It’s time for a fresh installment of our 2021-22 MLB Free Agents Power Rankings, where we rank players by their potential earning power should they reach the open market as scheduled. For this exercise, I’m setting aside the uncertainty of the collective bargaining agreement expiring on December 1st. For the full list of free agents, click here.
1. Corey Seager. Seager suffered a broken hand after getting hit by a pitch in mid-May, and seems likely to return around early July. It will be interesting to see how Seager hits once he returns. In 169 plate appearances to start the season, he sits at a 122 wRC+. That’s strong work, but perhaps a bit short of Seager’s own standards, as he entered the season with a career mark of 130.
2. Carlos Correa. Correa is raking this season, with a 147 wRC+ that ranks second only to Xander Bogaerts among shortstops. He’s also managed to play in all but three of the Astros’ games and hasn’t been on the IL since late in the 2019 season. I debated Correa vs. Trevor Story back in mid-April…but can Correa move past Seager? Correa’s Statcast hitting numbers are strong this year, and he even ranks fifth among shortstops in Outs Above Average on defense. Plus, Correa is not set to turn 27 until September.
3. Kris Bryant. Bryant is having a monster season, posting a 160 wRC+ that ranks second among all free agents (assuming the Astros pick up Yuli Gurriel’s option). Bryant is on pace for a six or seven WAR season. That’s on par with the production of the first three years of his career, which netted him the 2016 NL MVP award. Though Bryant once looked like an obvious trade candidate, the Cubs are currently clinging to first place in the NL Central. FanGraphs puts their playoff odds at about 40%. If that holds for the next month, trading Bryant won’t be a viable option for GM Jed Hoyer. In that case, Bryant’s final overture from the Cubs may come in the form of a qualifying offer after the season.
4. Trevor Bauer. After the season, Bauer must decide whether to opt out of the remaining two years and $62MM on his contract with the Dodgers (causing a large chunk of his ’21 salary to be deferred) or potentially opting out of only the 2023 season, leaving just $17MM on the table. Bauer’s calculus may be changing in light of MLB’s impending crackdown on the use of foreign substances. Through Bauer’s first 12 starts, his four-seam fastball had 2,840 RPM at a velocity of 93.8 mph. But on June 6th in Atlanta, Bauer’s spin rate dropped to 2,612 while staying at virtually the same velocity.
Will Bauer continue to post Cy Young level numbers for the remainder of the season if MLB’s sticky stuff rules are fully enforced? If he slips – even if it has nothing to do with foreign substances or spin rate – the perception might be enough to prevent him from opting out.
5. Trevor Story. Story owns just an 89 wRC+ through 50 games; he hasn’t had a stretch this bad since 2017. Plus, he hit the IL with right elbow inflammation in late May. He’s expected to be activated today, and has plenty of time to right the ship before the Rockies most likely trade him in July.
6. Freddie Freeman. In 2018, a season in which Freeman finished fourth in the NL MVP voting, he had a 58-game stretch during which he posted a .780 OPS, which is a bit worse than what he’s done this year. I don’t think there’s anything to worry about with the reigning NL MVP, even with a wRC+ all the way down to 111. But the timing isn’t great for Freeman, who turns 32 in September and may have to be content getting a bit past Paul Goldschmidt’s five-year, $130MM deal.
7. Kevin Gausman. Gausman has sustained his strikeout rate from last year, improved his control, and has benefitted from a 7.1% home run per flyball rate and .212 BABIP. Since joining the Giants in 2020, Gausman has a 2.29 ERA in 137 1/3 innings. Maybe his skills are more indicative of a 3.00 ERA, but that’s still top shelf work that may put him in the $100MM discussion. Gausman bet on himself this year by accepting the Giants’ qualifying offer, and that decision is looking prudent so far.
8. Javier Baez. It’s tough to predict how the market will treat Baez. The Cubs’ 28-year-old shortstop continues to do things you’ve never seen before on a baseball field, but he also owns a .240/.276/.480 swing-for-the-fences batting line with a 36.7 K%. With potentially nine starting shortstops on the free agent market this winter, teams will have options.
9. Clayton Kershaw. Kershaw has thrown four clunkers in his last seven starts, sending his ERA from 2.09 to 3.66. Overall, though, I don’t think his skills have changed. The 33-year-old should still be able to land a three-year deal at a premium salary, even if he limits his potential destinations.
10. Max Scherzer. Scherzer turns 37 in July, and will be highly sought-after if the Nationals are willing to trade him this summer. Normally a pitcher at Scherzer’s age has little chance at a three-year deal, but so far he has a 2.22 ERA, 36.1 K%, and 5.2 BB%. I think someone might spring for the third year.
Honorable mentions
Nick Castellanos, J.D. Martinez, Mark Canha, Brandon Crawford, Chris Taylor, Marcus Semien, Buster Posey, Starling Marte, Craig Kimbrel, Lance Lynn, Carlos Rodon, Robbie Ray, and Marcus Stroman are among those having big years, though if we set the bar for the top ten at $100MM they’ll have a hard time getting there.
A couple of Mets, Michael Conforto, and Noah Syndergaard, have been bumped from the top ten. Conforto has failed to hit for power thus far, while Syndergaard had a setback in his rehab from Tommy John surgery. Dylan Bundy also fell off the list, as he’s given up 23 runs in his last 21 innings. There are others who fall somewhere in-between, having a solid but not spectacular year, like Anthony Rizzo, Avisail Garcia, Zack Greinke, Anthony DeSclafani, and Wade Miley.
Correa’s an interesting case. He’s young for the big SS class, and he’s having a great start to the year, but the two concerns are 1) injury risk and 2) the bad PR from the… uh, scandal (especially with the way he and Altuve have handled it publicly). He may get more years than any of the Baez/Story/Seager trifecta but I doubt he’ll be tops in AAV.
I would take Correa over those three shortstops you mentioned and I’m a Dodger fan. I love his leadership and think the Astros would be nuts to let him go. The scandal is water under the bridge. It’s time for fans to let it go.
His “leadership” is one of the reasons why you shouldn’t want him anywhere near your team. It’s time for you to join reality: the scandal is not going away no matter how sick you personally are of it (egomanical much? YOU dont get to decide whats good for everyone, lol)
That scandal really hurt Springer, didn’t it?
The “scandal” is ancient history. I don’t understand why some people keep harping on it. In your case, is it because the Astros might relegate the A’s to playing in the wildcard game? Think of how much better the A’s would be if they had Correa instead of Elvis.
Big overreaction. Posters state their opinion of things and someone else says you’re oppressing other posters opinion. “You don’t get to decide what’s good for everyone”? Please. Stop being so damn sensitive and grow a skin that can take a little. You aren’t being oppressed. Wait, am I overreacting by saying that YOU said you are being oppressed? Ironic, right?
Front offices probably don’t care about it anymore. If you can hit without the trash can, you’ll get a job.
