The Orioles have torn their roster down as part of a massive rebuild over the past few seasons. The organization has acquired a collection of highly-regarded prospect talent the fanbase is certainly hoping will comprise the core of a contender down the line. In the interim, though, the MLB product has been quite poor. The Orioles went 126-258 (32.8% winning percentage) between 2018-20, and their 23-48 record this season is the worst in the American League.
This kind of rebuild does offer an opportunity for less-heralded players to get some run at the major league level, though. Most won’t take advantage, resulting in a lack of teamwide success, but an underrated player will occasionally perform at a high enough level to cement himself as a building block of the organization’s long-term future. This season, Cedric Mullins has done exactly that.
A 13th-round pick out of Campbell University in 2015, Mullins performed well enough in the minors to generate a bit of attention. Baseball America twice ranked him among the O’s top 30 prospects, suggesting he was most likely to settle in as a fourth outfielder. In 2018, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs noted that he had an intriguing toolset and minor league track record but suggested the consensus opinion among talent evaluators was that he’d be more of a role player than a true regular.
Mullins made his MLB debut late that season and performed in line with those expectations over the next couple seasons. Between 2018-20, he hit .225/.290/.342 (73 wRC+). He was always a good baserunner and made some improvements at the plate last season, but he still looked like more of a placeholder than a core piece entering the year.
Over the past few months, Mullins has changed that outlook by outperforming even the most optimistic projections. He’s hitting .319/.389/.552 (158 wRC+) with thirteen home runs across 304 plate appearances. Not only has he emerged as a force at the plate, he’s been one of the game’s rangiest defenders. Statcast credits Mullins with seven outs above average this season, tied with Brett Phillips for second among outfielders (Manuel Margot is plus-9). Advanced metrics that take arm strength into account (like Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating) have been a little less enthused, but all agree that Mullins has at least been above-average in center field this year.
Factoring in his contributions on both sides of the ball, Mullins has been one of the most valuable players in the sport. FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement metric places Mullins third among position players (fourth if you also include Shohei Ohtani’s pitching value), trailing only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Ronald Acuña Jr. Baseball Reference’s version of the statistic slots Mullins seventh.
There’s room to debate where Mullins truly fits among players like Guerrero, Ohtani, Fernando Tatís Jr., Marcus Semien, Carlos Correa and Matt Olson this year. That he’s even in that conversation, though, is a testament to the campaign he’s had. Mullins will almost certainly be elected to the All-Star Game, and he’s tracking towards appearing on MVP ballots if he can continue to produce like this in the second half of the season.
Mullins probably won’t remain this good. His .363 batting average on balls in play is 73 points higher than the .290 league average. A quality runner, he should be expected to run a slightly better than average BABIP, but he’ll have a hard time keeping it quite so high. Statcast’s batted ball metrics suggest his results have outpaced the quality of his contact a bit, and his prior track record of subpar hitting can’t be completely discounted.
There’s plenty of room for Mullins to take a bit of a step back while remaining a decidedly above-average player, though. His defense gives him a strong floor to begin with, and the 26-year-old has made some substantive changes that suggest he’s turned a corner at the plate. Most notably, Mullins abandoned switch-hitting this year, hitting left-handed permanently. He’s been much better at hitting opposing southpaws left-on-left than he was stepping into the right-handed batter’s box. But that’s only come in 97 plate appearances, and he’s posting career-best production against righties this year too.
Mullins is striking out less than he did last year against pitchers of both handedness (albeit with a more significant drop against lefties), making more contact when he swings, and drawing walks at a career-best rate. He’s also almost completely stopped popping the ball up on the infield, even as his overall fly ball rate is higher than ever. Perhaps abandoning his right-handed swing to focus solely on hitting lefty has made Mullins more comfortable with his mechanics overall. Maybe his strong production against righties is completely unrelated to that decision. Whatever the reason, he’s made significant strides as a hitter.
There’s been plenty of attention on which players the still-rebuilding O’s might move before the July 30 trade deadline. Mullins, though, looks like a safe bet to stick around. He’s controllable through 2025 and won’t reach arbitration-eligibility until after next season. Even if there’s some regression forthcoming, he’s made enough process improvements to believe he’s truly taken his game to another level as he enters his prime years. Mullins looks to have legitimately broken out in 2021, and he’s the type of player the Orioles can build around as their top prospects matriculate to the big league level. Baltimore fans haven’t had much to celebrate in recent seasons, but Mullins’ emergence is a reason to continue to watch as the team scuffles in the near-term, and a sign of hope for the future.
