The Indians have made extension offers to ace Shane Bieber during each of the past two Spring Trainings, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link). Terms of the respective offers are unknown. Bieber, a client of Rosenhaus Sports Representation, is under team control via arbitration through 2024.
It’s wholly unsurprising Cleveland would like to keep Bieber long-term. The 25-year-old has cemented himself as one of the sport’s top pitchers in recent seasons. After impressing with 214 1/3 innings of 3.28 ERA/3.36 SIERA ball in 2019, Bieber has taken his game to another level over the last two years. He was a unanimous selection as the AL Cy Young award winner in 2020 after dominating hitters to the tune of a 1.63 ERA with an MLB-best 122 strikeouts in 77 1/3 innings.
Bieber hasn’t continued to pitch at that superhuman level this year, but he’s still been one of the game’s best arms. Over his first eight starts, the right-hander has worked to a 2.95 ERA, and he again leads MLB in strikeouts (85). Bieber has thrown a league-leading 132 1/3 frames over the past two seasons. In that time, he also ranks among the league’s top three pitchers (minimum 50 combined innings) in strikeout rate (39.3%), strikeout minus walk rate (31.9 percentage points), SIERA (2.58) and swinging strike rate (17.4%).
Given that continued level of dominance, it stands to reason the Cleveland front office will reengage with Bieber’s camp next winter. In March, Bieber expressed openness to a potential long-term deal but suggested he wasn’t much interested in discussing an extension during the regular season. He’s presently slated for his first of three trips through arbitration next offseason.
There haven’t been many extensions for starting pitchers with three-plus years of service time (which Bieber is set to reach before next offseason) in recent years. Phillies ace Aaron Nola and Cardinals righty Carlos Martínez are the only starters in that service class to sign long-term extensions over the past half-decade. Nola’s 2019 deal guaranteed the righty $45MM over four seasons with a fifth-year club option. Martínez signed a loftier five-year, $51MM guarantee but surrendered an extra potential free agent season via a second club option. Bieber has been more dominant during the past two seasons than either Nola or Martínez were at the time of their respective deals. If he finishes this season just as strong, he could justifiably set an asking price a fair bit loftier than those figures.
The Indians, of course, have taken plenty of criticism for their lack of spending. Cleveland’s $49.6MM payroll this season is the league’s second-lowest, in the estimation of Cot’s Baseball Contracts. However, the Indians have rather aggressively pursued early-career extensions for some of their star players in recent years. They also don’t have a single guaranteed contract on the books for 2022 and beyond, giving them plenty of long-term flexibility.
Hey Bieber, the Giants are starting to turn a corner and be competitive. Why not sign with them out of FA?
He not a free agent until after 2024.
Man. Carlos Martinez actually got paid MORE than Aaron Nola. That was a mistake. I know some Cardinal fans that are regretting that deal right now.
Almost no cardinal extension works out. Yet there they are in the mix every season
Martinez gave up 4 potential FA years where Nola only gave up 2, that’s why it looks Nola got less. If Nola wanted to sign the same length he would have gotten a larger deal than Martinez. Nola will end up at 5/56.75 and Martinez at 5/51 not counting COVID reduced salaries.
I know that but the Giants are going to have several prospects up by the time he’s ready to hop on so they will continue to get better from here.
They must be low-balling him. If CLE wants to extend him it will need to be a big boy contract.
Yeah I agree, it would have been smart to get him locked up at the beginning of his career since he didn’t have a huge signing bonus to fall back on. But since that didn’t happen and he’s now one of the best starters on the planet, it’s gonna have to be expensive to get something done. If they wait any longer than this upcoming offseason, it’s probably gonna take a nine figure extension just to buy one free agent year.
He and Jose are the only two guys I’d throw big boy contracts at. They both need to be in Cleveland for years to come. We can make excuses for the front office as much as we want (and granted, they’re usually right) but at some point this team needs to stop kicking the can down the road and put down some money now.
Yes, they’ve churned out a ton of good young pitchers so they might think they can replace Bieber with someone way cheaper. But there’s only one Shane Bieber, and at some point that pipeline will run dry. They’re the best team in the game at developing pitching, but they can’t sit back and hope it keeps happening like they’ve done by trading more starting pitchers.
Why are they so good at developing pitching? Scouting director? Pitching coach?
Also, Jose’s body looks to me like one that may not age well. He’s a little on the chubby side to me.
Finally, it’s not the front office to blame. Their President & GM are solid. Their owner won’t spend money. Not fair to put that on the front office IMO.
Of course they’re lowballing him, that how negotiations begin. And given how contracts are going I’d be very shocked to see him agree to anything. Until MLB implements an actual salary cap these teams are just feeders for the guys with the bigger bankrolls and/or whoever has some freed up $$ when he hits the open market.
Yup, it’s exactly what it is. They’re trying to lowball him.
He’s going to get paid either way, but I’d think he’d be better served waiting it out. His pitching style and form suggests less strain and chance of injury as opposed to others. His motion seems relaxed and somewhat effortless, yet one of the most effective pitchers out there. Even in arb he’ll get some decent payouts before hitting the market.