Regardless of scandal, Correa over Seager or Story lacks statistical support.
But those intangible skills? Like losing his composure when Kelly taunted him?
While I may be taking your comment a bit too literally to make a point, saying the scandal from way back in 2017 is ancient history is amusing.
That scandal was in the last decade!
So long ago indeed, almost 4 years ago.
I do believe this “foreign substance” scandal will make most forget about trash cans and video. This is altering the baseball. People all know the “spitball” was considered cheating…what about this?
In order of impact on the outcome of a play IMO…
Foreign Substances on a ball
Corked Bat
Steroids
Video recording / sign stealing / trash can banging
How about his intangible skill of actually staying on a baseball field? I think that certainly counts for something.
Well there’s a new scandal in town, and it’s a ‘sticky’ situation. This will distract from the Astros sins of the past…except for Cole of course. Houston seemed to be the place to go to increase spin rates too (along with LAD).
paddyo875:
“…Correa over Seager or Story lacks statistical support.”
Statistically, Correa is a much better hitter than Story. Story, 112 wRC+, 113 OPS+, Correa, 129 wRC+, 128 OPS+.
Statistically, Correa is a far, far better fielder than Seager. Seager, -7 DRS, -9 OAA, Correa, 52 DRS, 14 OAA.
Seager is the better hitter, but only very slightly. Seager, 130 wRC+, 128 OPS+, Correa, 129 wRC+, 128 OPS+.
Statistically, Correa is the better choice of the 3 by far.
Stroy has a 16.3 bWAR for 2018-2021, while Correa has a 11.3.
So, you pick a span of years where Correa was injured in one (2019) and offer only bWAR?
I can understand not looking at career stats for guys with 10+ years of service, but these guys are both young. For their somewhat short careers Fangraphs has Story with a WAR of 19 and Correa with a WAR of 21.8.
BB Ref WAR, oWAR, dWAR:
Story: 23.3, 17.7, 9.1.
Correa 29.7, 24.3, 9.4.
BB Ref 2020-to date WAR, oWAR and dWAR:
Story: 4.4, 3.8, 1.4.
Correa: 6.1, 4.5, 2.6
I like using the last three years, which this is, considering the length of 2020/21. That said, I would sign any of them. But Correa would definitely be the last one.
I loved Correa when he first came up. He is a massive shortstop. I couldn’t even see Altuve behind him. But he played 109, 110 and 75 games between 2017-2019. He had full years in 20 and 21, but one could argue that he stayed because the seasons were shot.
I’d also point out that his OPS was .728 in 2018 and .709 in 2020.
I’d be concerned about Story’s transition from Mile High to a neutral park, but his performance in the three years prior to 2021, was flawless.
The concern about Coors is why I used park-adjusted numbers when looking at all their offensive stats. I only used the WAR stats in response.
looking at just the last few seasons usually makes sense, but right now, with that odd 60-season in 2020, it’s less than illustrative. Especially, when one of the players being compared lost some time to injury in that 3 year span. It becomes almost a small sample. And again, for vets who have been around for awhile, the more recent stats make sense. But Story and Correa are so young I think the larger sample of their careers tell you more.
Those low OPS numbers should be taken with some skepticism, again, because 2020 was such an odd year, and Correa missed almost 40 games mid-season in 2018. As you point out the 2020 season was shot, but why did you include the current season in that assessment? There’s no reason not to expect 2021 to be a normal season.
I understand the durability concern, but the upside with Correa is so great, IMO, better than any of the other FA SS, that I would gamble on him. He just might be a generational talent.
@Bucket – Staying on the field and healthy is a tangible and very valuable skill.
No
Running your mouth all the time is not leadership. Seager is better just because he is quiet. No baggage with him.
Seager has no baggage? He can’t stay healthy!
As a Dodger fan, I wish Seager was a better defender. Excellent bat, not glove.
Seager is better off as a 3b (like his brother) and I agree he is not a SS his lateral move to get to a ball is not top flight.
Yes cause getting hit by a fastball on your hand is baggage
Seager has 3 seasons with over 500 PAs. Correa has one season with over 500 PAs. They both have had their share of injuries. Part of Story’s upside is his durability. But he is also older.
I wonder if he’ll have a broader market than Correa or Story because some teams might be looking at him as a third baseman.
Correa is both
They’re still talking about the black Sox scandal. The steroid scandal is still impacting Bonds, Clemens, etc… Whether you like it or not, the Astros scandal is one for the history books. It’s going to be talked about for the rest of time. Some will move past it, others won’t. That’s one of the beauties of sports. So you can just say get over it, or you can just get over the fact that some people won’t ever get over it.
CursedRangers:
It’s one thing to talk about past scandals, but years later, those scandals having a negative impact on a team, or a player, is another thing entirely.
The Black Sox scandal has to be the most egregious in the history of baseball. But what negative effects is baseball, or the Chicago W Sox, experiencing from that scandal?
It’s true that there are lingering effects from the steroid scandal, but most people believe that Bonds and Clemens will both eventually be inducted in to the HoF, and the negative effects will subside just like the Black Sox scandal has.
Not saying people will forget the sign stealing scandal, but other than fans booing the Astros, no former Astro player will feel any kind of negative effective when it comes to things that matter, It won’t prevent anyone from signing a big contract, and playing out their careers had there been a scandal or not.
I was going to say the same thing: of all sports, the game of baseball is shaped and remembered as much for its historical past as it is for its future.
Names like Pete Rose, Jose Canseco, Shoeless Joe, Roger Clemens, Barry Bonds, etc. carry a negative stigma that cannot be shaken. I think for the trash can scandal, that name is Jose Altuve. Correa may slide past it, maybe, but Altuves rep and relations with his peers will never be the same.
Good day sir!!!!!
Have a great season this year and teams will see beyond The Scandal. Springer got 6y/$150m & that with many more cloudy questions at that moment. Agree with your years/AAV assessment!
Happy birthday, man! lol
Aww thank you 🙂
What has Altuve done in reaction to the scandal other than get the f-word from the Northeast fans?
It doesn’t go away on MLBTR’s message board. Outside of that – who’s talking about it ? More importantly, who’s talking about that makes significant baseball decisions. Springer could have not got a cent more in free agency so it’s pretty evident that execs who build teams care little and less.
They all cheat. No reason to sugar coat it and pretend other wise unless you are holding onto the American dream still
Hard for a Canadian to hold onto the American Dream
What does this have to do with Dusty Rhodes? He was never a Canadian in the first place.
I know of Randy Rhoads….who’s Dusty?
Have you watched their road games? Getting booed all game. I think those people care
Of course those fans care. But how much say do fans have, whether they care or not, on FO decisions? Zero. And that’s what is being discussed here. The scandal will nave no impact on where he signs, or for how much money he signs for.
I mostly agree with you. But I suspect the FOs of the LAD and the NYY will not be eager to make offers in free agency to Correa. Those are the two biggest markets.