DarkSide830
its actually quite amazing how little this guy is getting talked about. he should be starting the ASG. and would have a case for MVP if the season
DarkSide830
*if the season ended today.
oldmansteve
Agree. He got my AS vote
bravesfan
Agreed. Prob wouldn’t win the mvp if it ended today, as in the AL, Ohtani and Valdy have stronger arguments, but he’s definitely earned being in the discussion to this point
dimitriinla
When you’re on the Orioles these days you typically only get talked about if you’re the butt of a joke. But seriously CM has been outstanding and a truly exciting player to simply watch.
Costanza1321
I agree. But he needs to keep the production up for a chance at MVP.
miltpappas
MVP for the worst team? Really? Ripken won an MVP when the Orioles were garbage which was a joke.
Thornton Mellon
Yes, 1991 when the Orioles won 67 games. Not sure they’re going to win 50 at this rate this year. But I think Steve Carlton in the early 70s won Cy Young for a Phillies team nearly this bad.
Ripken also had just about as good a season in 1984 as he did in 1983 when he won MVP, but finished 25th in the historically terrible MVP vote that year. And the Orioles that year won 84 games.
JoeBrady
As a RS fan, I assume I will grow to hate this player. About a month or so backed, he raced from left-center field to right-center, to catch a ball Mountcastle should’ve had a play on (Mountcastle might’ve been injured). But the dude was flat-out flying. And an .826 career v the RS is really good.
A'sfaninUK
Actually no injury, Mountcastle is just really bad at outfield defense and is most likely a 1B/DH type player. He has an elite ceiling at those positions anyway, so no big loss for the O’s there.
A'sfaninUK
Yes, he’s not a .320 hitter, more like a .280 one, but that’s still really good. He’s a solid long-term bet to be elite for the next couple of seasons at least. Wonder if trading him while his value is skyhigh is actually the best option for the rebuilding birds though. I guess it depends on Rutschman and Means being on the team and being great in August.
jopeness
certainly need to listen to offers, it depends on the rebuild map, is it 1-2 more years or 3-5. that also would scope in the type of return expected.
dimitriinla
Not sure how you came to any of these conclusions: either that he’s a .280 hitter, or what Rutschman and Means have to do with Mullins.
birdsfan415
go out and vote Mullins everyone! man deserves to start!
2012orioles
He replaced Adam Jones in center in 2018, with Jonesy moving to left. Those are big shoes to fill. He really struggled in 2019 when it was really time to see what he had and ended up going to AA Bowie. Glad he’s been able to find his swing. It’s not a good team, but watching guys like Mullins, Means, Mancini, and even mountcastle the past few weeks, it’s been a fun team to watch. Mullins should be starting in the all star game
Ronk325
Mullins seems like a clear sell high candidate for the Orioles. He might be one of the few bright spots they have it’s doubtful he maintains this level of play and they’re still a couple years away from contention
dimitriinla
Also perhaps a long term piece fir the O’s. A lot will be determined by how the other outfield prospects develop. Mullins also has huge defensive upside which only helps his standing within the org’s outfield plans.
Ronk325
Mullins is unlikely to continue hitting at this rate and the Orioles are still at least two years away from contending. If they don’t trade him now they’ll regret it down the line
StudWinfield
I get the sell high thing but he does not even get to arbitration till after next season. With the O’s recent record on trading talent I’d be hesitant. Machado, Britton and Gausman, 3 of the better players that they actually moved before walking away or disappearing into retirement. For those 3 they got 1.5 seasons out of Villar, Tate and Zimmerman. Literally no one else has provided any positive contribution at the MLB level. Wow.
doublee919
All of those trades came under a different FO. Not really fair to compare.
doublee919
It’s also worth noting that of the 4 trades the orioles made that summer (including schoop to the brewers) the orioles netted 15 players and only Cody Carroll (in the Britton trade), villar and Luis Ortiz (in the schoop trade) and Zach pop and breyvic Valera (from the manny trade) are no longer in the organization. Pop was claimed In The rule 5 draft this year and is currently on the Marlins roster making his way back from TJ, to explain why he wasn’t protected. Villar himself netted the orioles 2 additional prospects. So the book is still out on several of these guys.
