The reigning AL Central champs moved on from their longtime left fielder, retained their top slugger and improved their defense. They’ll face stiff competition in their quest for a third straight division title, however.
Major League Signings
- Nelson Cruz, DH: One year, $13MM
- Andrelton Simmons, SS: One year, $10.5MM
- J.A. Happ, LHP: One year, $8MM
- Alex Colome, RHP: One year, $6.25MM (includes buyout of 2022 mutual option)
- Matt Shoemaker, RHP: One year, $2MM
- Hansel Robles, RHP: One year, $2MM
- Total spend: $41.5MM
Trades and Claims
- Acquired RHP Shaun Anderson from the Giants in exchange for OF LaMonte Wade Jr.
- Claimed RHP Ian Hamilton off waivers from the Phillies (later outrighted to Triple-A)
- Claimed LHP Brandon Waddell off waivers from the Pirates (later outrighted to Triple-A)
- Claimed RHP Ian Gibaut off waivers from the Rays (later outrighted to Triple-A)
- Claimed OF Kyle Garlick off waivers from the Braves
Notable Minor League Signings
- Keon Broxton, Rob Refsnyder, Tzu-Wei Lin, Danny Coulombe, Andrew Romine, JT Riddle, Tomas Telis, Glenn Sparkman, Luke Farrell, Derek Law, Juan Minaya, Andrew Albers, Chandler Shepherd
Extensions
- None
Notable Losses
- Jake Odorizzi, Eddie Rosario, Trevor May, Tyler Clippard, Sergio Romo, Rich Hill, Matt Wisler, Marwin Gonzalez, Homer Bailey, Alex Avila, Ehire Adrianza, Sean Poppen
For the first time in half a decade, the Twins will open the season with someone other than Eddie Rosario patrolling left field. The homegrown slugger held that spot for the better part of six years, but faced with Rosario’s final raise in arbitration and with multiple high-end prospects on the horizon, the Twins felt that money was better spent elsewhere. The league seemingly agreed, as Rosario went unclaimed on outright waivers before being non-tendered. He’d go on to sign in Cleveland for an $8MM salary that gives him a modest raise over 2020’s $7.75MM mark but still falls shy of what he’d have earned in arbitration.
While it was at least a mild surprise that no club jumped to grab Rosario on outright waivers, the Twins’ decision to move on in some capacity was largely foreseeable. Rosario is a fine player with above-average pop, but given his sub-par on-base skills and rising price tag, the writing was on the wall.
The Twins have two of the game’s top overall outfield prospects, Alex Kirilloff and Trevor Larnach, nearly ready for a long-term audition in the outfield. Kirilloff, who has a chance to make the Opening Day roster, made his big league debut in last year’s postseason and seems to be first in line for the left field vacancy. The Twins also saw former No. 35 overall pick Brent Rooker, a left fielder/first baseman, make his big league debut last year. Jake Cave gives them another option in left should injuries or struggles keep the prospects from taking over.
It may not have surprised as many fans as the Rosario move, but the Twins’ non-tender of righty Matt Wisler was also unexpected. Having plucked the former top prospect off waivers to begin the 2019-20 offseason, the Twins pushed Wisler to throw his slider at a staggering 83 percent clip. The experiment was an unequivocal success, as Wisler turned in a 1.07 ERA and punched out nearly a third of the batters he faced. His 13 percent walk rate was far too high, however, and though his projected arbitration salary wasn’t much more than $1MM, the Twins appeared confident they could replace his production.
With that pair of non-tenders saving $10MM or more, the Twins’ payroll outlook in early December was relatively pristine. Josh Donaldson is earning $23MM annually, but the 2021 projected payroll at that point was a mere $90MM — down from more than $130MM in 2020. The number plummets in 2022, when the Twins have just $48MM in guaranteed contracts on the books.
As such, the Twins had the financial wherewithal to pursue just about any free agent, but it quickly became clear they were focused primarily on one-year additions. Whether the driving factor there was uncertainty about further revenue losses in 2021, the desire to keep a clean outlook for next year’s mega-crop of free agents or a combination of multiple factors, the trend is clear both in the free agents they signed and in the names they pursued.
Minnesota tried for one of the market’s bigger names out of the gate, reportedly making a strong offer for Charlie Morton before he took an early deal with the Braves. The Athletic’s Dan Hayes wrote back in November that the Twins were a “finalist” for Morton, but the righty’s strong preference to pitch near his family home in Bradenton, Fla. has long been known.
