Though the Twins are getting some notable reinforcements back from the injured list in the coming days, the 26-39 club has a big hill to climb to even approach the postseason race. With this in mind, speculation has swirled around the Twins as a trade deadline seller, and Jose Berrios stands out as a major potential trade chip depending on how big of a reload Minnesota wishes to make.
Berrios has one final year of arbitration eligibility remaining before hitting free agency in the 2022-23 offseason. As to whether or not his time in Minnesota could continue beyond the 2022 season, SKOR North’s Darren Wolfson reports (Twitter link) that the Twins haven’t “initiated any talks in recent weeks” with Berrios’ representatives at Wasserman about a potential contract extension. Of course, this might not be that surprising a detail considering that most players prefer to not discuss contractual matters in-season.
If such extension talks did place, it would seem that the Twins would be making such overtures as something of a last-ditch effort to lock up Berrios, and if a deal couldn’t be reached, the club would be more open to moving him prior to the July 30 trade deadline. The issue with that scenario, however, is that Minnesota isn’t under any immediate pressure to make a decision on Berrios’ future, since he is still under contract through 2022. The Twins could wait until the offseason to shop Berrios to a wider market of interested teams, or they could take the time to revisit extension talks heading into their final year of control over Berrios.
Even if neither a trade or an extension is worked out, it wouldn’t be out of the question that the Twins would just keep Berrios in the fold for 2022. Despite this season’s struggles, it would seem like Minnesota is still planning to regroup and make another run at contention next year, so Berrios has plenty of value in the Twins’ own rotation going forward.
The 27-year-old Berrios is having another solid season, with a 3.49 ERA/3.61 SIERA and an above-average strikeout rate (26%) and walk rate (6.4%) over 77 1/3 innings. The overall Statcast metrics aren’t quite as positive, as Berrios’ xwOBA and hard-hit ball numbers have been subpar for the second consecutive season, but the righty has continued to be a durable and effective arm in the front end of Minnesota’s rotation.
Back in March 2019, Berrios said the Twins had made him an extension offer that he declined, though he was open to more negotiations. “We’re waiting for the best for both sides. If it doesn’t happen this year, maybe next year,” Berrios said. Rather than a contract extension, the two sides went to a hearing the next spring to determine Berrios’ salary for his first arb-eligibility, with the Twins winning the hearing and paying Berrios $4.025MM rather than his desired $4.4MM figure. This past winter, the two sides reached a deal to avoid arbitration, with Berrios receiving a $6.1MM salary for the 2021 season.
Even with another raise in his final arb year, Berrios is still a very affordable option for any team looking for rotation help, which only elevates his trade value. The Twins could be hard-pressed to decline if another club makes a truly spectacular trade offer for Berrios, despite his importance to the 2022 team. Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, and Matt Shoemaker are all scheduled to be free agents this winter, so moving Berrios would create another hole for the Twins to address in their starting staff.
Would love for Toronto to pick up a guy with 1.5 years left. People act like their window starts next year but contention windows sometimes come and go; put a decent SP in that rotation and two relievers and they’re contenders today. A playoff rotation of Ryu, Berrios, Ray, Matz with Manoah in the pen is good enough to win with the elite lineup they can run out there.
With better pitching the Jays are absolutely ready to compete in the present.
The Twins “contention’ window closed this year.. right on schedule… They never kicked down the door or smashed in the window.. they waited for the sure thing.. if baseball teaches any lesson.. there is no sure thing.. you gamble and give yourself the best odds you can.. that means being willing to trade prospects for improvements you need… just look at the Rays.. there is no gamble they won’t take if they think it improves the team and they are damn good at it.. The Minnesota Mediocres.. Terry Ryan refused to Gamble.. and the Dynamic Duo now refuses to gamble.. Ryan waited for the sure thing that never came.. just like now.. they wait… and one could only hope it is for their ticket out of town..
aged well
There’s no way Twins trade Berrios”
They would be idiots not to listen to offers. No reason to move him for a mediocre return but if I were them I would absolutely be open to retooling with a goal of really competing again in 2023. They look awful this year.
Isn’t it more likely they re tool for next year?
going to be an Angel this winter. at least I hope 🙂
Then he will just end up having a 4 ERA. Going to the Angels is usually a curse for SP.
I don’t see the Twins trading Berrios but i don’t see them giving him a mega extension either
There’s only one other option and that’s to make a qualifying offer and watch him walk at the end of next year, though I suppose that’s also a possibility.
Another factor to consider is that the CBA expires after this season, and who knows if the QO will even exist after ‘22. If one assumes that 2022 will be a strike/lockout season, MIN should make every effort to trade him by 7/30/21.