But I’m sure there are plenty of organizations that will gladly make Correa a competitive offer, regardless of his lack of composure when someone flashes a pouty face in his direction.
15yearoldbaseballfanatic:
When FOs decide whether to go after Correa, the durability will be a factor in the discussion. But the bad PR from the sign stealing scandal is a total nothing-burger. That will not be any kind factor in any team’s decision to pursue Correa, or not. FOs just don’t care about that.
That was more a case of me being lazy/trying to find questionable things with Correa’s underlying performance for more reasons to add to the post, but he’s been good. I’m not an exec.
Fair enough.
Happy birthday.
Thanks!
I guess I’m not sure why people are now fine with the Astros cheating scandal. It was a coordinated team-wide conspiracy to cheat. They all participated and all benefited and NONE of them admitted, apologized or were penalized. IDK why ALL teams wouldn’t do that now, since the league basically slapped a few coaches and took a couple of draft picks. They got all the glory and money without penalty. Still, I think opposing teams are going to value Correa & Seager on their perceived abilities and ignore the past transgressions or character issues
Paolo1900
I guess I’m not sure why people are now fine with the Astros cheating scandal.
=========================================================================
People aren’t fine. They got caught and they got punished, so we move on.
The A’s, Rangers, and Yankees have had PEDs scandals. Atlanta fixed international signings. St. Louis hacked the Astros databases. The Padres falsified medical records.
The other 26 teams? They likely cheated on smaller scales, or just haven’t been caught, or the MLB figured a few of them needed all the help they can get.
While I can definitely Baez getting a $100 million plus contract, I hope my team doesn’t give it to him.
id be shocked if he *didnt* get $100 million
I’d be surprised if Baez got more than Semien even though he’s 2 years younger. Heck I think Chris Taylor has a good shot at getting more than Javy.
i dunno. not saying I agree, but do FO’s always do smart stuff? Baez has name recognition, a great, versitile glove, massive baseball IQ, and as much as his recent numbers are “meh,” he’s shown he’s a top 5 talent at points in the past.
Any GM that gives Baez $100 million should be given a psych eval. I would be floored if someone offers him half that.
Lol $50 million. Sure. I guarantee he’ll be offered more than that, and I am just a fan watching from the outside. GM’s look at players objectively, unlike fans. (And now for someone to post the exception to my claim and act like that is the standard)
“GM’s look at players objectively, unlike fans.”
Lol. Really? Because I could point to a great many objectively stupid contracts that were given by GM’s.
Yah with hindsight
A lot of those objectively bad contracts looked bad when they were signed. Put it this way, I’m saying now that the Lindor contract will be bad. Yet still, once it does turn out to be bad, someone will still pop up and shout, “hindsight.”
With all due respect. Perhaps maybe you don’t (nor any of us) have the full story on what makes a contract successful or not?
All we get to see is the number, but you don’t necessarily get to see all the ins and outs of the business, season ticket sales, jersey sales, tv contract money etc. It’s a business, and yes winning is always the best way to ensure a good product but I’m sure there have been plenty of deals that the average fan will say ‘see failure’ but the owners/brass would do it again.
The reason Lindor got so much is because the game of baseball CAN afford to pay its stars that much based on revenues. It’s either staying in the owners pockets or it’s going to the players, I for one prefer it going to the players.
Oh, I make no bones about how I judge contracts: performance vs money on payroll. (There is a limit to every teams payroll budget). If a team made a profit in jersey sales, etc (absolutely no way for a fan to accurately know these things) I don’t know or care. Did said contract help or hinder the teams winning?That’s all I care about.
Why though? Baez is great and has elite skills. He deserves close to $200 million for the level of entertainment he brings the fans, his K rate doesn’t matter in his case.
Javy’s bat speed slows down a tick and he’d be lucky to provide 10 million dollars worth of value.
He’s an albatross if (more likely when) that happens.
He’s 28 years old right now. That’s the prime of his career. I don’t want him on a 100 million dollar deal into his 30’s.
He’s an exciting player that has done a great job utilizing his physical tools to offset his deficiencies. And his physical tools are out of this world. However, once his speed in the field and his bat speed starts to slow down, he won’t be very exciting to watch. Baez in his 30s is not an inspiring option to me.
Baez has been timed as the fastest player in baseball running from first back to home.
As a cubs’ fan, I like Javy and I’m glad I’ve gotten to watch him over the years, but I don’t want them to re-sign him.
Baseball … is a tale. Told by an idiot, full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
What you are you even talking about? The game has changed but even in this age people see Baez as a risky move.
Javy just isn’t a good hitter. His approach is terrible and he doesn’t get on base at a good clip. Sure, he makes some highlight plays but that’s about it. Overall, he’s just another guy.
@A’sfan
I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but you aren’t the decider of who’s right and wrong.
I’d venture to say that most people here disagree with your narrow minded point of view more often than not…
Jonny5 is 100% correct.
Pretty sure he’s a troll. He comes off like such a stereotype. Maybe that’s just me wanting to believe people aren’t actually like that.
Hopefully Mike Rizzoli learned there was 0 benefit to keeping Harper in his last year and he gets a kings ransom for Max.
and freaking spell check got me on the rizzo lol
Has Scherzer publicly commented on whether or not he’d wave his NTC this year?
Not that I’ve seen. However, I’m sure he would leave for a chance to win another ring.
Semien can’t even get an honourable mention or what
Sorry didn’t see it
Rough year for him to be a free agent.
Would love for him to fall back to the Jays, on a 4/60 type deal
With the year he’s having, you’re not resigning Semien for anything less than 4/90 or something in that price range.
Ya I agree with that 4/90 sounds way more realistic 4/60 only happens if he falls off a cliff
I’m not sure he’ll get that much given the market for SS and how many teams aren’t actively looking to spend . However I do agree anything under 90 would be a steal
Even though he has stolen 6 championships from me, I hope that the Yanks go sign Correa an that we become v. close friends.
Six championships? How do you figure?
I love how Yankee fans assume they would have won every single WS if they Astros didn’t exist. Maybe the Yankees should start stealing some signs because they can’t hit the broad side of a barn right now.
Steve
The Yankees were fined for sign stealing before the Astros were busted. That’s what led to the letter from the commish telling teams to cut it out
Also, wonder why the yanks are working so hard to keep that letter sealed even after the judge said it must be made public? Hmmmm
The red sox did it to the yankees first
The Yankees were never fined for “sign stealing”. They were fined for having phone in the dugout, reading is hard.
Why did NYY use the dugout phone and a fake “Yes network” TV camera live in games if they were not stealing signs?
Seager is a much better fit. The lineup needs more lefties not another right-handed bat.
Seager is injury prone, so yes, he does fit better with NYY
Outside of the UCL, it’s not that bad. I can’t call getting hit by a pitch something he did.
