Next year’s free-agent class is a legitimately star-studded group even when focusing only on true free agents who’ll hit the market due to service time or an expiring contract. But the class has the potential to become even stronger depending on the play of this year’s collection of veterans who have opt-out clauses and player options in their contracts. Their performance over the next five months will determine whether they opt for another trip to the free-agent market or simply stick with the remaining salary guaranteed to them on their existing deals.
We’re about a sixth of the way through the season, so it’s worth taking an early look at how this group is faring…
Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals (can opt out of remaining six years, $179MM): Arenado, who was always a better hitter at Coors Field, is yet another example of the manner in which home/road splits are overstated with regard to Rockies players. The 30-year-old is now playing his home games at Busch Stadium and still raking at a .279/.336/.507 clip with top-notch defense at the hot corner. Arenado has stated that he plans “to be a Cardinal the rest of the way” and said there is a “very, very high” chance that will forgo the opt-out clause in his contract. After the Cardinals tacked a year and $15MM onto the original five years and $164MM he had remaining on the deal, there’s less incentive for him to test the market.
Trevor Bauer, RHP, Dodgers (can opt out of remaining two years, $62MM): While some might balk at the notion of Bauer opting out when he’s guaranteed a whopping $45MM next year on this front-loaded contract, the opt-out wouldn’t really be about 2022 — it’d be about improving upon the total guarantee. Right now, if Bauer were to suffer an injury in 2022, he’d have a $17MM player option for the 2023 season. If he opts out this winter, however, he could aim to negotiate something similar to or greater than his original three-year, $102MM guarantee with the Dodgers. Bauer could still secure a huge salary in year one of a new contract but give himself a greater safety net against injury or decline. He also won’t have a qualifying offer to deal with this time and would be entering what most expect to be a market with more teams willing to spend. With a 2.50 ERA, 34.7 percent strikeout rate and 7.3 percent walk rate, the current NL strikeout leader is enjoying the kind of start that will make him think about it.
Nick Castellanos, OF, Reds (can opt out of remaining two years, $34MM): If Castellanos keeps hitting anywhere near this pace, that opt-out clause will assuredly be exercised. His age-29 season has kicked off with an outstanding .303/.346/.607 slash, and he already has 18 extra-base hits (nine homers, eight doubles, one triple) in just 126 plate appearances. Castellanos fizzled after a similarly electric start in 2020, so we’ll have to see if he maintains — but he’s one of the best hitters on the planet right now.
Charlie Blackmon, OF, Rockies ($21MM player option for 2022; $10MM player option for 2023): The Colorado fan favorite has come to life after a woeful start to the 2020 season. Over his past 13 games, Blackmon is hitting .319/.396/.447 with more walks than strikeouts. That surge still only has his season line up to .222/.328/.343 in 125 plate appearances, though, so Blackmon has plenty of work to do before he’d even consider opting out of a $21MM payday in what will be his age-35 season.
J.D. Martinez, OF/DH, Red Sox ($19.375MM player option for 2022): An ugly 2020 season had many wondering whether Martinez was beginning to decline. It seems safe to stop wondering. The first few weeks of the 2021 season have been some of the finest of JDM’s career; offense around the league is down, but he apparently didn’t get the memo, as he’s destroyed opposing pitchers at a .331/.416/.632 clip. His 10 dingers give him a share of the MLB lead. While there were some conflicting reports on the number of opt-outs in his contract at the time of the deal, MLBTR confirmed this week that Martinez has a $19.375MM player option for the 2022 season on his deal, so he’s controlling his own fate, so to speak. If he keeps hitting like this, why wouldn’t he test the market again (or at least parlay his performance into an extension in Boston)?
Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Brewers ($11MM player option for 2022): The Bradley signing hasn’t panned out for the Brewers just yet. No one should be surprised to hear that Bradley has excellent defensive ratings through his first 260 innings in center field, but he’s hitting a mere .175/.242/.316 in 124 plate appearances. Bradley didn’t sign until a few weeks into Spring Training, and we’ve seen plenty of late signees start slowly in the past, but so far things aren’t going great.