Pursuits of Corey Kluber and James Paxton led to similar results. After spending months rehabbing at a facility run by Yankees director of health and performance Eric Cressey, Kluber went to the Bronx. Paxton re-upped with the Mariners, and Seattle GM Jerry Dipoto said afterward that Paxton “wanted to be a Mariner” gave the club a “hometown discount” of sorts on his $8.5MM salary.
The Twins did ultimately add a pair of veterans to the rotation, inking 38-year-old lefty J.A. Happ to a one-year deal worth $8MM and signing righty Matt Shoemaker to a one-year, $2MM deal after an injury-wrecked pair of seasons. In many ways, the signings mirror last winter’s signings of Homer Bailey and Rich Hill. The more expensive of the two additions is designed to stabilize the rotation, while the more affordable one carries more upside and a greater risk of injury. The combined $10MM price point is a dead match with the combined $10MM base salaries of Bailey ($7MM) and Hill ($3MM).
While neither Happ nor Shoemaker gives the Twins a top-of-the-rotation presence, the organizational hope is surely that last year’s breakout from Kenta Maeda gives them the ace-caliber arm they’ve lacked since Johan Santana. Between Maeda, Jose Berrios, Michael Pineda, Happ and Shoemaker, the Twins have a solid Opening Day rotation. Randy Dobnak, Devin Smeltzer and Lewis Thorpe give them a trio of younger options with some big league experience (and a good bit of success, in Dobnak’s case). Right-handers Jordan Balazovic and Jhoan Duran, both top 100 prospects according to FanGraphs and The Athletic, loom in the upper minors and could debut in 2021.
Jake Odorizzi remained on the Twins’ radar for much of the offseason, but his desire for a multi-year deal never seemed to align with the team’s general approach. While the eventual terms of his deal with the Astros may arguably have been a better investment than the one-year deals with Happ and Shoemaker, Odorizzi was reported to be seeking a three-year deal at $13-15MM annually for much of the winter. By the times his asking price dropped, the Twins had signed multiple pitchers and turned the page on the 2019 All-Star.
Looking to the bullpen, the Twins lost nearly their entire setup corps with Trevor May, Sergio Romo, Tyler Clippard and Wisler hitting the market. All four will pitch elsewhere in 2021. In place of that trio, Minnesota signed former division rival Alex Colome to a one-year deal and took a chance on a Hansel Robles rebound. Both have closing experience, and Colome has been particularly effective in terms of ERA over the past couple seasons with the White Sox. Even though Colome’s secondary marks don’t look as appealing as his ERA, it’s hard to find fault with the $6.25MM price tag. He’s expected to share closing duties with holdover Taylor Rogers, who took a slight step back in 2020 but has amassed a generally strong late-inning track record since 2018.
The Twins’ acquisition of righty Shaun Anderson didn’t draw much attention, but he gives the club a spin-rate project on which they can dream. Anderson has elite spin on both his four-seamer and, in particular, his slider. Walks have been a significant problem thus far in his big league career, but Anderson has a pair of minor league options remaining, so the Twins can take their time in trying to shape him into a quality reliever.
In the meantime, the Twins will look for incumbent options to step up. Tyler Duffey broke out as one of the game’s best relievers in 2019-20 (2.31 ERA, 2.72 SIERA, 34.2 K%, 6.1 BB%). Flamethrower Jorge Alcala had a quietly excellent showing in 2020, and righty Cody Stashak is another largely anonymous but highly effective reliever through his first 40 big league frames. Southpaw Caleb Thielbar was tendered a contract in December after a strong season, continuing his emotional comeback effort following a five-year absence from MLB.
On the offensive side of the coin, the main storyline for the Twins entering the winter (beyond Rosario) was whether they’d re-sign veteran slugger Nelson Cruz. A reunion with Cruz was dependent on the universal designated hitter — or the lack thereof. Cruz reportedly sought a two-year contract, while the Twins were steadfast in their preference to keep the commitment to one year. With few AL contenders having the capacity to add a pure DH, however, Cruz seemingly needed the universal DH to be permanently implemented if he was going to create enough market pressure to get to a two-year deal. That still hasn’t happened, and Cruz eventually signed on for a third season at Target Field after the Twins upped their one-year offer to match the AAV from his first two years there.
As noted when previewing their offseason, the Twins didn’t necessarily have a true “need” in the middle infield, but it represented an opportunity to get creative. President of baseball ops Derek Falvey, GM Thad Levine and their front office crew did just that, pursuing one-year pacts with free-agent shortstops Andrelton Simmons and Marcus Semien. When Semien took a larger offer in Toronto, the Twins quickly wrapped things up with Simmons.
