rid of him. So he went from being a bit overpaid to being a bit underpaid.
That said, so far, Gomber has been really good. He’s got a 1.62 ERA over his last 8 starts.
hiflew
I’m not unhappy with Gomber’s performance, in fact he has been one of the more pleasant surprises of this whole season for me. My problem is that he would have to be young Tom Seaver in order to make me forget paying arguably the best Rockies player in history to go away while he is in his prime. Hopefully I can get over how bad deal was and start looking at Gomber or Montero or any of the other guys as something other than reminders of the horrible deal.
Putmeincoach12
I like that idea but you can’t have 3 players for 3 months.
seamaholic 2
The Rockies won that trade, and it’s fairly obvious if you’re paying attention. Not only is Gomber a rock solid middle of the rotation starter (what would the Cards give to have him now), but Eleheuris Montero, the best of the “unknown” prospects the Rox got, is blowing up AA and looks like a star. And one of the two teams still owes a 30 something third baseman $150m going forward, and it ain’t the Rockies.
Special Agent
No way they won it. Gomber has been fantastic after a shaky start. Will he be consistently good, every season? That is not yet known. Montero has been hot, cold as ice and is now warming up. The power potential is there but will he hit enough to big highly productive? We shall see. A big unknown. Gil could be a utility guy. The other guys…suck.
Arenado is a known quantity and still a possible HOF guy.
Ronk325
I don’t think the Rockies are going to get anything special if they trade Story and they might just be better off taking the compensation pick at this point. Should have traded him in the offseason along with Arenado
YankeesBleacherCreature
The Rockies can still get a haul of prospects for Story provided that thet eat most of his remaining salary. Get a bidding war started among teams on the cusp of moving past the CBT and work down. I don’t believe Schmidt for a second that he isn’t going to trade Story.
diddlez
There is zero chance they get “a haul of prospects” for Story. The guy is a .243/.311/.436 hitter on the road and has an even more awful .180/.278./.353 line on the road this season. They are going to have to eat the rest of his remaining salary to MAYBE get one top 100 prospect.
hiflew
Bidding wars are funny things. 6-8 teams asking, means 6-8 teams are at least somewhat interested. If even 2 or 3 of those teams become “highly interested,” then you have a bidding war. Of course, Colorado is running the auction, so he will probably get traded for a bag of magic beans and a top prospect from 2014.
Jean Matrac
When was the last time a rental went for a “haul” in a bidding war? Every team has a value for every available asset. Nobody is going to exceed their evaluations by any great degree. If Story is traded it won’t be for a haul, bidding war or not. And if he isn’t traded it will be because the Rockies deem the compensation pick better than the return, much like the Giants and Bumgarner
sirandrews
Finally, a good take on here. I swear people just haven’t paid attention to the trade deadline for 8 years.
LATrolleyDodger
Language matters and “haul” was waaaay off the mark
David Barista
so 2-3 teams interested…. Rockies also competing with Pirates Adam Frazier and Diamondbacks Eduardo Escobar
thecoffinnail
Position players rarely bring back good returns at the deadline. For the last 10 years or so high leverage relievers seem to bring back the best prospects with very good veteran starters not far behind. Teams that are in the playoff hunt don’t seem to want to trade their best prospects for a better bat for the lineup. The Castellanos and JD Martinez trades should give you an idea of what to expect. They will probably get way more out of Gray than they will for Story.
oldmansteve
Even if they eat the contract, they wouldn’t get any more than the Orioles got for Machado in 2018: one 45 fv, one 40 fv, and a 35. That equates to a borderline top 150 prospect, a potential major league player, and a crapshoot. So imagine less than that.
hiflew
Yusniel Diaz was a top 80 prospect when the deal happened. And they still got four other prospects with him. But that was a quantity over quality deal. I think Story is worth a lot more than Castellanos, who didn’t truly break out until after his trade. Before that he was mostly a disappointing, albeit serviceable, former top prospect. The JD Martinez deal was just silly, not precedent setting. They traded a DH to a NL team, of course they are not going to get anything good for him.
If Story doesn’t get something similar to a lower (76-100) top 100 guy + a couple of low level lottery tickets, I will be disappointed. Not necessarily surprised, but disappointed.
