TODAY: The Royals have officially announced Dozier’s extension. The Athletic’s Alec Lewis (Twitter links) has the financial breakdown — Dozier will get a $1MM signing bonus, $2.25MM this season, $4.5MM in 2022, $7.25MM in 2023, $9MM in 2024, and there is a $1MM buyout on the $10MM club option for 2025. There are multiple escalators involved, including $1MM bonuses for various awards.
FEB. 28, 9:51AM: Dozier and the Royals are in agreement on a four-year, $25MM guarantee with a $10MM option for 2025, per Jeff Passan of ESPN (Twitter link). If Dozier reaches all available escalators and bonuses, it could max out at $49MM, Passan reports.
9:35AM: While the deal isn’t yet complete, there’s “optimism” it’ll get over the finish line, per Alec Lewis and Andy McCullough of the Athletic (via Twitter). If finalized, the guarantee is expected to land in the $25MM range, report Lewis and McCullough. The 2025 option would be worth $10MM, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).
8:59AM: The Royals are finalizing a four-year contract extension with Hunter Dozier, reports Robert Murray of FanSided (Twitter link). The proposed deal would also contain a club option for 2025, per Murray. Dozier is a client of The L. Warner Companies, Inc.
As a player with three-plus years of MLB service, the 29-year-old wasn’t set to reach free agency until after the 2023 season. Rather than proceed year-by-year through arbitration, the parties are locking in some cost certainty over the next three seasons while lengthening their relationship by at least one year. The deal will buy out Dozier’s first year of would-be free agency, while the club option adds a second additional season of team control.
Despite being selected eighth overall out of Stephen F. Austin University in 2013, Dozier had something of a slow ascent through the minors. He made his MLB debut as a September call-up in 2016, but it wasn’t until the middle of the 2018 season that he had established himself as a big league regular.
Dozier struggled down the stretch as a rookie but seemed to break out as a middle-of-the-order bat in his sophomore season. The right-handed hitter popped 26 home runs and hit .279/.348/.522 across 586 plate appearances in 2019. Dozier’s batted ball metrics reinforced that power output. His 91.1 MPH average exit velocity placed him in the 83rd percentile league-wide; Dozier’s hard contact and barrel rates were similarly impressive. A higher than average 25.3% strikeout rate and .339 BABIP hinted at some potential regression in future seasons, but Dozier’s power and decent plate discipline positioned him as an above-average offensive performer nonetheless.
The shortened 2020 season, however, proved a difficult one for Dozier. That was the case for plenty of players, but Dozier was one of the players most directly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. He tested positive for the coronavirus last July and was forced to start the season on the injured list. Upon his return, he lacked the same power he’d shown the season before. Whether because of his bout with COVID-19 or merely due to the season’s small sample size (he tallied just 186 plate appearances), the Royals clearly feel Dozier’s .228/.344/.392 line was anomalous.
Regaining his footing at the plate is critical for Dozier, who’s rather limited defensively. He broke in as a third baseman, but defensive metrics panned his work at the hot corner from 2018-19. After signing Maikel Franco last offseason, Kansas City mostly limited Dozier to first base and the corner outfield in 2020. Franco is back in free agency, possibly bumping Dozier back to third this year (and perhaps beyond). At his age, it’s doubtful he transforms into an above-average defender at the position.
Last November, Dozier agreed to a $2.72MM deal to avoid arbitration. It remains to be seen if this extension changes that figure. At the moment, the Royals have around $90MM on the books for the upcoming season, right in line with last year’s payroll. Besides Dozier, only Whit Merrifield and recent free agent signees Carlos Santana and Mike Minor have guaranteed money on the books beyond 2021. That should leave plenty of long-term payroll space for the Royals, who will see Salvador Pérez and Jorge Soler reach free agency (barring extensions of their own) next offseason.
I’m guessing it’s for 3 years/$17.28M or so.
Not sure if it’s been updated but the article says four years. Very hard to gauge anyone whose best year was 2019. Good for both sides to get certainty.
These contracts like this make me nervous, Craig, Grichuk, Piscotty, they all have one thing in common, Matheny was the manager they were signed under.
