In the comment section on my recent 2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings, there was a lot of debate about the merits of shortstops Carlos Correa and Trevor Story, who seem to clearly fall behind Corey Seager in the upcoming free agent class. Which player will have greater earning power in free agency?
Some points of comparison:
Age on Opening Day 2022
- Correa: 27.54 years
- Story: 29.39 years
- Difference: 1.85 years
Age is a crucial factor in free agent contract length, as teams want to avoid as many decline years as possible. Capturing a player’s age 27 season in free agency is a rare thing. In the cases of Bryce Harper (13 years), Manny Machado (10 years), and Jason Heyward (eight years), teams were actually able to capture age 26. There are not any other recent cases of free agent deals that included age 26 or 27.
Machado signed for ten years and $300MM, while the Mets recently extended Francisco Lindor for ten years and $341MM, albeit with deferred money. The players were paid through age 35 and 37, respectively. A contract running through age 37, as Lindor’s does, is pretty rare. I think teams will be looking to commit to Correa and Story through age 35 or 36, at most. Paying through age 35 would mean a nine-year deal for Correa, though that might be a long shot given his inconsistency and injury history. It’d mean a seven-year deal for Story. Those terms would only be available if the players are considered highly desirable after strong 2021 seasons.
Offense
Rest of 2021 Season ZiPs/Steamer projections in wRC+
- Correa: 125 / 118
- Story: 102 / 103
2019 to present wRC+
- Correa: 126
- Story: 117
2018 to present wRC+
- Correa: 115
- Story: 121
2018 was Story’s best year (128 wRC+) and one of Correa’s worst (101), so whether you include it makes a big difference. But it’s pretty clear that Correa has a higher ceiling, with marks of 136 in 2015, 152 in 2017, and 143 in 2019. As we’ll discuss later, Correa was quite clearly affected after returning from a back injury in 2018, so I think the “2019 to present” numbers are a better reflection of his true ability.
Why use wRC+? It’s park-adjusted, so it neutralizes the fact that Story has played 50.7% of his games in Coors Field. If you cite straight-up numbers with no adjustment, you’d clearly prefer Story. I think any MLB team interested in Story would attempt to neutralize the effects of Coors, though. It is not as simple as looking at Story’s work on the road and assuming that’s how he’d play for a new team in a neutral ballpark. But since 2018, Story does have a huge split: a 136 wRC+ at home, and 105 on the road. In terms of triple slash, Story is at .266/.327/.450 on the road since 2018, and .316/.379/.642 at home.
Story may follow the path of Matt Holliday. From 2005-07, Holliday posted an even more extreme 166 at home and 108 on the road. He was not a 108 wRC+ hitter after leaving Coors, however, putting up an excellent 145 mark from 2008-13, mostly for the Cardinals. Holliday was able to spend all of his 2009 contract year away from Coors, posting a 141 wRC+ for the A’s and Cardinals that likely helped him land the largest contract of the 2009-10 offseason. DJ LeMahieu is another example of a former Rockie who continued to hit well after posting extreme splits.
In the likely event Story is traded this summer, he’ll have a chance to demonstrate his standard 120 wRC+ production in a more neutral environment for a few months. That’s more likely than a Correa trade, and being free of a qualifying offer would be an advantage for Story.
It makes little sense to remove park factors, when Minute Maid Park has suppressed offense (outside of 2019) while Coors Field has inflated it by a minimum of 12% during Story’s career. But for comparison, Correa has hit .276/.352/.483 since 2017 and .258/.334/.453 since 2018. Story stands at .278/.342/.524 since 2017 and .291/.353/.547 since 2018. Story has reached the 35 home run mark twice, while Correa’s career-best is 24.
As for Correa, what about the sign-stealing scandal? According to MLB’s report, the bulk of the Astros’ sign-stealing efforts were in 2017, in which Correa put up a career-best 152 wRC+. He was excellent both at home and on the road, though the scheme is only thought to have occurred at the Astros’ home park. MLB’s report suggested the Astros did not utilize trash-can banging in 2018, when Correa dropped down to 101. That 101 mark may be explained by a back injury, which I’ll get into later. The Astros also weren’t thought to be cheating in 2019, but Correa bounced back to a 143 mark.