David Barista
So the White Sox are interested, and 3 others (Mets, Mariners, Nationals) are sorta, maybe, kinda interested. The article says 6-8 teams, but only mentions White Sox, Mets, Mariners, Nationals, and the A’s who “aren’t likely” to pursue Story. Want to throw in the Yankees sorta, maybe, kinda? So 1-6 teams interested?
Rockies GM has little to no leverage. Paying for the remainder of Story’s contract AND receiving a compensatory draft pick seems terribly stubborn…. He NEEDS to make a move in spite of the posturing
Special Agent
Force a move for potential garbage. Forget that. Story was a comp pick. Keep the pick and don’t sell for peanuts. Story will hit again. A lot of good players are having down years. Does Lindor all of a sudden suck? Yelich has been down for a while for a year plus. Torres is bad. Rizzo. Others that I am too lazy to go look up. Story will hit again.
David Barista
I agree that Story will hit…. No question he’s a good player…. Also no question the Rockies need to make a move…. Why pay his salary? And why settle for a comp pick? The GM isn’t doing his job if they hold
Rsox
The power numbers this season are actually fairly even with 6 HR’s at home and 5 on the road. The batting average being over 100 points lower on the road is the concerning part
hiflew
Why is every always concerned with Rockies H/R numbers. Nolan Arenado has been fine. DJ LeMahieu has been better than fine. Matt Holliday had a great career after Colorado and his splits were awful.
Coors Field is the best hitting ballpark in the league so home stats will be inflated. More importantly, the Rockies are the only team that do not get to inflate their road stats with Coors Field numbers. So their road numbers are missing the best hitting park in the league. Road stats are a horrible way to measure anything for any team simply because they as different as home stats depending on which team you play for.
augold5
Willy Adames would disagree
diddlez
Because the numbers are concerning.
BeforeMcCourt
Imagine playing at home for 2 weeks, and near every slider breaks 5 inches or less. Then you leave Colorado and it breaks 15 inches
Now do it for every type of breaking ball. Welcome to the struggle Colorado hitters have on the road
Cosmo2
hiflew: First of all, it’s not so much the inflated home stats, it’s the bad road stats. Plus, if the home stats are inflated isn’t that the point? Without playing half his games in Colorado he won’t be as impressive (is the theory). Lastly, you’re way overstating the effect of not having Colorado as road games on a players stats. That is most definitely NOT what makes Colorado players splits so extreme. … There are, in fact, reasons why those splits aren’t actually good predictors (a players overall stats DO generally transfer from playing for Colorado to the next team without significant regression) but none of them are anything you are stating.
hiflew
I guess that means I have discovered completely new reasons why those splits are useless stats then. I always wanted to be a pioneer.
But seriously, a full 11% of the other 4 NL West teams road stats are made up of Coors numbers. Each of them play 9/81 road games in Denver each year. That is significant. Other NL teams are not quite as much, but they still represent anywhere from 4-5% of the numbers. It’s not insignificant and it is definitely more than the 0% of the Rockies hitters.
Cosmo2
11% is nothing when you consider it’s a maybe ten to twenty percent increase in offense created by the Colorado effect. So that would be like, 15% * 11%, right? Something like that. A pretty insignificant number overall, if I have my equation remotely correct. Either way, it just doesn’t add up to a noticeable boost. It’s going to amount to a difference of less than a 5% boost in total offense. Like the difference between a 110 OPS+ and a 113.
hiflew
You don’t have your equation remotely correct, but life is too short to waste my time explaining things to you for free. Enjoy your life, I’m done here.
JoeBrady
It depends on your base numbers. If someone in a neutral park has an .800 OPS, but can hit 1.000 in Colorado, then the quick calculation is (1.000-.800) equals 200 points advantage. Divide that by 162, times 9 games in CO, and it raises your OPS from .800 to .811.
oldmansteve
Which means I don’t know how you’re wrong so I’ll just be a condescending instead.