4/25 mil is good for both sides. Average 3rd basemen hopefully him and Soler are back to 2019 form,
Except look at all the players who had career years in 19 due to the rabbit ball. I’m hoping Devers has 19 type year, Mets fans are hoping the same for Alonso, etc. 2021 should benefit hitters given pitchers will mostly be on short leashes. Advantage hitters over the 12th and 13th pitcher on a team’s roster at any given point.
And people seem to be ignoring the fact he will turn 30 this season. He’s 29.5 years old
Everyone is acting like we are talking about some 25 year old that showed a flash 2 years ago as a kid. No, were talking an aged vet who showed a minor flash as a peak aged player during a juiced ball season.
And the minor flash still only made him slightly above average, it was not an all star level showing in any way
He is the type most teams are thinking about DFAing at this point in their careers, not locking into 4 year, 25 million dollar contracts. This deal is just silly
Agreed
Wrong
He’s making $2.9m next year. In the Max year of the contract he’s making $7m. He’s not being paid as an all star. Nobody thinks he’s probably going to be batting 6th or 7th. It’s not like he’s breaking the bank.
Not correct
They’d already settled Arbitration for 2021. He was set to make just 2.75 million (his stats do not warrent much) Now he’ll make 2.25 in 21 and 4.5 in 22, with a 1 million signing bonus. So can be thought of as the 2.75 and 5, which are realistic Arbitration numbers for his 2 remaining controlled years they bought out
He’ll then now make 7.25 in 23 and 9 million in 24, what would be his 2 FA seasons. There is also a 1 million buyout for 2025 they will pay. He is projected to be worth a combined 2 WAR over those 2 seasons, so only half the production of an average player. But he will make 17.25 million for them (after the certain buyout)
Looking at Joc Pederson, we can see a projected Average player in 21, with a much better track record, that is younger than Dozier (much younger than Dozier will be in 2023/24.) He will make just 7 million in 21, so less than Hunter will in either bought out FA year despite being expected to produce twice as much
This salary just does not match a player that truly would have been a DFA/non-tender candidate on many clubs. And he doesn’t even really have a position in KC (they added a new corner OFer and 1B, the only two positions he should play. So apparently they will move him back to 3B where he is frankly horrible …of 3B with at least 1k innings the last 3 years, he has the 4th worst UZR/150)
It’s throwing about 15 million away. They could have had him in 21-22 for what this pays him, and the 17.25 million they’ve promised for his 23-24 production could have been replaced for a couple million, or even a Minor League signing (see, Travis Shaw.)
I always like seeing players getting good paydays. Even if it’s not $340 mil, that kind of money is life changing for a lot of young players. Good for Hunter.
25-49 mil is life changing if you ask me. If handled right, his family could be set for generations
He is 29 years old. Also, he already has at least 5 million to his name including a 2+ mil signing bonus from being a 1st rd pick. but yes, still a sizeable payday for a guy who prior to 2019 seemed like a huge bust.
I’m not sure he doesn’t still look like a bust. He plays crap defense and the numbers suggest 2019 is the absolute peak of what he can do offensively. Would be fine if he did that every year but who wants to bet on that? He’s almost 30 years old so I don’t really see another bust out coming.
This seems to be a really low upside move for KC.
KC seems to be about as good of a franchise to be drafted into as you can get. Players seem to love it, given their desire to stay forever, which is a testament to their fans, city, and team. The franchise gives the players their shot when they have little to left prove in the minors, they pay them fair extensions… I just respect the hell outta them.
Kansas City, St. Louis and Atlanta has something in the water that makes players want to stay.
With Cohen. That I’ll be the Mets too. You already see how a bunch of new people wanted to come. Half of our 40 man roster is a new face.
Tbh i’m going have to disagree with you there. Lindor and Carrasco don’t count because they were trades and Lindor didn’t demand one to the Mets. McCann probably wanted to go there. Then other players like Villar, Almora, Martinez and Pillar are just players looking for jobs, maybe not Pillar. I can see more of that in the future, but I think players might of been hesitant because the Mets need to show they’re the read deal.
Players mostly want to stay where the team wins and where the money is. Losing is no fun and baseball is still a business.
Nice stadiums and solid fan bases that are mostly devoid of the rude, obnoxious homers that make playing in several other cities incredibly difficult
I’m sorry are we talking about st Louis?