Jurickson Profar, INF/OF, Padres ($6.5MM player option for 2022; $7.5MM player option for 2023): Profar hasn’t been anywhere near the hitter he was in 2020, slashing just .234/.333/.308 through 128 trips to the plate. The investment in Profar was always a risk. He was one of the least-productive hitters in the National League for the first month of the 2020 season and only salvaged his year with a blistering .375/.398/.534 showing in his final 93 plate appearances. That well-timed hot streak rather stunningly earned him a three-year guarantee and multiple opt-out opportunities, and he’ll need some more of that magic if he’s going to consider walking away from the $14MM he’s still owed beyond 2021. Profar is currently on the Covid-related IL for contact-tracing purposes.
Kevin Pillar, OF, Mets ($2.9MM player option for 2022): Pillar entered the season with a sub-.300 OBP for his career, and he’s not doing that mark any favors in 2021. We’re only looking at 66 plate appearances, but his .254/.288/.381 output looks more like his below-average career line than last year’s stronger showing. Pillar found a pretty frosty market for his services even on the heels of last summer’s .288/.336/.462 performance, so if he doesn’t turn things around at the plate, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him pick up the option.
Justin Wilson, LHP, Yankees ($2.3MM player option for 2022; Yankees hold $7.15MM club option/$1.15MM buyout if Wilson declines): Wilson has served up a pair of homers, walked five batters, hit a batter, and yielded a total of six runs in 8 2/3 innings. He also opened the year on the IL due to shoulder soreness, and his average fastball velocity is down at 93.7 mph after sitting at 95.1 mph in each of the past two seasons. A reliever with Wilson’s track record can turn things around in a hurry, but it hasn’t been the start he or the team envisioned. If Wilson exercises his player option, it triggers a 2023 club option valued at $500K over the league minimum, meaning he’d only do so with a particularly poor year on the mound.
Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees ($2.3MM player option for 2022; Yankees hold $7.15M club option/$1.15MM buyout if Gardner declines): The Yankees lifer hasn’t shown much life at the plate in 2021, hitting .190/.284/.238 in 75 turns at the dish. He has just one multi-hit game to his credit so far in 2021 and is being used in his most limited role ever.
Darren O’Day, Yankees, RHP ($1.4MM player option for 2022): The 38-year-old O’Day has been great for the Yankees through nine innings, but he’s currently on the injured list due to a strained rotator cuff in his shoulder. As long as he comes back and demonstrates his health, he should be expected to decline his option in favor of a $700K buyout. He’s only securing himself an additional $700K if he picks the option up — barely more than the current league minimum (which could very well rise in the offseason CBA talks).
Dellin Betances, RHP, Mets ($1-3MM player option depending on number of games pitched): Betances needs to reach 60 games pitched in 2021 for his player option to be valued at $2MM and 70 games for it to check in at $3MM. So far, he’s pitched one. It’s all but certain to be a $1MM player option on the righty, who may still take the deal given how catastrophic the last few years have been. Betances is on the 60-day IL with a shoulder impingement at the moment, and since Opening Day 2019, he’s totaled just 13 2/3 innings due to injuries.
Beyond this group, there’s also a conditional player option in the Mariners’ deal with left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. Seattle has until three days after the World Series wraps up to decide whether it wants to exercise a quartet of one-year, $16.5MM options on Kikuchi — a total of four years and $66MM. All four must be exercised together. If they do not make that sizable investment, Kikuchi then has a one-year, $13MM player option for the 2022 season on which he must decide.
At least based on Kikuchi’s career numbers in MLB, it seems unlikely that the Mariners would pick up their end of the deal. He’s compiled a 5.22 ERA through his first 246 1/3 big league innings. That said, Kikuchi saw a major velocity spike in 2020 that he’s actually improved upon again in 2021. Fielding-independent metrics were much more bullish on him than ERA in 2020 (3.30 FIP, 3.37 xERA, 3.78 xFIP, 4.34 SIERA), and this year’s current 4.30 ERA is respectable. He’s also sporting career-bests in swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate, walk rate and ground-ball rate.
