With the unofficial second half of the season set to kick off tomorrow night, it’s worth taking a moment to look at the current standings. If the season were to end today, the American League postseason field would consist of the White Sox, Astros, Red Sox, Rays and A’s. The National League entrants would be the Giants, Brewers, Mets, Dodgers and Padres.
In all likelihood, though, that field will change a bit over the coming months. According to FanGraphs’ playoff odds, the probability of all ten current would-be playoff teams reaching the postseason is just 14.9%. With that in mind, we’ll turn it over to the MLBTR readership to opine on which teams stand the best chance of making a run and unseating a member of the postseason picture.
For simplicity’s sake, we’ll exclude any team with postseason odds below 3%. That rules out the Nationals, Cardinals, Twins, Marlins, Orioles, Tigers, Royals, Rangers, Pirates, Rockies and Diamondbacks.
American League
Yankees (46-43, playoff chances: 40.4%)
It has been a disappointing season to date for a Yankees team that entered the year with World Series aspirations. The lineup, one of the league’s best on paper, has been thoroughly average to this point. The rotation has been similarly middle-of-the-pack, although that was a bit more foreseeable. The bullpen was one of the league’s best early but has hit a skid recently. With all the talent on the roster, the Yankees feel like they should be better, but their +1 run differential reinforces that they’ve played at a merely OK level so far.
Blue Jays (45-42, playoff chances: 34.5%)
The Jays have had an elite offense all year. They had four All-Star position players, three of whom started for the American League. They’re among the top 5 teams in runs scored and wRC+. The pitching has been less impressive, although the rotation and bullpen are both among the top 15 units in ERA. The Jays have had some ill-timed relief issues, though. A 6-10 record in one-run games (including a 2-5 mark in extra innings) has them just three games over .500 despite the AL’s fourth-best run differential.
Angels (45-44, playoff chances: 15.1%)
There’s no doubting the Angels’ high-end position player talent. Getting Mike Trout back to join Shohei Ohtani, Jared Walsh and Anthony Rendon will make them one of the more fearsome middle-of-the-order groupings. The ever-persistent question is on the pitching staff. Angels starters rank just 25th leaguewide with a 5.04 ERA, and the relief corps hasn’t been much better. The defense hasn’t done the pitchers many favors. Despite the quality lineup, the Angels have been outscored by 26 runs.
Indians (45-42, playoff chances: 6.6%)
The Indians hung around the AL Central for quite a while despite an underwhelming offense. A strong bullpen and a trio of quality starting pitchers kept the team in games, but Cleveland lost each of Shane Bieber, Aaron Civale and Zach Plesac to the injured list. Plesac’s back, but the team has predictably sputtered without their top pitchers. They’re still only 4.5 games back in the Wild Card race, but they’ll have to turn things around against a tough schedule coming out of the Break.
Mariners (48-43, playoff chances: 3%)
Seattle’s offense has been a weak point this season. Only the Rockies have a lower team wRC+, although the M’s have hit well enough with runners in scoring position to plate runs at a near-average rate. Both the rotation and bullpen have higher-than-average ERA’s, and the Mariners -50 run differential is the worst among plausible contenders. The projections are highly skeptical they can keep up that kind of high wire act (hence the low odds), but those wins can’t be taken away and the Mariners enter the second half closer to the playoffs than anyone else in the AL discussion.
(poll link for app users)
National League
Reds (48-42, playoff chances: 22.2%)
The Reds have been the National League’s analogue of the Blue Jays. The lineup has been good, ranking sixth in wRC+ and eleventh in runs. The rotation has been solid. Bullpen issues have been Cincinnati’s undoing, as Reds relievers have MLB’s fourth-worst ERA. The Reds are 3.5 games back in the Wild Card race and four back in the NL Central and were playing well leading up to the Break.
Phillies (44-44, playoff chances: 17.8%)
The Phillies lineup has a few stars, but it’s been rather top-heavy and a middle-of-the-pack unit overall. It’s the same story in the rotation, where the back end has continued to be problematic. And the bullpen has blown a league-worst 22 saves. It has been a good core surrounding by a weak enough complimentary cast to keep the team hovering around average. That’s been a common refrain in Philadelphia over the past couple seasons, but few teams can match the Phils’ top-end talent.