In doing so, they secured a historically gifted defender and pushed incumbent shortstop Jorge Polanco to second base. Versatile Luis Arraez will slide into the vacant super-utility role previously held by Marwin Gonzalez, who signed with the Red Sox as a free agent. Arraez, a .331/.390/.429 hitter through his first 124 MLB games, will get into the lineup regularly by filling in around the infield and in left field.
Both Simmons and Polanco have battled significant ankle issues the past two seasons, but the hope is that after a pair of surgeries, Polanco will be back to full strength for the first time since 2018. If Simmons is healthy, he and Josh Donaldson could form one of the game’s best left-side tandems on defense. Polanco has never rated as a strong defensive shortstop, but the Twins feel he can be above-average at second base.
If that’s indeed the case, the Twins could be one of the game’s best defensive clubs. Miguel Sano isn’t going to win any awards for his glovework at first base, but the rest of the infield, combined with strong defenders behind the dish (Ryan Jeffers, Mitch Garver) and elite defenders in the outfield (Byron Buxton, Max Kepler) should be formidable.
The Twins were dealt a tough blow early in Spring Training, when it was learned on report day that some knee discomfort being experienced by Royce Lewis, the No. 1 overall pick in 2017, was due to an ACL tear that will end his 2021 season before it begins. Lewis, widely regarded among the game’s top 30 or so prospects, hurt his knee during offseason workouts and aggravated it when he slipped during the blizzards near his Texas home. He’ll now go more than two years between competitive games, although at just 21 years old, he has youth on his side.
The 2021 Twins have a different feel to them than 2019’s “Bomba Squad,” but this looks to be an improved defensive club with a good bit of thunder in the middle of the lineup and a deep pitching staff. The Indians’ trades of Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco have dropped them a ways back in projections, but improvements on the White Sox roster mean the Twins will still face stiff competition as they look for an AL Central threepeat. Meanwhile, both the Royals and Tigers added some veterans to complement rosters that are seeing the fruits of their rebuilding efforts percolate to the big league level.
This should be the best iteration of the AL Central we’ve seen in years. The Twins have again positioned themselves as clear contenders in 2021 and done so while maintaining the long-term flexibility to be prominent players in next year’s stacked free-agent market.
How would you grade the Twins’ offseason? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors iOS/Android app users)
I think they will be better than the White Sox but that doesn’t rally matter because all they need to do is win a FREAKING playoff game. I’m not even a huge Twin fan and I want them to win a postseason game bad
I like the Twins lineup. Sox have the stronger bullpen. Giolito puts the Sox ahead in starting pitching in a close race. Both Twins and Sox can hit a little. Twins get the nod on the D. Should be a riot this summer. Much improved division overall.
Yep. The Twins back end of the bullpen is really good tho. Duffey, Rogers (Needs a bounce back), and Colome, but I agree WS have more BP depth. If Berrios can take that big step forward that would be huge for the Twins.
Yeah each team has a few guys who, if they step up this year can turn the league upside down. I look at Berrios too as a guy more than capable of advancing to the next level. He is already good but I think he has more in him.
I agree in that but seeing Maeda last year depending on how he does this year, he is better then Giolito and the Sox bullpen has Hendricks so that beats the twins in closing category but in bullpen I’d say pretty equal.
I think they definitely won’t be better then the WhiteSox. But the Twinkies and the Indians will definitely be battling for a Wild Card though. They should be neck to neck all season, just like the Jays and Rays will be for one of those Wild Cards also.
F
How bout complete the roster and compete for a World Series for once ?!? What kind of return could they have got for Buxton when he was #1 prospect in baseball?? How bout Royce Lewis ?? Krilloff slid into top 25 too….
Twins coulda took that 100 mil they gave Donaldson and those 3 shipped em too Colorado for Marquez arenado and story. That would have been a championship caliber team. Instead they are just another central contender pretender
Your name is equivalent to this writing piece
Literally repeated what u said in first comment and then laid out how to win the games u dream they do.
No your an idiot. You saw trade Lewis who is a No. 1 pick? and get rid of Krilloff when he is a top prospect who will make his debut this year, and say trade all those guys for Marquez and Story. Be smart, Story will be an FA so would you rather have a No. 1 pick or a year of a SS who plays in Coors. Also when they sign JD was Story or Marquez on the market….NO. Trading away Buxton? He is good when healthy. I though t was a mistake to sign JD long term but your whole statement was bad.
Um, what? I’m not really sure where you’re going with this. Why didn’t they trade Buxton, Krilloff and Lews? Maybe it’s because they needed them? Buxton is the reuglar CF for them, Lewis, before his surgery, was going to be their starting shortstop by 2022 at the earliest and Krilloff is likley going to be one of the team’s starting outfielders by the end of 2021, heck maybe by the end of May. I wouldn’t be trading Krilloff, Buxton and Lewis for Story and Marquez because this solves one problem to create another. Sure they’d be suring up the infield and a rotation spot, but losing 2 OF’s that could both be starting for the team by the end of May.