Astros fan Tony Adams analyzed home data for the Astros from 2017, and found 140 total trash can bangs for George Springer and 97 for Correa. If potential free agent suitors consider Springer and Correa equally complicit in the sign-stealing, it would bode well for Correa, since the scandal didn’t seem to have much effect on Springer’s market. Ultimately, like Springer, Correa just needs to go out and have a big contract year if he wants to get paid. There’s a solid argument that in a neutral ballpark, he’s a better hitter than Story.
Defense
By measure of UZR/150, Story is at 3.9 since 2018, while Correa sits at -3.5. Story also leads in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS), though that’s a cumulative stat and he played an additional 1,042 innings in the field – 47% more than Correa did. Outs Above Average, which is part of Statcast, is more sophisticated than UZR or DRS, but doesn’t necessarily tell a clear story. Here’s each player’s OAA by year:
- 2016: Story 4 (823 innings), Correa -17 (1355.6 innings)
- 2017: Story 7 (1185.3 innings), Correa -3 (946 innings)
- 2018: Story -5 (1372.6 innings), Correa 17 (959 innings)
- 2019: Story 18 (1257.3 innings), Correa 9 (642.3 innings)
- 2020: Story 2 (491.3 innings), Correa 3 (475 innings)
It would appear that Story’s defense slipped to a below-average level in only one season, 2018, on which OAA and UZR/150 agree. There’s no clear injury in 2018 to explain the lapse, though he miss a few late September games with elbow soreness. Story was able to improve his range and reduce his errors in 2019, and seems to have settled in as an above-average defender.
We’ll talk about durability in the next section, but with Correa we have a player who has tallied 1,000 innings in the field exactly once, in his 2016 sophomore season. UZR suggested he was a bit below average that year, while OAA had him as the game’s worst defensive shortstop.
2018 is particularly odd for Correa, where OAA shows him as the game’s fourth-best defensive shortstop while UZR/150 has him as the fourth-worst. That was a year in which Correa avoided the IL until late June, at which point he missed over a month due to a back injury. He acknowledged that the injury played a role in his plummeting offense, and his OAA was lower after the injury. MLB.com’s Mike Petriello suggested to me that the Astros’ frequent shifting, and UZR’s lack of accounting for that, might account for the difference between the two stats.
Correa suffered another major injury toward the end of May 2019 – a cracked rib that cost him two months – as well as more back pain in late August of that year. Nonetheless, his defense doesn’t seem to have suffered.
Both Story and Correa have been above average defenders since 2019, ranking fourth and ninth respectively in OAA. Story is carried largely by his 2019 season, for which he was voted a Gold Glove finalist for the first time. Though he has dropped off so far this year, Story has often ranked among the top 40 in the game in terms of sprint speed, which is a factor in his defense. I think it’s safe to say that Story is the superior defender. It’s worth noting that Correa has already expressed a willingness to move to third base if needed, while the topic hasn’t really been broached for Story.
Durability
Story was drafted 45th overall by the Rockies out of high school in 2011. As a minor leaguer in 2014, he missed roughly a month due to hairline fracture on his left pinky finger. The Rockies traded longtime shortstop Troy Tulowitzki in July 2015, taking on Jose Reyes in the process. In 2016, Reyes was suspended through May to begin the year under the league’s domestic violence policy, opening the door for Story to make the team out of camp. After becoming the Rockies’ starter in 2016, Story’s season ended on July 30th due to a torn UCL in his left thumb that would require surgery. It was still good for a fourth-place Rookie of the Year finish.
A new injury popped up in May 2017, as Story strained his left shoulder and missed the minimum two weeks. In late September 2018, Story exited a game with right elbow soreness, but he missed only five games. In June of 2019, Story injured his right thumb after a headfirst slide, with the resulting IL stint costing him 11 games.
