The latest minor league moves from around the sport…
- The Red Sox outrighted Austin Brice to Triple-A Worcester after the reliever cleared waivers. Brice was designated for assignment yesterday to create roster room for Jarren Duran’s promotion to the big leagues. Since this is the second time Brice has been outrighted off Boston’s 40-man roster this season, he had the option of opting for free agency, but the right-hander has apparently decided to remain with the Red Sox. Over two seasons with the Sox, Brice has a 6.21 ERA over 33 1/3 innings.
- The Red Sox have acquired right-hander Victor Santos from the Phillies, both teams announced. The move officially completes the January trade that saw infielder C.J. Chatham dealt to Philadelphia way back in January. Santos will report to Boston’s Double-A affiliate, and will change organizations less than a week after celebrating his 21st birthday. The righty has looked good over 41 combined innings at high-A and Double-A ball this season, posting a 2.20 ERA and 24.24% strikeout rate while working exclusively as a starter in four Double-A outings.
wait, what the heck? I actually quite like Santos! you trade that for a castoff?
Now you get a taste of the Mets pain when BVW traded reliever prospects with great numbers in the minors for waiver fodder and washed up bums like Ariel Jurado, Todd Frazier and Miguel Castro.
Bloom is like the school bully that keeps stealing lunch money from the same kid every day.
I like it a lot. These under the radar acquisitions were one of Theo’s strengths. I’m not sure if Santos ever amounts to anything, but we didn’t give up anything to get him. I love the idea of having 2-3 decent, minimum wage BP pieces.
Why do you like him? He seems pretty average. He doesn’t throw gas.
i dunno. been very productive overall through the Minors at a young age. Cole Irvin didn’t throw gas and he was one that got away.
Everyone become a Sox fan please
WHITE Sox*
With the passing of each day this team becomes more incomprehensible.
The worst part is that Chatham isn’t even in the Phillies organization anymore.
he actually is. was just released due to procedural matters.
I would have been happy with an orange peel and a crushed Tab can for Chatham. Keep scratching those lottery tickets!
So the January trade happened way back in January, eh?
Santos doesn’t have a track record to be excited about or to be upset about. Give him a year and lets see if he has any skills.
It’s really sad that the best acquisition we can talk about this week is a guy who is too young to judge. Not exactly an IMPACT player. Glad to see Houck back. Far more to talk about with regard to Houck versus Santos.
With all the injuries in baseball I still can’t believe there have been next to none for the Red Sox. Even E-Rod is maintaining his health better than expected while guys like DeGrom can’t put back to back games together without a minor injury impacting his performance and Glasnow is lost for the season. It’s weird sailing with clear skies ahead and a massive black cloud sneaking up from behind.
Injuries and big slumps have been avoided so far (black clouds) lets hope they continue to be avoided for the next 2 1/2 months..
“It’s really sad that the best acquisition we can talk about this week”
No, it actually isn’t sad.
It’s the same as in real life. Grand slams are hard to come by. It is a lot easier to continue to acquire and develop complementary pieces.
JB – I think you said it all in your comment. It’s easier to acquire crap than actual impact players. Why would fans expect Bloom to do his job? Oh yeah, he’s getting paid to do it. He’s not being paid to avoid difficult tasks but to actually add impact players where and when needed. I believe that’s the role of a GM.
The team is fading and by the time Sale gets back the 5 games ahead of the last playoff spot could be gone.
Where do they need an upgrade? Lets see Verdugo, Duran and Renfroe isn’ t the outfield of a championship team, it’s not even close to the old Benny, JBJ and Mookie outfield so a middle of the line-up corner outfielder would improve the team. A SP is always a big plus and there are several available. A true closer so they can let Ottavino stay in the 8th and move Barnes back to the 7th where he is better suited is another way to upgrade the pitching.
You don’t experience the type of luck they’ve had this year very often so not taking advantage of the good fortune would be a huge mistake. Think how the luck of 2018 flipped to the crap that happened in 2019. 2022 is likely to be like 2019 especially with Cora as manager and Bloom N Doom as GM unwilling to get impact players. Now is the time to upgrade to stay in the running for a playoff spot in 2021.
KD17
JB – I think you said it all in your comment. It’s easier to acquire crap
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Of course, I didn’t say that in my comment. I said ‘complementary pieces’ You know that, I know that, and everyone in here knows that. Lying as a debate tool only works in politics, not in baseball.