Where I’m going is when u have a prospect that will most likely never reach his hyped potential- and is at his peak value- then trade the player for best possible return. You will win every trade as nearly all prospects don’t pan out. Buxton was the top prospect in baseball- twins coulda got a massive haul for the guy. Instead they still have a project. Lewis was top 5 and a #1 overall pick, then his stock fell, and now he’s going to loose a season. Twins coulda flipped him into Luis Castillo ! 100%! Krilloff fell from his peak value too.
Instead of making the tough decisions to put this twin team over the edge – they did nothing and lost 10,000,000’s in prospect value. Perfect formula for never winning a playoff game
You don’t just get rid of prospect like chum. They were the best for a reason, if they do bad that sucks, but they have a better chance to be good and if they are they get a lot of years from them, and cheap.
You can’t run a baseball club, trading every prospect simpily because prospects don’t always work out. That’s one way to make your window of cometition slam shut on you. Yes, I think that you need to make trades to win, but you don’t just go trading prospects assuming that they’ll never pan out. It’s all could’ve would’ve should’ve.
This is especially talking about major league ready talent. So lets say they traded Leiws, Kirilloff and Buxton back in early November for Story and Marquez. This gives them a good shortstop for a guarenteed one season and a good pitcher for 4 seasons. Now who plays center field and left field? What if Story leaves after his one season in Minnesota? Kirilloff will be the starting LF for the Twins by the end of May at the very latest, maybe even begining of May. He’s still a consensus top 30-20 prospect. Buxton is a great CF if he can stay healthy. Big if, but still. Lewis is still 21 years old and did well at the Arizona Fall League and in 2018.
Also, are you saying the only value prospects have is to be trade bait? If you can win every trade because prospects don’t usually pan out, then why would any team want to trade a proven player for a prospect? What’s the point of even drafting well if they’re just going to blow out anyway?
Chum ? A Royce Lewis package that nets you Luis Castillo is chum ? Reds 100% take that offer at height of Lewis value and 100% turn it down today.
And buxton was #1 prospect in baseball. So his ceiling is 30 mil a year on a super star contract. If they would have traded him at height of his value- they’d have 5x or more greater war produced from return. It’s undeniable.
Trade your prospects at their height value Everytime. And you’ll win every single trade.
And @ luc. Dude ur a Yuge twins fan. Own it
Nats fan dud. You obviously have a crush on Dave Dombrowski, you love getting rid of prospects for studs. You don’t know how FO’s work. They thought Buxton was gonna be real good which HE IS, but he’s injury prone.. Clown
Dude can u not carry on a conversation where u don’t insult other people ?
Here’s some stats on real good buxton – in 6 seasons, he’s scored over 50 runs once, over 50 rbi once, and has never hit 20 homers in a season. He’s a career 238 hitter that’s always at the bottom of the twins lineup.
If he’s as good as u say – why haven’t twins extended him ? His arbitration is almost up and he’s a buy low candidate- so why hasn’t Minnesota locked him up for several more seasons ?? Maybe bc they deem him as a bust too ?
He’s hit better the last two seasons and they’ve been trying to sign him to an extension.
Buxton who has been hurt may not want an extension because he is trying to build his value. If he stays healthy he will get more, sorry for my insults
It’ll be a tight race, but I see the Twins finishing on top. The Sox will have a battle on their hands with Cleveland for 2nd.
I’m really interested to see if Robles bounces back. I know he missed the adrenaline he hit pitching in front of a crowd. If he pitches like he did in 19, the Twins have a steal.
Twins and white Sox are only two teams in the division with consistent offense and will battle for first. Cleveland has pitching but little bats. KC added some risky additions, and could surprise if some one slides. Detroit is hurting for offense. They won’t be push overs, but last is likely unless KC has all their gambles go south.
Why is going south bad? Another description for failure and or bad luck is needed besides “going south”.
People will really complain about anything lol
You must be kidding. “Going south” is a common expression, probably as “old as the sun.” Is it that you’re a southern lion and you hate being dissed? Also, every direction from Minnesota is south.
Twins are frustrating, they got a really good team but seems to avoid making the moves that can possibly put them over the top, The offense and the defense will make up for the shortcomings on the pitching side (Which is average) and still slight favorites for the division, but if the Twins want to make a deep postseason run or just even win a game, they really need to find a TOR arm and another strong bullpen arm too.
FO needs to go all in at the deadline this year.