Six? And here I always thought it was Luis Gonzalez who got that hit in 2001, when in fact it was 7-year-old Carlos Correa.
Luis Gonzalez was a long time Astros so this theory actually makes a lot of sense.
And Steve Finley was a medium time Astro
Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling were short time Astros.
Wow. Six championships. Johnny has had plenty of posters pile on him so normally I would just leave this alone but this take is so bad I just can’t walk away from it. This is as delusional as trickle down economics. Notice how there isn’t any Yankee fans defending this? Maybe it’s time to open your eyes to the broader baseball world around you.
The Yankees have 1 title in the last 21 years no matter what they think of themselves.
Would you care to look at his OTHER WAR totals every season? Also, OBP is a pretty cool thing too.
How many do the A’s have since 1989? How many WS appearances?
diverting. typical.
Meanwhile the Brokeland A’s have won absolutely nothing ever. Jealousy is a disease.
@Johnny NY – Keep in mind the Yankees hired a lawyer to put a gag order on MLB to prevent them from releasing their findings on a sign stealing investigation of the Yankees organization. Their argument was that it would cause irreparable harm to the franchise if it were to be released; somehow they got the courts to agree to this and the report was never made public. The Yankees and their fans have no right to be throwing stones in the glass house they live in.
Dorothy….amazing how well the media has kept this from being a story. They have to protect their cash cow yanks
The only thing in that sealed letter is a bunch of interesting old stamps that legends like Babe Ruth and Joe DiMaggio have licked. themselves so it has hero saliva in it. Anyone who says differently is a fake newser.
Baez is overrated, he swings and misses way too much
Baez will get a big contract because GG caliber SS with 30 HR power and the ability to steal 15-20 bases don’t grow on trees.
However, I hope the Cubs don’t get trigger happy and give him that money, I’d rather pay way less for Marcus Semien.
Capi:
I don’t think Semien is anywhere close to the player Baez is. I agree that Baez has his faults, but the only reason Semien is being talked about is he’s having a good season. But he’s been very inconsistent throughout his career. 2021 and 2019 are the only 2 seasons where he’s been an above average MLB hitter.
He’s been close to MLB average in most of his other 7 seasons, which would be fine if he were an exceptional defender, but he isn’t. I think he might currently be haven’t a good year because he isn’t playing SS in Toronto. Less pressure to produce with the glove.
I agree that Semiens is not as good, therefore he won’t cost as much and the Cubs won’t get stuck with a long long contract, like the one Javy is looking for… But still enough time to see what they’ve got in guys like Hoerner, Strumpf, Ed Howard, Reggie Preciado, Cristian Hernandez, etc…
Capi:
That makes sense, but Semien is not that good with the glove. If you’re thinking bang for the buck, I think I’d rather have a good glove guy with lesser offensive numbers, because SS is such a critical position.
Semien was elite in 2019, played 53 games in 2020 (wasnt allowed to battle out of an early slump, and was elite in the playoffs that year) and now is elite again in 2021. He thoroughly deserves 5/100 this offseason, he’s not inconsistent.
A’sfaninUK:
Semien, in his first 6 seasons, had a 96 OPS+. The next year it was 140. Last year it was 90. So far this season it’s 138. For his career to date it’s 107.
I’d say that was inconsistent. If I were a GM I’d worry that the 140 OPS+ in 2019 was an outlier. What it is at the end of this year will tell us a lot. But at this point in time, I’m still not completely sold on him
Javier Baez lifetime OPS+ is 103. I don’t see how a guy with average lifetime numbers deserves a big contract and $20+ million per year. Maybe it’s just me?
Baez may struggle to get the contract many think he will get. Only so many teams will be willing to throw out 9 figures for a SS in a given year, and there are 3 here who are clearly ahead of him
Why is Baez on that list?
Ya, I thought similarly. I saw a few honorable mentions I preferred but this is somewhat of a subjective endeavor.
6 WAR players who win win gloves are considered very good at baseball?
You must care about strikeout totals. Yawn.
WAR haha, good joke. He’s an average player overall. Other than some pop, his approach is atrocious.
“You must care about strikeout totals. Yawn.”
You mentioned it, not me. I’m more concerned with his paltry AVG/OBP.
Never thought I’d say this in a million years, but I hope the Giants resign Crawford for a few more years.
I could see you guys push for a Seager or Correa singing… hate to say it but the sooner I accept it, the sooner I’ll get over it. This fun NL West 3-team race is the start of many more to come, I think. Cheers bud!
I could possibly see them extending the QO and him accepting it, but he had too many meh seasons leading up to this one which indicates to me he turns it on in walk years and coasts otherwise.
No josh Harrison ? Wait and see when he gets 2-3 years
I like J-Hay, but he’s going to be 34. Nobody is going to give a league average utility player 2-3 years.
Zero chance he gets three years. Unless maybe three years, $3MM?
Syndergaard should be in many conversations if he can make at least a handful of starts and performs well.
Considering pitchers almost always need an extra year to get back to their pre surgery selves, I can easily see Thor taking a QO and hitting the market next off-season fully healthy.
Mets should be in on Starling Marte or if they lose Conforto to FA go after Castellanos and maybe Kimbrell to replace Conforto and Familia
Marte on a one year deal maybe, but no more; he’ll be 33. Castellanos can’t field and I hate paying for guys coming off career years. I’d rather just go after Conforto with that money. As for Kimbrel, how much does he really have left in the tank? He wasn’t very good in’19 or ‘20
“..I hate paying guys coming off career years.”
Wisdom right there my friend. To many of us have short memories. Career years tend to not be repeated. They’re called career years for a reason.
What team do you own? You aren’t paying anyone. Stop this madness.
A’sfan, relax. Adults are conversing.
If he isn’t paying anyone, he might as well own the A’s…
I guarantee that Baez gets way more than $100 mil. because he’s a wizard anywhere in the infield, a great baserunner and hits for power. Plus, he’s only 28.
And, I’m a White Sox fan.
I’d rather sign Iglesias. Great.defense, fast runner, hits for a higher ave, doesn’t strike out a ton, and won’t require multiple Brinks trucks to sign.
Here’s to hoping the Rangers get E-Rod for a 3 year deal. His ERA is horrible, but all of his other stats say that he’s just as good as he’s ever been. I wonder what kind of money he’ll get coming from the big market as well. I’m guessing 15 million or more AAV, but I’ve had people call me crazy for saying that.
E-rod probably takes a short deal to try to get near-100 million in the future. I’d give him 3/45 and take the gamble in a heartbeat if he’d sign it.
