The 2021 amateur draft begins on July 11, and with the later date comes more time for analysis, predictions, smokescreens, rumors, and possible major changes up and down teams’ draft boards. With this in mind, there is naturally quite a bit of uncertainty over which prospects will land with which teams, as a real consensus has yet to develop in almost every single spot in the first round.
Baseball America’s Carlos Collazo, The Athletic’s Keith Law, MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis, and ESPN.com’s Kiley McDaniel have all published new mock drafts within the last week, and one constant emerged between the four pundits — the Pirates taking California high school shortstop Marcelo Mayer with the first overall (1-1) pick. It isn’t a sure thing by any means, however, as the Pirates are said to be focused “only on position players at this point,” according to Law, so such candidates as Louisville catcher Henry Davis (Callis cites Davis as Pittsburgh’s apparent “Plan B”) or high school shortstops Jordan Lawlar and Khalil Watson could still be in the mix. Collazo also believes the Pirates are considering Vanderbilt right-hander Jack Leiter.
The Pirates’ $14,394,000 draft bonus pool is the highest of any team, and they plan to maximize value by drafting a player at 1-1 who is thought to be less willing to insist on the full slot price $8,415,300 slot price for the first overall pick. “I think that’s what Pittsburgh’s pick will come down to: taking the one that is clearly cheaper to sign,” McDaniel writes, which certainly isn’t welcome news to Pirates fans long frustrated by the team’s unwillingness to spend.
That being said, many teams have deployed the strategy of spreading around their draft bonus money in the past. The most famous example was the Astros’ pick of Carlos Correa (seen as a slight reach at the time) first overall in 2012, and Houston signed Correa to a below-slot bonus and then using that saved money to sign 41st-overall pick Lance McCullers Jr. to an above-slot deal. It also isn’t like Mayer would be a controversial choice at 1-1, considering that MLB Pipeline ranks him first on their top 250 draft prospects list, and McDaniel’s most recent prospect ranking has Mayer second overall.
While Mayer looks like the favorite at the moment, it is quite possible the perceived price tags could still fluctuate in the next three weeks. For instance, the three pundits all note that the Tigers love Mayer, so he isn’t likely to fall beyond Detroit at the third overall pick if the Pirates and Rangers (who pick second) both pass. As McDaniel observes, this impacts Mayer’s leverage in potential negotiations with the Pirates, since the young shortstop can be reasonably certain of at least landing a bonus in range of the $7,221,200 slot price attached to the third overall pick.
There is no consensus whatsoever in the mock drafts after a hypothetical Pirates/Mayer 1-1 pick, so if Pittsburgh went in another direction, the draft boards would be entirely blown up. To give you an idea of the wide range of scenarios, here is the list of players cited by Callis, Collazo, Law and McDaniel as possibilities for each team drafting in the top eight, along with which pundit selected which prospect for each top-eight team in their mock draft.
- 1. Pirates: Mayer (Callis/Collazo/Law/McDaniel), Henry Davis, Jordan Lawlar, Khalil Watson, Jack Leiter
- 2. Rangers: Leiter (Callis), Lawlar (Collazo/Law), Davis (McDaniel), Kumar Rocker, Mayer, Watson….in a contrast to the other three pundits, Callis writes that Texas has Lawlar and Davis “on the back burner” behind Watson, Mayer, and Leiter. “Watson has real heat at this spot,” Collazo writes.
- 3. Tigers: Mayer, Jackson Jobe (Callis/Collazo), Leiter (Law), Brady House (McDaniel), Lawlar, Watson, possibly Rocker “as a big maybe” in Collazo’s words
- 4. Red Sox: Lawlar (Callis), Davis (Law), Leiter (Collazo/McDaniel)….Collazo doesn’t believe Leiter would fall beyond Boston at fourth overall,
- 5. Orioles: Davis (Callis), Colton Cowser (Law), Watson (Collazo/McDaniel), House, Harry Ford, either of Mayer/Lawler if they happened to fall….Baltimore is widely expected to take a college position player at an under-slot price, as a way of keeping money in reserve to go over-slot on other picks.
