The Mariners added some recognizable veterans to a roster that will soon see some of baseball’s top prospects surface in the Majors. The “reimagining” phase appears to be nearing its conclusion.
Major League Signings
- James Paxton, LHP: One year, $8.5MM
- Ken Giles, RHP: Two years, $7MM
- Chris Flexen, RHP: Two years, $4.75MM
- Kendall Graveman, RHP: One year, $1.25MM
- Keynan Middleton, RHP: One year, $800K
- Total spend: $22.3MM
Trades and Claims
- Acquired RHP Rafael Montero from the Rangers in exchange for RHP Jose Corniell and a PTBNL
- Claimed RHP Domingo Tapia off waivers from the Red Sox
- Claimed RHP Robert Dugger off waivers from the Marlins (later outrighted to Triple-A after clearing waivers)
- Selected RHP Will Vest from the Tigers in the Rule 5 Draft
Extensions
- None
Notable Minor League Signings
- Drew Steckenrider (made roster), Matt Magill, Roenis Elias (since released), Paul Sewald, JT Chargois, Gerson Bautista (released), Taylor Guerrieri, Jimmy Yacabonis, Brady Lail, Sam Travis, Jack Reinheimer
Notable Losses
- Dee Strange-Gordon, Yoshihisa Hirano, Tim Lopes, Mallex Smith, Phil Ervin, Carl Edwards Jr., Bryan Shaw, Walker Lockett, Taylor Guilbeau, Art Warren, Joe Hudson
Entering the offseason, the Mariners looked as though they had the potential to spend more than some rival clubs. Seattle carried a 2021 payroll projection of just over $70MM — a number that would dip all the way to $7.15MM in 2022. With many clubs around the league not expected to spend at all, an opportunistic approach seemed plausible.
As it turned out, the Mariners front office was also reportedly limited in its dealings by an ownership group reeling from last year’s lost revenues. The Mariners still spent some money, but the majority of their investments were on affordable one-year pacts. Exceptions included affordable two-year deals for KBO returnee Chris Flexen and Tommy John rehabber Ken Giles.
Flexen, guaranteed a total of $4.75MM on the deal, tossed 116 1/3 frames of 3.01 ERA/2.74 FIP ball in South Korea last year, notching impressive strikeout and walk percentages (28.1 and 6.4, respectively). Those 116 1/3 innings are 30 more than any big league pitcher threw in 2020’s shortened slate of games, so his workload will be less of a concern than that of the Mariners’ other starters. Giles, meanwhile, won’t pitch in 2021 after undergoing Tommy John surgery last summer, but he’ll be expected to hold down a key bullpen role in 2022.
The most notable addition to the pitching staff, of course, was James Paxton, who returns to Seattle after spending two years in the Bronx. Paxton will slot into the rotation alongside the pitcher he was traded for, lefty Justus Sheffield. The 32-year-old Paxton missed most of the 2020 season as he battled injuries — February back surgery and an August forearm strain. He pitched with greatly diminished velocity in 2020, but Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto said after signing Paxton that “Big Maple” had recovered the lost zip on his heater by the time he threw for scouts over the winter.
A healthy Paxton is the Mariners’ best starter — probably one of the best 20 or so starters in the game. At a year and $8.5MM, he’s an affordable and sensible gamble for Seattle even after last year’s injuries. It seems that a return to the Mariners was always something of a best-case scenario for Paxton; he was reported at multiple points to be seeking more than the $11MM that fellow injured ace Corey Kluber received from the Yankees in free agency, but Dipoto said after the contract was completed that Paxton gave his club a “some form of hometown discount,” adding that he “wanted to be a Mariner” again.
With Paxton and Flexen now penciled in as part of what’s expected to again be a six-man rotation, the Mariners have a fairly interesting starting staff. Marco Gonzales has been nothing but solid over the past three seasons, pitching to a combined 3.85 ERA in 74 starts. Sheffield was knocked around early in 2020, but his final eight starts looked an awful lot like the solid starter he’s long been projected to become: 47 1/3 innings, 3.58 ERA/3.17 FIP, 50.6 percent grounder rate, 20.7 strikeout rate, 8.6 walk rate.
The 2021 season will be a critical one for 29-year-old southpaw Yusei Kikuchi, whose contract allows the Mariners to extend him for four years and $66MM at season’s end. If the team declines to do so, he can exercise a $13MM player option. Based on Kikuchi’s track record, it’s unlikely that the M’s would pick up their end of that deal, but the lefty showed some interesting signs in 2020. His average fastball spiked from 92.9 mph in 2019 to 95.2 mph in 2020, while his strikeout and ground-ball rates soared by eight percent apiece. Kikuchi’s walk rate rose from 6.9 percent to 10.3 percent, which is a notable red flag, but if he can get back to his previous control while maintaining some of the other positive gains, he could yet be a quality big league starter.