Even with a down year this season, E-Rod will be given a QO by Boston so it’s going to cost a high draft pick for another team to sign him. With the QO guaranteeing him $19M for one year, there’s no way E-Rod signs a deal for 3/$45M. He’s going to ask for Zach Wheeler money (5/$125M-ish). If he ends up ‘settling’, it’s going to be for 5/$100M or maybe 4/$85M. Anything lower than that and he’s going to bet on himself while pitching under the QO for 2022 (provided there even is a season with the CBA lurking) and go to free agency again in 2023. The only way he signs for $15M/yr. is if some team offers him a 10 year deal, which we all know is not going to happen, so remove E-Rod from your Texas wish list unless they are willing to pay him $20M+ per year.
i dunno. he’s struggling in a historically great year for pitchers. i get he lost last year, but $20 isnt nothing, unless team finances changed after last year.
Everyone wants Story on the A’s, but he’s clearly damaged goods and is not a good player this year. Is he better than Andrus? Yes. But so are Chad Pinder and Nick Allen.
They’d never resign him but if he could pass a physical – id say it’s more he’s over Denver than damaged goods
Remember Kevin Gausman anytime someone tries to say the Braves can develop pitching.
Show me the spin rates from then til now. He’s a suspect
Gausman? If we’re just going by spin rate, he’s not very suspect. Right now, he has a lower spin rate this year than compared to 2020. His highest single season fastball spin rate was in 2015 at 2348 RPM, but he averaged nearly 96 MPH.
Yeah no way Gausman is clean right now, open your eyes man haha
He wasn’t originally a Braves pitcher so they didn’t develop him.
No, but they acquired him when he was 27. The Giants clearly found something that he could improve on, just like they did with Drew Smyly last year.
Gausman started 127 games as an Oriole vs. 26 games as a Brave and you think Braves developed him? He played maybe the equivalent of 1 full season with ATL (acquired 2018 season, traded 2019 season to CIN). I mean, there’s many good examples of ATL pitching misses, but he’s not one. He’s put it together in SF to a point that I think even Zaidi is taken aback (or else he would have signed him long-term already). I’m still interested to see how his stuff plays going forward knowing he only pitched about ~60 IP in 2020 and he’s at 77.2 IP now in 2021. Obviously there’ll be some regression from his fantastic season start, I just wonder how much he’ll hold up after 150 IP.
Gausman doesn’t deserve 100mil contract considering his 6+ era with ATL and Cincinnati
What can Seattle third baseman Kyle Seager expect in free agency if the Mariners decline the 2022 team option for $15 million plus escalators?
In 229 games since the start of the 2019 season, Seager has posted 5.8 fWAR, valued at $46.4 million, including 1.4 fWAR, valued at $10.9 million, in 63 games this season. Seager is in the final guaranteed year of a seven-year, $100 million contract.
In 235 games over the same period, Justin Turner, who is three years older than Seager, has posted 6.2 fWAR, valued at $49.7 million, including 1.5 fWAR, valued at $12.8 million, in 58 games this year. Last offseason Turner signed a two-year, $34 million contract.
In 231 games over the same periood, Josh Donaldson, who is two years older than Seager, has posted 6.5 fWAR, valued at $52.3 million, including 0.8 fWAR, valued at $6.3 million, in 48 games this year. Donaldson is in the second year of a four-year, $92 million contract.
In 272 games over the same period, Manny Machado, who is four-and-a-half years younger than Seager, has posted 7.0 fWAR, valued at $55.6 million, including 1.3 fWAR, valued at $10.5 million, in 56 games this year. Machado is in the third year of a 10-year, $300 million contract.
Given those comps, what would Kyle Seager be worth in free agency?
Good question. Probably less than the other guys you mentioned, which might make him a relative bargain. He’s similar to Chris Taylor in a way. Not a star and past age 30, but over the length of whatever deal he signs, will. give you more bang for your buck (though it wouldn’t be stunning if Taylor got a really good contract).
Unless they sign or trade for someone who can play the hot corner, M’s should bring back Kyle. The 15 Million is reasonable for the position which he plays at still a high level and I can deal with his streaks at the plate. Still need a veteran presence on the club if they trade Haniger which is expected.
Two more HR today. DiPoto’s phone must be ringing off the hook with inquiries about Haniger. That contract of his assures a nice return in terms of big-league-ready talent. As a Mariners fan, what do you feel are the positions of need as the deadline approaches?
@Cey Hey – Starting pitching and depth at really any of the infield positions.
Who has the means and wherewithal to buy an (probably) expensive, aging 3-bagger next season? Braves, Brewers, Cubs, Mets, Pale Hose first teams that I can think of… Yanks? Whittle the list down to the potential buyers and we can start to formulate a rough guess as to what his market will be.
With regard to aging third basemen, Kyle Seager is younger and healthier than Josh Donaldson and Justin Turner, who landed contracts of four years, $92 milion and two years, $34 million, respectively.
Seager’s only IL stint in his 11-year MLB career came after a hand injury suffered at the end of Spring Training in 2019.
Kyle Seager has played in every Mariner game since June 29, 2019, a streak of 200 straight games. Does any player have a longer current streak?
Whit Merrifield may be playing in his 367th straight game tonight but Kyle Seager may well be in second place.
No way Mariners let seager go. They’ll pay him 15 and then a QO the next season
I would agree; that should be their plan.
I’d love to see him in ATL on a 2 yr deal. Riley can move to LF. Offense and defense upgraded.
Kenley Jansen is having an excellent season and deserves a shout.
Sticking with the Dodgers, an interesting free-agency will be Chris Taylor’s. Since the start of last September, Taylor had led the team in runs scored, RBI, and OPS. Given his versatility, he should be attractive to quite a few teams, even though he won’t get the years or AAV of the big four shortstops. In the eyes of some teams, that might make him a bargain. Career-wise, he’s on an excellent run at exactly the right time.
While I love Seager’s bat, in some ways I feel Taylor is a better fit moving forward. Better glove, less money. A lot will depend on how the team feels about Gavin Lux as their everyday shortstop. While he’s been good in Seager’s absence, I’m not sure he’s shown enough. A fluid situation. It wouldn’t surprise me if any nor all three are gone by 2022’s opening day; Seager and Taylor over the winter and Lux by the July deadline to bolster this year’s championship run. Lux is a good player. I just wish he’d hit the ball with more authority. Since his trade value is still excellent, it wouldn’t shock me if he was involved in a deal for a really good righty bat.
Excellent takes, Ron! Next season, I’d prefer to have CT at his price over Seager at his. The versatility and solid glove speak highly to CT’s playability. You could even slot him in as an everyday player and he might just be one or two notches below Seager’s offensive output.
Gwynning, Seager and Taylor played their first games for the Dodgers in 2016. Since then, Seager has played in 578 games and Taylor in 566. Seager leads in WAR, 18.5 to 14.5. Not that big a difference when you consider how Taylor has helped the team by playing various decisions. Save the money by bringing in Taylor, use the savings to address other areas. Don’t get me wrong. As a Dodger fan, I love Seager. I’m just concerned with the noticeable decline in defense with playable balls getting past him. His willingness or unwillingness to move to 3B will affect his market this winter. As for Taylor, he might want to play just one position, but you at least know he’s agreeable to moving around if necessary.