Winning brings out ego and arrogance.
Are you serious? KC has lost every one of it’s major Free Agents except for Gordon who was a terrible re-signing. Players are only interested in cash. And KC don’t have it.
Are you serious? Gordon extended, Salvy extended, Duffy extended, Yordano extended, Whit extended, Moose came back (even if only for a year)… and they were seriously in the hunt to bring back Hosmer. The Royals do a very good job of keeping their players.
Gordon and Salvy extended twice. Greinke also signed an extension before demanding to be traded.
Salvy’s second extension didn’t actually add any years, they gave him a raise when they had no obligation to do so because he so vastly outperformed his original extension. Add that to paying their minor league players last year and not laying off any staff, people notice that.
Awful take!
Not sure what it is; I lived in Kansas City for 2 years and I couldn’t wait to leave.
I spent a month in KC one night.
Sorry SanDiegoTom, we can’t compete with 72 and Sunny 363 days a year 🙂
San Diego is boring af. Cousins live there, it looks nice but pretty boring.
If you think SD is boring, then I can’t fathom how you’d think Kansas City wouldn’t be. You can do just about everything in SD that you can in KC along with a TON of awesome things in or in reasonable drive to the city that KC will never have.
Never been to KC. I was 7-8 (14 now) when we went to SD so it could of changed over time. Have you been to KC? KC is more of a family city where SD is the opposite IMO
Judging a city based on your opinions of it that were formed when you were 7 years old is a bad idea.
I had no idea you were so young. What interests you now or how you perceive a city will very likely be drastically different when you are older. I have been to KC and while it’s a fine enough city in and of itself, it doesn’t hold a candle to all that San Diego is.
A certain ex-broadcaster has an opinion of both cities. Just sayin…….
Super hard to find pickup hockey in San Diego, eh Luc.
I lived there for ten years, I don’t recall even 10 minutes of it being boring.
I’m in Denver originally from SD but I need to check out KC. I’ve heard KC is nice
If completed as reported, likely a good deal for the Royals as his first year arbitration number likely takes him to $5M+ and then every year after above the AAV of this deal. Some risk 2019 was a fluke, but even if he’s a league-average hitter as he was in the season of Covid, then there’s little downside. Huge financial upside for the Royals if he hits like 2019 or better.
Dozier is mediocre. Why waste money on him? I just don’t get the MLB. With it’s popularity waning I don’t see how these tiny market teams are going to make payroll.
6-7 mil is nothing. That is fine for an average 3rd baseman
This is a solid signing, as Dozier broke out in 2019 with 26 home runs, 10 triples, and an .870 ops… even in a short 2020 in which he had covid, still managed a 101 ops+ and a huge walk rate. He has borderline elite hard contact rates. If he comes back with another 2019, or even better than 2019, this is a huge bargain for the Royals. And if he doesn’t, then he’s still a solid player for 6m/yr and they can decline the 5th year option.
And that’s still a low amount of money for what you wrongly consider to be a mediocre player
Joe is correct unless KC is willing to spend $200-mil when they are ready to win. Pat KC all you want over an extension for “low” AAV. The Blue Jays fans said the same thing about Grichuk’s extension and now he’s the 4th OF.
KC could have let Dozier walk or deal him midseason. It would not be a loss if he is not with the team two years from now. Poor decision on a very replaceable player at a fraction of the cost.
Except Grichuk is getting paid almost twice as much as Dozier.
Also he has 3 years of control left. The deal is only one free agent year guaranteed.
Joe is not and neither are you as it ignores that Dozier’s projected $6.25 AAV would need to be increased by approximately 65% to reach Grichuk’s $10,333,333 salary that B-R reports for each of the next three seasons, which is roughly the AAV of Grichuk’s original five year deal (including extension) that is more than double the value of Dozier’s. While perhaps Jays fans thought it was a good deal at the time, generally the industry did not view it positively as Grichuk is OBP challenged. Ideally, he’s a DH and maybe a platoon DH at that. I guess that’s the good news as eventually the Universal DH will likely be improved in the NL and that will increase the market for Grichuk if the Jays pay down his salary to a $6-7M AAV. Still more than where Dozier is right now, but it makes Grichuk moveable. Given the choice of the two players, I suspect 30 of 30 GMs, yes, including the Jays, likely take Dozier over Grichuk based on skill and contract. Have zero idea how you think a $6M AAV contract means the Royals are now committing to a $200M AAV for the team.