Braves (44-45, playoff chances: 7.5%)
One of the more disappointing teams of the first half, Atlanta entered the year as a World Series hopeful but hasn’t gotten into a groove. The lineup has been good, although the loss of Ronald Acuña Jr. is certainly going to be tough to overcome. Starting pitching has been fine but unspectacular, but the bullpen — as with the Reds and Phillies — has been an issue in Atlanta. At +19, the Braves have the best run differential in the NL East, but a 2-6 record in extra-inning games has contributed to them underperforming in the standings.
Cubs (44-46, playoff chances: 4.1%)
The Cubs were in the thick of the NL Central race a few weeks ago. An 11-game losing streak knocked them well back in the standings, though. The current lineup still has some high-end talent, and the bullpen has been great this year. But the rotation has predictably proven an issue, and it seems likely the front office will move some players off the big league roster in the coming weeks.
(poll link for app users)
what at all about Seattle is sustainable?
I can’t see the Cardinals. Oops they are not in the list, but the Cubs are in the list when they are most likely to sell at the trade deadline. Lets have
faith on the Cardinals. We might play better in the second half of the season. Believe in the Cards.
yeah honestly i still like the Cards for the division
What koolaid are they serving in StL, they suck
rest of the divison is mediocre
The Cards are 8 games behind mediocrity. What does that make the Cardinals?
They can’t hit, have meh starting pitching, and have a good BP. That ain’t getting it done.
The Cards are a well run organization that is having an off year and will likely bounce back by next season.
0% chance the Cardinals get passed Milwaukee. Milwaukee always picks up, albeit not the most impact, a bat during the deadline that seems to work out. Their pitching is already World Series capable. And I personally am not a Brewers fan, they just seem to have their formula figured out.
True. But that has no bearing on the fact they are awful this year. The Brewers won’t be caught.
Don’t see the Cardinals overtaking the Brewers and the Reds. Cards are -40 on run differential, and still have 10 games left vs the LAD, SFG, and SDP.
Cards suck this year but die hard fan won’t admit it
The Cards lost 4 of 5 starters plus Carlos Martinez and Jordan Hicks. Yeah, it’s kinda hard to win when that happens. They have also been without their starting outfield for almost all of the first half. When Bader came back from his latest injury it was the first time the starting lineup was available. Hudson, Flaherty, Mikolas, Martinez, and Hicks are out for the year unless by some miracle some of them they come back by September. Flaherty may come back but if they are not close to first place they should just be careful with these guys.
Every team has injuries this season, which is a real battle of attrition. Cards fans, it is okay if your team doesn’t make the Post Season once in a while.
The Cardinals are going to need major turn around and production from virtually everyone in the lineup if they hope to contend. They need more consistent production from everyone offensively, they need the pitching to stay solid, Its not outside of the realm of possibility but is very unlikely they are gonna turn it around.
Adding cal Raleigh and jarred kelenic this week helps, but yea playoffs are a long shot this year. 3% chance tho
I think they should have a better shot than the Loas Angeles Angels {opinion}:
It will be interesting to see What Jerry Dipoto does. Maybe something good since this is the end of his contract. Then Dipoto says they have money to spend, turns around, and say next year they have $19m, but if they pick up Kikuchi there goes $16m.
I would really like to know how much money they have cap-wise? I mean the bulk of the roster is peanuts. Personally, Seattle doesn’t need to get sentimental with Jerry Dipoto. Let him go and get someone that will build the team. Well, maybe it is not Dipoto, maybe it is the ownership. Don’t know, past several years they keep saying they have money but never spend.
So you’re saying there’s a chance?
Offense has been very inconsistent but the late inning bullpen is lights out now that they’re not using Montero. Run differential isn’t all telling when they’ve had a half dozen games they lost by 8+ runs. The majority of games are close and if they get to the late innings even or better they are winning. If they add a bat or two, they could surprise.
The -50 run differential.
I think that they have a better chance than the Los Angeles Angels…pathetic team. Even when they put money out they can’t win.
well yeah, i just think the top two will pull away
I see a shift coming for the Angels in the next couple of years. They’ve invested heavily in drafting pitchers for several years and that should pay dividends soon. Hopefully for their fans it’ll be soon enough to still leverage the quality years of their stars like Trout, Rendon amd Ohtani.