- 6. Diamondbacks: Rocker (Callis), Davis (Collazo), Watson (Law), Lawlor (McDaniel), Jobe
- 7. Royals: Watson (Callis), Rocker (Collazo/Law/McDaniel)….this is another minor consensus area, as Law and McDaniel believe that Rocker isn’t likely to fall beyond Kansas City. “The market for Rocker is weirdly specific,” Law writes, citing the Rangers, Red Sox, Royals, Nationals, and Mets as perhaps the only true interested parties. Of course, Callis projected the D’Backs to take Rocker at sixth overall, so Arizona could also be a candidate for the Vanderbilt righty.
- 8. Rockies: House (Callis/Collazo/Law), Benny Montgomery (McDaniel), Jobe
All four mock drafts are well worth reading in full, to get a sense of what the 29 teams with first-round picks are generally targeting this year or have historically looked for in past drafts. (The Astros aren’t included, as they lost their first-rounder as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.)
For more on the prospects themselves, you can check out the aforementioned lists from McDaniel and MLB Pipeline, Baseball America’s top 500 list, or some of the individual writeups from the Sports Info Solutions blog on such top college players as Florida outfielder Jud Fabian, Wake Forest right-hander Ryan Cusick, UCLA shortstop Matt McClain, and Mississippi right-hander Gunnar Hoglund.
I hope Phillies at 13 can land Madden(RHP Texas) or wicks(Kansas state)
Madden’s not falling. now if Hoglund’s there I want him.
I live in Manhattan. We really enjoyed watching Hicks pitch this year. Sucks we got screwed out of the tournament this year so he lost out on an opportunity to showcase himself.
If Elias doesn’t take a pitcher, he should be fired out of a cannon right into a large koi pond and nibbled into submission
You don’t really draft position specific in MLB’s first round. Most of these guys are 3-5 years out of getting a taste of the big league club and a lot can change in that time. If they see a future star bat than focus on pitching in the following rounds. But I think young hitting cores are the ways to rebuild winners. Pitching wins championships but pitching can be bought, it is harder to develop star pitching (unless you are Cleveland or NYM)
Actually, a TOR starter is more expensive than any hitter. Look at the upcoming FA market. Its possible to add offense, but pitching? Few and far between!
I don’t really want a pitcher to be honest. Hitting prospects are much safer, and can be traded for a pitcher down the road. If Leiter falls, take him, else go for Davis or the BC outfielder.
I will be genuinely upset if Rocker is available to the Orioles and they pass on him. Given the state of our pitching staff and how poorly the first group of pitching “prospects” has performed. I feel as if the team only has two legitimate guys in the minors I would safely regard as future major leaguers (Hall and Rodriguez) and everyone else is a “maybe” at best.
I hope the Rangers take Leiter.
Leiter’s going to the Pirates
And I always thought the draft’s sole purpose was to take someone that was going to help your team
Apparently this concept is lost on Mike Elias
What?
Well how would taking a catcher or shortstop help tbe Orioles?
You don’t know how baseball, the draft, or how minor league systems operate so I’ll just chalk this up to that.
Well maybe I should talk to Pat Gillick and ask for his opinion on the matter.
He is still available and quite frankly, I would love to talk to him
How would it not?
Well how would it since you are doing the asking?
You clearly don’t understand how baseball works. You don’t draft for position. Let’s say they take Davis. If Rutschman and Davis both pan out, trade one for a pitcher. You take the player you think is best relative to their draft cap cost, and work out logjams when they occur via trade.
And Davis could end up being moved off catcher to get his bat there quicker.
A lot of scouts aren’t convinced he can stick at catcher anyways. He could be their RF future.
Teams take the best player available regardless of position because there are no guarantees. Matt Wieters did not become switch-hitting Jesus or Mauer with Power. Mychal Givens was drafted as a shortstop. Players have, on average, four years of minor leagues to get through and a lot changes.
You take shortstops because they are among the most gifted athletes in the crop. You take catchers because great ones are hard to come by. Adley Rutschman should not prevent the Orioles from taking the best available player if that player happens to be a catcher. They will find jobs for everyone.