That’s the full extent of Story’s injury history in his five-plus years. He’s played in 522 games since 2017, 14th in all of MLB. Story was able to recover quickly from minor injuries in 2017, ’18, and ’19, and can safely be penciled in for 145-150 games annually.
Correa was drafted first overall by the Astros out of high school in 2012. He dealt with only minor injuries in the minor leagues until June 2014, when he suffered a fractured right fibula sliding into third base and had to undergo surgery. By January 2015, his ankle was back to 100%.
Correa opened the 2015 season at Double-A, a defensible choice since he’d yet to play at that level. He reached Triple-A by May and went on to make his big league debut on June 8th. The timing worked out well for the Astros to receive part of a seventh year of control of Correa and also avoid Super Two status, but his starting the year in the minors was justified. Correa played 99 dynamic regular season games in 2016, avoiding injury and winning the Rookie of the Year award.
2016, just Correa’s age 21 season, was perhaps the best of his career. He missed three games in June with an ankle sprain and another four with shoulder inflammation, but avoided the IL. Correa would play 153 games in the regular season that year, the only time he’s exceeded 110 Major League games in a season.
Correa’s injury history is significant, but also limited to the three-year period of 2017-19. On July 17th, 2017, according to MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart, “Correa left Monday’s 9-7 loss to the Mariners in the fourth inning after injuring the thumb on a swing, the same thumb he originally hurt sliding head-first into home July 4 in Atlanta.” The torn thumb ligament required surgery and cost him more than six weeks. He returned successfully in September of that year.
Correa’s next IL stint was in June of 2018 due to a back injury. Like the thumb the prior year, this injury cost him about a month and a half. Though he returned in mid-August, the issue lingered and affected his performance for the rest of the season. From 2015-19, 2018 is Correa’s only season with a wRC+ below 123, and it’s easy to attribute his overall 101 mark that year to his back injury. Correa had a 128 wRC+ before the injury, and just a 45 mark thereafter.
Correa’s back healed up and he started yoga in the 2018-19 offseason, but a cracked rib suffered in late May 2019 cost him a full two months. Oddly, Correa said the rib was cracked by what must have been a particularly aggressive massage. After he’d been back for about a month, he went on the IL again due to a back injury. Since then, Correa has avoided the IL, playing in 58 of 60 games in 2020.
Both Story and Correa have been starters since 2016. Story has played in 619 games – 19% more than Correa’s 520. Is Correa, who has yet to reach his 27th birthday, simply an injury-prone player? Or might he settle in at 150 games per year if he avoids headfirst slides and rough massages? If I was looking at signing him, it’s his back that I’d be concerned about, as it cost him roughly two and a half months during the 2018-19 seasons. 150 games this year would go a long way.
Overall Value
Much of Correa’s value is packed into the earlier years of his career, when he put up 13.7 WAR in 361 games from 2015-17. He’s managed only 6.1 WAR since, roughly the same as what Story did in 2019 alone. Career-wise, Correa leads Story 19.8 to 17.9.
From 2018 to present, Correa has been good for 3.7 WAR per 650 plate appearances, while Story is at 5.4. From 2019 to present, those numbers are 4.7 for Correa and 5.5 for Story. But here’s how each player projects for the rest of the season per 650 PA, according to FanGraphs:
- Correa ZiPS: 5.0
- Correa Steamer: 4.1
- Story ZiPS: 3.5
- Story Steamer: 2.9
If you buy those projections, Correa will be the better per-game player moving forward, likely due to the age difference. Aside from the durability question, that is what MLB teams must determine when offering these players contracts: who will be better over the next seven years or so?
With that lengthy comparison of Carlos Correa and Trevor Story, I turn it over to you.
Story by a mile, and that’s even before injuries. Story also played around the diamond in the Minors so may be able to move around a bit in the Majors.
Lord knows our Phillies could use him (on both sides of the ball). Shame he can’t play CF.
He could play CF. He has the speed for it. I miss the days of Trea Turner in CF.