It’s still a long shot that the Mariners will pick up all four years on Kikuchi, who’ll turn 30 in June. However, that may simply set him up for a return to the market. It’s certainly plausible that he pitches well enough to command more than the $13MM salary on his player option but less than the four years and $66MM on the Mariners’ end of the arrangement.
Nolan isn’t going anywhere.
I agree, but I’m not a STL fan
Pretty much what the article said
It would be dumb with the economy like it is and the uncertainty from the pandemic to risk losing guaranteed money like that.
You probably said that about Albert Pujols, didn’t you?
If I’m remembering correctly, Albert wasn’t guaranteed another 179 million, but I could very possibly be wrong lol
i agree that’s a lot of cash to leave on the table at 30, and most of the playoff teams that are there every year don’t really need a 3b. yes i’m a cards fan but for this take i took off my glasses and looked at this objectively.
How is Arenado “yet another example of the manner in which home/road splits are overstated with regard to Rockies players”. In 2019, here were Arenado’s home/road splits:
Home: ..412/.645/1.057
Road: .346/.521/.866
His home split this year in St. Louis is:
Home: .346/.521/..866
Look familiar? He’s EXACTLY the player we thought he was outside of Coors. Not that that’s not a very good hitter, just not at the level that Coors would indicate.
I’ll take your word for it as to 2019, but when the trade was made a lot of people (haters) were hung up on Arenado’s CAREER road OPS of .793. And given his defense, he doesn’t need an OPS over 1.0 to justify that contract.
There’s a gigantic difference between correctly citing the mirage that is Arenado’s Coors Field hitting (far from limited to just him, of course) and hating on him. We’re all capable of seeing him as a terrific and valuable baseball player without trying to excuse the huge benefit his hitting production received from his home ballpark.
This, specifically, is the issue I alluded to. It is overwhelmingly agreed upon — and with good reason — that Coors Field inflates offense. What is rarely referenced in conjunction with that fact is that living/training at altitude also has a tangible, negative impact on the performance of Rockies players on the road.
I will admit that Arenado isn’t the best case study for this, since most people generally agree he is an elite player regardless. That’s not been the case with previous players (Dexter Fowler, for instance), and I frequently see readers suggesting that Trevor Story is largely a product of Coors Field.
Issues like this are why context-neutral metrics like wRC+ are increasingly prevalent when writing about the game.
Completely agree. That was my point. I certainly wouldn’t argue that Arenado isn’t a great player, he’s just not at the offensive level that Coors would indicate. Same as many Rockies stars in the past including CarGo, Helton, Tulo, Walker, Holliday.
I’m curious about that “tangible, negative impact”. Do we have good evidence that former Rockies produce better on the road after leaving Colorado than they did while playing in Coors?
Yes. Pretty much take your pick. DJ LeMahieu, Dexter Fowler, Mike Tauchman, you name it. And there’s more evidence that Coors destroys Rockies’ hitters road numbers. Rockies hitters nearly always lay eggs in the first road game or two following a home stand. The effect is stunning (and for the record, getting worse as the climate in Denver gets drier and hotter). The adjustment from home to road is virtually impossible in the era of hard breaking balls that we’re in.
I don’t have an easy way to get all of the numbers and run them, but I took a look at Fowler. Post-Coors, he had 1 season where his road numbers were significantly better than his road numbers in his best year with the Rockies. That was 2016. Other than that though, his road numbers are similar before he fell off the cliff in 2018. I’m not looking though for individual players, rather if there was a study done with a viable sample size to show that players do perform better on the road post-Coors then while playing in Denver.
Andrew, the
Athletic had
a great story
on this a few
weeks ago…..
Nah. Overplaying this. By far the largest impact is the ballpark effect. At Coors, the ball carries and you need a gargantuan ballpark to compensate for that. Larger ballpark, a lot more space in the outfield. Balls that are routine outs in other ballparks fall in Coors. It’s not just the home runs from thin air. That is by far the largest impact Coors vs away.
