No team from the NL East has yet separated themselves from the pack. The Phillies, Braves and Nationals are all within five games of the division-leading Mets, with much of the division hovering within the realm of .500.
It’s almost certainly division title or bust for all those teams, with the top three in the NL West all ahead of the Mets in the National League playoff picture. There’s likely only one path to the postseason for each of New York, Philadelphia, Atlanta and Washington, but the division’s overall underwhelming play has left the door open for each.
None of that group can really afford a slump over the next couple weeks — especially not the fourth-place Nats, who sit at 45-49. Speaking with reporters (including Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com and Maria Torres of the Athletic) before yesterday’s game, Washington general manager Mike Rizzo acknowledged that the team’s performance over the next week and a half will go a long way towards determining their course of action before the July 30 trade deadline.
Rizzo suggested the front office would look to add to the roster if the team plays well over the coming days. He didn’t tip his hand as to exactly what that calculus looks like or how close to the top of the division the club would need to stay in order for the Nationals to serve as buyers. Washington beat the Marlins last night and will go for a sweep of Miami this evening. After an off day tomorrow, the Nats head to Baltimore for three games before a four-game set in Philadelphia that’ll take them up to the deadline.
Under Rizzo’s watch, the Nationals traditionally haven’t been shy about making midseason upgrades when they see the opportunity. The GM didn’t specify where the club would looking to upgrade if they wound up buying, but a few places on the roster stand out as logical fits. The Nationals could use help at the back of the rotation, and the bullpen has again had its share of issues.
On the position player side, either of second or third base could be easily upgraded upon. Alcides Escobar has played well since being acquired a few weeks ago, but he hadn’t appeared in the big leagues in either of the past two seasons and hasn’t had an above-average campaign since 2014. (Escobar was also diagnosed with a right wrist contusion after being hit by a pitch in last night’s game).
Starlin Castro didn’t play especially well at third base and was placed on administrative leave last week after being accused of domestic violence. (While not a disciplinary action, administrative leave gives MLB time to investigate alleged violations of the domestic violence policy while keeping the accused player away from the team). Rizzo told reporters yesterday (including Britt Ghiroli of the Athletic) he doesn’t expect Castro to return, saying the organization “failed” in their vetting process of the player’s makeup and stating that Castro’s alleged behavior is “not something that (manager) Davey Martinez’s and Mike Rizzo’s Washington Nationals are going to have on this team.”
If things go in the other direction and the Nationals do wind up selling, no player on the roster would draw more attention than ace Max Scherzer. Rizzo said he expects Scherzer to remain in Washington beyond the trade deadline, although he stopped short of calling him untouchable. Asked if there was any scenario in which Scherzer might be made available, Rizzo replied “if we turn into definite sellers, everything would be on the table, I would think. Which I don’t foresee.”
The odds are overwhelmingly stacked against a Scherzer trade, although it’s at least a little notable that Rizzo wouldn’t completely rule that situation out. It’d seemingly take a poor week of play for the Nationals to even consider a Scherzer trade, though, and there are numerous obstacles that could stand in the way even if Washington made him available. While he’s slated to hit free agency at the end of the year, the eight-time All-Star is due $15MM in annual deferrals through the end of 2028. He also has full no-trade rights, and agent Scott Boras suggested last month Scherzer might not waive those unless given some other form of contractual inducement to do so.
It’d be more straightforward for the Nationals to move a few of their other impending free agents. Utilityman Josh Harrison and relievers Brad Hand and Daniel Hudson would all generate calls from interested clubs. Jon Lester isn’t having a great year, but he could still upgrade some teams’ fifth starter spots and would be a respected veteran addition to a clubhouse.
The opportunity is there for the team to quell any of that speculation by playing well over the next week. The division still seems winnable for any of the top four teams, and Rizzo’s track record backs up his assertion he’d be willing to supplement the roster if the club shows enough life leading up to the deadline.
