You’ve seen our 2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings, but which contract year players are actually performing the best at this point in the young season? These are the top 2021-22 free agents ranked by FanGraphs WAR. Note: I’m using Baseball-Reference’s excellent Span Finder frequently in this post. For the full list of 2021-22 MLB free agents, click here.
Hitters
- Kris Bryant – 1.8 WAR, 180 wRC+ in 124 PA. As good as Bryant has been, this level of production has plenty of precedent for him. He’s hit more than eight home runs in a 29-game span many times, including 12 in a stretch in 2019. It’s not going to be hard to make a case for a huge free agent contract for the 29-year-old Bryant, who may be traded by the Cubs in July.
- J.D. Martinez – 1.8 WAR, 215 wRC+ in 126 PA. Like Bryant, the odd 2020 season is the only recent blip in Martinez’s career. As Boston’s DH continues to light up Statcast, the question becomes whether he should opt out of the remaining $19.375MM on his contract for 2022, which will represent his age-34 season. The universal DH would help.
- Buster Posey – 1.4 WAR, 218 wRC+ in 78 PA. The last time Posey hit seven home runs in 20 games? Late in the 2014 season, when he finished sixth in the MVP voting. He hit seven home runs in 114 games in his previous season in 2019. Clearly, a year off did the 34-year-old Posey good. A multiyear deal is materializing for the Giants legend.
- Nick Castellanos – 1.4 WAR, 166 wRC+ in 114 PA. Castellanos’ early mashing this year is reminiscent of his brief stint with the Cubs, in which he posted a 154 wRC+ in 225 PA. If he keeps it up, the 29-year-old right fielder might find it easy to opt out of the remaining two years and $34MM left on his contract with the Reds after this season.
- Starling Marte – 1.0 WAR, 151 wRC+ in 70 PA. Things were looking up for Marte until he fractured a rib a couple weeks ago, potentially knocking him out until June. Assuming a healthy return, trade partners will begin knocking on the Marlins’ door at that point.
- Other impending free agents playing well in the early going: Yadier Molina, Nelson Cruz, Chris Taylor, Josh Harrison, and Corey Dickerson.
Pitchers
- Clayton Kershaw – 1.3 WAR, 2.95 ERA in 39 2/3 innings. Even after a clunker Tuesday against the Cubs, Kershaw leads free agent pitchers in WAR. Is there any way he’d leave the Dodgers heading into his age-34 season? Max Scherzer is another elder statesman future Hall of Fame pitcher who is off to an excellent start in his contract year.
- Matt Barnes – 1.0 WAR, 2.12 ERA in 17 innings. Generally known for high walk rates, Barnes has posted an excellent 5.1 BB% so far this year. He’s actually had bouts of strong control before, with similar stretches in 2016 and ’17. He’s also whiffed a phenomenal 49.2% of batters in 2021. Barnes got off to a great start in 2019 as well, punching out half the batters he faced and walking only 6% over his first 16 games. He’d go on to walk more than 15% of batters over the remainder of that season. The point is that Barnes’ start could hardly be better, but these 17 innings do not prove he’s become a completely different pitcher. At any rate, he’s positioned for one of the better contracts for free agent relievers. Mark Melancon, Craig Kimbrel, Kendall Graveman, and Ian Kennedy are also getting it done in the early going.
- Danny Duffy – 1.0 WAR, 0.60 ERA in 30 innings. Duffy’s velocity is the highest it’s been since 2016. His peripherals are strong, though he does owe some of his success to a .247 batting average on balls in play and a 6.1% home run per flyball rate. As you might expect, this has been the best five-start stretch of Duffy’s entire 197-start career. Duffy, 32, once tweeted, “Bury me a Royal” in response to December 2017 trade rumors. So you’d think the Royals will find a way to work out a new deal with him.
- Lance Lynn – 0.9 WAR, 1.82 ERA in 24 2/3 innings. Lynn missed a couple weeks with a trapezius strain, but before that he whiffed 21 batters against zero walks in a pair of starts. Lynn turns 34 next week, but if he remains healthy for the rest of the season he’s setting up for at least a three-year deal.