Actually the largest impact is on the break of pitches. Less friction in the air causes less break from a pitch. Which in turn has a huge impact on batting statistics.
That’s also Fowler, he hasn’t been a great offensive weapon ever. He has been above average at some points in his career, but never to the level of a Walker, Holiday, or Arenado type of bat
I disagree on including Walker in that group. He was just entering his prime when he moved to Coords field. His last year in Montreal before the move he hit .322/.394/.587, leading the league in doubles (44) in only 103 games. His first year at Coors he hit .306/.381/.607. It took 3 years playing at Coors to beat the numbers of his final year in Montreal. Walker was a beast and would have been a beast wherever he went for his prime. I think hitters get too much credit for their stats in Colorado. Sure the air is thinner so the ball travels a bit further and they hit more hrs but the fact that pitchers lose a lot of movement on their pitches is way more of a factor. You haven’t seen a top free agent pitcher signing in Colorado since Mike Hampton.
He needs to be a very good hitter to justify that contract. Defense isn’t as important at 3B as it is at SS. You need to hit to be an everyday third baseman, let alone justify that contract.
I guess it’d depend on what you mean by very good, but are you referring to his initial contract or the amount of money St. Louis is paying him? I think that changes what he needs to do a pretty fair amount.
Granted, defensive stats are questionable in their value. But if you look at DWAR for example, Arenado hasn’t been a top 5 third basemen defensively since 2017. How much is being the 6th or 7th best defensive third basemen worth?
If you look at fangraphs, they have his Def as 3rd, 2nd, and 1st among qualified 3rd basemen for 2018-2020 respectively and if you look at the period from 2018-2020, he’s second to Matt Chapman, so the value he provides on defense is apparently quite debatable. I don’t think that really matters much to my point, though. Arenado needs to produce about 1 fWAR/yr less for what Stl is paying him vs. what his initial contract would call for. I think that’s a pretty significant difference,
There happen to be a very large number of elite defensive 3rd basemen at the moment.
Which in turn should reduce the value of defense. The more options you have to get good/great defense, the less you should pay for it. It’s all about scarcity.
If you honestly believe that Arenado isn’t even in the top 5 defensive third basemen list, then you do not watch enough baseball.
I think consensus is that he’s more like low 0.800s type OPS versus career high 0.800s he was overall as a Rockie. Yep, it’s all Coors effect. Low 0.800s plus great glove equals a very good player, just not all-star type numbers as a Rockie. This is why I wanted the Dodgers to pass on him. Good player, just not worth the money Colorado gave him, which was just plain stupid and why they’re not a good ball club.. Cardinals worked out a better deal though by making Rockies pay for some of that inflated contract.
i will say this going by the eye test, he is easily top 3 defensive 3b (if not #1) the man makes plays with his glove that often have me saying “how in the f did he make that play”. yes i know the “eye test” isn’t the best measure but when it comes to def. it’s hard to come up with great metrics that acutely displays who great a guy is defensively. take ozzie i.e. he had a lot of “errors” but he only got them because he had the range and ability to just even attempt the play and most of the time that error saved a run.
It seems very much like this was forced into this article even though the facts don’t support it, or the actual point being made was poorly explained.
I was completely confused until I realized you started the splits with OBP and not Batting AVG lol.
Why would his home split in St Louis (a pitcher friendly stadium) and his 2019 road split while with the Rockies (every other stadium he played with) tell us anything? That’s just a random coincidence.
Ok. Except that his 2021 Home splits are significantly better than his 2021 road splits. On the road he’s:
.324/.493/.816
Right. Like virtually all hitters he’s better at home. But be careful, 2021 is still a very short sample size, and he’s also 30 and likely declining a bit from his peak. So a lot of factors come into play.
Small sample size. I’m guessing that over a full season that his home numbers get worse. We’ll see where the OPS ends up after a full season.