Cosmo2
Hey if my math is wrong it’s wrong, but my point stands. As per Joe Brady’s post below the difference is totally insignificant. If this is incorrect, please, by all means make your case. But don’t hide behind the “waste my time excuse.” My point is that the difference between having 11% of games at Colorado and not is an insignificant one. For it to be significant, the numbers in that 11% would have to be radically different than the rest…. Say you bat .300 (150 for 500). Now replace 11% of those ABs with ABs where the player is quite a bit better. Say, a .425 batting average (25 for 55). That changes things to 158 for 500 overall, or .316; Does that seem statistically drastic enough to justify your point? Again, if you can show me I’m wrong, I’m open to it, but I still maintain that what you are talking about is not responsible for the effect, it’s too unlikely to make a large statistical difference… plus, if Colorado does have such a possible effect on 11% of games played, then wouldn’t it have an even larger effect if you played half your games there as opposed to just 11%? Which would indicate perhaps that players who play their home games at Colorado DO have their stats significantly raised, thus the point that you can’t expect a player to be as good when they leave Colorado for another team, let alone another league in which case they also, much like Colorado players, lose that 11% boost on the road. I’m open to your reply, but don’t bother replying that your not going to reply.
Cosmo2
Hey, Joe Brady, you seem to have a better grip of this than me. So I’m wondering your feelings on this: In general what I’m going for is the base that a, say, 10% boost within 10% of your data equals an overall boost of 1%. My hypothesis, if you could call it that, is that any boost in 11% of data would have to be freakishly better than the other 89% to have the altering effect suggested by hiflew. Sorry if I’m belaboring the point, I’m just really curious now. I certainly don’t mind being proven wrong by logic. Anyway, this is more evidence that I should probably go back to school and study statistics myself.
hiflew
I’ll try again then and maybe some people won’t see me as condescending.
Think of it this way. Park factors for runs in Coors is 1.290 this year. Park factors for the Dodgers in runs is .934. That is a lot more than an 11% difference, by the way. For the Rockies and Dodgers players, the rest of the schedule for NL West teams is basically the same so let’s just put all 72 other games as 100 for ease. All Rockies games at LA will count as 93.4 while Dodgers games at Coors will count as 129. The 81 game average is 99.2 for Rockies players and 103.2 for Dodgers players. Those 9 games created a huge difference, especially for a sample as large as 81.
JoeBrady
The difference is not that stark. In 2021, the CO pitchers have a home OPS that is actually lower than their road OPS. In 2020, it was H/A .866/.789. In 2019, it was .885/.790. In 2018, it was .779/.690.
I feel comfortable saying that is ~ 11-12%. If you play 5.5% of you games at Colorado, then the advantage is 12% * .055, or 0.67%. The difference is de minimus if you only play 5.5% under almost any conditions.
JoeBrady
Cosmo2
Hey, Joe Brady, you seem to have a better grip of this than me.
======================================================
There are probably a few different ways to do this, but it will all come to similar numbers.
Let’s say you play the same number of games at every ballpark, but none at CO. Further assume that you hit one HR at each park, for a total of 29 HRs. Then they add CO to your schedule for the same number of games. Even if you hit twice as many HRs at CO, you still only hit 7% more than you did before.
Cosmo2
Joe Brady: thanks. I’m not even kidding, I’m looking into taking an online math course or two because my inability to get this right is kind of nagging at me. I figured it wasn’t a huge difference though, even if I couldn’t get my equations right.
Baseball 1600
Story is incredibly streaky but I’ve seen him go on tears where he can carry a team. Hasn’t run into one yet this season but hard to believe the demand is entirely empty. It’s these types of guys teams look for in October to get hot.
ASapsFables
Trevor Story does have a limited track record in the postseason. He was terrific in his two one-and-done wild card games in 2017 and 2018 versus the Diamondbacks and Cubs but less successful in the 2018 NLDS against the Brewers.
hiflew
In fairness, the entire team did not show up against the Brewers in 2018.
oldmansteve
Every player has a limited track record in the post season. Turns out, the more post season ABs a guy gets, the more those numbers reflect his career norms.
tstats
If only people realized that applies to all situations… (except for maybe coors stats)
David Barista
The demand is limited to the teams with playoff aspirations and a need for middle infield….. the article says 6-8 teams and then goes on to list 5 teams by name… Are the Brewers interested? Are the Yankees? Holding Story would be a huge failure on the part of the Rockies. The offers only need to exceed the cost of the contract and a compensatory pick.
