The luxury tax “is a factor,” in what the Astros will do at the trade deadline, GM James Click told broadcaster Robert Ford on the team’s pregame radio show (hat tip to Chandler Rome of The Houston Chronicle). However, Click also noted that the Competitive Balance Tax “is not a hard cap,” which is something of a broad remark that could imply the Astros are willing to exceed the $210MM threshold if necessary, or it could just be a simple statement of fact. Houston is currently quite close to the $210MM threshold — Cot’s Baseball Contracts has the team’s estimated tax number just shy of $207MM, while Roster Resource has the Astros with even less breathing room at roughly $208.8MM.
The Astros exceeded the CBT threshold last year, though since they didn’t top the threshold by more than $20MM and it was their first time in excess, the club paid the minimal first-timer rate of a 20 percent tax on the overage (for a total bill of $3,263,800). For passing the threshold again, the Astros would be taxed at 30 percent of the overage, though that again wouldn’t represent a big payout assuming they stayed under the $230MM mark.
As The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal has pointed out, however, if the Astros were tax-payors, their additional penalty would include lesser draft pick compensation if a qualifying-offer rejecting free agent (i.e. Carlos Correa or Justin Verlander) left for another team. It would also cost Houston higher draft picks off their own board as compensatory picks if they were to sign a QO-rejecting free agent of their own. The Astros may have to get creative in adding any sort of salary at the trade deadline if they are to stay under the tax threshold, since doing nothing would seem like a wasted opportunity for a club that has the look of playoff contender.
More from Houston…
- Lance McCullers Jr. is scheduled to return from the injured list and start Tuesday’s game against the Rangers, manager Dusty Baker told MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters. McCullers went on the 10-day IL on May 26 due to a sore right shoulder, and he’ll be on a pitch limit as the Astros will look to ease him back into action. Jake Odorizzi will work as the piggyback pitcher behind McCullers, as he too is working his way back to full strength following an IL stint due to a forearm strain.
- Both McCullers and Odorizzi will be part of a six-man rotation Houston will deploy over a stretch of 20 games in 20 days, beginning on Tuesday. It is quite possible that further injuries or lack of performance could alter the Astros’ plans over the next three weeks, but assuming everyone is healthy and effective, Chandler Rome thinks Luis Garcia could be the odd man out once the rotation reverts to a five-man staff that would consist of Zack Greinke, Jose Urquidy, Framber Valdez, McCullers, and Odorizzi. Garcia has pitched quite well this season, with a 2.98 ERA/3.64 SIERA over 63 1/3 innings and above-average strikeout and walk rates. Despite several injuries to the rotation earlier in the year, Houston is now in “good problem to have” territory with a surplus of arms — Cristian Javier has already been demoted to the bullpen after delivering good results as a starter. With Garcia also possibly joining the mix in July, he could provide a nice boost to the Astros’ middle-of-the-pack relief corps.
❤️ MuteButton
The Astros not only have baseball’s best offense, they have pretty darn good pitching as well. Which begs the question, why aren’t they in first place? Why aren’t they dominating as their run differential would indicate? I say its the manager. Is Dusty Baker a good guy? Yeah, he’s a great guy. As a manager though, kinda mediocre. Missing Hinch yet? Yeah, I’d say so.
brandons-3
Thought Dusty was the perfect manager to navigate the waters last season post-scandal. He was able to assemble a good staff considering the late hour he was hired and would’ve been able to keep the clubhouse steady as they were sure to be bombarded with jeers from fans and questions about it all year long. Even when it happened, a lot of people forgot how good the Astros actually are.
❤️ MuteButton
True. He was just what the doctor ordered last year. I’m not saying he’s a bad guy, I think he’s an excellent mentor and everything like that. I just don’t think he is in AJ Hinch’s class as a winning manager. This teams run differential is not reflected in the win loss record. The manager has to take the blame for that
Joel Peterson
The Astros of 2021 are not nearly as talented as the teams Hinch managed. And isn’t Hinch managing the Tigers to last place at the moment? Nothing suggests Hinch is better than Baker. Nothing……
Ww0907
A lot of managers could have won with the young talented core Hinch had. Springer, Altuve, Correa, Bregman, Keuchel. Trading for JV, Cole, and Osuna. His days in Arizona and now Detroit haven’t been anything special. Not saying he sucks but don’t just assume AJ is better than Dusty. The players you have definitely matter.
