The Washington Nationals have famously fielded top-heavy rosters typically built around a core of strong starting pitching. Since Washington’s first playoff appearance in 2012, they’ve advanced to postseason play five times in nine years, always on the backs of their starting pitching. The starting pitching units on their playoff teams (2012, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2019) ranked 1st, 1st, 2nd, 4th, and 3rd in the Majors by FIP and 5th, 2nd, 1st, 2nd, and 1st by fWAR. Gio Gonzalez, Jordan Zimmermann, Tanner Roark, Max Scherzer, and Stephen Strasburg each posted multiple 3.0+ fWAR seasons for Nats’ playoff teams, and Patrick Corbin is halfway there after a 4.7 fWAR season in 2019.
On the position player side, a core of Bryce Harper, Jayson Werth Ryan Zimmerman, and Ian Desmond added Anthony Rendon in 2014. They morphed by swapping Daniel Murphy and Trea Turner into the core group for Desmond and Werth by 2016. Before 2019, this unit faced their most monumental change yet, letting Harper leave for Philly as Juan Soto developed in his place. Rendon left after the title team in 2019, and it’s now been three years since Zimmerman aka “Mr. National” played a central role in the offense.
Present day, the Nats’ offensive core is a smaller unit than it’s been in year’s past, but it might be the strongest foundation of a Nationals team to date. Soto is one of the best offensive players in the game, compared today to Ted Williams by the Athletic’s Jayson Stark. Turner is one of the game’s most dynamic and underrated superstars.
Victor Robles certainly seemed like a key member of this core unit in 2019, and they hoped Carter Kieboom might step into Rendon’s place at the hot corner, but neither cemented their place in the inner circle during a rough 2020 season. The slow ascent of Kieboom and Robles has made Soto and Turner all the more important to the Nats’ future. Beyond their obvious talents, at 22 and 27 years old, they’re the youngest ties to the 2019 title team.
Starting pitching has been this team’s past, but Scherzer is 36, Strasburg is 32 and twice lost seasons to injury, and Corbin is 31. Their top prospects are a couple of power arms in Jackson Rutledge and Cade Cavalli, and Cole Henry, Andry Lara, Jeremy De La Rosa, and Tim Cate provide some backing in that regard, but there’s much uncertainty in projecting arms. The Nationals future seems to lie in the hands of Soto, Turner, and to a lesser extent, Robles and Kieboom.
The clock is ticking, however, and the cost is rising. Turner will make $13MM this season with one more year of arbitration before free agency after 2022. Soto became arbitration eligible for this first time this winter as a Super Two player. He’ll make $8.5MM in 2021 with three more turns through arbitration before free agency after 2024. He’ll be just 26 years old.
The conversation inevitably turns to potential extensions, and there have been internal discussions about what it might cost to lock their two superstars into long-term deals. In fact, there will be long-term contract offers on the table in the near future, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post (via Twitter).
They’ve made offers in the past, however. Per MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato (via Twitter), GM Mike Rizzo said earlier today, “We’ve discussed internally with ownership about it. We’re in the midst of making decisions on what a timeframe would look like … We certainly have made & will make a long-term extension offer to both players sometime in the near future.”
Since the Braves extended Ronald Acuña Jr. to a well-below-market eight-year, $100MM extension, and the Padres extended Fernando Tatis to a 14-year $340MM extension, Soto might be the best young player without a long-term deal in place. Acuña signed his deal after winning Rookie of the Year with a 4.3 bWAR season in 111 games. Tatis signed after two years of service time and 7.0 bWAR through 143 total games. Soto has just 0.143 more service time than Tatis, but he’s begun the arbitration process, played in 313 games, won a World Series, and accrued 9.7 bWAR. How much will it cost to extend the next Ted Williams? That’s a difficult question, especially when he’s represented by Scott Boras.
If there’s any organization comfortable dealing with mega-agent Boras, it’s the Nationals, who have dealt with him over the years both to sign long-term deals in the case of Strasburg and Scherzer and to not sign those deals with Harper and Rendon. The Nats should have a pretty clear idea about what it would take to sign Soto – or if it’s even possible.
As for Turner, the CAA client might want to wait and see how next winter’s free agent market shakes out. One way or another, a market price will be set for star shortstops as Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez, Carlos Correa, Marcus Semien, Trevor Story, and Corey Seager all sign new contracts. If he does wait, 2021 could be a make-or-break season for Turner. While he’s flashed tremendous potential, he’s also dealt with injuries that have cut short some of his most productive seasons. He finished 7th in MVP voting during the shortened 2020 season.