They’re overstated because fans always believe Rockies will collapse away from Coors. His OPS+ while with the Rockies his last three full seasons (2017-2019) was 133. It’s 136 as a Cardinal. He didn’t become what his road stats suggested, or that non-Cardinal fans hoped.
I don’t know about collapse but certainly he’ll never duplicate his stats as a Rockie. He posted OPS of 0.932, 0.959, 0.935, 0.962 from 2016 to 2019. You think he sniffs 0.900 OPS as a non-Rockie? Obviously not. Everyone knew that the $260mm over 8 years deal the Rockies gave him was flat out stupid the moment it happened.
as a cards fan it’s unrealistic to think nolan was going to have the same numbers anywhere else that he had in col. or the numbers he had outside of col. tbh i was expecting off. numbers somewhere in the middle between col. home and his awash stats.
Still, his overall OPS+ is higher in St. Louis…..
Andrewlichey……Huh?
Arenado hit .277 on the road in 2019.
Betances is TOAST …
Only Reason he’s still on team is BVW gave him a player option current leadership wanted to Opt out this past off season.
Thanks again Brodie!
As a mets fan I don’t think he’s got much juice left in the tank. However – if he comes back at $1m next year that’s a really low risk move. Even if he sucks again they can cut him loose after a month.
It was a bit of a red flag when his prior team, the Yankees, let him leave without an offer. Part of it was likely luxury tax related, but they seemed to like him and never expressed any interest in keeping him. The former team always knows the medicals and the player better than the new team.
These contracts are just so stupid. The Cardinals gave Andrew Miller a 2 year deal with a vesting option. He was meh ok for most of the 2 years. He got healthy last year after being hurt. We wanted to get some value out of the contract so let him.play last year but it vested the option so now we are stuck with h at 12.5 million this year.
There are offices filled with college educated people who thought this was a good idea. It’s insane. Especially since they treat guys like Ponce and Oviedo like disposable garbage. Ponce makes a start then gets sent down so the team doesn’t have to pay him. Miller gets 12.5 million for doing almost nothing.
Couldn’t someone fix this?
Ponce had more than enough chances to start this year and he sucked. Badly. His efficiency is horrendous and he has a serious walk problem: it’s even worse than Gants, so you know it’s an issue. Oviedo will be a major piece of this rotation next year, but there isn’t room for him barring an injury. There’s no point in putting him in the bullpen until much later in the year with the elite unit they have already, they want him on a starters workload.
i agree i love ponce but he just wasn’t getting it done, maybe some time in memphis will get him on track. you don’t really have the time to work on your game at the mlb level as you do on the farm. the mlb level is about winning and getting to oct. not player development.
For me it’s hard to believe a guy that throws 95% fastballs and who doesn’t have great control of that pitch will be able to have success at the major league level. If your gonna throw almost all fastballs you have to have elite control and movement or it’s probably not going to work, I’m hoping he can prove me wrong though.
I don’t understand why so many otherwise-terrific baseball minds get so offended when the Coors Field effect is pointed out for what it is. It isn’t just a baseball traveling farther, but also a major impact on breaking balls that for the right hitters can transform the approach at the plate, plate discipline, etc. Carlos Gonzalez, for example, was too free-swinging to make the most of his excellent physical tools…except in Coors, From 2009 through 2013 (stopping there as injuries began to build up for him, to try to be fair) CarGo walked in 9.4% of PAs and struck out in 18.6% of them at home, while his respective road rates were 7.5% and 25.0%.
Coors Field Arenado has been established as a 1.000+ OPS guy, while his road version typically would be in the mid-.800s or so. This year in his new environs, Arenado has an .843 OPS, with .866 at home and .816 on the road. How does that point to home/road splits being OVERstated in Colorado? If anything, the numbers further validate exactly what we already know to be true.
Let’s be real here: that home slash line for Arenado is not “raking”. He’s a legit very good hitter with superlative defense, which makes him a star or even fringe superstar baseball player. But at home in Colorado, Arenado was essentially Willie Freakin’ Mays. News flash: Arenado is not the second coming of Willie Mays…and yet that is exactly the extent of the impact of the Colorado effect. Overstated? Simply given the perspective in this article, it seems the effect remains understated.