Oakland has been the best second half team of the last decade or so (comparatively to their own first halves, maybe not overall) – what in the same of casual are you picking the Mariners (AGAIN) over them?
Why does every media outlet constantly pick Seattle to win when they literally never do, and Oakland does? No respect smh….
Mariner’s fan here… I liken them to the housing market in ’07. Still I wish them all the best
The Cardinals are NOT a well run organization. Most overrated front office in MLB, and it’s not even very close in my opinion. Endless amounts of bad decisions – awful trades, awful extensions, awful free agent signings, awful decisions on letting players walk away in free agency… the list is quite long if you actually go back and evaluate all of their moves over the past 5+ years. Sorry Cards fans, it’s truly nothing personal. I’ve been to a few Cardinals games in St. Louis and thoroughly enjoyed myself, and I respect how devoted the Cardinal fan base is. That being said, this has been a poorly run organization for some time now. It’s not very deniable.
In the playoffs the last two years. Haven’t finished under .500 in over ten years. Overrated? Perhaps. Poorly run? Wouldn’t say so.
I’m not necessarily saying that they’ve been a “bad” team the past few years, or even that they are as bad this year as some have claimed. They’ve still had plenty of talent, developed some great prospects, and made some decent moves here and there. My only point is that there have been a lot of sloppy moves as well, and that’s the difference between this current Cards team being “alright” versus elite. This team should be EASILY one of the better teams in the NL this season, but those bad moves have them toiling in mediocrity, at least for the time being.
SEA is projected to be 5 under .500 after the break. Of course a hot Kelenic and a couple trades could move the needle some, but not enough imo
Mariners are built for 2022 and beyond. Anything that shows a bit of promise this year is good, as you can see the pieces in place for a stretch of playoff runs ahead. They’re better than .500 with a lot of guys in their first or second year in the league, so they’re off to a good start.
Why place the Cubs on the list and not the Cardinals? They have the same record and the two teams have 4 games against each other in Busch.
Agreed, plus the Cards will likely be stubborn to sell whereas the Cubs look likely to sell.
Edit: looks like they did it based off of Fangraphs playoff odds
Yeah, if I were personally ranking the teams, I’d have the Nationals’ and Cardinals’ odds above the Cubs’, especially with the expectation that Chicago will sell. But I wanted to use a more objective methodology than my personal gut feeling and just had to draw the line at some point, since there’s no use talking about teams like the Diamondbacks for something like this.
Love for this Cubs team is ridiculous.
Cubs have won a WS, been to playoffs multiple times, and we’re competing a month ago. To say love for them is ridiculous is ridiculous. The team has been highly inconsistent, but still have a higher ceiling than the Cards have shown.
The Angels? Ha
Agreed. I already foresee Maddon burning out Ohtani in a meaningless September start throwing 118 pitches.
@RJNarvick Pretty misinformed statement. The reason the Angels have a 6 man rotation is to limit Ohtani’s innings. We are past the halfway point and Ohtani has 67 innings pitched. If Ohtani gets injured, it won;t be from overuse on the mound.
The Mariners probably have a better chance to get to the playoffs than the Los Angeles Angeles. Angels spend money and still can’t win, can’t ever seem to build a good pitching staff.
But neither have a chance in the West.
Proudveteran – As opposed to the M’s who spend money and win?! The M’s are one of the worst franchises in the game. I find it hilarious reading your constant replies knocking down the Angels. The M’s will collapse in the 2nd half as they normally do. And the Angels will finish around .500 and miss out on the Wild Card.
Blue Jays probably make the most sense but I said Angels. I just have a feeling.
I would have said none of the above for the NL, but the Reds, I guess. They’re hitting and the pitching could get better just with the guys on the roster.
The Nats get Strasburg and Schwarber back after the break and the Mets have a tougher remaining schedule. It’s unlikely the Nats will catch the Mets, but it’s not out of the question.
@drewnats The Nationals were the only team in the NLE to get hot at any point. You definitely can’t count them out. I still like the Mets, but they’re 1 sweep away from losing their lead.
The Mets also play a 13 game stretch in August against the Giants and Dodgers only. That could potentially bury them
Could also expose the Giants, who I think are due for second half regression.
I think regression is possible but I also don’t see the Mets (or any team in the NL East) as a legitimate threat to any of the three in the NL West
The Nats still have 11 games against the Mets. If they can make up ground then the 5 game series at Nationals park over Labor Day weekend could decide the division
Nats could do to the Mets what the Mets did to them in ‘15.