Never once in the history of MLB has a team drafted too many of one position. Ever.
The goal of going underslot is to get more players that help your team. Rather than going all in on one player, you get multiple good players. It’s a higher floor, lower ceiling strategy.
Taking a catcher 1 would be one of the greatest mistakes in draft history! To pass on premier talent at ss or starting pitcher to draft a catcher in order to spend more later is how u end up w 3 fringe roster players instead of your next star. If pirates take Henry – they will remain at bottom of NL and one of worst franchises in baseball
Davis is still expected to be a great catcher and the pirates don’t have anyone in line for a catcher of the future. But I think Mayer or Lawler end up at 1-1. But I doubt whoever takes Davis will be disappointed that he fell to them.
1) Catchers don’t hit as well as other positional players.
2) Catchers play less games than . . .
3) Catchers take longer to get to majors than . . .
4) Catching get injuried more often than . . .
5) Catchers cost less than . . . (so they are easier to replace)
Jets need a placekicker, but shouldn’t use a 1st round on one. Neither should a catcher be taken number 1.
Spot on Denny. And when most picks don’t pan out – that’s how u guarantee the worst return on your investment
Many 1st round picks don’t turn out regardless of where they are picked in the round. You take the best player available when it is your time to pick. If you have two players that are graded the best and they are tied in tha grade, you then have the opportunity to get creative like the Astros did with Correa. Doubt San Francisco regrets taking Posey #5 over all
While wouldn’t want my team(s) to draft a catcher with a 1st round pick, the philosophy is kind of flawed. Take it to another sport, like FB when I remember the Raiders getting slammed for “wasting” a 1st rounder on this punter by the name of Ray Guy decades back, he was just the best in the league for years.
1.) Buster Posey says Hello
2) a healthy catcher (ie not Cervelli) can play 120+ games easy
3) ‘prep’ catchers don’t take too long
4) true, they touch the ball more than any other position in the game.
5) hitting catchers are hard to get.
Davis is a premium prospect. He is a top 5-10 draft prospect right now. The field of draft candidates in the top 10 are all close in value. He will be in the top 50 prospects the second he gets drafted with out playing a pro game. He ‘should’ be in the mlb level in by 2025.
in the top draft prospects it seems like a no brainier UNLESS the pirates are trading some of their middle infield prospects soon. The pirates also pretty much every other position with quality prospects.
If the pirates do not pick Davis I’d be really surprised.. of course, unless more trades are made to pick up a quality Catching prospect or two.
johnsilver: it says volumes that you had to go “decades back” to find a expection to the rule.
Henry Davis is likely not a catcher, more of a Schwarber type.
Davis is about premier talent more so when you consider the lack of available catchers around the league.
Pirates taking someone that will be cheapest to sign? How has that worked out in the past?
One name that comes to mind is Tony Sanchez.
They spent the saved money on high school pitchers and none of them amounted to a hill of beans.
Negotiating with draft picks happens every year. since there is no consensus Uber talent for 1-1 this draft then it’s just good business.
That’s all you got…. One name? Pretty lame
There was a different system in place when the Pirates took Sanchez in 2009. The Pirates have spent every dime of their draft pool money every year the system has been in place. In fact, the current system was put in place after 2011 because the Pirates paid a second round pick (Josh Bell) a record $5mil bonus. If the Pirates think the top 4 or 5 players are close to one another in talent taking the one that allows them to spend more on later picks is smart. The Pirates unwillingness to spend on high payrolls is frustrating and something they should be criticized for. But this draft strategy is not an example of the Pirates being cheap. Oh and the Pirates strategy in 2009 was sound. It was just poorly executed. They drafted the wrong pitchers. There is a different front office in place. Pirates fans can only hope Cherington does a better job.
Exactly. Just about every team spends its entire pool every year; that’s the bottom line. I’m pretty sure last year 5 teams actually went over their pools, just not by enough to incur a penalty. And a couple missed, but again, by relatively little amounts.
