George Springer, Marcus Semien, Liam Hendriks, Lance Lynn….it seemed that for much of the offseason, the news out of the AL West focused on what stars were leaving the division, rather than joining. It has made for an intriguing divisional race as we approach Opening Day, so let’s run down the contenders as per Fangraphs’ projected standings.
The Astros are judged to be the best of the bunch, projected for an 89-73 record despite losing Springer, potentially losing other still-unsigned free agents (i.e. Josh Reddick, Roberto Osuna), and losing Justin Verlander last season to Tommy John surgery. On the plus side, the Astros brought a couple of key offensive players back into the mix by re-signing Michael Brantley and Yuli Gurriel, and they added Jake Odorizzi to a bolster an injury-hampered rotation. There are certainly some question marks on Houston’s roster, but the core group of talent might be enough to capture the division.
Clocking in with an 84-78 projection, matching this record would give the Angels their fourth-highest win total since 2012 — Mike Trout’s first full season in the big leagues. The Halos’ inability to build a winner around their superstar has been a sore point for both Orange County fans and perhaps the baseball world at large, but comparatively speaking, the Angels also didn’t suffer as many major personnel losses this winter as their division rivals did. While the Angels didn’t make any blockbuster acquisitions, they did aim to get better, adding such second-tier veterans as Raisel Iglesias, Jose Quintana, Alex Cobb, Jose Iglesias, Dexter Fowler, and Kurt Suzuki. With Trout and Anthony Rendon anchoring the lineup and Shohei Ohtani perhaps healthy again, do the Angels have enough to finally get back to the postseason?
The reigning AL West champion Athletics are projected for a modest 83-79 mark, as Oakland lost some significant veteran talent in Semien, Hendriks, Robbie Grossman, Joakim Soria, and Tommy La Stella. Of course, the A’s have made a habit of overachieving in the Billy Beane era, and they do have a lot of promising young arms. If the pitching staff can healthy and even a couple of hurlers make the proverbial leap, the A’s might have one of the sport’s better rotations. On the offensive side, Oakland is hoping Elvis Andrus thrives with a change of scenery, and that Matt Chapman and Matt Olson hit a bit more like their usual selves.
If the three front-runners all have their weak spots, is there an opportunity for an underdog to emerge? Fangraphs doesn’t thinks so, as both the Mariners (74-88) and Rangers (72-90) are projected to fall well back of the pack, yet it isn’t as if either team is bereft of talent. Seattle has a lot of promising young players that could possibly break out early and help Marco Gonzales, Kyle Seager, and bounce-back candidate James Paxton steal some wins. The Rangers made some interesting additions in Dane Dunning, Nate Lowe, and David Dahl, plus you figure Texas is due for some better offensive luck considering virtually the entire team (even star Joey Gallo) had down years at the plate in 2020.
So, the question remains, who will end up as AL West champions? (Poll link for app users)
julyn82001
Go A’s!!!
Orangepanther
Astros will win the West.
aladdinlee
You please don’t give us, Angels fans, false hopes of a playoff berth. Please, don’t.
angelsfan4life
I’m not saying that the Angels will make the playoffs. All I’m saying, is there is no clear cut front runner in the AL West. I still believe that the A’s will win the division. But they won’t be winning 90+ games this year.
Asfan0780
A’s have basically the same roster as last season other than shortstop semien to andrus, relievers hendriks, soria to rosenthal, romo, and left field from grossman to canha/brown/Tom. If andrus isn’t healthy that’s a major risk.
tjmacari
I think Oakland will win 90+ if they stay relatively healthy.
They lost Hendriks and Soria but gained Rosenthal, Kolarek, Romo, and a healthy Puk
They lost Semien and Davis (worst player in MLB last 2 years) but gained Moreland, Andrus, and Lowrie.
Their players all gained a year if experience as well.
Obviously Lowrie would be a bonus if he is healthy, but Pinder at 2B isn’t bad either (same as last year).
They win 97 in 2018, 97 in 2019, and their 36 over 162 last year is… 97. Last year Semien was awful, Davis was beyond awful, Montas was awful, Piscotty was awful, Olson had a down year, and Chapman missed a ton of games, and they still kept a .600 win pct.
I’m guessing 93-69 in 2021
Asfan0780
I think playing only west division teams helped boost their record some but as mentioned a lot of their players also underperformed
turner24
I could definitely see the A’s going 93-69 except I don’t think it will happen since injuries are likely to be at a high this season since everyone is going from a 60 to 162 game season.
Also, the AL West was arguably the worst division in the AL, only division other than us that’s worse is NL Central, but the A’s had to face the Rangers who aren’t great, Angels and Mariners were below .500 as well and Astros were too but injury plagued.