Take the Padres, for instance. Taylor would be a good option for left field, while at the same time being a suitable short-term replacement if Tatis, Cronenworth or even Machado gets hurt (he’s played 3B though the other positions more). And we know Pham is not signed beyond this year. Interesting stuff when you consider the rivalry. There’s also a San Francisco connection to Taylor with Zaidi.
Well said and all spot-on. Aloha!
Cey, If Taylor gets 15M or less AAV, I would agree with your take on value Regarding Seager+Taylor
But if he approaches 20M AAV or more than 5 years, which should not be ruled out, especially if he can get a bidding war going, I think I’d pay more for Seager, simply expecting him to be my 3B within the next 4 seasons or so.
Over 4 1/3 seasons, and only about 3 seasons worth of games, a 4 win gap is fairly substantial I’d argue
Taylor does seem to be on an upward trend overall on his career, and I’ve said before I hope LA keeps Taylor. If any team has recent success with late bloomers, it’s the Dodgers. But a fair bit of his value 16-21 is defensive. Seager’s value comes mainly from his bat. Which do you think will trend downward faster?
I’ve never understood why any fan would be gunning for a team to save money especially when it so clearly makes the team worse. But riddle me this, if Seager, Taylor and Lux all go, who plays shortstop?
Think Castellanos opts out of his remaining 2 years $34mill? A $17mill AAV might not be in his future, but since he’s only 29, a 5 year deal should be…
If he continues to rake, yes. He will get more years and AAV.
9 potential free agent shortstops, I don’t think the big 3 are getting anywhere near Lindor money when there are so many other options.
Also Verlander has to be among the honorable mentions. He will still project to be a #1 or #2.
Realistically, you have to wonder how many teams will be going all-in on a megadeal for a shortstop. Quite a few of the best prospects today play the position. How big of a market will it really be?
Cey Hey, this giants fan would rather have Semien. 2nd base is a bigger need. Crawford can bridge to Luciano. I’m not a belt hater but he’s hurt a lot. So Freeman needs to be a SF target too. Without Cueto and Belt they’d have $ for both. A shut down reliever too? Why not? PenguinMays…comments?
Why don’t the Giants just spend $900 million this offseason? No issues with that
Claude:
As a Giants fan I’m not loving your plan for them. Not a Semien fan, and he’ll be 31 next season. I prefer Dubon over Semiean at 2B, plus they have Tommy LaStella signed for 2 more years.
I love Freddie Freeman, but he’ll be 32 next season, and it will take a multi-year deal. That kind of signing got the Giants into the mess they’re now getting themselves out of.
And yes they will have money to spend with Cueto coming off the books, but they also have the contracts of Gausman, DeSclafani, Wood, and Sanchez all ending at the end of this season. Starting pitching has to be the priority for this team. Logan Webb is the only guy guaranteed to be back next season, injury not withstanding..
Thanks Tad. I dont think of Dubon as an everyday 2nd baseman so therefore I believe its a definite need–more necessary than shortstop.. And I feel Lastella best fits a utility role. And they seem to be able to find starting pitching so I’m not worried about starters. Going back to my first post, I’ll focus on what I think is the main priority–shut down reliever. That reliever is the most glaring need to me. You and several have posted questions about Semien, BUT he has steadily improved in all facets. At 31 he will be in his prime and shouldn’t regress. But, these are only my expectations/opinions obviously. So Tad, give me your take on a priority.
Freeman will be in ATL for his entire career.
claude:
I don’t think the issue of the rotation is that easily dismissed. Yes, they have been able to find pitching, but next season will be tougher. Last year they could count on Gausman, Webb, and Cueto coming back, 3/5s of the rotation. Next year Webb is the only one that is guaranteed to be back. That has to be Zaidi’s priority. And if 2022 is like this year everyone will be looking for pitching.
As much as I like Crawford, and what he’s doing this season, I wouldn’t pass up the chance to sign one of the FA SS. There has never been this much SS talent available in free-agency before, and it will be awhile before there is again.
Correa would be my first choice. He’s has everything. He’s a better defender than most, only Baez and Story are better with the glove, and he’s a much better hitter than either of them. The only guy that hits better, and only slightly at that, is Seager, who is not a good fielder, at -9 OAA. Plus Correa is only 27.
Do not want Semien at all. He’s not even suited to play SS. He’s a worse defender than Seager, much worse. His OAA since 2015 is -23. His OPS+ for the first 6 years of his career was 96. Then he posted a 140 OPS+ in 2019. Did he figure something out, change his swing, or was that an outlier? AT 31 he will regress in a few years. Correa’s age is much more attractive.
I agree they do need a shut down reliever, but I think that might be the easier of the many things Zaidi has on his plate for 2022.
Correa would be my top shortstop target, but, again, Semien is my 2nd base target. 2 errors all year. I doubt very much they’ll spend big on a shortstop. They’ll re-sign Crawford to bridge to Luciano or Wilson. IMO
That’s because you can typically convert a SS to basically any other position, but you can’t convert other positions into SS. The best infielders play SS until they have to get moved off the position.
Padres right now are the classic example of this. Tatis, Machado, Cronenworth, Profar, Mateo, Kim, all played SS professionally but they use a lot of these guys all over the diamond now.
CNichols, Great stuff. Given the depth at SS these days and lack of quality CFs, I’m surprised more teams aren’t looking to make that conversion. Re the Padres, don’t forget about Abrams, who figures to force a position switch for someone. Brilliant strategy by the Padres, though, in this era of 13-man pitching staffs. The Dodgers have also done this, too. As I mentioned elsewhere, it has me a bit nervous about Chris Taylor’s free agency. Not only with the Dodgers possibly losing him, but that he might end up in enemy hands in the NL West (Zaidi’s Giants if not the Padres). Those multi-position guys have value beyond their numbers because they add value to their teammates by allowing them to rest.
Chris Taylor is the perfect target for the Giants. I don’t see them going for the Top 5 Free Agents, but Taylor fits Zaidi’s plan like a glove and they will overpay to get him.
bingo. this is the year the bubble bursts. a few of them will get paid, but someone’s getting left out. Like Semian, I’d guarantee one needs to change positions to cash in.
Verlander is going to be an interesting FA. Wonder if he’ll take a one year (maybe with a second year option) prove it kind of deal, or if he’ll decide to play one more season before hanging up the cleats.
Verlander has indicated he wants to pitch into his 40s.
J D Martinez is out of OPT outs so he is back for 1 more yr. in 22.
The BoSox have a team option for 22 on Richards at 8.5MM new $$$. Given how he has pitched since a horrible April, no way he becomes a FA.
You’re implying the Red Sox retain the option…?
Richards contract has a team option. They can pay him 1.5MM and let him go or 10MM and keep him. That makes it an 8.5 MM team option. The 1.5 MM is part of the guarantee for this yr.
Thanks, I was confused. Solid!