Why are you comparing 2 players that shouldn’t be under their contracts?
Dozier is about to turn 30. He had a very minor blip season as a 27.5-28 year old in a juiced ball year
That is something you can find on the FA market for a minor league contract, or maybe a million or 2 at most.
But if you really want to talk about Grichuk, fine. Both are 29 years, 190ish days old. Grichuk has 9.8 bWAR over 2707 PA in his career. Dozier has 1.8 bWAR over 1181 PA. Not surprising why one makes more than the other
Troll
Good value for the Royals.
Drayton Moore has shown himself to be one who believes the fandom identifies with certain players. He kept the 15-16 team around too long, provided a soft landing spot for Gordon, etc. KC may indeed be that kind of market.
Whether that kind of thinking is productive is questionable, though. Dozier’s certainly not a bad player; neither is he an especially good one. But the price looks reasonable.
I’m not a Royals fan, but I feel for any small or medium market team. The financials are stacked against them, and—except for the Rays—make it so much harder to compete. Dodger and Yankee fans might like the situation but it sucks for just about everyone else, and MLB better get on the problem sooner than later, or fans will start drifting away. AND 16 team playoffs is NOT the answer.
“Boo hoo, other teams spend more of their hundreds of millions in revenue than my team. We need to ban spending!!”
Listen, my team is one of the wealthiest in the league, with no problem spending. But that doesn’t make the inequities a benefit to the league as a whole. No one ever said “Ban spending.” I simply suggested finding ways to equal the playing field.
The lack of parody alienates fans. Also small market teams that are at a competitive disadvantage have a hard time keeping fans interest or drawing in younger fans. Ultimately it is bad foe the sport. It may be exciting at the moment for fans of teams like the Yankees and Dodgers. However a shrinking fan base will eventually hurt the overall product which will also impact the larger market teams.
Hopefully, you mean PARITY, not parody. I like a good parody (see Spaceballs, Airplane!) as anybody, but I don’t care if I see it at the ballpark.
Yeah, I’m pretty sure that’s what Tigers3232 meant. However, sometimes at the ballpark—if say you’re watching the Orioles or Pirates— parody might now be such a bad thing.
Pete’sView1 hour ago
and—except for the Rays—make it so much harder to compete.
=============================================================
There are plenty of other teams that compete without a lot of fans.
In the last 19 years, MN has won 85 or more 9 times, and made the playoffs 9x.
The Indians, IIRC, have the 2nd best record in BB over the past 5 years.
Oakland has played .599+ 3 years in a row.
Meanwhile, big market teams like the Phillies (9 years in a row), SF (4), (6), continue to miss the playoffs.
More money is always better than less money, but plenty of teams do well or worse, despite the financial situation.
Of course. The quality of management plays a huge part—just look at the Rockies. Or the Marlins under Loria. But when you want to sign or hang on to a player the quality of Lindor or Betts (though Boston has no excuse), it’s teams like the Red Sox, Dodgers, Yankees, Mets, Giants, Cubs, White Sox that have the upper hand because of their market And I’m a Giants fan!
As a Royals fan, I’m perfectly content with where we are. We’re not going to be handing out any $300m contracts in free agency, but in the Dayton Moore era I’ve never felt like money has been a factor in losing / not getting a player we needed or wanted, and I think that’s only going to improve under new ownership. There are challenges, to be sure, but I’m a happy fan.
And I think that’s the way any fan of any team has to frame it. I hope the Royals prosper.
The Twins or an anomaly, nearly all of their bargain veteran FA signings exceeded expectations which is far from the norm. SF has a pretty old roster hamstrung with costly veteran contracts many of which are tied to the years they were contenders. Philly plays in a brutal division and for all the money they ve spent they still lack pitching. CLE did have a nice little window of contention but they did so with many homegrown players, if you havent noticed they were priced out of retaining most of those players.
There are really only 2 teams who have consistently defies the odds and contended regularly on small budgets, the Rays and As.