David Barista
There is more competition amongst sellers like the Pirates (Adam Frazier) and the Diamondbacks (Escobar) then the potential suitors for middle infield….
cayman97
Cardinals please!!
JerryBird
I would like to see him in STL too, but don’t get your hopes up. STL is standing pat. If they made a couple of deals, it would be entirely possible to take the the Central. Fingers crossed.
Jake1972
Cardinals are not winning the Central this year ( Brewers are ) and are not even getting a Wild Card, so it would be wise to retool for next year and the same goes for the Cubs…
the outlaw
The NYY remains the best fit in my eyes.
It would fix so many of the IF problems in one fell swoop. Gleybar to 2B, DJ to 1B is much stronger than what they have now.
Voit is not a long term solution due to his constant health concerns.
Jon Gray & Trevor Story for Oswald Peraza and Albert Abreu. That is assuming Brian Cashman still has a pulse. This gives them a peek at how Story might fit into a long term plan . Worse case scenario you get Gray for 2 (I think) seasons.
jopeness
I’ve never been sold on story and personally would rather explore players in the Pirates or Diamondbacks system. I’d be all over Bryan Reynolds, albeit for a price, I’d doubt, although injured, if Ketel Marte could be had. We could populate a small city with the LOB stat this season.
JoeBrady
The day after the AS game, all the NY writers were writing articles that the NYY had to trade for Reynolds. I swear, I think they never heard of the guy before the ASG, and then started writing about him like he was some sort of AA 7th round pick that they discovered.
That said, I see no way that the NYY can afford him. If I were the RS, I’d easily send Duran down for him, and likely more than that. I just don’t see any negatives on his resume.
AHH-Rox
Gray, like Story, is purely a rental who will be a free agent after the season. Still could be worth getting for the Yankees.
Captain-Judge99
@ahh- I like the Yankees chances of landing Jon Gray better then Trevor Story. Is Story a real need for the Yankees? I’m thinking no.
Captain-Judge99
@the outlaw- I just don’t see a match for Story going to the Yankees. Their just too right-handed as it is. The only way I see Story coming to Ny is in a deal for Luke Voit+. I know my friend @Ducky Buckin Fent wouldn’t be too happy about that! Lol. I would rather the Yankees acquire Anthony Rizzo or Joey Gallo. We need lefties that have power and lefty contact hitters. No more righties needed. That said, Mr. Story could definitely help another team out there for sure.
LATrolleyDodger
I’m a believer in the “change of scenery” for certain players. Might be someone to gamble on, especially if he is dealt to a contender. I mean, the Rockies have been irrelevant for a long time (most noise coming from the All-star game) so it might get a player with potential to go from a losing to winning organization, incompetency to competency. This is probably a good time to get Story. Who really knows though! So many players get hype and then never live up to it after showing flashes. He costs a lot. Colorado would have to absorb a chunk of that.
brandonl
Wouldn’t be shocked it the Mets target him and Gray in a package. When Lindor comes back you can shift him to third or second. Not holding my breath, but they have the money and Cohen is looking to make a splash.
JerryBird
I have constantly read here on MLBTR that batting average no longer matters, at least since ANALytics took over baseball. Now it suddenly serves a purpose? It depends on how you want to approach your argument, huh? I’d bet you won’t get any doubters for a .230 hitting Joey Gallo. He’s similar to Story with a weak average, good power and plays his position well. Just sayin’…
Chief Two Hands
BA is one of many significant stats. I think a lot of people confuse something not being the only thing that matters with something not mattering at all. I see that with people throughout a wide variety of topics in general.
JoeBrady
Absolutely. I see so many people in here that think that, just because a statistic is not OVERLY meaningful, it is completely ignored. Even though singles and walks look the same for OBP, no meaningful stats person would think they are interchangeable.