The Nationals more than most teams have an excuse for being undecided on what to do. But this idea that teams can’t do anything is outright crazy. They can. Even if you trade for a guy and then change your mind about competing you can trade him again. So why sit on your hands???
But you can’t get back the players you gave up to get him.
Trades are always a gamble, and the validity of the risk depends on what you’re acquiring the new player for.
If he’s someone who can be a long-term contributor to your team, then the value of the trade doesn’t depend on the outcome of this season. But if you’re sacrificing young talent that could’ve been a part of your future in hopes that the new guy will be a difference-maker to get you to the World Series, and then you don’t make the postseason, the bet can turn out to be a bad one.
It’s not like you have to give up your future to win in 2021.
There are teams clearly trying to win in 2021. And there are teams clearly not concerned with winning. If you are not one or the other then what the heck are you???
No team in the NL East is as good as the Brewers, Giants, Dodgers or Padres…..and maybe the Reds.
Only the division winner will go to the playoffs. It would be a miracle if the NLE representative won a series; for sure they’re not going to the WS. This idea of “getting hot” and “it’s a crapshoot” are mouthed by people that don’t follow all the teams and how they’re playing ball. All the teams in the NLE play sloppy, inconsistent, dumb baseball.
Why any of those teams would mortgage the future to win the division in 2021 is beyond me. It almost guarantees that they get worse in 2022 and beyond. They need to develop the players they have.
Didn’t an NL east team who has playing poorly for most of the season end up winning a championship? Like recently? You can look it up if you want bud.
If you’re referring to the Nationals “bud”…….
I watched most of their games from July on. They were playing the best baseball of anyone in the NL. It’s guys like you that think they “got hot” late in the year.
Thanks for proving my point.
It depends on how your rotation is constructed. The RS, for example, are constructed to have a whole bunch of good, but not great, games. Good for the regular season, not so good for the playoffs. If the Nats were to play SD in a short series, with a healthy Scherzer & Strasburg, they’d stand a good chance.
Same with the NYMs if they have DeGrom, Walker & Stroman going.
@JoeBrady;
Your example would be true in the past.
But the counting of pitches today results in batters working counts and hitting endless foul balls to get the starter up to 100 pitches ASAP (the gameplan of just about every team in MLB). In today’s environment there are no Bob Gibson’s, Sandy Koufax’s, Pedro Martinez’s, etc. all that are going to go 9 innings anymore. At most you get 7 innings out of a starter. To expect all of your 3 top pitchers to do that is unrealistic.
Theoretically, if the NYMs were to open the playoffs at home against SD, with DeGrom pitching, I assume that the Mets would be a solid favorite in the game. And that will happen twice in a five-game series.
Desclafani has done it twice this year, I admit that’s not Bob Gibson but it still gets done from time to time, and I imagine in a elimination game teams may let the pc slide.
Maybe it sends the wrong message to your team.
Maybe your team should play well enough to send a message to the FO and owner(s).
In fact, Bryce Harper said just that about the Phillies this past week.
I understand the Padres though. They can’t develop their own players and are spending money like crazy trying to buy a pennant.
You really only have about 5 days to make up your mind. For some teams, this will be a coinflip. But I wouldn’t trade for a player today, hoping to flip him 5 days from now, if I fall out of contention.
I doubt the Nationals will do anything significant. I would not be surprised if they did not do anything at all, but if they do, my guess is that it will be something small.
If the Nats trade Scherzer, fans will be down on Half Street with torches, pitchforks and a supply of tar and feathers.
Compared to losing him for nothing this off-season?
Unless the Nationals are willing to eat all the remaining contract, any prospect return they’d get for Scherzer would be minimal. And not likely to offset the benefits from retaining him which include supporting the fan base and team morale, plus enhancing whatever slim chance they have at pulling off another late season run.
I think you are underestimating the number of fans that would like the players moved for value. The RS held onto both JBJ and Koji several years back, and I would’ve preferred to have traded both. And I liked both, but I also like to improve my chances for the future as well.