I get it…Arenado is a very fun player, like many Colorado players before him. We WANT to think the best of players we like. But it’s strange that, in an era of unprecedented understanding of how good a given baseball player is, the bias in support of Rockies players leads so many to be in denial about the Coors effect. Is it because of fantasy baseball, which doesn’t care why a player’s stat line is what it is? I mean, I loved owning Todd Helton back in the day…but that doesn’t mean I was going to wrongly cast him as Ted Williams 2.0.
It’s all just overreactions to overreactions. Arenado, like Holliday before him, won’t replicate his home-Coors numbers over 162 games on any other team. Some people will say that he “isn’t that good” or that he’s overpaid. Holliday totally played up to his contract in St. Louis and I think Arenado will too.
Ah, “overreactions to overreactions”, I like that and I agree! Well put! I remember when that happened with Derek Jeter, who after years of being overrated had so many folks trying to bring perception into alignment with reality that for a short while perception actually overshot the mark and he managed to be underrated. It soon corrected itself again, but he was regarded much more accurately going forward from there.
@baseballpun If he does then you know he’s opting out
holliday is one of the few players that out performed his contract yes he didn’t have col numbers but he still put up good numbers in a more pitcher friendly park.
In the first, cold month of a season when offense is down and he’s moved to more of a pitchers’ park, Arenado’s wRC+ and OPS+ are on par with his best years in Denver, in the 130 range. So far, he’s hitting as well as ever.
Both wRC+ and OPS+ are park adjusted. They take the Coors-factor into account. He’s not producing the same not-adjusted stats as he did in Coors.
That’s exactly my point. You have to adjust for park, offensive environment, etc., which triple-slash stats don’t. I don’t think anyone expected Arenado’s raw numbers to be as good with St. Louis as they were with Colorado.
Ok, then you and I are in complete agreement. Arenado is putting up similar stats, relative to the ballpark he plays in. What’ he’s not doing is putting up stats like he did in Coors, such as in 2019 when he had a .351 batting average at home.
Did anyone really expect for him to perform like that in St. Louis though? As a Cardinals fan I will gladly call other cards fans that expected this delusional because it’s highly unlikely.
You seem confused as to the point that is being made. No one is arguing that Rockies hitters don’t have far better numbers at home than they would have in a neutral environment, which seems to be the strawman you’re arguing against. But luckily, we have these things called park-adjusted statistics, which account for all that. And in fact, Arenado so far is hitting right where he always has, park adjusted. There’s been no surprise and no “Coors effect” at all once you get past the non-park adjusted counting stats.
There is, actually, a Coors effect even in park adjusted numbers, which is what the author of this piece is referencing. But it works the opposite way from what you think. The adjustment from seeing pitches at 5,000 feet and then the next day at sea level destroys Rockies road stats. So overall, you’d expect Rockies hitters, when traded to other teams, to have worse home numbers and better road numbers, and for it all to even out. History has very much borne that out. In Arenado’s case, it was pointed out up-thread, so far his home numbers are down and his road numbers up as expected, but the overall combining the two hasn’t settled where it usually does (a little above the average of his Coors home and road numbers) but instead lower than that. But that’s probably just because he’s played in a disproportinate pitcher-friendly environment so far. Park adjustments cover for that.
I’m not confused. I understand that park-adjusted, Arenado is producing at relatively the same level. However, that’s relative. My original point was that you can’t understate the Coors effect on raw numbers. And Arenado’s depressed raw numbers (vs. Coors) are bearing that out, albeit in a small sample size.
With regard to road numbers being deflated while playing at Coors, I’ve never seen solid statistical evidence of that with a large sample size. It could be true, it might not be. I just personally haven’t seen the data, and until I do, I’m not going to assume that assertation is a fact. If you can point me towards the numbers, I’d be really interested!