Turner would have been a better defender in CF than SS in my opinion.
Which part is Story by a mile? Now some of this is dependent on Correa’s health this year but Total Dollars probably leans Correa right now (almost 2 years younger so likely to get a longer deal), AAV is closer to a push (I think Correa tries to max total dollars which will hurt the AAV), and better player leans Story for me (primarily health, but I also think he’s a significantly better defender).
Long winded story. And who really cares……
If I’m a GM with money to spend this offseason I’m going after Chris Taylor hard right out the gates before I look at any of the BIG SS – Dodgers will probably be in a stand-still with Seager and Taylor probably cant wait around like Turner did this year in hopes
I think there will be a lot of regrets in the Seager Baez Correa Story camps 7-10 yrs from now. Seager clearly the best, but with Boras at the helm I don’t see the numbers being favorable for the signing team in the end.
This SS market was extremely inflated in the last 2 months with Tatis and Lindor…..part of their allure comes from more than just ability (marketing etc) ….Those SS above dont hold that weight yet their agents will be using Lindor and Tatis as templates nonetheless
yeag Taylor will probably be a steal given the saturation of the market. I can see a team targeting him at 2B as well.
I think Story’s deal will end up pretty fair. Will be interesting to see how all these guys approach FA. Story will probably want to try and find a home early rather than wait for Correa/Seager.
Baez is looking at a Semien type situation at this point. If a reported $150m-$180m deal was on the table at this point it’s looking like a mistake to have not accepted.
I don’t know if you’d want Taylor as your everyday SS in the long term, but he appeals to every team in some way.
Ditka
I’d take Story is this head to head match.
Man, as a fan of a team that will likely sign one of the SS this offseason, I just really hope it wont be Correa. Way too inconsistent, way too injury prone and he’ll be signing for a premium based on what he could do, not what he’s likely to do.
And Correa has made enough enemies on the diamond, and among fans that he’ll have zero slack with a new team. The moment he starts to struggle or is hurt, it could spiral out of control.
Likability/marketability certainly does hold weight and the points you bring up are very valid
I always thought Hou should distance themselves from Correa Springer Altuve Bregman as best they could moving forward- So far 1/1, they should pass on Correa as well this year Imo
I highly doubt they would want to distance themselves with this group of MVP, SS, Top 5 MVP finishes, GG, etc.
Well so far 1/1 , we’ll see this offseason on Carlos —
Obv Altuve is a bit harder being underwater and little market
Bregman could get a Kings ransom tho if they ever decided to go that route in a quick rebuild/re-shuffle
Not an Astros fan but It would be a bitter reminder every time I saw them of being cheaters …Id rather rip the band aid off and delete any memories I had of that time frame if I was Hou even if it hurt my org for 2/3 yrs ; but thats just me
There handling post getting caught has been abysmal so your prolly right they could give 2 F__Ks….
One team bangs the can the other one bangs the bong, take your pick. Ahahahaha!
So does Story’s value go down since he’s basically surrounded in the Rockies lineup with AAA level players? You look back at the years with LeMahieu, Arenado Blackmon and others batting around him and he’s going to produce more than what he has now. GM Bridich and the Monfort Bros. ruined this team. Today marks 11 years since then Rockies President tragically passed away. Since that time the team has taken a direction that is not in the best interest of baseball. They know they have fans that will attend games for other entertainment reasons. SELL THE TEAM!
No doubt it {probably } will …Not to mention how frustrating it can be on a player to always come up with 2 outs nobody on ….
I think Story will be traded mid-season tho and the market will get a look at him how he does outside Coors….Those 2.5 months will go a long way in settling his value Imo.
Lineup protection is a myth.
Correa has had one season where he has collected more than 500 plate appearances. Plus he’s never been very consistent year-in-year-out. Defintiley a high-risk/high-reward guy. Still, he’s got a ton of talent and I feel if he’s healthy for a full season, you’re looking at a 130 wRC+ guy who hits 30+ bombs a year. Story is a bit more of a safer bet. I think the Coors field thing is a bit overblown. He’d eventually readjust to a less hittter friendly enviroment. He might not be a consistent .910-.920 OPS guy like he was in 2018-2020, but a hitter of his caliber could still be a .850-.880 OPS guy outside of Coors. Combined with his great defense and base running and he’s extremely valuabe.