Right-hander Justin Dunn, meanwhile, outlasted Nick Margevicius and Ljay Newsome in the spring battle for the sixth starter’s role. While he’s yet to find much big league success, Dunn was a top 100 prospect when the Mariners acquired him from the Mets, and he’s still just 25 years old. He could very well just be keeping a spot warm for top prospect Logan Gilbert, but Dunn has at least one more chance to show he can stick in the rotation.
As is the case in the rotation, there are some new faces in the bullpen after Dipoto and his staff brought in a trio of inexpensive relievers. Former Mets top prospect Rafael Montero had a resurgence in the Rangers bullpen over the past two seasons, pitching to a 3.09 ERA with a strong 28.6 percent strikeout rate and a terrific 5.9 percent walk rate.
Montero went 8-for-8 in save attempts with Texas last year and will close games for the Mariners in 2021 following a trade that sent righty Jose Corniell to the Rangers. Corniell received the largest bonus given out by the Mariners in the 2019-20 international free agent class ($630K), but he’s yet to play a pro game. The Mariners will also send a PTBNL to Texas to complete this deal at some point in the coming months, but for two years of control over Montero, the price tag seems reasonable for now. Corniell currently ranks as the Rangers’ No. 30 prospect at Baseball America.
Seattle also re-signed righty Kendall Graveman to a one-year deal and will put him straight into the bullpen role in which he thrived last year. The Mariners initially tried out the former A’s starter in their rotation before he went down to an injury. When he returned in September, Graveman went to the ’pen and saw his average sinker velocity jump from a career 93.2 mph to 96.3 mph. He didn’t miss many bats but posted a sizable 55.2 percent grounder rate with strong control. For a $1.25MM base salary with incentives to take the deal to $3.5MM, the Mariners will see if he can sustain that output.
Hard-throwing righty Keynan Middleton gives the Mariners another former division rival to count among its setup corps. The Angels non-tendered Middleton despite having three years of control remaining and an arbitration projection around $1MM. The 27-year-old missed most of 2018-19 due to Tommy John surgery early in the ’18 campaign, but when he was healthy he looked like a solid late-inning option in Anaheim. From 2017-18, he logged a 3.43 ERA and 3.73 SIERA while punching out a quarter of his opponents. There was some improvement needed, but for a young pitcher with a heater that averaged 97 mph, the results were encouraging. He was cut loose despite regaining that velocity in 2020, and the Mariners will now hope to benefit.
There won’t be many new faces in the Seattle batting order. The Mariners didn’t add any position players over the winter, due in no small part to the growing number of prospects they’re seeing rise to the big league ranks. Evan White struggled to make contact in 2020, but when he did he was among the league leaders in exit velocity. Strikeouts were never a major issue for him in the minors, either, and he won a Gold Glove at first base in his rookie season, so expect to see plenty more of him.
Kyle Seager returns across the diamond, and the Mariners had a second Gold Glover at short in J.P. Crawford, so he’s locked in there. Dylan Moore gets the first look at second base after a breakout 2020, but Shed Long Jr. will also be seeking a rebound after playing through a stress reaction in his tibia last year. Behind the plate, the Mariners will lean on Tom Murphy and Luis Torrens, both of whom have shown they can provide solid offense. Catching prospect Cal Raleigh will continue to rise through the upper minors as well. Ty France, acquired from the Padres alongside Torrens, figures to see plenty of work at DH and also fill around the diamond. He’s done nothing but rake in Triple-A, the big leagues, and Spring Training. The Mariners are aiming to get him 500-plus plate appearances between DH and spelling White, Seager and Moore.
Things get more interesting in the outfield. In right field, the Mariners are set to welcome back Mitch Haniger after an arduous two years of rehabbing a chain reaction of fluke injuries that began with a ruptured testicle after a woefully placed foul ball. Now 30 years old, the 2018 All-Star will look to round back into form after missing the past season and a half. Reigning AL Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis opened the year on the IL, clearing a path for top prospect Taylor Trammell to make his debut in center. Lewis isn’t expected to be out long, so the Mariners could soon see an alignment of Trammell, Lewis and Haniger.
Of course, all eyes are on uber-prospect Jarred Kelenic, who was the subject of numerous headlines after now-former Mariners CEO Kevin Mather blatantly indicated the organization planned to hold him in the minors until late April. The words “service time” weren’t directly used, but the implication was clear, particularly given that Mather also revealed in that Q&A with his rotary club members that Kelenic rejected a contract extension prior to the 2020 season.