JerryBird
Chief and JoeBrady – I get it, and thanks for the responses. This wasn’t one of my typical rants at ANALytics. I believe a lot more in batting averages than most. As for the OBP, I’d take a single over a walk any day, because in real life, I have never seen a runner score from second or third because the batter drew a walk. Statistically they may calculate the same way, but sometimes numbers lie. Give me the guy who can bring in a run during the rally, not just prolong the rally and leave the run production to someone else.
BeforeMcCourt
“ As for the OBP, I’d take a single over a walk any day, because in real life, I have never seen a runner score from second or third because the batter drew a walk. ”
So you’ve never seen a bases loaded walk…?
You think that a base runner dictates if a batter has succeeded? A dodger player could hit the exact same single, with Chris Taylor on 2B it’s an RBI, but with Albert Pujols on 2B it’s 1st and 3rd. Somehow Albert being on 2nd means that single is less impactful?
You have to believe that logic if you believe a walk is worse than a single because a guy from second can’t score… just let that sink in
gbs42
If you’re calling it ANALytics, it’s a rant.
JoeBrady
A single is always better than a walk. Again, for me, it isn’t a matter of ignoring average, as much as putting in into context. Ichiro had a .311 average, but only a .355 OBP and 117 career HRs. IMO, that pales alongside someone like Grich. Grich had only a .266 average (-44 points), but had a .371 OBP (+16) and twice as many HRs.
The extra singles by Ichiro comes nowhere close to making up for the additional walks and HRs by Grich.
JerryBird
Before McCourt – Funny. If I can have the bases loaded as often as just a runner on second or third, then yes, a walk is as good as a hit, otherwise forget it man. Realistics situations and percentages are against your argument. You are reaching way too far to make a senseless point. On the average, a runner will score from second on a single, but not a walk. How about this. If there is a wild pitch on ball 4 and the ball bounces around the stadium for 5 minutes, then a walk is as good as a single with a runner on second. Good argument?
A single carries more value to winning a game. I hate when I have to state the obvious to morons who argue for the sake of argument. I don’t give a rat’s a** about individual stats determining an individuals success. My team winning the game is how I judge success. Give me a single over a walk any day, my friend. Individual stats count after the season’s end.
JerryBird
gbs42 – Okay, i digress.
BeforeMcCourt
I’m quoting unrealistic situations!? The dodgers have taken 14% of their total RISP at bats with the bases loaded. Hardly insignificant
The dodgers have 118 at bats with the bases loaded. Only 72 with 2nd and 3rd. Walks work very well for the dodgers..
JerryBird
I’m talking about the entire MLB, not a single team. You support your argument with a hand selected fixed limited sample. That is why I say numbers lie and liars use numbers.
Curious, how many walks have scored a run for your bases loaded Dodgers stats?
BeforeMcCourt
What are you saying! The dodgers don’t even have the most walks with the bases loaded in baseball! They’re tied for 5th! If I wanted to hand select my point for biggest impact, I would use Milwaukee or Houston. They both have 5 more walks in more than 20 fewer at bats. Dodgers have 11, Mil+Houston lead with 16 bases loaded walks
And before you pretend this trend is only playoff teams and doesnt apply to any team.. let’s look at The Arizona Diamondbacks, 32 games out of first. They have nearly double the number of at bats with the bases loaded than 2nd+3rd; 103-62. Btw, Dbacks are 3rd best team with 15 bases loaded BB
I’m not a liar because I use statistics. Hahaha what an idiotic statement. The difference is I understand how to win an argument. How? By showing your idiotic claims have no backing in truth, they’re based on emotion and BS
BeforeMcCourt
“ Before McCourt – Funny. If I can have the bases loaded as often as just a runner on second or third, then yes, a walk is as good as a hit, ”
Just want to quote this again and say every team I’ve looked up, they’ve had 40% or more at bats with the bases loaded than 2nd and 3rd. So awesome, thank you for agreeing with me. Your words are right there
JerryBird
I said 2nd OR 3rd, NOT 2nd AND 3rd. look,I am sorry you wasted your time looking up the wrong stats, but if you think it is as good to draw enough walks to bring a runner in from 2nd OR 3rd than one base hit, then good for you. All I have been saying is that a walk is not the same as a single. Statiisically, perhaps, but with RISP (like 2nd OR 3rd) I want that single. It is more productive in scoring that run. Keep looking up the wrong stats and throwing percentages out there. I find it amusing. Now how many times have teams scored a run with a bases loaded walk compared to runners on 2nd OR 3rd? Remember, 2nd OR 3rd.