- Carlos Rodon – 0.9 WAR, 0.72 ERA in 25 innings. Lynn’s rotation-mate with the White Sox has been one of the offseason’s best signings at just $3MM. He tossed a no-hitter against the Indians and has given up only two runs all year. Among those with at least 20 innings, Rodon ranks eighth in baseball with a 37.9 K%. He’d never previously whiffed batters at this rate over any prior four-start stretch. Rodon’s 94.9 mile per hour average velocity is the best of his career, and he won’t turn 29 until December. With a clean bill of health, Rodon could be one of the winter’s most intriguing free agent starting pitchers.
- Kevin Gausman – 0.8 WAR, 2.04 ERA in 39 2/3 innings. Gausman, 30, is underlining the fact that his excellent 2020 season for the Giants was no fluke. In the era of five-inning starts, Gausman ranks fifth in MLB at 6.53 per outing. Like Lynn, he’ll come free of a qualifying offer.
- Anthony DeSclafani – 0.8 WAR, 2.00 ERA in 36 innings. Of the six pitchers who have made starts for the Giants so far this year, five of them will be free agents after the season. Four of them have an ERA of 2.04 or lower. The Giants appear to have another successful reclamation project on their hands in DeSclafani.
- Several other impending free agent starters currently sport a sub-3.00 ERA: Johnny Cueto, J.A. Happ, Alex Wood, Marcus Stroman, Michael Pineda, Trevor Bauer, and Wade Miley.
Mark Canha is right up there with Marte and some of the outfielders. Always Consistent. Only thing hurting his FA value is his age.
Canha ranks in the top 25 of wRC+ since 2018 (mn. 800 PA). Pretty decent hitter with a 132 wRC+. That’s really compareable to Bryce Harper (136) and Paul Goldschmidt (130).
There are more than a couple of intriguing and impacting short term options here for the White Sox to consider as replacements for injured OF’s Eloy Jimenez and/or Luis Robert.
Ian Kennedy is having one of the best seasons of his career in Texas right now. He completely dropped a cutter that he threw 31.8% of the time in 2020, and he replaced it with a 4-seamer that has CRAZY movement, and he throws that pitch at a 80.7% clip now in relation to the 49.8% clip that he threw it in 2020. Nine saves already for him too. He’s been lockdown.
Yay for him and the Rangers
Lol and people thought the Cubs should non-tender Kris Bryant 5 months ago.
Yeah, love all the idiots on here. To be fair, they saw it by analysts and took their word as the lord’s
I think you’re being kind to those fans. I saw quite a few analysts who expected a strong rebound from Bryant as long as he was healthy. 2020 was the outlier in his career and we knew it was injury driven. I think many who were “down” on Bryant weren’t Cubs fans. He was the face of the Cubs, so they were hoping he was done.
What about Tyler Anderson from the pirates. Very impressive for his career numbers.
Anderson has been a really nice pick-up. He’s always been about a league average pitcher when you look at ERA+, ERA- and FIP-. Pretty excited for the trade deadline. I think the Bucs will get a lot of calls, especially on Anderson and Richard Rodriguez who’s on like a 25-inning scoreless streak dating back to 2020.
Ditto. Praying Anderson and Rodriguez both stay solid into July. A low 3 ERA and a lefty would be gold for the Bucs. Rodriguez would be a great pick up for a contender if he stays strong too. Hoping for quality prospects for both. Would love to keep adding to the depth that Cherrington has been acquiring.
This will be fun month by month to check. For ex, does Posey keep it up? I didn’t realize he was having such a revival
Giants hold a $22M club option on Posey for 2022. If he maintains his health and production, that will be a no-brainer for them this winter. Otherwise they can buy him out for just $3M. SF in a good position here.