You have to put Cleveland right there with the Rays and A’s. They still made it to the playoffs last season after dealing away Bauer, Kluber, and Clevinger.
That’s a pretty amazing feat of itself. Any org that can develop pitching like that is always a competitor.
You do realize this is why revenue sharing exists? Big market clubs give money to smaller market clubs to “balance the field”
This money was canceled post 2020, of course, and that is the real reason why so many are crying poor. They’re factoring in how much they lost via revenue sharing “potential profits”
It’s obvious that many who have chimed in on this particular thread rode the Chevy Express van to school as opposed to the International Harvester bus but I digress.
His bat is scary enough, and he is a surprisingly good baserunner too. Nice signing on both sides.
That park is attractive. And the organization was groundbreaking back in the 70s with their player development baseball academy. They’ve got more pitching over there right now than people give them credit for. They’re not a division contender yet, still a year or two away. But I can see them in a division spoiler role this year.
Well said.
This is beyond unnecessary for a guy who is meh and already under team control for 3 more seasons
Good thing it’s not your money
Lazy talking point. You’re allowed to analyze sports contracts even though it’s not your money.
In all fairness, your analysis analysis amounts to the ‘guy is meh’.. Is that not a bit of a ‘lazy talking point’?
His already under team control for 3 years is more of a factor as to why this deal was not needed yet. Like someone else said this is Piscotty/Grichuk all over again.
I know what the metrics say, but as someone who has watched basically every game he’s ever played, I have no memory of ever feeling like he was a bad defender at third (right field is another story). He’s not the second coming of Brooks Robinson by any means, but I would call him a serviceable defender.
Despite Dozier’s lack of defensive chops, his step back in 2020, his age, etc., I don’t have a problem with an extension per se, but a guarantee of 25 million dollars seems like an overpay. A buyout of his 3 arb years and his first FA year at 4 million dollars per season for an overall guaranteed 16 million dollars seems like a much more reasonable deal. Include the team option year for 10 million and you basically have basically the exact deal that Whit Merrifield inked a couple years ago.
You’re crazy. He’d be like $5m next year, then 8 and probably 10+ in his fourth arb year. That’s $23m right there basically getting the fourth year for free.
And I’d say you’re crazy. He’s going to turn 30 this season, and has all of 1 fluke season that still only made him a slightly above average player – a 3.1 bWAR, 2.9 fWAR. Average player is 2.0, All Stars generally around 5.0
So they’re committing 25 million to a 30 year old that has been well below average in 3 of his 4 tries, and only slightly above when he fluked.
Why?
Those are the types you can get off the FA market for nothing. Like the Cleveland guy, Tyler Naquin. He’s a same aged CFer with more playing time and value shown over his career. He signed for nothing, just a minor league contract
TLB2001 – You are not just crazy, but insane to make those kinds of hypothetical arb projections.
Can you name even one organization in baseball other than KC that would have given that exact extension to Dozier, who is a fan favorite in KC? And, like I said, as a Royals fan, I approve of this extension per se, but the truth is, it was a significant overpay.
4/25 for Hunter Dozier is something I can live with. Now we need to get his launch angle back and all will be good. I think ultimately, he ends up at 1st base.
I thought Benni had money on the books?
Dozier basically has a legitimate shot at being the next Mike Moustakas in Kansas City and they practically put up the same numbers in 2020. In 2019 it can be argued Dozer was actually better as he hit for higher average and although Mike had more long balls Dozer had 10 triples to Mike’s 1.
Moustakas just landed a 4 year 64 million I’ll take Dozier for less half the money and love Mike Moustakas!
“Moustakas just landed a 4 year 64 million”
If you mean 15 months ago, I guess that’s correct. But the Reds really overpaid on that one and were competing against themselves for that contract..
“Dozier basically has a legitimate shot at being the next Mike Moustakas in Kansas City”
I generally approve of this extension for Dozier, but in relation to the kind of player that Dozier is (and how the Royals view him), we are talking apples and oranges if we compare to Moose. Moose and Dozier are two totally different kinds of players. Dozier unlike Moose has multiple positional options. A better comparison to Moose would be Soler.
Wait, what?