Realistically, it’s (underpaying then overpaying) not a strategy that has worked very well. Everybody points to Correa/McCullers, but that type of success is actually rare. There’s enough difficulty is ascertaining talent, by itself, than to worry about about financial shuffling.
It’s a tough year; no Junior Griffey-s on the prep side, no Steven Strasburg-s on the college level. You can throw #1-#6 into a hat and pick out a name and probably have the same success rate as someone doing intense research. And many of those guys have at least one discernable flaw. And that’s not counting their personality structure, which at the end of the day has shown to be as important as anything else.
Success in drafting is complex; is it the draft, or is it the development? As even Callis admits, that’s the age old question.
It’s kinda the Pirates’ luck that they have the first pick in a year when any of six or so kids seem like reasonable top choices and they’re currently setting themselves up for the 4th-6th pick next year when the early consensus is that there’s a clear cut, available once every handful of years type talent.
Cole Tucker and Kevin Newman all over again. Both 1st round picks that didn’t work out. The Pirates don’t need another middle infielder, we have enough of those in the minors. Take Leiter… he’ll be ready in less time
So if Newman and Tucker didn’t work out before we should never take another middle infielder in the first round? And if they didn’t work out how do we now have too many middle infielders? Which is it? Also both Tucker and Newman were picked late in the first round and were not near the caliber of Mayer or Lawler or the other SS in top of this draft.
I didn’t say that. Cruz Peguero and Gonzalez are all middle infielders and ranked in their top 5. Priester Thomas and Malone are all top 10 Pitchers in their minors and have struggled this year. Leiter can move quickly through the system and has that pedigree.
Priester has been good. Thomas has struggled and Malone has been hurt. Nothing that has happened in the last 2 months changes their outlooks. Plus it is not a good strategy to pick based on need. If you think Leiter is the best player that’s fine. There are those who agree with you and those who disagree.
Agree, pitching is sorely needed since they lack a no.1 starter.
Agreed. I’m really hoping Roenas Contreras can be that guy.
He has looked the part so far this year. Will see how he does in AAA soon.
I know teams try to take the best available talent, but I dont see Detroit and Avila taking a high school pitcher with the window so close to arriving. A college player fits better, a high school hitter who is advanced would be acceptable.
Since Pirates are at least 5 years away from being competitive unless they get a wealthier owner, no reason to pick Letter just because he might arrive sooner.
I have to disagree. I think they’re 2 years away. I’m also not a fan of Nutting but he’s not going anywhere. I personally think Leiter is the best pick … arriving sooner is a plus but not the reason.
2 yrs is optimistic..there will be some players who will be on the winning team that are here in 2 yrs…but I think 24-25 are the years that if drafted well will be part of the winning. The trades since gmbc took over seem promising, espec the arz and yankee trades.
I agree, they don’t need another middle infielder but not because of Tucker and Newman.
Tucker if he can get his bat anywhere near average would give the pirates possible the best defensive left side in the league.
Newman proved he can hit and this could be his ‘sophomore slump’ given the short 2020 season. he has also been slowly improving… of course he couldn’t have been much worse so only way to go is up.
If those two cannot pick it up, like you said the pirates have a handful of good middle infield prospects like Gonzalez, Cruz, Peguero and Bae who are not too far away.
Take the best talent is a common Ben thing, but Davis is close in that regard and at a position of need at catcher
I haven’t paid attention to this lately…who? Why? Is he the next Machado?
And did Kumar Rocker chainsaw his arm off, how did he go from consensus 1-1 to out of the mix?
He’s not been particularly dominant this season in college, so some of the concerns that were floating around have become more accepted. He’s still got arguably the highest ceiling if he can find his command, but perhaps not a 1-1 guy.
That said, any of the top 8 or so players are all worthy of being 1-1.
Hope the Tigers take Rocker, the Mets get Leiter, and the Yankees take Brien Taylor again.