I actually think Carrasco will help the Mets rotation, and the lineup will hit closer to their career norms… I see the Mets pulling away more than blowing it (barring a degrom injury)
These polls were so dumb. The title of the post is – most dangerous 2nd half team. Then when you click the poll it asks for who is most likely to make the playoffs.
I wanted to vote the Nats as the most dangerous 2nd half team. Come on, mlbtr. Do better.
The A’s are ALWAYS the most dangerous second half team, and this season is no different. They basically played scrub AAAA-types in the first half and have most of their ready-now prospects (Luzardo+Puk) at AAA who will rejoin them later. The A’s have all the hallmarks of a dominant second half (again) and yet (again) we have to hear about how the Mariners are more dangerous when reality is they never ever are.
Stop doing this: respect the A’s for once in your life.
A’sfan: i’m a life long Angels fan but I agree completely. They look like a different team after the all-star game, year in year out. I see it firsthand.
Who is disrespecting the A’s? The teams listed are those *not* in the playoffs as of now.
La has Bauer but yakees have soriano and a 1-2 punch. Much more dangerous.
Hahahaha
Bauer may be the dodgers 4th best starting pitcher…
Can’t say the same for the Yankees
Who is Soriano?
LA had Bauer. He’s not gonna be back on the field this year.
Or possibly ever
LA has Bauer? Um, you might wanna do a quick google search. Prepare yourself: it’s pretty ugly. (As I post this I realize you were probably kidding).
The Jays would be at least 10 games over .500 if it weren’t for the bullpen meltdowns. They have the best projected record in the AL East based on run differential. Stabilize the bullpen and they could go on a big 2015-like run.
I agree on the Jays. They will go big at the trade deadline,
I think that you are correct!
They also have little reason to maintain a deep farm system. The core aside from Guerrero, Manoah, Bichette is actually older than most realize. Guys like Springer, Teoscar Hernandez, and Ryu are at their peak or declining most likely. Gotta go now. Empty the system for controllable pitching (2-3 years ideally) and go for it.
The Rays have the best ALE Run differential. Where do you get your facts from?
He said they have the best projected record in the division based on run differential, which includes things like remaining strength of schedule. The Rays have a better RD right now, but the Jays projected record is better (per Fangraphs).
“Projected.” Sure, because that truly matters.
Jay’s need to go big ! Go get Bieber from Indians w a Pearson and either groshans or Martin combo +2 more prospects. Indians will bite on that. Jay’s have Bieber for 3 1/2 seasons if they can’t extend.
Jay’s could also easily persuade Indians to throw in a reliever too with that package of prospects.
Cleveland has a strong farm system and is facing a 40 man roster crunch this offseason. Trading Bieber, Ramirez, or any controllable player makes no sense for the Indians at this time or they would risk losing several prospects to the rule 5 draft. For those who think this is not important, wouldn’t Santander of Baltimore look good in Cleveland’s outfield, but he was lost in the rule 5 drafts a few years ago.
I don’t understand where people get this notion that the Indians would move someone like Bieber/Ramirez. They have the type of contract that the Indians covet. Why would they move that? Smh
Lmao “if they weren’t bad, they’d be good!”
Same goes for the Reds. Especially the 1-5 season record against Arizona.
My picks: Blue Jays and Reds.
It seems that the Yanks and Braves have both been thoroughly stabbed in the heart this season. Both are unlikely to make the postseason imo, which would’ve been crazy talk 6 months ago (I know, Metsfan22 has been saying it all along).
he lucked into that one.
One last warning, fellas.
Yanks ain’t done yet. Don’t get all those hopes up.
Sorry, the Yankees are done. They are 9 games out of the division lead and 5.5 games out of the wild card spot. And are chasing one of the hottest teams in the 2nd half that last couple of years in the Oakland A’s, not to mention they would also have to leap frog over Toronto and the wild card leading Rays. Their record in division vs the top teams is 11-21 and have lost 7 straight to the Red Sox and have 12 games left vs the Sox and would need to play better than .500 ball to have a chance. They would also need to win their series vs the A’s and Mariners.
