The upcoming free-agent class lost an elite shortstop when Francisco Lindor and the Mets agreed to a whopping 10-year, $341MM contract on Wednesday. But it doesn’t appear the Astros’ Carlos Correa will join Lindor in forgoing a trip to the open market next winter. The Astros made somewhat of an effort to extend Correa, but the two sides “didn’t get close at all,” Correa told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and other reporters on Thursday. Unless Correa unexpectedly lifts his Opening Day deadline for negotiations, it looks as if he could be going into his last season in Houston.
The Astros made Correa a six-year, $120MM offer and then followed with a five-year, $125MM proposal, according to the former All-Star and AL Rookie of the Year (via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle). But Correa doesn’t believe the Astros were ever all that serious about extending him, as he said (per McTaggart): “There were not really any negotiations. The way I feel is it’s another year with the Houston Astros and I’m going to go out there and do my best and try to bring a championship to the city.” Correa added that Houston “made it clear to me they don’t believe in long contracts, they don’t believe in big contracts.”
The Astros have handed out “long” and “big” deals in the past to the likes of second baseman Jose Altuve and third baseman Alex Bregman, and they did give right-hander Lance McCullers Jr. a five-year, $85MM extension last week. As of now, though, it doesn’t seem Correa will join them in sticking around for the long haul.
Going forward, odds are against Correa’s contract approaching Lindor’s, but as an immensely talented 26-year-old, the former No. 1 overall pick should earn a significant payday if he stays healthy and rebounds from his so-so 2020 performance. Correa did miss a good amount of time with various injuries in each season from 2017-19, though his production has mostly been excellent since he debuted in 2015. So far, Correa has batted .276/.353/.480 (127 wRC+) with 107 home runs and 19.4 fWAR in 2,583 plate appearances. Barring any in-season extensions, Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story and Javier Baez will battle to earn the largest deal among free-agent shortstops over the winter.
Carlos Correa is better than Jeremy Peña for sure but he’ll make 60 times more than Peña for a couple of years before JP gets a little more. Then Correa will make ten times what Peña makes. Does Correa give ten times Peña’s WAR? I’m gambling not. Correa is a 5 WAR guy, I think Peña is a 2 or 3 WAR guy. Is two wins worth an extra twenty five million for one guy? I don’t think so. You can use the money you would’ve given Correa to upgrade the rotation, outfield, or one of the other shortstops available. We can get a damn good player this offseason with a 5/125 offer. Thor perhaps?
Pena is a plus defender. I’m not sure he has the same range as Correa, but for all the talk about Correa’s arm, Pena is his equal there. He also has a cannon and has been clocked at 95 across the infield to first. Will Pena hit is the question. Good chance he gets a look see sometime this season.
Even if Peña can give me plus defense and hit .260 with 10-15 homers and 50 rbi, that’s about 2/3 of what Correa produced. Not what Correa was capable of but what Correa produced from 2015-2020. First three years were great, next three not so much. So if Peña can give me 2/3 the production for something ridiculous like 500k for two years, then a couple million for two more, I know we can upgrade the team elsewhere. I’m not asking Peña to be Correa, that’s unlikely. But can he be the best version of himself and like I say that’s probably about .260/.335/.460 with 10-15 bombs and 50-60 RBI. That production is worth the discount Correa would’ve cost. Thor is perfect for me, get him working with Strom and he could be like Gerrit Cole. His stuff is incredible. I think he’d take a 5/125 deal because he’s gonna be 30 coming off TJ. It’s a risk I’d take. I’d rather gamble 5/125 on Thor than 10/320 on Correa.
WAR is closer to logarithmic than linear
And more like cinnamon than peanuts duh!
Houston doesn’t like long or big contracts. Sure sounds like they are bargain shopping next offseason
I think Andrelton Simmons will be right up their alley, although it would be humorous if they signed Seager or Story for something like 8/$240M and totally contradict themselves
Simmons or Seimien jumped to my mind at once. Maybe they copy the angels and get Iglesias? I kid.
Could be negotiating but doesn’t sound like it. Least not with Correa. Would be funny if they’re just like “we don’t like big deals for you.. not anyone”
Lol at Seager coming to Houston.
@lurking
No they don’t but they do like lying, stealing & cheating so is there that.
I feel so sorry for you.
Ahahahahah!
Living rent free baby!!!!
Well not exactly rent free, I like to slap them around most nights while I scold them for being lying, stealing, cheating little punks. Only problem is they seem to enjoy it, you know, kinda like you.