I think its Astros or Angels, but depends how injuries effect teams this year.
Fever Pitch Guy
Worst player in MLB the last 2 years? Clearly you mixed up Khris Davis with Chris Davis. I will not believe Oakland is for real until I see them win an ALCS game, something they haven’t done since 1992. What other AL team can say that? Beane and Moneyball have been highly overrated, obviously.
dbisawesome
87-75
tjmacari
Haha that’s like saying he wasn’t the WORST, he was only the 8th WORST!!!! j/k – Regardless, Khris Davis has been absolutely BRUUUUUUUUUTAL the last 2 years. That was addition by subtraction. He ended up being a DH who couldn’t crack the lineup anymore. Good luck to him in Texas
Guyh
Never to late to join us lol, Go Dodgers
martevious
Don’t worry. The Angels aren’t going anywhere.
mlb9229
Hey, the Rangers are at least worthy of an answer choice on this one! (Unlike the Pirates on the NL Central poll)
DarkSide830
Mariners fan, eh?
youcannnnnputitontheboard
No, the Rangers might be more GB from whoever wins the division.
Platypus
I think the A’s will win. I like that rotation ands think the lineup will be fine.
Mariners world series champs 2025! S’co M’s
Stevil
My gut says Yankees.
EasternLeagueVeteran
Is that the OaklandYankees or the Los Angeles Yankees of Anaheim? It can’t be the Houston Yankees because no Yankee fam would ever root for a team from Houston. Isn’t that right? And certainly not the Texas Yankees because that is an oxymoron.
Stevil
Way to read into that too far.
Halohonk007
Angels finally win a playoff berth.
BuddyBoy
Not happening. Angels finish fourth at 75 wins
FletcherFan60
ok bud
PutPeteinthehall
Angels not winning anything. Won’t hit 80 wins.
passed_balls
Actually think Angels have a good chance to finish dead last in the division. Pitching looks atrocious.
Ace of Diamonds
Actually the pitching in ST looks really good. Bundy has a zero ERA so far this spring and Ohtani looks super great. You should know he struck 5 A’s in 1 2/3 innings.
Luc (Soto 3rd best in the game)
LOL ST stats, and you forgot to mention Ohtani was 2020 Ohtani in his last outing
cookmeister 2
lol stat line doesn’t look great, but half of that outting only happened after Adell missed a fly ball.
Ace of Diamonds
Ohtani was recovering from TJS and knee surgery, He has thrown 100 mph, and his curve ball is incredible this spring, but his splitter is absolutely unhittable. He is hitting:
.579/.571/1.211/1.782 this spring with 4 HR. 2 HR over the batters eye; 468′ and 464’…
Ohtani is back healthy and ready to take on the world of baseball…
JoeW 2
well. pencil angels in then.
martevious
Uh…no way. The Angels simply aren’t good.
psarg
I think the Astros win the West, then the A’s could grab a Wild Card spot. Angels will be above .500, and the Mariners will take a big step forward once Kelenic and Gilbert are up. Wishing Joey Gallo could take Texas to a playoff spot, but he may just get traded at the deadline (Cardinals, get on it)
R.D.
Texas is gonna have the worst AL record by a wide margin. Detroit and Baltimore are much more complete teams comparatively.
BlueSkies_LA
Got to admire the optimism of the 3% of poll respondents who picked the Rangers to win the division.
Very Barry
The Los Angeles Angels will be your 2021 AL West champions. If you are a gambler …… I am giving you free money here.
BuddyBoy
More like dead money
Prospectnvstr
I think the Astros finish on top. Followed by the potential wild card Angels. The A’s & the kids in Seattle finish tied for 3rd/4th and the Rangers come in last.
Halo11Fan
All I know is the Angels would have had a much better chance had they signed those RPs instead of the As.
Ohtani-san
Angels are primed to shock the division!
DGHalos714
Come on Halos…let’s do this! Time to turn this ship around. I feel the moves we made helped but like always…pitching will make or break the season. Stay healthy guys!
prov356
So far this spring, the Angels’ pitching looks pretty good. Bundy is back at it, Cobb and Quintana have pitched well, and Ohtani seems healthy. Heaney and Canning need to find another gear this season. I think the BP is better than last year. They might surprise the critics this season if the pitching keeps it up and stays healthy.
BuddyBoy
Spring training = worthless numbers
Angels Starters = 4th place
PutPeteinthehall
Watch for Ohtani to get mismanaged by Joe the bungler and to hit the DL again.