Kelenic and agent Brodie Scoffield told USA Today’s Bob Nightengale in the aftermath of the interview that the organization made clear to him at multiple points that he would’ve made his MLB debut in 2020 had he signed the extension offer — a six-year pact with a trio of club options to buy out three free-agent seasons. While Scoffield told MLBTR at the time that Kelenic is still open to extension offers, a spotlight has been shined on the situation. Kelenic missed time this spring with a minor knee sprain, which made it easier for the Mariners to send him down to begin the year. But if he’s called up in late April just as Mather said he would be, the organization will have a hard time claiming that it was a strictly development-driven decision to send him out in the first place. Kelenic went 6-for-20 with two doubles, two homers, four walks and just one strikeout in 25 spring plate appearances.
To be clear, the majority of big league clubs play service time games. It’s not that the Mariners’ plan was necessarily nefarious or previously unheard of — far from it — but such matters simply aren’t discussed publicly, as teams don’t want to give players and their agents any fuel for possible grievance filings. Mather’s indication that late-April promotions were likely not only for Kelenic but the aforementioned Gilbert broke the norm of making such manipulation a poorly kept but still-unspoken “secret.”
Had Mather’s service-time comments been the only questionable moments in his Q&A, the fallout probably wouldn’t have been so great. But he also made disparaging comments about foreign players’ English skills (or lack thereof), lamented having to pay translators and rattled off various negative comments about established players on the big league roster. It wasn’t much of a surprise when Mather resigned from his post in the days after the interview, and chairman John Stanton revealed later that Mather also gave up the minority stake in the club he received when initially being elevated to CEO.
Turning back to the on-field product, the Mariners very much have the look of a team that is on the rise. It’s a matter of “when,” not “if” Kelenic makes his Major League debut in 2021. Fellow outfield wunderkind Julio Rodriguez isn’t too far behind him, and we’re already getting our first look at Trammell. Gilbert is the first in a growing line of high-end pitching prospects funneling through the system, with recent first-rounders George Kirby and Emerson Hancock both on the horizon.
Each of those prospects could be in the big leagues before midseason 2022, and as previously noted, the Mariners’ long-term payroll is squeaky clean. They have just $15.45MM in guaranteed salary committed in 2022 (not including the $3.75MM they owe the Mets as part of the Robinson Cano deal).
Considering the Mariners had a franchise-record $158MM payroll in 2018 and averaged a hefty $150.25MM payroll from 2016-19, a spending spree during next year’s free agent mega-class seems eminently plausible. Contending in 2021 is long shot but not impossible with enough breaks from their young big leaguers. However, even if the Mariners extend a two-decade playoff drought this season, the future in Seattle is brighter than it’s been in quite some time.
How would you grade the Mariners’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)
Dipoto is absolutely following the plan. He likely would’ve spent on one top 20 player in free agency if he were given the go-ahead by ownership, but deferring to next offseason is not a bad plan. Let the young guys get their footing, then fill holes. For that reason, I think it’s a B+ offseason. No bad contracts given out, just smart, high upside signings. And a blank checkbook for 2022. Would have been an A if they got a cornerstone player.
Myaccount- you’re right (sort of) Dipoto was indeed given the ca$h for a top FA, they used it on MLBTR’s #22 FA James Paxton. When healthy Paxton is one of the best LHP’s in MLB, he’d be ahead of Stroman at #6 in the FA list. Lucky for us, he’s shown good health so far as witnessed by his 97mph FB and 17 K/outs in 8 1/3 innings over his last 2 Spring starts.
My account- re: a cornerstone player this year: are you talking about Bauer, Realmuto LeMaheiu or Hendriks? Remember you can’t force a player to come to a rebuild.
When you look at the article’s point on FA spending from a healthy 2021 budget its easy to say the Mariners didn’t spend as much money as they perhaps should have. However that point is misleading, that narrative completely ignores some very important points in the overall context: 1) 2021 FA overall spending across both Leagues was significantly lower after every team suffered huge losses last yr. 2) Spending large amounts of your budget on 2021 FA’s then blocking your cheap talented players will stunt their growth and prolong the rebuild even more. 3) If a handful of your top prospects succeed at the ML level you would have less money to extend them if you spend large amounts of money on FA’s in 2021. 4) The plan to supplement the holes in your lineup with FA spending got pushed back one year after the missed Minor League season in 2020. The team has only been rebuilding for 223g in total. 162 in 2019, 60 in 2020 1g in 2021.