Riddlers rumors soon?
Lol, yea it is!
Gotham, here’s why negotiations with Correa are stalling:
Astros: “Carlos, you know your numbers are inflated, I mean, c’mon, Lindor’s not even worth that, and his numbers are from natural talent!”
Correa: “Guys, you know if I wasn’t injured, I’d of beat the pants of that midget by doubling his WAR. I’m getting somewhere near what he gets and you better pay up, or else!”
Astros: “Carlos, espousing us will further implicate you in the scandal and work against your goal of trying to paint the picture of your ascension to top SS in the league. You know, you cheated….. a lot”
Carlos: “You guys helped set it up!”
Well, you get the idea. It can take a while to sort out the details, NDA, etc.
Yawn
I know right?! They should just both be reasonable. There’s no reason for mudslinging. He’s not that good, they both cheated, just get it done already. I agree with you!
Somebody stop me!
Springer was part of the same system and got paid.
James Click is from the Tampa Bay front office and they don’t hand out long term deals when someone capable is in AAA. They don’t want to follow the trend and offer a ridiculous 10 year deal. Who wants a 36 year old SS at $25m?
That they were and titles should have been vacated
Not saying that they shouldn’t pay him but how many millions is Correa looking for per yr AND for how many years? The players are rich, the owners are richer. If Correa’s wants to chase EVERY $250,000.00 (that’s MLB,NBA,NFL equivalent to a dollar), good for him. Go for it. If he wants to stay in Houston and still make multi generations of money, he needs to check his ego at the door and get a deal done. At this point it’s his decision.
If I’m Correa, and just watched Lindor get $340/10, there’s a zero percent chance I’m taking anything close to those offers. I’d love for Correa to stick around, but he’s worth more than what Houston is offering.
He’s also worth less that he thinks he is worth. A weird situation. Healthy he’s better than Lindor, but he can’t stay off of the IL so it’s a moot point. He’s worth more than $25, but probably less than $30.
Still think he is in Houston next season.
He’s worth about 7 or 8 at $200M. If Houston really wanted to keep him they should have put that on the table. If he turns that down, he can walk.
@puhl 8/200 would’ve been my final offer as well. Sweet deal but obviously well short of what Frankie got with the Mets.
He’s worth what one team will pay him – and there will be runners-up in the offseason SS derby with money to spend.
You have to think that Correa was a little insulted by the AAV on those offers. He’s probably looking at what Altuve and Bregman are getting for the free agent years that were bought out in their extensions and wondering why that wasn’t offered.
Or maybe they know what he’s worth because they know more about him? It’s odd that they’d start so low on someone so incredibly awesome unless they knew he wasn’t the product he was purported to be.
Correa is not Lindor. Correa was sidelined by a massage. Lindor has played almost 180 more games in the same time frame, was an all-star 4 x and has two gold gloves. Correa showed some real leadership skills in the playoffs last year and I think all Astros’ fans would love to see him play here for the next 5+ years. But with his history of injury and sporadic play, he can’t reasonably expect any team to go all in for a long term deal. 5/125 is a shorter term equivalent to Springer’s deal and we will miss Springer more than Correa. I will happily root for him to have an awesome MVP year and to show everyone why he deserves a long term big contract. Let’s see.
But Correa THINKS he’s Lindor, that’s all that matters. And even if his offer is only 2/3 of Lindor’s, that figure by itself is still 110 million more than what the Astros offered him. And with his age and “potential”, a young up and coming team trying to signal the end of their rebuild will sign him. One of those “whoa, they’re back to spending again huh?” Teams. I’d look for Seattle, Detroit, or Miami. Correa I’m sure would love to go to Seattle where he’d have the chance to stick it to the Astros for not paying him what he wanted. I’ll say he signs there. They’ve done the big deal before, Robby Cano comes to mind.
Why would Seattle sign Correa? They have a young shortstop that has shown progress. They also have a super young core coming up. I doubt they sign an oft-injured shortstop as their “exiting the rebuild” salvo.
I personally think they would sign a third baseman to replace Seager to signal their attempt at competing.
A young shortstop that has shown progress is different than Correa. I think the appeal of making Houston weaker while strengthening themselves is tempting for them. Plus Dipoto does stuff like that. I could see Correa there but of course your guess is as good as mine. What do you think about Detroit or Miami?