JD’s option is for slightly less than $20M, so I see Boston exercising that for sure, especially if the universal DH is finally made permanent. They sign him for a reasonable salary and could even move him at the deadline if all of their kids are up and playing well (Dalbec, Duran, Downs and maybe even Casas). JD would be a huge trade target come July.
Sorry, my edit timed out. JD is on a player option for 2022, so I see them offering him a new deal for $22-$23M and adding on an extra year as well. He loves playing in Boston but he would also become a huge trade chip if the rookies are playing well and provided that he doesn’t negotiate a no trade clause. With the CBA talks looming, it’s a tough decision for JD, but I do see him opting out this year and hopefully resigning with Boston.
I’m not sure the JD is the automatic opt-out some make him out to be. Post-April, JD has a .761 OPS, despite a .340 BABIP. Basically, 4 HRs in 127 ABs, with a 31/11 K/W.
It’s too small a sample, and too long a season, but he could easily wind up as a .825-.850 hitter. And, even if he opts out, we can tag him. Will someone offer him 2 years when the contract would start at age 34+, and give up a draft pick?
He only becomes a trade chip if they are not contending. Is that what you expect to happen?
JDM is on a two-year deal with three player options. So for the Red Sox to have him for 2022 he’ll have to opt in to a $19.375MM.
Good point on Richards, he probably shouldn’t be on there.
Verlander – honorable mention? Can you imagine if some team signs both Verlander and Scherzer going into 2022? Lotsa hype and probably great pitching too.
Cot’s shows JD with a 5 yr deal and 2 opt outs after 19 & 20. Sportrac is showing 3 opt outs but that’s not the way it was reported when he signed so who knows. Anyway, at his age, no way he gets 100MM in his next contract.
Cot’s is incorrect, my info on that is confirmed.
Kris Bryant has played 37 games in the outfield and 25 at 3B or 1B. Not enough data to say how he has shaken out defensively, but a shown versatility that could increase his value.
KB is not a good outfielder. He lacks speed and mobility there. I think Kris is passable in right field. Please not in centerfield. The warning track scares him.
What’s the Over/Under on how many of these guys the Pirates sign?
The opening line is currently at .5
I’ll take the under.
No Matt Barnes?
I can’t wait until Arte Moreno signs Freeman for 5/150 and moves Walsh to right field then dumpster dives for a bullpen.
Freeman will be in ATL for his entire career.
Castellanos honorable mention and not top 10 over guys like Baez and Coors-fed Story? This should have already been reshuffled and will get reshuffled before the fall for sure..
I don’t see Castellanos as a $100MM guy, in that Ozuna didn’t come close last winter.
Tim, How do you view Chris Taylor? Not $100 million, obviously. But with 13-man pitching staffs and the emphasis on versatility, there might be a lot of competition for his services. It doesn’t hurt that he’s statistically been the Dodgers’ best all-around player since last September 1 (largely due to his staying healthy). He’s been their leader in runs scored, RBI, and OPS over that stretch.
A lot more money in play with fans back in the seats. Castellanos could very well get 100 mil
he’s gotta keep up the hitting and not fall off a cliff down the line like he did last year.
Jon Gray should be on this list somewhere, I’d think.
Freeman is ranked way too low. I’d put him number one because he quietly performs every year and seems like a good dude to have in the clubhouse.
I think the Dodgers will get Freeman.
Not a chance. Freeman not only has to show that his big drop-off in production this year is just a slump, the Dodgers aren’t likely to commit big money to a player who can man only the one position. Just not their style.
Not really true. AJ Pollock? This front office’s largest positional free agent expenditure to date?
If they pass on Seager, they could have JT at 3B, Lux at SS, Muncy at 2B and Freeman at 1B
I can’t imagine Freeman as a Dodger. Doesn’t make sense for them, but then again, they have the capabilities. Feels like if he’s going anywhere outside ATL (which I’m starting to accept the idea more with every day), seeing him as an Angel under Perry Minasian, though former Bulldog Jared Walsh is a stud 1B.
The one position being 1B, a defensively low-value position where the Dodgers have multiple options with players who can handle other positions on any given day. Pollock plays two outfield positions. You can try to come up with a fit for Freeman on the Dodgers, but I just don’t see it. A more likely scenario IMO is Turner gets more time at 1B and the Dodgers go shopping for in the 3B market, assuming they are happy with the way Lux is coming along at SS, and depending on what happens with Rios.
Age is the issue that moves him down
If anyone can try and predict Mark Canha’s market I’d love to hear it. He plays all OF spots and 1B decently well and can DH too – but he’s 33 next year. Can he get a 3/45 deal from someone, maybe Boston?
His chances increase significantly if the NL gets the DH! Good player, would seem to have something left in the tank… Michael Brantley-ish type contract?
I love Cahna but Boston doesn’t need him. I see Boston re-signing Renfroe and Jarren Duran will be up to play CF for the foreseeable future. Jeter Downs should be close to the majors as well next year, so Boston’s starting offense looks pretty solid for 2022. The only question marks could be their 3rd outfielder (if Renfroe falls apart) and maybe 1B if Dalbec struggles all year, but they have their long term answer at 1B in Triston Casas down in AA and they still have Kiké for one more year as well who plays all over the place. If they get JD to opt in or re-sign, Boston’s focus for 2022 will be on re-signing their young studs (Devers, Verdugo and Xander’s opt out) and then they will focus primarily on pitching additions. I’m guessing the will look to re-sign E-Rod, pick up the option on Richards and try to re-sign Barnes as well. If there is any money left over, they’ll go hard after a solid #2 or #3 pitcher and some bullpen help. Losing Mata (their best pitching prospect) to TJS this year really hurt their plans for next season, but hopefully Connor Seabold will be ready. If so, their staff would be: Sale – ERod – FREE AGENT – Richards – Pivetta with Seabold in the pen as a 6th starter or long guy. Boston’s future looks really bright!
I assume that Perez will be in the rotation, and I think Whitlock would be ahead of Seabold as the 6th starter. Feels good to have a little depth. I’m not quite use to that.
You think the 3rd year is iffy on Scherzer? I guarantee he’ll get multiple 4 year offers, maybe even with some sort of 5th year option…4-120.
i would say 3. Verlander got two years at $33, so Max can get 3 with a little more total. 4 at his age is probably pushing it, even as good as he is. Verlander, likewise, is a cautionary tale.
Both Scherzer and Verlander are probably looking at 2 year offers with some sort of 3rd year option (player option or vesting option). I don’t see any team committing a full 3 years to guys who will turn 40 (or close to it) at the end of year 3. If they are smart, each pitcher will go the Clemens route and keep signing huge, one-year deals until they are ready (or forced) to retire. Not only will they make more money that way, it will allow them to keep their options open if they want to go ring hunting one more time.