JoeBrady
Without knowing whether Duquette was pressured into holding, his 2017/2018 seasons were some of the worst in GM history. They won 75 in 2017, and their Py W/L was only 72 wins.
They had no team, but they had good trade values in Machado, Gausman, Bundy, Brach, Givens, Bleier, O’Day, and Britton.
Machado might’ve gotten them a top-50 & top-100 prospect, and the rest would’ve landed than them between top-100 to top-150 prospects. They got almost nothing for all of them combined. I don’t care for BA, and don’t like the owners, but Duquette’s lack of activity was appalling from a BB purist perspective.
mstrchef13
Surprised that there is no mention of his abandoning switch hitting this year. He was truly putrid as a RH vs LHP (career OPS of ,439), and he did not fare well in the minors either.
mikep2k
It’s mentioned quite a bit starting in the 9th paragraph.
pinstripes17
They literally mentioned that in the article, there’s a whole paragraph talking about it.
Ron Tingley
Just to be a jerk.. “Perhaps abandoning his right-handed swing to focus solely on hitting lefty has made Mullins more comfortable with his mechanics overall. Maybe his strong production against righties is completely unrelated to that decision”
But my man you dug into some numbers so you get a pass
bobtillman
You win games by accumulating good players. Why would you trade one with the kind of control Mullins has; that’s just nuts. I’d be MUCH more inclined to move Hayes and Santander (both of whom appear to have ceilings of “meh” ) or even Mountcastle (a little better than “meh”, with negative value everywhere but his bat; and that’s a maybe). Mullins aids victory in a variety of ways; the other guys are one dimensional, in a sport that’s rapidly becoming multi-dimensional. And no, you can’t trade Boom Boom; come on, have a heart. And again, the O’s are NOT poor relations. They’re not NY or Boston, but they’re Cleveland and Milwaukee (actually better off than both).
Hayes is actually the one I’d shop. Potentially strong defensively, even in CF AND he hits RH; the bat and overall approach are both iffy, but teams in NY (both) and other places are a good fit.
Indiansjoe
I wouldn’t trade Mullins if I was Baltimore. But man would I love to see him in Cleveland. I have enjoyed watching that kid play all year. I live in Maryland and have many Orioles fan friends. I’ve wanted Mullins on my team all year….but it definitely increased after he slaughtered Indians pitching
badco44
The only down side I’ve seen is the arm… but a pest for sure….. guy can hit and run!
bravesfan
Orioles should take advantage of his hot start to the season and trade him, as I doubt he can maintain this pace. Prospect pedigree typically don’t miss by a lot (when it comes to over performance), and his ceiling was a 4th OF. He’s likely gonna come back to reality and certainly won’t maintain a MVP performances. Orioles should capitalize on him ASAP and trade Mancini also. Both to the Braves …. Cause the Braves could desperately use both and we have a decent amt of prospect capital we can throw back. I’d even increase the prospect value if they’d take Ender in the equation and get him and his salary far away from us. lol Heck, take Waters and Pache and get Ozuna’s contract off our books in addition to whatever u want from our system to get Mancini lol …
IronBallsMcGinty
I’ve certainly noticed this guy as well. He’s a player I hoped the White Sox would aquire.
Champs64
He has a great nickname as “Cedric The Entertainer”. And he can definitely entertain fans. I don’t know why anyone would want to trade away this talent. He is a building block for success.
southern lion
I’m in an AL only 5×5 roto league and drafted Mullins in the 14th round. Best draft pick I ever made.
passed_balls
Found him on waivers a few weeks into the season. Has been amazing for me.
Cult of Dickie Thon
O’s should trade him because he’ll be a free agent before their anticipated next window of contention in 2032.
Cult of Dickie Thon
Jesse Orosco is available although at 64 I’m not sure he has anything left.
He was a perfectly serviceable LOOGY until he was 45.
Thornton Mellon
He’d be able to make this pitching squad, if they weren’t forever trying to “grow the arms”
Johnnymarty95
Orioles should just ignore all the trade rumors regarding Mullins and just keep him. He’ll start arbitration after 2022 which happens to be the same off-season that Chris Davis’s contract is off the payroll. Orioles should extend this man and make him part of their future core. Maybe a team friendly deal would be nice. He’s definitely got my vote for the All-Star game.