He SHOULD bet on himself. He’s top 5 in the majors and been so for a couple years. Unless CLE offers $25M AAV, I’m passing.
25 won’t do it. If he continues his dominance he will easily surpass Cole’s AAV and he will be much younger when he get to free agency.
He won’t be younger at all actually, let along “much younger”. Cole was 29y3m when he signed his FA contract.
Bieber will be 29y6m when he reaches FA after the 2024 season.
Hopefully he starts to turn it on soon if he wants $25+ a season
You know who had an effortless 100? Dustin May
Perceived effort from you really doesn’t mean much
Except he doesn’t throw 100 MPH and throws the FB 37% of the time. His average for FBs is 94 and tops out at 96. He has 5 pitches that he throws.
I really hope they can keep him long-term. I think something in the neighborhood of 4 years and $70 million ($40 million for his three arbitration seasons and then a free agent year at $30 million) with a club option or two would be fine, but the longer it takes to get a deal done, the more expensive it’ll get.
At this point, there isn’t too much reason for him to take a discount since he’s about to start getting paid.
The discount comes in the form of the guarantee. If he’s looking at $70 million the next 4 years what is it worth to have $50 million of it guaranteed? What if he pops a UCL before he’s a free agent? The risk(s) are worth real $’s. I’m sure (even though it’s early in both deals) Jimenez and Roberts are looking favorably on their deals right now. They are protected in the short term and long term if their careers are hampered by these or potential other injuries.
This seems reasonable to me. I’ve been thinking AAV in the 16-18M range gets it done.
What’s sad is that this dude still manages to get slept on in the “best pitchers” conversation. Cole and Degrom can be in-front of him, yes, but he’s the clear and obvious 3. It’s not Scherzer or Kershaw as some would like to say, it’s Bieber, and it will always be Bieber.
Well, won’t always be. Kershaw was a clear and obvious #1 not so long ago…
Always was hyperbole, but yes, I understand that.
Not long ago he was a playoff choker too.
The real slept on guy missing from your list is Ryu
He’s good but not as rightfully slept on. Bieber has been beyond elite since debuting and doesn’t get enough appreciation.
Kershaw has 10 more years in the majors compared to Bieber and still has only 1 season with an ERA over 3.00 EVER.. at 3.03. Bieber already has 2 such seasons
The disrespect Kershaw gets on these boards is atrocious. Kershaw’s career is better than anyone you mentioned above. Sorry to rain on your parade
My mistake. My comment comes off weird because I didn’t say best *current* pitchers. Kershaw is the most accomplished pitcher in baseball right now, no doubt.
What’s funny, run prevention wise, Bieber has only been truly elite in 2020 against the central, where so many fantastic years are disregarded, and thru 1/5 of 2021. That’s really not a huge sample
He showed potential dominance in 19 with the Ks sure. But it’s just funny how his great 2020 is 100% accepted as a legitimate breakout, not him dominating mediocre central teams…
He’s clearly more dominating at this respective point in their career compared to CK. But he’s not really talked about in those lists because he hasn’t dominated a full 162. Let alone 3-4-5 162s. He doesn’t deserve to be there yet imo
And for one game, it’s not unreasonable to trust CK over Bieber. Remember Bieber’s only playoff start ever? 7 runs in less than 5?
So we’ll point on the AL Central, but leave out the fact that he’s not pitching to other pitchers, ok. I wonder how much better his numbers would be.
Kerahaw?! That hack. He had a season with an era over three. No, the current best pitcher pitching today is easily Michael Pinetar Pineda, JA Happ, or Matt The kid Shoemaker
Last year, while kershaw had to deal with the DH, he had a 2.16 ERA, his lowest since 2016. I get your point, but again, Bieber’s true dominance came against the AL and NL central
Since CK won his last Cy Young in 2014, he has thrown 999 innings of 2.38 ball. So since his last CYA, CK has a lower ERA than Bieber has for his career, and it’s about 2x as long. Show some respect
Bauer is deserving in that convo today. Degrom, and his inability to stay on the field, might be 4th on that list due to durability
Walker Buehler?
A payroll under $50MM for a franchise valued at 1.2 BILLION dollars is a pretty fair argument for a salary floor…
I’ve said that for years, MLB needs a true salary cap but the floor is just as important as the ceiling. There’s no reason why every other sport can do it but baseball can’t figure it out. The well run franchises would still be as competitive because of how they’re operated.
Comparing A franchise value to payroll is an apples to oranges comparison. Making an organization spend millions not in the plans is a terrible business model and it’ll never happen
Thanks, my exact point was that franchise value and payroll is an apples to oranges comparison. But the argument is always the team is worth $1billion+ why can’t they pump money into payroll? Easy, the attendance and revenue is lower, so you can’t keep losing money year after year and then get mad if/when the ownership sells and walks away with 4x what they paid for the franchise. It’s like coming into a mansion and you can’t pay the upkeep and taxes on it, people will say “but you own a $5 mil home you should be able to afford that easily”…the house is only worth something when you sell it and the value does nothing to help you keep it afloat day to day.