I’m torn. Correa is younger and has higher upside offensively but is injury prone. Story is older and has yet to show he can consistently hit outside of coors. I’d be interested to see what seager gets and how it compares to these two, because part of me thinks story with get the lowest contract of the 3 and could very well have the best value for dollars.
Did anyone remember Correa’s numbers are also inflated by a trash can? Just sayin…
Probably just coincidence his numbers dropped considerably after he was caught cheating.
I’ll take Story all day long over Correa even if his performance is lacking.
Tremendous work. story has Coors, Correa had the trash can. So many variables in their past production.
I’ll take Story from this point forward. Back injuries are scary at such a demanding position.
But I could argue either way.
I say that Story gets dealt at the deadline and then resigns with that same team for a lot of money per year. Correa, however will be there for the Astros postseason run and then probably sign somewhere else in free agency such as Oakland, Los Angeles (either one) or some random other team
A’s couldn’t afford a QO w/ Semien, what makes you think they could make a competitive offer to Correa?
Fully agree, there’s close to zero chance of the A’s picking up Correa. He’s also a cheating punk, and even though he’s talented, I wouldn’t even want him on the team.. plus we have to save $ for Olson, Chappy, Laureano, etc.. we’ll be lucky if we keep one or two.
Correa has a high water mark of 110 games from 2016 – 2019. If he can’t stay on the field for a guy that young I don’t see how you can invest years and money in him. The Astros would be better served moving Bergman back to SS or getting a new SS. Trade or let Correa walk.
Story is the guy I would rather have on my team, and he’s going to get more money too. Is any GM going to give Correa more than the Astros offered? I would be shocked.
Story all day any day over Correa
Story vs. Correa, huh, I don’t know, tough call. . . . . . Does Correa come with a 39 gallon rubbermaid?
I’d take Story but I bet he doesn’t get a deal past 6 years. Correa may end up having a better year but part of it will be because of a contract year and he has protection in that lineup. Story has no one that will challenge him versus previous years. He probably does get traded so seeing how he does after that may determine what type of contract he could be looking at.
Despite the lack of a lineup around him hurting his chances (as many folks here have already mentioned), he’s stuck with the “Coors Field Effect” that teams will exploit in the attempt to lower his asking price.
As they should exploit.
It’s a part of business, so I fully expect them to., I’m just playing the role of Cpt. Obvious. Coors Field or not, however, the Rockies could play in any of the other 29 ballparks in MLB and would still be basement dwellers.
The true fact of the matter is that he has no help in that lineup which means he will not get pitches to hit and therefore a dip in numbers goes without saying. Regardless of where he plays.
I gotcha. If the Rockies were able to get some good pitching a few years ago, they could’ve been a contender in 2018.
Ultimately it is about perception as much as anything and how both players finish this year will have a large impact on this debate. But at this time, I will go with Correa. His younger age and the fact that Story has pretty mediocre stats outside of Coors. That will make many teams hesitant to sign Story. Don’t get me wrong, there will be plenty of interest in Story this off season. But the bigger money will likely go to Correa.
Definitely Story.
Correa has only played a full season ONE TIME, and he hasn’t been as good since the cheating scandal, so there’s no way to quantify how bad that’s hurt him by not knowing what pitches are coming.
I’d consider signing Correa as a platoon player, since he’ll only play half the season anyway, but he’ll still ask way too much.
You do realize he will get at least 20M per year no matter where he signs. No platoon.
Hi Tim,
Can you fix the year of ‘2018-13’ between ‘from’ & ‘mostly for the ‘Cardinals’? Please & thank you.
“He was not a 108 wRC+ hitter after leaving Coors, however, putting up an excellent 145 mark from ‘2018-13’, mostly for the Cardinals”.