Xander Bogaerts signed a six-year, $120MM extension in April 2019 with the Red Sox, which could be used as a comparison point. You can check MLBTR’s Extension Tracker to find your own comps. Bogaerts – a Boras client – signed after 5.046 days of service time at 26 years old with 759 games and 15.6 bWAR under his belt. Turner is at 4.135 days of service time right now. He’ll be in the territory of Bogaerts’ 5.046 service time days by the time he turns 28-years-old in June. At present, Turner has notched 541 games and 16.6 bWAR.
One thing we know about Washington and long-term deals is that money will have to be deferred. That said, they’ve shown willing to spend high-end money for the right players. Even though they’ll pay Strasburgh $35MM a season through 2026, and Corbin escalating salaries of $23.4MM, $24.4MM and $35.4MM through 2024, the Nats have some long-term payroll flexibility. Schezer’s $42MM deal comes off the books after this season, as does deals for Brad Hand, Starlin Castro, Daniel Hudson, Yan Gomes, Jon Lester, Alex Avila, Josh Harrison, and Zimmerman. They can also takes a $3MM buyout for Kyle Schwarber over an $11MM option. That’s a total of $73.6MM that could come off the books following 2021. Of course, in that circumstance, Rizzo would also have to back-fill nine roster spots.
LETS GO!!!! I really want Trea first because I know Scott Boras will rip the piece of paper that Soto will get. Trea + Soto equal best duo. Is 8/200 mil to much for Trea?
Nope not too much IMHO. He is a vastly underrated player.
i’m not sure an 8 year deal would be in Trea’s interests or of interest. just my opinion of course.
but he’s 27 now. will turn 28 this summer. an 8 year deal would have his contract ending at age 35 going into a season where he turns 36. not an optimum time to be looking for a new contract for an infielder. he does remind me a little of a faster Robin Yount though and he has played some OF so he may eventually move to the OF? but i would think that he and his agent would lean towards a shorter contract or a longer contract not that ugly 36 year old contract period.
He just signed a $13 mill 1 year deal and has one more ARB year left.
I’d throw a suggestion out at a 5 year extension. Buy out his final ARB year at $18 mill. and add in 4 additional years at $22, $24, $26 and $28. 5 year extension at $118. They will turn it down, but it’s a starting place. Settle on a 6 year $150 mill?
I wonder if it will be 1 or the other or will they try get both? I doubt Soto signs unless it comes in at more money than Tatis deal.
I think Scott Boras only lets him sign more if it’s more than Trout. He is the only player that can go past him as of now,
I love people that think boras decides if his players sign or not.
I know he doesn’t but what is the point of having an agent. Soto will try to get the best deal he can get and Boras will help him with that. If Soto wants an extension Boras will help that. Soto is focused on playing not an extension.
I love people that think players sign Scott Boras to not listen to him
Soto = Employer Boras = Employee if soto says get it done Boras’ job is to get the most money in an extension he can
Obviously… but if you think he joined Boras to not listen to him youre not paying attention….
You may be right. I think they decided on Strasburg instead of Rendon. They signed for the same number and years but Strasburg’s contract includes 80 million deferred. It’s entirely possible Rendon wouldn’t have gone for it..
Soto is god
How far is WSH going to defer Soto’s deal? Are we lookin’ at a new “Bobby Bonilla deferred deal” in place where his grandchildren gather around the proverbial mailbox once a day per year to see his check roll in?
The Nats won’t care if it is Bobby Bonilla money if he plays like “Ted Williams” or just a great player.
In late 2018 as people were talking about Bryce Harper – superstar – and how the Nationals could not win without him, I’d been watching a lot of Nationals games and saw a 19 year-old that was already a better player then Harper. Wrote that here (19 years-old yet he had the common sense to choke up an inch and cut down on his swing with 2 strikes). Naturally got a lot of flag with people saying I was exaggerating.
Turner and Soto join the 3 starters as the keys to the Nationals. Real superstars that impact on O, D, and the bases (shamed Harper enough to work on his fundamentals the past 2 years….and he’s gotten noticeably better).
Good to see both of them getting the recognition without have to be hot dogs that play to the crowd and the baseball challenged media. Do consistent smart baseball, no soap opera controversy, just try to help their team to win each game.
Lerner’s have a good relationship with Boras. They’ll get this done.
Its nice that Harper had someone a little older to look up to once Soto arrived.
Soto’s hitting is tremendous, but he’s not much of a fielder. Still worth a ton of money.