Personally i think it is a no brainier. Henry Davis to the pirates. he is a top 10 draft prospect at a premium position the pirates sorely need and if he stays healthy could be here when Stallings is ready to depart (assuming he doesn’t get traded as well)
He has some power
drives in runs
is patient at the plate with more walks than strike outs
Speedy, more so if you take into account he is a catcher
There isn’t much info on his defense but if he can get it anywhere near close to average then yeah.. potential MVP type,
He is the type of guy I draft and offer him an extension with in the first year filled with bonuses to get him pay anywhere near (current) MVP type play.
Rocker’s velocity has dropped this year. He went from mid to upper 90s last year to topping out at 94 a couple of starts ago. He is now FIRMLY behind Mayer, Lawler, Davis and Leiter.
Why firmly? The high school schmucks have no history of competing against the highest level college players. HS players are busts more often than not. Why waste a high pick on a HS player unless their parents provide some great blood lines?
Kumar was a stud at every level he’s been at. Leiter has the blood lines. Other than money there is no other reason to not take these two guys first. Velocity issues because he is only hitting 94 or 95 on the gun?. Are you serious? The kid threw 100 at age 16. He’s a likely TJ candidate and a top of the rotation pitcher. The only thing you have to worry about with Kumar is will he throw strikes enough to be your ace. Worst case, he’s a closer for the next decade.
Leiter is the better of the two but who cares they are the deGrom and Scherzer of college pitching. Not to take them is a mistake unless there are money issues and if there are, the owners should sell to somebody who can afford a baseball team..
I think Jack Leiter is highly overrated and he should not go top 3, he is definitely the4th pick.( Salty red sox fan 😉
A little salty, there.
It’s not cheap to go under on the top pick if you’re going to overspend in the lter rounds…. It’s maximizing the pool given. Sadly used to this as a pirates fan.
correct me if i’m wrong.. but that isn’t ben’s history. There are multiple top 5 prospects that should be on the table and all are at 60 according to MLB’s draft prospect list.
All should at least get slot value +/- a few bucks all will likely sign regardless since the time is limited given they are coming out of college.. well unless it is crazy low.
Lieter, Rocker (you can never have enough pitching) and Davis are the obvious top options. All of them have the potential to be ‘elite’ players even if Davis has to move.. but his catching improved recently so…
Consider the drafting teams and then draw your own conclusions. What type of organization would pass on two elite college pitchers who would have gone early in the 2017 and 2018 drafts if they hadn’t been committed to Vanderbilt?
To get a feel for what specific types of teams do lets start in 2017 when Kumar was a HS pitcher and Perfect Game superstar. That year Minnesota shocked the world by taking a not well known SS named Royce Lewis to save money. Cincinatti followed by picking a HS flamethrower named Hunter Greene (the actual best player in the draft). Mackenzie Gore was the next best player and he went to SD. Then the two-way College star Brendan McKay went to the always savvy TB. Minnesota behaved like a small market team and saved money and lost out on better players. Does that sound like something Pittsburgh would do? Pittsburgh picked a flame throwing HS pitcher from Texas at 11 that year.
In 2018 Detroit took the best player in the draft in Casey Mize the top college SP. The Giants took the next best player in Joey Bart the best catcher in the draft and a college player. Alex Bohm, Nick Madrigal and Jonathan India went next – all College players who are now starting in the majors 3 years later. The top HS players were Kellenic who came up and failed this season but should have a great career, he just needs more time than his college equivalents, Grayson Rodriguez and the highly touted Mathew Liberatore. Logan Gilbert and Brady Singer were college pitchers taken later who are already contributing at the MLB level.
In 2019 Adley Rutschman was the premiere pick as a college catcher and Baltimore took the right guy. Bobby Witt Jr was expected to be a high pick being the son of a MLB player and KC got him and it was the first legitimate HS player taken in the top 4. Legitimate in that it wasn’t because of money. Riley Greene and CJ Abrams went after Vaughn and Bleday (college players) went to the White Sox and Marlins. So the tendency was to college players first early in the draft.
In 2020, the first seven players were college players beginning with Torkelson the #1 selection. It was a familiar group doing the picking – Detroit, Baltimore, Miami, KC all had high draft picks in recent years and all took college players. Toronto was new to the early drafting and took a Vandy grad rather than a HS pick.