IRT Duran, I’d have kept in the minors and let Kike continue to play CF. But bringing him in against righties, to let him develop, also has its merits.
IRT bringing in a closer, absolutely not. Our BP is 4th in the league in ERA, with slightly weaker peripherals. We have 6 regulars guys with an ERA of 3.90 or less, and 4 with ERAs below 3.00.
In addition, the cost for an RP better than Barnes is pretty expensive. If I were going to bust the payroll cap, or trade real prospects, I’d be aiming for a #1 type of SP.
I’m glad that you have finally seen the obvious, and are now looking at the RS as a WS contender, instead of that ’70 wins is a fantasy’. But if I am going to trade for anyone, it’ll be Scherzer or Castillo, and those are likely to be 7/30 decisions.
JB – Complimentary pieces? Seriously? Can you be anymore vague? I translated your comment. Lying would be saying it made sense or was clear.
Historical stats are great but they don’t win games. Everyone knows the bullpen is exceeding their skill set except Ottavino so not adding to it means you want the luck to continue but luck is just that … it’s luck. It can change or go away any day. Proven relievers over guys with nearly 4.00 ERAs isn’t something good? Keep the four below 3.00 and get a real closer before Barnes start costing the team wins like he has done historically.
Worried about costs? Seriously? The team made hundreds of millions of dollars in profits. They threw away their franchise player and got under the cap so they could spend in 2021 and they aren’t spending or trading to improve the team before the deadline. Bloom’s complacency reminds me of the story of the man who falls off the roof and about half way down someone asks him how things are going and he says great so far. Bloom, like the falling man, is not preparing for the bad things that are going to happen whether that’s injuries, a slump or the non-star players playing back to their skill set.
Not improving the team at a time when it can most benefit them is irresponsible and negligent on Bloom’s part. If you want to blame ownership for not LETTING HIM spend money that’s fine then not making the playoffs can be on them like the Mookie debacle. Either way, the Red Sox fans lose out yet again and ownership makes more profits.
As far as my predictions go, I assumed the big 3 would be good not great. I also did not foresee the amount of luck this year. The talent level is fourth best in the division without Sale so I expected them to be in fourth place. No way to guess the Yankees would crap their pants this year. No way to know for sure that Toronto wouldn’t get home games until August and no way to see Glasnow going down but ALL Boston pitchers staying healthy through mid July. That’s all pure luck.
The Nationals would be insane to trade Scherzer. Castillo is an excellent target but a little known SP from Texas might cost less if you are so worried about money. Rodriguez as a closer would be less than either Scherzer and Castillo and would bolster a bullpen that is playing way over it’s head. Sale and Houck are coming so there is no need for a SP but they are always good to have.
Trade Downs and Wong to Texas for Gibson or Dunning and Nate Lowe. Gibson would cost a pro-rated portion of $10M this year and only $7M next year. He’s a lot better than Richards who costs more. Or go young and trade for Dunning who gives you a Pre-Arb 2 pitcher who looks awesome and a big left handed 1B power bat in Nate Lowe who is Pre-Arb 1!!! There is no foreseeable need for either Downs or Wong so moving depth for needs is a smart move, that’s why Bloom won’t even think of the deal.
The early trade deadline in 2021 changes things so he needs to finally stop sitting on his hands and make a trade for an IMPACT player. The reason he should do it now is that he will beat others to the punch and when it comes to impact players that’s the best way to make sure it happens.
“Complimentary pieces? Seriously? Can you be anymore vague?”
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I keep forgetting that you need everything explained to you.
‘Complimentary pieces’ means guys like Arroyo, Plawecki, Pivetta, Sawamura, and Whitlock. Guys that help you win with close to minimum wage.
CR = Really? You understand that sad in this case can be substituted with the word pathetic or disconcerting or underwhelming. Sad, in this case, isn’t the opposite of happy.
With a 5 game lead over being eliminated from the playoffs it seems odd that you don’t want to acquire talent now or by the deadline, especially with the Yankees beginning to wake up and Toronto moving back into their home field.
Seriously, other than being a jack-ass why make that comment? An intelligent person would disagree with my statement and explain why. I guess the reason is obvious to everyone. hahaha
The problem with the Red Sox is that Perez can barely go 5 innings as well as Garrett Richards. Perez should never have been resigned. He has always been a mediocre pitcher. Richards is not very good either and all they do is kill the bullpen. Perez could not even beat a lousy Yankee lineup. They should release Perez and bring up a rookie.