Correa would be a good fit with the Giants. In addition to his talent, I love the way he takes charge in the Astros infield. Yes, I am a Dodgers fan, but I am also a Correa fan. I have followed him closely since he and Seager came up at the same time. My best guess is they’ll both have a new home in 2022.
Throw me a fastball. Throw me a fastball. Remember that?
The Giants already have an elite shortstop prospect. He’s named Luciano or something. I think Correa will go join his old manager AJ Hinch in Detroit.
Heckuva player wherever he winds up.
Cey Hey: In my opinion, Seager is much better than Correa. The final numbers will reflect as much.
Cey Hey:
I agree. The Giants have Luciano coming up, but he probably won’t be ready in 2022. Signing Correa next season, and plugging Luciano in at 3B when Longoria’s contract is up, makes a lot of sense.
Yankee Clipper:
Seager is a better hitter, but is the worse fielder by far in next season’s SS class. I could be wrong, given Zaidi’s connection to LA players, but I don’t see Seager as the Giants type of player. Story and Correa are better fits for the Giants IMO.
Tad: Yeah, I do agree at this point, but I think Seager’s health/production will sustain for much longer than Correa. And I should’ve clarified, I mean final career numbers, not just this season. I believe you’ll start to see the separation get more disparate as Correa ages because Seager will age better.
In fact, I think it may have been you, Tad, in another post who postulated, “the bat guy will age much better than the glove guy.” I think that’s accurate.
@Ww0907. Detroit and Miami are both interesting landing spots for Correa, I wouldn’t be surprised if either got him. I know Dipoto used to do that in his Angels days but in recent years it seems he’s building a team the right way. Of course if he has a ton of money to spend this off-season he could prove me very wrong.
Correa is not a 300 million superstar. He’s proved that he has great talent but he’s also proved that he’s oft injured and inconsistent. Not the kind of performance that gets 300 million. He will get 200.
I think it 6/175. Gives him a second shot to get a decent contract and still get paid while hopefully showing he can stay healthy.
4APlayer:
I don’t think “he’s…proved that he’s oft injured and inconsistent”. He has struggled with injuries so far, but saying he’s proved to be oft-injured implies he always will be,
The Astros signing Brantley was, in my eyes and those of many others, to be a gamble, given that he had been oft-injured. Same thing with Ryu when he signed with the Jays. Both signings have worked out well. Just because he’s had injury problems does mean he always will.
But to call him inconsistent doesn’t make sense. All players have ups and downs, and Correa’s numbers are not that inconsistent.
Cheater.
Troll
Horrible joke of a offer. If he is injuried or less than stellar he still beats that offer. If healthy and good he gets over 200.
The baseball star of the day so far is Michael A. Taylor, who went 3-5 with a home run and 3 RBI while throwing two runners out at the plate.
Without looking it up, what team does Michael A. Taylor now play for?
Brewers?
Nope. Similar market, though. Under-the-radar signing.
I don’t know about that, Ketel Marte would be my baseball star of the day.
Marte’s team lost and he didn’t throw out two runners at the plate.
jimdevinmoriah
KC
KC is correct.
Bitch boy
Correa has the lowest floor a superstar can have. I like Correa, but I don’t want him at his asking price.
I love the way Houston spends money but avoid albatross contracts. I really hope Correa has a monster year and then goes to a divisional opponent on a megadeal, and then breaks down. He can be the next Pujols.
You hope he breaks down? That’s a terrible thing to say.
That does read somewhat harshly….and I can’t stand that cheater.
Calling Correa a superstar is the equivalent of calling the asterisks world champions! The Houston fan base is as sad & pathetic as the organization itself. Ahahahaha!
Correa is a superstar
Without the whole “super” part though.
Every one of those shortstops will be gunning for an AAV of $30M, especially if their walk season is better than 2021 Lindor’s.
They will but they won’t all get it… lindor only got it bc of elite defense and the Mets’ desperation for a big name player… his offensive numbers certainly didn’t warrant it
You’re probably right but you never know…. they’re all within a year or two of each other in age and depending on the type of offensive years each has (I think they’re all too talented to flounder in a walk year), there’s a chance 4 shortstops could be signing contracts accumulating to $1 Billion after the World Series.
Now that’s crazy to consider.
You’re also right in that the Mets were desperate to attract a “free agent” (I realize he was traded for) to mitigate all the prior years of losing with the old ownership. Lindor said he felt immediately “comfortable” with New York. Yeah, bring me the prospects of making generational money and I’ll be comfortable whereas well. Not. To take anything away from Lindor, his hard workplace, talent, charity in the community, but it was an overpay, His shortstop contemporaries thank him for it though.