I think you are underestimating Scherzer’s value. Granted, teams wouldn’t want to be on the hook for the deferred money, but you wouldn’t need to eat all of this year to get a better than minimal return. Scherzer would probably be the best SP on the trade block.
“Compared to losing him for nothing this off-season?”
@ jjd0021
With few exceptions teams have learned that trading an established player in their walk year for a couple of so-so prospects seldom turns out well.
More teams are learning that it’s best to keep their veterans through the season. If they’re decent you try to resign them in the offseason (it upends a family to leave the city they’ve been playing in for years in late July……most aren’t thrilled about it and keep it in mind if the team tries to resign them…..they figure out it’ll just happen again). If the FA veteran signs with another team you get a draft choice, and if your scouting staff and FO are on the ball they’ll select a player better suited to what they want then getting another teams prospect.
Didn’t Scherzer already turn down a QO in 2014?
I don’t think anyone in 2021 cares that much about baseball and their team. I don’t believe that. Fans are not exactly rushing to the stands with Scherzer on the team. Are people really going to stop going if he’s traded? I highly doubt it.
Or handguns
Non story
Should be some solid trade rumors out there with less than two weeks to go.
Dude Arizona can’t even figure out how or why to trade Eduardo Escobar. I don’t think this is shaping up for a great trade deadline. Last few years have been kind of pathetic the complacency within the game is incredible.
The expanded playoffs have created more limbo teams. Sure, it improves revenue by having extra playoff games, but makes the deadline less exiting when there are only 4 or 5 teams officially “selling.”
Oh please. Arizona was sellers a long long time ago. Heck they had a deal worked out for Escobar. And weeks later they are suddenly going to get MORE for him than they would have then? Eduardo freaking Escobar???
Sure some teams are on the fence. I get that. But thats not what’s causing the lack of trades over the last few years. It’s a complacency in the game. As a Cardinal fan I see it with Larussa managing the White Sox. He’s not complacent. He wouldn’t have come back if the team was going to act that way. And they sure havent.
What would be the cause of that complacency? If there are only a few teams selling, then the D-backs know their pieces are in more demand, therefore they charge more for it. It’s basic economics.
The MLB’s expanded playoffs have decreased supply while the demand has increased (more teams could contend), this inflates the market. Combine that with limited cash flow last season and you get a stale trade market.
Dude if you like your own comments I won’t talk to you. Just saying.
Tell me why Escobar is worth more today than he was then. Explain that to me.
Yes some teams don’t know what to do. But some teams do. Story said publicly a long time ago he’s not coming back to Denver. The Marlins said, again publicly, that Marte isn’t coming back. At that point what is the holdup? These players don’t get more valuable by the day they get less valuable. 11 days away from the deadline and the biggest deal so far happened a month or 2 ago with Adames. That’s lame.
Steve Nebraska
The expanded playoffs have created more limbo teams.
=======================================================
As much as the writers like to whine about the numbers of teams that tank, there are still 17 teams within 5 games of the playoffs.
Joel, is your solution to just hold teams at gunpoint and force them to trade?
Yes, most of trades are reported “after” the deadline.
Last minute deals that supposedly made it by the deadline.
I think the Nats fan would realize that they are out of it and although it would a tough letgo,they are smart enough to realize the Max era is over. Get something for him than lose him.
Deivi Garcia & Nick Nelson would be a nice chips.
@dave. This is Max Scherzer who also has quite a bit of salary left this year and the Yankees are going to want to stay under the luxury tax even though Hal denies it. So if the Yanks want Max they are going to have to give to get which means Jasson Dominguez as well. It’s the only way they get the Nats ace and future 1st ballot hall of famer and get the Nats to cover enough of Max’s salary to stay under the luxury tax. Deivi and Nick Nelson are not enough but a start. I do applaud you though for not offering up the usual Andujar/Frazier proposal. I cannot say I’m impressed at all with Nelson myself.