But the “Coors effect” hasn’t been measured with raw numbers since the development of advanced metrics, it’s about level of offensive production and if it can be maintained away from elevation. Small sample size, but as of now Arenado is yet another case that provides evidence contrary to the Coors effect theory. Raw numbers dress up offensive production in a misleading way, but it’s easily seen through with better metrics.
I don’t disagree with your point that the Coors effect does effect raw numbers. I just disagree with the point that this matters even a little bit when it comes to offensive production.
This also assumes that you have faith in park-adjusted factor stats. All of these theoretical stat adjustors have flaws. I honestly don’t know how you can fully capture park factors since there are so many variables. These factors are not adjusting Arenado’s home stats enough in my opinion, especially when you compare his home stats to his road stats. But we can see the impact on raw numbers. That is not disputable.
Brilliant, you get it.
The breaking balls being flat at coor’s changes things.
Especially when they play most of their road games against LA, SD, and SF.
The Seattle Mariners hold a 2022 team option for $15 million plus incentives on third baseman Kyle Seager, who since the start of the 2019 season has posted 5.6 fWAR, valued at $44.5 million, in 202 games (including 1.1 fWAR, valued at $9.0 million, in 33 games this year).
Seattle does not have an MLB-ready replacement unless the Mariners want to take a chance on Ty France at the hot corner.
Mathers confirmed they weren’t picking up that option. Trade him to Atlanta, I love Kyle Seager!
IIRC, trading him automatically vests his 2022 option. That could be a problem.
A trade converts the 2022 team option into a player option.
If traded, Kyle Seager, who has a 2021 salary of $18 million, would need to decide whether to exercise the 2022 player option of between $15 million and $20 million (depending on incentives) after posting 5.6 fWAR, valued at $44.5 million, in 202 games since the start of the 2019 season (including 1.1 fWAR, valued at $9.0 million, in 36 games this year).
With those numbers, Seager might not exercise the option. In that case Seager becomes a 2021 rental if traded.
To be precise, disgraced former Mariner executive Kevin Mather said: “Kyle Seager, this is probably his last season as a Mariner.”
lookoutlanding.com/2021/2/21/22294212/mariners-pre…
Mather no longer makes decisions for the Seattle Mariners.
@Mrtwoton. Braves fan here. Why do the Braves want Kyle Seager?
The Red Sox should be in discussions with J.D. Martinez’s representatives about 2-3 year extension of his current contract at his current salary. He is the most professional hitter I have ever seen. His presence has a positive effect on the entire roster.
He does make a huge difference in the lineup.
That said, I would let him opt out, and then hit with the qualifying offer. Teams won’t be keen to sign a 34-year old to a 3-year contract, AND give up a draft pick. If someone overpays, we get a pick. If JD gets, say $40M/2, we can offer the same amount.
JD isn’t opting out
My best guesses…Arenado continues to have a fine year, but he stays a Cardinal for life. Bauer is tricky based on his personality. I don’t mean that as a negative. Most in his position would go back into free agency simply wanting to beat the $62M in total value remaining. Bauer, however, may want to set a record and bank $45M in 2022, remain a Dodger, and then bank on himself remaining healthy and good and re-enter free agency after 2022. 50-50. I almost want to say 60-40 he stays. He doesn’t lack for confidence or ego and this year is enhancing his value. JD Martinez easily trips his player option as we likely will have 15 new teams in the market for a DH, not to mention multiple AL teams wanting a hitter who excelled despite a deadened baseball. Boras, as he usually does, designed the perfect deal that got his client paid and has now set him up for a new payday. Castellanos opts out. Same reasoning as Martinez. Universal DH means heavy bidding for his services. All three Yankees will be free agents. Those contracts are really basically one year deals with the unique opt out structure designed to lower the Yankees luxury tax hit this year. Kikuchi ends up taking the player option. All other players take the player options.
JD Martinez trips his opt out!
As long as MLB continues to look the other way about the spin rate boosting substance issue, Bauer will have no problems staying good barring an injury. If I’m him and they start showing signs of sniffing around that, I’m opting out and signing the best long-term deal I can find.
