The Houston Astros will enter 2021 more vulnerable than ever atop the American League West. And yet, they remain atop the division. Or do they? Yesterday, our own Mark Polishuk asked MLBTR readers to predict the division winner, and so far, the Astros have fallen from their perch. Readers are currently projecting the A’s to win the division – though the Astros aren’t far behind.
Astros’ fever may spike as their stars return to health. Alex Bregman and Yordan Álvarez will both make their Grapefruit League debut on Tuesday, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter), which should provide a lift for manager Dusty Baker and company. Álvarez will be closely monitored for most of the season after offseason knee surgery. He’ll be limited to designated hitter duties in 2021. His bat, of course, can be a real difference maker. The 23-year-old owns an absurd .343 ISO though 378 plate appearances.
Bregman’s return to the lineup is no less crucial. Though he was the last arriving of the Astros’ original position player core, he’s grown into the best performer of the bunch. Back-to-back MVP-consideration seasons have launched Bregman into the first tier of MLB superstar. Especially with a roster that’s thinner that in year’s past, the Astros will need Bregman to ramp up to regular season form quickly.
When the season does open, it will be Zack Greinke on the hill. To no one’s surprise, Baker named Greinke their opening day starter, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (via Twitter). Though he was a rotation luxury behind Gerrit Cole and Justin Verlander when he was acquired, Greinke has grown in importance over the past year and a half, not only on the hill, but in the clubhouse and in front of reporters as well. The veteran has a 3.54 ERA/3.02 FIP in 129 2/3 innings over two seasons since joining the Astros.
Elsewhere in the rotation, the Astros are already without Framber Valdez, and his replacement Jake Odorizzi won’t be ready by opening day. Cristian Javier, however, say he will be ready to go, per Sports Director at Fox 26 Mark Berman (via Twitter).
Is the phrase “Astros’ fever may spike” good optics right now?
More like trashcanovirus.
Four years ago
Grow up and let it go
You should probably just get used to everyone hating your team and learn not to take it personally.
Baseballpun is right. XYZ, I don’t know if you’re an Astros fan, but if you are, the cheating was out of our hands and so are people mocking the Astros. We can’t do anything about both. At least Baseballpun isn’t making fun of Astros fans.
Because we know for certain that no one else cheated. Right?
I also can’t judge Jeffrey Dahmer because I don’t know for certain that everybody else has abstained from eating people.
“Because we know for certain that no one else cheated. Right?”
That’s about typical.
every fan hates every other team. nut up.
Yes, yes, let the hate fill within you!
@steve. Agree 100 percent
Relax people, not everything is to be taken seriously or written to cause an offense.
Why dont pitchers who experience extended free agcney periods do the think that Dallas Keuchel did and throw a sim game every 5 days? he was ready for Major League game action within two weeks of signing.
Maybe for fear of an injury before getting signed? I recently posted something similar suggesting teams could have avoided the need for so many pitchers if those on their staff worked out on a consistent basis and through simulated games when there was no action. In the case of non-signed pitchers, an injury could ruin their financial projections.
*threw
Alvarez played Sunday
The reason the Astros are behind the A’s is because they are universally hated and emotions are more prevalent than facts on something like that. It’s just wishful thinking.
Or it could be because the A’s are very good and the Astros rotation is a shell of what it was in 2019. And they lost George Springer.
Ya it’s close but the A’s lost Semien and Hendriks. I think it’s true though that peoples emotions are used when it comes to the Astros instead of their brains.
Well the A’s replaced Hendricks with Rosenthal.
I don’t put too much stock in 2020 but that 2019 Astros team that won 107 games had both Verlander and Cole on it. The 2021 team won’t.
In 2019 they had three elite aces, two of which finished 1st and 2nd in the Cy Young voting. Thinking the team will fall apart without that is indeed wishful thinking; teams RARELY have that kind of talent long-term in their rotation. If having three aces was a requirement to win your division then almost no one ever would. A position-by-position comparison to the rest of the AL West clearly shows them to be the top team on paper. A lot could happen, especially injury-wise as always, but predicting them to fall at this point is clearly based more on emotion than reason or logic.