BTW, I do apologize for implying you are a liar. I am sure your intent is honorable. It is just a phrase I use for people who live their lives strictly by the numbers. Once again, very sorry. Malice is not my intent.
gbs42
I’m mildly impressed you’ve both kept this debate going for so long.
To summarize: In the best circumstances, a walk is equal to a single, but I can’t envision any situation where it’s better.
JerryBird
So I assume that you also would prefer a walk than a single in a situation, say, runner on third, two outs. It would take three walks to accomplish what one single can do. This is strange to me. There are people out there less concerned about scoring that run so long as a batter can walk, that a walk can get the job done as the same thing or better… eventually, maybe? Okay you guys, I live in a different baseball world I guess.
gbs42
Jerry – We know all about what assumptions can do, and I have no idea why you made the one you did.
A single obviously is better than a walk with a runner on third and two outs. I’ll never argue against that.
I said “In the best circumstances, a walk is equal to a single.” Bottom of the last inning, tie game, bases loaded, a walk is just as good as a hit. No one on base, a walk is as good as a single. (Actually, it might be ever so slightly better if it increases the pitcher’s pitch count.) In just about every other circumstance, I’d take the single.
Making a poor assumption just to continue this long-winded debate is nonsensical.
JerryBird
So now you would prefer a single than a walk to score that run. To me, that gives a single the better value, at least during the game. That’s all I am saying. This is where ANALytics gives the false impression that a walk is equal to a single. To determine OBP, then yes, they are equal. However in a critical run scoring situation, OBP doesn’t matter. Give me the hit. What am I missing that you guys see? I am not talking about what stats look like after the game or the end of the season. I am talking about during a game time situation where taking a walk doesn’t get the job done. Are people so complacent that they are less concerned about wins and overly concerned about stats that matter only after the fact? I just don’t understand that point of view, though I really would like to.
gbs42
“So now you would prefer a single than a walk to score that run.” I don’t know what situation you are referring to, so I can’t be sure I’m answering you correctly.
If you mean runner on third and two outs, yes, a single is better, and I don’t know where you’re “now” comment is coming from. I never argued the walk was as good in that situatio.
In most situations, a single is better. In a few circumstances – as I mentioned before – they’re equally valuable.
I may be wrong, but you seem to be creating an argument and assigning beliefs to others that allow you to perpetuate that argument, to rail against ANALytics.
JerryBird
I originally implied that a walk and single are not the same in game situations involving RISP. I cited my example. Then some guy chimes in, using incorrect data, to make an unecessary point. Then I get the usual “with bases empty, they are the same”. That wasn’t my point at all. My intent was not to rail against ANALytics, though it turns out that way because ANALytics was used to support a bad argument. I think my point is seen more clearly as to why a single has more value than a walk. It was a hypothetical that went sideways. I hung on to it way too long. Sorry for wasting our time.
mlb1225
Batting average is useful depending on the context. You need more than just “he’s a .250 hitter” to know whether or not he is good. Reggie Jackson ended his career with a .262 AVG and Harmon Killerbrew ended his career with a .256 AVG. Joe Morgan and Alexei Ramirez have almost identical batting averages. Both Johnny Bench and Mike Schmidt have the same batting average as Neifi Perez, a guy with a 58 wRC+, which is lower than Zack Greinke has in his career.
I don’t really get the comparrison if we’re just looking at this year. If you want to use batting average, sure. But if we’re also talking about power, Story has a .180 ISO (which is just SLG%-BA) and has a SLG% below .450. Gallo on the other hand has a .271 mark and SLG% above .500. Pretty big difference in terms of power output this season.
Captain-Judge99
@JerryBird- that being said even though Trevor Story might be better player then Joey Gallo. I think Gallo is a much better fit with the Yankees, given them the lefty bat that they crave. I really enjoy your posts, since they make sense.