Perez is 7-6 with a 4.16 ERA, with an ERA of 3.33 over his last 6 starts. No chance he is going anywhere. The innings are an issue, but I am wondering of that is by design to keep these guys strong thru September.
Richards might be gone when Sale returns. But unless we plan on replacing him with Houck, we have no one in the minors that would be a better option than Richards. And, while two starts is kind of meaningless, he’s only allowed 5 ERs n 10 IPs. He might only have 2-3 starts before Sale returns, so I would be disinclined to make a move.
JB – AL34 is right. The rookie is Houck and he’s starting Wednesday. The number of innings pitched by Perez isn’t to stretch him out for the long haul it’s a MUST because he’s getting his butt kicked in so many games. Perez was a relatively inexpensive filler for Sale and E-Rod since Bloom picked him up. Richards was simply a mistake along with so many other Bloom acquisitions. But hey if you think about his track record as if he’s a batter I guess a .250 average isn’t terrible! Haha! Still waiting to see his brilliance for all you Bloom fans.
JD, Bogey and Devers remain the primary reason this miracle season is happening. One goes down and the ship sinks. It may sink without one going down but the precariously small lead over other teams for a playoff spot can easily disappear in the next 68 games (more than 1/3 of a season). So depth needs to be beefed up and an impact player would help fight off the hoard of teams pursuing the playoff spots.
“Perez isn’t to stretch him out for the long haul it’s a MUST because he’s getting his butt kicked in so many games.”
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‘So many games’ equals maybe 4-5 out of 19 starts. The reason why his ERA+ is 112, is because he doesn’t give up as many runs as the average pitcher. LMK if you need the math explained, but basically 112>100.
JB – Here is the real math. The guy has 19 starts and has pitched 88.2 IP. We divide 88.2 by 19 and get 4.2 IP per start!!! That sucks.
More math, if he gives up 2 ER in 4..2 IP his ERA is a borderline 3.85 and he can’t get the win if he doesn’t go 5 IP. In his 19 starts his probability of giving up more than 2 and less than 2 are 50/50 with 7 over and 7 under which accounts for his sub-standard 4.16 ERA. In his 7 wins the team has scored 9, 11, 5, 4, 5, 6 and 7 which totals 43 runs in 7 games so 6.1 runs per game. In his 6 losses the team has scored 1, 1, 1, 4, 2 and 1. In his no decisions, however, the team has scored 6, 4, 6, 5, 1, 5 which means he was bailed out in 4 of 6 no decision gamess so instead of a 7 – 6 record he could have had a 7 – 10 record with a bad 4.16 ERA, a bad 4.51 FIP (Fielding Independent pitching) which happens to be his career FIP which also sucks and a horrendous 1.477 WHIP which also matches his career WHIP which sucks. He walks 3.0 batters per 9 IP compared to Sale who walks 2.1 and Price 2.3 (a guy everyone hates but would be the #2 pitcher if he was still in Boston). FYI, the reason I don’t consider E=Rod elite is because his BBs/9 is even higher than Perez at 3.1` Control issues are facts and E-Rod has had control issues his whole career so they aren’t likely to go away, just like Devers errors.
So for all these reasons I am very comfortable saying Perez sucks and if you think a 4.16 ERA and 1.477 WHIP and 4.51 FIP is good there is no point in discussing this further.
Also, please note, Cora is pulling a Cora (which means a bonehead move) by moving JD Martinez from 3rd to 5th in the order. A similar move on July 31 2018 nearly cost them the ring and now history is reaping itself but with a much lesser team. His one day success will fuel the fire for the changed line-up and will start costing them wins very soon. Apparently, Cora believes he’s the reason they win and his ego will destroy this team because it’s nowhere near as good as the 2018 team.
In his 19 starts his probability of giving up more than 2 and less than 2 are 50/50 with 7 over and 7 under which accounts for his sub-standard 4.16 ERA.
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1-4.16 is not sub-standard. The average ERA for an SP in the AL is 4.42.
2-I’m not sure why you are ignoring the 5 games where he allowed exactly 2 ERs. His ERA in those games is 3.64, more than good enough to win, and we have in fact won 4 of those 5 starts.