Sure miracles can happen as we witness with my Red Sox in 2004. But this team isn’t the dominating team that lit the world on fire in the 2nd half of 2019. Nor is it the same team we saw in 2020. This year’s team is missing too many pieces and mostly likely won’t have necessary pieces to add to the team like the teams above them can.
The Phillies and Braves aren’t the best teams on this list, but they are in the weakest division. I can see Phillies, Braves or Nats making the playoffs because while the Mets are clearly the best team in the NLE right now, they haven’t put on a significant streak all year. Anyone of those teams can got hot and take the division. The Mets are still my pick, don’t get me wrong, but that’s anyone’s division.
You can’t be serious about the Braves having any kind of chance. Yes, it’s anyone’s division, but they’re out of that talk. It’s the Nats and Phils that will challenge the Mets.
Definitely not out of it. They suffered some brutal injuries, and lost 3 silver sluggers in their lineup, but they still have enough talent to go on a run.
Unless they are adding at the deadline, I really don’t think I can agree that they do. They have lost quite a bit of talent this year.
No they don’t. Their outfield is full of AAAA types, their starting staff is injury-prone and the bullpen is unreliable. Dansby Swanson and Austin Riley are barely keeping their heads above water and catching is a mess. It would take divine intervention for them to win 80 games, let alone make the playoffs.
I wouldn’t count out the Braves getting hot, even without Acuna.
Because you’re a smart Mets fan, Cosmo. The Mets are still the rightful favorite, but this is a close race…at least for the time being.
The division is not a race. The NL east sucks but it has one elite team. (About to finally get healthy). The Mets….. lead will be double digits soon.
There seems to be some confusion regarding this article. The teams weren’t picked at random. These teams were based on FanGraphs’ playoff odds.
Imagine people actually reading a lead in paragraph
It was only underlined and in red, should have used all Caps with a different font and lots of exclamation marks.
I’m fully convinced that on the internet, people skip to the comments section.
I can see the Cubs try to make it interesting as they seem to be a streaky club, but in many of the teams I have seen that are streaky its usually due to a manager and staff that cannot keep the team out of the slumps.
pretty difficult to make an educated guess when we haven’t seen if they are going to go all in and try to win.. by trades.. or if they are going to just go thru the motions… like your ex.. maybe the question should be who is going to try the hardest to get to the post season???…
None of the above for either league. A lot has to go right for any of those AL teams to make it, and one of the Red Sox, Rays, or A’s to fall apart. In the NL i can’t see the wild card teams not coming out of the NL west and the Cubs, Reds and Braves all possibly being sellers at the deadline
The A’s are going to have the best or close to the best second half record in MLB, again.
And they still won’t be within 6 games of Houston.
Why would the Reds be sellers at the deadline? They’re four games back of the Brewers after taking the last 3 games of a 4 game series in Milwaukee. The Reds face the Brewers for three games in Cincy coming out of the break. They have a winning record against every other team in the NL Central. I don’t see them being sellers.
All indications point to them being buyers, in fact. SS and bullpen are their chief concerns right now.
Definitely wish there was a “None of the above” option. I truly believe the AL teams are all set. The only drama will come from who wins the West/East and who has to face off in the wild card.
Maybe I’m in the minority but I truly believe the NL is more set in stone than the AL. I’d be shocked if the Brewers don’t win the central, I think the Mets win the East purely out of the division being so weak/riddled with injuries and I feel safe saying both wild cards come from the West
It will be interesting to see What Jerry Dipoto does. Maybe something good since this is the end of his contract. Then Dipoto says they have money to spend, turns around, and say next year they have $19m, but if they pick up Kikuchi there goes $16m.
I would really like to know how much money they have cap-wise? I mean the bulk of the roster is peanuts. Personally, Seattle doesn’t need to get sentimental with Jerry Dipoto. Let him go and get someone that will build the team. Well, maybe it is not Dipoto, maybe it is the ownership. Don’t know, past several years they keep saying they have money but never spend.
In the NL I feel like the Phillies have the clearest path to a postseason berth if they are quasi aggressive with patching holes on their roster at the trade deadline.. I think the Phillies should be trying to make a deal with the Pirates for Richard Rodriguez and Tyler Anderson as a package to help stabilize the back of their bullpen and rotation with one move. I don’t know much about the Phillies system but I think Johan Rojas, Erik Miller and a third piece lottery ticket should be fairly equal terms, at least a solid starting point for discussions.