Ace of Diamonds
If this site was allowed to give thumbs down, I would give a hand with 5 thumbs…
Chester Copperpot
Now, that’s bold. You think the M’s are a better team this year than the Angels? I don’t think so, but we’ll see.
prov356
Haworth – I’m sure if Angels pitching was struggling in Spring Training, you’d be the first to point out how crappy they are.
Yankee Clipper
Prov356, how are you my friend? They’re looking good so far, and I think the Halos have the roster construction to take the West, if they can stay healthy.
prov356
Hey Clipper! Things are good. Got through the Nashville global warming ice storm unscathed.
Health is always the downfall for the Angels. I think our depth is better than it’s been in a while so we will see. Hopefully those two minor league arms are the only TJ recipients this year. I agree that we have the roster to make a run for the division title.
Yankee Clipper
Lol… I hear ya. Well, I’m certainly glad to hear it though – ice storms can be terrible to deal with, especially if lasts and affects power lines, heavy branches, causes structural damage/roof leaks, etc.
Yeah you all are in a very similar spot as NY with pitching – could be good, but could end up real bad too.
Best of luck to you this year, I’d love to see how the postseason Trout rakes at the plate.
mlb1225
I really want to see the Angels make the playoffs this year, whether that be through leading the division or a Wild Card spot, I just want to see it. They don’t have the best pitching in the league, but it definitley could be a lot worse. Canning, Quintana and Heaney aren’t world beater pitchers by any means, but at the very worst are league average. Hopefully, if Bundy does regress, it isn’t too much and he’s still a 3.5 ERA/FIP pitcher. I hope to see Ohtani at least pitch some. Even if that’s only 20-25 starts, 100-150 innings, but it’s a big ‘if’. The bigger question is going to be the bullpen. Iglesias and Mike Mayers make a solid 1-2 punch at the back end, but it really lacks depth.
YourDreamGM
1 Trashtros
2 Athletic’s
3 Angels
4 Mariners
5 Rangers
Trashtros still have a solid lineup. Couple of guys seem to have declined so no longer great but still good lineup.
Not expecting Oakland to make playoffs. Possible but I think wild cards will come out of East or Central.
I don’t see the Rangers getting over 70 wins. They are in the running for the number 1 pick with Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
D*ckin the dog
Angels World Series Champs!
BenjiB24
Go Mariners!
RobBoSoxNMariners
I’m with ya man. This is my pick in the west too. They have a good rotation, a decent bullpen (but some trade deadline additions can solidify that) and a good lineup mixed with some speed and power. Evan White and Mitch Haniger have strong years in my opinion and guys like Crawford and Seager play above their expectations. I see the Mariners at 93-69 winning the division by 5+ games. I get it’s optimistic, I think some experts are writing these guys off too soon. But I could be wrong.. I’m probably wrong actually
BenjiB24
This division is more winnable than it’s been in quite a while. 40+HR for Kyle Lewis. 16+Wins for Marco Gonzales, James Paxton and Justus Sheffield. Alot of these guys are primed for big years
HalosHeavenJJ
Every year Oakland looks to have lost sone key pieces. Every year they win a lot of games.
I’m picking them.
Yankee Clipper
Okay, my inclination and instinctual answer – A’s, clearly. But, at this point, I’ve selected the Angels. They are underrated in my opinion and could put together a decent year, thereby winning the division. I don’t know why, but looking at the rosters, it’s down to those two for me. Of course, the Angels could very well end up in 3rd or 4th and that would come as a surprise either.
Even though I don’t have the Astros, the poll didn’t indicate if the team is with or without their….. “special equipment” so I assumed its without.
Biggio’s 2
They were without their “special equipment” during the 2017 World Series, all but a month if the 2018 season, 2019 season and World Series, and 2020 season + alcs.
Feel free to hate them for cheating through much of the 2017 regular season and a month of 2018, but anything beyond that is misguided.
Biggio’s 2
2017 playoffs*
Halo11Fan
You think they were without their special equipment. What makes you say that.? You believe liars and cheaters….that’s funny.
Yankee Clipper
I’m just kidding, man. I know you guys make excuses every time someone writes, but it’s in jest. In wasn’t even in response to any Astros fan. Look, I disagree that they didn’t use it during the playoffs, and so does nearly every non-Astros fan, player, analyst, and stuffed animal – that’s beside the point.
I don’t think they win the division this year, but if they did, it wouldn’t come as a complete shock either. I believe their time has passed and the Angels’ roster is going to come together.
goastros123
I don’t expect the Astros to win their division. Pitching is a question mark and while their lineup is still formidable, they lost Springer.
Loling @ you
Who cares? (Outside of halo11fan)
Halo11Fan
The clown adds another worthless take.
Hammerin' Hank
Bozomaki strikes again.