3-At the end of the day, we have won 11-18 of his starts, despite him getting slightly less-than-average run support from the team. He is 7-6, with an ERA of 4.12 and an ERA+ of 112. He will range from being a perfectly adequate #3 to a slightly weak #3.
JB – Much better. I like the numbers in your response.
1 – If the team was in the middle of the pack then a 4.42 ERA would be ok but they are in the East and are leading as of today so 4.42 is NOT good. Neither is 4.12! Especially for a #3 SP as you pegged him. He’s a weak #5 SP for a team fighting for first in the AL East.
2 = I didn’t mention the 2 ER games because I considered them average for him. He obviously went slightly more than 4.2 IP in those games since 3.64 is slightly less than 3.85 which is 2 ER in 4.2 IP. That means in his other 14 starts he averaged less than 4.2 IP!! That’s pathetic.
3 – Winning 11 of 18 when he starts is meaningless. That could have happened if he left every game when the team was behind or ahead. It speaks to the offense not his pitching.
His ERA+ of 112 is a joke., Why? Because of injuries this year the quality of pitching is severely reduced so being better than average in a year when pitching is down due to injuries is insignificant. That means he’s better than the minor league players who have filled rosters to replace injured starters like Glasnow, Sale, Severino, Verlander, Kluber and others.
Lets look at some more telling stats – batting average against him .289, On Base Percentage against him is .347 (more than 1 of 3 batters faced!), Slugging percentage against him is .440, OPS (a bogus number you like) is .794.
Many of the stats in part 3 of my response are the worst he has put up in the last several years so you could argue that this is his worst year since his atrocious 2018 season with Texas. That’s why taking a 112 ERA+ out of context is incredibly misleading as a stat.
Look, Is Perez comparable to other contenders’ #3 SP? Let’s check!!
Yankees #3 is Taillon (since Severino and Kluber are out)
Tampa’s #3 is McClanahan (since Glasnow is out but if he comes back it’s Yarborough
Toronto’s #3 is Manoah
White Sox #3 is Rodon
Houston’s #3 is F Valdez (since Verlander is out for the year)
Oakland’s #3 is Montas
Seattle’s #3 is L Gilbert
These are the teams that are contending for the 5 playoff spots. Being better than Baltimore’s #3 or Texas #3 is irrelevant. He needs to be better than those 7 teams fighting for the 5 playoff spots.
Player Record ERA WHIP
Perez 7-6 4.12 1.48
McClanahan 4-3 3.88 1.25
Manoah 2-1 2.90 1.07
Rodon 8-3 2.14 0.90
F Valdez 5-2 3.26 1.32
Montas 8-8 4.33 1.30
L Gilbert 4-2 3.50 0.98
Perez is far behind most other #3 SPs contending for the playoff spots. Only Montas for Oakland is comparable to Perez. Oakland is in the 2nd Wildcard spot and only 3 games behind the Red Sox!!
I stand firm in my belief that Perez sucks and I would suggest that Sale is the only #1 on the team, Eovaldi is the #2, Houck is the #3, Pivetta is the #4, E-Rod is the #5 and Perez is #6 so when Sale comes back Perez should be moved to relief work. I put both Pivetta and Houck ahead of E-Rod because they have shown better control and have lower ERAs and WHIPs.
Sale
Eovaldi 3.57 and 1.20 is right where it should be
Houck 3.38 and 1.28 is outstanding
Pivetta 4.37 and 1.32 is solid but needs to improve
E-Rod 5.19 and 1.33 is terrible
Richards 4.91 and 1.68 is embarrassing
Perez 4.15 and 1.48 is embarrassing
Whitlock, Sawamura, Ottavino are all doing very well and Barnes is far above his actual skill set so everyone needs to pray for his luck to continue.
Looking at the ERAs and the WHIPs of the SPs it’s hard to believe the Red Sox are in first.
E-Rod 5.19 and 1.33 is terrible
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You need to be able to go deeper than looking at the BR stats. Let me explain my approach, which I assume you will ignore.
When I see a mediocre player, having a good season, I check the peripherals to see if he’s been lucky, or just living off of a hot start. That’s a bit like what you are doing with Perez, and that’s perfectly fine.
But you have to do the opposite with good players off to a bad start. That’s the case with ERod. ERod had a 6.21 ERA thru his first 13 starts, but he had a K/W > 4:1. That K/W almost always results in a good ERA. His OPSa was ..836, but that included a BABIP of .383. If you normalized that BABIP to .300, his OPSa becomes .670. Those are close to his career numbers, so a lot of regression was expected.