So in the end over the last 4 years almost nobody has taken a HS player in the first four picks for reasons other than saving money except KC and they took Bobby Witt Jr a very high profile son of a MLB player.
So why have Mayer and Lawler jumped past the two obvious choices? Lets hope it’s not because they have unbelievable launch angles or exit velocities!!! Lets hope they played somewhere against competition similar to the level Kumar and Leiter have played against and dominated. I don’t think that’s possible so I’m assuming both SP from Vandy will go 1 and 2 like they should. Lawler and Meyer are clearly not the sons of MLB players who were well above league average so I’m not seeing them jumping the stud pitchers except for money saving..
Lets look at who is picking #1. Pittsburgh
2017 #11 Shane Baz HS SP
2018 #10 Travis Swaggerty College OF
2019 #18 Quinn Priester HS SP (from a small HS in Illinois – not baseball country!)
2020 #7 Nick Gonzalez College SS
2021 #1 ? Expensive choice – Leiter cheap choice HS SS
Trend – Only top 10 pick was a college player but money will dictate choice so HS player is very possible.
Lets look at who is picking #2 Texas
2017 #26 HS OF
2018 #15 HS SP
2019 #8 College 3B
2020 #14 College 2B
2021 #2 ? Expensive choice – Vandy SP cheap choice local HS SS
Trend – the lower the pick the more likely a college player but local kid is not a stretch but they need to fill their new stadium so a big name might help. They should take a Vandy SP.
Lets look at who is picking #3 Detroit
2017 #18 College SP
2018 #1 College SP
2019 #5 HS OF
2020 #1 College 3B
2021 #3 ? Can’t imagine them not taking a Vandy pitcher if available. Leiter more likely than Kumar. Detroit is loading up on quality SPs for their future.
Lets look at who is picking #4 Boston
2017 #24 College SP = Dombrowski era (Houck)
2018 #26 HS Infielder – Dombrowski era (Casas)
2019 NO PICK
2020 #17 HS Infielder – Bloom era (Yorke)
2021 ? Bloom has yet to make a decision that impacts the qualify of the team in the near future so it’s very likely he’ll take another HS infielder despite needing pitching and two outstanding SPs possibly being available. If he wants a legacy before he gets fired for not winning he should grab one of the two Vandy SPs because they will slot in behind Sale in a couple of years. I don’t expect him to still be there but at least he can brag that he selected the right player in 2021 despite screwing up in his first draft in 2020 and his first trade which sent the face of the franchise to LAD to win a ring there rather than Boston.
Should be fun to see if the HS players ACTUALLY get picked that early. I think it’s unlikely unless money is being saved by Pittsburgh and Texas.
Can the Red Sox put a stake in the heart of Garret Richards already. He is awful and needs to go. He gives away games in the early innings. Enough Already Chaim Bloom ! Bring up a Triple AAA pitcher and give him a shot. He could not do any worse than Richards.
AL34 – You mean the $11M mistake by Bloom that when coupled with his Price mistake costs Boston $27M for that slot in the pitching rotation? hahaha
You’ve got to remember AL34, Bloom doesn’t really deal in MLB ready players. He’s a man with a vision, a really long vision, of the future of the Red Sox and we have a dozen crap minor league players, a dozen utility players and several bad starters to prove it!! His vision needs to be viewed with a telescope not the naked eye!! It’s a good thing the team is playing over it’s head to keep the heat off the guy because otherwise more fans than you would be realizing just how bad his moves have been and that DD’s guys are the ones keeping the winning alive right now.
Somebody needs to tell Bloom that one good pitcher at $15M is better than 15 $1M pitchers that stink. Frugal is as frugal does? Sounds like something Forest Gump would say about Bloom and ownership!!
Sale will be back soon along with Houck so things will get better but these are great reminders that Bloom’s done nothing but take credit like Cora while the players from DD carry the team to late inning wins like 2018.
Tigers: Mayer Leiter Lawlar Rocker