That’s the interesting part dude. He hasn’t been worth 22M for… 3 years? 4? For a catcher on the other side of 30, it will be interesting to see if he holds up over 140 games
If he turns this into a 2 or 3 year extension, that makes it that much more interesting
Evans would already be talking extension with Posey’s agent, but Zaidi is much more saavy. If he earned it, they’ll exercise the option, but no way does Zaidi offer an extension. ‘18 – ‘20 cannot be ignored. He’s coming off 17 months of rest, so he should be doing this. The daily grind will turn him into the 1981 version of Johnny Bench in short order
BeforeMcCourt:
I’d say you’re just wrong about Posey’s worth over the last 3-4 years. 2019 was the only year he had an OPS+ under 100. And that was because he was recovering from hip surgery. He was far from his MVP caliber performance, but still well worth his salary. As catchers go most aren’t great hitters, and Posey has been an above average MLB hitter every year except 2019.
But the big problem with your statement is the true value of a catcher is what he does playing the position. He is in a small class of elite catchers, and that class gets even smaller when you factor in hitting.
He appears to be healthy this year, which is why he’s putting up really good numbers, He takes care himself, and should be a good gamble on 2-3, or even 4 year extension.
solaris602:
“…‘18 – ‘20 cannot be ignored.”
Despite trying to play through a hip injury that resulted in surgery before the end of the 2018 season, Posey still posted an OPS+ of 108, a WAR of 2.2, and he defended well with a 10 DRS.
2019 was the worst season of his career, recovering from that hip surgery.
He opted out in 2020, so I don’t see how you count that as a negative.
He’s producing now because he’s healthy. He’s the best hitting catcher in all MLB with at least 60 ABs.
Yes, Zaidi is more savvy than Evans, but don’t be surprised if Posey is extended. I don’t think they’ll pick up the option, but instead work out a 2-3 year deal at something less than the $22M.
2017, sure, but the problem with that argument is that it’s still very questionable as to whether Posey’s performances were worth $22M a year in 2018 as well as 2019. Just because most catchers aren’t good hitters has nothing to do with overall value, and it’s not like he’s won a Gold Glove recently, either.
Posey and the Giants more likely meet somewhere in the middle. $3 M is the buyout. $19 M is the difference. So deal for 1 year $10 M or 2 at $20 seems like a starting place.
1 year/$10? Not even close. For perspective, the Royals before the start of this season signed Salvador Perez to a contract extension that will pay him a $20M+ AAV from 2022-2025, past his mid-30s. I expect Posey to stay in SF, but they’re not getting him at a $10M AAV. Catchers get paid. The Mets just signed James McCann, who really is best used as a back-up catcher, to a $10M AAV and $40M total. Posey has been making over $20M a year for years. Why would he accept a 1/10 or 2/20 if he comes off a great year? The Giants at worst will have to pick up the $22M option, and he’d be worth it for one year if he maintains this production. Or, they could try and lower his $22M salary with a new deal, but a 3/54 is probably as low as it’ll go.
lordd99:
Why I agree in principle, Perez does not make for a good comparison with Posey. The general feeling with his player-friendly extension, is the team making up from what has been and extremely team-friendly contract that he’s playing under.
I also think 3/54 might be a bit high, though it’s in the ballpark. It wouldn’t surprise me if that’s what he gets, though I’d think something more like 3/48.
How’s 30 innings of .6 era worth 1 win above replacement. What a joke ! Saber metrics are for hippys and new age philosophers : p
There’s more to fWAR than just ERA. Even then, that’s currenty tied with Joe Musgrove, Walker Buehler, and is essentially on par with Brandon Woodruff, Yu Darvish and Clayton Kershaw. 1+ WAR at this point of the season is really really good and puts him on par with 6 fWAR across an entire season. fWAR is also modeled on fielding independent pitching more than ERA anyway, and Duffy has a 2.60 FIP. Not saying WAR is the be-all-end-all, but it’s not a bad stat either.
I am neither a “hippy” nor a “new age philosopher”. But, I’ve found that WAR is a pretty useful quick & dirty stat.
My assumption is that you don’t understand it, @bot.
Hence the lashing out & insults.
Fangraphs has an excellent encyclopedia of all the new metrics. I learned a lot from going through it.
I actually still refer to it.
Go ahead & check it out.
Now, I do have some specific issues with – for example – WRC+. But I am able to articulate those in an intelligent & well reasoned way. As opposed to name calling which is never a good look.