People don’t like it when the Mariners exceed their expectations. What’s everyone’s problem with the Mariners winning anyway? The curse of Jeff Mathers is over so you can’t blame the front office. Maybe have this poll again after the trade deadline after the Mariners pick up some guys. Trey Mancini, Jose Berrios and Nelson Cruz would be nice
When have the Mariners exceeded expectations since 2001?
They’ve had teams that were far worse than anyone expected them to be, so there’s that…
I meant to say Kevin Mather not Jeff Mathers*
The Mariners have exceeded expectations lots of times, especially this year. You can’t keep expecting the Mariners to lose just because they’ve lost in the past. It’s clear they are built for the future and they’re ready to win now
Are you sure you didn’t mean Jerry Mathers as the Beaver?
Anyone scoffing at the Angels have clearly not watched their games. They’re above .500 with Trout and most of Rendon out much of the season. Upton has been spotty with health and their pitching staff and bullpen have been terribly inconsistent. Basically Ohtani and Walsh (and guys like Stassi) have carried this team. With Trout and Rendon returning by months end, this team can be dangerous.
…
This is all predicated on a sizable pitching move at the deadline. They could use a Kyle Hendricks from the Cubs and a Richard Rodriguez (Pirates) in the bullpen. One piece each would really button up this team.
And what are they giving the Cubs in return for Hendricks? Adell? Marsh? Both? More? Three years of Controll on Hendricks is not going to come cheap
Adell and Marsh both? Now that’s funny. One would be more than enough. 😉
Yup, Angels have no trade chips at all, curious as to how their fans can think they can get any star player when they refuse to put Adell and Marsh on the table. Casual takes as usual from them smh
“Predicated on a sizable pitching move” are words that hang over the Angels all the time. It’s been their downfall. Will that change now?
The Angels probably will make a sizable pitching move at some point… they’ll still lose.. and having given up future assets they’ll only have made it more difficult to win in the next couple years. They’ll sign one big name contract and continue to flounder. If that organization has a plan, it’s a bad one.
Other targets include John Means and Danny Duffy. Unlike Hendricks, they are FA at years end and can provide LH value in the Halo rotation. They’ve been injured but are coming back, but that should help keep their value lower. And no, Adell nor Marsh would need to be included for either a Means or Duffy rental. None of us are GMs, so throwing out scenarios like Hendricks for Adell and Marsh shows just how little we know.
Means is not a free agent at the end of the year. Baltimore controls him for three more years. I don’t see him traded.
You’re correct. Means is a FA in 2025. I got caught up in the Means discussions and assumed he was a FA at years end (like Bundy). The point is that the Angels have some options and don’t have to give up the farm to acquire a pitcher.
Cubs chance of making the playoffs hinge on the Brewers Reds Giants Padres Phillies Braves and quite possibly Cardinals all stop playing the rest of the season. Ridiculous wishing.
I know the Mariners are a few games above .500, but I don’t think they’re ready to contend this year. They should be sellers instead and add more prospects to their farm system. I think they’ll have a shot at a Wild Card next year and if that works out then they could start signing and trading for big name players during the 2022-23 off-season.
Reds have 6 key players injured now, 4 pitchers and 2 position. If only 3 of them can make it back by end of July they’ll have a significant chance.
Gray and Lorenzen will be back at the end of this week. Hoffman soon thereafter. They’re saying late July for Antone. Sims looks iffy. Question is can Lorenzen and Antone stay healthy moving forward? Gray should be fine.
Me and earmbrister been telling y’all all season that The Big Red Machine is back ! They will continue their dominance over the brew crew this week, get healthier, and they have 4 impact players ready to make their debut down the stretch in Greene loldolo berraro and ashcraft.
Watch out for em !
I still think the Nats are the most “dangerous” NLE team if their SP shores up. Although they could also flounder, they’ve already shown they can pull off a hot stretch too. Depth everywhere is a big challenge for them, so I’m not sure they are likely to make the playoffs. Maybe it’s a quibble but that’s different than being “dangerous.”
It’s not like the other candidates in the NL aren’t seriously flawed too.
Yea. Again the odds are based on FanGraphs projections which includes things like strength of remaining schedule and projected run differential. That’s why you see the Phillies higher than the Nats. It doesn’t mean anyone thinks the Nats aren’t as good. It’s just based on a specific formula.