Elite pine tar is more like it…..
That argument makes no sense. The 2019 had the two best pitchers in the AL – how would losing them NOT result in taking a step back? Did I say the Astros are going to finish in last? Did anybody? The Astros are undeniably worse than they were in 2019. The A’s were already a 97-win team in 2019 and one could argue that they’re as good or better than they were then. Predicting that Houston will finish 2nd is not prioritizing emotion over logic.
Yes! Elite pine tar available only to Brett Strom. He has a deal with Amazon for them to not sell it to anyone else.
And gained Alvarez.
Alvarez played in 2019.
Didn’t in 2020 (except one game) when they were under .500
The A’s won the division in 2020. The intro to this article makes it sound like the Astros are defending a division title. I’ve seen this a fair amount – it seems like some sort of amnesia where a lot of folks can’t believe/ remember that the Astros were under .500 and second in AL West last year.
I’m writing off the entire 2020 “season,” personally. I think the A’s will win the division this year, too, but the fact that the Astros were a game under .500 after two months means virtually nothing.
Exactly – not sure how anyone can base any opinion off of last season. Weren’t the Nationals terrible after 60 games in 2019 and won The Series? Anyone, not basing their opinion off of emotion, would acknowledge the Astros were a better than .500 team in a full season.
Not to sound like a meatball – I know it is low hanging fruit to pick on – but I won’t buy into Bregman as a star until I see him hit like one without the help of a trash can and buzzers.
You mean like in 2019?
2019 is a year that he still may have had help.
100% agree – Houston Astros have cheats up & down the organization. It will take more than a year of drinking to forget that fact. Unless of course you really dont care about cheats then truly the sport of the game is lost. Bergman is a chump much like Braun turned himself into.
Well ARod for example being a world series commentator and being allowed to bid on the purchase of a team would seem to indicate that no one truly cares about cheating.
They didn’t let him win the bid even though his group was in the lead prior to allowing the guy who already had a deal win……its crooked from top to bottom – SMH. The actual bad part is when fans stop caring like voting ‘roids into HoF then the last person needs to turn off the field lights
@coop, where is the evidence they used buzzers? I’d like to read about it. Don’t say Jamboy, that guy is a tool, I’m talking about where was it proven that an Astros player used a buzzer.
We’ve been over this. It has been proven. Carlos Beltran’s fake cousin already said she heard from not-Carlos Beltran that Altuve used a buzzer. Caught red-handed.
twitter.com/patmcafeeshow/status/13544957719246929…
Here ya go coop. Stop drinking the JomBoy KoolAid
Worth noting that both Fangraphs and Baseball Prospectus have the same order in the NL West in their projected standings. Below win totals are the average between the two Websites
Astros- 90.5
Angels- 86
A’s- 83
Mariners- 72.5
Ranger- 69.5
I was surprised to see both systems have the Angels above the A’s.
It’s the same system that has Tampa tanking every time they run simulations. What Oakland and Tampa do to sustain long term success is too difficult to formulate so they always look bad in these forecasts. Then it’s never a surprise when they overachieve. Or frankly if neither team won 80 games- that wouldn’t be too shocking either…..
I agree those two teams especially are difficult to forecast. In fact I have an article going up in a day or two and I wrote the following about the Rays:
” While “Clutch” and one run games are random, the one thing that isn’t random is the Rays always find and develop players that everyone underrates and under project and they employ strategies that give them an edge more than most teams. So if you are looking for an over, they are perhaps a good bet. ”
The same or similar could be said about the A’s
Cheaters.
Cant people just have their own opinion without people from the other side debating why . Astro fans just get over it. Some people think the astros won’t win the division because they lost a good amount of their star players and they got busted cheating and also the athletics are a better team. Period done. Finished
bUt THey onLy tHinK tHAt be-CUZ thEy HaTE uS!!
Hive Mind: What’s the consensus on Bregman? If forced to bet the over or under, which do you take? Here’s the breakeven bet: 280/85/25/85/5
Is he the real deal or was he overtly helped by the cheating scandal?