609Collectibles
Just have a strange feeling it’s going to be the Angels. Rotation is underrated because they don’t have an ace. Ohtani could break out this year and Trout/Rendon back to back can do damage. Very underrated SS as well.
passed_balls
Underrated doesn’t always pan out
Angels86ed
I think the Angels might surprise folks – especially if Canning breaks out. It’ll be really interesting if Chris Rodríguez can crack the rotation by mid season. If they can sneak into the postseason, anything can happen. But they might be in position next year if they can sign a TOR arm like Scherzer or Thor and once Detmers and Rodríguez are part of the rotation
Halo11Fan
609. I expect Upton to be solid. I expect the starting rotation to be better than most people think. Fowler will stink. I have no idea what Walsh will do, and Ohtani can hit. I expect the Angels ton have a difficult time pitching the 6th through 8th innings, and those innings will decide their season.
DarkSide830
wow, didnt know 26% of the readers here were Halos fans
hllywdjff
This might sound crazy but in about 2 to 3 years the Mariners are going to win that division for the next 5-7 years
DarkSide830
no one dominates a divison that well
hllywdjff
Dodgers have won the NL West for the last eight years in a row so it is possible…
Ace of Diamonds
Mariners will never be the Dodgers
le r.
A’s 95-67
Stros 90-72
Angels 81-81
M’s 75-87
Tex. 70-92
Ace of Diamonds
Angels 97-65
JesusLizard44
Funny Ace I think you meant 65-97
Tony Carbone
Only 2 words needed to describe how the Mariners will fare this year.
Ken Giles.
Does Dipoto get Giles if they are competing this year?
Guyh
Houston Ashtrays, will finish second
GreenWood Porter
They didn’t even mention that the Astros are getting back their unanimous rookie of the year from 2019 back, Yordan Alvarez. They were one game away from reaching the World Series again last year without him. Their lineup is still one of the best in all of MLB.
Ace of Diamonds
The Astros were sub .500 last year. The 60 game season was a joke. The Angels were terrible for the first month just like usual, but they were 4 games over in September. If the season was longer they would caught the leader.
SugaMonkey
Angels to the rest of the division,
“Ohh, why did I have to slap a guy who says suh?”
junkmale
One of these years, Ohtani will stay healthy and win an MVP. Granted, this may just be in OOTP, but it will happen.
tjmacari
I could see that, Ohtani is a freak (in a good way)
colelovesthenats121
I have confidence in the angels this year
Jaxondeats
Angles are a 4th place team
shoewizard
I just mentioned this in the other thread, but BP has the exact same standings order as FG in their projected standings.
BlueSkies_LA
Yeah, it’s kind of funny that the team projected to finish third in these mathematical projections is picked to finish first by MLBTR readers. Hard to beat “how I feel” as a methodology.
CCCTL
It may have more with those projections for the A’s being 10+ games low for the last three years.
BlueSkies_LA
Linkage.
pustule bosey
I think the A’s are going to take it this year but am not sleeping on the angels. Despite all the predictors out there I don’t think the astros will be above 3rd place
tjmacari
My prediction –
Oakland – 93 wins
Houston – 91 wins
Los Angeles – 84 wins
Seattle – 72 wins
Texas – 70 wins
martevious
Seattle could very well have the best starting 5 in the division, before its all said and done.
SwingtheFNbat
I dunno about you, but my crystal ball says the Angels. 😉
halodon
Lots of haters out there.
Angels win the west with 91 wins.
Hecubot
Those projections for the A’s are ridiculous.
This 2021 team is better than last year’s team which won the AL West at a 97 win pace, when almost every regular underperformed (except Grossman, and Murphy better than his predecessor Phegley).
Healthy Chapman, Olson closer to his career performance, Laureano hitting his prime, Murphy putting up 120-130 wRC+ with GG level defense. That’s an incredible core. Then you’ve got healthy [knock wood] Luzardo, Montas and Puk for high ceiling starting, rounded out with Manaea and Fiers (or Daulton Jefferies).
They’ve got high ceiling and depth to absorb injuries. The bullpen will be better than last year (which was already the strength of the team). The rotation will be much better. The defense will be elite, and the offense will be in the top 5 of the AL.
They don’t need a break-out season, they just need their talent to hit their median.
Astros starters are much worse than the Cole/Verlander days. I think they will come in third. I think the Angels with Ohtani and Bundy et al will be the A’s main contender this year. They have the offense, and now they have some of the pitching.
missjill2u
Mariners win it all!
coldgoldenfalstaff
Astros young pitching is the difference, especially if Framber comes back sooner than later. Odorizzi was also a nice addition.
Correa is out to prove he’s worth the big bucks too.
Astros
Angels
Mariners
A’s
Rangers