I picked the Jays and Braves. The Jays desperately need bullpen help, but with Stratton, Rodriguez, and Kimbrel out there, among others, they have options.
I know the Braves are an odd pick after Acuna went down, but I have the feeling the FO will make a splash and trade for KB or some other star rental. If the Braves can rally as a team, there’s still an outside chance at the playoffs.
How can you not say the best second half team of the last decade, the A’s, are suddenly not going to flame out when most of the team has been hurt or in bad form, and most are getting healthy and coming into form? Hugest miss of this post. Disrespectful and casual, straight up. Writer has to be better than this going forward.
What are you talking about?
Or you could start actually reading the article. It says that if the playoffs started today, the A’s would be in there, then goes on to say the article is to discuss which non-playoff teams have the best chance of entering the picture.
Again, this wasn’t an opinion piece. They are using FanGraphs rankings which are based on current standings and a statistical formula for the remainder of the year. Teams like the A’s, who are already in the playoffs, aren’t being counted here…this is for teams who aren’t a threat currently,but could be in the 2nd half.
Settle down kid, read the article.Its for teams outside looking in. Read and comprehend jeez.
Learn how to punctuate.
Speaking of being better, try reading the posts from now on before commenting. The post explicitly states that it is focused on teams that are not currently in a playoff position.
You’re putting way too much faith in a very small sample.
In 2018 & 2019, the As were definitely better in the second half.
In 2017, they were better in the second half, but still under .500.
In 2014, 2015, and 2016, they were worse in the second half.
I don’t think there is a magic formula there. And, without counting, I’d make a modest wager that Cleveland has a better 2nd half record from 2013-2019.
Plus what team does well in the second half over the years has little effect on predicting who will be better in the second half this year. Is being good in one half over the other a skill now?
Blue Jays could go on a run with nothing but better luck. I don’t think a team popping that run differential stays down forever. They’re like a batter with an unusually low babip.
They need bullpen help, but they can acquire that fairly easily. Aside from that, I agree, they should be a much better team in the second half.
I like the odds that they improve. Add the pen help. It could be derailed by injuries, but it seems like they’ve underperformed by fluke more than normal. Sometimes that never balances out over a season. But they have the hallmarks of a very dangerous team.
Extra innings lottery is total rubbish and it should never have been approved. Throw it in the garbage where it belongs, oh wait a minute, Manfred woke up and it is being thrown in the can. What an utter farce.
I love how the Mariners have a better record than the Yankees but they have a 3% chance at the playoffs and the Yankees have a 40% chance.
Maybe because, in run-differential, the NYYs have a +1, and the M’s have a -50. +1 isn’t very good, hence the less than 50-50 chance, but being outscored by 50 runs in 91 games is not very encouraging going forward.
Tampa Bay
For the poll in the NL, you should have added, none of the above. I don’t think any of these teams have a chance or should be considered ‘dangerous’.
Poll broke
“Most dangerous teams”? Teams going nowhere with nothing to lose who are not taken seriously by an opponent but end up sweeping their opponent.
I think the NL teams are locked. I do think the Dodgers or even Padres overtake the Giants for the division but I think we know our 5 today.
If the Jays can get and stay mostly healthy the rest of the way, acquire one more good starter and a couple more decent bullpen arms, they are my big time second half sleeper pick. They should be a fun team to watch going forward in general, with plenty of exciting young talent still on the way over the next year or two. They’d also be wise to try and sign Robbie Ray to an extension as soon as possible in my opinion, as he looks like he’s finally put it all together for them.
This entire thread is meaningless until after the trade deadline.
For example: if Scherzer gets traded to a team (let’s say like the Angels) and Cole Hamels joins the same squad, how dangerous do they become in the second half. Whether it’s the Angels or anyone else, a few pitchers being traded or signed can change the landscape very quickly.
It’s quite obvious that the 2021 Red Sox are a better version of the 2018 Red Sox. We are beating everybody, often badly. Sale returns. Duran takes over in center. The rest of the machine will keep rolling. Soon we’ll be 30 games over .500, So all of this is interesting, but it won’t matter. The playoff series will again go 4-1 or 4-0. We’re just too good.
good one!
Pull your Sox down below your eyes, it’s blinding you. 😉
Third best run differential in the division. Real powerhouse there.