So- Is it wise to spend a ton of money on FA’s in 2021 when you haven’t given your prospects a chance to prove themselves? Is it wise just to spend money only because you have plenty of it to spend? In this economy?
There’s plenty of evidence that Dipoto’s FA spending was always going to happen in 2022. He’s been on record saying so and if you take one look at where the Mariners offense might need FA help you’ll see it comes in their INF. If you’re going to take a run at an INF you’d try to get one in the best INF FA class in years- in 2022.
If you are the one person who’s read all the way to this point- I’d give Dipoto and the Mariners an A for their offseason plan. Can’t wait to see who they sign in 22
How many former Mets/Met farmhands are in Seattle these days? And who in their right mind would ever rely on Chris Flexen as a regular starting pitcher?
NMK- who in their right mind gives up on a young SP based off 14 games as a 22 yr old? Who completely ignores the improvements and physical changes he made (over nearly 120 IP last yr.)
Besides 2 years at $4.75 M for a #5SP? There’s almost zero risk there. Its not like its a 10 yr $341Mi contract.
good under the radar moves. B.
scratch that, A+ because they freed us from the scourge of beard-less James Paxton.
Did Cal Raleigh make the MLB club out of spring training ??
Nope. We will see him at some point this year, Im sure.
I’m thinking he’ll be up sooner rather than later.
Flexens gonna be a star. Solid staff and lineup. Welcome back Haniger and Le Grand Maple. Remain calm. All is well
Notable Losses- there’s a typo there. I think you meant to type Notable Wins for that group of players! The best Dee Gordon could do was a Minor League contract for the Reds, a team that’s forced to move Eugenio Suarez from 3rd to SS!
It’s a dream but:
Dipoto gets Corey Seager for 6/210 and the Seager brothers hold down the left side, because Kyle signs a two yeat extension. They get to win a WS together.
Signing Corey and extending Kyle would do wonders for their infield and it might not be a stretch.
Plug Ty France in at 2b, let DMoore be the ultimate utility guy. I like how that sounds.
I don’t think it’s a stretch to suggest they could sign Corey and extend Kyle a year or two. I do think it’s a stretch to say Corey would take 6/210. If he were willing to sign that, I imagine the Dodgers would’ve locked him up by now. If he sustains something close to his 2020 output, he’ll be $300MM+ territory.
He’s a boras guy, so he’s going to get trout type money. And I agree with dipoto, I can’t do that. I mean they have the money too, but they don’t “need” Seager at ss to win. We still have izturis and novlei marte. And jp did just win a gold glove there, but his not a hitter.
No doubt about the value being low. Years as well. Ten seems more likely, regardless of who he signs with.
I still can’t believe mathers said Seager is “Probably Overpaid” and that it’s probably his last year in Seattle. That is just disrespectful.
As long as Gonzales is the “ace” the Mariners are never going anywhere.
He’s a 3, if he’s following a real stud, the real stud better be real.
Question for all,
When is the last time a GM got 3 contracts in his first 6 years despite not winning a thing?
Mediocrity, the franchise calling card.
A #3 is today’s #2. Gonzo’s probably a Top 60 starting pitcher which would make him a #2.
Carbone- You’re having a laugh if you think this Org is planning on getting to the playoffs with Marco as their best SP. He’s a valuable SP and integral to the teams future but I guarantee you when Dipoto visualized a Mariners playoff run he pictured a rotation w a couple of stud SP’s in front of him.
There’s a huge difference between an Ace and a SP who pitches on Opening Day- the Mariners are no different from most MLB teams. Aces are in very short supply. Developing your own frontline starter/Ace/SP1 is as challenging as finding an All-Star Catcher. They don’t come around very often and cost a fortune in FA.
Discussing Marco’s spot in the rotation, whether he’s an SP3 or an SP4 is like getting salty after a loss in a Cactus League game- focusing on minor details that have no consequence while missing the big picture.
Since the start of the 2018 season Seattle lefthander Marco Gonzales ranks 17th among all pitchers in fWAR:
fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&…
That ranking does not suggest a No. 3 starter.
Gonzales may not be overpowering but the lefthander instead evokes a mirror image of Greg Maddux.
*Objects in mirror may not be as close as they appear*
If Gonzales can end up being Jamie Moyer-ish, Mariner fans will lavish him with praise and accolades
Seattle will have a considerable shopping list next offseason if they wish to contend in 2022, unless they’re able to add veterans or MLB-ready players at the deadline.
Lot of young talent coming into the fold, but it’s not enough.