Moustakas can play 2nd or 3rd at an average level
Dozier plays 3rd extremely poorly, and is best suited for just RF
And the Reds overpaid for Moustakas, but he has 16.8 fWAR over 1170 games, 4700 PA. Hunter has just 2.9 over merely 293 games and 1181 PA.
So at least Moose had something resembling a track record when he signed, and at worst plays premium positions at a respectable level. Dozier hasn’t shown much of anything, despite being on the verge of 30, and is fairly limited to about the easiest position to fill
“Moustakas can play 2nd or 3rd at an average level”
Moose was always negative replacement value at third bag until he was moved to second base, and he is really limited in his range there.
Dozier isn’t “horrible” at any one position, and he is versatile. In fact, he is just close enough to zero replacement at multiple positions that having him play at a different spot each day in the outfield or infield to cover a day off or an injury for someone else to have his bat in the lineup each day is not a terrible idea, e.g. like what was done with Eduardo Nunez or Brock Holt for much of their career.. Moose cannot handle the outfield nor most of the infield on an **everyday** basis. He is an example of why the NL and the Reds need the DH rule.
I’m starting to question if you’re even talking about the same players the rest of us are
Moustakas UZR/150 at 3B,
(-)3.6, 11, 89 g
11.6, 12, 149 g
0.7, 13, 134 g
1.6, 14, 138 g
2.9, 15, 146 g
17.6, 16, 26 g
(-)4.6, 17, 127 g
1.0, 18, 128 g
2.2 UZR/150 career at 3B
He is an average fielding 3B. The only 2 times he was negative were next to the 2 times he was great. For his career it has meant a +25.8 DEF value
Dozier at 3B,
(-)12.5, 18, 37 g
(-)6.5, 19, 100 g
(-)7.9 UZR/150 career at 3B
That is the reason for his (-)15.4 DEF value overall as he has been rather average at 1B and RF (the only other two positions he’s played) …which btw, when you’re limited to 1B/RF, you’re not “versatile” under any definition of the word
So yes, Hunter is a horrible fielding 3B while Moose is an average fielding 3B
WOW – On 2/18/21 MLBTR wrote that,
“Dozier Announces Retirement”
Now, a mere 10 days later,
“Royals, Dozier Agree To Four-Year Extension”
!!!!
(And, YES I DO KNOW !!)
The mlbpa will be posted how the royals fleeced him.. Terrible deal his agent just took.. ugh
Pissed
he stinks… MLBPA LOVES this deal!
Who?
Why bother extending this guy?
KC knows this guy well; you and I don’t know what the scouts and evaluators in the Royals system know. He is a right handed bat who can play the outfield and infield in a pinch (even if he isn’t ideal as an everyday choice at any position other than perhaps 1B). Even into last season, his plate discipline continually improves despite the COVID diagnosis and the effects of that in 2020. He has added upper strength and looks like he could be a big power option for the future. In the vein of a power hitter, he is a tougher out than Soler.
Finally, security. Having the knowledge that he will have some kind of nest egg when his playing days are over will alleviate a lot of pressure (and at his age, qualifying for a ten year pension might be out of the question). And, he fits so well in that locker room. Loved by his teammates.
IMO, he is pretty identical to his cousin Hunter Renfroe. These contracts are more a testament to your faith in the person as in his talent. If you ignore 2020, and think 2019 is more the norm, you have a good contract.
As a RS fan, I wouldn’t mind extending Renfroe slightly.
He’s 30, without a position, and never really shown anything in the MLB
If not for this extention, it was more likely he’d be released and on a minor league contract with the Pirates in 2 years than him up and randomly becoming “a big power option for the future”
I mean, the average ISO in the AL last season was 171, and it was 186 in 2019. Dozier has a 165 last season and 166 in 2018 …and he was doing that in his peak physical age range. So outside of the one fluke where he was merely decent, what indicates he is capable of becoming the good player you claim he is, yet he never has been able to show?
I’m not sure what the new figures are but in 2019 the average salary for an average third baseman was 6.6 mill a year. If he plays average it’s a solid signing.
Now that he’s locked up at a reasonable price I would see if anyone would trade anything decent for him. Witt Jr. can play 3rd and probably very well. Swap Hanser Alberto with Nicky no-hit Lopez and the infield would look pretty solid at the plate.