Dominguez would be an extreme overpay for a rental even one as good as Max. This isn’t 2015/16. ( I am not a Yankees fan )
@marko. I agree it’s a overpay and Max already received a qualifying offer with the Tigers. My point is the Yankees really want to stay under the luxury tax so they will need to basically sell a high prospect to have a team such as the Nats cover the majority of a superstars remaining salary. I don’t believe the Yankees will go over the limit even though Hal denied that.
Giving up that much talent for a rental, in the position NY is in, makes no sense. They’re 4 back in the WC and 7 in the division. I get the point you’re trying to make, but them making that kind of trade doesn’t seem prudent.
1984
Exactly. The only way I see teams like the Jays/Yankees/Seattle giving up multiple Top 10 prospects is if it involves a player(S) with multiple years of control coming back. No smart GM will mortgage their future for a one and done shot at a wild card.
Deivi Garcia and Nick Nelson for Max Scherzer? The Nationals would block the Yankees phone number after that. I swear where do you Yankee fans get the idea that other teams want your garbage for their best player. A Scherzer trade would have start with Clarke Schmidt, Garcia, and Florial with a controlable reliever like Green
You do realize that Max comes with only 2 months of control right? The surplus value on that trade proposal is so lopsided in the Nationals favor to be nonsensical.
Yeah…that’s as bad as the proposal you’re mocking
How do you figure the Nats are out of it? They’re 5 games back and they face the Marlins and the Orioles before a run of division games. The Mets have a brutal 13-game stretch in August with four back-to-back series against the Dodgers and the Giants. The Nats’ only remaining games with the NL West are against the Rockies. The Nats also are done with their games against the Rays and the Yanks.
The Mets remain the favorites, but it’s not unreasonable today to say the Nats have a shot.
Kind of hard to believe that any NL East team (except the Marlins) is out of it. The Nats, Phillies and Braves are all within reach of the Mets.
Scherzer & Hand to Toronto.
If they can get Scherzer to extend they at minimum could get Lourdes Gurriel and a prospect like Otto Lopez.
Doesn’t sound like much but that would be a haul since Hands arm could blow.. If they get a catcher thrown in Washington would be crazy not to jump.
When your division is so tight a trade 2 weeks before the deadline could change your season.. makes no sense to wait .. unless you aren’t serious about taking a chance to win
Would it be a little romantic to see the Red Sox trade for Lester? Back rotation and swing man, they could probably aim for Hand as well
There’s no romance in baseball!
Haha disagree there mate
A hot streak in the days before the deadline will give some NL East team (Philadelphia, Washington, or Atlanta)the hope that they may actually have a chance this year. They will send away their prospects for a rental and immediately lose 6 in a row causing them to be further out. The season ends with them missing the playoffs and losing some prospects for nothing.
I’m a Nats fan. We don’t have enough prospects to do much in the trade market, especially when Rizzo has stated that both Cavalli and Rutledge are untouchable. Even if Strasburg gets healthy the rest of the season, Corbin, Ross, Fedde and Lester have all had issues. With Castro now being pretty much gone, they also need an upgrade at 3B.
Every team in the division is flawed, and I’m sure it’s tempting for Rizzo to make a push to catch the mets. Realistically, I would trade Harrison, Hand and Hudson, hold on to Max and try to extend him for a few years, and hope that the Lerners will give me enough money to fill holes via FA this winter.
That being said, Rizzo has never jumped fully into sell mode at the deadline, so if I had to place a bet, it would be that he will stand pat, or make one minor trade that offers little upside.
Papabueno: Bullpen rentals like Hand/Hudson (and even Harrison 2B) are an ideal match for the WSox needs. Native Chicagoan Rizzo and Hahn can make something happen if Nats don’t like where they are next week.
I imagine getting to finish out the season with an actual contender should be enough of a “contract inducement” to convince Max to approve a trade.
I would be absolutely thrilled if the Dodgers pull off a trade for Scherzer. Crossing fingers that Washington goes that route! (Even if a long-shot) And if Bauer is taken off the books, Dodgers could re-sign him. Baseball Gods, do your thang!