Play it out, Shane.
He’ll make plenty through arbitration and then he can take his act on the road and get market rate.
Injuries have derailed a lot of stars. Would you take something somewhat team friendlyish just to have guarantees?
Francona has a track record for wearing out pitchers. Kluber, for example, was pushed hard- especially in 2016. This year, Bieber has thrown over 110 pitches on multiple occasions. They are getting every ounce outbid him right now. I hope hengyang stay healthy for his family’s sake.
Because they know he’s gone as soon as possible. Also, (and this is coming from a Giants fan who doesn’t pay attention to Cleveland) he, to the best of my knowledge, is one of their two good starters. By good, I mean a sub-3.00 ERA
@ debubba;
Oh please…..
The guy threw 10 extra pitches for a few games. Gee, it’s a wonder he can still lift his arm.
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@ PutPeteRoseInTheHall;
The Indians top 3 starters (Bieber, Civale, Pleasac), are as good as any in MLB. Their #4/5 are young guys being brought along (McKenzie, Hentages) and #6 (Allen) was sent down to AAA to get back in rhythm – at least 2 of those young 3 will be solid MLB pitchers for years.
Their 2 back-end relievers are lights out – Clase & Karinchak (a ridiculous 86 K’s in 47.1 inning’s in 2020-21) and their set-up guys are solid – Wittgren, Shaw, Maton, Quantrill and you’ll understand why the team is a contender with one great offensive player (Rameriz) and a group of guys Francona juggles better than the Rays do theirs.
Like the Brewers, the Indians are loaded with pitching – but playing in a small market and not generating a lot of revenue, the only time people hear about the Indians nationally is when one of their guys has to be traded to a large market team because they can no longer afford to pay him.
Have been watching a number of their games lately. A fun team to see play. If Tito can square away the young guys from doing dumb things on the field by the end of the year – they can win the AL Central and be a surprise in the playoffs as pitching wins in short series.
10 pitches a game equals to 300 extra pitches in a full 30 start season. If it’s 15 per game, it jumps to 450.
That’s 450 extra chances he blows his elbow out. So at the high of the spectrum, by the end of 2021, that extrapolates to about 1500 extra pitches during his first 4 seasons, accounting for the short 2020. That is a lot for a guy in his early 20s
Clev has a history of having their young guys carry heavy workloads at a young age, and then trade them or let them walk. It’s not false to say they’re following the same pattern with Bieber
I watch them every day but I wouldn’t call it fun. they can’t effing hit. A lot of outs in that lineup. The pitching is solid but they can’t afford to pay for a major league batting order. They can’t compete with the White Sox over 162 games with Bauers, Naylor, Luplow, Gimenez and Yu Chang on the roster. Bringing up Mercado or Zimmer won’t help. They can’t spend either. Tito is somehow holding it all together.
Fantastic pitching is much more likely to keep you in the running than a great offense but questionable pitching
Cleveland knows they can do basically the bare minimum and with their pitching, have a decent shot at the WC. That’s all they’re trying for
Slow down with your extrapolating, he’s went from 98 to 103 and 107 pitches per game. Somehow guys years ago would go well over 100 pitches and not think twice, but specialization in relief caused the starters to not go as long as well as more $ invested in their arms and all of a sudden 100 is this magic number. I’d guess more guys injure their arms earlier before being lose, once you get later in the game the arm is stretched out and pitch 107 is no worse on the arm than pitch 7 was; it’s more about running through the lineup yet again. Anyway, guys like Scherzer and Bauer throw as many or more pitches/game some years and teams would still open up the checkbook.
Polish, I did the math to prove how “only 10 more pitches per start” can severely add up over a season and over a start of a young career
I’m Not actually saying he’s thrown exactly that many more pitches compared to his counter parts
Dolan is losing money, guys. He can’t afford it.
Actually he probably is, but people can’t differentiate day to day operations from valuation. Just because the team is worth more doesn’t mean they’re not hemorrhaging money daily which limits spending that can be pumped back into the franchise.
He’ll be making 20+ in second arbitration year. Indians can afford that, but eventually they are gonna have to listen to offers on one of the best 3/4 pitchers in the game
I highly doubt he makes 20M+ in 2nd year. No player has ever sniffed that.
There’s no reason for The Biebs to sign an early offer instead of waiting for free agency. He’s earned about $2.1 million since being drafted five years ago and will be paid handsomely in his arbitration seasons, probably in the neighborhood of $40M to $50M until 2024.
Assuming Biebs stays healthy and keeps his performance level, he should command $25M to $30M per season over five to six years as a FA. That would be up to another $180M in the bank before taxes.
Hence, unless Cleveland’s offer is somewhere in the neighborhood of 10y/$200M, which it certainly ain’t, Biebs would be foolish to even grant it a glimpse.