Juan Soto getting a Tatis Jr type contract?
Way more. He is the only player that can probably match Trout money
Acuna could but Atlanta was smart and locked him up for 1/4 of what it’s gonna cost the Nats to sign Soto
That Acuna deal is the most team-friendly deal ever, considering his value and the way pay has skyrocketed for superstars.
Boras clients to sign extensions?
I know of Weaver, who wanted to stay home. Boras wasn’t happy about it but worked at Jered’s request.
Strasburg signed an extension before he hit F/A too.
That was a big surprise. I think it came just before his last year on the deal.
Weaver. Carlos Gonzalez. Stephen Strasburg. Xander Bogaerts most recently. It’s rare, but if the player wants the deal, he’ll take the deal. Boras isn’t going to withhold a nine-figure offer from one of his clients, even if he advises them they’re better off going year to year.
Thank you. I knew there were a handful, just couldn’t think of any beyond Weaver this morning.
Reaching long term deals now would put the Nationals into 2021 luxury tax territory. That shouldn’t be a make or break part of the equation. But the team has been reluctant to cross that line the last few seasons — including during their 2019 WS run.
Getting both players signed long-term would be amazing for the Nats, but when do all those deferrals start to hurt the team? I believe they’re still paying Rafael Soriano for heavens sake. And the comment that they get Scherzers contract off the books; they don’t. He’s still owed the same amount they’ve been paying him ($15M per year) every year for the next 7 years. And there are several other examples. At some point, they’re not going to be able to maintain it.
I think it comes off the luxury tax once the original contract ends. Even though they only paid him $15 million, his luxury tax hit was $30
million based off the AAV. Likewise, the $15 million-per-year they’ll continue to owe him won’t count against their tax nor will it factor into any future contract he may sign with the Nats or another team.
Nationals tapped out?
Stop.
The Nationals are the new Yankees. In any socialist 3rd world country the most prosperous city is the capital. That’s where the money is. IRS statistics show that the 5 wealthiest counties by income in America surround Washington, DC. (not Silicon Valley, not NYC / Hamptons / Wall Street, not LA entertainment center, not wealthy areas of Texas). Your tax dollars pay for National’s tickets. Whether a government agency buys them directly and gives them out to employees; or lobbyist firms / consulting companies buy them as entertainment write-off’s to take bureaucrats to games in an attempt to get bloated government contracts. Sure, individual fans in DC buy some tickets. But most of them work for the government….and it ain’t for $30k a year…..and they get paid in full if they stay home due to COVID…..not laid off hoping to find something for a fraction of what they used to make.
In short – the Nationals can double-plus the price of their tickets and Pay-TV charges, and it would be surprising if they lost many customers. At some point the Nationals will pay whatever luxury tax they need to….the taxpayers and money printing will handle it. The Nationals are the real “America’s Team”.
Deferred money is better than non-deferred.
Would you rather pay someone $30M now or $15M now and $15M in seven years? The deferrals save the team money.
Yes. Its known as the “time value of money”
Yes this is true. However if you defer money in 3/4/5 contracts at a time, that deferral amount can become a significant “extra” fee they will pay for guys no longer helping them. If they hit a losing streak or their player development dries up, that money becomes a real potential roadblock. Pretending an extra 30-40M a year isn’t impactful is just naive
Just holding off until they get a TV deal that pays them.
Let me know when a player bats .400, flies fighter planes in a war, leads his team to the World Series, flies fighter planes in another war, then hits .388 at the age of 39. Comparing any baseball player to that is just silly. But the writers seem to have lots of free time for their nonsense. Can Soto fish?
“Free time”, lol. Writers get paid to compare and speculate.
I’m not sure what flying fighter planes or fishing have to do with evaluating a player’s baseball skills, which is what writers are doing. Ted Williams was an incredibly impressive person, but we’re just focusing on his baseball skills.
Can we get a SpongeBob, 5 Minutes Later transition?
I think Soto could get 15/500m extension. 5m raises through arbitration then 37m for 12 years. Would put him at 16/508 for his total contract.
Sounds like there might be a record set for deferred money.
Soto has a hitting skill set that will age like fine wine. He doesn’t strikeout much to start with and he draws walks at an insane rate. He isn’t an all-or-nothing power hitter. He’s a modern day Ted Williams. The only major risk that they’d be taking is his already mediocer defense deteriorating as he ages. But that shouldn’t even be much of a worry if the DH returns so he can split his time there and LF as he slows down.