Go ahead & zip over to fangraphs. It’s never a bad thing to learn something new, uh? For me, I liken it to when I was in college & working summer construction jobs. Things were transitioning from hammers to nail guns. That scared a lot of old school construction guys.
But it was a much better tool.
Boring boring hippy ball, hippy ball.
Haha hippyball gotta love that. Ol Billy Beane and the fat kid.
*hippies
sacball:
Yeah, obviously bot doesn’t care for sabermetrics, nor correct English usage.
Well, basing WAR for pitchers on a predictor stat that’s not good at analyzing what has actually happened like FIP has always been stupid (bWAR for pitchers is much better), but in this case using a predictor actually makes sense, since we’re trying to predict free agent value almost 5 months down the line.
In any case, such an extremely low ERA being worth 1 WAR at this point still sounds pretty close, since it still projects to a Cy Young caliber season across the entire 6 months.
The Red Sox are in a win-win position. If their surprise success holds up a good year by Martinez will be very valuable in the playoffs. If they fall back to ore-season expectations maybe they can get a prospect or two for him.
Cots shows JD’s opt outs as being in both 2019-2020. There are mutual options for 2021 and 2022 seasons it shows, but only regarding foot injuries he may have incurred.
Bryant for sure, especially since he’s already started at 5 different positions in the field. Boras will have fun getting this dude to free agency this winter. I hope the Cubs trade him then try to re-sign him this winter.
I don’t see the Cubs leapfrogging the Brewers or the Cards by late July. They just don’t have the pitching. I expect they’ll deal Bryant before the deadline, but it’s anybody’s guess what Baez would bring in a trade. I don’t see them extending him. They could trade Rizzo and attempt to bring him back in the winter which is what I would do.
Even with a universal DH Martinez would be foolish to opt out of his contract and almost $20 million guaranteed. Free agency is not kind to players over 30 and after the CBA who knows what the financial landscape (or the landscape in general) in MLB will look like
Counter argument, If he thinks he can get 3/45 (or more)with a good year, he may be interested in cashing in on a good 2021, to risk a subpar 2022. 5M less in 2022 may be worth the extra 25M in guaranteed money
Jed Lowrie as per usual in a contract year
Res flag that comment. Caveat emptor !
If his last couple starts weren’t a fluke Carlos Martinez may be a sleeper on this list.
In that case, the Cardinals would just exercise the first of his reasonable option years.
So far, Buster Posey is my favorite MLB story of the year., A Hall of Famer raking as he did in his prime. That totally changes the Giants’ 2021 outlook. A rival fan can be happy about that, right?
As fun as it would be to watch Buster Posey keep hitting at 218 wRC+ pace, we al know that isn’t going to happen. But a ~130 wRC+ isn’t impossible. If he can hit around there, do the Giants pick up that option?
He’s a legacy player, and honestly, like so many other people, I wrote him off as done. He has looked great this season, but at his age, and as a catcher, I would be shocked if he sustained this production all season without an injury or decline. If he manages to do that, then yes, Giants pick that option up. More likely, they buy it out and offer him another 2-3 year incentive-laden deal.
The probability of a universal DH in 2022 makes it more likely that the Giants pick up his option. Timing is everything.
Interest in keeping Posey is helped by the fact that Bart hasn’t been impressive
If Bart had a great 2020, there’s a chance he isn’t with the Giants in 2021
a $22 million DH only (assuming that Bart is somehow magically ready) is Bobby Evans territory of investment, not Farhan’s
Even if Bart is ready and the DH comes to the NL next year, why would Posey only play DH? He’d be perfectly capable of catching on Bart’s off-days, and the Giants wouldn’t even need to waste a roster spot on a weak hitting backup catcher. They could even give Posey a few starts at 1B.
I think there’s no way the Giants pick up Posey’s option, no matter how well he plays the rest of the year. But I totally expect the Giants to buy out the contract and extend Posey for 2, 3, or even 4 years, at something reasonable, but less than the $22M he’s been making.
You could say the same thing about Yadier Molina.
Why isn’t there a poll? It’s Bryant.
It would be an interesting throwback to see Posey and Molina as 2 of the (presumably) 3 catchers on the NL All-Star Team this year.