Got it, thanks.
Your welcome, Tim!
*You’re…
Lots of good stats for both players – plus I don’t watch either play too often. That said I will have to go with Story. 1) Correa doesn’t look Korean and for some reason that irks me – like he is trying to pull a fast one. 2) When I see the name Trevor Story I immediately think of the movie Toy story..which I loved. Therefore I will have to go with Story on all 3 polls. Its as good a reason as anyone elses and I have just as much chance of getting it right lol.
Toy story. LOL. True.
This is a well written article – a nicely comprehensive look at two excellent players. Thank you for the time and effort put into this!
I think for sake of answering the article, Correa gets more money overall but AAV will favor Story. One thing I’d like to ask everyone. When doing comparison’s with Coor’s Field players and naming their Home/Road splits don’t we also have to take a look at the MLB average Home/Road splits for all players? I’m not one up to date on all these “newfangled thingamajob stats” (say it with me “Ok Boomer, lol) but I think there is always a drop in home/road stats for almost all players. And if so don’t we have to discount the Coor’s Field effect a bit. It seems we over value the effect of the park possibly. I’m not saying that someone who has monstrous stats at Coor’s is going to repeat those exact numbers when signing somewhere else as a free agent, but to look at just the split differential and say “Aha, see he sucks away from Coor’s” is a mistake. As always the answer lies somewhere in the middle. And my post isn’t a reflection or argument to any person’s post or to anything really written in the article. Just a thought I figured I’d share.
In short wrc+ works but as you allude too its not perfect science by any means
I’m not sure how it works, if you were replying to my comment Cap, but thanks. Honestly I have such a hard time keeping up with the new stats I glossed right over it being “wrc+” (which I didn’t know what it was) and just read it as OPS+. which I think I do, which gave me the question. I see my post was considerably redundant now. lol
Both will sign for pretty good deals, but the Seager deal will determine price. (Meaning not near what he signs for)… I voted Story though because he has been more healthy overall. I’m sure most teams would take either one though.
There are a limited number of fools with the money to give out 300 million dollar contracts
These contracts will come back to bite almost every team
Look at all the players who were stars for a few years and then tanked.
How about Robinson Cano? I could go on with dozens of examples of contract disasters
How many Yankee fans are sorry the Yanks got Stanton??? His contract weighs them down now.
Only if they let it, as they are this year. They won’t next after they reset their tax. Stanton’s $22M AAV is a pimple on their ass.
I disagree with you.
That is not the way it plays out.
That’s fine, but I’m quite confident their payroll goes up, especially if they put up a mediocre season.
Correa is a very good defender. I dont care what any sabermetric stat says. His arm is elite and his range is good for a guy 6’4. Not to mention the astros shift a ton which cant help when you’re on both sides of the diamond all game
I think Story would look to go to a team with a shorter window of opportunity, to take advantage of his age, but, IMHO, overall better all-around total game. Correa has the luxury to sign a longer-term contract, and still deliver above average production. Neither one will be hurting when they put the pen to the paper.
3 years ago I may have said Correa, but he really damaged his reputation with the trash can scandal. He’s still a very good player, and he will likely continue to be good, but the way he personally handled the situation was terrible and I wouldn’t necessarily want him in my clubhouse. So I’m going with Story if I’m a GM.
Lol at this article. Story all the way…
Tim, didn’t you ever hear that the boss isn’t supposed to work so hard? A lot of fine work here my man, kudos to you. In the end, my opinion is Correa is younger and there is doubt surrounding Story’s numbers due to the Coors effect. So, despite durability concerns, I think Carlos has more earning power. But it’s very close.
I’ll give you the cheating and durability issues. But attitude problems? He is considered a leader and that will be attractive to other teams. I’m not aware of any attitude problems. Sounds like you’re a hater.
I think Story gets more per year on a shorter deal. Not having to play in Colorado should make his offensive value more consistent with less adjusting to high altitude and better hitters around him.
“Why use wRC+? It’s park-adjusted, so it neutralizes the fact that Story has played 50.7% of his games in Coors Field.”