JerryBird
Yankee 4 Life – Point well taken. Thank you for a sensible response. Sometimes ANALytics just doesn’t determine the value of a player for a particular team. It is more for player vs. player analysis, free agency value, arbitration and players’ agents…
Cosmo2
Win Shares seems more designed to determine a players value for a particular team. But of course all analytics need context. You have a good point, albeit a bit obscured by the creepy insistence on capitalizing those particular letters.
JerryBird
Cosmo2 – Sorry, I am old school and a natural born a**. Analytics isn’t as perfect as people think, but IS an extremely useful tool. However, it can also be skewed to the point of annoying when one tries to win a pointless argument based strictly on numbers, like a single vs a walk. Remember, numbers lie and liars use numbers. From now on, I will try to take it with a grain of salt.
Creepy, I like that.
gbs42
JerryBird – I’m not sure anyone thinks analytics is perfect, but I’d rather teams (and people in general) continue to study, learn, and improve. Triple Crown stats certainly have value, but other stats have more value. As someone posted above via a few comparisons, players with the same batting average can have wildly different values at the plate.
JerryBird
gbs42 – I am not trying to start another point vs point, but the Triple Crown stats have apparently lost value in the past few years. Apparently batting average has less value than before, while RBIs are now considered coincidental by many and have false value.
Personally, I am a fan of all three stats and give them as much value now as ever before. Home runs have been less difficult to achieve because of steroids and doctored baseballs, so maybe that stat should have less value, just depends on one’s approach to defend the argument. Use the stats and analysis of your choice to prove your point is what I have seen since analytics has become popular.
Yes, players with the same averages do have different values and analytics has made that point more clear to us than before.
All that said, I’d still take the guy who can score that runner from second on a single hit. Raise that average and give him an RBI! Yes!
BeforeMcCourt
“ Home runs have been less difficult to achieve because of steroids and doctored baseballs, so maybe that stat should have less value, just depends on one’s approach to defend the argument.”
You still think steroids are why home runs are up? Wow, you’re about 15 years behind
Once again. You think a hitter is more valuable based on who his teammate on base is. The same single with Pujols on 2B or Jazz Chisholm on 2B lead to very different likelihood’s to scoring a run. How TF does the hitter change that? Spoiler, they don’t. They have ZERO impact who they hit behind or in front of
hyraxwithaflamethrower
As long as the White Sox don’t get him, I don’t really care where he goes. The Rockies would be dumb to keep him if they get any offer better than a QO pick, though, especially keeping in mind the money they’d owe him for the rest of the year if they kept him.
Chief Two Hands
True, but the Rockies FO hasn’t really impressed anyone with their intelligence. That Arenado trade was comically bad, for example, given the weak return in prospects and the amount of his remaining contract they agreed to cover. That is just one example, but it pretty much sums up that FO’s incompetence. I have heard a lot of opinions about the Rockies FO from fans of the team, and none of them have been remotely positive. It isn’t just about the losing seasons, but the overall decisions that have been made and the way the FO has conducted their business.
Perksy
Trevor Story career splits based on 500 AB is pretty drastic.
(Home) AVG .305 HR 34 RBI 100
(Road) AVG. 244 HR 21 RBI 60
mikecws91
Just as Coors inflates Rockies hitters’ home numbers, it actually depresses their road numbers because they get used to the wonky environment in Denver. Google “Coors hangover effect”.
whirlybird
I think we’ve all felt the Coors hangover effect at one point in our adult lives…
BartoloHRball
You win the internet today.
Drinking @ Altitude + Rockies Losing, Again = Coors Hangover Effect
jim stem
Story’s down numbers can easily be linked to whomever is hitting behind him in the lineup. Why pitch to him if you don’t have to?
msqboxer
Very seldom do upper tier position players get moved at the deadline, mostly pitching. Recent history not counting 2020 Castellanos and Machado were moved. Story is not a Machado, but more like Castellanos who netted the #16 and #23 prospects of the Cubs at the time and the Tigers had to pony up some $$’s. If someone like the CWS are interested they have players blocked on the MLB roster like Burger and Sheets…maybe that’s why they promoted Adolfo to AAA as a showcase.