Will be interesting to see what the Nationals offer Scherzer. Publicly they’re still in compete mode. But if they don’t make a strong offer it’ll be pretty clear they’re at least taking a pause if not entering an all-out rebuild.
daily reminder that Bauer is a bum
Daily reminder you’re a horrible analyzer of talent
Bauer has a 2.40 ERA and is 3rd in the NL with 103Ks. Oh and he’s thrown the 2nd most innings in the NL
He makes any rotation better
He made a point with grip enhancers. He called Cole out then proved he was correct by showing the same increase. All he’s been asking for is an even playing field. You clearly are unable to take your personal feelings out of talent assessment
All that aside, he’s still a jackarse. That you, Trevor?
Daily reminder that you’re a clown
You can take Bauer off the list. The Dodgers are stuck with that contact.
Thank you! Have a good night!
Yes, I’m sure they are so mad about being “stuck” with a top 5 pitcher in baseball for only two more years. How will they cope?
No Pujols? Odd…
I think it is pretty clear, as long as everyone ends the season healthy, Correa gets the most years because of youth and upside, Story gets the highest AAV because he’s the biggest impact bat that will stay at SS, Baez gets just below Correa’s deal mainly because of talent/age, Seager signs a shorter term deal because of questions with his future at SS.
I just say don’t sleep on Brandon Crawford. He is having a better season than all of these guys. He won’t leave SF unless they kick him out, but he will get more money than anyone would have thought he would be getting on Opening Day.
Don’t agree with “Kris bryant was an obvious trade candidate.”
They won division last year. The only people that were thinking that he was an obvious trade candidate are those that assumed the cubs were going to suck… literally, he’s not ever been an obvious trade candidate at all. To those that have suggested that, they just want it to happen.
That aside, i do believe he will play for the red sox
I thought that was a ridiculous notion. They won the division despite really bad seasons from Baez, Bryant and Kimbrel. Downgrading from Darvish to Davies is not nearly the death knell some thought it to be.
Story will be traded. There is no way the rockies risk making a qualifying offer to him. Story might take it to build value and to hit a market with less competition.
I think he gets traded and if the new team makes him a decent offer, he signs.
OTOH if the Rockies hold on to Story and he accepts a QO then they may get more for him in the offseason as a full year rental or at next year’s trade deadline.
If he accepts a QO, which he won’t, he’d get traded the next day (assuming that the Rox management was awake that day).
LOL
Originally I was pretty down on Correa, especially compared to Story, but their performances this season are going to put Correa ahead both in years and annual value. He’s putting together a very solid season, he’s younger, and has playoff experience. Someone is going to give him close to $250 million, maybe more.
Brewers have $12M team option on Avisail Garcia. Considering how terrible their offense is, it seems like they will want him back as he’s at least been decent.
Marcus Semien is building a strong case as a top 10 free agent.
Kris Bryant… I think sooner or later our Cubs trade this guy. For him, we’re on the “if” train. If the Cubs fold or stumble in June early July he goes. Our Cubs have been known to swoon in June. If they are competitive into July for possible postseason, he stays. Even at that, a KB trade looms in the off season. Also, there is a bit of baggage; injuries and outfield. KB is just not very good in the outfield. The Cubs merely stick him in there to rest him from work at the hot corner. Not necessarily to show his defensive versatility. That being said, I hope he stays.
@CUBSDYNASTY – KB is a free agent at end of the year so no ” KB trade looms in the off season” But I’m with you on hoping he stays.
Pretty surprised that Marte isn’t farther up. at 32 he hasn’t lost his touch. Still great defense, still great speed, still a threat with the bat. Though i’d still put him at LF that’s where he shines.
he’s a 5 tool, 3-5 f WAR player
The only things hold him back is he missed sometime this season and he is an outfielder. Decent outfielders and generally easier to find decent outfielders.
A 4year 90M guaranteed would be more than reasonable with what might be a lower contract value off season. 100m wouldn’t be much of a stretch unless he bombs out or injured a good portion of the rest of this season.
This has the makings of one of the most overrated FA seasons in history.
Seager has missed a lot of time over the years, and isn’t quite a SS. Correa has also missed a ton of time, as has Bryant. Freeman already 31+. Gausman is a career 100 ERA+ pitcher, until this year, with an extensive injury history. Baez has a 80/7 K/W this year.
I kind of like Scherzer & Kershaw, but the length would have to be no more than three years. I’m guessing that we are going to some bad contracts handed out.
Seager hasn’t missed a lot of time over the years but in the years of his TJ and recovery from same, and now with the broken hand. That isn’t going to happen again, and otherwise he’s been an ironman. Whether he’s good enough defensively to stick at SS as he ages is a legitimate question but nobody has the answer to that one yet. As for bad contracts, you never know which ones are good or bad until after the fact.
134 games in 2019.
52 games in 2020 (projects to 140 per 162).
I wouldn’t call that ironman (though I don’t recall what the 2019/2020 injuries were).
This is not specifically a Seager issue for me. One of my concerns over the years, is that teams sign guys to top-tier money, even with an injury history suggesting less than full seasons. Some teams will sign a $20M player to a $20M contract, even though that player will only play 130 games, while my $20M player will play 155.
Seager wasn’t injured at all in 2020. A player who appears in three out of four games is not missing a lot of time, they are getting normal rest and maybe a little extra if the team can afford it, which last year’s Dodgers could. He missed a month the previous season due to a hamstring strain, probably the most common injury in all of baseball. But now that he’s had his hand broken by a pitch no surprise we’re hearing even more “dude can’t stay healthy” talk.
Hardly anybody plays the game this long without an “injury history,” and why they missed playing time matters at least as much as how much of it they missed. Nothing in Seager’s history is evidence of a chronic medical problem. Not anything. If he heals from the broken hand, and no reason to believe he won’t, he’ll get a deal commensurate with his talent.
Three of four games over the course of a season comes to ~122 games. That is definitely NOT a full time workload. You only play 122 games, you’re either being platooned or you were injured. (Unless you’re a catcher). Let’s not lower standards that much, eh?
Tigers.could use a one year contract at 1B. I would still like to see Cron come back. I also think Bryant would be a good fit for LF at Comerica. The Tigers do not yet have a SS for the current rebuild, but don’t see them making the big splash. Even so, I’d be happy with any one but Baez. 3B, 2B, C, CF, LF/RF can be filled from the roster. 2-3 good offensive signings would make them competitive in their division.
I thought Sterling Marte would be in this list or even mentioned. I am quite surprised to be honest because he is still a pretty solid center fielder and may have to move in a year or two to LF. He is still solid all around and would help any contender.
He’s gonna come down to earth, he’s on fire right now, but he’s 32 already so count on quick decline coming soon. He’s already iffy in CF and in a couple years he’s likely gonna be an average hitting left fielder. Nothing to get excited about. Trade for him now? Sure. Count on him being a top player over the next few years? Bad bet.
Should I buy this Etherium and Bitcoin dip?
Oh wait my bad, wrong forum