Doesn’t OPS+ do this as well? OPS+ has Correa by a decent margin, but I’d go with Story because of durability issues.
I can’t think of a reason one would use OPS+ with wRC+ available. OPS starts with the incorrect premise that OBP and SLG are equal.
Appreciate the in-depth comparison, Tim. Choosing between them is very difficult.
Story no doubt. He’s a classy player too (unlike the other player mentioned)
To me, it’s clear that as the younger player Correa gets more total dollars while Story gets a higher AAV. As for performance over the next seven years, it depends on whether you want to bet on Correa’s upside or Story’s consistency. Personally, I’d choose Correa if he can stay healthy, which is a pretty big if.
The Rangers are reportedly chomping at the bit next off season to sign Story and make him their cornerstone player. He’s from DFW and grew up a Rangers fan. They have only 33 million committed to salaries next year.
A couple of things to note here. Defensive stats like UZR and OAA are questionable at best. How could Correa be the 4th best SS in one, and 4th worst SS in the other for the same year??? (2018). Also, I’d love to see how they calculated that Minute Maid Park actually hurts offense (aka – it’s a pitchers park). That place is a bandbox! Sure CF is deep, but LF is ridiculously short and RF is quite short as well. I always cringe watching pitchers throw in that park. Balls always seems to end up on or near the train tracks at least once a game!
I alluded to this above, but the 2018 results speak to the limitations of UZR, which doesn’t account for shifting (and the Astros shifted more than any other team).
Story and it’s not even close.
I know this wasn’t the poll question but I could see the Dodgers letting Seager walk due to his asking price (which will and should be very high) and paying Story much less (than what Seager will command) to play SS. I’m a Dodgers fan (and love Seager) but there’s no way they hand out another $300M contract (or something near that) with all that young talent waiting in the wings to get paid. Honestly, I really wouldn’t hate it if that scenario played out that way.
Im with ya Yonkers all the way around –
Id rather just re-sign Taylor and see if Lux is still able to play Ss – We have to think about Buehler Urias and May today….those are the guys who are going to carry this team thru the 2nd half of the 2020s ….We don’t need any more help the first half
Big fan of Seager but there’s very few players n the game (less than 5 ) id Commit 300+ too, and he’s not one of them
Everybody seems to think its a slam dunk, Im with ya tho id say 50-50 at best today……. Dodgers like to control what players do in the box as well, Seager is anti that to say the least, it might be the small straw that……
Just curious, what do you mean dodgers like to control what players do in the box? And how is Seaver anti that? I guess I just don’t follow the dodgers closely enough to know exactly what you mean.
They really want their players to work the count, especially in certain matchups. Seager is one of the heaviest first ball hitters in the game
They also like their hitters to involve themselves in a lot of pre game video sessions on the pitcher they are facing. Corrie just likes to see ball hit ball.
I mean you cant argue with results, and every humans different but there have been small qips here and there in the past (ofc predating last year tho 🙂 ) Dont think its a major major issue but when your thinking of a 10 yr 300 mill ink there’s a lot to consider
Dodgers like company men, Im not saying Seagers a bad teammate but he might be too cavalier when considering the opportunity cost
Correa’s defense sucks…
His cover story for Altuve’s nervousness over the removal of his jersey was ‘a bad tattoo’.
Is that the guy you want answering questions from your wife when you’re out late with your phone turned off?
Yeah, no.
What does the Altuve story have to do with who is more talented?
Right over your head.
Huh?
I made a fairly snarky comment in the original FA list saying Story was a far better player, but I definitely appreciate the thoughtful analysis here. I still lean towards Story getting a higher annual salary, but maybe his total money ends up slightly lower. That said, I think any team that signs Correa past 6 years will regret it. I just don’t see his body holding up long term, especially with the injuries he’s already had. But, as the saying goes, it only takes one team, so it’s definitely possible some GM is willing to go 8 years to get a deal done. My question for the crowd, what teams do people see as realistically involved in the SS market this summer? Beyond Story and Correa there are several options and it seems like the number of teams looking to sign big contracts is dwindling year after year. There are also a few bigger teams likely not looking for a SS, unless someone is willing to shift positions. Let’s get some predictions going!