Agree on all fronts
I wonder if Carlos Correa has looked at his numbers. Maybe I’m missing something but his numbers are average. He doesn’t hit for big power or drive in runs or score that many either. The same can be said for Seager. Neither of them has played well enough over any kind of stretch to garner that kind of salary.
Seager is a better bet than Correa. The former has been slowly recovering from various surgeries and showed what he can do when near full speed – NLCS and World Series MVP. Correa can’t look at his numbers objectively because there are trashcan noises drowning out his better judgement.
There’s no doubt he’s talented, but still…. screw him and his cavalier and in genuine, non-apologetic attitude towards him and this teammates for cheating.
Truth
Good when healthy. Otherwise not worth it. Astros know what they are doing
It all comes down to whether you think Carlos’ numbers are likely to go up or down. Is his career trajectory likely to continue to go south, or rebound so his stock goes north. Are we looking at a North Correa or South Correa. That is the question.
I see what you did there.
Being he not going to get younger and he’s a CHEATER. Trash cans be damned he’s headed downhill
Is Correa under the mistaken impression that he’s worth anything near lindor or Tatis? He’s played one full normal s length season and then last year’s full shortened season, sandwiched around three years averaging less than 100 games… OPS+ below 100 two of last three years… Astros offers are generous in my mind, not sure where this belief that name value and age bring you $200M
Correa must be putting a lot of stock in his 2021 season. If he stays healthy, that’s a big if given his track record, he has a shot at a sizable (not Lindor) contract. If he gets hurt again, I think he’d wish he negotiated more with Houston during this early part of the season.
Offer Correa nothing, Sign Kris Bryant, Slide A.B. over to short, You just improved your team tremendously and rid yourself of an under-achieving injury prone inflated salary. No brainer.
I wonder how strong Houston will be next year if Correa, Verlander, and Grienke all leave. I don’t think their farm system is too strong so this year might be their last run
Verlander isn’t there now, Correa is easily replaced, and Grienke wants to come back for two more seasons. Astros have some great young arms pitching NOW, that will only improve with experience. Plus adding Oddorizzi, and McCullers just extended long term. They are actually in good shape there.
With Correa gone, they can pursue a couple of nice free agents to fill in any holes and never miss a beat. You still have Altuve, Brantley, Bregman, Tucker, Alvarez……….I find it humorous when people speak of (or hope for) the demise of the Astros.
They are gonna be VERY good for at least 4 more years, deal with it people.
As long as they sell metal trash cans they will win Titles! Come on, whoever was paying the bill for all the trash cans had to know! They should have had those Championships vacated! Guys who didn’t cheat will always wonder which Astro has his ring on!
All of these mlb teams were and are bending the rules in one way or another. Additionally, Duke did a very deep dive into the stats for 2017, the results show that the sign stealing didn’t lead to even one additional win, and only 4 safe hits for the entire season.
Pitchers scuff balls, hitters doctor bats, players use drugs to enhance performance, it goes on and on…..The Astros took the fall for all of the others in the league, every player knows it.
By your logic, they should have hit much better at home than on the road, and just the opposite is true.
They are tearing the cover off the ball so far this year, looks like another World Series run to me!
Best team in baseball. Of course in New York and LA they can buy a decent team and pay stupid money (Lindor’s deal) and jack up the balance of power in the league, denying the small market teams like KC and Pittsburgh from ever having a chance…..where’s the so called “fan outcry” there? People who are losers love to hate winners, and will never take the time to look at a situation with intelligence to see where the real problems are in the game, and there are plenty. Quit whinning and crying Astro haters, or better yet, keep it up and give them more reasons to slam baseballs into your outfield stands…I for one love it!
Go ‘Stros !
I see Correa having slightly better season – short injury, plays 140 games at above average production.
He and the Astros agree to a 5 yr 150 mil deal.
Carlos gets $30 mil AAV but has to test free agency again as a 32 year old.
Astros keep the fans happy and limit the long term albatross contract.
Won’t keep this fan happy, the guy won’t play through a hang nail, hope he’s gone at the end of the year, plenty of good players out there who play 150 games EVERY year (Kris Bryant) if you’re going to pay that kind of money.
Don’t waste it on a player who under achieves and gives yo 90 games a year. Waste of good money.