They already have a TOR arm in Maeda. I don’t believe last year was a small sample size fluke. He was always underrated on the Dodgers. That being said, I would gladly take another TOR arm because you can never have too much pitching.
Definitely agree on the BP arm though. They need at least one, maybe even two.
I’m not worried about the offense and most positions have a capable backup when injury arises.
The first three SP’s are solid. I’m not as sold on Happ or Shoemaker. I’d feel more comfortable with Dobnak in the rotation which I never thought I’d say. Not that Dobnak has ever been horrible I just was never part of his hype train. If he can get more K’s I’d like him a lot more.
BP I am the most concerned about. I am good with Duffy, Rogers and Colome. I’m not fully confident in Alcala but I want to be. He needs to walk fewer guys though. Past that my confidence is about zero. If Thorpe makes the team then I’d add him to my good list because I’ve always liked him and he seems to be in a way better mindset this year. Wouldn’t mind Thorpe in the rotation either if he keeps pitching like he has.
The BP has been underrated the last two years. I think they’re going to take a hit this year and won’t nearly be as good unless a few guys surprise.
Twins will wish they left the DH spot open for Donaldson to be there in 2021. JD needs to DH more. That was the price they paid by signing him. Could be wrong and JD plays 150 games at 3B but I doubt it.
Twins are just a decent team in a bad division.
could they just hide Cruz in LF for a few games? I know he’s the DH for a reason but him having played mostly DH over the past few years perhaps makes it less of an injury risk to throw him out there at times.
I doubt they want to put Cruz out in left unless its an emergency. If Miguel Sano is struggling, why not move him to the bench and start getting Donaldson reps at 1B occasionally?
that makes sense, though with Donaldson’s injury history you could argue that he’s still a solid injury risk there.
I think once they locked up Donaldson it was the end for Cruz and the money should have been allocated elsewhere. Problem is Cruz is still their best offensive force. In a weird way the re-signing of Cruz makes the Donaldson deal look kinda bad. As a Jays fan I know JD needs to DH more often than he has.
Simmons is an underrated addition. Defense, particularly in the middle infield really hurt the Twins the last two post seasons. I’m skeptical about their starting pitching, particularly the depth but the defensive upgrade helps and they should be good enough with the offense they have.
Pitching is ultimately THE major factor of a teams success….or lack thereof.
As I mentioned in a comment about the Mets – hitting doesn’t support the pitchers, defense does.
Extremely impressed with the signing of Simmons, which helps at both SS and 2B. With Buxton in CF the Twins are fortified up the middle. Am not as big on their C’s calling games and handling the staff, but they’re far from the disasters many teams have.
Twins look like favorites in the ALC to me. Comes down to playing smart fundamental baseball – if so they can succeed not only in the division, but to some degree in the playoffs as well. Am sure they left something in reserve for transactions during the season, they’ll be fine. Sharp FO. ALC getting very good.
The Twins are NOT improved over last year. I like Matt Shoemaker and Adrelton Simmons but overall the losses are greater than the acquisitions. Especially Eddie Rosario and the many pitchers such as Jake Odorizzi, Tyler Clippard, Trevor May…
Most Twins fans are glad that Rosario is gone. Kirilloff is expected to far exceed Rosario’s flashes of brilliance mixed with blunders and bone-headedness.
Watching Rosario play was maddening. Sitting right behind him in the lower level in left watching him hardly try catching the ball. Lot’s of Eddie fans, but he wasn’t that good.
I am a Twins fan, so might be biased one way or the other, but I gave them a B. Moving on from Rosario was an obvious move to anybody who has been watching him play the past few seasons. Should have happened at the trade deadline, to be quite honest, but I can only imagine that they tried to shop him and found out that the market for him was really small. Signing Simmons is the best move of theirs this off-season, in my opinion. The roster flexibility is incredibly valuable, and Simmons is far and away the best defensive shortstop of his generation. Plus, he is a capable bottom-of-the-order hitter, at least in his best years. Arraez has really intriguing offensive upside and Gonzalez frankly has started to look a bit past his peak, so I think this will work out nicely. Obviously Cruz is a big retention, too. I wouldn’t be surprised if he finally regressed a bit, but he should still be better than league average at the plate, and if the Twins get more out of Donaldson and Dani especially, we won’t notice it. All that said, they didn’t do much beyond confuse the hell out of me with the pitching. I would rather see May and Wisler back than what they did with the bullpen, and to be honest, if they are not going to get a big name added to the rotation, I would rather they just go all in with one of their younger options than continue to hand one year deals to aging vets. All in all, it’s a B off-season for me…an A on everything other than pitching, and a C on pitching, so averages to a B.