David Barista
I think CWS promoted Adolfo because he earned a promotion…. His 15 home runs were good enough to tie him for the most this season in the Double-A South. He also leads the league in RBIs, slugging percentage (.525), extra-base hits (30), and total bases….. If not for injuries, he’d already have been at AAA or MLB…. Guy is a legit prospect…. Burger seems like the odd man out for playing time
Logjammer D"Baggagecling
8 days til the deadline and only 1 trade has happened. It was a minor trade too. At first I hated the Joc signing but he grew on me. It’d be interesting if Kris Bryant went to ATL as well. The would need at least 1 player from their ML roster or one that would’ve been called up in September. Plus 2 midevel prospects. How ever with recent hamstring fatigue there’s a chance he’s not traded.
LordD99
Trades don’t happen until the deadline.
Dan Hunter
Lindor is out for a long time and Conforto and he cannot hit.
Cosmo2
Do we have any indication as to how long Lindor is actually gonna be out?
krockMETS
It’s still all speculation but grade 2 oblique is usually around 6 weeks.
eddiemathews
Somebody interested in Trevor in center? That’d probably be the Brewers.
boachthecoach
Sounds like an SF move
Redsoxx_62
Nah it’s got to be either the Astros or Padres
geg42
Stinks of Ian Desmond.
AHH-Rox
Well, it worked for them with Robin Yount.
Cosmo2
Did it? He was terrible in center.
tstats
Are the Yankees that desperate
Captain-Judge99
@tstats- no the Yankees are not desperate to trade for Trevor Story and place in centerfield. That notion is ridiculous. It’s not happening. I’d rather have Florial or Allen out there. Smh
tstats
So the FAN would rather have unproven hitters rather than the proven elite hitter? Cashman must rely on your ideas. Story would be a great upgrade to CF/SS for the yanks (both SS and CF).
Captain-Judge99
So basically Trevor Story has never played an outfield position a day in his life according to the report. And no he is going to start playing centerfield, all of a sudden? All these teams would be wise to pass on him if he isn’t playing shortstop.
boachthecoach
I feel like this is SF asking him to do so. I could see him filling in at short while Crawford is out, then asking Story to shift to Center once he is back.
Rsox
Spend assets to trade for a player and then put said player at a position he’s never played and then complain when player doesn’t produce. Story playing anywhere but SS is probably a bad idea in mid/late season
Dan Hunter
Story will play short for the NY Mets
Captain-Judge99
***Hearing Trevor Story to the Yankees is almost a done deal. Expect a trade after the Yankee-RedSox game tonight at Fenway or tomorrow. The Rockies have asked for Clint Frazier, Anthony Volpe #11 and Kevin Alacantra #12. Remains to be seen if this trade will happen. We’ll see.
AHH-Rox
Why would the Rockies want Frazier?
JoeBrady
Why wouldn’t they? For as long as he’s been around, he still has three control years left. And he was plenty good in 2019-20. I’m not really a fan of Frazier, and hate the NYY, but I think it is way too early to write him off yet.
BeforeMcCourt
And I heard the crack epidemic will end tomorrow. Or not. It remains to be seen
JoeBrady
Yankee-4-Life 75
===========================
As much as about half the trades proposals in here make my eyes water, this one looks real good.
1-Frazier can be annoying and inconsistent, but he has gone from overrated to underrated, imo.
2-Volpe & Alacantra are real prospects, but not so good that they Yankees would hold on at all costs. Plus, since Volpe is only the NYY 2nd/3rd minor league SS, they give him up easier. I find that is where you get your best values, by going after the guys that the other team doesn’t value as high.
Well done!
Yankee-4-Lifer 75
@JoeBrady- thank you for all your kind words. I thought the trade made sense and now that it didn’t happen I look really foolish. I could still see it happening, even though my preference is still Joey Gallo, Max Kepler, or Anthony Rizzo.
JoeBrady
The beauty of this time of the year is that one day you are getting Scherzer & Story, and the next day, you are trading for guys you never heard of. It’s what makes baseball great.
But this 4-game series is making the reality of a Story acquisition, a bit more problematic.
Yankee-4-Lifer 75
Hopefully that trade doesn’t go thru. The Yankees need a left handed power bat like Joey Gallo instead of Trevor Story.