And, thru his last 5 games, we’ve seen the regression. Over his last 5 games, he has a 2.83 ERA, a .609 OPSa, with a .282. Doing the same exercise, his normalized OPSa becomes .645, again close to his career numbers. Safe to say, he is pitching like a good #2. It’s impossible to predict the effect of a lost season on him, but right now, he is vintage ERod.
JB – Good explanation but arguing that a guy hasn’t been terrible by saying his last 5 starts are trending toward his less than stellar career. is not a convincing argument for E-Rod. His inconsistency has been his one consistent point. He gets hot then gets cold then gets hot etc. His totals are always mediocre but whoever is responsible for marketing him, they’ve done a good job making him seem like he’s better than he has actually pitched. In his CAREER YEAR he had a 3.86 ERA and 1.328 WHIP. mediocre numbers at best. When I pointed out how inflated ERA+ numbers are this year due to the huge number of injuries I showed that Perez’ 112 was meaningless due to the 2021 injury level. With that said, how bad is E-Rod with a 90 ERA+!!!
I don’t completely fault E-Rod for this sub-par year because pressure from the Red Sox forced him to shorten his recovery period from his heart condition. The bad season should have been expected and I pointed that out in December when I suggested that Bloom non-tender him in his last year before free agency. His money was wasted.
Last point, you have a tendency to cherry pick data and once again you’ve done that. 5 starts and the guy should be a #2 SP yet his career numbers suggest a #4 or #5 SP with a career 4.17 ERA and 1.300 WHIP. Small snapshots when a player is doing better than average CAN’T be extrapolated to conclude that’s his NORMAL value. E-Rod is not a great pitcher, he’s barely a good pitcher and Boston had Sale, Price, Porcello ahead of him that would be his proper spot in the rotation. The future shows Sale, Houck and Pivetta being ahead of him.
I am definitely not going to attempt you to interpret numbers. Your hatred runs too deep. But over the past 4 seasons, ERod’s ERA+ has gone from 95 to 109 to 116 to 128, which made him #6 in the Cy Young voting. Believe whatever makes you happy.
Looking at the ERAs and the WHIPs of the SPs it’s hard to believe the Red Sox are in first.
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It is not only NOT hard to believe, it should be expected. I told you the numbers back in March. The RS projected to have a slightly above average ERA, and they are almost exactly at league average. They figured to have a top-3 scoring team, which they roughly have.
It’s not linear, but if you add the two rankings and divide by two, you will generally wind up fairly close to where they finish. It’s fairly simple. If you score more than you allow, you end up over .500.
Specifically, in the RS case, I am more than willing to admit they’ve been a bit lucky. They are +4 on the luck scale. They should be #8 in MLB in winning % rather than #5.
That said, some of this is because Cora is the best manager in baseball. And in this case, he’s been a BP genius so far this year. Virtually every BP button he’s pushed has been spot on. The BP, and the closer, have an outsized effect on your Py W/L.
JB – Again cherry picking. Where was Cora’s magic in 2019? He screwed spring training and the SPs which snowballed into hurting the relievers. He’s a putz. He’s a terrible manager who is only there because Devers’ mother can’t be in the dugout. Suggesting that Cora has won a single game in his managerial career is beyond absurd, it’s the dumbest thing you’ve ever written!!
Luck is just that, Luck. Some years teams have it and others they have none or worse they are unlucky. 2018 had luck and an incredible set of hitters. 2019 had lots of unlucky occurrences but the same set of hitters and the result was radically different. Both years Cora was manager so he experienced lucky and he took actions that created some very unlucky circumstances in 2019.
Now, in 2021, I can’t believe you have suggested Cora is a positive influence. He has been in a key role with two organizations when they won championships and in BOTH cases he cheated. The first thought I have when I see the Red Sox over=performing is “How is Cora cheating this year?” That should be a very common question to fans around the league because of his history. Once a cheater ALWAYS a cheater. He takes the shine off any success they have this year.
Now, in 2021, I can’t believe you have suggested Cora is a positive influence.
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Sorry, but if you want to believe luck runs the world, so be it.
But you should ask yourself, ‘Self, how did I get my prediction about 2021 so wrong, and yet everything Joey B said was correct?’. It’s nothing more than the ability to look at numbers dispassionately.