MLBTR Chat Transcript

I wanted to ask this question, but got to the chat a bit late. Can someone explain exactly how the expected win/loss (X-W/L) is computed on the standings page at MLB.com?

It’s supposedly based on runs scored and runs allowed. But SF has scored more runs (384}, than SD (365) and they have allowed fewer (285 to 288), and have a better differential (99 to 77). And yet the Giant’s expected record is 1 run worse than actual, and the Padre’s is 2 runs better than actual.

Unless there are other factors used in the computation, it makes no sense at all, if it is based on only what they say it is.