JoeW 2
nothing suggests baker is better than Hinch.
OnlyRaysFan
“He was able to assemble a good staff considering the late hour he was hired”
It helps when he doesn’t have to do anything and the only thing that changed was Dusty replacing Hinch lol
Joel Peterson
That’s a lame take.
GreenWood Porter
Totally. Now that the Astros are getting all of their injured players back they’re playing as well as anyone in MLB right now.
Their lineup is arguably one of the best since Murderer’s Row and their starting pitching is also one of the best in baseball right now, especially Framber Valdez who is putting up Cy Young numbers since his return. Their only weakness is the bullpen, even though they have a great closer in Ryan Pressly. Once Pedro Baez joins the team in June/July, watch out! This team is absolutely loaded.
goastros123
That bullpen is weak even with Pedro.
GreenWood Porter
They won’t be adding just Pedro. Eventually they could be adding Luis Garcia and also Josh James at some point, when he’s healthy.
Then you have those three plus Pressly and Javier. Is that still weak?
goastros123
Never liked Josh James. Keep Garcia in the rotation. We’ll see how Pedro does. Pressly as has done well. Get one more solid bullpen pitcher.
Tiger_diesel92
They are nothing like the murders row that the Yankees put that time, plus it was a whole different era, if you put the power hitters from those days into today’s ballparks sizes, Ruth or mantle or jimmy foxx couldn’t probably hit close 60-80 homeruns averaging
Ww0907
It helps that Hinch had JV and Cole leading his rotation with Osuna and Will Harris in his bullpen. Dusty hasn’t had any of those guys except JV for six innings on Opening Day 2020.
Moneyballer
Missing Hinch. I had a good laugh at that one. Yeah sure, he’s the issue because Detroit is loving the impact he’s making this year! Houston has had to navigate through quite a few injuries so the the lineup/pitching they have now was not what they always had. This team is going to be FINE and should make playoffs and probably do very well when its all said and done.
mro940
Their bullpen sucks. Plain and simple. Too many late leads blown.
JoeBrady
“As a manager though, kinda mediocre. ”
================================================
He’s a good manager, but maybe not great.
Right now, he has two issues. The first is that he started off with a few injuries. He has not had his full rotation together for a consistent period of time.
The second is that they been unlucky, according to the Py W/L. Their expected wins would rank them tied for 3rd in MLB.
And lastly, you cannot automatically assume that he has good hitting and pitching. It’s entirely possible that they are good because Baker is good. It’s like looking at someone’s art collection and thinking they are lucky because it goes up in price every day. As opposed to the owner simply being good at collecting art.
goastros123
They need to upgrade the bullpen.
DarkSide830
Garcia was a great find. usually teams shy away from older international amateur players.
takeitback
True. He’s not the only one they have either. Their minor leagues are littered with guys that were signed as older international prospects.
takeitback
I know it’s highly unlikely, but since they need to get creative, maybe they could trade Odorizzi to clear some payroll, then bring in a RP with the extra cap space.
❤️ MuteButton
If they were able to do that, then I imagine you’re suggesting some relief pitching? Outfield help would still be welcome even with Straw stepping it up a bit and McCormick coming on
takeitback
Yes, relief pitching. I think an OF would be great, especially if it was someone like Marte…..but I don’t see them trading the pieces it would take to get him.
GreenWood Porter
Trading a starter, namely Odorizzi, for a solid reliever is a great idea.