Of the players I’ve seen, he reminds me of George Brett the way he approaches his at=bats. He has the same kind of swagger in how he sizes up the pitcher and dictates how the at-bat is going to go. He is in total control; of the situation, especially in the clutch. And like Brett, he can carry a team regardless of the strength of the lineup around him. By carrying, I mean all season long. A tremendous hitter who is still several years from reaching his peak. It’s a thrill to watch him bat.
Only Nelson Cruz and Justin Verlander age like fine wine. Respect boundaries.
Here’s something else that has aged like fine wine: the 2011 video of Nellie ranging back toward the right field wall as David Freeze’s triple went over his head.
Sorry, Rangers29. I couldn’t resist.
Or the ball bouncing of Jose Canseco’s head and going over the wall.
They both gonna leave in free agency once the Yankees or the Angels throw money at them.
yeah with the absolutely incredible lockdown starting rotation the Angels have, im sure thats what they need….more bats.
If the price of poker were 12yrs@ 37 per (or even close) following arb seasons, they’d just wait to bid crazy when he is a FA.
Soto > Tatis
Hitting-wise, yes. But Soto is a middling OF while Tatis is a solid SS.
I’m not sure who is more valuable, but a Soto extension would give us a clue.
If you aren’t going to offer all the coins in Scrooge McDucks vault then don’t bother approaching Soto. That’s going to be a monster of a deal.
Juan Soto: 20/$1B.
Oh, lordd…
Front load both as much as you can to 2022….they won’t be playing anyway.
Soto might be better than Tatis, but I watched SD over the weekend. That CJ Abrams kid SCREAMS tools, all over the place. 5 tools, all VERY loud.
Don’t know how it’s going to translate, but that young man is going to be HUGE.
Now that’s the kind of scuttlebutt I frequent this site for.
This is a golden age for great young players in Major League Baseball. Maybe even THE golden age. People who claim baseball is going downhill don’t know what they’re talking about. These players are not only talented and productive but have a flair to their game that connects with young people. The challenge for MLB is to successfully market what these players bring to the table. The game is set up to generate international interest the way the NBA has.
One thing I would like to see , is more minor league games on TV, so we can really follow the top prospects and future super stars from the beginning, kids like to see kids playing too, allow more prospects to play in winter ball and televise those games more , make it a bigger deal.
I would be all-in on televised winter ball.
The writer states in part: “That’s a total of $73.6MM that could come off the books following 2021. Of course, in that circumstance, Rizzo would also have to back-fill nine roster spots.” Lots of writers are always trying to reason that the team can easily afford to sign x awesome player for mega millions because so much money is coming off the books after given year. But the players contracts that are up either have to be re-signed or replaced sometimes for more money than they received in their original contracts – so sometimes not as easily done as suggested; just sayin’
If an organization is doing its job drafting, signing, and developing young talent, then those players can be replaced internally. That’s how the best teams do it. It’s a major part of their roster-building strategy. Teams aren’t built through free agency.
The only big money contract ending this year is Scherzer. As stated in the article the Nationals have a few top prospects they’re hoping to eventually use to backfill into the rotation.
The one piece they’re probably missing is catcher. The Nats will need to resign Gomes or Avila or look to the FA market. Otherwise it’s mostly just replacing bullpen & bench players.
Juan needs to get paid more than Tatis & Betts
So ummmm..this is kind of awkward but umm.. can someone please blindfold Acuna and put ear plugs in his ears.
Trea Turner deserves the big contract and honestly if the Padres would’ve just kept him and flipped him over to second they could’ve had the greatest baseball team since the late 90s Yankees. Preller didn’t believe the guy would develop defensively/have enough arm to be a star shortstop. The one big smh of Preller era but at least we got Wil Myers still.
I don’t think Boras will let Soto sign an extension, he will tell him to play it out until FA but the Nats know not only how talented he is and that he will continue to sell tickets but just look at the pipeline he is creating with the Dominican Academy. Armando Cruz and Cristian Vaquero both signing with the Nats and both will be future stars. They can continue to build that pipeline of Dominican kids that will grow up Nats fans hoping to get an offer by the Nats, that is the biggest thing Soto will bring to the Nats.
I’m a huge Nats fan. Would love to see both of them stay with the team long term, but that’s gonna take a ton of money. I just don’t see how the numbers can work. Strasburg’s and Corbin’s contracts have to be factored in too.
If I had to pick one, it’s got to be Soto. Every AB is must-see with that kid. He looks like a generational talent, and he’s still getting better!!!
Soto, hold off for the stupid, stupid payday