@Tim Dierkes: I enjoyed this read. I would like to see more of these head-to-head comps. It saves from reading through the various different stat thread posts, or toggling between different sites.
These discussions occur so frequently here it could easily be a weekly poll article with different matchups. Thank you.
As an Astros fan, I’m not shelling out for what Correa wants and will probably get close to from someone desperate. Good player with injuries which will force a position change (and value decrease) eventually.
I’m betting Story never breaks a rib getting a massage. Great player but Correa may be a little tender for a long term guaranteed contract.
Arenado’s coming back down to earth. Story isn’t as strong a hitter as Arenado. Any offense Story supplies for a non-Rockies team in 2022 and beyond should come as a surprise.
Even with an injury-prone Correa, or one that does not know which pitch is coming, he’s better than Story. Yet I’d sign neither guy. The asking price for both players are above and beyond what they can produce beyond this year and into their 30s.
Distance from their core players, drafted, and developed in-house? Do you mean tank and rebuild? Astros’ fans don’t feel anything like you. There was no way for the Astros’ to sign Springer.
The Yankees may like Correa and the Astros may like Torres.
The Yankees may like Correa and the Astros may like Torres.
Story. Simply can’t ignore the injuries and games missed by Correa. It only gets more difficult as a player ages. And any discussion of the “Coors effect” should recognize road stats frequently adjust upwards once a player is away from Coors. OPS+ also adjusts for park.
Where people get confused is that “Coors effect” is reflected in batting average and slugging percentage. The increase in slugging is related to the amount of doubles and triples hit at Coors, not home runs.
Coors is a double and triple paradise due to the field playing fast (due to the dry atmosphere) and the size of the ball park (which is massive). Hitters get a ton of run on line drives hit and ground balls hit into the outfield.
Coors has a stigma to it thanks to the early years when the ball flew out of the park at an insane rate.
Friendliness of ballparks also is subjective to how good the home team is… how good their offense is and how good their pitching is. If a team has an average offense but their pitching is atrocious, it will play as “hitter friendly”. Minute Maid used to be considered one of the most hitter friendly parks in baseball.. not so much the case when they have/had Cole, Grienkie, Verlander, DK, Morton etc.
I hate when anyone from Colorado hits free agency because people lose their mind when it comes to their stats, offensively and for their pitchers. I remember fans talking about how great Chatwood was going to be outside of Coors or how DJ was going to be a bust and so on.
I’m bad at math but how does Story and Correa “clearly fall behind” Seager?
2018- 6.2 WAR vs. 0.5 WAR (Seager was injured but Seager has never posted a 6.2 WAR)
2019- 7 WAR vs. 3 WAR
2020- 2.6 WAR vs. 2.1 WAR
Story has out performed Seager every step along the way.
It will be interesting to see what Story, Correa, Seager and Baez get when the smoke clears.
I think it is pretty easy to go with Correa. I think he has the higher ceiling and floor, is younger, beats Story on defense (by my eyes perspective) and has been in the high pressure games. Personally, I hope my team if they sign one would sign Story as I don’t like Correa’s behavior and think he would be a negative for a club house.
But Correa deserves the bigger/longer contract. Id say 6/135 for Correa, 5/120 for Story
No disrespect to Correa, who is very good with the glove, but he’s not in Story’s class defensively.
I think Correa will be successful if he switches new team than Story. I do not think Story will be the ‘next’ Holiday nor LeMahieu. Since Correa has one ring and has guided the Astros to couple trips to the postseason, he deserve a big contract when his current contract is up at the end of the season. I think Story will get a good contract when he hits the free agent market but not that super like Tatis’s recent contract extension. I would pick Correa to be a better player than Story in the next 5-10 seasons.
A WS ring alone is not a measure of a player’s skills, at all.