Their outfield is fine. Chas can alternate with Brantley in LF until he’s ready to be an everyday player. At that point the OF will be set with McCormick, Straw, and Tucker although they will need another backup to replace the Chasmanian Devil. Then Brantley can move to DH and Yordan to 1B whenever Yuli retires.
lsujedi
Lol does Yuli’s dominant year so far indicate in any way he’s about to retire? And Chas/Straw barely combine to form one competent player. No way you can pencil them both in as starters and plan to compete.
GreenWood Porter
I said whenever Yuli retires, how does that imply that he is about to?
He just turned 37 and has one more year left on his contract.
If he continues to play well this season and in 2022, then he may keep playing after that. But if he doesn’t, then why not retirement?
gost1
Trade Odorizzi, that’s rich. Trade Rumors insider stuff right there Lol! There are many many other pieces. What they neeed to do is clear half a dozen off 40-man including Freudis Nova, possibly Toro, Robel Garcia, Jones, Raley. They have young pitching in spades with add-on pieces like Abreu Paredes Torres Conine Bielak. None move the dial by themselves, but we’re only talking one serviceale reliever here, like Twins Rogers or other hypotheticals; Sulser Detwiler Givens.
Nothing
Heading the Astros main trade target is a trash can…no deal is imminent
Ww0907
I assume you’ll make the same trash can jokes when your man Springer eventually plays for you, right? Or do you just hate cheaters if they don’t play for your team?
Vizionaire
houston cheaters!
goastros123
Captain Obvious!
Unclenolanrules
Given the recent focus on foreign substances with pitchers, it kind of made me think that the hitter cheating scandals we have had the last few seasons might be in some part, a response to the escalation with substance use by pitchers.
Johnnymarty95
I knew the Astros shouldn’t have been underestimated once their sign stealing scandal came out. I remember people saying that they would not even make the playoffs. Overall this team is still good. I don’t think they’ll have a losing record within the next couple of years.
denny816
They need to move Odorizzi now for whatever they can get and move Javier back into the rotation.
Moneyballer
Nah. Luis Garcia should stay in the rotation over Javier. Odorizzi is too overpriced to be dealt at this point. His deal was a massive overpay! If the astros eat most of his remaining money they might be able to unload him but finding a buyer right now on a guy who hasn’t proved to be an asset is gonna be tough.
takeitback
I agree it would be tough to move him right now. But they might be able to give him 2-3 more outings and if he pitches well there may be a market for him.
Johnny NewYork
The Astros cost my Yanks a lot of championships (2-7), so I think about them often.
goastros123
Two isn’t a lot. I don’t know if they would beat the Dodgers in 2017 and the Nationals in 2019.
JoeBrady
Yup, and how many PED-related titles do the NYY have? And it’s not like they didn’t have their own sign-stealing issue. And it isn’t like Cole is not the poster child for doctoring the ball.
Every team does what it can to skirt the rules.
DarkSide830
i dont even know where you keep coming up with seven from
jdgoat
Oh yes, the definitely not at all cheating New York Yankees. I’ll play my small violin for them
pinstripes17
The Yankees never cheated
goastros123
That we know of, sure. Don’t forget: it was the Yankees who said that sealed envelope would damage the reputation of the Yankees organization, aka the classiest organization in MLB. The only thing that could damage their reputation is some one doing some thing they shouldn’t be doing
DarkSide830
A-Rod
jdgoat
Oh pinstripes, you better sit this one out buddy.
Sideline Redwine
Yep, classic Yankee fan. A delusional, revisionist historian–no guarantee you win the world series in either of those seasons. And where do you get seven??? LOL. I suppose I should say the Rays would have won in 2019???
Colt 45
You are without a doubt the king of snark on this site; your one the other day about picking up Correa and becoming v good friends was positively elegant. BIG props! 🙂
Hebbvb09
Dodgers scored 1 run in a game 7 at there own ballpark…do they ever take responsibility for not scoring more runs or easy to blame trash cans instead
pinstripes17
Big difference when you know what pitch is coming, major advantage.
goastros123
That is a major advantage, but it doesn’t excuse a supposedly superior team’s offense going cold.
Astros2333
Right, cause the Astros had a camera in CF of Dodgers stadium. The stadium they won two games in.