Bauer wants to win so he’ll probably try to opt out and try to join the mets. The problem is that the Mets love stro and stro hates Bauer so we probably don’t see him as an option.
If he wants to win, why would he opt out with the best on-paper team in the MLB and sign with a significantly worse team? That makes zero sense. If he wanted to be a Met, he would be one already.
The best team on paper is not the dodgers. Horrible bullpen and depth this year.
There will be a lot more people that disagree with you then agree with you if you took a poll. There’s a reason they have had the number one spot in pretty much every power rankings out there up until their recent skid. They are vastly underperforming their ability level (and that very well might have to do with Bauer’s ability to erode team chemistry wherever he goes) but I don’t think many baseball fans expect them to finish with anything but the best record in the NL. You would be a fool to bet against their talent, their spending level, and their ability to make impact trades by the deadline.
And I’m not a Dodgers fan by any means.
Do you have any evidence to support this assertion?
(and that very well might have to do with Bauer’s ability to erode team chemistry wherever he goes)
Off the top of my head, no I don’t have a source to pull out about it. But it’s been talked about quite a bit over the years between sports talk guys, ex teammates, and Bauer himself. You can Google it if you really want to and I’m sure you can find evidence. I mean, it’s all circumstantial as there’s really no way to quantify that, but there’s evidence out there. He’s turned himself into a one man realty show that teams have to figure out how to stay on top of.
@metsfan22 can I buy some off that stuff your smoking because you gotta be high or just a blind homer to think the Mets are the best team in mlb. Don’t get wrong Mets are building something special and they are a good team currently but let’s see if they can win the east or make it to oct, heck I’m not even that delusional thinking my birds are winning the ws this year. I feel good about our team and chance to win but also wouldn’t be shocked if sd, lad, atl, knocks out either
I don’t think the Mets are the best team in baseball. I think there is like 5-7 teams that could make the the argument for that at the end of the year. Yanks and dodgers arent at the top of the pack like other years. The yanks aren’t top 5 anymore in my opinion.
Cardinals and Mets probably will face each other in the NLDS. Tho good luck lol. May the best team win.
We aren’t even 40 games into the year and you already have the NLDS picked out? Yeesh.
If we are playing that game, then I predict the Mets get shutout in the Wild Card this year by the Padres because they can’t muster up any offense and let DeGrom down again.
Blackmon is interesting to me. I don’t see him making anything close to what he’s making elsewhere if he were to opt out but I wonder how much the losing has affected him. He’s been in the game a long time and made a lot of money; I wonder how much the chance at playing for a winner is worth to the guy.
You can’t assume he’d even have a starting job on a winner. From 2018-2021 he has a 115 OPS+ and he’s on the way down.
I would be happy if Castellanos opted out and signed with the Padres. The Pham experiment has not worked out thus far.
With the CBA up in the air and free agency being increasingly unkind to players over 30 i don’t see any of those players opting out as none will likely be able to land deals that will pay as much as they would be walking away from. Add in the uncertainty surrounding the games economics and a very real possibility of a work stoppage and any player opting out would probably be a fool
Teams have wised up and finally realize that you pay free agents for what you expect them to do for you, rather than what they’ve done in the past for someone else.
May be trending in that direction but I don’t think that’s true just yet. There were a lot of FA overpays this past off season after a year when the sport took a major financial hit.
I like kukichi. I think he is severely underrated and have been waiting for him to break out. He’s had to deal w a lot since becoming a mariners losing his parents and the obvious language barrier.
I think he is finnaly starting to show what he’s capable of. Last start nearly had a no no then yesterday held the dodgers down . He’s getting better. I think his confidence was shattered and if he keeps having good games it will go up.
Home/road splits are NOT overstated with regard to Rockies players. They are what they are.
The fact that Arenado is so far having his best ever OPS+ is just coincidence. If he suddenly went on a 6 for 30 stretch with no home runs I would not jump and say it proves home/road splits are understated with regard to Rockies players.