Considering the current position the Mariners are in they had a good offseason. Certain pieces are falling into place and the AL West is vulnerable right now. They should be a team on the rise. The C grade is unjustified.
My ‘C’ grade is because they didn’t get lot better and they didn’t get worse – they maintained a steady course for next year to take off. And you have to factor in the service time comment fiasco when grading their offseason too, which brings down their mark a tick from a ‘B’ IMO.
They maintained a steady course for next year to take off. Precisely. And they made a savvy move signing Giles for that and a decent signing in Paxton.
The comment is an open secret. Nobody should take something like that serious when we already know it to be true. All the more reason they are closer to an A than a C. We should almost be thanking the Mariners for the comments fiasco.
Mighty Mariners tapped that lowly SF Giant rear end last night . Lol
The giants aren’t a bad team. They basically are the nl west giants. Not as many sexy prospects like the ms have but they are a sold team. They just have the dodgers in their division.
The Giants have Kapler and that’s a killer imho.
Kapler and Servais seem to be on similar levels of bad bullpen management.
The Mariners have no leadership, there’s no one to take White under their wing, nothing up the middle. Seager is a lame duck who has never won.
That is the issue, they don’t know how to win and veterans can go a long ways toward helping that.
So, that leaves it to Servais to provide direction, the problem is his lack of knowing when to hold and when to fold with the bullpen.
Dipoto has missed a big opportunity to help this team build some solidiness.
At least he’s getting more paychecks and thats what counts.
I smell a Troll!
They’re going to need to spend big next offseason on pitching. If they do so, watch out. Definitely the sleeper pick to challenge Houston for the division title next season.
Just a correction to: “Mariners will lean on Tom Murphy and Luis Torrens, both of whom hit well in 2020.” Murphy didn’t play last year due to injury.
Ah right — meant to say Murphy hit well in ’19.
Best of luck to Mitch Haniger. Dude deserves a great season.
Hopefully he and Trey Mancini will be ‘duking it out’ for the Comeback Player of the Year award in the month of Sept.
I hope ownership doesn’t stay on the frugal train. I’m a newly minted Mariners fan (moved here in 2020) and I’ve been told that’s a long standing problem but IDK.
I think Nola was a notable loss. We did get a lot of upside in that trade though
He was a savvy hitter at a valuable position but honestly as much as we miss him the return could be immense. I might be getting carried away but I can see this trade being another Adam Jones etc for Bedard type trade except we’re BAL
I mean “Notable losses” might be an overstatement. None of those players really figured into the plan nor did they really ever contribute to the team in a meaningful way. Its not like we lost a major piece in free agency.
Im optimistic on a winning season but im waiting to see offseason spending this year for how serious ownership really is on contention.
The Future looks very Bright for the Mariners and Seattle fans should be excited. They have a lot of young prospects coming up and reigning rookie of the year. They have one of the best farm systems in my opinion and in a year or two might have one of the most exciting outfields in the American League. I see this as a development year for the Mariners and the Royals as both seem to be in a similar boat with young studs coming up in the near future. I gave the M’s a B because they brought in some stopgaps that they could possibly flip at the deadline for more young players. They took a gamble on the upside of Flexen, but if he doesn’t work out they aren’t out of a lot of money and if he figured something out in Korea he could be a backend of the rotation guy for dirt cheap. They added an electric closer in Ken Giles that should come back healthy in 2022 and also added a decent controllable reliever in Montero. I gave the Mariners a B because I think they improved around the margins and added a good starter like Paxton for a really good price. They should also have a boatload of money to spend next year because they have very little commitment in payroll after this year. Mariners fans should be optimistic and excited! The Future looks brighter than it has in a long time for this team.
As a die hard M’s fan, my worry is that Haniger and Paxton will come around the same corner, bonk into each other, and be out indefinitely.
@bpax –
Lol
I hadn’t thought of this possibility but now I fear it.
Great…got my fears going now!
I thought SEA gets an A. They didn’t lose anyone valuable and they revamped the SP staff and some of the RPs. Its a better team than last year if they are healthy.
My wish is that no play ever again has to undergo Mitch Haniger Surgery (aka MHS). I shudder every time I think about it. Haniger is one guy I’m really rooting for in 2021.
Can’t believe Jake Fraley got no love in this article.
Kyle Lewis, Mitch Haniger, Taylor Trammell, Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez, and Jake Fraley. Not everyone can play the outfield. This is a great problem to have!
M’s fan sine birth, 1983 (ouch). I’m on board with Dipoto’s plan. M’s will definitely make the playoffs soon if they stay on this path.