Step 1: Fire the Dynamic Duo… this is their mess.. they assembled this crew knowing it was short on Championship caliber pitching… as a Twins fan I have long been tired of the idea that competitive is the way to be.. competitive is just another way of saying ticket sellers.. I could care less.. Target field has made the billionaire worth almost a billion more dollars.. its about time the Fans that bought that place get rewarded with an all out effort to win..
Berrios is a solid #2 option for most teams and a great #3 for just about anybody. With Berrios typically being an inning eating machine while putting up very solid numbers, there are going to be a lot of teams calling about his availability, especially with how crazy cheap he is.
I don’t think the Twins have a shot at signing him. Berrios has been outspokenly disappointed with the Twins’ efforts to be competitive in the past and he’s been unwilling to take below market value for security on longer contracts.
I think the two legitimate options are.
1) Trade him now and get the biggest return possible expecting the window has closed.
2) Keep him and make a run at the division in the hopes it works out deeper into the playoffs (I don’t see them being the favorites for a while)
The Baseball Tonight crew identified the Twins as a team that lost its way- referring specifically to our minor league system. This idea has also translated to the senior squad. The Rookers, Larnachs. Kiriloffs, Lewis’s, Buxtons, Sanos, Keplers, Polancos, etc. have all been less than what we expected and we have zero #1 starter to speak of in the entire organization. The remaining roster is filled with guys who barely register a pulse. We don’t even have fun guys on the roster, really. It seemed like every iteration of this team had something they were known for, at least to us fans. This current roster just seems to show up for work and collect a check. Now is the only time to Trade Berrios and let him give someone else a more hungry version of himself. He’ll probably be a worthy #2 on the right team.
Reminds me of Coyle, Nino, Granlund, Zucker, etc
100%. I loved that entire team. I was sure Granny and Nino would emerge as secret weapons and Zucker a-70 point scorer, along with a bunch of more-than-solid castmates. What thee heck happened?.
The expectations must be really high for folks since every single one of those guys except Lewis (who remains a consensus top 30 MLB prospect) have seen action at the MLB level already, and many of them have looked pretty good to boot. That’s a whole lot of success in getting guys to the big show.
The Twins’ farm system has taken a big hit in recent years as the team has called up so many players and put them into action at the MLB level, and that’s going to happen. The issue isn’t the Twins’ farm system performance… it’s the free agency performance, at least in my opinion. Expecting to field a team of ultra low budget, long term control All Stars straight from the farm system isn’t realistic.
The Twins have simply refused to take risks on longer term contracts to sign top tier players who make the biggest difference for World Series caliber teams.
Bravo! Well said! Another aspect of the Twins’ situation over the past 10 or so seasons is that no matter how their roster is constructed, they literally have been destined to be eliminated by the Yankees in the post season. It should have been obvious long ago that you’ve got to build a team to counter NYY, and that has never been done.
What I’d love to know is why TB and Toronto (teams we should be better than “on-paper” offensively over the past 8 seasons) have played dead even against the Yanks since 2014 but the Twins wet themselves almost every single time we meet? We need more east coast prospects…
Like to see what this kid could do staying in the Central but on a contender. The price would be too high I’d wager.
Can y’all just trade him to the Braves for our trash? Lol he’s a solid pitcher! I feel like he just came up, hard to believe he’s been in the league this long. Twins have a stud, need to lock that kid up
What kind of Junk is he using? Will he be able to keep it up? Have to think about that before extending him,
Toronto, Oakland, San Fran, Cubs and Philly all nice spots for Berrios. Just a matter of whether Twins looking for a legit prospect as headliner or more of a reset with couple players that can help right away in ’22.
Mets : D.Smith,Lee,Peterson and either Mauricio or Vientos for Berrios and Buxton.
Mauricio is worth 4x what Vientos is so it’s pretty clear who the Twins would favor in that proposal, however…
Smith – Twins have no use for him.
Lee – Twins have no use for him.
Peterson – Is probably intriguing.
Mauricio – Is good.
Teams do not trade away high value MLB players for a collection of low/mid ceiling prospects who sort of add up to the same (technical) value.
The Twins should be sellers. Upcoming Free Agents Nelson Cruz, Andrelton Simmons, Michael Pineda, J.A. Happ, Matt Shoemaker, and Hansel Robles should already be on the auction block, Jose Berrios, Taylor Rogers, Tyler Dyffy, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler should all be open to the right offer.. If you can find the right deal, Josh Donaldson, Kenta Maeda and Alex Coleme should also be available. It should be time for ownership to start looking for a new front office and manager for 2022 as well. Time to RELOAD with a NEW VISION.
Blue Jays have a problem at 3B defensively. Biggio is struggling there, but Cavan can play multiple positions with competence. Putting ego aside, Jays should look at Donaldson and Maeda. Even Colome who makes around the same as Yates. That would save the Twins over $30-mil and look to retool in the offseason if they choose.